Authored by Sylvia Xu via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) is seeking to change a rule that determines eligibility for permanent residency—commonly known as a green card—based on whether an applicant is considered a “public charge,” someone who is likely to depend primarily on public benefits.

That rule—known as the public charge ground of inadmissibility—generally applies to green card applicants, with the exception of certain categories such as refugees and asylum seekers.

In 2022, 54 percent of households headed by immigrants—naturalized, legal, and illegal—used one or more major welfare programs. That’s compared to 39 percent of U.S.-born households, according to Census Bureau data.

In November 2025, DHS issued a proposal to repeal existing public charge regulations and institute a broader, discretionary standard.

The proposed policy change would allow immigration officials to take into account the use of a wider range of public benefits—including food stamps, Medicaid, and housing assistance—to determine whether a green card applicant will become a public charge.

In its notice of proposed rulemaking, DHS states its goal is to encourage self-reliance and prevent public benefits from becoming an incentive for immigration.

Critics say the proposed policy change will lead to confusion and “decreased participation in public benefit programs” by people who need them.

The mandatory public comment period for the proposed rule ended on Dec. 19, 2025, drawing more than 8,800 comments, including a letter of objection signed by the attorneys general of 20 states. DHS has now entered a mandatory review phase in which it must read and address the substantive points raised by the public.

Once this review is complete, which can take months, the government may modify the rule based on the feedback received before a final rule is published and officially takes effect.

Here’s what we know about the proposed changes.

Key Changes

The changes are designed to undo what the proposal calls “unduly restrictive” public charge rules. Under the old rules, put in place under the Biden administration in 2022, officers couldn’t consider whether green card applicants used benefits such as food stamps (SNAP), the Children’s Health Insurance Program, Medicaid, or housing assistance.

The only benefits officers could take into account were cash benefit programs that provide direct, monthly payments intended to cover basic needs, such as Temporary Assistance for Needy Families and Supplemental Security Income, as well as long-term care in a facility such as a nursing home, when the government pays for it.

Under the new proposal, officers would also be empowered to consider all individualized, case-specific facts and any data relevant to a person’s self-sufficiency.

The changes will restore a process that “trusts in and relies on DHS officers’ good judgment and sound discretion as envisioned by Congress,” the proposal says.

The new DHS proposal also clarifies that receiving “any means‑tested public benefit” is considered a breach of the public charge bond—a monetary guarantee, made by a citizen or U.S. company, that a green card applicant will not become a public charge.

Under the new proposal, an affidavit of support also carries less weight.

Currently, officers must “favorably consider” any eligible affidavit of support—an agreement in which a U.S. citizen, a green card holder, or a company pledges to provide financial backing to the applicant, if needed.

The new rule would also eliminate protection for immigrants who used benefits while they were in certain exempt categories.

For some of those categories, there is a path to citizenship that is also exempt from the public charge rule. For others, there is not—including those with Temporary Protected Status, which is a temporary stay of deportation provided to nationals of certain countries that are undergoing armed conflict, disaster, or other extraordinary conditions.

Under the 2022 rule, people with Temporary Protected Status were shielded from having public benefits used against them, even if they later moved into a non-protected status. The new proposal would allow DHS to consider an applicant’s use of public benefits at any time, regardless of when those benefits were received.

Household Focus

The new policy could cut government spending by about $8.97 billion each year because of people who would stop or avoid enrolling in public benefits, DHS stated in its proposal. That includes $5.29 billion less from the federal government and $3.68 billion less from states.

Under current rules, an applicant is mostly evaluated individually, whereas the new rule takes into account an applicant’s family members living in the same household, including a mixed-status household, which consists of people with different immigration and citizenship statuses.

There were an estimated 4.7 million mixed-status households in the United States in 2022, according to a Center for Migration Studies analysis. Mixed-status households receive more than $51 billion annually in public benefits, according to an analysis by The Epoch Times, based on DHS data.

However, public benefit use can’t be considered against immigrants in mixed-status households who entered the United States as refugees or asylum seekers. Between 1990 and 2022, the United States has welcomed more than 2.1 million refugees and accepted more than 800,000 asylees, according to data from the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services.

DHS said the new rule could impact some U.S. citizens who live in mixed-status households. It could penalize green card applicants if direct family members in the household, including U.S. citizens, receive public benefits. Those U.S. citizens may decide to avoid public benefits so the green card applicant isn’t penalized.

Within mixed-status households, roughly 9.2 million individuals receive food stamps, Medicaid, Children’s Health Insurance Program, Temporary Assistance for Needy Families, and Supplemental Security Income. And about 343,000 households receive Federal Rental Assistance, according to DHS data.

DHS estimated that about 950,000 individuals, or 10 percent, will likely stop participating in or choose not to apply for public benefit programs if the current proposal is implemented.

Studies found large drops in benefit enrollment after the 1996 welfare reform law, with decreases ranging from 21 to 54 percent, DHS noted.

The new proposal acknowledged the changes could also affect organizations that rely on public benefit funds. These include hospitals and nonprofits tied to Medicaid, companies that make medical supplies and drugs, grocery stores that accept SNAP benefits, farmers who supply SNAP-eligible foods, and landlords involved in federally funded housing programs.

Evolution of the Policy

The United States has used “public charge” as grounds for rejecting permanent residency applications since the 19th century. The Immigration Act of 1882 specified that aliens who became public charges within a year of arriving in the United States would be deported.

For more than a century, immigration officers were given broad discretion, known as the “totality of the circumstances” framework.

Then, in 1996, Congress set new requirements and policy goals. The Illegal Immigration Reform and Immigrant Responsibility Act of 1996 required officers to consider, “at a minimum,” five statutory factors: age, health, family status, financial situation, and education and skills.

Read the rest here…

Submitted by @RyanMaue,

A meteorologist’s main purpose: keep you alive, and marked safe.✅

There is nothing we can do to stop this epic week of weather, and believe me, I have been trying to find silver linings or rays of sunlight.

So, the best preparation is fresh, accurate, and expert information from trusted sources.

While every new weather model run (alphabet soup of acronyms) shows slight adjustments in who gets the most freezing rain (ice) and snowfall❄️ there is little doubt about the aftermath of the massive ice storm: hazardous cold like January 21, 1985 when the United States 🇺🇸 average low temperature sunk to 4°F.

Many of these record lows are still standing.

⚠️You should be prepared for extended power outages with subzero temperatures outdoors. Think about where you can go, what you can do, and who needs even more help to survive this week ahead. This is not hype or a joke.

Temperature Analysis January 21, 1985 | PRISM Oregon State

Let’s dig in (or out) of this Winter Storm that is actually 2 waves of moisture that finally consolidate into a rather powerful Nor’easter.

If you’re younger than 40 years old, then you may be experiencing the worst winter weather of your lifetime depending upon where you are over the next 10-14 days.

Plan for extended power outages with brutally cold temperatures for many days. pic.twitter.com/GYaXpU3A8Z

— Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue) January 22, 2026

ECMWF 12z HRES Precipitation Type and Intensity

A massive “slug of moisture” will stream out of the subtropical Pacific and then the Gulf of Mexico to combine into an “atmospheric river”. Normally that would be heavy rain and maybe snowfall where the air is below freezing.

Not this time — we will have extremely cold Arctic air flooding southward: and the atmospheric river will go up and over the more dense cold air near the surface. When the warmer subtropical moisture falls through the : it turns to snow or freezing rain or sleet.

Total Snowfall Amounts (NOAA Blend of Models — trust this b/c it includes the ECMWF or Euro flagship model) may be an underestimate (!)

Freezing Rain Expected from Winter Storm

We can partition the precipitation (called QPF for quantitative precipitation forecast) into rain, snow, sleet, and freezing rain by using the temperature and humidity of the column of air above the surface.

These amounts forecast by ECMWF 12z will not all immediately freeze on contact with surfaces like trees and power lines, but a LOT of it will accrete, and cause potentially catastrophic damage.

The National Weather Service forecasts 0.25″ to 0.5″ inch of ice accumulating across across Texas, and nearly an inch in northern Louisiana into Mississippi. Then, cold air damming by the Appalachians keeps enough cold air at the surface (easterly winds) to put Atlanta under threat of significant icing. Not good!

After a sequence of events beginning in the Western Pacific Ocean led to disruption of the stratospheric polar vortex, a massive persistent circulation pattern has allowed the formation of extreme “cold pools” over Canada 🇨🇦 with air temperatures brutal cold throughout the entire troposphere: -40°F near the surface and -40°F at the mid-way point of 500 millibars.

The Polar Vortex Unleashed with multiple “lobes” dropping south and whipping through like a pendulum: next 7-days

Two swings of the “wrecking ball” from the tropospheric Polar Vortex anchored over Ontario, Canada 🇨🇦

The second Arctic blast is actually partly triggered by a PV anomaly in the Arctic north of Greenland that gets stretched, and descends the chute into 🇺🇸 pic.twitter.com/EiB8v0dmeL

— Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue) January 22, 2026

Arctic Blast 1.0 — Frigid as temperatures plummet into Texas and the Deep South. Absolutely brutal in the Midwest and Great Lakes with minus 20s and minus 30s — and that’s not the wind chill.

Low Temperatures on Saturday

Low Temperatures on Sunday

5°F in Dallas, Texas Monday morning –> frigid

But we are not done — the Polar Vortex anchored over Canada reloads with another massive blast of cold air into next week. That makes 3 total if you are counting!

Over the next week –>

Arctic Blast 1.0 and Arctic Blast 2.0 merge
into Super Arctic Blast
that will entomb the Eastern U.S. into a frigid hellscape.

Temperatures 35°F to 45°F below normal will cripple 🇺🇸 east of the Mississippi.

This is all-time historic vintage cold. pic.twitter.com/zNugF2QAqo

— Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue) January 22, 2026

You can see the evolution of the air mass colored by “deviation from normal” or anomaly, which I’ve color coded using a Barney and Baby Bop theme. This is on par with the O.G. polar vortex from January 2014 when social media (Twitter) weather was just getting started.

watch the animation here

And, that will be the end of January, and we will make it!

I made all of these maps and animations (from scratch w/raw data and code) and actually 90% of the weather maps that you see on social media. I don’t “dumb down” anything for my audience because I assume everyone has a PhD in something.

You can receive even MORE in depth weather articles at my growing Substack blog (Weather Trader)

Trump said on Thursday he had secured “total and permanent” US access to Greenland in a deal with NATO, whose head said allies would have to step up their commitment to Arctic security to ward off threats from Russia and China. 

News of a framework deal came as Trump backed off tariff threats against Europe and ruled out taking Greenland by force, bringing to an end what was brewing to be the biggest rupture in transatlantic ties in decades. Yet despite the optimism, details of any agreement were unclear and Denmark insisted its sovereignty over the island was not up for discussion. EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said the bloc’s U.S. relations had “taken a big blow” in the past week, as EU leaders met for an emergency summit.

Greenland’s Prime Minister Jens-Frederik Nielsen welcomed Trump’s comments but said he was still in the dark on many aspects.

“I don’t know what there is in the agreement, or the deal, about my country,” Nielsen told reporters in the capital Nuuk. 

“We are ready to discuss a lot of things and we are ready to negotiate a better partnership and so on. But sovereignty is a red line,” he said, when asked about reports that Trump was seeking control of areas around U.S. military bases in Greenland as part of a wider deal.

“We cannot cross the red lines. We have to respect our territorial integrity. We have to respect international law and sovereignty.”

Meanwhile, speaking to reporters aboard Air Force One on his return from the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Trump said a new deal was being negotiated that would be “much more generous to the United States, so much more generous.” And while he skirted questions on sovereignty, Trump said: “We have to have the ability to do exactly what we want to do.”

Earlier Trump told Fox Business Network the deal would essentially bring “total access” for the United States. “There’s no end, there’s no time limit.”

A source familiar with the matter told Reuters that NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte and Trump had agreed in Davos on further talks between the U.S., Denmark and Greenland on updating a 1951 agreement that governs U.S. military access and presence on the Arctic island. The framework they discussed also calls for prohibiting Chinese and Russian investments in Greenland, the person said.

Another source familiar with the matter said what had been agreed was “a frame on which to build,” adding that “anything being reported on specific details is speculative.”

Rutte told Reuters in Davos it was now up to NATO’s senior commanders to work through the details of extra security requirements.

“I have no doubt we can do this quite fast. Certainly, I would hope for 2026, I hope even early in 2026,” he said.

Meanwhile, the country that Greenland (semi-autonomously) belongs to, remains fully in the dark: Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said no negotiations had been held with NATO regarding the sovereignty of Greenland.

“It is still a difficult and serious situation, but progress has also been made in the sense that we have now got things where they need to be. Namely that we can discuss how we promote common security in the Arctic region,” she said.

Speaking later ahead of the emergency summit of EU leaders, Frederiksen called for a “permanent presence of NATO in the Arctic region, including around Greenland.”

Kallas said “disagreements that allies have between them, like Europe and America, are just benefiting our adversaries who are looking and enjoying the view.”

Finnish President Alexander Stubb said he hoped allies could put together a plan to boost Arctic security by a NATO summit in Ankara in July. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer told Rutte on Thursday that the UK stood ready to play its full part in ensuring security in the Arctic.

After meeting with Rutte, Trump said there could be a deal that satisfies his desire for a “Golden Dome” missile-defence system and access to critical minerals while blocking what he says are Russia and China’s ambitions in the Arctic. 

Adding to the confusion, Rutte said minerals exploitation was not discussed in his meeting with Trump, even though Trump said that it has been.Specific negotiations over the Arctic island would continue between the United States, Denmark and Greenland itself, he said.

The 1951 agreement established the U.S. right to construct military bases in Greenland and move around freely in Greenlandic territory. This is still the case as long as Denmark and Greenland are informed of its actions. Washington has a base at Pituffik in northern Greenland.

“It is important to clarify that the U.S. had 17 bases during the Cold War and much greater activity. So that is already possible now under the current agreement,” said Marc Jacobsen, a professor at the Royal Danish Defence College.

“I think there will be concrete discussions about Golden Dome, and I think there will be concrete discussions about Russia and China not being welcome in Greenland.”

Separately, China’s Foreign Ministry told Reuters on Friday that claims China is a threat are “baseless”, when asked to respond to the Arctic comments. At the same time, the ministry said that China opposes other countries using it as “an excuse” to push their own agenda.

China has repeatedly said its scientific expeditions in the Arctic and commercial shipping operations in the region followed international treaties and laws, accusing the West of distorting facts and hyping up its activities as clues to military intent. Last week, the state-backed Global Times newspaper said in an editorial that it ” firmly opposed attempts by the United States and Europe to label China with terms such as ‘military threat,’ ‘resource grabber’ or ‘rule breaker’ in Arctic affairs.”

Eslewhere, the president of the European Parliament said the European Union will likely resume work on a trade deal with the United States after Trump took back his tariff threats. The parliament decided this week to suspend work on the deal because of Trump’s threats. However, diplomats told Reuters EU leaders will rethink U.S. relations as the Greenland episode has badly shaken confidence in the transatlantic ties. Governments remain wary of another change of mind by Trump, who is increasingly seen as a bully whom Europe will have to stand up to, they said.

Residents in the Greenland capital, Nuuk, are also wary.

“It’s all very confusing,” said pensioner Jesper Muller. “One hour we are, well, almost at war. Next hour everything is fine and beautiful, and I think it’s very hard to imagine that you can build anything on it.”

Nobody asked Muller if he would rather have gotten $10 million and agree, together with the other 57,000 residents, to cede Greenland to the US.

Update (1230ET): Chatter about the potential intervention overnight in Japanese Yen (as we detailed below) is growing and has sparked a dramatic bid for the Japanese currency against the dollar…

…crashing the US Dollar Index…

And in case you wondered why an equity trader might care about chaos in the Japanese currency, here’s SocGen to explain:

Since the summer 2024 equity market sell-off (the yen carry-trade unwind)…there has been a curious relationship between the Japanese currency and the performance of short-term equity volatility in the US.

The gray line represents the returns from buying very short-term volatility on S&P500, and this part of the volatility surface has significantly underperformed since June 2025.

If the relationship is to continue, perhaps a stronger trade-weighted yen will be an important catalyst for a risk-off sentiment for the broader equity markets.

*  *  *

Technically, the Bank of Japan actions overnight should be seen as “a hawkish hold”, according to Goldman Sachs Delta-One desk-head Rich Privorotsky.

The Bank raised its growth estimate and maintained its hawkish inflation forecasts on Friday even as it kept interest rates steady, signaling its confidence a moderate recovery would justify raising still-low borrowing costs further.

While Ueda had suggested that overall inflation will weaken below 2% soon, he also left open the possibility of an early rate hike.

“April is a month where there’s relatively high numbers of price revisions,” Ueda said.

“We have a certain amount of interest in that, and while it’s not the most important factor in deciding the next rate hike, it’s one of the factors.”

The BOJ gave other signs of a more robust view, too.

It softened its assessment of economic risks as they are now generally balanced. With the negative impact of US tariffs receding, the bank cut the wording that it needs to watch if the economic outlook will materialize “without any preconceptions.”

However, Governor Ueda’s press conference leaned cautious on market functioning, flagging discomfort with the pace of long end moves and a willingness to act if volatility becomes disorderly.

Ueda said the central bank may conduct operations to smooth volatility in the bond market in a nimble fashion if needed, while indicating that exceptional circumstances would be needed.

“In a situation that’s different from usual, we could conduct nimble operations to encourage stable yield formation in the markets,” Ueda said.

“We’ll keep closely cooperating with the government and keep watching the situation while considering our respective roles.”

That’s not a return to formal YCC, but it does keep a soft backstop in place.

The immediate reaction made sense…

• front-end rates higher,

• some flattening further out,

• and FX weaker (could be a lot weaker if people think YCC is back).

It remains very hard to thread the needle of strong growth, high inflation, stable rates, and a stable currency.

Repatriation flows help at the margin, but the currency still looks like the pressure valve.

Privorotsky ended his note by pointing out that “sharp moves as this is going to press, curious if some intervention happening…”

“USD/JPY initially moved higher after Governor Ueda’s comments were interpreted as slightly more dovish on rate hikes,” said Fukuhiro Ezawa, head of markets Japan at Standard Chartered Bank in Tokyo.

“The pair then pulled back, prompting market chatter that the move may have reflected intervention or a rate check. USD/JPY subsequently drifted lower, though dip-buying emerged on the downside, allowing the pair to retrace part of the move.”

Around 2amET, as Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda ended his post-policy decision press conference, with JPY weakness accelerating above 159/USD (near the 160 Maginot Line), there was a sudden and very violent lurch higher in the yen (USDJPY puked 150pips in minutes)…

The volumes traded during that period were dramatically above normal..

But, not particularly significant relative to recent (alleged) interventions…

Of course, that could simply reflect the ever shrinking level of liquidity (and this lower level of actual intervention required to move the Japanese currency).

“It is tempting to conclude that we may be in the early stages of an official intervention,” said Valentin Marinov, strategist at Credit Agricole.

“The reaction is also showing how nervous the markets are when the JPY is trading so close to the ‘line in the sand’ – levels where we had interventions in the past.”

Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama declined to answer when asked if Japan had intervened in the market, keeping investors in the dark regarding the moment of yen volatility.

“We’re always watching with a sense of urgency,” she said.

As a reminder, the government spent almost $100 billion on yen-buying to prop up the currency in 2024.

On each of the four occasions the exchange rate was around 160 yen per dollar, setting that level as a rough marker for where action might take place again… and very close to where we saw this move overnight.

The bottom line is simple: by refusing to admit they can control two opposing variables simultaneously, they will lose control of everything and as Privorotsky notes… the currency will likely be the release valve (hence the ‘alleged’ intervention)

Overnight Ueda effectively confirmed YCC coming, sparking yen selloff… then immediate U-turn spike driven by what appears to be one-time small intervention by MOF/BOJ.

BOJ hoping to control yields (yen negative) while intervening in FX to prop it up.

Another disaster coming https://t.co/HLlYjAGN10

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) January 23, 2026

“Another disaster coming” indeed!

Authored by Kevin Stocklin via The Epoch Times,

America is officially out of the World Health Organization (WHO).

“Today, the United States withdrew from the World Health Organization, freeing itself from its constraints, as President [Donald] Trump promised on his first day in office,” Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Health and Human Services Secretary Robert Kennedy, Jr., declared in a Jan. 22 joint statement.

“This action responds to the WHO’s failures during the COVID-19 pandemic and seeks to rectify the harm from those failures inflicted on the American people.”

This is the latest move by an administration that has been highly skeptical of membership in a number of global organizations that, in Trump’s view, and that of many conservatives, compromise the sovereignty of the United States and operate counter to America’s interests. In January 2025, Trump withdrew the United States from the Paris Accord, which aims to limit global warming, and on Jan. 7, he withdrew en masse from 66 U.N.-sponsored climate and social justice organizations, among them the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change.

Trump’s decision to quit the WHO is “due to the organization’s mishandling of the COVID-19 pandemic that arose out of Wuhan, China, and other global health crises, its failure to adopt urgently needed reforms, and its inability to demonstrate independence from the inappropriate political influence of WHO member states,” a White House statement declared.

In this week’s executive order, dated Jan. 20, Trump directed that all U.S. funding for the WHO cease and all official U.S. representatives to the U.N. health subsidiary be recalled.

Under the terms of the original agreement establishing U.S. membership, the United States must give the WHO one year’s notice in order to withdraw from the organization. Trump gave such notice to the WHO upon taking office in 2025.

At that time, the WHO responded that it “regrets the announcement that the United States of America intends to withdraw from the Organization.”

“WHO plays a crucial role in protecting the health and security of the world’s people, including Americans, by addressing the root causes of disease, building stronger health systems, and detecting, preventing and responding to health emergencies, including disease outbreaks, often in dangerous places where others cannot go,” the WHO stated. 

Another condition for withdrawal under the original agreement is that the United States pay all unpaid dues it owes to the WHO, which is currently $278 million for the years 2024 and 2025. However, the Trump administration has stated that it will make no additional payments to the WHO. 

“The American people have paid more than enough,” a State Department spokesperson stated on Thursday.

America’s withdrawal has not been officially accepted by the WHO.

“The WHO refuses to hand over the American flag that hung in front of it, arguing it has not approved our withdrawal and, in fact, claims that we owe it compensation,” Rubio and Kennedy stated. “From our days as its primary founder, primary financial backer, and primary champion until now, our final day, the insults to America continue.”

Trump first attempted to withdraw the United States from the WHO in 2020 at the end of his first term; however, President Joe Biden reversed that move upon taking office in 2021. The Biden administration was also active in pushing for the United States to sign on to the WHO’s Pandemic Agreement, which, together with its International Health Regulations, was intended to give the WHO sweeping new powers to set policy for all member nations during pandemics and other “health emergencies” that the WHO might declare at its discretion. 

As part of America’s withdrawal from the WHO, Trump’s executive order stated that America will withdraw from negotiations of these agreements and that they “will have no binding force on the United States.”

Originally founded in 1948, the WHO included 194 nations among its members, prior to America’s withdrawal. The United States joined in 1948, following a joint resolution of Congress signed by President Harry Truman. 

The United States was required to fund 22 percent of the WHO’s budget, and has given the organization an average of $237 million per year between 2012 and 2024. 

Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times,

TikTok said on Jan. 22 it has formed an American majority-owned joint venture that would oversee data security and the content ecosystem in a bid to maintain its operations in the United States.

TikTok USDS Joint Venture LLC will operate as an independent entity overseen by a seven-member board of directors that includes TikTok CEO Shou Chew, Silver Lake co-CEO Egon Durban, Oracle executive vice president Kenneth Glueck, among others, according to a statement.

“The majority American owned Joint Venture will operate under defined safeguards that protect national security through comprehensive data protections, algorithm security, content moderation, and software assurances for U.S. users,” TikTok said in the statement.

The joint venture will be led by CEO Adam Presser and Chief Security Officer Will Farrell and is backed by three managing investors—tech company Oracle, private equity firm Silver Lake, and United Arab Emirates investment company MGX—each with a 15 percent stake.

ByteDance, the Beijing-based parent company of TikTok, retains a 19.9 percent stake, according to the statement. The new company is also backed by a consortium of investors that includes Dell Family Office, Vastmere Strategic Investments, Alpha Wave Partners, Revolution, Merritt Way, and Via Nova, among others.

TikTok said the joint venture will implement data privacy and cybersecurity measures to secure U.S. user data, apps, and algorithms, and put in place safety policies and content moderation to safeguard the content ecosystem.

The move complies with an executive order signed by President Donald Trump on Sept. 25, 2025, and will enable continued access to the video-sharing app for more than 200 million U.S. users, the company said.

TikTok had been required, under a law signed by President Joe Biden in 2024, to divest its U.S. assets or face a nationwide ban over national security concerns. Trump later delayed enforcement of that law after taking office for a second term in January 2025.

On Sept. 25, 2025, Trump issued an executive order outlining a framework for TikTok to continue its operations in the United States through a joint venture that is majority-owned by Americans and governed by rules protecting Americans’ data and national security.

Trump’s order requires U.S. user data to be stored in a cloud environment run by an American company. To address this, TikTok said in its statement that the USDS Joint Venture will use Oracle’s cloud to store the data.

TikTok has faced scrutiny amid concerns that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) could potentially access U.S. consumer data and the algorithm owned by ByteDance. U.S. officials have raised national security concerns about the app due to ByteDance’s alleged ties to the CCP, claims the company has denied.

Submitted by Criterion Research President James Bevan, 

An incoming winter ice storm is poised to crimp Appalachian natural gas production at a critical moment when the power grid faces mounting pressure from surging data center demand and extreme cold.

Appalachian volumes already plummeted 682/d to 34,745 MMcf/d as the ongoing cold snap hit supply. The region is down 2,189 MMcf/d versus recent two-week highs.

Freeze-offs are already taking effect, with Pittsburgh projected to experience overnight lows near 0°F by January 27.

Winter is Coming for Appalachia
This week’s Appalachian nat gas production is already down 1.1 Bcf/d versus last week, and the extreme cold is just getting started.

Pittsburgh overnight lows are headed to -6.8°F at their most intense levels next week, with this cold coming in… pic.twitter.com/l2oyl80cfe

— Criterion Research (@PipelineFlows) January 22, 2026

The Moisture Problem

The critical difference between ice storms and snow is moisture. Freezing rain, sleet, and ice create wet conditions that prove far more problematic than dry snow. For the Northeast pipeline system, ice and sleet storms pose significantly higher risks to sustained gas production compared to snow events.

Freezing liquid accumulation causes multiple failure modes: frozen dump valves block separators and pneumatic controls, ice accumulation damages exposed infrastructure and above-ground systems, rapid freezing exacerbates blockages and underground damage, and operational shutdowns from structural failures account for substantial cold-weather incidents. Internal freeze-offs—when ice freezes on valves and equipment—obstruct gas flow throughout the system.

NOAA’s latest forecast shows freezing rain concentrations from Texas to the Carolinas, with six-inch snowfall probabilities concentrated in Appalachia. Ice accumulation is expected across the region through January 26.

Grid Stress Mounting

Complicating the supply disruption is explosive demand-side growth from data centers, which have become one of the fastest-growing electricity consumers in the power sector. As AI computing facilities proliferate across the Northeast, winter power demand is spiking precisely when weather threatens production. Preliminary guidance suggests freeze-offs could drop production by 5-8 Bcf/d, with >10-15 Bcf/d possible if infrastructure sustains damage.

PJM observed demand flows are already pointing higher on the Criterion Mapping Analytics Platform – and the cold is only starting to migrate in.

This dual squeeze – compressed supply from weather events and surging electricity demand from data center buildout – is testing the grid’s ability to maintain supply during extreme weather.

The convergence represents a critical vulnerability: production-constrained Appalachia feeding a power system increasingly dependent on digital infrastructure, while winter extremes threaten both simultaneously.

Russia’s President Putin held a late-night meeting Thursday at the Kremlin with the US delegation led by White House special envoy Steve Witkoff, just hours ahead of planned trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi Friday aimed at pushing the Trump-backed peace framework to end the war in Ukraine.

Kremlin foreign policy aide Yuri Ushakov soon after the four-hour discussion called the engagement “substantive” and “frank” – and mentioned it was conducted with an unusually high level of mutual trust, which typically suggests hard truths were exchanged behind closed doors.

Witkoff was again accompanied by Jared Kushner, President Trump’s son-in-law, with the pair arriving in Moscow from the World Economic Forum in Davos, at which Witkoff publicly stated his view that Russia and Ukraine may be edging closer to a deal:

“The president has talked about a tariff-free zone from Ukraine that I think would be game-changing,” Witkoff said at the Ukrainian Breakfast on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in the Swiss Alps resort town.

“I think we made a lot of progress. I think in the beginning of this process there was a little bit of confusion,” he said.

Still, following the late night meeting the Kremlin said the “territorial issue” remains unresolved, as the Ukrainian side is still pushing for a freeze of the front lines, while Moscow seeks a final political settlement which falls nothing short of full recognition of its hold over the four eastern territories.

Ushakov’s further conclusion was that while Moscow and Washington are both “sincerely interested” in a political and diplomatic resolution, until such a deal is reached, Russia will continue pursuing its objectives on the battlefield as it maintains the strategic upper hand.

“Russia would continue to consistently pursue the objectives … on the battlefield, where the Russian armed forces hold the strategic initiative,” Ushakov said.

He stressed that any illusion of compromise has limits, explaining that without a settlement on territorial control, “there can be no long-term agreement” – which of course sends the strong signal that Moscow is not budging, at least publicly, on its demand to retain control of the Donbas region.

The Kremlin aide also mentioned that discussions touched on Trump’s invitation for Russia to join his proposed “Board of Peace” initiative, as well as rising tensions related to the US seeking control over Greenland. Moscow has seen itself on the sidelines regarding this, with President Putin having said this week that Denmark and the US will have to sort it out.

Ushakov reiterated that Russia would be willing to contribute the $1 billion required for permanent membership in the ‘board of peace’ but has come up with a creative condition: the funds must come from Russian assets currently frozen in the US following the invasion of Ukraine. Frozen assets which remain after that could be focused on post-war reconstruction for Ukraine, the Kremlin aide indicated.

Important Russia 🇷🇺–US 🇺🇸discussion in the Kremlin today. President Putin received Peacemakers Steven Witkoff, Jared Kushner and Josh Gruenbaum. President aide Yury Ushakov and myself also participated. 🕊️ pic.twitter.com/I3E4Op5V9i

— Kirill Dmitriev (@kadmitriev) January 23, 2026

Overall, as expected this exchange with the US delegation didn’t produce much, except to make clear each’s position and to at least keep bilateral US-Russia relations on a positive, communicative track. But it really does underscore that after a year of the Trump administration pressing hard for a peace deal, the warring sides are in fact no closer to the goal line.

Submitted by @RyanMaue,

A meteorologist’s main purpose: keep you alive, and marked safe.✅

There is nothing we can do to stop this epic week of weather, and believe me, I have been trying to find silver linings or rays of sunlight.

So, the best preparation is fresh, accurate, and expert information from trusted sources.

While every new weather model run (alphabet soup of acronyms) shows slight adjustments in who gets the most freezing rain (ice) and snowfall❄️ there is little doubt about the aftermath of the massive ice storm: hazardous cold like January 21, 1985 when the United States 🇺🇸 average low temperature sunk to 4°F.

Many of these record lows are still standing.

⚠️You should be prepared for extended power outages with subzero temperatures outdoors. Think about where you can go, what you can do, and who needs even more help to survive this week ahead. This is not hype or a joke.

Temperature Analysis January 21, 1985 | PRISM Oregon State

Let’s dig in (or out) of this Winter Storm that is actually 2 waves of moisture that finally consolidate into a rather powerful Nor’easter.

If you’re younger than 40 years old, then you may be experiencing the worst winter weather of your lifetime depending upon where you are over the next 10-14 days.

Plan for extended power outages with brutally cold temperatures for many days. pic.twitter.com/GYaXpU3A8Z

— Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue) January 22, 2026

ECMWF 12z HRES Precipitation Type and Intensity

A massive “slug of moisture” will stream out of the subtropical Pacific and then the Gulf of Mexico to combine into an “atmospheric river”. Normally that would be heavy rain and maybe snowfall where the air is below freezing.

Not this time — we will have extremely cold Arctic air flooding southward: and the atmospheric river will go up and over the more dense cold air near the surface. When the warmer subtropical moisture falls through the : it turns to snow or freezing rain or sleet.

Total Snowfall Amounts (NOAA Blend of Models — trust this b/c it includes the ECMWF or Euro flagship model) may be an underestimate (!)

Freezing Rain Expected from Winter Storm

We can partition the precipitation (called QPF for quantitative precipitation forecast) into rain, snow, sleet, and freezing rain by using the temperature and humidity of the column of air above the surface.

These amounts forecast by ECMWF 12z will not all immediately freeze on contact with surfaces like trees and power lines, but a LOT of it will accrete, and cause potentially catastrophic damage.

The National Weather Service forecasts 0.25″ to 0.5″ inch of ice accumulating across across Texas, and nearly an inch in northern Louisiana into Mississippi. Then, cold air damming by the Appalachians keeps enough cold air at the surface (easterly winds) to put Atlanta under threat of significant icing. Not good!

After a sequence of events beginning in the Western Pacific Ocean led to disruption of the stratospheric polar vortex, a massive persistent circulation pattern has allowed the formation of extreme “cold pools” over Canada 🇨🇦 with air temperatures brutal cold throughout the entire troposphere: -40°F near the surface and -40°F at the mid-way point of 500 millibars.

The Polar Vortex Unleashed with multiple “lobes” dropping south and whipping through like a pendulum: next 7-days

Two swings of the “wrecking ball” from the tropospheric Polar Vortex anchored over Ontario, Canada 🇨🇦

The second Arctic blast is actually partly triggered by a PV anomaly in the Arctic north of Greenland that gets stretched, and descends the chute into 🇺🇸 pic.twitter.com/EiB8v0dmeL

— Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue) January 22, 2026

Arctic Blast 1.0 — Frigid as temperatures plummet into Texas and the Deep South. Absolutely brutal in the Midwest and Great Lakes with minus 20s and minus 30s — and that’s not the wind chill.

Low Temperatures on Saturday

Low Temperatures on Sunday

5°F in Dallas, Texas Monday morning –> frigid

But we are not done — the Polar Vortex anchored over Canada reloads with another massive blast of cold air into next week. That makes 3 total if you are counting!

Over the next week –>

Arctic Blast 1.0 and Arctic Blast 2.0 merge
into Super Arctic Blast
that will entomb the Eastern U.S. into a frigid hellscape.

Temperatures 35°F to 45°F below normal will cripple 🇺🇸 east of the Mississippi.

This is all-time historic vintage cold. pic.twitter.com/zNugF2QAqo

— Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue) January 22, 2026

You can see the evolution of the air mass colored by “deviation from normal” or anomaly, which I’ve color coded using a Barney and Baby Bop theme. This is on par with the O.G. polar vortex from January 2014 when social media (Twitter) weather was just getting started.

watch the animation here

And, that will be the end of January, and we will make it!

I made all of these maps and animations (from scratch w/raw data and code) and actually 90% of the weather maps that you see on social media. I don’t “dumb down” anything for my audience because I assume everyone has a PhD in something.

You can receive even MORE in depth weather articles at my growing Substack blog (Weather Trader)

US stock futures are lower with tech stocks lagging as Intel plunged 14% after the chipmaker warned it was struggling with manufacturing problems leading to poor Q1 guidance. As of 8:00am ET, S&P and Nasdaq futures are down 0.1% but off session lows (and well off session highs), paring losses as Nvidia shares gained after Bloomberg reported Chinese officials have told the country’s largest tech firms they can prepare orders for Nvidia’s H200 AI chips. Mag 7 are mixed with NVDA leading gains after Chinese officials were said to have told the country’s largest tech firms, including Alibaba Group Holding Ltd., they can prepare orders for Nvidia Corp.’s H200 AI chips. Bond yields are mostly unchanged; USD is flat. Japan’s top currency official declined to comment on whether the government stepped into the market after USD/JPY plunged over 150 pips in just a few minutes. The pair swiftly bounced and is now around 158.30 having topped 159 during the Bank of Japan press conference after Governor Ueda didn’t offer any clear signal that an early rate hike was possible. The pound sits atop the G-10 FX pile, rising 0.2% against the greenback after PMI topped estimates and hawkish remarks from BOE’s. Commodities are mostly higher led by Oil (+1.5%); both base metals and precious metals are higher with silver trading just under $100/oz. The key macro focus today were global PMIs.

In premarket trading, Magnificent Seven stock are mixed: Nvidia gains 1.5% after Chinese officials were said to have told the country’s largest tech firms, including Alibaba Group Holding Ltd., they can prepare orders for Nvidia Corp.’s H200 AI chips (Tesla -0.1%, Microsoft +0.04%, Amazon +0.1%, Alphabet +0.01%, Apple -0.08%, Meta -0.5%)

• Solar stocks are extending gains after Elon Musk commented on solar-powered satellites in his Davos talk on Thursday. Array Technologies (ARRY) +2%, First Solar (FSLR) +1.4%.
• Booz Allen (BAH) rises 5% after the defense contractor boosted its adjusted earnings per share guidance for the full year, with the new outlook beating the average analyst estimate.
• Capital One Financial Corp. (COF) falls 2% after the bank reported adjusted earnings per share for the fourth quarter that missed the average analyst estimate, driven by higher-than-expected costs. The firm also said it agreed to acquire Brex.
• CSX Corp. (CSX) gains 2% after the freight transportation company provided some guidance for 2026, including low single-digit revenue growth.
• Intel (INTC) plunges 13% after Chief Executive Officer Lip-Bu Tan gave a lackluster forecast and warned that the chipmaker was struggling with manufacturing problems. The stock closed Thursday at the highest level since 2022.
• Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) gains 1.5% after the medical equipment firm reported adjusted earnings per share for the fourth quarter that surpassed estimates. Analysts note that the results were largely in line with the company’s pre-announcement.

In corporate news, Amazon.com is gearing up to ax thousands more corporate employees, ratcheting up efforts to streamline bureaucracy. Apple accused the European Commission of using “political delay tactics” to postpone new app policies as a pretense to investigate and fine the iPhone maker. TikTok and its Chinese parent ByteDance have closed a long-awaited deal to transfer parts of their US operations to American investors, securing the popular video app’s future in the US and avoiding a nationwide ban.

Even with the S&P just shy of all time highs, investors have been quietly trying to sidestep bouts of volatility driven by US policies, highlighted this week by Trump’s push to assert greater control over Greenland. While the outlook for US stocks remains strong, traders are also looking elsewhere for pockets of calm and opportunity.

“I hope that the geopolitical situation starts to ease so that the market can focus on substance versus noise,” said Andrea Gabellone, head of global equities at KBC Global Services. “Full-year 2026 guidances are, in my view, the most crucial piece of data the market has been waiting for quite some time, given valuations and growth expectations.”

Small caps extended a winning streak over large-cap cohorts amid concern about a possible AI bubble and bets that an economic recovery will filter to broader swathes of the economy. The Russell 2000’s outperformance of the S&P 500 in 2026 is the longest such streak in 30 years.  

“Typically, safe bonds and Treasuries have been a source of diversification during times of uncertainty, but particularly Treasuries haven’t provided any cushion over the past days,” said Philipp Lisibach, head of strategy and research at LGT Private Banking. “That’s also why gold continues to rally.”

In Asia, the Bank of Japan maintained its benchmark rate and issued higher inflation forecasts. While Governor Kazuo Ueda suggested that inflation will weaken below 2% soon, he also left open the possibility of an early rate hike. “The challenge is balancing rate hikes to support the yen without slowing growth,” wrote Min Joo Kang, senior economist at ING Bank. “Timing is uncertain, but we now see a June hike as the base case.”

Elsewhere, the US wants to rewrite its defense agreement with Denmark to remove any limits on its military presence in Greenland, people familiar with the matter said. And the Kremlin said the “territorial issue” remains unresolved after Putin held late-night talks with US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner about the latest plan to end Russia’s war on Ukraine. Talks continue between US, Russian and Ukrainian representatives in the United Arab Emirates on Friday and Saturday. 

Trump said he has finished interviewing candidates to serve as the next Fed chair and reiterated that he has someone in mind for the job. His shortlist includes National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, BlackRock executive Rick Rieder, current Fed Governor Christopher Waller and a former governor, Kevin Warsh. 

The Stoxx 600 falls 0.1%. Telecoms and energy sectors outperform, while travel and consumer product shares lag. The focus fell on the Amsterdam debut of armored vehicle and munitions maker CSG NV. The stock opened 28% higher after the largest-ever initial public offering globally for a pure-play defense firm, highlighting growing appetite for the sector. Here are the biggest movers Friday:

• Ericsson shares surge as much as 12% after the telecom equipment maker reported stronger-than-expected sales in the core networks division, driven by mission-critical projects
• Siemens Energy gains as much as 2.6% to a record high after UBS raised its recommendation to buy from sell and lifted its PT to €175 from €38
• SFS Group shares gain as much as 7.4%, hitting their highest level since May, after analysts said the Swiss tool and component supplier delivered stronger growth than expected in a challenging market
• SSP shares climb as much as 4.1%, the most in a month, after the travel food and beverage outlet operator reported first-quarter results which showed continued positive trading momentum and reassured analysts
• Watches of Switzerland shares rise as much as 6.4% to the highest level since February 2025 after the luxury watch seller acquired Deutsch & Deutsch, a retailer with four showrooms and Rolex distribution in Texas
• Castellum gains as much as 2.6% after Goldman Sachs upgraded its view on the Swedish property firm to buy from neutral in a review of the European real estate sector, where it also upgrades Colonial to neutral from sell
• Babcock International shares drop as much as 3.8% after the support services company said CEO David Lockwood is retiring and will be succeeded by the head of its Nuclear division, Harry Holt
• Edenred shares fall as much as 3.2%, while Pluxee declines as much as 4.7% as UBS downgrades both French-listed meal-voucher stocks, saying the regulatory “tide is turning” against the sector
• C&C Group shares plunge as much as 18%, briefly slumping to their lowest level since 2009, after the alcoholic beverage maker said trading has been worse than expected

Earlier, Asian stocks gained for a second consecutive session, erasing their losses for the week, as fears over tariffs and Greenland faded.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 0.4% on Friday, with Alibaba, MediaTek and TSMC among the biggest boosts. Korea’s Kospi advanced to a fresh record near the 5,000 level. Stocks also gained in Taiwan, Japan and Hong Kong. The regional gauge is on track to end the week steady after rising for four straight weeks. Investors are shifting focus back to earnings and the outlook for the artificial intelligence trade after US President Donald Trump backed off from putting tariffs on European nations due to tensions over Greenland. Meanwhile, most central banks in the region are cutting rates and economic growth is expected to improve. Equities rose in Tokyo as the yen weakened after the Bank of Japan held interest rates steady as expected. The Straits Times Index rose to a record as Singapore started handing out some of the S$5 billion it plans to invest in local stocks to selected fund managers.

In FX, Japan’s top currency official declined to comment on whether the government stepped into the market after USD/JPY plunged over 150 pips in just a few minutes. The pair swiftly bounced and is now around 158.30 having topped 159 during the Bank of Japan press conference after Governor Ueda didn’t offer any clear signal that an early rate hike was possible. The pound sits atop the G-10 FX pile, rising 0.2% against the greenback after PMI topped estimates and hawkish remarks from BOE’s Greene that also weighed on shorter-dated gilts.

In rates, the yield on 10-year US Treasuries hovered near the highest since September, holding small gains with long-end yields about 2bp richer on the day, flattening the curve. European bonds underperform following UK retail sales and European PMI gauges. US stock futures little changed while crude oil is up nearly 2%.US yields are 1bp-2bp richer across the curve with 2s10s and 5s30s spreads flatter by about 1bp; 10-year near 4.23% is 1.7bp lower on the day with German counterpart little changed and UK cheaper by about 1bp. Focal points of US session include S&P Global US PMIs and University of Michigan sentiment gauge, as well as next week’s supply — both corporate and Treasury coupon auctions scheduled to start Monday. 

In commodities, spot silver rises 2.5% while gold erased an earlier gain to trade lower. Silver rose just shy of $100 and will likely surpass the key level today…

… as the Shanghai silver premium jumped 50% overnight to a record 12.

Precious metals are expected to remain in demand should investors continue to diversify away from US assets in response to erratic US policy and heightened geopolitical risk.Renewed concern about the possibility of US military action against Iran is spurring oil prices. WTI crude futures rise 1.7% to near $60.40; and Brent is at $65 in New York.  

Today’s economic calendar includes January preliminary S&P Global US PMIs (9:45am), November Leading Index, January final University of Michigan sentiment (10am) and Kansas City Fed services activity (11am). Friday is slower for company earnings, with SLB slated to report before the market opens.  Capital One’s fourth-quarter revenues came in slightly higher than expected, but EPS missed, and the bank agreed to buy Brex, a fintech company focused on corporate expense management and accounting, for  $5.15 billion.Next week is the busiest of this earnings season, when companies speaking for more than a third of the S&P 500’s total market value will report.

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini -0.1%
• Nasdaq 100 mini -0.1%
• Russell 2000 mini -0.2%
• Stoxx Europe 600 -0.3%
• DAX -0.2%
• CAC 40 -0.5%
• 10-year Treasury yield -1 basis point at 4.24%
• VIX +0.5 points at 16.16
• Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1201.56, euro -0.2% at $1.1735
• WTI crude +1.4% at $60.2/barrel

Top Overnight News

• Russia said it will hold security talks with the U.S. and Ukraine in Abu Dhabi on Friday, but warned after a late-night meeting between President Vladimir Putin and three U.S. envoys that a durable peace would not be possible unless territorial issues were resolved. RTRS
• The US wants to rewrite its defense agreement with Denmark to remove any limits on its military presence in Greenland, people familiar said. It currently says the US must “consult with and inform” the two. Donald Trump also mused on social media about invoking NATO’s collective defense clause to protect the US’s southern border. BBG
• Trump on Thursday said he does not like the idea of letting people use 401(k) retirement funds for a down payment on a house, even though it was floated by his own chief economic adviser, Kevin Hassett. RTRS
• Trump thanks Chinese President Xi for working with the US and ultimately approving the TikTok deal, adds that Xi could have gone the other way.
• Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in an interview Thursday that the U.S. relationship with China has reached a “very good equilibrium” where disagreements are less likely to turn into full-scale economic conflict as they did last year. Politico
• Chinese officials have told the country’s largest tech firms they can prepare orders for Nvidia’s H200 AI chips, people familiar said, suggesting Beijing is close to formally approving imports. Nvidia shares jumped (NVDA +128 bps premkt). BBG
• BOJ keeps key policy rate steady at 0.75% as widely expected. The BOJ retained its hawkish inflation forecasts on Friday and stressed it will remain vigilant to price risks from a weak yen, signaling that policymakers intend to keep raising still-low borrowing costs in a politically charged atmosphere. RTRS
• China could set this year’s GDP target at 4.5-5% (vs. “about 5%” in the last three years), signaling a tolerance for modest growth deceleration as it works toward rebalancing the economy. SCMP
• Eurozone flash PMIs for Jan are mixed, with a shortfall in services (51.9 vs. the Street 52.6) and modestly better manufacturing (49.4 vs. the Street 49.2), and the details were mixed too (new orders rose, although employment deteriorated while inflation intensified vs. Dec). S&P Global
• The US urged grid operators to tap backup power, including from data centers, as a record winter storm threatens blackouts nationwide. Texas is under particular stress, while airlines brace for disruption. BBG
• US House passes package of FY26 funding bills in a major step towards averting government shutdown on Jan 31st; sending to Senate for final votes.
• US House Speaker Johnson said there is no GOP consensus on whether to use tariff revenue to send $2k checks out.

Trade/Tariffs

• EU official said India and EU will announce a free trade agreement as soon as next week.
• EU Official announces that the India-EU FTA will lead to substantially lower tariffs.
• The Trump administration pushed out 2 key officials focused on countering technological threats from China, the WSJ reported citing sources; this has raised concerns among US security hawks about the softer stance towards China.
• Spanish PM Sanchez said the US is provoking tension in the Transatlantic, EU have the instruments to respond proportionally to coercion.
• The EU is moving to revive its US trade deal after President Trump backed away from his tariff threat tied to Greenland.
• US President Trump said the people who brought the tariff legislation against the US are strongly China-oriented; the US is going so well, giant growth and investment with almost no inflation.

BOJ

• BoJ maintains its short-term interest rate at 0.75%, as expected; 8-1 vote split with Takata voting for a 25bps hike.
• BoJ Governor Ueda (post-policy presser) said headline inflation soon to undershoot 2%; not yet at the stage to mull if goal achievement is coming earlier. Will conduct monetary policy in such a way as to ensure they do not fall behind the curve. Will keep raising rates if the economic outlook is realized. It will take a while before the full impact of tightening is seen across the economy, conditions remain accommodative after the December move. Will conduct nimble market operations to respond to irregular moves; will work closely with the government on long-term rates. Operations could be conducted to encourage stable yield formation. Must pay attention to even small FX moves as underlying inflation approaches 2%.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded entirely in the green, though without a clear sector-led driver, as regional sentiment stayed broadly constructive. ASX 200 posted modest gains, supported by strength in mining and metals as gold, silver and platinum extended their bid. A strong PMI print — with both manufacturing and services pushing further into expansion — added to the positive tone. Nikkei 225 gapped higher at the open but later pared part of its advance, pressured by chip stocks after weak Intel earnings. Offsetting some of the drag, videogame names outperformed, with Nintendo (+5%) boosted by strong US Switch 2 sales data. Following the BoJ rate decision, the Nikkei was unreactive as rates remained unchanged. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp opened higher, with the Hang Seng outperforming after Alibaba (+3.6%) was reported to be preparing the listing of its chipmaking arm. Metals strength following fresh records in gold and silver also supported both indices.

Top Asian News

• Chinese President Xi had a phone call with Brazilian President Lula, Xinhua reported. China is willing to cooperate with Brazil in different areas.

European bourses are trading largely on the backfoot, in contrast to the broadly positive action seen overnight. European sectors are trading mostly in the red. Leading sectors are Telecommunications (+1.1%), Energy (+1.2%) and Healthcare (+0.4%). Telecommunication has been given a boost by Ericsson (+8.3%) after the Co. reported strong Q4 earnings, whilst stronger crude prices has underpinned the Energy sector. On the flip side, Construction (-0.9%), Travel (-1.0%) and Financial Services (-0.5%) lag – no fresh newsflow driving the move.

Top European News

• Germany’s core budget had borrowing of EUR 66.9bln instead of the allocated EUR 81.8bln, according to sources. Sources also reported that total investment hits record level of EUR 86.8bln in 2025.
• French parliament finds confidence in PM Lecornu (i.e. the no-confidence motion failed); another motion to follow shortly.

FX

• DXY is incrementally firmer this morning and trades within a 98.25-98.48 range, which is towards the lower end of the prior day’s confines. Newsflow for the index is lacking this morning, with all attention on the upcoming trilateral meeting between US-Russia-Ukraine; Trump reminded that “anytime we meet, it is good”.
• JPY currently the top G10 performer this morning. Earlier, the BoJ kept rates steady (subject to dissent) and upwardly revised their 2026 inflation forecasts – spurring upside in the JPY at the time, but gradually waned into the Ueda meeting. The Governor avoided any overt hike signal, but noted that they are wary of a “rapid” rise in yields, also adding that they “must pay attention to even small FX moves” (strengthening JPY).
• Thereafter, a significant bout of pressure was seen in USD/JPY, soon after Ueda concluded its presser. In more detail, USD/JPY fell from 159.10 to 157.32 in an immediate reaction, before gradually scaling back to around 158.00 mark where the pair currently resides. Some had touted intervention, though Bloomberg’s Cudmore suggested the move is a rate check (i.e. the MOF calling round to see where banks think the JPY should be). In response, Finance Minister Katayama declined to comment if they intervened in the FX market, instead reiterating that they are watching FX moves with a high sense of urgency.
• G10s are mixed against the Dollar. GBP is towards the top of the pile, with upside facilitated by a hotter-than-expected Retail Sales report (which also included upward revisions to the prior); PMI figures this morning also paint a positive activity picture in the region. Thereafter, Cable took another leg higher to a session peak of 1.3532 after BoE’s Greene said, “forward indicators for wage growth are even more concerning than inflation expectations”, with other commentary generally striking a typical hawkish tone.
• Elsewhere, EUR is mildly lower; earlier slipped to session lows on the subdued French PMI metrics (Services surprisingly contracted), but then jumped on the upbeat German figures.

Fixed Income

• JGBs are lower by c. 40 ticks at the moment, with downside of just under 50 at most at a 131.32 session low. Action that comes after the BoJ and Ueda’s presser where, in short, the narrative is that April is the earliest point for a hike, as Ueda specifically referenced seeing price behaviour for that period as a “factor to mull a hike”. Though, JGBs remain markedly clear of their WTD 130.66 trough and by extension yields are off WTD highs. Nonetheless, the week’s action, driven by fiscal commentary and the BoJ, has sparked a modest shift in market pricing; with 21bps of tightening currently implied by June vs c. 18bps last week; for April, its 14bps currently vs 11bps last week.
• USTs a tick or two higher in a very thin 111-19 to 112-23 band, awaiting the trilateral summit re. Ukraine (timing TBC), flash PMIs and the potentially imminent Fed Chair announcement.
• Bunds, in contrast, are a tick or two lower. But, also in a narrow 127.64-84 band. Modest two-way action on but no real move to the January Flash PMIs, as political uncertainty re. France and the latest geopolitical/tariff gyrations potentially making some of the responses redundant.
• OATs are broadly in-line with core benchmarks. Towards the mid-point of 121.10 to 121.27 parameters. Earlier, the French parliament found confidence in PM Lecornu (as expected), though he is still subject to another no-confidence motion. Into this, the OAT-Bund 10yr yield spread has widened a touch, out to 63bps, but within comfortable and familiar territory.
• Gilts outperform. Gains of 32 ticks at best to a 91.68 high, currently holding around 10 ticks off that. Upside despite the strong December Retail Sales release and upward revisions to the November Y/Y components. Data that appears to have been overshadowed by a reassessment of the political risk after Thursday’s Burnham-induced sell-off; as more commentators pick up on the detail that Burnham’s path to becoming an MP is tricky, and largely dependent on the pro-Starmer Labour NEC.
• However, the move for Gilts unwound after strong UK PMIs and hawkish commentary from BoE’s Greene, points that were enough to take the benchmark to near enough flat on the day.

Commodities

• In short, the commodity space awaits the trilateral summit between Ukraine, Russia and the US today and potentially into tomorrow. Timing and details around the meeting are currently light, though we do know the attendees. From Ukraine, Umerrov, Budanov, Arakhamia and Hnatov. From Russia, Kostyukov; note, Dmitriev is also in the UAE, unclear if he will partake. From the US, Witkoff and Kushner.
• Crude is firmer by just under a USD a barrel. Towards highs of USD 60.22/bbl and USD 64.93/bbl for WTI and Brent, respectively. Upside that is more a consolidation from the downside seen on Thursday than a fundamentally-driven move higher.
• XAU pulled back in the early European morning. A move that, interestingly, occurred alongside downside in US equity futures at the time. As such, the move is perhaps profit-taking from recent gains; we also note similar action in silver at the time, though XAG remains firmer on the day. Spot gold briefly broke below USD 4.9k/oz, after hitting USD 4967/oz overnight.
• Base metals feature gains in 3M LME Copper. Upside that seemingly occurred alongside strength in China overnight. At best 3M LME to USD 12.97k/T. Note, Shanghai Futures Exchange is to adjust price limits and margin ratios for nickel, aluminium, lead, zinc, and stainless-steel futures as of the 27th January settlement.
• China’s Shanghai Futures Exchange will adjust price limits and margin ratios for nickel, aluminium, lead, zinc, and stainless-steel futures following the 27th of January closing settlement.
• China is reportedly set to offer CNY-denominated liquefied natural gas futures contracts as early as February, according to sources.
• Goldman Sachs lowers its Summer’26 Henry Hub forecast to USD 3.75/MMBtu (prev. USD 4.50/MMBtu), maintains 2027 forecast at USD 3.80/MMBtu.
• US President Trump said Venezuelan oil will be divided up.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

• Russia’s Kremlin said discussions in Abu Dhabi will happen today and will continue tomorrow if necessary. Russia’s sovereign assets frozen in the US amount to a little less than USD 5bln. Not looking to go into details on the “Anchorage Formula” for peace agreement with Ukraine.
• Ukrainian President Zelensky said he discussed with US President Trump additional air defence missiles, and provisions for PAC-3 & anti-ballistic missiles.
• Ukraine President Zelensky said he is waiting for US President Trump, a date, and a place for the signing of security guarantees.
• Russia’s Kremlin said Greenland proposal and Board of Peace were discussed with US envoys; talks were constructive. Without solving the territorial issue, there is no prospect of long-term settlement in Ukraine.
• Russian envoy Dmitriev called the meeting between President Putin and US envoys important.
• Russia’s Kremlin said the talks between President Putin and US envoys have concluded.
• US President Trump said Russian President Putin, alongside others, will have to make concessions to end the war in Ukraine. Putin and Zelensky want to make a deal. Ukraine war doesn’t affect the US, it affects Europe.
• EU Commission President von der Leyen said Europe will continue to work on Arctic security, step up investments in Greenland and Arctic-ready equipment and deepen cooperation with partners in the region. Well-prepared with measures if tariffs are applied. Europe should use defence spending ‘surge’ on Arctic-ready equipment. Close to prosperity deal with the US and Ukraine.
• US President Trump said the US will work with NATO on Greenland security; there are good things for Europe within the framework. On the trilateral meeting with Ukraine and Russia, said “anytime we meet, it is good”. There will be something on Greenland in 2 weeks.
• Russian defence ministry reported strategic bomber patrols conducted over Baltic Sea.

Geopolitics: Middle East

• Israeli officials reportedly express concern that they could be targeted in retaliation by Iran in response to a US strike, FT reported citing sources.
• US President Trump, on Iran, said they have a big force going towards Iran; watching Iran very closely and would rather not see something happen on Iran; will be doing a 25% secondary tariff on Iran.

Geopolitics: Others

• US President Trump posted that the Board of Peace withdraws its offer for Canada to join.
• US President Trump posted “Maybe we should have put NATO to the test: Invoked Article 5, and forced NATO to come here and protect our Southern Border from further Invasions of Illegal Immigrants”.
• US House narrowly rejects resolution to limit President Trump’s war powers in Venezuela.
• US President Trump said Chinese President Xi will come to the US towards the end of the year.
• NATO’s Rutte and Denmark’s PM is to meet on Friday morning.
• Russian defence ministry reported strategic bomber patrols conducted over Baltic Sea.

US Event Calendar

• 9:45 am: United States Jan P S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI, est. 52, prior 51.8
• 9:45 am: United States Jan P S&P Global US Services PMI, est. 52.9, prior 52.5
• 9:45 am: United States Jan P S&P Global US Composite PMI, est. 53, prior 52.7
• 10:00 am: United States Nov Leading Index, est. -0.2%
• 10:00 am: United States Jan F U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 54, prior 54

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

The market recovery continued yesterday, as easing geopolitical risks and a strong batch of US data led to growing optimism on the near-term outlook. That meant the S&P 500 (+0.55%) rose for a second day running, moving back within 1% of its record high. And for some assets, it was almost like the selloff never happened, with the VIX index of volatility (-1.26pts) back at 15.64pts, which is beneath its levels prior to Saturday’s tariff announcements, whilst US HY spreads (-4bps) closed at their tightest level since 2007, at 250bps. So it was a strong day for the most part, and the risk-on tone also sent 2yr Treasury yields (+2.4bps) to a 6-week high of 3.61%. Nevertheless, there’s still a lot of focus on the precise details of what the framework over Greenland will include, and there was lingering caution that the geopolitical risk hasn’t entirely gone away. So gold prices (+2.16%) kept up their recent momentum, rising to $4,936/oz by yesterday’s close, and they’ve posted a further gain up to $4,966/oz this morning.

In terms of the Greenland situation, there weren’t any explicit updates yesterday, but multiple press outlets reported that the talks between President Trump and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte had focused on reopening the 1951 agreement between the US and Denmark over Greenland’s defence. Bloomberg reported that it would involve the stationing of US missiles, with the US seeking to remove any limits on its military presence in Greenland, whilst Trump himself said in an interview on Fox Business that “essentially, it’s total access.” Trump was also asked if the US would acquire Greenland, and he said “It’s possible. But in the meantime, we’re getting everything we wanted, total security.” Meanwhile, after the de-escalation the previous day, there were limited news from a summit of EU leaders, with Commission President von der Leyen saying the bloc would engage with the US in a “firm but non-escalatory” manner.

With fears ebbing about a military or economic escalation, this was very positive for global risk assets yesterday. Moreover, European markets did particularly well, because they finally reacted to Wednesday evening’s news that Trump wouldn’t impose 10% tariffs for several countries on Feb 1. Indeed, that reaction saw the STOXX 600 (+1.03%) post its best day in over two months, and there was a clear response among assets more sensitive to a military or trade escalation. So defence stocks struggled as a military escalation was viewed as less likely, and Rheinmetall (-3.40%) was the worst performer in the German DAX. Conversely, there was an outperformance from sectors like automakers that would have been more affected by tariffs, and Volkswagen (+6.51%) was the top performer in the DAX.

Whilst the geopolitical news was the main driver of the rally yesterday, sentiment also got a boost from a strong batch of US data, which cemented confidence in the near-term outlook. Most notably, the weekly initial jobless claims were at just 200k in the week ending January 17 (vs. 209k expected), which in turn pushed the 4-week moving average to a 2-year low of just 201.5k. In addition, the Q3 GDP print was also revised up a tenth, now showing growth at an annualised +4.4% before the government shutdown began. And the PCE inflation data for October and November was in line with expectations, with both headline and core PCE running at +0.2% for both months.

That data boosted confidence in the near-term outlook, and it meant that investors continued to dial back their expectations for rate cuts this year. Indeed, just 43bps of Fed cuts are now priced by the December meeting, the fewest so far this year and down -2.6bps on the day. So in turn, that helped to push up Treasury yields higher, especially at the frontend, with the 2yr Treasury yield (+2.4bps) up to 3.61%, whilst the 10yr yield (+0.6bps) reached 4.25%. That risk-on tone was echoed among US equities too, with the S&P 500 (+0.55%) powered by a strong advance for the Magnificent 7 (+2.11%), which posted its biggest gain of 2026 so far.

Overnight, the Japanese yield curve has flattened after the Bank of Japan delivered a somewhat hawkish-leaning decision. They left their policy rate at 0.75% as expected, after hiking at the previous meeting. However, it was an 8-1 vote, with a dissent in favour of another 25bp hike, whilst the outlook report raised their inflation outlook as well. So the median expectation for core-core CPI has risen by two-tenths to +3.0% in fiscal 2025, whilst the fiscal 2026 forecast is also up two-tenths to +2.2%, with fiscal 2027 up a tenth to +2.1%. And looking forward, the outlook report reiterated their desire to keep hiking rates, saying that “real interest rates are at significantly low levels”, and that if the forecast were realised then they would “continue to raise the policy interest rate”. In turn, that’s seen the 2yr Japanese yield (+3.1bps) reach a post-1996 high of 1.23%, but the 30yr yield (-1.9bps) is down to 3.62%. We also had the December CPI report shortly beforehand, which showed headline CPI decelerating to +2.1% (vs. +2.2% expected) due the impact of government subsidies.

Otherwise in Asia, equity markets have generally moved higher for the most part, which comes as the flash PMIs have painted a resilient picture of global economic activity as we begin 2026. So Japan’s composite PMI moved up to a 17-month high of 52.8, Australia’s hit a 5-month high of 55.5, whilst India’s moved up to 59.5. So that backdrop has seen further gains for the Nikkei (+0.16%), the Shanghai Comp (+0.28%) and the Hang Seng (+0.47%), whilst South Korea’s KOSPI (+0.47%) is on track for another record high. Meanwhile, US equity futures are also positive, with those on the S&P 500 (+0.19%) pointing towards further gains. However, the CSI 300 (-0.45%) has lost ground, and we also found out overnight that the People’s Bank of China set the daily reference rate for the yuan at 6.9929 per dollar, which is the first time since 2023 that the reference rate has been below 7.

Elsewhere, we’ve seen fresh records for commodities, with gold (+2.16%) closing at another record of $4,936/oz yesterday, and overnight it’s reached an intraday peak of $4,967/oz. So it’s in touching distance of the $5,000 level, and bear in mind it was only in October that it crossed the $4,000 level. Similarly, silver (+3.42%) closed at a new record of $96.24/oz yesterday, and overnight it’s also hit an intraday record of $99.36/oz. Otherwise, Brent crude fell -1.81% to $64.06/bbl, following positive comments on peace talks from Ukraine’s President Zelenskiy after meeting Trump in Davos, as well as the news that exports of Kazakh oil via a Black Sea oil terminal in Russia should soon recover from recent disruption caused by Ukrainian drone strikes. Further talks between US, Ukraine and Russia officials are expected in Abu Dhabi today and tomorrow.

Earlier in Europe, UK gilts underperformed their European counterparts yesterday, with the 10yr yield up +1.7bps on the day to 4.47%. That came in response to the news that Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham could have a path back into Parliament, as a vacancy opened up to become MP in the Greater Manchester seat of Gorton and Denton. Gilts reacted to that because Burnham is seen as a plausible challenger against PM Keir Starmer, whose position has come under increasing pressure over the last year, and Burnham has previously said that the UK is “in hock to the bond markets” and called for higher public borrowing. It’s unclear yet if Burnham would be a candidate in that by-election, but gilt markets have been closely following political developments, as we saw last July when there was a big selloff driven by speculation about Chancellor Reeves’ position and whether the fiscal rules might be loosened under a new chancellor.

Finally yesterday, we also had the minutes from the ECB’s last meeting in December, where they kept their deposit rate at 2%. They showed that the ECB wanted to keep their options open, saying that “it was important for the Governing Council to maintain full optionality in either direction for future meetings”. Looking forward, it also said that “the softening of downside risks since September meant that maintaining interest rates at their current level represented a fairly solid path under the baseline outlook”. Against that backdrop, yields on 10yr bunds (+0.5bps) rose by a small amount, and those on 10yr OATs (-2.8bps) and BTPs (-1.6bps) fell back.

Looking at the day ahead, data releases include the January flash PMIs from the US and Europe, the University of Michigan’s final consumer sentiment index for January, and UK retail sales for December. Otherwise from central banks, we’ll hear from ECB President Lagarde and the BoE’s Greene.