The Pentagon’s chief strategist is heading to NATO this week to spell out what many European capitals have been quietly dreading: the future U.S. military posture in Europe is under review – likely up for downsizing, and even Europe’s US-supplied nuclear umbrella could be up for review and negotiations.

Defense Department policy chief Elbridge Colby will represent Washington at Thursday’s NATO ministerial, filling in for Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, who is sitting out this round. However, Secretary of State Marco Rubio is set to lead the US side. US Ambassador to NATO Matthew Whitaker said Colby will address among other things “capabilities that may need to be ultimately transitioned out of Europe.”

Colby has long argued that NATO allies must assume the primary responsibility for their own defense, which aligns with President Trump’s priorities – namely that Europe can no longer rely on open-ended American security guarantees, also as Washington aligns toward dominance in the Western hemisphere (Donroe Doctrine).

Much of America’s military presence may soon be on the move. Speaking before a pre-conference audience, US envoy Whitaker already signaled contention. “I completely reject everything I just heard” he said, as Washington is “not trying to dismantle NATO,” but that European allies must take more responsibility.

Europe must grow up, he explained. “When your kids are young, they’re dependent on you. But eventually you expect them to get a job. And so to me, that’s where we are. We still love them. You’re still allies,” Amb. Whitaker said.

While praising allies’ willingness boost military spending to 5%, he assessed that they are being too sluggish in turning this extra defense investment and expenditure into actual military capabilities.

“One of the things that I’ve noticed in my time here in Europe is there is a lot of discussion and not a lot of action,” he emphasized.

He was responding to a fresh annual report produced by the Munich Security Conference (MSC), scheduled formally to take place February 13-15, which stated that “for decades, Europe thrived under an American security umbrella that allowed it to prioritize integration and prosperity over hard power. That era has ended.”

Just days ago, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov spelled out that Moscow has “no intention of attacking Europe” as there is “no reason to do so” – but that the West could expect in the face of any aggression against Russian territory or its interests “a full-fledged military response.”

Wrecking-ball politics the order of the day…

The #MSCreport 2026 is out now! 🐘

The world has entered a period of wrecking-ball politics. More than 80 years after construction began, the US-led post-1945 international order is now
⚠️ Under Destruction.

Read our brand-new Munich Security Report: https://t.co/dErDjv8G4t pic.twitter.com/gC1Zs0Z3OU

— Munich Security Conference (@MunSecConf) February 9, 2026

On the nuclear umbrella issue, Finland’s defense minister told AFP Tuesday that while he welcomes open European dialogue on a stronger regional nuclear deterrence, he admitted it is not realistic “at this point” to replace American nukes.

Defense chief Antti Hakkanen acknowledged, “We fully trust … that the US is fully committed to the nuclear deterrence in NATO” – adding that European countries were “taking the leading role in conventional defense.”

Via Remix News,

Authorities in Germany have uncovered a sophisticated fraud network that allegedly deployed paid operatives to take language and naturalization exams on behalf of migrants, with the fraud taking place on a nationwide scale.

The investigation, centered in Nuremberg, suggests a coordinated effort to bypass residency and citizenship requirements. Notably, potential applicants for citizenship must display a basic understanding of the German language.

Prosecutors say the network functioned by providing substitute test-takers who possessed a high command of the German language. According to investigators, candidates used forged identification documents that displayed the substitute’s photo but contained the personal data of the actual applicant, according to Welt.

Applicants reportedly paid between €2,500 and €6,000 per examination. Since the documents appeared legitimate, “the examiners were thus unable to detect the fraud,” resulting in the issuance of genuine certificates used to obtain residence permits or citizenship.

The Middle Franconia Police Headquarters announced on Monday that two individuals are currently in custody, including a 39-year-old Iraqi man, identified as the primary mediator, who is in pre-trial detention.

Additionally, a 22-year-old German man was arrested in January while actively “trying to take such a language examination.”

Furthermore, the scale of the network was highlighted in December when “10 people were also identified as operatives at a language school in North Rhine-Westphalia while they were taking exams for other schools.”

While the current arrests were made in Bavaria, the “investigations concern the entire federal territory.”

Police noted that while “proceedings for forged language certificates have already been underway in the past,” this specific method of using look-alike deputies represents a significant escalation. Following an initial review of the evidence, Bavarian investigators “assumed that there will be a high double-digit number of further investigations.”

Concerns about the mass naturalization of foreigners have already been raised, with potentially thousands or even theoretically tens of thousands of foreigners using fraud to obtain their citizenship.

In one case, hundreds of forged certificates were found by just one official, who found that these certificates were being sold on a huge scale on TikTok.

Furthermore, many of the fraud cases have likely gone undetected.

The language test required for German citizenship, which must show proficiency in only B1, hardly proves a strong command of the German language either. Nonetheless, there are numerous cases involving migrants paying thousands of euros for a forged certificate or for test takers to take the test for them.

Already, there have been broad concerns about foreign workers in Germany who lack an adequate level of German for their roles as doctors and police officers.

Read more here…

Europe’s flagship sixth-generation fighter project is unraveling fast. Politico Europe days ago observed that the Franco-German-Spanish Future Combat Air System (FCAS) is now “on the verge of collapse” after Dassault and Airbus failed to meet critical deadlines for agreeing on work-sharing arrangements.

The warnings have been building for months, with loud public signaling coming from German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who already conceded that the project is stalled, bluntly admitting there is “no progress” – while French officials also sound increasingly pessimistic, with some privately warning that the manned fighter element of FCAS may already be “dead”.

Some of the key quotes in the Politico piece attempt to strike hopeful note, but sound anything but reassuring: “We are doing everything we can to try and save this program. We’ll see how we can land,” the head of the French arms procurement agency, Patrick Pailloux, was cited in the report as telling the press.

Prior understandings have already broken down, with the report explaining: “The manned fighter has been at the core of the bitter industrial disputes between Dassault and Airbus over leadership, technology, and work-sharing, with little sign of a resolution. Dassault is looking for more control over the development of the Next Generation Fighter (NGF), a key component of the FCAS project.”

And a December deadline to resolve the dispute has come and gone with no resolution. “In Berlin, German officials insist Germany still wants to preserve parts of the project – particularly the joint combat cloud and other shared systems – even if the fighter itself splits into two separate jets,” the Politico report added. 

So the ultra-ambitious project could all ultimately break down over control and intellectual property questions – and shared workflow issues – given Paris is accusing Berlin of trying to “steal know-how” while German officials have grumbled about the project being little more than a costly bailout for France’s defense industry. 

Last year Merz acknowledged, “We are not making any progress with this project. Things cannot continue as they are.” But nothing appears to have changed since then till now.

Most recently, Bloomberg has reported that “FCAS is meant to be operational around 2040, but that deadline may be hard to meet.”

The same report noted another blackeye for EU and inter-NATO unity and cooperation: “The program’s difficulties call into question Europe’s broader ability to form wartime alliances as the region comes under increasing US pressure to spend more on defense and become more self-reliant.”

US Ambassador to NATO Matthew Whitaker referenced this theme of the Trump administration, namely European disunity, in comments in Germany just ahead of the annual Munich Security Conference. Europe must grow up, he explained, and Washington can’t provide the unity and self-reliance it needs. “When your kids are young, they’re dependent on you. But eventually you expect them to get a job. And so to me, that’s where we are. We still love them. You’re still allies,” Amb. Whitaker said.

The FCAS story so far…
Left: plucky France with Macron and Dassault just trying to build a European fighter jet that can launch from an aircraft carrier.
Right: cold-hearted, untrustworthy Germans with their insistence on shared workloads and design decisions destroying FCAS. pic.twitter.com/i80fLUSGUp

— Georg ‘Dr. Maverick’ Löfflmann (@gloefflmann) February 10, 2026

While praising allies’ willingness boost military spending to 5%, he assessed that they are being too sluggish in turning this extra defense investment and expenditure into actual military capabilities.

“One of the things that I’ve noticed in my time here in Europe is there is a lot of discussion and not a lot of action,” he emphasized. The faltering FCAS sixth-generation fighter project could in the end prove yet another costly example of bickering that doesn’t produce tangible results.

Authored by Michael Kern via OilPrice.com,

Germany is proposing that renewable energy developers pay for connecting to the grid in new regulations that would replace the current system of first-come, first-served, Reuters reported on Monday, citing a new draft law it has seen.  

The current congestion in the queue for grid connections and the regulations allowing the first applications to be connected is slowing renewables expansion.  

“Connecting generation, storage, and consumption facilities to the electricity grid is facing ever greater challenges,” says the bill proposed by Germany’s economy and energy ministry, as carried by Reuters. 

“In particular, the ongoing flood of applications from large-scale battery storage systems is overloading grid operators and blocking other grid connection applicants,” according to the bill.  

Apart from having renewable energy developers pay for connecting to the grid, the new regulations would aim to encourage the construction of wind, solar, and battery capacity in areas with easier connections for the grid.  

Despite soaring wind and solar installations in recent years, Germany needs to accelerate capacity additions to meet its own renewable energy targets. 

Europe’s biggest economy has a target to have renewables account for 80% of its electricity generation in 2030.    

In solar, Germany is halfway through reaching its 2030 solar power targets, the German Solar Industry Association (BSW-Solar) said in June last year.

The association, however, warned that solar power expansion has slowed and while Germany is halfway there on its solar goals, the next stage to reaching the 2030 targets cannot be taken for granted.

Germany saw the highest number of onshore wind turbines commissioned in the first half of 2025 for eight years, but the rebound in installations is still off track to reach the official targets, the German wind energy association, Bundesverband WindEnergie (BWE), said in the middle of 2025. 

Despite the jump in wind power installations, Germany still has a gap between the rate of capacity expansion and the legally mandated goals in the Renewable Energy Sources Act, the so-called EEG, BWE president Bärbel Heidebroek said in July.   

President Donald Trump has instructed the CIA and other spy agencies to hand over intelligence related to the 2020 election, a bunch of (presumably panicked) US intelligence officials told Politico and NBC News. 

The records are to be handed over to Kurt Olsen – now a temporary government employee in the White House – who four years ago was involved in the “Stop the Steal” campaign to determine whether Joe Biden won the 2020 election via cheating. 

And you know they’re freaking out by the way they tell us this…

“The administration last year hired Kurt Olsen, who more than five years ago took part in the “Stop the Steal” campaign that promoted baseless claims of widespread voter fraud, to investigate the 2020 election.” –NBC News

…

President Donald Trump has directed top U.S. spy agencies to share sensitive intelligence about the 2020 election with his former campaign lawyer, known for pushing debunked theories of electoral fraud, according to four people with knowledge of the effort. –Politico

Indeed:

“The president has asked Mr. Olsen to look at intelligence related to the 2020 election and the agency is ensuring that he has the access necessary to do his work,” a CIA official told NBC in an emailed statement (probably right after hanging up with the reporter). 

When asked about Olsen’s role, the White House told the outlet “President Trump has the authority to provide access to classified material to individuals as he deems necessary. The entire Trump administration is working together to ensure the integrity of U.S. elections.” 

The admin did not specifically respond to questions about whether Olsen was focusing only on the 2020 election, or possible security threats to future elections. 

The freakout comes after the FBI’s recent search of an elections center in Fulton County, Georgia – where they seized ballots from the 2020 election. 

Now check out the tone over at Politico:

The decision to provide some of the government’s most sensitive spy material to Olsen is unusual, given that he has no known experience working with the U.S. spy community and only joined the Trump administration as a short-term special government employee in October 2025. Special government employees are supposed to work no more than 130 days during any period of 365 days, suggesting his time at the White House could end soon.

The first person said that Olsen has passed a background check and a polygraph exam. It is not clear how close Olsen is to completing his report on the 2020 elections.

Intelligence analysis is supposed to be nonpartisan, and it appears Olsen’s views on electoral fraud in prior U.S. elections are so deeply held that even some people close to the president question his ability to evaluate the material shared with him.

“This guy has no background” in intelligence, said the second person, a close Trump ally. Olsen “will find some super classified report, say it’s evidence of fraud, but really it’s just completely out of context.”

…

Olsen rose to prominence by working closely with Trump to undermine the results of the 2020 election under the slogan “Stop the Steal.” He urged several DOJ officials that year to file a complaint to the Supreme Court scrutinizing Trump’s loss, and even called the president multiple times during the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol

Wow!

About That Raid

As we noted earlier Tuesday, an affidavit filed by FBI Special Agent Hugh Raymond Evans last month, which was unsealed Tuesday, lays out five categories of confirmed problems in Fulton County’s handling of ballots, raising questions that have simmered for over five years since Trump and his allies raised questions about the election in Georgia and other states where irregularities were alleged.

According to a report from Just the News, Evans filed the affidavit last month to establish probable cause for a raid that seized around 700 boxes of ballots from an Atlanta-area storage warehouse. The investigation stemmed from a referral by Kurt Olsen, President Trump’s election integrity czar. Evans interviewed roughly a dozen unnamed witnesses about allegations tied to the contested Georgia race, where Joe Biden edged out Trump by less than 12,000 votes in the official results.

“This warrant application is part of an FBI criminal investigation into whether any of the improprieties were intentional acts that violated federal criminal laws.”

Fulton County admitted it lacks scanned images of all 528,777 ballots counted during the initial count and of the 527,925 ballots tallied during the state’s first recount.

County officials also confirmed that during the recount, some ballots were scanned multiple times. Ballot images obtained through public records requests show identical markings appearing on duplicated images.

During the Risk Limiting Audit, hand counters reported vote totals for batches that didn’t match the actual votes inside those batches.

According to the affidavit, “The State’s Performance Review Board reported that Secretary of State investigators confirmed inaccurate batch tallies from the Risk Limiting Audit.” 

More on that here…

And please consider supporting ZeroHedge with the purchase of some pure colostrum.

Update (1030ET): A man was detained for questioning in the apparent abduction of Nancy Guthrie, the mother of “Today” show co-host Savannah Guthrie, from her home outside of Tucson, Arizona over two weeks ago, several major outlets are reporting tonight.

The man was taken into custody after law enforcement circulated photos of a masked individual outside the 84-year-old Guthrie’s front door the morning she disappeared. Several outlets are also reporting that there was a supposed ransom note received last week demanding payment to a Bitcoin wallet. According to outlet KGUN, a local TV station, the wallet had received a payment from someone for less than $300. 

*UNCONFIRMED REPORTS CIRCULATING ONLINE (so for entertainment purposes only at this time) are suggesting that it might have been an inside job involving a family member. 

*  *  *

The FBI on Tuesday released surveillance footage from a Nest camera showing an armed person at the southern Arizona home of Nancy Guthrie, mother of network TV news anchor Savannah Guthrie. 

Video shared by FBI Director Kash Patel shows a masked person wearing a jacket, gloves, pants and carrying a backpack. The person can be seen obstructing the camera, before walking into the front yard. They then return to the front door with a small flashlight in their mouth before attempting to cover the camera with what appears to be foliage, AZ Family reports.

New images in the search for Nancy Guthrie:

Over the last eight days, the FBI and Pima County Sheriff’s Department have been working closely with our private sector partners to continue to recover any images or video footage from Nancy Guthrie’s home that may have been lost,… pic.twitter.com/z5WLgPtZpT

— FBI Director Kash Patel (@FBIDirectorKash) February 10, 2026

Investigators say the person was armed, as images show what appears to be a holstered firearm on the person’s waistband.

“Over the last eight days, the FBI and Pima County Sheriff’s Department have been working closely with our private sector partners to continue to recover any images or video footage from Nancy Guthrie’s home that may have been lost, corrupted or inaccessible due to a variety of factors, including the removal of recording devices. The video was recovered from residual data located in backend systems,” the Pima County Sheriff’s Department posted in a statement. 

“Working with our partners – as of this [Tuesday] morning, law enforcement has uncovered these previously inaccessible new images showing an armed individual appearing to have tampered with the camera at Nancy Guthrie’s front door the morning of her disappearance,” they added. 

Guthrie was last seen on Jan. 31 after she was dropped off at her home in the Catalina Foothills, and was reported missing the next day after she failed to show up for church. 

According to AZ Family, “In the early morning hours of Feb. 1, her doorbell camera disconnected and her software detected a person on the camera. Her pacemaker app also showed it disconnected from her phone.”

Reported ransom notes concerning Guthrie were sent to several Arizona news stations, including Arizona’s Family sister station, KOLD 13 News. The first note reportedly demanded a “large sum of money” with a deadline set for last Thursday. The second note allegedly contained a Monday deadline at 5 p.m.

A new video plea from Savannah was released hours before the 5 p.m. Monday deadline. The video didn’t mention the alleged ransom; instead, Savannah shared her family still believes their mom is out there and is hearing everyone’s prayers.

A $50,000 reward has been offered for information in the case. 

Authored by George Citroner via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A December study suggested that disruptions in the body’s natural 24-hour cycle, known as circadian rhythm, may increase the risk of developing dementia.

The study, published in Neurology, tracked more than 2,000 adults, with a mean age of 79, using wearable heart monitors, and found that people with irregular sleep-wake patterns faced up to a 50 percent higher risk of developing dementia than those with consistent daily rhythms. Of the participants, 176 were later diagnosed with dementia.

“Changes in circadian rhythms happen with aging, and evidence suggests that circadian rhythm disturbances may be a risk factor for neurodegenerative diseases like dementia,” study author Wendy Wang, of the Peter O’Donnell Jr. School of Public Health at UT Southwestern Medical Center, said in a statement.

3 Types of Unhealthy Sleep Rhythms

Circadian rhythm helps regulate sleep, hormones, body temperature, and digestion. People with a strong, well-aligned circadian rhythm tend to follow consistent sleep and activity patterns, despite seasonal changes or schedule disruptions. Conversely, those with a weaker, fragmented, and delayed rhythm often experience irregular sleep and activity times.

A weaker circadian rhythm means that there is less of a difference between active daytime and restful nighttime. A person with a weaker circadian rhythm may not feel fully awake during the daytime and not sleepy at night.

People with fragmented circadian rhythms may have fragmented wakefulness and sleepiness. They may experience daytime wakefulness and fragmented sleep at night.

Beyond rhythm strength, the researchers found that timing also played a role.

Most people experience their peak circadian activity at midday, but those whose peak activity occurred later in the day—from 2:15 p.m. onward, faced a 45 percent higher risk of dementia than those whose activity peaked earlier, between 1:11 p.m. and 2:14 p.m.

A delayed circadian rhythm peak typically causes being most alert and active late at night, feeling sleepy or waking up late, and having difficulty aligning with conventional daytime schedules.

Seven percent of participants with early activity peaks developed dementia, compared to 10 percent of those with later peaks.

The researchers believe that a later activity peak may indicate a misalignment between the body’s internal clock and environmental cues such as exposure to darkness.

Why Circadian Rhythm Matters for Brain Health

The study found that certain changes in sleep or activity patterns were associated with increased risk of developing dementia. Disruptions and changes to circadian rhythm increased the risk of developing dementia by roughly 19 to 54 percent, according to the findings.

Circadian rhythm disruption can affect health in many ways that could impact cognition, and influences multiple organ systems simultaneously, not just the brain, Dr. Rebecca Spiegel, director of Sleep Neurology at Stony Brook Medicine in New York, and not involved in the study, told The Epoch Times.

“It has been linked to cardiovascular disease, metabolic disorders such as diabetes and obesity, mood disorders, poor immunity, and increased mortality risk,” she noted. “In the elderly, weaker circadian rhythms have also been linked to falls, reduced physical function, and poorer quality of life.”

Wang noted that disruptions in circadian rhythms may alter processes such as inflammation and interfere with sleep, possibly increasing amyloid plaques linked to dementia or reducing amyloid clearance from the brain.

However, it’s important to note that the study did not account for sleep disorders, which could influence the results, and the research shows correlation rather than direct causation.

What Disrupts Your Circadian Rhythm

Dr. William Lu, sleep medicine specialist and medical director at Dreem Health, and not involved in the study, told The Epoch Times that some common factors that can weaken or disrupt a person’s circadian rhythm include:

• Going to bed and waking up at different times each day
• Spending too much time on screens at night
• Not getting enough sunlight in the morning
• Being under consistent stress
• Late-night eating, or caffeine/alcohol intake

“Consistency matters most for maintaining a healthy circadian rhythm. That means going to bed and waking up around the same time every day, even on weekends.”

Limiting screen time and caffeine intake while increasing exposure to natural light is also important, he said. “Additionally, physical activity throughout the day can help.”

Dementia Cases Expected to Spike

Dementia cases are expected to increase sharply in the coming decades, with projections reaching 1 million new cases annually by 2060 if no significant interventions are made.

A “strong association” exists between reduced deep sleep and an increased risk of dementia. “Deep sleep is crucial for the clearing of toxins and memory consolidation, Lu said. “It is unsurprising that a disruption to the circadian rhythm can, in turn, disrupt both metabolic and neurological processes.”

While the connection between sleep and cognitive function is well understood, research into the role of circadian rhythm in dementia is still emerging. Earlier studies have linked sleep patterns and cognitive decline, such as one last year that found night owls may experience faster decline than early risers.

Other research suggests that sleep habits influence dementia risk, such as a 2022 study that found that seniors who nap more than an hour daily have a 40 percent higher risk of Alzheimer’s disease.

Hope for Prevention

Wang expressed optimism about the findings and said they could lead to new preventive strategies. “Future studies should examine the potential role of circadian rhythm interventions, such as light therapy or lifestyle changes, to determine if they may help lower a person’s risk of dementia.”

The UT Southwestern study is important because it linked real-world activity patterns, measured through wearable devices, to future dementia risk in a diverse group of older adults, Spiegel said.

“Although causality cannot be determined from this study, the findings encourage further research into circadian regulation as a potentially modifiable factor in brain health,” she said.

*  *  * 

Please consider supporting ZeroHedge with the purchase of IQ Sleep Formula – which has Tryptophan, Lycium, L-Taurine, L-Theanine, Chinese Skullcap, 5-HTP, Ashwagandha, Chamomile and more. It really does work!

At least 10 people are dead and 25 injured after a mass shooting in northeastern British Columbia, according to police.

Six people were found dead inside Tumbler Ridge Secondary School, one died on the way to the hospital and two more were found dead in a residence.

Police said the suspect was also found dead inside the school from “a self-inflicted injury.”

Police believe they have identified the shooter, but would not be releasing details at this time for privacy reasons, and to protect the integrity of the investigation.

“This was a rapidly evolving and dynamic situation, and the swift co-operation from the school, first responders, and the community played a critical role in our response,” North District Chief Supt. Ken Floyd wrote in a statement.

Tumbler Ridge is one of the most distinct communities in B.C. and is extremely remote: more than 1,100 kilometers (683 miles) northeast of Vancouver by road.

In the late 1970s the population rapidly boomed with the discovery of coal deposits in the area and it became a classic company town throughout the 1980s. A near-collapse followed in the 2000s when those mines shut down.

It was during this time that the community pivoted to tourism, marketing itself as the land of dinosaurs and waterfalls — a place where you can hike to see ancient footprints in the wilderness.

In a statement, the District of Tumbler Ridge said its community experienced a “deeply distressing incident” today and asked residents to rely on official updates from the RCMP and other authorities.

It added that the situation was still unfolding and said additional supports were on their way to assist.

“In the days ahead, we know this will be difficult for many to process,” the statement reads.

“Please check in on one another, lean on available supports, and know that Tumbler Ridge is a strong and caring community. We will get through this together.”

Police said they don’t believe there are any other suspects, or any ongoing risk to the public.

They said they are searching other homes and properties in the community to find anyone else who may be injured or linked to today’s incident, which appears to rank as one of the deadliest mass shootings in Canadian history. 

Authored by Rob Sabo via The Epoch Times,

Several energy companies have announced the closure of some of their refineries in California in recent months, citing the regulatory environment and operational losses.

Multiple experts in the state’s oil and gas industry recently spoke with The Epoch Times about the closures and their potential impacts on fuel prices and fuel availability in the Golden State.

Refinery Closures

Valero Energy Corporation announced in April 2025 that it would shutter its refinery operations in Benicia, in the San Francisco Bay area. The company also said that it had evaluated the refinery assets in Benicia and Wilmington, near the Port of Long Beach, and concluded that the carrying values of both assets were not recoverable.

Valero said it would continue serving the Golden State’s oil needs through existing inventories and oil imports.

The Wilmington refinery produced 15 percent of the asphalt supply for the entire Southern California region and had a capacity of 135,000 barrels per day. The Benicia refinery on the Carquinez Straits of San Francisco Bay, meanwhile, produced as much as 170,000 barrels per day and employed more than 400.

While the Benicia refinery was originally slated to cease production in April 2026, it actually ceased production in late January. The closure comes on the heels of Phillips 66 ending operations at its Los Angeles refineries in the fourth quarter of 2025.

Phillips 66 operated refineries in Wilmington and Carson that distributed fuel throughout California, as well as to Nevada and Arizona. The dual sites spanned 650 acres and employed about 600.

Chevron, meanwhile, announced in August 2024 that it was relocating its headquarters from San Ramon to Houston, Texas. The company had operated in the Golden State since 1879 and employed more than 2,000 people in San Ramon. Its refineries in Richmond and El Segundo supply more than 1,800 retail locations in the state.

Key factors

Michael Mische, a professor at the University of Southern California’s Marshall School of Business, told Siyamak Khorrami, host of The Epoch Times’s “California Insider,” that Valero’s and Chevron had incurred heavy asset write-offs before they made those decisions.

Valero said in the April 2025 announcement that it had written off a combined $1.1 billion of assets in Benicia and Wilmington in the first quarter of the year.

Chevron revealed in a January Securities and Exchange Commission filing that it had recorded after-tax charges of $3.5 billion to $4 billion in the fourth quarter of 2023, including asset write-offs and impairment charges, primarily in California.

“Of course, they vacated California. Their corporate headquarters is now in Houston,” Mische said, referring to Chevron.

In responding to the company’s Benicia refinery-closure decision during an April 2025 earnings call, Valero CEO Lane Riggs cited California’s regulatory environment as the primary reason.

“California has been pursuing policies to move away from fossil fuels for the past 20 years,” he said.

“The consequence is that the regulatory and enforcement environment is the most stringent and difficult in North America.”

Phillips 66 also cited “changes in governmental policies or laws that relate to our operations, including regulations that seek to limit or restrict refining” as a reason for its decision to cease operations in its announcement.

California Gov. Gavin Newsom signed Assembly Bill AB X2-1 on Oct. 14, 2024, which became effective on Jan. 13, 2025. The bill allows the California Energy Commission to regulate refiners by enforcing minimum inventory levels to prevent spikes in price, effectively capping their profit margins.

“That piece of legislation (was) one of the primary last factors that went into decisions to close these refineries down,” Mische said.

Additional regulations enacted in the state have led to increased production and operating costs for oil refiners.

In 2020, Newsom issued an executive order requiring all new passenger vehicles to have zero emissions by 2035. In 2022, the California Air Resources Board (CARB) adopted new regulations to pave the way for the state’s zero-emission standards.

The state’s Cap-and-Invest Program, meanwhile, has a goal of carbon neutrality by 2045 and requires increasingly stricter standards for carbon emissions.

Mische said that without a significant change in policy and stance toward the oil industry, the state may lose another one or two refineries by 2032.

Potential Impact

Mike Ariza, former senior refinery technician and control board supervisor at the Benicia refinery, told Khorrami that Valero’s refinery operations in Benicia were the most complex and efficient in the state.

The refinery produced between 4.5 million and 4.7 million gallons of gasoline per day, as well as about 600,000–700,000 gallons of jet fuel and diesel fuel, he said.

A bad storm or major problem at one of California’s ports could have huge ripple effects across the state’s fuel supply, Ariza said.

“If something like that happens, we will very quickly run out of gasoline,” he said.

“We don’t have a lot of inventory—14 days, we will run out of supplies. Not only will prices go through the roof, but you will end up having shortages.”

Mische said that 85 percent of all light-duty vehicles in California use gasoline or diesel fuel, and airplanes require “jet fuel”—gasoline or diesel fuel specially refined for jet engines.

“These refineries, as they’re shutting down, place greater and greater pressure, not only on prices but on the supply chains themselves,” he said. “It’s quite possible that you’ll have supply disruptions.”

Californians pay the second-highest average gas prices in the United States, behind Hawaii. Gasoline averaged $4.38 a gallon on Jan. 4, the American Automobile Association reported. The national average was $2.88 per gallon. Fuel prices in remote Mono County along the Eastern Sierra Nevada mountains averaged $5.56 per gallon.

Meanwhile, California Assembly member Stan Ellis, a Republican representing Kern and Tulare counties, expressed concerns about the impact of Valero’s refinery closure on the U.S. military installations in the state.

“Forty-some bases, counting National Guard and … the Marines, and all the bases, naval stations, in California. Where are they going to get their fuel?” he said.

A November 2025 Institute for Energy Research (IER) report warned that several U.S. military installations in California could face jet fuel supply challenges if the state’s refinery capacity declines due to closures.

The state has the nation’s largest concentration of military personnel and national security activity.

According to a 2022 California Research Bureau report, California had more than 30 military installations, including facilities for the Army, Navy, Air Force, Coast Guard, and National Guard.

Ellis said India is a supplier of California’s imported crude, but there are few options to refine it outside of the state.

“This is serious business, and these are facts,” he said. “We’re simply trying to bring awareness to the fact that we have an issue and we need to address it.”

He calls for existing oil fields to be exempt from the California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA), passed in 1970, which requires environmental review and public disclosure for projects that could significantly impact the environment, including refineries, roads, and large buildings.

Separately, Mische is calling on Congress to repeal or modify California’s restrictive policies through the legislative process to support refiners.

“That probably won’t be very successful, but nonetheless, we’re going to give it a good shot this legislative session,” he said.