After two mixed coupon auctions this week, including a subpar 3Y and a strong 10Y, moments ago the Treasury concluded the week’s coupon issuance when it sold $22BN in 30Y bonds in another solid auction. 

The paper priced at a high yield of 4.871%, above the 4.750% in February and the highest since last July’s 4.889%. It also stopped through the When Issued 4.878% by 0.7bps, the 4th consecutive stop through in a row.

The bid to cover was 2.452, down from 2.662 but above the recent average of 2.452.

The internals were a tad weaker, with Indirects buying 63.4% of the auction, down from 69.9% in February and below the six-auction average of 66.6%. Directs took down 27.2%, higher than the average 23.0%, and Dealers were left with 9.36%, up from last month’s record low 5.88% but below the recent average 10.4%.

Overall, this was a solid if not stellar 30Y auction, which considering the mauling the long-end has been subjected to – note the 10Y is now trading at 4.24%, up sharply from 3.97% two weeks ago – it was a very respectable result.

Authored by Matt Carallo via BitcoinMagazine.com,

For all of bitcoin’s life, it has been fighting an uphill battle against fiat currencies that mostly do the job of being money. Obviously, fiat has plenty of issues, but when it comes to impacts immediately visible to everyday people in much of the world, bitcoin isn’t 10x better. Some may even conclude that they would prefer a system based on neutral money to government-rigged ones, but entrenched fiat systems work well enough that few want to deal with the hassle of constant conversion. With the rapid growth in agents’ capabilities, a huge gap has opened that bitcoin has a shot at filling. Instead of competing with entrenched interests as you would with fiat, in the agentic payments field, everyone is starting from zero.

In a recent post on Spiral’s Substack, I pointed out that all of the payment standards being developed for AI agents haven’t yet gotten off the ground. Credit cards won’t work in a world where automated tooling is making purchases. The web is filled with captchas and heavy investments in blocking bots, rather than enabling their use for commerce. Even if they offered payment methods that agents could use, few merchants today have websites that agents can reasonably navigate. No matter what payment method agents ultimately use, it will require every merchant to adapt to a new world.

With no one company owning both the agent and merchant sides of the marketplace, this leaves a wide-open opportunity where it’s still anyone’s game. Better yet, with the popularity of open-source agents today, no company owns much of the purchasing side at all! If the bitcoin community plays its cards right, there’s a good shot at a large part of the future of commerce flowing over open rails not controlled by any single company.

There’s still a lot to build, however, and nearly every payments industry player is trying to position itself to take the crown. Visa is working on an “Intelligent Commerce” product, OpenAI and Stripe announced the Agentic Commerce Protocol (ACP), Google announced AP2 and Coinbase announced an extension of it for crypto – x402. The bitcoin community’s lack of central planning makes responding with their own options more chaotic and harder to follow, but that’s also its strength: lots of people trying lots of different approaches to achieve the same goal are more likely to succeed than a single, focused approach that might be wrong.

With Lightning surpassing a billion dollars in monthly transactions and Square enabling Lightning for its in-person merchants, it seems the technology is finally here that will let bitcoin cross the chasm and become everyday money. Some ideological merchants have been accepting bitcoin for years, and as we continue to integrate bitcoin wallets into agents, we’ll create yet more reasons for every merchant that wants to sell things to join in. But for that to work, bitcoiners have to step up and use the tools at their disposal. If people aren’t trying to buy things with bitcoin, merchants won’t care.

Luckily, these days, you don’t need code to build tools that find merchants accepting bitcoin payments. You don’t even have to sell your stack to buy things with bitcoin. Install an agent, give it a wallet, give it some bitcoin, and tell it to go buy your monthly beef tallow subscription. Tell it to email merchants it wants to buy from and ask them to support bitcoin. Point it to the Bitcoin Merchant Community and have it explain to any merchant it comes across that it wants to pay them without Visa taking a cut but wasn’t able to.

Thanks to extensive existing work, bitcoin is already one of the best ways to enable automated online commerce. Instead of merchants having to fill their sites with captchas to prevent bots from using stolen credit cards and dealing with chargebacks, many bitcoin payment processors can provide merchants with local currency within a day. Instead of being exposed to the risk that an operator’s single private key could seize their stablecoins, merchants can choose from many payment processors, whether foreign or domestic. This competition drives down fees and means we’re not building new payment rails on a platform that will inevitably seek higher rents once its dominance is cemented.

These issues aren’t top of mind for most, but we must get the new rails right. Stablecoins look great at first glance, but moving to a world where one company (Coinbase) owns both the platform (Base) and earns all the interest on the currency’s float (USDC) where payments are made is not a recipe for long-term success. Once everyone is locked into using one payment method, switching away as the operator increases fees won’t be practical. It doesn’t matter whether the protocol agents use to communicate with merchants is based on some “open standard.” If the vast majority of agents have funds on only one platform and the vast majority of merchants accept funds on only one platform, switching will be impossible.

While bitcoin has come a long way on its journey to becoming a reserve asset, it is only beginning its path towards everyday money. Bitcoin reaching escape velocity on the first does not imply that the second is guaranteed; in fact, far from it. With so much competition from every payments industry player, not to mention stablecoins, there’s a lot of outreach and work to be done to build payment momentum. Still, we can’t let this opportunity pass us by. If you believe commerce should happen on neutral money rather than corporate gatekeepers, it’s time to get to work.

By Michael Every of Rabobank

The only way out of this crisis is through

We warned 2026 would tell 2025, which revolved around tariffs, ‘Hold my beer’: yesterday, the US launched two new Section 301 trade investigations, and it hardly registered in the headlines even if it could lead to higher, court-immune US tariffs this summer vs China, the EU, India, Japan, South Korea, Mexico, Taiwan, Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, Cambodia, Singapore, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Switzerland, and Norway.

The focus is instead on Iran and Hormuz, as Brent oil tests towards $100 a barrel this morning. As also warned, things are going to escalate before any de-escalation on those fronts. Ignore that “There’s “practically nothing left” to target in Iran”; balance news that US intelligence says Iran’s government is not at risk of collapse with reports suggesting potential cracks forming in it; and above all heed our underlying geopolitical logic, echoed in the Wall Street Journal, that ‘Ending Iran War Quickly Carries Big Risks for the US and Allies’ because “Leaving the regime undefeated could motivate Tehran to develop nuclear weapons and leave it in control of much of the world’s energy flows.” That’s why constant talk of TACO is likely wrong, and both sides are escalating.

The Iranians hit three ships in Hormuz yesterday, as Tehran warned the world to get ready for $200 oil while boasting of new underwater anti-ship weapons. It also struck two oil tankers at port in Iraq, which has seen those key facilities taken out of action. That means another immediate drop in global oil supply while expanding the field of danger for oil flows far wider than Hormuz: could the Saudi Red Sea pipeline to Yanbu be targeted too, making everything exponentially worse? Meanwhile, Iran is able to get its oil out of Hormuz. Tehran also expanded the war into the cybersphere in hacking a US company, and the FBI warned Iranian drones could even hit California’s coast(!)

The US bombed harder and warned Iranian ports are targets if the military uses them. Impotently, the UN Security Council demanded Iran halt attacks on Gulf states; somewhat less so, perhaps, G7 leaders agreed to examine the option of escorting ships to navigate freely through Hormuz – yet that would drag all of them into a shooting war with Iran. (It also comes just after von der Leyen was forced to walk back suggestions that the EU should sometimes look to its own self-interest, rather than just following the letter of international law, if it wants to be a geopolitical actor.) Elsewhere, after Hezbollah and Iran attacked Israel jointly, the IDF pounded Beirut, warned parts of it will ‘look like Gaza’ if such strikes don’t stop, and ordered reinforcements north for a potential broader invasion of Lebanon.

Against this, the IEA oversaw a record release of oil reserves. However, that flow vs the lack of physical supply in Asia already looked like a plaster on a shotgun wound, to quote our energy analyst Joe DeLaura before Iraqi oil ports were taken offline, which is another cartridge fired into the same injury. Indeed, Bloomberg reports some refineries are turning down available oil because they are forced to pay a huge premium over ‘market’ rates; Australia’s top fuel sellers are halting spot sales on tight supply and are only dealing with regular customers; freight rates are sky-rocketing, e.g., a South Indian firm has seen quoted air-freight costs double, while containers via ship have jumped 630% and for refrigeration by 900%, with real fears of no bunker fuel ahead. South Korea is warning that without helium supplies, it won’t be able to keep making semiconductors – the same is true for all global producers outside the US. 

Moreover, Chris Cook, a former regulator and director of the International Petroleum Exchange, is deeply sceptical about the huge plunge in oil prices on Monday that reversed the earlier record spike. He posts: “This episode is a macro-market ‘goose’/manipulation –an inverse April 2020– facilitated by the smartest guys in the room and financed (Fed liquidity) & funded (China Treasury collateral) by the same state actors. Ends middlemen era & begins #EnergyDominance paradigm.”

As Joe (on oil) and Florence Schmit (on LNG) note in their latest note on the Iran crisis: “We suspect that the $120 mark will be retested again if the SPR barrel releases are debated over for some time and not implemented immediately while the conflict drags on with no outlet for energy supplies. Our current base case going forward is as follows: we expect that the Strait will remain fully closed through the end of March. We believe that April, May, and June will see the slow return of tankers to the world market via the US insurance guarantees plus US naval escorts of some kind.” And perhaps with G7 help – though that remains to be seen.

In short, the only way out of this crisis is through. Through Hormuz. Through Iranian resistance. Through violence. Anything that happens in the financial, not the physical, space is ultimately irrelevant vs. that dynamic.   

Meanwhile, the Japanese press underlines that China’s Xi is torn between his long ties with the Khameneis and US relations. Indeed, we are approaching a critical tipping point. Will China, looking to the upcoming Xi-Trump meeting, help the US to resolve this crisis via pressure on Iran, even if it means that it loses Tehran as a regional ally – and for what geopolitical quid pro quo? Or will it back the regime, along with Moscow, and escalate across different dimensions and geographies?

On that note, amongst a multiplicity of factors, consider that while China has stocks of key goods and Iranian oil can still flow to China for now, helium, sulphur, and fertiliser can’t, and China can’t keep exporting to the rest of the world (excluding the US) if it’s all sucked into an economic crisis. Beijing also prizes stability. Yet to say there’s a lot riding on the US-China angle, which most commentators have belatedly explained this Iran war is all about, is an understatement.

Yet there are other things worth noting today – really:

Ukraine has reached a milestone: making ‘China-free’ drones. It’s now supplying anti-drone tech and know-how to the Gulf. That shows how supply chains can shift if one wants, and how an understanding of how to use, and resist, applied violence is key to success in the current world order. Indeed, Zelenskyy just told Trump, via Politico, to put more pressure on Putin, ‘not on me’.

In France, the far-right presidential candidate Bardella’s main rival, former PM Édouard Philippe, risks crashing out of 2027 race if he loses an upcoming local election to a Communist challenger, which, following local election results in Germany, says a lot about political polarisation and rules-based orders even before we get any fat tail inflation risks from the current Iran crisis.

And traditionally free-market Hong Kong now has its first 5-year plan… to develop its role as a global financial hub.

*  *  * FLASH SALE ON BRAIN RESCUE! Save up to 40%. 

A foreign hacker broke into a server at the FBI’s New York Field Office and ‘compromised files relating to the FBI’s investigation of the late sex offender Jeffrey Epstein’ in 2023, Reuters reports. 

According to the FBI, the intrusion was an “isolated” cyber incident – though not to be confused with a different cybersecurity oncident involving a sensitive internal network used to manage wiretaps and FISA warrants. 

“The FBI restricted access to the malicious actor and rectified the network. The investigation remains ongoing, so we do not have further comments to provide at this time,” the agency said in a statement. 

Reuters‘ source claimed that the intrusion ‘appeared’ to be carried out by an individual cybercriminal as opposed to a foreign government (source: trust us bro, we’re here to help). 

The New Hack

The official story: The hack occurred after a server at the Child Exploitation Forensic Lab in the FBI’s NY Field Office was inadvertently left vulnerable by Special Agent Aaron Spivack – who was attempting to figure out how to handle digital evidence within the bureau’s system. 

A timeline written by Spivack and included in the large cache of Epstein documents released earlier this year said the break-in happened ​on February 12, 2023. It was discovered the following day when Spivack turned on his computer and discovered a text file warning him that his network had been compromised, according to that document.

Further investigation turned up traces ‌of unusual activity ⁠on the server, the document said, adding that the activity “included combing through certain files pertaining to the Epstein investigation.” –Reuters

The report does not say which specific files were accessed, whether the hacker actually downloaded anything, or who the hacker was, nor could Reuters determine what overlap, if any, the affected files had with the recent DOJ Epstein file drops.

The hacker expressed ‘disgust at the presence of child abuse images on the device and left a message threatening to turn its owner over to the FBI,’ not realizing that they had accessed the actual FBI. They eventually convinced the hacker, who joined a video chat where they flashed their law enforcement credentials in front of a web camera. 

Spivak says he’s being made “a scapegoat for the intrusion,” and that conflicting FBI policies and poor guidance around informational technology were to blame.  

Interestingly, Spivak was mentioned in an Epstein files email from after the financier’s death, which was sent to multiple recipients. In, someone says:

Hi team,

Aaron Spivak from the FBI (cc’d) has a new file for the Maxwell case that he needs to send to us. Would one of you please coordinate with him to get it via USAfx, then let me know when we have it?

Thanks so much,

EFTA00154980

The FBI breach was first reported by CNN and Reuters on February 17, however the Epstein connection was made by the French magazine Marianne. 

Epstein, who was recording his many ‘guests’ according to photos and testimony, pleaded guilty in 2008 to soliciting sex from an underage girl, and was later found dead in his jail cell in 2019 after his prison guard googled him shortly before he was found, after depositing so much cash in her bank account that the bank filed suspicious activity reports. Then there was that mysterious 4chan post 38 minutes before Epstein’s death had been officially announced – not only announcing the death, but suggesting that Epstein was ‘switched out.’ 

There are thousands of ships in the global oil tanker fleet, by some estimates nearly as many as 9000 (and that excludes sanctions vessels). Just a fraction of these are either waiting to enter the blockaded straits of hormuz, or to leave it. 

By contrast, the global LNG fleet is a tiny fraction, and now most of it is stuck inside the Persian Gulf. 

According to the WSJ, at least 20 LNG carriers a bout half the available global fleet – are trapped in the Persian Gulf, with daily freight costs soaring as demand from Asia surges, according to ship brokers. Bloomberg lists the known LNG tankers which are currently transmitting their positions as follows:

1. Al Rayyan
2. Al Kharaitiyat
3. Umm Al Amad
4. Lebrethah
5. Gaslog Skagen
6. Sohar Lng
7. Disha
8. Al Daayen
9. Mubaraz
10. Al Sahla
11. Rasheeda
12. Patris
13. Seapeak Bahrain
14. Fuwairit
15. Mihzem
16. Mraikh
17. Al Ghashamiya

Most are located just off the UAE coastline:

“The situation is dire and will have a lasting impact on the market, regardless of how quickly the conflict ends,” Kostas Karathanos, the chief operating officer of Athens-based Gaslog, which operates 34 gas carriers, told The Wall Street Journal.

Some 20% of global LNG exports come from Gulf countries. At the moment, however, only a handful of ships can get through the Strait of Hormuz, and production facilities like those operated by QatarEnergy have been attacked and have stopped production.

Ship brokers said the 20 ships trapped in the Persian Gulf make up nearly half of all LNG ships currently available for charter, with daily rates rising to more than $200,000 from less than $98,000 before the start of the Iran hostilities.

Energy traders expect LNG prices to rise by early next week, adding to this week’s 40% rise in Asia and Europe. “The effect on LNG shipping will outlast the conflict for a few months,” Karathanos said.

Amid the scramble to procure LNG, more shipments bound for Europe are diverting to Asia. At least nine cargoes initially headed to Europe have changed course to Asia since the start of the fighting, according to ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg, with the trend accelerating in recent days. A buffer of spare supply is quickly drying up, threatening more competition and higher prices for both regions.

Adding to the turmoil, LNG suppliers, including Shell Plc, are declaring force majeure for customers across Asia due to halted flows from the Middle East, according to people with knowledge of the matter. This illustrates a growing ripple effect throughout the global gas market.

With virtually no available tankers to transport cargoes, Asian buyers of LNG are preparing for the war in the Middle East to disrupt deliveries for months, Bloomberg reports. 

Companies in Thailand are looking to buy LNG cargoes for delivery through May, according to traders with knowledge of the matter.  Bangladesh bought shipments for April, and is considering procuring fuel for May onward as well, the traders said. Major buyers in Taiwan and South Korea are also preparing to purchase more supply for those two months.

The moves demonstrate that Asia’s importers aren’t relying on a swift resolution to the US-Israeli war against Iran, and that the outage in Qatar, which supplies 20% of the world’s LNG. is expected to be prolonged. The longer the plant is shuttered, the worse the supply shock as there’s no alternative route to export the fuel, nor spare capacity elsewhere to cover the lost output.

Companies need to make contingency plans to prepare for a 2 to 4 months disruption, Dai Jiaquan, chief economist at CNPC Economics and Technology Research Institute, said at a BloombergNEF Summit in Beijing on Thursday.

Qatar shut the Ras Laffan export facility last week after an Iranian drone strike, upending the market and sending the price of gas in Europe and Asia soaring. A number of companies, including Shell Plc, have declared force majeure on their shipments of Qatari LNG to customers in Asia.

At least nine LNG shipments bound for Europe have rerouted to Asia since the fighting began, according to ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg, after Asian buyers offered higher rates than their rivals in Europe.

Meanwhile, Taiwan – which desperately needs LNG for conversion into helium, a critical component to to make Taiwan Semi’s chips – has started securing alternative LNG for May, cabinet spokesperson Michelle Lee said at a briefing in Taipei on Thursday. The island has fully secured supply for March and April, Lee added.

India, which sources about half its LNG from Qatar, has been scrambling to procure alternative shipments for immediate delivery, traders said. Gail India Ltd. was able to book an LNG cargo for March on Tuesday after a few failed attempts, while others are still looking, they said.

Iran launched another round of overnight strikes on tankers and Gulf energy infrastructure, sending Brent crude back above $101/bbl and sparking fears that chaos in the Middle East has triggered what the IEA warned could be the largest-ever supply disruption in the history of the global oil market.

“The war in the Middle East is creating the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market,” the IEA said on Wednesday.

With the record release of SPRs by IEA members announced on Wednesday, failing to halt Brent from re-entering triple-digit territory, Denmark’s energy minister issued a dire warning to citizens across the Scandinavian country, urging them to immediately conserve fuel and electricity.

“What the Danes should please, please, please do is, if there is any energy consumption that you can do without—if it is not strictly necessary to drive the car—then don’t do it,” Lars Aagaard, Denmark’s minister for climate, energy, and utilities, told local broadcaster DR in an interview earlier today, quoted by CNBC. 

Aagaard said energy shock has driven the country to rely on its oil reserves amid “towering oil prices,” with no end to the conflict in sight.

We detailed the overnight chaos across the Gulf region in our geopolitical wrap titled, “Sixth Ship Struck: Oil Tops $100 As Tanker Attacks Escalate Hours After Trump’s ‘We Won.'”

“Firstly, it can be felt in the private wallet, and secondly, it can help stretch our reserves so that they last longer,” Aagaard said.

Related:

• These EM Countries Face Greatest Risk If Energy Shock Spreads

Energy conservation warnings have also emerged in the U.K., Vietnam, and the Philippines as governments and industry groups try to curb fuel demand and protect domestic reserves to weather the energy crisis.

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

“Enough is enough.” With those words, Senator Bernie Sanders (I., Vt) launched a push to impose a 5% annual wealth tax on America’s billionaires. With Rep. Ro Khanna (D., Cal.), the legislation, “Make Billionaires Pay Their Fair Share Act,” echoes the growing “eat-the-rich” mantra on the left — seeking to replicate a disastrous push in California that has led to an exodus from that state and an estimated loss of $2 trillion in taxable assets.

It is also flagrantly unconstitutional.

Under the plan, Congress would target 938 billionaires to tap them for $4.4 trillion. That money would then be redistributed as a $3,000 direct payment to every man, woman, and child in a household making $150,000 or less – $12,000 for a family of four.

The timing of the move is telling. Not only is it calculated before the midterm elections, in which the Democrats hope to retake power, but it follows the push by California Democrats and unions to impose a similar wealth tax in that state.

Khanna, who represents Silicon Valley, has supported the state law, which includes a ruinous provision for startup entrepreneurs. The law would not only be retroactive to try to trap wealthy taxpayers who have fled the state, but also base wealth calculations on the voting shares of corporate executives. Often, with start-ups, entrepreneurs hold greater voting shares than actual ownership. However, just in case they need more incentive to leave the state, they will be taxed as if their voting shares represented actual wealth.

The practical problem is that the wealthy, like their wealth, are mobile. As a result, many are fleeing California. So now Khanna is joining with the nation’s leading Democratic Socialists to ensure there is nowhere to hide in the United States.  For billionaires in California, they could be double-tapped for ten percent of their wealth.

It has long been the dream of the far left. Years ago, Sen. Elizabeth Warren delighted Democratic voters in her run for the presidency by telling the rich she was coming after “your Rembrandts, your stock portfolio, your diamonds and your yachts.” In one debate, she dramatically rubbed her hands together after saying she would take some of the wealth of fellow candidate John Delaney, a self-made millionaire.

In my book, “Rage and the Republic: The Unfinished Story of the American Revolution,” I discuss the growing threat of “economic factionalism” as politicians fuel rage against the wealthy based on the false premise that they are not “paying their fair share.” While there are good-faith arguments for adjusting tax burdens to address budget demands, the top 1 percent pays more taxes than the bottom 90 percent combined.

There is little reason to believe that a wealth tax targeting billionaires will not, if upheld, be later extended to lower tax brackets, starting with multimillionaires. That is the signature of economic factionalism, which feeds an insatiable appetite for greater wealth seizure.

The Sanders-Khanna plan is notable in its express commitment to direct wealth redistribution. It also explains why the left has made the packing of the Supreme Court a priority. As Harvard professor Michael Klarman explained years ago, the radical agenda to change the system to guarantee Republicans “will never win another election” requires control of the Supreme Court to uphold such measures.

The problem is that the Constitution bars the implementation of such a federal wealth tax. When the 16th Amendment was ratified, it allowed for federal income taxes, and only income taxes: “The Congress shall have power to lay and collect taxes on incomes, from whatever source derived, without apportionment among the several States, and without regard to any census or enumeration.”

The effort to expand federal taxation beyond income taxes will require either a constitutional amendment or an enabling, packed Court.

Nevertheless, these politicians will continue to dangle wealth distribution before voters. They will demonize figures like Mark Zuckerberg and Elon Musk for their wealth while ignoring that these same figures are wealth and job creators, driving our economic growth. Instead, Sanders declared that “Billionaires cannot have it all.”

The irony of Rep. Khanna (who has been floating a run for President in 2028) turning on his own constituents in Silicon Valley underscores the appeal of wealth-redistribution campaigns. He is turning the very heart of his state’s economic growth as state deficits and out-of-state migration increase.

For Sanders, the legislation is a key moment to advance his long-standing socialist agenda. He declared the beginning of the end of “unprecedented income and wealth inequality” in the United States through such redistribution. The stated objective of erasing wealth inequality highlights how this is just the start and the end of wealth taxation.

As discussed in Rage and the Republic, none of this is new. Countries like France previously targeted the wealthy, triggering an exodus of taxpayers and their businesses from the country. It had to reverse its policy as the economy collapsed.

Of course, many young people have no memory of such failures in the 20th Century. Instead, they are drawn to the very same soundbites used in France and Great Britain before disastrous experiments with socialism. With no experience with socialist economies, figures like socialist mayor Zohran Mamdani can entice voters to “the warmth of collectivism.”

There are legitimate concerns over the glaring and growing wealth gap in the United States. However, a wealth tax is neither a constitutional nor a practical way of addressing the problem.

Jonathan Turley is a law professor and the author of the New York Times bestselling “Rage and the Republic: The Unfinished Story of the American Revolution.”

Summary

• Shipping turmoil escalates as multiple vessels (at least six) struck overnight

• Brent crude oil prices top $100

• Dubai suffers significant drone attacks

• Northern Israel hammered by Hezbollah, “largest wave” of missiles since war began

• IDF says it struck key Iranian nuclear development site

• US Intel assesses Iranian regime remains intact

• Oman port operations halted

• Trump proclaims “we won”

*  *  *

Brent crude futures in Asian trading jumped above $101/bbl overnight, despite news of a planned record emergency SPR release by the International Energy Agency’s 32 member countries, in an effort aimed at capping triple-digit oil prices.

Today’s focus is on reports that IRGC forces struck two foreign oil tankers in the Gulf area, bringing the total to six vessels hit over the past 24 hours. Iranian kamikaze drones also struck an energy export hub in Oman, while IRGC naval mine threats in the Strait of Hormuz soared by midweek.

The Wall Street Journal reported that two oil tankers were struck in Iraqi waters. The U.K. maritime security agency UKMTO also said a containership was hit off the coast of Dubai, adding to earlier reports that three cargo vessels were struck around the Strait of Hormuz area. Also worth recalling is the dramatic video from yesterday showing an IRGC drone slamming into a critical tank farm in Oman.

Video footage from the deck of a Chinese cargo ship which allegedly shows the moment an Iranian one-way attack drone, a Shahed-136, struck an oil tank earlier today at the MINA Petroleum Facility on the Port of Salalh in Oman. pic.twitter.com/45KGfrjYak

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) March 11, 2026

The market reaction to the overnight hostilities, as Operation Epic Fury rages on this week and IRGC forces lob missiles and bombs at Gulf states, was a surge in Brent crude futures to the $101 handle.

Goldman’s Rich Privorotsky on the overnight energy market moves: 

A series of attacks across the Gulf has sent oil up nearly another 10% (fading to up 5%), with Brent back briefly through the $100 level. The move in products looks even more acute, with distillates leading. Quite telling yesterday that, after yet another Whitehouse jawbone and the IEA’s record reserve release announcement, oil still failed to come in meaningfully. Overnight  Reuters reported, “Iran has laid about a dozen mines in Strait of Hormuz, sources say” … if that is confirmed it’s not quickly reversible.

 Goldman expects longer disruptions on the Hormuz chokepoint:

Here’s where things get even more complicated: Six commercial vessels and oil infrastructure in the Gulf area were hit in IRGC strikes, and attention is now shifting to another critical maritime chokepoint.

Overnight, Iran’s semi-official Fars News Agency warned that the Houthis in Yemen and other Iran-backed groups could move to shut the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at the southern tip of the Arabian Peninsula.

The overnight chaos sent Brent crude back over $101/bbl, but it has since fallen to $96/bbl by 0630 ET. This comes after the IEA’s 32 member countries agreed on a “record” 400 million barrel release to cap energy prices. U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright announced that the U.S. will contribute 172 million barrels. As we explained to readers on Wednesday, this SPR dump is likely to have only a minimal impact.

Meanwhile, President Donald Trump told supporters in Kentucky last night that Operation Epic Fury was effectively over almost as soon as it began. “It’s just a question of when—when do we stop?” he said.

“Let me say we’ve won. You know, you never like to say too early you won. We won. We won, in the first hour it was over, but we won,” Trump said.

He added, “We don’t want to leave early, do we? We’ve got to finish the job.”

NOW – Trump declares “we’ve won” the Iran War. pic.twitter.com/vx0J9Z9SJr

— Disclose.tv (@disclosetv) March 11, 2026

It is clear that U.S.-Israeli operations have dealt a major blow to the IRGC’s conventional military capabilities, but the lingering threat will be asymmetric warfare, including drone attacks, naval mines, the potential sabotage of undersea cables, and a wide range of other low-cost, high-disruption weapons.

What’s important from the overnight (courtesy of Bloomberg):

Energy Market

• The Iran war is causing the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market, hitting 7.5% of global supply and an even bigger share of exports

• Oil prices surged above $100 a barrel as Iran escalated attacks on Dubai and shipping assets

• IEA members agreed to release an unprecedented 400 million barrels from emergency reserves to calm the market

IRGC Military Actions

• Iran escalated attacks on parts of Dubai with missile alerts and a drone that fell on a building in Creek Harbour on Wednesday night

• Iran says it maintains control over the strategic Strait of Hormuz and claims it carried out strikes on Israeli military and intelligence facilities

• Iran’s military announced the policy of reciprocal strikes has ended, stating, ‘from now on, our policy will be strike after strike’

• More than 2,100 Shahed-136 weapons have been fired so far, damaging oil infrastructure, shutting airports and destroying military hardware

US Security Warnings

• The US State Department warned that Iran and affiliated groups could be planning attacks on oil infrastructure owned by the United States in Iraq

• US Central Command warned that Iran is using civilian ports along the Strait of Hormuz for military operations, making them legitimate targets

• California Governor Newsom said he’s aware of potential drone strikes in California after FBI warnings that Iran has allegedly considered launching offensive drones against the West Coast

 Economic Impact

• Goldman Sachs and Citigroup told staffers in Dubai to stay away from their offices amid Iran threats

• On the Beach suspended its full-year guidance due to a ‘significant slowdown’ in demand following the Middle East conflict, with shares dropping as much as 15%

• Chinese oil refiners have begun canceling agreed refined fuel export cargoes as Beijing tightens curbs to cope with the war’s impact

Diplomatic Developments

• Iran has told regional intermediaries that for a ceasefire, the US must guarantee that neither it nor Israel will strike the country in the future

• A former IRGC chief said Iran would agree to no ceasefire until the country reaches a ‘definite outcome’

• The UN Security Council approved a resolution condemning Iran’s attacks on its Gulf neighbors including Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE and Jordan

Related energy market reads:

• Oil “VIX” At 121 — Markets Aren’t Pricing De-Escalation

• Oil Volatility Is Exploding — And Something Is Starting To Break

• IEA Agrees To Release Record 400 Million Barrels From Emergency Stockpiles: Here’s Why This Will Have Little Impact

Is it too early for Trump to be calling a “win” when asymmetric warfare is still a very big threat and will be lingering for many weeks, if not months? As one pundit has pointed out: “Endurance regimes do not need clean victory to change the game. They only need to survive the shock while making the old equilibrium too costly for their adversaries to restore.”

The U.S. military’s reliance on Chinese rare-earth minerals is emerging as a strategic vulnerability as Washington’s conflict with Iran unfolds and President Donald Trump prepares for a closely watched visit to Beijing later this month.

US officials and analysts say the war has intensified concerns about supply chains for the specialized minerals used in advanced weapons systems, SCMP reports. According to people familiar with the issue, the U.S. may have only about two months of rare-earth inventories remaining, raising questions about how long current military operations could be sustained if access to Chinese supplies were disrupted.

As we noted in 2023, former Raytheon CEO Greg Hayes admitted that Beijing effectively has the US military’s supply chain by the balls thanks to its reliance on rare earths and other materials which come from, or are processed in, China.

According to Hayes, Raytheon has “several thousand suppliers in China,” because of which “decoupling … is impossible.“

“We can de-risk but not decouple,” he told the Financial Times, adding that he thinks this is the case “for everybody.”

“Think about the $500bn of trade that goes from China to the US every year. More than 95 per cent of rare earth materials or metals come from, or are processed in, China. There is no alternative,” Hayes continued, adding “If we had to pull out of China, it would take us many many years to re-establish that capability either domestically or in other friendly countries.”

Hayes’ comments underline the difficulties facing western manufacturers amid growing friction between China and the US and its allies.

Beijing in February imposed new sanctions on both Raytheon and US defence peer Lockheed Martin for supplying weapons to Taiwan. Hayes has also been placed under sanctions. 

The sanctions have had little commercial impact as the groups are not allowed to sell military equipment to China. Raytheon, however, has a substantial commercial aerospace business in the country through its engine subsidiary, Pratt & Whitney, and aviation systems and cabin equipment specialist Collins Aerospace. It has about 2,000 direct employees in China. -FT

Hayes – at least two years ago, said that the company is looking “to take some of the most critical components and have second sources but we are not in a position to pull out of China the way we did out of Russia.“

Now, concerns over the allegedly limited supply will loom over Trump’s planned meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping scheduled to take place March 31 to April 2, according to a White House official, while people briefed on the discussions say rare-earth supplies could dominate the agenda when the two leaders meet.

Rabobank’s Michael Every has drawn parallels to the 1956 Suez Crisis, when the United States used financial pressure to force Britain and France to halt military operations in Egypt. In that episode, Washington’s leverage reshaped the geopolitical balance among Western powers.:

This is obviously of critical importance. To extend an analogy used yesterday, is China of 2026 the US of 1956 and the US of 2026 the UK and France of the Suez Crisis?  (This is as Germany may emulate Japan in shoring up critical minerals supply via joint purchasing from its key firms aimed at reducing reliance on China.)

Today, the roles could be reversed. China’s control over critical mineral supplies raises the possibility that Beijing may wield similar influence over Washington at a moment when U.S. military operations and industrial supply chains depend heavily on those materials.

Rare-earth elements – particularly heavy varieties such as dysprosium and terbium – are essential to the manufacture of high-performance permanent magnets, radar systems, missile guidance components and propulsion systems used in modern weapons. China has long dominated global production and processing of these minerals, leaving the U.S. dependent on imports for critical components of its defense industry.

A report this month from the U.S. Geological Survey found that China accounted for 71% of U.S. rare-earth imports between 2021 and 2024 (so obviously less reliant than 2.5 years ago). During that period, China was the sole supplier of certain heavy rare earths, including terbium, with no immediate alternative sources available.

Marina Zhang, an associate professor at the University of Technology Sydney’s Australia-China Relations Institute, told SCMP that the imbalance gives Beijing “significant indirect leverage over the duration and cost of potential conflicts,” creating what she described as an “asymmetric vulnerability for Washington,” potentially allowing China to influence geopolitical negotiations by tightening or loosening access to materials vital for weapons production.

Zhao Minghao, a professor at Fudan University’s Institute of International Studies, said Beijing is likely to press the U.S. to ease tariffs and export controls in exchange for assurances on stable rare-earth supplies.

The issue has gained urgency as the U.S. military burns through munitions in its campaign against Iran, which began Feb. 28. President Trump initially projected that the strikes could last four to five weeks but said Monday that American objectives had nearly been achieved and the crisis could end “very soon.”

The Washington Post, citing unnamed U.S. officials, reported that the Pentagon expended roughly $5.6 billion worth of munitions during the first two days of operations alone, highlighting the pace at which advanced weapons stockpiles are being drawn down.

While existing missile inventories could support several months of combat, replenishing them could prove difficult if access to Chinese minerals is constrained, according to Amanda van Dyke, founder of the industry think tank Critical Minerals Hub.

“Missile stockpiles are more than sufficient to sustain the Iran war for at least three to six months,” she said. “But restocking those munitions afterward may take much longer without Chinese minerals.”

The Trump administration has attempted to mitigate the risk by launching “Project Vault,” a $12 billion public-private initiative aimed at building strategic stockpiles of critical minerals. Industry analysts say the program may help but could fall short of meeting the specific needs of modern weapons systems.

China has already demonstrated its willingness to use rare-earth exports as leverage. In April, Beijing imposed export controls on seven medium and heavy rare-earth elements – including dysprosium and terbium – requiring special licenses for shipments abroad. The move came in retaliation for U.S. tariffs introduced under Trump’s so-called “Liberation Day” trade measures.

Additional restrictions introduced in October were suspended the following month as part of a temporary trade truce, though the earlier licensing requirements remain in place.

For Washington, however, the stakes may extend beyond trade. As the conflict in Iran continues and munitions stockpiles shrink, the availability of rare earths could become an increasingly central factor in both military planning and diplomacy.

 Top headlines of conflict 

• Oil prices surge as two oil tankers are attacked and explode in Iraqi waters, forcing Iraq to stop operations at its oil ports and sending oil toward $100/bbl.

• ‘Largest wave of missiles since hostilities began’ launched into northern Israel by Hezbollah

• The US Navy said it was ‘too dangerous’ to escort tankers through still.

• President of Iran demands reparations and guarantees against future aggression.

• Trump says the war with Iran will end soon, as there is ‘practically nothing left to target.” 

• Yet U.S. and Israeli officials plan at least two more weeks of strikes

• U.S. forces destroyed 16 Iranian mine-laying vessels in the Strait of Hormuz

• Iran’s drone production has been significantly degraded.

• The IEA is preparing its largest-ever emergency crude oil release to counter surging Brent and WTI prices.

• Casualty estimates: over 1,200 killed in Iran from U.S./Israeli strikes (plus civilian reports), 13 deaths in Israel from Iranian retaliation, and 140 U.S. service members wounded (mostly minor).

*  *  *

Update (1850ET): As night fell across the Middle East, Hezbollah launched a huge wave of at least 150 rockets rained down on northern Israel (Times Of Israel):

Lebanese terror group Hezbollah showered rockets and drones at northern Israel for hours, repeatedly sending hundreds of thousands of Israelis to shelters on Wednesday evening.

It marked the largest Hezbollah attack on Israel since hostilities intensified earlier this month, as the terror group began attacks to support its sponsor, Iran, which is under intense attack from a joint US-Israel air campaign that began on February 28.

An opening salvo of 100 rockets was launched around 8 p.m. as a missile from Iran targeted the central region of the country, in what Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said was a coordinated attack. More Iranian missiles targeted the north and south of the country.

Footage shows Hezbollah’s large rocket barrage on northern Israel this evening. Around 100 rockets were fired, according to IDF assessments. pic.twitter.com/8wuG6J8kgg

— Emanuel (Mannie) Fabian (@manniefabian) March 11, 2026

This was followed by reports that two oil tankers have been hit by ‘explosive boats’ and were on fire in the Persian Gulf.

حريق كبير في ناقلة نفط قرب ميناء أم قصر جنوبي العراق. ترجيحات بأن النيران ناتجة عن استهداف مباشر للناقلة. pic.twitter.com/sc2rnsk8vd

— MUSTAFA SAADOON (@SaadoonMustafa) March 11, 2026

🚨 BREAKING: One of the oil tankers that was attacked by Iranian explosive boats in the Persian Gulf belongs to US based company @safeseagroup pic.twitter.com/4ogzMJLnae

— Amichai Stein (@AmichaiStein1) March 11, 2026

Apparently there are two unknown foreign tankers that have caught fire in Iraq’s territorial waters.

Stay connected, follow @MOSSADil. https://t.co/rI2C2thgfv pic.twitter.com/fHBP6tbWPO

— Mossad Commentary (@MOSSADil) March 11, 2026

Two foreign tankers carrying Iraqi fuel oil have been subjected to unidentified attacks within Iraqi territorial waters, causing both vessels to catch fire, according to security sources cited by Baghdad Today and according to the State Organization for Marketing of Oil (SOMO). The tankers are 

• Tanker SAFESEA VISHNU, flying flag of Marshall Islands and chartered by one of Iraqi companies contracted with SOMO
• Tanker ZEFYROS, flying flag of Malta and carrying condensate produced by Basra Gas Co.

The tankers – whose cargo was naphtha and condensate, both extremely flammable – were attacked while present in loading area.Tanker ZEFYROS was scheduled to head to Khor Al-Zubair Port on March 12 to load additional 30,000 tons shipment of naphtha. This incident negatively affects Iraq’s security and economy and also represents a threat to safety of maritime navigation and oil activities within Iraqi territorial waters, SOMO says.

The attack occurred in the waiting area near the Khor Abdullah waterway, approximately 11 miles from the export port caused a fire on the tanker, leading to significant damage to its structure.

According to an Iraqi port official speaking to the Reuters news agency, authorities have successfully evacuated 25 crew members from the two ships. Despite these efforts, the fires have remained ablaze on both vessels.

One tanker, which was flying a foreign flag, is believed to be American, though its specific nationality has not been confirmed. The attack took place within Iraq’s territorial waters, but no group has claimed responsibility for the incident.

It turns out that perhaps the area is not as “safe” as President Trump said it was. And as a reminder, the US Navy already said it was ‘too dangerous’ to escort tankers through still.

As a result of the tanker explosions, Iraq stopped operations at its oil ports. Iraq was one of the first Persian Gulf majors to start reducing oil production after the near-closure of Hormuz, followed by Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. The cuts forced forced the International Energy Agency to act with a co-ordinated release of 400 million barrels — a historic drawdown that is significantly higher than the volume that followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

Oil prices are surging higher on the news with WTI back above $91 – now up on the week and 20% higher than yesterday’s lows…

Stocks tumbled back to the lows of the day…

Equities decoupled into the close from oil and bonds… the tanker explosion has recoupled that hopeful mistake…

Shortly after the spike in crude oil, the US Department of Energy sent out the following statement:

• UNITED STATES TO RELEASE 172 MLN BARRELS OF OIL FROM STRATEGIC PETROLEUM RESERVE – DOE

…clearly damage control to tamp down the fire underneath oil prices that are once again out of control.

*  *  *

Update (1012ET): The President of Iran, Masoud Pezeshkian, says he has spoken with the leaders of Russia and Pakistan, to whom he “reaffirmed Iran’s commitment to peace in the region.”

According to Pezeshkian, the only way to end the war is “recognizing Iran’s legitimate rights, payment of reparations, and firm int’l guarantees against future aggression.”

Talking to leaders of Russia and Pakistan, I reaffirmed Iran’s commitment to peace in the region. The only way to end this war—ignited by the Zionist regime & US—is recognizing Iran’s legitimate rights, payment of reparations, and firm int’l guarantees against future aggression.

— Masoud Pezeshkian (@drpezeshkian) March 11, 2026

Other notable headlines of the day: 

*Overnight: Hegseth proclaiming the day saw “most fighters, the most bombers, the most strikes” of the war yet – sending prices higher

IEA MEMBERS AGREE OIL STOCKPILE RELEASE OF 400M BARRELS – quick dip and then rip higher in oil prices

*TRUMP: US TOOK OUT JUST ABOUT ALL OF IRAN’S MINE SHIPS – oil reversed lower

*TRUMP: OIL COMPANIES SHOULD USE STRAIT OF HORMUZ – extended drop

*TRUMP PROMISES ‘GREAT SAFETY’ FOR OIL TANKERS IN STRAIT OF HORMUZ – further drop

*   *   *

Update (1012ET): President Trump on Wednesday said that the war with Iran will end “soon” because there is “practically nothing left to target.”

“Little this and that… Any time I want it to end, it will end,” Trump told Axios during a five-minute phone call, adding “The war is going great. We are way ahead of the timetable. We have done more damage than we thought possible, even in the original six-week period.” 

“They were after the rest of the Middle East. They are paying for 47 years of death and destruction they caused. This is payback. They will not get off that easy,” Trump said. 

So, Mission Almost Accomplished™ after the Trump administration has given estimates ranging from weeks to months for how long this might take.

Yet while Trump is signaling that the operation has largely accomplished its objectives, US and Israeli officials say there’s been no indication of when fighting might stop. As Axios notes further, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said Wednesday that fighting will continue “without any time limit, for as long as necessary, until we achieve all the objectives and decisively win the campaign.” Meanwhile, Israeli and US officials say they’re preparing for at least two more weeks of strikes in Iran. 

*  *  *

Update (0930ET):

The most significant development in the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday was the start of IRGC naval mining operations, which were met with massive U.S. firepower that destroyed 16 mine-laying vessels. As we continue monitoring the maritime chokepoint this morning after IRGC attacks on three commercial vessels, attention is now shifting to the IRGC’s drone production capacity, which appears to have been degraded.

Bloomberg reports that 2,100 Shaheds have been fired so far in the 12-day conflict. U.S. forces struck IRGC production facilities, disrupting large-scale manufacturing. The report is based on comments from a senior European official.

“Since the Houthis have produced UAVs under bombardment, one would think the Iranians can, albeit not at the same rates, since facilities have to be dispersed and makeshift workshops used,” Sid Kaushal, a senior research fellow at the UK-based Royal United Services Institute, told the outlet.

The Wall Street Journal reported earlier that Saudi Arabia’s kill-cost ratio, neutralizing $20,000 IRGC drones with $2 million-plus missiles, has spurred talks with a Ukrainian counter-drone company for cheap interceptor drones.

*  *  * 

America-Israel’s Operation Epic Fury entered its 12th day, with U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth indicating that the most intense phase of U.S. strikes is expected on Wednesday. Tehran responded with retaliatory strikes against Gulf neighbors, as Goldman’s foreign affairs chief warned of a growing risk of regional spillover (read here). Overnight, market attention centered on energy, with the IEA reportedly proposing its largest-ever emergency crude release to combat Brent and WTI prices, which have reached triple-digit territory. 

“The most fighters, the most bombers, the most strikes. Intelligence more refined and better than ever. So that’s on one hand,” Hegseth said. “On the other hand, the last 24 hours have seen Iran fire the lowest number of missiles they’ve been capable of firing yet.”

Around 0900 ET, the IEA is expected to announce plans for a massive crude release into the market to cap Brent and WTI prices, which surged near $120 per barrel at the start of the week. In a note to premium subscribers, we outlined several problems that could arise and why any such release would only offer temporary relief.

Read the note:

• IEA Proposes Largest Ever Oil Stockpile Release… There Is Just One Big Problem

Beyond the panic among G-7 leaders and the IEA over crude prices, the Trump administration has also pushed its own headlines on Tuesday in an effort to jawbone energy prices lower, as we explained here.

Jawboning headlines from G-7 and the Trump administration on Tuesday were shortly followed by headlines that Iran had begun mining the Strait of Hormuz. That came after President Trump warned Tehran not to “put out any mines” in the narrow waterway. Shortly afterward, the U.S. military said 16 Iranian mine-laying naval vessels had been eliminated. 

Overnight reports described heavy U.S. and Israeli strikes on IRGC targets, with damage reported to oil facilities, civilian sites, and a hospital in Bushehr taken out of service. Iran has claimed that nearly 10,000 sites have been hit overall.

There are currently no signs of de-escalation from either side, with IRGC spokesman Ebrahim Zolfighari warning the Trump administration at the start of the week: “If they can afford the price of oil at $200 per barrel, let them keep playing this game.”

The latest casualty report states that more than 1,200 people have been killed by U.S. and Israeli strikes in Iran, according to the Iranian Red Crescent Society, and 13 have died in Israel as Iran retaliated with missiles and drones.

Chief Pentagon spokesperson Sean Parnell said that 140 U.S. service members have been wounded in the conflict so far.

“The vast majority of these injuries have been minor, and 108 service members have already returned to duty,” Parnell said. “Eight service members remain listed as severely injured and are receiving the highest level of medical care.”

The latest and most critical overnight headlines (courtesy of Bloomberg):

Military Attacks

• The US and Israel are conducting strikes against Iran, hitting thousands of targets across the country and degrading missile launchers and command networks

• B-52 bombers have been used to strike Iranian ballistic missile and command-and-control sites

• More than 1,000 civilians have been killed according to a preliminary count by Human Rights Activists News Agency

• Israel struck Iranian drone launch squads, though the White House cannot confirm reports of 150 US troops injured

• A drone strike in Iraq’s Kurdistan region killed a member of an Iranian Kurdish armed opposition group, with the group blaming Iran for the attack

Regional Impact

• The UAE’s air defenses are intercepting missile and drone attacks from Iran, with loud bangs heard in Dubai

• Two drones fell near Dubai International Airport, injuring four people including two Ghanaian nationals and one Bangladeshi national

• Turkish President Erdogan warned the war must be stopped before it engulfs the region in flames

• The UAE President wrote a patriotic poem performed by the national orchestra honoring those protecting the nation

Energy Market

• The International Energy Agency is considering releasing emergency oil reserves of 300-400 million barrels, potentially the largest in its history

• The IEA is recommending a release of oil from strategic reserves exceeding 100 million barrels over the first month, according to sources

• Brent crude futures rose 5% to $92.47 a barrel while West Texas Intermediate climbed 5.8% to $88.27 early Wednesday

• Wood Mackenzie consultancy warns of oil prices potentially reaching $150+ per barrel due to the supply shock

• Brent crude briefly surged to $119.5 per barrel late Sunday in one of the most dramatic spikes in recent oil-market history

Strait of Hormuz

• President Trump threatened Iran in a Truth Social post with “military consequences” at a level “never seen before” if they were to place mines in the Strait.

• Iran unleashes naval mines across the critical waterway, followed by US military announcing 16 IRGC mine-laying ships in the area were “eliminated”

• Reuters says the US naval fleet is not ready for convoys through Strait

• US Secretary Wright deleted the tweet on US Navy escorted oil tanker through Strait – WH says premature

• IRGC Commander slams Wright for fake news

• Three vessels hit by projectiles in Strait of Hormuz

Diplomatic Developments 

• Russia is constantly in touch with Iranian leadership and willing to contribute to efforts to stabilize the region, according to the Kremlin

• Russian media argues that negotiations with the US always end with missiles hitting capitals, questioning Trump’s peace deal efforts

• President Trump warned Iran against laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz, threatening military consequences at a level never seen before

Top stories by outlet:

• Pipelines by-passing Strait of Hormuz (WSJ)

• IEA proposes record release from strategic oil reserves (WSJ)

• IEA proposes release of 300-400 million barrels (Bloomberg)

• United States not ready for convoys through Strait (Reuters)

• China’s oil refiners relatively insulated from war (Bloomberg)

• Qatar’s LNG shutdown tightens global gas supply (Bloomberg)

• UAE shuts down refinery after damage from drone (Reuters)

• ADNOC presses oil partners to transit the Strait (Bloomberg)

• Pakistan reiterates support for Saudi Arabia (Bloomberg)

• U.S. diesel prices in record weekly increase (WSJ)

• Iran war and shadowy short wave broadcasts (FT)

• Europe’s shift from nuclear was “strategic mistake” (Reuters)

• Israeli intelligence assessment indicates Iran’s new supreme leader was wounded at the start of the war (AP News) 

Polymarket odds for a US-Iran ceasefire are sliding:

Commenting on energy markets, UBS analyst Nana Antiedu cited Henri Patricot’s note on three scenarios in the conflict and potential oil/gas implications:

If there is a quick de-escalation of the US-Iran conflict by mid-March with no damage to critical oil infrastructure and flows via Hormuz resume, Henri Patricot sees Brent averaging $80/bbl in March, before dropping to the mid-$70s.

TTF gas prices would hold €50/MWh, before falling to the high-€30s in 2Q26. In the case where Hormuz disruptions persist for a month, both oil and gas markets would further tighten, increasing the pace of inventory drawdowns and supply shut from GCC countries.

Here, he expects oil prices to rise above $100/bbl in the second half of March, averaging $100/bbl in March and $78/bbl for 1Q26, before coming down to $90/bbl in 2Q26 as disruptions ease.

For gas, LNG supply would be reduced for longer, requiring more demand reduction, especially as spare capacity and storage are limited.

He would expect TTF to rise towards €80/MWh by end-March, averaging €65/MWh in March and €46/bbl for 1Q26, before coming down to €50/MWh in 2Q26.

In the final scenario, where there is extended disruption (longer than a month), Brent prices could average $110/bbl in March and might climb towards $150+ by 2Q26. On the gas side, TTF could average €73/MWh in March and rise to €80/MWh in 2Q26.

What’s clear is that the Middle East conflict has sent macroeconomic uncertainty soaring across the world, despite the White House saying the surge in energy prices is temporary.

The big headline this morning will be around 0900 ET from the IEA on crude inventory releases.