Authored by Andrew Korybko,

He just ordered that some of Russia’s LNG exports to the EU be redirected to Asia, and if the EU doesn’t coerce Zelensky into giving him giving him more of what he wants in Ukraine, then there’d be no reason for him to not cut off Russia’s exports to them entirely for catalyzing a full-blown crisis.

The EU agreed late last year to end Russian LNG imports by 31 December 2026 and pipeline gas imports by 30 September 2027, with the possibility of extending the deadline till 31 October 2027 in case storage levels are below their required filling levels. This was done because “The US Weaponized Russophobic Paranoia & Energy Geopolitics To Capture Control Of Europe”, ergo why it encouraged this decision so as to then monopolize the bloc’s energy market in tandem with its Qatari ally, another LNG superpower.

Everything changed with the Third Gulf War, which began with joint US-Israeli attacks on Iran and has since seen Iran retaliate against all of the Gulf Kingdoms on the basis that the US infrastructure on their territories is being used in attacks against the Islamic Republic. The Strait of Hormuz is now effectively closed and the Gulf Kingdoms are scaling back energy production due to nearly reaching their storage capacity. Importantly, Qatar is also shutting down its gas liquefication, which will take weeks to restart.

It’s for these reasons that an energy crisis is expected which might surpass the one during COVID and even the 1973 Arab oil embargo in terms of its global disruption. With Gulf oil and gas pretty much out of the picture for now, the only realistic recourse for stabilizing the market is to return Russian resources thereto, which contextualizes why the US just temporarily waived sanctions on India’s purchase of Russian oil. The EU might also ramp up its gas imports from Russia ahead of its self-imposed deadlines.

With the impending global energy crisis in mind, Putin announced last week that he ordered his government to look into the possibility of redirecting European energy exports to Asia since they’re more profitable and won’t soon stop importing Russian energy completely like the EU will. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak then confirmed shortly thereafter that the decision was just made to redirect some (keyword) LNG exports from Europe to friendly countries such as India and China.

The scenario of Russia cutting off gas exports to the EU before the EU cuts off its gas imports from Russia is still on the table, but Putin seems more interested in leveraging this possibility in furtherance of his strategic goals than eschewing such an opportunity just to punish his Western adversaries. To that end, Novak’s confirmation that he decided to redirect some LNG exports from Europe to Asia can be seen as proof of Putin’s intent, but he’s also signaling interest in reconsidering if certain conditions are met.

These are the fulfilment of his goals in Ukraine: Russia’s control over the entirety of the disputed regions, Ukraine’s demilitarization and denazification, the restoration of its constitutional neutrality, and no foreign troops there after the conflict ends. He also wants to begin negotiations on reforming the European security architecture so that it’s less threatening to Russia and is suspected of wanting Zelensky not to run in Ukraine’s next elections. Not all might be achieved, but some likely will, though.

It’s at this moment when the EU is facing an economic crisis caused by the Third Gulf War taking the region’s energy exports offline that the bloc must decide whether it will coerce Zelensky to give Putin at least some of what he wants in exchange for him not redirecting LNG exports from them to Asia. The US might help them with this too so as to maintain the purchasing power of one of its largest markets. If they fail to do so, however, then Putin might finally deal a long-awaited deathblow to the EU economy.

Even a massive military assault on Iran is unlikely to topple the Islamic Republic of Iran and its state system, according to a classified assessment produced by the US intelligence community shortly before the US and Israel launched their current ‘shock and awe-style’ military campaign on Tehran. The Washington Post first reported it, perhaps based on some kind of leak or briefing by an anonymous intelligence official, and calls it—

a sobering assessment as the Trump administration raises the specter of an extended military campaign that officials say has “only just begun.”

The report, compiled by the National Intelligence Council (NIC) roughly a week before the war began, concluded that Iran’s political system is structured to survive even major leadership losses, The Washington Post reports. However, this should really come as no surprise to anyone awake and observant throughout the past two plus decades of America’s ‘nation building’ efforts in the Middle East, from Afghanistan to Iraq to Libya. 

Already, Israel and the US have touted that ‘all’ of Iran’s top leadership has been decimated, and yet clearly the governing system and its military – led specially by the elite IRGC – is not only in control but is still fighting back.

According to the assessment, Tehran has long prepared for such contingencies – and likely there’s an emergency plan now in place in the wake of Ayatollah’s Khamenei’s death.

Intelligence officials say Iran long ago established clear succession protocols designed to maintain continuity of power even if senior leaders are killed. In other words, the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei would likely trigger an internal transition process rather than cause the system to collapse – again, something which should be the obvious scenario. 

The intelligence report also poured cold water on the idea that Iran’s opposition could quickly fill any power vacuum. US intelligence analysts assessed that the country’s fragmented opposition movements remain too divided to seize control, regardless of whether Washington pursued limited strikes against leadership targets or a broader assault on state institutions.

Equally unlikely, according to current and former US officials familiar with the analysis, is the prospect of a spontaneous nationwide uprising. We could speculate that this possibility may have had a chance of some degree of success within the opening one or two days of the mass US-Israel bombing campaign, but it clearly didn’t materialize.

Welcome to U.S. elite foreign policy discourse, where you have to stroke your chin and muse thoughtfully about whether it’s a good thing to trigger state collapse and civil war in a nation of 90 million that didn’t pose an imminent threat. https://t.co/EWCLpZrIwF

— Marcus Stanley (@MarcusMStanley) March 7, 2026

On this prospect WaPo quotes Brookings:

“There’s no other force within Iran that can confront the remaining power that the regime has,” Suzanne Maloney, an Iran scholar and vice president of the Brookings Institution, told The Post. “Even if they’re not able to project that power very effectively against their neighbors, they can certainly dominate inside the country.”

The National Intelligence Council synthesizes the analytical work of all 18 US intelligence agencies, and produces classified estimates meant to guide policymakers on major geopolitical risks.

Much of the American public, raised on Hollywood movies, tends to have an overblown and inaccurate understanding of US intelligence agencies like the CIA. While the CIA certainly has a very powerful and secretive covert, operations side (and an even tinier Ground Branch)  – the bulk of its personnel and overseers/top officials are analysts. So there is an overt side and a covert side, with the analyst side tasked with providing the IC and White House with a ‘realistic’ picture of the world, ideally devoid of policy or ideology. Their job is also often to ‘game out’ all worst possible scenarios, given a certain course of action.

The report says the prospect of Iran’s fragmented opposition taking control of the country is “unlikely,” raising doubts about Trump’s declared plan to “clean out” Iran’s leadership structure and install a ruler of his choosing pic.twitter.com/YaHwgoWB9d

— John Hudson (@John_Hudson) March 7, 2026

Meanwhile, the White House has not said whether Trump was briefed on the assessment before approving the operation. But likely such an assessment would have made it into the CIA’s daily briefing for the president, also given reports from last week that the Pentagon also tried to inject some realism in terms of the ‘unknowns’ once Tehran is attacked.

An explosion struck the US Embassy in Oslo, Norway Sunday morning, causing minor damage to the facility and no reported injuries.

The blast, which struck around 1:00 a.m. local time, occurred at the entry to the consular section, according to police spokesperson Mikael Dellemyr in a statement to public broadcaster NRK. 

“We’ve determined that an explosion ​hit the American embassy,” he said. 

BREAKING: Officials say explosion was at the consular entrance to the U.S. Embassy in Oslo, Norway. – NRK pic.twitter.com/BmUfmefCYA

— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) March 8, 2026

Police separately said that they don’t have any idea what caused the blast or who was involved.

“The police are in a dialogue with the embassy and there ​are no ​reports of ⁠any injured persons,” they said in a statement. 

China’s latest five-year plan avoids setting ambitious solar targets, signaling rising challenges for the sector after years of explosive growth, according to Bloomberg.

Released during the annual National People’s Congress, the plan does not include a goal for solar installations by 2030. That omission contrasts with clearer commitments elsewhere in the energy mix, including plans to double offshore wind capacity and expand nuclear and pumped-hydro power. Solar receives relatively little attention overall, while policymakers instead emphasize broader transition initiatives such as zero-carbon industrial parks.

The shift follows a record surge in solar development. China’s solar power generation surpassed wind for the first time last year, driven by a flood of inexpensive panels that helped make solar one of the country’s most competitive energy sources.

Yet the rapid expansion is beginning to strain the power system. As solar’s share of the electricity mix rises, grid pressure has increased, leading to more curtailment and weaker returns for developers.

Bloomberg writes that China now faces a different set of challenges for both its power network and industrial economy.

“As renewables reach higher shares in the power mix, the focus naturally shifts toward system integration,” said Muyi Yang, a senior energy analyst at Ember. That means more attention on grid expansion, system flexibility, energy storage and other ways to balance intermittent power, including pumped hydro. Expanding clean power across industry also demands deeper structural changes, since existing systems were largely built around fossil fuels. “That’s where you start to see more explicit policy attention and new initiatives emerging like the zero-carbon industrial park initiative,” Yang said.

Meanwhile, market conditions in the solar supply chain remain weak. According to the China Silicon Industry Association, polysilicon prices in China dropped between 6.2% and 12.9% in the week through Wednesday as demand stayed soft after the Lunar New Year holiday and inventories remained elevated. Wafer prices also slipped between 2.5% and 2.9%, while module prices held steady at 0.71–0.75 yuan per watt and cell prices remained unchanged at 0.41–0.45 yuan per watt.

Grid utilization data also points to mounting strain. Solar power use edged down to 94.3% in January from 94.4% a year earlier and 94.6% in December, according to the National New Energy Consumption Monitoring and Early Warning Center.

At the same time, policymakers are beginning to address the sector’s next phase of development. China plans to strengthen its capacity to recycle aging solar modules, setting a target to process 250,000 tons by 2027 as large volumes of older equipment approach retirement. At the National People’s Congress, Zhong Baoshen, chairman and president of LONGi Green Energy Technology, also proposed creating a financing supervision system for the solar industry and restricting funding for companies that fail to meet regulatory requirements.

Forecasts referenced by the China Photovoltaic Industry Association suggest the sector’s breakneck expansion may slow by 2026 as grid constraints and weaker economics begin to bite.

Via The Cradle

At least eight Israeli soldiers were injured by Hezbollah rockets near the border with southern Lebanon on Friday, including the son of Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, according to Israeli media. The Lebanese resistance targeted Israeli troop gatherings on Friday. A rocket struck a group of soldiers, wounding eight, five of whom are in serious condition, according to Israel’s military.

The Givati Brigade soldiers were transported to the hospital for treatment. Smotrich’s office released a statement saying his son was among the wounded troops. The attack comes a day after Smotrich vowed that Israel would make Beirut “look like Khan Yunis.”

Hezbollah drone and rocket attacks on Israeli positions have been ongoing, including soldiers inside Lebanon and forces across the border. 

“The Mujahideen of the Islamic Resistance targeted a position where soldiers of the Israeli enemy army were entrenched in the Blat al-Mustaqbal area in southern Lebanon with a guided missile… and achieved a direct hit,” Hezbollah announced early Friday evening. 

It also announced drone attacks on Kiryat Shmona, a rocket attack on a base in Safad, and around a dozen other operations. 

Israel has started a ground invasion of Lebanon after the pro-Tehran resistance reopened the front, following the beginning of the war of aggression against Iran.

Occupation troops have crossed the border into the country, while other forces are positioned in locations that the Israeli army occupied inside Lebanon after the ceasefire deal in 2024. 

Since the ground war began, Hebrew media have reported several “difficult security incidents” which are under heavy censorship. 

An Israeli army officer was wounded by Hezbollah resistance fighters on March 5, the Israeli military announced in an official statement. 

Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich’s son was sent off to the northern front with Hezbollah and a day after was wounded:

Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich’s son lasted one day in Lebanon before getting injured, according to Israeli media. pic.twitter.com/mifpnHiLiu

— The Cradle (@TheCradleMedia) March 6, 2026

The battles coincided with continued indiscriminate bombing by Israel across south Lebanon, the east, and the capital, Beirut. Over 200 Lebanese have been killed by Israel since March 2.

According to a report by Al Jadeed TV, France has proposed an initiative for an end to the war in Lebanon in exchange for “a full surrender of Hezbollah.”

Hezbollah is “rejecting that any party negotiates on its behalf over ending the war, stressing that when the negotiations course matures, it will be the first negotiator, seeing as it considers the previous agreement to be unideal.”

The Israeli army has attacked southern Lebanon almost every day since the November 2024 so-called ceasefire, killing hundreds of people. Hezbollah or possibly other groups began to launch sporadic missiles into northern Israel soon after the start of the Iran war this week.

Sigh. It’s all so exhausting. Not all of New York’s wealthiest residents are sounding alarms over Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s plan to raise taxes on high earners. In fact, a small group of millionaires says the backlash is a bit over the top, according to Bloomberg.

Members of the Patriotic Millionaires — including filmmaker Abigail Disney, granddaughter of Roy O. Disney of The Walt Disney Company — argue the rich can easily afford to contribute more if it helps fund things like schools, transit and child care.

“I’ve gotten tax cut after tax cut after tax cut. And I never needed any of them,” Disney said, backing Mamdani’s proposed 2-percentage-point income-tax surcharge on millionaires. “All these things have fallen out from under the middle class — an education system that works, public transportation, infrastructure, health care.”

Bloomberg writes that the mayor has floated several ways to boost city revenue, including higher income taxes for people earning more than $1 million and an increase in the top corporate tax rate. Critics, including hedge fund billionaire Bill Ackman, say the approach risks driving wealthy residents and companies to lower-tax states like Florida or Texas — a concern echoed by Kathy Hochul and business groups.

Supporters counter that the idea of a billionaire stampede out of Manhattan is exaggerated. “I’m certainly not going to move because of higher taxes. That’s ridiculous,” said Morris Pearl, a former executive at BlackRock. “I live where I want to live, and so do most rich people.”

New York isn’t short on potential taxpayers. Nearly 35,000 city residents earned at least $1 million in 2023, and the top 1% already generate roughly two-fifths of the city’s income-tax revenue, according to the New York City Independent Budget Office. For some wealthy advocates, that just proves the point: the people with the deepest pockets can afford to keep the city running.

Pearl also notes how easily the ultra-wealthy can sidestep income taxes altogether. “When you’re already rich, you don’t need income,” he said. “If you don’t have income, you don’t pay income taxes.”

As the Iran war unfolds and has shown signs of becoming a regional conflict, one interesting question is what Turkey’s role will be – given it is both a NATO member possessing a large military and an avowed regional enemy and rival to Israel for influence. 

A Turkish defense ministry source has been cited in national media to say the country is mulling deployment of F-16 fighter jets to the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC).

Earlier this week a British military base hosted in EU member Cyprus (on the southern side of the island) came under attack by Iranian-made drones. 

This has resulted in some European military assets being moved to Cyprus, including additional British forces. But now it appears Turkey wants to make a show of doing the name for Turkish-claimed Cypriot territory.

Turkey’s Daily Sabah points out, however, that “TRNC has been incensed by Greek Cypriot’s growing military cooperation with its Western partners after the United Kingdom has allowed the U.S. to use its military base in the south of the divided island.

Citing the military source, the same Turkish outlet said, “The TRNC leadership has held a series of security meetings in response to the crisis, he added, focusing on crisis management, coordination with Türkiye and the preparedness of civil defense mechanisms.”

As for Turkey’s long occupation of northern Cyprus, no one else in the world recognizes its legitimacy except for Ankara. Cyprus receives backing from its EU partners, but this doesn’t go much beyond verbal censure of Turkey.

The Turkish armed forces has for years had at least 30,000 soldiers stationed on Cyprus and growing, the northern part of which it has illegally occupied since 1974.

It remains something that Greek Cypriots cannot forgive or forget, and it continues to shape a deep and lasting distrust of Britain. https://t.co/Id30iJpP4V

— elena antoniou (@elenaantoniou3) March 7, 2026

At the moment, President Erdogan has reportedly reached out to the UK’s Starmer, urging for Britain to do more diplomacy to immediately bring the Iran-US-Israel war to halt.

By Ethan Howland of UtilityDive

The PJM Interconnection’s market monitor on Wednesday urged federal regulators to reject an application from GenOn to sell a 216-MW power plant in Maryland to TeraWulf over concerns the data center developer would remove the resource from PJM’s market.

Taking the four Morgantown generating units out of the PJM market would run counter to “principles” issued by the National Energy Dominance Council and the PJM governors that call for new data centers to provide new generation, Monitoring Analytics, the market monitor, said in a filing with the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission.

The proposed deal between TeraWulf and GenOn would also shift risks and costs to PJM customers and would be inconsistent with the public interest, according to Monitoring Analytics.

The Trump administration and others have been pressing for data center companies to pay for their own power supply and energy infrastructure needs. President Donald Trump on Wednesday issued a “ratepayer pledge” — signed by Amazon, Google, Meta, Microsoft, OpenAI, Oracle and xAI — that states that the companies will acquire new generation to meet their data center needs.

“Where possible, these companies will also add more capacity that serves the broader public by increasing supply,” the pledge states.

In its filing at FERC, Monitoring Analytics said the Morgantown power plant is in a constrained zone in PJM that needs existing generation to be retained and new generation to be built.

FERC should reject the proposed deal and require GenOn to refile its application to clarify that the Morgantown units would continue supplying the PJM market, according to the market monitor.

“TeraWulf should be required to commit to not removing the Morgantown Units from the PJM market to serve data center load,” Monitoring Analytics said.

TeraWulf, however, plans to be a net generator for Maryland, according to company officials.

TeraWulf intends to build its project in two phases, each with about 500 MW of gas-fired generation, 250 MW of battery storage and 500 MW of data center load, Paul Prager, TeraWulf chairman and CEO, said during a Feb. 26 earnings call.

“The site is being engineered to operate as a net generator to the state,” Prager said. “We are not just consuming capacity. We are adding it in constrained markets.”

TeraWulf intends to use the planned battery storage at the Morgantown site to shave peak load in a benefit to the PJM grid, Nazar Khan, TeraWulf chief technology officer, said.

Potentially, the project’s first phase could come online in late 2028, according to Prager.

The Morgantown power plant site includes four generating units totaling about 1,260 MW that were shuttered in 2022.

TeraWulf posted a $661.4 million loss in 2025, up from a $72.4 million loss the year before while its revenue increased to $168.5 million from $140.1 million in the same period, according to its annual report filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

Since 2022, TeraWulf has mainly funded its operations by selling bitcoin and issuing debt and equity, the company said.

Besides the Morgantown project, TeraWulf has data center projects in Kentucky, New York and Texas, according to a Feb. 26 investor presentation. 

Other parties protesting the Morgantown deal at FERC include Public Citizen and area residents. FERC should direct TeraWulf to describe its plans for the Morgantown site, including how it intends to remediate coal-related pollution there, according to Public Citizen.

A second China-linked bulk carrier broadcasted “CHINA OWNER_ALL CREW” while transiting the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday morning in an effort to reduce the risk of an IRGC drone or missile attack. We were the first to highlight this tactic late Wednesday night and believe it will only become more widespread within the commercial shipping community.

The Liberia-flagged Sino Ocean broadcasted “CHINA OWNER_ALL CREW” as it transited the narrowest stretch of the world’s most critical maritime energy chokepoint early this morning.

The first instance of a bulk carrier broadcasting “CHINA OWNER” occurred last Wednesday night when the Iron Maiden changed its destination signal while transiting the waterway, hugging the Omani coastline.

There was an earlier report from New Delhi Television that said, “Iran has said it will allow only Chinese vessels to pass through the Strait of Hormuz as an expression of gratitude for Beijing’s stance toward Tehran since the war in the Middle East began.”

Meanwhile, dozens of bulk carriers and oil and gas tankers are trapped in the Persian Gulf as the Hormuz chokepoint remains disrupted due to insurers canceling coverage for the region because of IRGC drone attack risks. This has choked off energy supplies to major customers in Asia and Europe (read about the incoming energy shock).

The Trump administration has been working on a plan to unclog the maritime chokepoint with a $20 billion reinsurance program backed by the US government and has even floated the idea of possible military escorts, though no clear operational plan has been announced yet.

X account “Zhao DaShuai,” which Western MSM say is linked to the Chinese military, said, “It seems Chinese ships will have a monopoly on the Strait of Hormuz trade route. Looks like another case of Do Nothing and Win for China.”

It seems Chinese ships will have a monopoly on the Strait of Hormuz trade route.

Looks like another case of Do Nothing and Win for China. pic.twitter.com/ozTdvHY8DZ

— Zhao DaShuai 东北进修🇨🇳 (@zhao_dashuai) March 7, 2026

Another? 

China-owned Bulk Carrier “KSL Hengyang” transited strait of Hormuz. https://t.co/wDpdMDIqiU pic.twitter.com/t4J3ugwgYd

— MenchOsint (@MenchOsint) March 7, 2026

We suspect the next big thing for ships in the region is to start identifying as Chinese.

Authored by Felicity Bradstock via OilPrice.com,

• While attention is often on Venezuela’s vast oil reserves, many experts believe that exploiting its natural gas fields, which were previously neglected, presents a more immediate opportunity for economic success.

• Developing Venezuela’s gas industry will likely require an energy partnership with neighboring Trinidad and Tobago, as the island nation possesses the necessary infrastructure for processing and exporting the fuel that Venezuela lacks.

• Major international companies like Shell and BP are pursuing key Venezuelan gas projects, such as the Dragon and Cocuina fields, a move facilitated by greater leniency on U.S. sanctions.

Following the United States intervention in Venezuela on 3rd January, which brought an end to President Nicolás Maduro’s 13-year dictatorship, all eyes have been on the South American country’s oil industry. Once one of the world’s biggest oil producers, output has waned in recent years. However, with U.S. President Trump setting his sights on Venezuelan crude, many are speculating just how quickly its resources can be tapped. While the focus is on Venezuela’s potential as an oil power, others think that more immediate success may be seen in the exploitation of its gas fields. 

Venezuela is home to the largest oil reserves in the world, with an estimated 300 billion barrels. However, years of underinvestment and mismanagement have led to a significant reduction in output. The recent U.S. intervention in the South American country has drawn new investor interest in its energy market, as President Trump vows to rapidly redevelop Venezuela’s long-neglected oil resources.

On 13th February, the White House published a press release that stated, “The Trump Administration is rapidly implementing President Trump’s vision to reopen and develop Venezuela’s oil industry for the shared benefit of the American and Venezuelan people. Thanks to President Trump’s leadership, the United States has already issued several general licenses at record speed for oil and gas companies?to make unprecedented investments in Venezuela’s energy infrastructure.”

The statement went on to say, “Venezuela holds tremendous economic potential, but years of instability, corruption, and economic mismanagement have limited the nation’s growth and prosperity. These general licenses invite American and other aligned companies to?play a constructive role in supporting economic recovery?and responsible investment.”

While the world eyes Venezuela’s untapped oil, some believe that there may be greater mid-term potential in exploiting its natural gas reserves. Most of Venezuela’s gas is trapped deep beneath the seafloor. While these reserves were first discovered several decades ago, ago, off the country’s eastern coast, along the border with Trinidad and Tobago, the Venezuelan government left them largely untouched as it focused its attention on oil production. 

Several oil majors, such as Shell, have previously approached Venezuela for a stake in its gas business, even when interest in the country’s oil industry was waning due to geopolitical instability and U.S. sanctions. For years, U.S. sanctions on Venezuela’s government and its state-owned oil company, Petróleos de Venezuela, have restricted the development of its gas industry. In addition, developing its natural gas industry would require cooperation with neighbouring Trinidad and Tobago. 

Trinidad and Tobago already has the necessary infrastructure to transport fuel onshore and export it, which Venezuela does not. If the two countries established an energy partnership, Trinidad’s pre-existing infrastructure could help Venezuela to develop its gas industry more rapidly. However, the two powers, which are separated by language (Spanish and English), have had a strained relationship in recent years. Trinidad and Tobago has generally sided with the United States when it comes to Maduro’s presidency and the decision to impose sanctions on Venezuelan energy. 

Venezuela’s biggest natural gas prospect is the giant Dragon oil field, as it is the closest to being developed. The Venezuelan government previously conducted exploration activities in the field but was unable to retrieve the gas buried there due to a lack of funding to continue exploration. These efforts were further undermined by the sinking of an exploration rig in 2010.

In 2023, the Venezuelan government made a deal with Shell, allowing the foreign firm to explore the Dragon field. The plan was to construct a short pipeline between Dragon and Shell’s existing infrastructure on the island of Trinidad, rather than to start from scratch in Venezuela. 

If Shell develops Dragon, the field is expected to generate around $500 million a year in revenue, based on current natural gas prices, of which at least 45 percent is expected to go to Venezuela in the form of taxes and royalties. “These are opportunities that could potentially be activated within months, with potentially a few billion dollars of investments and production in the next couple of years,” Shell’s CEO, Wael Sawan, told CNBC.

U.S. Energy Secretary, Chris Wright, said that developing a regional natural gas collaboration could be “a real potential win-win for Trinidad and Tobago, a win for the global L.N.G. market, a win for Venezuela.”

Meanwhile, BP is pursuing another Venezuelan gas project, a field known as Cocuina, which greater leniency on U.S. sanctions may make possible. In late February, the U.S. Treasury Department appeared to give oil and gas firms greater leeway to negotiate with Venezuela and operate in the South American country. “They are splicing together an environment that allows the existing players to operate,” said Rachel Ziemba, an adjunct senior fellow at the Centre for a New American Security.

While President Trump is eyeing long-term oil industry development in Venezuela, some international oil majors may be more interested in the South American country’s natural gas potential. Developing the resource will likely require collaboration with neighbouring Trinidad and Tobago, and could lead to the development of a new regional Latin America-Caribbean energy hub.