Submitted by QTR’s Fringe Finance

When Zohran Mamdani ran for mayor, he sold New Yorkers a vision of relief. Free childcare. Free buses. A rent freeze. A city that would finally tilt toward the struggling rather than the secure. What he did not campaign on was a nearly 10% property tax hike affecting more than three million residences and over 100,000 commercial properties. Yet, days after his election, here we are.

The proposal, floated as leverage in a standoff with Kathy Hochul, is being marketed as a reluctant last resort. But for a mayor elected on affordability, threatening one of the broadest tax increases available to City Hall is not just ironic—it’s revealing. When the numbers got tight and Albany didn’t comply, Mamdani’s idiotic grand promises collided with fiscal gravity. And instead of rethinking the scale of the agenda, the answer was to reach for the biggest local tax lever available.

Truly a courageous and brilliant new strategy from the left: raising taxes. How novel.

This is not some clever new framework. Property taxes are the most predictable, blunt instrument in municipal finance. They are also uniquely capable of rippling through the housing market in exactly the way Mamdani claims to oppose. Owners of small apartment buildings do not absorb cost increases out of civic virtue. Co-op boards don’t shrug off higher levies as symbolic gestures. Costs get passed along where they can be. Where they can’t, maintenance gets deferred. Either way, renters feel it.

It is a strange approach for a mayor who built his brand on a rent freeze. Even in regulated markets, rising operating costs create pressure. Insurance goes up. Taxes go up. Financing tightens. The idea that rents will somehow remain untouched while property taxes jump by nearly double digits requires a level of magical thinking that would make even this idiot’s campaign rally blush.

And the politics are riskier than they appear. Many of the people who voted for Mamdani also own property—brownstones in Brooklyn, co-ops in Queens, small multifamily homes in the Bronx. They may support progressive goals in theory. They are probably, however, less enthusiastic about writing materially larger checks to City Hall in practice. The coalition that cheers bold rhetoric can fracture quickly when the bill arrives.

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Meanwhile, the wealthiest residents—the ones progressives often argue should shoulder more of the burden—are the most mobile. Florida and Texas have spent years positioning themselves as lower-tax alternatives. Some migration has already occurred. More importantly, the perception has taken hold that New York’s reflex, when faced with a budget gap, is to tax what it can reach.

That perception matters. Capital is cautious. Businesses consider long-term operating costs. High earners with flexibility do the math. A city that signals fiscal instability or punitive tax swings makes those calculations easier. Wealth doesn’t leave overnight in caravans, but it leaves incrementally. A family here. A fund there. A company’s next expansion somewhere else.

None of this solves the structural problem Mamdani says he is fighting. A nearly 10 percent property tax hike does not reform the inequities in the property tax system. It does not fundamentally restructure spending. It does not magically close a multibillion-dollar gap without consequences. It simply shifts pressure onto homeowners, landlords, and—inevitably—renters.

It’s true that New York City has survived worse than one mayor’s budget gambit. It survived the fiscal crisis of the 1970s. It survived waves of out-migration before. It will survive this. The question is not whether the city endures, but what it looks like after years of governing by threat and tax hike. If the answer to every shortfall is to squeeze the remaining tax base harder, how many people with the means to leave will decide they’ve had enough?

And if that exodus accelerates, who exactly will be left to fund the next round of bullshit socialist promises?

Now read:

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• Countdown to Detonation: America’s Leverage Problem

QTR’s Disclaimer: Please read my full legal disclaimer on my About page here. This post represents my opinions only. In addition, please understand I am an idiot and often get things wrong and lose money. I may own or transact in any names mentioned in this piece at any time without warning. Contributor posts and aggregated posts have been hand selected by me, have not been fact checked and are the opinions of their authors. They are either submitted to QTR by their author, reprinted under a Creative Commons license with my best effort to uphold what the license asks, or with the permission of the author.

This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any stocks or securities, just my opinions. I often lose money on positions I trade/invest in. I may add any name mentioned in this article and sell any name mentioned in this piece at any time, without further warning. None of this is a solicitation to buy or sell securities. I may or may not own names I write about and are watching. Sometimes I’m bullish without owning things, sometimes I’m bearish and do own things. Just assume my positions could be exactly the opposite of what you think they are just in case. If I’m long I could quickly be short and vice versa. I won’t update my positions. All positions can change immediately as soon as I publish this, with or without notice and at any point I can be long, short or neutral on any position. You are on your own. Do not make decisions based on my blog. I exist on the fringe. If you see numbers and calculations of any sort, assume they are wrong and double check them. I failed Algebra in 8th grade and topped off my high school math accolades by getting a D- in remedial Calculus my senior year, before becoming an English major in college so I could bullshit my way through things easier. I am an investor in Mark’s fund.

The publisher does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in this page. These are not the opinions of any of my employers, partners, or associates. I did my best to be honest about my disclosures but can’t guarantee I am right; I write these posts after a couple beers sometimes. I edit after my posts are published because I’m impatient and lazy, so if you see a typo, check back in a half hour. Also, I just straight up get shit wrong a lot. I mention it twice because it’s that important.

PayPal shares were briefly halted due to volatility and are now up 9% after a Bloomberg report said the digital payments firm is attracting takeover interest from potential buyers, as the stock slid to a decade low. The report, based on unnamed sources, has not been confirmed by PayPal.

Interest in a PayPal takeover is in the early stages, according to people familiar with the matter. They say the company has met with banks amid unsolicited interest from suitors.

The sources described one of the suitors as a “large rival” looking to purchase the entire digital payments firm, while others are only interested in certain PayPal assets.

Before the news hit, PayPal shares in New York were at 2017 lows (with a market capitalization of around $37 billion) and down more than 85% from the 2021 high of $291.48. Year to date, shares are down 30%.

Wall Street analysts are largely neutral on the stock, with 12 “Buys,” 31 “Holds,” and six “Sells.” The average 12-month price target is $50.08. 

PayPal was one of the pioneers of digital payments, but has been losing market share as consumers shift to alternatives like Apple Pay and Google Pay.

Bloomberg notes a leadership shakeup of the firm is underway, with board chair Enrique Lores set to become president and CEO on March 1, following the ouster of Alex Chriss earlier this month. The latest earnings have disappointed, with quarter four profit and revenue missing estimates and signs of a continued slowdown in payment volume.

In a Monday televised speech on the occasion of Russia’s “Defender of the Fatherland Day,” President Vladimir Putin declared that the development of the nuclear triad “remains an absolute priority” for Russia, coming soon on the heels of the collapse of the New START nuclear treaty with the United States.

The nuclear triad serves as the ultimate guarantee of Russia’s security and allows the effective maintenance of strategic deterrence and the balance of power in the world, explained Putin, calling it “our absolute priority”. Countries like Russia, which are seen by the US either as rivals or even ‘rogue’ – are busy taking note of Iran now being threatened with regime change given it does not possess a nuclear deterrent. 

Putin further emphasized in the context of strategic deterrence that Russia will enhance the potential of its armed forces and improve their combat readiness and mobility – as well as maintaining the ability to operate under the most complex conditions.

He further pledged to accelerate the pace of research and development of advanced weapons and equipment for the military to ensure that they are in reliable hands, according to state media translation.

“The development of the nuclear triad, which guarantees Russia’s security and enables us to effectively ensure strategic deterrence and balance of power in the world remains.” —Putin

As for the US-Russia New START Nuclear Treaty, it officially expired without renewal on February 4. Since then Moscow has declared it will in good faith stick to the nuclear limits outlined in the now-expired arms control treaty, provided Washington does the same.

And yet there’s been relative quiet from the White House on the issue. For now it doesn’t seem the US has made such a reciprocal pledge, leaving the world in uncertain and uncharted territory.

Russia has also made clear that it has no intention of being “the first to take steps towards escalation” and expanding its warheads.

In early February, Secretary of State Marco Rubio gave insight into why the White House has let New START expire, echoing a complaint that goes all the way back to the first Trump administration.

🚨🇷🇺 Nuclear triad remains an absolute priority: Putin

Vladimir Putin’s Defender of the Fatherland Day address dropped the roadmap for Russia’s military future:

◾️Combat experience is being baked into modernization.
◾️Industrial base is running hot.
◾️Strategic forces stay on… pic.twitter.com/Kt4OlmHOwM

— Sputnik India (@Sputnik_India) February 23, 2026

“Obviously, the president’s been clear in the past that in order to have true arms control in the 21st century, it’s impossible to do something that doesn’t include China because of their vast and rapidly growing stockpile,” Rubio said.

Authored by Jacki Thrapp via The Epoch Times,

Greenland’s Prime Minister Jens-Frederik Nielsen said he does not support President Donald Trump’s decision to send a hospital ship to Greenland.

“It’s going to be a no thank you from here,” according to a translation of Nielsen’s Facebook post on Feb. 22.

“President Trump’s idea to send an American hospital ship here to Greenland is noted. But we have a public health system where treatment is free for citizens. It’s a deliberate choice. And a basic part of our society. It’s not like that in the United States, where it costs money to go to the doctor.”

Nielsen said Greenland is “always open to dialogue and collaboration” but requested Trump “talk to us now instead of just coming up with more or less random outbursts on social media.”

It’s not clear which ship was sent.

The rejection came one day after Trump said on Truth Social that a hospital ship was on its way to the country.

“We are going to send a great hospital boat to Greenland to take care of the many people who are sick, and not being taken care of there,” Trump shared in a Truth Social post on Feb. 21.

Trump said he worked with Louisiana Gov. Jeff Landry, who serves as special envoy to Greenland, on making the trip a reality.

“It’s on the way!!!” Trump added.

Trump did not say when the ship would arrive or what health issues crews on board are going to help treat.

The announcement was made hours after Denmark’s military said its arctic command forces evacuated a crew member of a U.S. submarine for urgent medical treatment.

“The crew member needed urgent medical treatment and has been transferred to the Greenlandic health authorities and the hospital in Nuuk,” the Danish Joint Arctic Command shared on its Facebook page Feb. 21.

Trump did not say if the crew member’s medical issue inspired him to act and deploy the ship to Greenland, which is an autonomous territory within the Kingdom of Denmark that Trump has long suggested should be under control of the United States for strategic and national and global security reasons.

The Epoch Times contacted the White House and Landry for additional information but did not hear back by time of publication.

While much digital ink has been spilled on the Supreme Court’s striking down of Trump’s IEEPA tariffs and the consequences of this decision (see “Full Analysis Of The Supreme Court IEEPA Decision: How It Impacts The Economy, Policy And Markets“), a lot more is on deck for this week when we will also have more geopolitical headlines to contend with, as the latest round of US-Iran talks is expected in Geneva on Thursday. The talks come amid a recent buildup of US forces in the region and yesterday the New York Times was the latest outlet to report that Trump is considering an initial targeted strike against Iran in the coming days, which could be followed by a larger attack if Iran does not give in to US nuclear demands. Other highlights for the week ahead include the State of the Union address in the US (late tomorrow), US PPI and preliminary CPIs in Europe (both Friday). In earnings, the focus will be on Nvidia, Salesforce (both Wednesday) and Home Depot (tomorrow). Nvidia’s earnings could be the most important of these but expect lots of headlines from the State of the Union speech.

Friday’s US PPI release – where headline and core inflation are both forecast at 0.3% – will matter less in isolation than for its implications for the core PCE deflator. While January CPI surprised to the downside, the implications for core PCE continue to appear less favorable, with DB economists currently looking for a 0.4% monthly increase. Depending on the strength of key PPI components such as medical services, airfares, and portfolio management fees, a 0.5% increase in January core PCE cannot be ruled out, which would lift the year-over-year rate to around 3.1%. So an important release, especially in the sub-components.

There is a fair degree of Fed speak this week, with Waller (today and tomorrow) a highlight given he dissented in favor of a 25bps cut in January due to concerns over the labor market. However, we’ve subsequently seen a firm January jobs report and a firm December core PCE print, so will he shift his stance a bit? See the day-by-day week ahead at the end as usual for the rest of the Fed speakers and the key global data.  

Elsewhere in the world, we have the German Ifo today and the preliminary European February CPI prints including for countries such as Germany, France and Spain, among others, on Friday. There will also be economic sentiment measures for key economies including consumer confidence in the UK, Germany and France, as well as the ECB’s consumer expectations survey due Friday.

Over in Asia, it’s a busy week ahead for Japan with key releases including the Tokyo CPI for February and the January industrial production both due on Friday. Our Chief Japan Economist expects core CPI inflation (ex. fresh food) of 1.7% YoY (2.0% in January) and core-core CPI inflation (ex. fresh food and energy) of 2.4% (2.4% in January). For industrial production, he sees a robust 4.5% MoM gain. See more in his full week-ahead here. Elsewhere, inflation will also be in focus in Australia and our economists expect a -0.2% MoM headline print and a 0.24% MoM trimmed mean print.

Other than Nvidia on Wednesday, other tech firms reporting include Salesforce, Intuit, Snowflake and CoreWeave. Amongst US consumer firms, the focus will be on Home Depot, TJX and Lowe’s. Over in Europe, there will be results from HSBC and Allianz in financials as well as other large firms such as Deutsche Telekom, Schneider Electric, Iberdrola and Rolls-Royce.

Courtesy of DB,  here is a day-by-day calendar of events

Monday February 23

• Data: US January Chicago Fed national activity index, December factory orders, February Dallas Fed manufacturing activity, Germany February Ifo survey
• Central banks: Fed’s Waller speaks, ECB’s Lagarde speaks, BoE’s Taylor speaks
• Earnings: Dominion Energy, Domino’s Pizza

Tuesday February 24

• Data: US February Conference Board consumer confidence index, Dallas Fed services activity, Richmond Fed manufacturing index, business conditions, Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing activity, December FHFA house price index, wholesale trade sales, Q4 house price purchase index, China January 1-yr and 5-yr loan prime rates, France February business confidence, EU27 January new car registrations
• Central banks: Fed’s Goolsbee, Collins, Bostic, Waller, Cook and Barkin speak, ECB’s Kocher speaks
• Earnings: Home Depot, Constellation Energy, MercadoLibre, American Tower, Standard Chartered, NRG Energy, Workday, Axon Enterprise, Fidelity National Information, MTU Aero Engines, First Solar, Telefonica, Amer Sports, CoStar, HP
• Auctions: US 2-yr Notes ($69bn)
• Other: US President Trump’s State of the Union address

Wednesday February 25

• Data: Japan January PPI services, Germany March GfK consumer confidence, France February consumer confidence, January retail sales, Australia January CPI
• Central banks: Fed’s Barkin and Musalem speak, ECB’s Vujcic speaks
• Earnings: NVIDIA, HSBC, TJX, Salesforce, Lowe’s, Iberdrola, Synopsys, Medline, Snowflake, E.ON, Diageo, Ferrovial, Haleon, Heidelberg Materials, Alcon, Leonardo, Trip.com, Sandoz, Wolters Kluwer, Paramount Skydance
• Auctions: US 2-yr FRN (reopening, $28bn), 5-yr Notes ($70bn)

Thursday February 26

• Data: US February Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity, initial jobless claims, Italy February consumer confidence index, economic sentiment, manufacturing confidence, Eurozone January M3, February economic confidence, Canada Q4 current account balance
• Central banks: ECB’s Lagarde and Dolenc speak, BoJ’s Takata speaks, BoE’s Lombardelli speaks
• Earnings: Deutsche Telekom, Schneider Electric, Allianz, Rolls-Royce, Intuit, AXA, Munich Re, Dell, Engie, Warner Bros Discovery, Eni, London Stock Exchange Group, Rocket, Erste, Cie de Saint-Gobain, CoreWeave, Autodesk, Baidu, Rocket Lab, Block, Zscaler, Stellantis, Flutter Entertainment
• Auctions: US 7-yr Notes ($44bn)

Friday February 27

• Data: US January PPI, February MNI Chicago PMI, Kansas City Fed services activity, December and November construction spending, UK February GfK consumer confidence, Lloyds Business Barometer, Japan February Tokyo CPI, January retail sales, industrial production, housing starts, Germany February CPI, unemployment claims rate, January import price index, France February CPI, January consumer spending, PPI, Q4 total payrolls, Italy December industrial sales, Canada Q4 GDP, Sweden Q4 GDP, Switzerland Q4 GDP 
• Central banks: ECB January consumer expectations survey, BoE’s Pill speaks
• Earnings: Holcim, BASF, Swiss Re, Amadeus IT

Finally, looking at just the US, Goldman writes that the key economic data release this week is the PPI report on Friday. There are several speaking engagements with Fed officials this week, including events with Governors Waller, Cook, and Bowman. 

Monday, February 23 

• 08:00 AM Fed Governor Waller speaks: Fed Governor Christopher Waller will give a keynote address at the annual NABE economic policy conference. Speech text and Q&A are expected. On January 30, Waller said, “With total inflation excluding tariff effects close to our target at just slightly above 2 percent and a weak labor market, the policy rate should be closer to neutral, which the median FOMC participant estimates is 3 percent, and not where we are—50 to 75 basis points above 3 percent.”
• 10:00 AM Factory orders, December (GS -0.5%, consensus -0.7%, last +2.7%) 

Tuesday, February 24 

• 08:00 AM Chicago Fed President Goolsbee (FOMC non-voter) speaks; Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee will speak at the annual NABE economic policy conference. Q&A is expected. On February 17, Goolsbee said, “If…we can show that we’re on path to 2% inflation, I still think there’s several more rate cuts that can happen in 2026. But we’ve got to see it in coming data.” 
• 09:00 AM Boston Fed President Collins (FOMC non-voter) speaks; Boston Fed President Susan Collins will give opening remarks at a Boston Fed conference on finance and payments.
• 09:00 AM Atlanta Fed President Bostic (FOMC non-voter) speaks; Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic will participate in a moderated discussion on monetary policy and the economic outlook. On February 20, Bostic said, “Our economy has remained remarkably resilient… [which] means that we have to worry about the implications for prices on a strong economy given inflation at around 3% is a long way from the 2% target.”
• 09:00 AM S&P Case-Shiller home price index, December (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.4%, last +0.5%) 
• 09:00 AM FHFA house price index, December (consensus +0.3%, last +0.6%)
• 09:15 AM Fed Governor Waller speaks: Fed Governor Christopher Waller will give a keynote address at a Boston Fed conference on finance and payments. Speech text and Q&A are expected. 
• 09:30 AM Fed Governor Cook speaks: Fed Governor Lisa Cook will participate in panel discussion on AI at the annual NABE economic policy conference. Speech text and Q&A are expected. On February 4, Cook said, “There is an argument for being optimistic about the path of inflation, but, until I see stronger evidence that inflation is moving sustainably back down to target, that is where my focus will be, in the absence of unexpected changes in the labor market.”
• 10:00 AM Conference Board consumer confidence, February (GS 87.0, consensus 87.0, last 84.5)
• 10:00 AM Wholesale inventories, December final (consensus +0.2%, last +0.2%)
• 03:15 PM Boston Fed President Collins (FOMC non-voter) and Richmond Fed President Barkin (FOMC non-voter) speak: Boston Fed President Susan Collins and Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin will participate in a panel discussion at a Boston Fed conference on finance and payments. 

Wednesday, February 25 

• There are no major economic data releases scheduled. 
• 10:40 AM Richmond Fed President Barkin (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin will participate in a moderated Q&A panel at the Northern Virginia Chamber of Commerce. On February 4, Barkin said, “I think of the three cuts as having taken out some insurance to support the labor market as we work to complete the last mile to bring inflation back to target.”
• 11:00 AM Kansas City Fed President Schmid (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid will participate in a fireside chat about monetary policy and the economic outlook. On February 11, Schmid said, “Further rate cuts [would] risk allowing high inflation to persist even longer.”
• 01:20 PM St. Louis Fed President Musalem (FOMC non-voter) speaks: St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem will speak on the role of the Fed in the St. Louis region at the Missouri Athletic Club. Q&A is expected. On February 20, Musalem said, “A neutral real rate [right now] is appropriate, in my opinion, given my outlook for the economy… Policy is in a good place currently.”

Thursday, February 26 

• 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended February 21 (GS 220k, consensus 215k, last 206k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended February 14 (consensus 1,863k, last 1,869k)
• 10:00 AM Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman speaks: Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman will testify before the Senate Banking Committee on bank supervision. Speech text and Q&A are expected. On January 30, Bowman said, “My view is that we should continue to focus on downside risks to our employment mandate. History tells us that the labor market can appear to be stable right up until it isn’t.” She also said, “I continue to see policy as moderately restrictive, and, looking ahead to 2026, my Summary of Economic Projections includes three cuts for this year.”

Friday, February 27 

• 08:30 AM PPI final demand, January (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.5%); PPI ex-food and energy, January (GS +0.4%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.7%); PPI ex-food, energy, and trade, January (GS +0.3%, last +0.4%)
• 10:00 AM Construction spending, December (GS +0.5%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.5% [October]); Construction spending, November (GS +0.4%)

Source: DB, Goldman

Shares of Novo Nordisk A/S plummeted again on Monday after the company reported trial results showing its next-generation obesity shot, CagriSema, delivered 20.2% weight loss at 84 weeks, compared to 23.6% for Eli Lilly & Co.’s tirzepatide (Zepbound).

Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Michael Shah explained, “This outcome is the worst-case scenario for Novo and heightens the need for M&A with Novo’s other GLP-1/Amylin drug.”

Shares of Novo in Copenhagen plunged as much as 16.5%, breaking below a support level that had held since August 2025. The stock is now down about 75% from its 2024 peak and is near its 2021 low.

The result is yet more trouble for Novo’s new leadership, led by Mike Doustdar, following Lars Fruergaard Jørgensen’s recent exit, along with board turnover linked to disagreements over a turnaround plan to regain GLP-1 market share. There’s also the copycat GLP-1 compounding issue involving the telehealth firm Hims & Hers.

Novo’s strategy revolves around CagriSema as Wegovy and Ozempic face longer-term patent pressure; it combines semaglutide and another gut hormone called amylin. Early studies have shown mixed results, and at least one large trial failed to meet Novo’s targeted weight loss.

Another CagriSema trial, due later this year, could yield better results because it aims to move patients to the highest dose.

“Clearly this weakens Novo Nordisk’s competitive stance in the obesity market – especially if the obesity market develops into a ‘winner takes it all’ market,” Danske Bank Credit Research analyst Brian Borsting wrote in a note. “That said, we continue to believe that Novo Nordisk’s product portfolio in the obesity market is diversified and solid although we see today’s news as credit negative.”

Meanwhile, Goldman analyst and Novo super bull James Quigley provided clients with an update on the CagriSema trial:

This morning (23rd February), Novo announced that CagriSema did not achieve the primary endpoint of non-inferiority in REDEFINE-4, with weight loss of 23% for the CagriSema arm vs. 25.5% for the tirzepatide 15mg arm, after 84 weeks of treatment. Previously, we had said that in a non-inferiority scenario, taking the PoS of CagriSema down to 0% in obesity, leaving $5bn in sales only for cagrilintide monotherapy, would lead to a -12% impact to our DCF, all else equal, but noted that investor expectations were likely lower for CagriSema. These data points could further reduce market expectations for CagriSema, even ahead of the REDEFINE 11 trial (1H’27), and while we continue to expect approval for CagriSema and likely some use by physicians as part of a portfolio approach in obesity, investors are not likely to give credit here until the sales start to come though post approval. Novo is looking to explore higher doses of CagriSema with a Phase 3 trial planned for 2H26 – although we believe investors are unlikely to give any credit until the sales trajectory is seen. Therefore, given our expectations noted above, the share price reaction at the time of writing of c.-12% appears in line, as any residual potential for CagriSema moves out of the expectations built in for the stock. Continued momentum for the launch of the Wegovy pill is even more important, we believe, as shifting volumes to the oral market could be advantageous, given Novo has a more competitive profile on weight loss.

• CagriSema failed to meet the primary endpoint of demonstrating non-inferiority vs tirzepatide on weight loss at 84 weeks. On an efficacy-estimand basis, 2.4mg/2.4mg CagriSema showed -23.0% weight loss at 84 weeks, vs 25.5% weight loss with 15mg tirzepatide over the same time period. On a treatment-regimen estimand basis, CagriSema showed -20.2% weight loss at 84 weeks vs -23.6% with 15mg tirzepatide. As a result, REDEFINE-4’s primary endpoint of CagriSema demonstrating non-inferiority on weight loss vs tirzepatide was not reached.

• CagriSema showed a well-tolerated safety profile, per Novo. While no tolerability data was given, in the release Novo said that overall CagriSema appeared to show a well-tolerated and safe profile, with the most common AEs being GI AEs. Of these, the vast majority were mild to moderate and improved over time, which was consistent with other drugs in the GLP1 agonist class.

• In terms of next steps, Novo anticipates a decision from the FDA on CagriSema by y/e 2026. This is following the company’s submission to the FDA in December 2025 based on data from REDEFINE 1 and 2. Novo also expects to initiate an additional Phase 3 trial of higher dose CagriSema in 2H26, and expects the readout from REDEFINE 11 of 2.4mg/2.4mg CagriSema in 1H27 (longer term trial looking at the full weight loss potential of CagriSema in obesity).

Not surprisingly, Quigley’s continued “Buy” rating on the stock even as it has collapsed 75% from the peak and nears 2021 lows. “We are Buy rated on Novo Nordisk,” he said.

Related:

• Novo Nordisk CEO To Step Down Following Brutal Bear Market

• “Big Miss”: Wall Street Disappointed After Dismal Novo Nordisk GLP-1 Sales Outlook, Shares Plunge

• GLP-1 Feud: HIMS Fires Back At Novo Nordisk, Slams Lawsuit As “Blatant Attack” By Big Pharma

• GLP-1 Anti-Obesity U.S. Drug Market In Four Charts

Bloomberg data shows 17 “Buy” ratings, 14 “Hold” ratings, and 3 “Sell” ratings on Novo. The average 12-month price target among Wall Street analysts is 353 kroner.

How many Goldman clients are furious with Quigley’s Novo coverage?

Authored by Amin Haqshanas via CoinTelegraph.com,

The developer behind the fast-growing open-source AI agent framework OpenClaw has confirmed that any mention of Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies on its Discord server can lead to removal.

In a Saturday post on X, a user revealed that they were blocked from OpenClaw’s Discord simply for referencing Bitcoin block height as a timing mechanism in a multi-agent benchmark.

In response, OpenClaw creator Peter Steinberger confirmed the action, writing that members had accepted “strict server rules” upon joining and that the community maintains a “no crypto mention whatsoever” policy.

OpenClaw confirms ban on crypto. Source: Steinberger

Steinberger later agreed to re-add the user, asking them to email their username so he could restore their access to the server.

OpenClaw’s crypto problem began with a fake token

Trouble began during a rebrand after Steinberger received a trademark notice related to the project’s original name.

In the short window between releasing old social accounts and claiming new ones, scammers seized the abandoned handles and promoted a Solana-based token called $CLAWD.

The token surged to roughly $16 million in market capitalization within hours before collapsing more than 90% after Steinberger publicly denied involvement. Early buyers accused the developer.

Steinberger responded at the time by warning users he would never launch a cryptocurrency and that any token claiming association with him was fraudulent. Security researchers later identified hundreds of exposed OpenClaw instances online and dozens of malicious plug-ins, many designed to target crypto traders.

OpenClaw has expanded rapidly since launching in late January, surpassing 200,000 GitHub stars within weeks and attracting a wide developer audience interested in autonomous agents.

Crypto firms bullish on AI agents

Industry leaders increasingly see crypto as the default payment rail for AI. Circle CEO Jeremy Allaire predicted that billions of agents will use stablecoins for routine payments within a few years

Earlier this month, Coinbase launched “Agentic Wallets” infrastructure that lets AI agents hold wallets and autonomously spend, earn and trade crypto onchain.

Built on its AgentKit developer framework and powered by the x402 payments protocol, the system enables software agents to actively manage DeFi positions, rebalance portfolios, pay for compute and data services, and participate in digital marketplaces.

Stock futures slumped after Trump’s weekend tariff tantrum added uncertainty to American trade policy and was another blow to bullish outlooks for 2026. The Supreme Court’s tariff ruling means a big source of fiscal revenue from 2025 may have to be refunded (although if it is refunded to US consumers, who bore the brunt of tariffs as most liberals analysts concluded, it would represent a huge pre-midterm stimulus). As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures were 0.5% lower, giving up almost all Friday gains, while Nasdaq 100 contracts sliding -0.6%. In pre-market trading, there is a defensive tone as Mag7 names are mostly lower, Semis are coming for sale (NVDA flat ahead of earnings on Wednesday); and, most sectors are seeing weakness with pockets of positive performance in HC, Aero/Def, Materials, and Utilities.  “We started 2026 with a bullish outlook — but not even two months into the year, many of our assumptions are being challenged,” wrote the Bloomberg Economics team led by Anna Wong. The risk of war in Iran and the AI scare are also denting optimism. The dollar recouped losses while bond yields are flat-to-down 1bp after spiking on Friday on fears the SCOTUS ruling will unleash much more debt issuance. Commodities are seeing weakness in Energy with WTI down 60bp, Ags being sold perhaps on lower tariffs, and precious metals maintain their incessant bid. Today we get factory orders and the final December durable goods report. Key events this week include Trump’s State of the Union Address tomorrow, Nvidia earnings on Wednesday and PPI data on Friday.

In premarket trading, Magnificent Seven are mostly lower, with the lone exception being GOOGL which rises 0.3% as Wells Fargo upgrades to overweight, calling the search giant an “AI winner.” Others are all down (Nvidia -0.2%, Microsoft -0.5%, Apple -0.5%, Meta Platforms -0.7%, Amazon -0.9%, Tesla -0.9%)

• Arcellx Inc. (ACLX) soars 78% after Gilead Sciences Inc. agreed to buy the biotech in a deal with an equity value of up to $7.8 billion.
• Domino’s Pizza Inc. (DPZ) climbs 4% after the company reported a larger-than-expected rise in comparable sales, as consumers were drawn to the pizza chain’s budget-friendly pies.
• International Paper (IP) falls 6% and Smurfit (SW) drops 6% as analysts note that a surprise price drop in domestic containerboard is negative for packaging companies.
• MoonLake Immunotherapeutics (MLTX) rises 4% after the drug developer gave topline results from a mid-stage trial of its experimental therapy for patients with an inflammatory disease that mainly affects the spine.
• Vanda Pharmaceuticals (VNDA) climbs 40% after the FDA approved the firm’s oral medication for treating manic or mixed episodes in bipolar I disorder and schizophrenia in adults.
• Veris Residential (VRE) rises 12% after agreeing to be acquired by an investor consortium led by Affinius Capital in partnership with Vista Hill Partners, in an all-cash transaction for $19 per share.
• VF Corp. (VFC) declines 3% as JPMorgan cuts its rating on the apparel and shoe company to underweight and trims profit estimates for upcoming years.

In corporate news, Honeywell slashed its price to acquire Johnson Matthey’s Catalyst Technologies business in a move to save the deal from falling apart. OpenAI is projecting that its revenue will grow at a fast clip in the next few years and exceed $280 billion in 2030, according to a person familiar. Hynix pledged to boost output of AI memory chips to meet a surge in demand.

The latest questions over tariffs following the SCOTUS rejection of Trump’s signature trade policy are giving traders another focal point in markets that have been grappling with concerns about artificial intelligence and tensions in the Middle East. Investors will also closely follow Trump’s State of the Union address on Tuesday and Nvidia Corp.’s earnings the following day.

“Markets quickly realized that the ruling might not change much in the near term and will rather increase uncertainties,” said Stephan Kemper, chief investment strategist at BNP Paribas Wealth Management. “Donald Trump is not known to avoid a fight or give up easily.”

Trump responded to the ruling by imposing a new 10% global levy, vowing to use other powers to maintain his signature trade policies. He upped that to 15% the next day. US Trade Rep Jamieson Greer said the tariff-policy defeat won’t unravel individual deals the administration has sealed with trading partners. Still, the EU is poised to freeze the ratification process of its deal with the US and is seeking more details from the Trump administration. However, senior US officials, including Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, signaled over the weekend that the court decision wouldn’t unravel agreements already negotiated.

“The question is about the benefit of the rebates versus the extra uncertainty that the trade issues are causing, and for me the latter wins,” JPMorgan Asset Management Global Market Strategist Hugh Gimber told Bloomberg TV. “That for me risks putting business activity on hold, because companies simply don’t know what’s to come further down the line.”

For JPMorgan strategists, an equity-market pullback driven by global tariff policies or an escalation in Iran could create dip-buying opportunities as long as the macro backdrop remains positive. “Adverse geopolitical headlines” could lead to de-risking given the recent rally and stretched technicals, wrote the team led by Mislav Matejka. “But we believe that these will not be long-lasting, and should be seen as buying opportunities.”

Meanwhile, the hunt for AI losers (and winners) continues in both public and private markets. Today’s Big Take looks at the fallout in private credit after Blue Owl, a prominent software lender, permanently shut the gates on one of its funds. The biggest AI event this week comes in the form of Nvidia results. Still, the chip giant’s stock is stuck in a range and even blowout earnings may not lift it according to Bloomberg.

“We started 2026 with a bullish outlook — but not even two months into the year, many of our assumptions are being challenged,” wrote the Bloomberg Economics team led by Anna Wong. The Supreme Court’s tariff ruling means a big source of fiscal revenue from 2025 may have to be refunded. The risk of war in Iran and the AI scare are also denting optimism.

European indices are mixed, Stoxx 600 is down 0.4%. Trade uncertainty dominates the macro conversation with the EU set to halt its trade deal with the US. Technology and health care shares led declines, while banks and utilities were the biggest outperformers. Here are the biggest movers Monday:

• Novo Nordisk shares fall 11% after the firm said its Cagrisema product fell short of Lilly’s Zepbound in a trial
• Enel shares rise as much as 6.1%, the most since March 2022, after the Italian energy company forecast higher-than-expected dividends and EPS growth, and announced a €1 billion share buyback
• ABN Amro Bank shares rise as much as 3.7%, the most since November, after BofA Global Research raises its recommendation on the lender to buy from neutral
• JD Sports shares climb as much as 6.5% after the sportswear retailer said it plans to return £200 million to shareholders through buybacks in its 2027 fiscal year
• Quilter shares rise as much as 3.9% after being placed on JP Morgan’s Positive Catalyst Watch ahead of its results for the full year of 2025 as analysts see upside risk due to the British wealth manager’s expected share buyback
• Johnson Matthey shares fall as much as 17%, most since 2021, after Honeywell cut the price it’s paying for the UK company’s Catalyst Technologies business
• Belimo shares fall as much as 12% after analysts expressed concerns over the heating and cooling equipment maker’s guidance for 2026 and the delayed impact of tariff decisions
• Pernod Ricard shares drop as much as 4% after being downgraded at Deutsche Bank, with analysts pointing to the stock’s year-to-date outperformance and uncertainty about the alcoholic beverage maker’s growth
• EQT falls as much as 4.5% on Monday as Citi trims its price target, while maintaining its buy rating on the Stockholm-based investment firm, amid concerns that AI-driven volatility could slow private-markets activity

Earlier in the session, Asia’s equities rose to hover near record highs, driven by gains in tech, while investors weigh the impact of US President Donald Trump’s latest slate of tariffs on the region.  The MSCI Asia Pacific ex-Japan Index advanced as much as 1.3%, with Tencent and Alibaba among the biggest boosts to the gauge. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index gained 2.8%, while tech-heavy benchmarks in Taiwan and South Korea rose as well. After the US Supreme Court ruled Friday that Trump’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose duties was illegal, China and India now stand to gain from lower tariff rates on exports to the US. Investors across the region are eyeing more economic turbulence after Trump’s latest vow to hike his global levy to 15%, from the 10% announced just a day earlier. The markets have largely looked past concerns over tariffs and are more focused on other factors such as the broader economic landscape and the AI trade, she said. Trading in Japan and onshore China is shut today and will resume tomorrow

In FX, the dollar kicked the session off on the backfoot versus most majors but has since turned positive. Trade sensitive currencies such as Aussie dollar, Swedish krona and Norwegian krone underperform.

In rates, treasuries were marginally higher, with the 10-year yield falling one basis point to 4.07%. US natural gas prices rose as a winter storm swept the northeastern region. 

In commodities, spot gold and silver have benefited from the risk aversion, up 1% and 2.6% respectively. Oil has pared the bulk of its declines, with US and Iran discussions set to resume this week. US natural gas prices jumped as powerful winter storms swept the northeastern region. Bitcoin briefly slid below $65,000 on Monday for the second time this month. Bitcoin is down 2% but recovering after a brief foray below $65,000.

The US economic calendar slate includes January Chicago Fed national activity index (8:30am), December factory orders (10am) and February Dallas Fed manufacturing activity (11am). Fed speaker slate includes Waller, speaking on the economic outlook at 8am

Market Snapshot

• &P 500 mini -0.5%
• Nasdaq 100 mini -0.6%
• Russell 2000 mini -0.6%
• Stoxx Europe 600 -0.3%
• DAX -0.6%
• CAC 40 +0.1%
• 10-year Treasury yield -1 basis point at 4.08%
• VIX +0.8 points at 19.92
• Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1187.86
• euro +0.1% at $1.1798
• WTI crude -0.6% at $66.06/barrel

Top Overnight News

• Iran has indicated it is prepared to make concessions on its nuclear program in talks with the U.S. in return for the lifting of sanctions and recognition of its right to enrich uranium, as it seeks to avert a U.S. attack. RTRS
• Mexico Takes On Cartels as Killing of Drug Kingpin Sparks Violence… Gunmen Wreak Chaos in Mexican Coastal Retreat After Cartel Killing: WSJ
• The European Union is poised to freeze the ratification process of its trade deal with the US and is seeking more details from President Donald Trump’s administration on its new tariff program: BBG
• India is studying the implications for its bilateral trade deal with Washington after the US Supreme Court scrapped President Donald Trump’s decision to impose tariffs: BBG
• German business confidence brightened more than anticipated in February, with an expectations index increasing to 90.5 from a revised 89.6 in January. BBG
• India postponed talks on an interim trade deal with the US. China and Brazil are top winners from the Supreme Court decision, while the UK risks emerging as the main loser, according to Global Trade Alert. BBG
• UK job vacancies dropped to their lowest in five years and graduate posts fell to a record low in January. BBG
• The European Central Bank is asking individual lenders for details on their lending to areas including data centers amid concern over hidden credit exposures and financial-sector disruption: BBG
• Blue Owl’s selloff is deepening fears about liquidity risks and excesses in the $1.8 trillion private credit market. Private equity returned fewer profits to investors for a fourth year as firms sit on $3.8 trillion of unsold assets. BBG
• South Korea’s exports climbed 47.3% year on year in the first 20 days of February, fueled by AI-driven chip demand. The BOK said the country’s 2026 growth outlook improved on strong chip demand. BBG
• U.S. Elite Troops Hardened by War on Terror Retrain for Arctic Combat: WSJ
• Novo Nordisk Shares Plunge After Obesity Drug Fails to Beat Zepbound: WSJ
• Singapore’s core CPI fell short of expectations in Jan, coming in at +1% (vs. the Street +1.5%) while the headline number was inline at +1.4%. BBG
• Venezuela’s Leaders Killed the Economy. They Are Still In Charge.: WSJ
• US natural gas futures jumped as the East Coast storm spiked heating demand and LNG exports climbed. BBG

Trade/Tarfiffs

• US President Trump said on Saturday that he will increase the global tariff that was announced on Friday from 10% to 15% with immediate effect. Trump also stated that the 15% level is the maximum allowed by law and is still temporary, as Section 122 tariffs, and they will use the 150 days that the temporary tariff allows to work on issuing other legally permissible tariffs.
• EU is set to freeze trade deal approval over US President Trump’s tariff risk, Bloomberg reports.
• US officials said that tariff deal partners should honour their agreements, while USTR Greer said he sought to separate the tariff agreements from the 15% global tariff that US President Trump recently announced.
• White House clarified that goods shipped under the USMCA will be exempt from the new global tariff that US President Trump announced on Friday, although risks regarding the future of the USMCA loom.
• German Chancellor Merz said expect the tariff burden on the German economy to be reduced following the US Supreme Court decision, while he added that they will have a very clear European position on this, as tariff policy is a matter for the EU, not individual member states, and he will go to Washington with a coordinated European position.
• US to cease collecting duties under IEEPA from 00:01EST/05:01GMT on February 24th, according to the Customs Agency.
• Goldman Sachs analysts indicate most Asian economies will experience slightly lower US tariffs after the Supreme Court ruling on IEEPA tariffs, with China expected to see the largest decline.
• China’s MOFCOM said it is assessing the US Supreme Court’s ruling on tariffs and urges the US to lift unilateral tariffs on trading partners. US tariffs on reciprocal goods and fentanyl breach trade rules and US law, and are not in the interest of any party.
• South Korea’s Industry Minister said chips are not subject to Trump’s new tariffs and noted uncertainty regarding US tariffs refund and that consultations with the US on tariffs and trade agreements will continue.
• South Korea’s Finance Minister said the trade deal with the US is still valid.
• Japanese ruling LDP tax chief Onodera said the US tariff situation was a real mess following the SCOTUS tariff ruling.
• US Treasury Secretary Bessent said nothing has changed on tariff revenue and trade deals; The tariff collection is closer to USD 130bln, probably not USD 175bln. Will get back to same tariff level for countries, and it will be less direct. Thinks that every country will honour the trade deals. Would call on all countries to honour their agreements and move forward.
• All countries with trade agreements now drop to a 10% tariff, and the 10% rate applies until new authorities and processes kick in, according to CNBC citing a White House official.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mixed amid trade uncertainty as the region digested the latest tariff developments after the US Supreme Court ruled against IEEPA tariffs on Friday, prompting President Trump to impose a global 10% flat-rate tariff, which he later raised to 15% over the weekend, while there were a couple of key market closures in the region with mainland China and Japan observing holidays. ASX 200 was dragged lower with underperformance seen in tech, healthcare and real estate, while participants also reflected on a deluge of earnings releases and the recent Trump 15% global tariff rate announcement, which would increase the levies on Australia from the previously agreed 10%. KOSPI initially benefitted from the tech strength amid gains in the likes of industry heavyweights Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, while South Korea’s Industry Minister also noted that chips were not subject to Trump’s new tariffs. However, the index then gradually gave back all its gains. Hang Seng rallied with tech stocks dominating the list of best performers in Hong Kong and with the local benchmark underpinned as a proxy to China, which is seen as the likely biggest winner from the US Supreme Court tariff ruling.

Top Asian News

• China reportedly experienced robust consumer activity across sectors during the Spring Festival holiday, according to China Daily.
• South Korea’s Vice Finance Minister said to closely watch financial markets.

European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.3%) show a mixed picture following the shifting tariff environment in recent days. The IBEX 35 (+0.8%) and FTSE MIB (+0.7%) outperform their peers, while the AEX (-0.3%) and DAX 40 (-0.5%) lag. European sectors are mixed. Consumer Products and Services (+1.1%), Banks (+0.8%) and Utilities (+0.9%) gain at the start of the week, aided by multiple broker upgrades for banks while Enel (+5.9%) supports the Utilities sector. The Co. updated its 2026-28 strategic plan, raising its planned investment to EUR 53bln from EUR 43bln, seeing cuts of up to EUR 700mln by 2028 and approved the execution of a new tranche of its share buyback programme. On the other hand, Technology (-1.4%) and Health Care (-1.6%) underperform. European tech giant ASML (-1.9%) seems to have been hit on OpenAI planning USD 600bln in compute spending by 2030 (prev. cited USD 1.4tln).

Top European News

• German Ifo Business Climate (Feb) 88.6 vs. Exp. 88.4 (Prev. 87.6).
• German Ifo Expectations (Feb) 90.5 vs. Exp. 90.3 (Prev. 89.5).
• German Ifo Current Conditions (Feb) 86.7 vs. Exp. 86.3 (Prev. 85.7).
• Italian Inflation Rate MoM Final (Jan) M/M 0.4% vs. Exp. 0.4% (Prev. 0.2%).

FX

• DXY is slightly lower this morning and trades within a 97.35 to 97.70 range. Further pressure could see a test of its 21 DMA at 97.15. All focus today on Trump’s latest decision to impose a sweeping 15% Section 122 import tariff, following the SCOTUS decision to rule IEEPA tariffs as unlawful. The implications of the decision are mixed, with the likes of the UK and Australia now worse off, whilst the likes of Brazil and China benefit from the lower rates. SEB writes that the preliminary estimate of the global average tariff rate is now marginally lower at 12%, which is 1-2 percentage points lower than the prior rate. The Budget Lab also sees the effective tariff rate at 13.7% (prev. 16% under IEEPA taxes).
• As it stands, there is some near-term certainty regarding Section 122 tariffs, which can be implemented for a maximum of 150 days. Thereafter, any extension would need to be passed through Congress. Therefore, uncertainty stems from several points; a) how the US aims to “make-up” for lost tariff revenue, b) how trade partners react to the latest levies, c) the potential use of other trade-related policies (Section 301, Section 338, Section 232).
• G10s are broadly firmer against the USD; the GBP and EUR leads, whilst the Aussie lags a touch. The latter is slightly underperforming, given Australia no longer benefits from its previously negotiated 10% rate, under IEEPA.
• For the EUR specifically, European Parliament’s trade chief is to propose freezing the ratification of the EU’s trade agreement with the US until they receive details from the Trump administration regarding its trade policy. On data, the German Ifo report improved from the prior and surpassed expectations, suggesting the region’s recovery is underway. Elsewhere, Japan’s ruling LDP tax chief Onodera, described the US tariff situation as a real mess. USD/JPY currently trades shy of the 155.00 mark, with the high of the day at 154.90, a touch above its 100 DMA at 154.90.

Central Banks

• Fed’s Hammack (2026 voter) said inflation has made amazing progress, but is still a problem, and the Fed can be very patient in considering future rate cuts. Hammack said monetary policy is only modestly restrictive and the economy was stronger than anticipated by December, while she added that tariffs have the potential to further complicate the inflation outlook.
• ECB’s Lagarde receives around EUR 140k a year as Bank for International Settlements board member, despite the ECB ban on third-party payments to staff, according to FT.
• BoK Governor Rhee said FX market conditions have improved but still need to be stabilised.

Fixed Income

• A relatively contained start for fixed income as markets continue to digest the latest tariff measures, and with APAC conditions thin on account of Japan’s holiday for the Emperor’s Birthday.
• USTs are firmer by a few ticks in thin 112-27+ to 113-02+ parameters, within but at the top end of Friday’s 112-23+ to 112-03+ confine; as a reminder, last week’s peak was 113-14. Focus is primarily on the tariff situation, as the latest POTUS measures in response to the SCOTUS ruling have effectively lowered the global rate by a pp or two. However, we of course remain attentive to any further updates by President Trump and/or his administration in the near term. Additionally, we await remarks from Fed’s Waller (voter), commentary that will be scrutinised for his tariff take. Thus far, Logan (2026) said the SCOTUS decision has led to more uncertainty and upside inflation risks remain, but noted that policy is well-positioned. Musalem (2028) stated that if the new tariffs are one-for-one, the outlook would be unchanged, but added that the ruling could introduce uncertainty. Note, the remarks were made before the weekend’s move to 15%.
• Bunds are contained, but at the lower end of c. 20 ticks parameters. The benchmark has found itself under modest pressure this morning as European cash bourses trade mixed and with futures attempting a move into the green. Ahead, supply from the bloc is scheduled, but the main focus will be on how the Hungarian block on Ukraine-related policies/sanctions by the EU shakes out.
• Gilts gapped higher by 11 ticks and then climbed a handful further to a 92.51 peak. Upside that comes as the 15% global effective tariff lifts the UK above the 10% it used to be subject to, and thus skews the bias towards a March vs April cut by the BoE. The main input into that debate this week will be the appearance of Governor Bailey at the TSC.

Commodities

• Crude benchmarks are more subdued in the early European session as the market continued to digest Trump’s 15% tariff decision in response to SCOTUS’ striking down his IEEPA tariffs. It’s worth noting that crude benchmarks have had their best year thus far since 2022 (the same year Russia invaded Ukraine), and as geopolitical tension continues to persist, US-Iran talks are set to resume this week.
• Precious metals have kicked off the week glowing amid uncertainties from tariffs and geopolitical tension with Iran, increasing their prospect as a haven. Following the SCOTUS decision, US President Trump raised global tariffs to 15% over the weekend, fuelling market uncertainty. Following the tariff updates, the USD weakened, consequently aiding precious metals. Focus also remains on the US and Iran, with a NYT report that US President Trump is reportedly considering a targeted strike on Iran, followed by a larger attack on Iran. Iran also responded, saying that any US attacks, including limited strikes, will be considered an act of aggression. Any further escalation after both countries are set to meet on Thursday will further elevate the precious metals. XAU and XAG are trading at the upper range of USD 5117.815-5146.990/oz and USD 84.227-87.663/oz, respectively.
• Copper appears to be paring some of its recent gains as markets digested the latest tariff developments, with US President Trump’s 15% flat-rate tariff seen as benefiting countries such as China and Brazil the most, while weighing on longer-term allies. Activity for the red metal has also picked up this morning, whilst mainland Chinese markets are due to reopen tomorrow. 3M LME copper trades in a tight range of USD 12,928-13,063/t. In other news, JPMorgan forecasts a copper deficit of 130k tonnes in 2026 and a 230k in the aluminium market in 2026
• JPMorgan forecasts a copper deficit of 130k tonnes in 2026.
• Lebanese bankers and politicians are eyeing a sale or lease of part of the central bank’s large gold reserves to rescue banks and the economy, according to FT.
• Japan is mining for deep sea rare earths to combat China’s chokehold, according to FT.
• Goldman Sachs raises its 2026 Q4 Brent oil forecast by USD 6 to USD 60/bbl.
• Morgan Stanley raises its near-term Brent forecasts as geopolitical risk premium likely persists for a period, still expects prices to soften to USD 60/bbl later in 2026.
• Chevron (CVX) announces an agreement for Iraq’s West Qurna 2 oil field.

Geopolitics – Middle East

• US President Trump reportedly considers a targeted strike on Iran, followed by a larger attack and is open to deposing the Supreme Leader by force if Iran is stubborn, according to NYT.
• US officials warned that if US President Trump orders strikes on Iran, Tehran could retaliate through proxies such as Hezbollah or Al-Qaeda, against American targets abroad.
• US-Iran talks are set to resume in Geneva on Thursday, according to Omani mediators, while Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi expects to meet with US Special Envoy Witkoff for discussions and reiterated that Iran will not be pressured by the military buildup in the region.
• Iran said any US attack, including limited strikes, will be considered an act of aggression.
• Iran Foreign Ministry spokesperson said there are discussions about the presence of IAEA’s Grossi in the third round of negotiations, Iran International reported; adds that Iran is working on a draft for any possible understanding.
• Iran’s Foreign Ministry said they hope to have another round of talks with the US in the coming days. Regarding IAEA Grossi’s view that there cannot be an agreement unless the inspection of bombed nuclear facilities is allowed, Iran said it does not accept that precondition.
• South Korean Embassy in Iran advised Korean nationals to leave Iran amid increasing tensions over a possible US military strike on Tehran, according to Yonhap.
• Palestinian media reported that Israeli artillery shelling is targeting areas in northeast Gaza City, according to Sky News Arabia.
• US officials warned if US President Trump orders strikes on Iran, Tehran could retaliate through proxies such as Hezbollah or Al-Qaeda against American targets abroad.
• Palestinian media reported Israeli warplanes launched two raids on Khan Yunus in the southern Gaza Strip, according to Sky News Arabia.
• US forces begin withdrawing their troops from Syria to Iraqi Kurdistan, according to Al Jazeera.

Geopolitics – Ukraine

• Russian Defence Ministry said Russian forces struck Ukrainian transport, energy and fuel infrastructure.
• EU Foreign Representative Kallas said she is not optimistic regarding potential progress in peace talks with Russia. Strong statements from Hungary indicate they will not change their stance on Russian sanctions today.
• Hungarian Foreign Minister said they will block EU decisions in relation to Ukraine until flows to the nation resume through the Druzhba pipeline.

US Event Calendar

• 8:30 am: United States Jan Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index, est. -0.08, prior -0.04
• 10:00 am: United States Dec Factory Orders, est. -0.6%, prior 2.7%
• 10:00 am: United States Dec F Durable Goods Orders, est. -1.4%, prior -1.4%
• 10:00 am: United States Dec F Durables Ex Transportation, est. 0.9%, prior 0.9%
• 10:30 am: United States Feb Dallas Fed Manf. Activity, est. -0.75, prior -1.2

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

As we start a new week, a great deal has happened since early Friday afternoon European time. By now, readers will be aware that the US Supreme Court ruled, by a 6–3 margin, that the administration’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose broad based tariffs was unconstitutional.

In the immediate aftermath, the administration signaled that it would pursue a 10% global tariff under Section 122 authority. By Saturday, this was increased to 15%—which, importantly, is the maximum tariff that can be imposed using this route. Key implementation details remain unclear, including the treatment of existing trade agreements and how refunds (with interest) will be handled for tariffs collected under the now invalid IEEPA framework.

This leaves a substantial amount of uncertainty, even if markets initially welcomed the perceived clarity of “only” a 10% tariff on Friday. Looking ahead, the reality is that the 15% tariff imposed under Section 122 can only remain in place for 150 days (late July), after which Congressional approval would be required to extend it. Section 122 was designed as a temporary tool to address emergency balance of payments issues and would likely face further legal challenges if rolled over repeatedly.

That raises a key political question: will a small number of Republicans in either chamber be reluctant to support what could be framed as an extension of a consumer tax hike just three and a half months before the mid term elections? At that point, the administration faces a binary choice: try to secure an extension or allow the tariff to lapse. The latter appears the more likely outcome. In that scenario, the administration would probably pivot to other legal authorities—most notably Section 232 (national security) or Section 301 (unfair trade practices)—to re establish a more durable tariff regime. While the groundwork for such a move has almost certainly been laid, these measures are narrower in scope and would themselves be vulnerable to legal challenge.

Importantly US Trade Representative Greer seemed to suggest yesterday that trade deals already agreed will remain in place and not be exposed to the new higher rate. In addition, the new Section 122 tariff info sheet confirmed that the temporary duty taking effect midnight tomorrow will exempt various categories that were previously exempt under IEEPA tariffs, such as critical minerals, pharma, electronics and USMCA-compliant goods. Put together, the Yale Budget Lab estimates the effective tariff rate at 14% under the 15% Section 122 tariffs, down from 16% before the Supreme Court IEEPEA ruling, and that this would fall to 9% if the Section 122 tariffs expired.

This confirms the DB house view that we continue to expect the effective tariff rate to fall in 2026. Indeed, since October the average customs duty collected has already declined by around two percentage points, to roughly 11%, largely due to carve outs and exemptions. Some of this easing has been attributed to the administration’s weak showing in local elections in early November, highlighting the domestic political constraints on another aggressive tariff escalation.

It will be interesting to see if the assurances from the likes of Greer ease concerns of those who have already agreed deals. Ahead of an emergency meeting today, European Parliament trade committee chair Bernd Lange suggested freezing ratification of the Turnberry Agreement “until we have a comprehensive legal assessment and clear commitments from the US.” As he put it: “Nobody can make sense of it anymore—only unanswered questions and growing uncertainty for the EU and other US trading partners.” So the only thing that’s certain is that we are certain that we don’t quite know how this is going to pan out but net net we still believe the effective tariff rate is coming down in 2026.

The weekend news has helped S&P (-0.74%) and Nasdaq (-0.94%) futures decline along with the Dollar index (-0.34%). Euro Stoxx futures (-0.54%) are also lower. US and European bond futures are rallying slightly with US cash trading closed due to the holiday in Japan. Elsewhere in Asia markets are more bouyant with the Hang Seng (+2.29%) leading gains after significant losses last week, buoyed by strength in technology, industrial, and automotive stocks, whereas the KOSPI (+0.18%) is just about holding onto its gains after an initial rise of over +1.0%. In contrast, the S&P/ASX 200 (-0.69%) is lower.

If we can move on from the latest tariff news, we will also have more geopolitical headlines to contend with this week, as the latest round of US-Iran talks is expected in Geneva on Thursday. The talks come amid a recent buildup of US forces in the region and yesterday the New York Times was the latest outlet to report that Trump is considering an initial targeted strike against Iran in the coming days, which could be followed by a larger attack if Iran does not give in to US nuclear demands. Brent oil prices are -1.21% lower this morning trading at $70.85/bbl as we go to press as some of the weekend risk premium is being unwound.

Other highlights for the week ahead include the State of the Union address in the US (late tomorrow), US PPI and preliminary CPIs in Europe (both Friday). In earnings, the focus will be on Nvidia, Salesforce (both Wednesday) and Home Depot (tomorrow). Nvidia’s earnings could be the most important of these but expect lots of headlines from the State of the Union speech.

Friday’s US PPI release—where headline and core inflation are both forecast at 0.3%—will matter less in isolation than for its implications for the core PCE deflator. While January CPI surprised to the downside relative to our expectations, the implications for core PCE continue to appear less favourable, with our economists currently looking for a 0.4% monthly increase. Depending on the strength of key PPI components such as medical services, airfares, and portfolio management fees, a 0.5% increase in January core PCE cannot be ruled out, which would lift the year-over-year rate to around 3.1%. So an important release, especially in the sub-components.

There is a fair degree of Fed speak this week, with Waller (today and tomorrow) a highlight given he dissented in favour of a 25bps cut in January due to concerns over the labour market. However, we’ve subsequently seen a firm January jobs report and a firm December core PCE print, so will he shift his stance a bit? See the day-by-day week ahead at the end as usual for the rest of the Fed speakers and the key global data.  

Elsewhere in the world, we have the German Ifo today and the preliminary European February CPI prints including for countries such as Germany, France and Spain, among others, on Friday. There will also be economic sentiment measures for key economies including consumer confidence in the UK, Germany and France, as well as the ECB’s consumer expectations survey due Friday.

Over in Asia, it’s a busy week ahead for Japan with key releases including the Tokyo CPI for February and the January industrial production both due on Friday. Our Chief Japan Economist expects core CPI inflation (ex. fresh food) of 1.7% YoY (2.0% in January) and core-core CPI inflation (ex. fresh food and energy) of 2.4% (2.4% in January). For industrial production, he sees a robust 4.5% MoM gain. See more in his full week-ahead here. Elsewhere, inflation will also be in focus in Australia and our economists expect a -0.2% MoM headline print and a 0.24% MoM trimmed mean print.

Other than Nvidia on Wednesday, other tech firms reporting include Salesforce, Intuit, Snowflake and CoreWeave. Amongst US consumer firms, the focus will be on Home Depot, TJX and Lowe’s. Over in Europe, there will be results from HSBC and Allianz in financials as well as other large firms such as Deutsche Telekom, Schneider Electric, Iberdrola and Rolls-Royce.

Recapping last week now, which was full of fast-shifting narratives, moving on from AI worries to fears of geopolitical escalation between the US and Iran to a clearly upbeat tone on Friday after the Supreme Court ruling on IEEPA tariffs. With all said and done, the S&P 500 rose +1.07% (+0.69% on Friday). Tech stocks led the recovery, with the NASDAQ (+1.51%, +0.90% on Friday) rising for the first time in six weeks and the Mag-7 (+2.31%, +1.55% Friday) having its best week since November. But it was the equal-weighted S&P (+0.55%, +0.50% Friday) that ended the week at a new record high. Those gains came even as private credit worries resurfaced after Blue Owl Capital (-12.11% over the week) announced it wouldn’t re-open a withdrawal from one of its retail-focused private credit funds, which also weighed on other private equity companies.

The equity gains were even stronger in Europe, as the Stoxx 600 advanced +2.08% over the week (+0.84% on Friday) to a fresh high, with the FTSE 100 (+2.30%, +0.56% on Friday), and CAC 40 (+2.45%, +1.39% on Friday) also breaking new records. In addition to the breather from the AI turmoil and the SCOTUS overrule of IEEPA tariffs, European markets were supported by better-than-expected flash PMIs on Friday. The Euro Area composite PMI (51.9 versus 51.5 exp, 51.3 prev.) rose after three consecutive declines, led by Germany (53.1 vs 52.3 est.), supporting our European analysts’ view that Germany is starting to benefit from its fiscal expansion.

Over in the US, data releases included strong January industrial production (+0.7% m/m vs +0.4% est.) on Wednesday and initial jobless claims (206k vs 225k est.) on Thursday. While Q4 GDP growth came in weaker (+1.4% q/q vs +2.8% q/q expected) on Friday, this was accompanied by a stronger core PCE inflation reading for December (+0.4% m/m vs +0.3% m/m expected) which brought the annual rate of the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge back up to +3.0% for the first time in ten months.  With investors dialling back their expectations for Fed rate cuts this year and the SCOTUS ruling raising questions over the US fiscal outlook, the Treasury curve moved higher, with the 2yr yield up +7.0bps (+1.9bps Friday) and the 10yr up +3.6bps to 4.09% (+1.7bps Friday).

European bonds outperformed, with yields on 10yr bunds (-1.7bps, -0.5bps Friday) and OATs (-4.1bps, -1.5bps on Friday) falling. And 10yr gilt yields (-6.3bps, -1.5bps Friday) saw a larger decline, after weaker labour market data on Wednesday raised expectations that the BoE will cut rates in March, with pricing of a March rate cut rising from 71% to 81% over the week.

Finally, oil saw its largest two-day jump since October 2025, as reports circulated that a conflict between the US and Iran could be imminent and Trump escalated his rhetoric against Tehran. Brent crude rose +5.92% over the week (+0.14% on Friday). Metals also rallied, with gold (+1.30%, +2.23% Friday) rising to $5,107/oz.

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

Disney’s latest cartoon misfire, “Captain Durag,” sparked a firestorm of criticism for allegedly stereotyping black culture—until the black creator stepped forward, promptly defusing the leftist mob’s fury.

The character, a black superhero battling “grime” in Slime City with a durag as his cape and mask, debuted amid Black History Month on Disney Jr.’s “Hey AJ!” and was quickly branded an “abomination” online.

Social media erupted with complaints like one X user’s post: “They made a ‘Captain Durag’ in 2026 what the f–ck Disney.” Another called it “wildly tone deaf.”

The concept of Captain Durag is wildly tone deaf. A black superhero with a durag as both his cape and mask, with a literal snow bunny as his sidekick, that is more of a garbage man than a superhero… pic.twitter.com/Dk1SSH1nC3

— Black Culture Is Pop Culture (@BCisPC) February 18, 2026

The backlash intensified from within the black community, prompting Disney to yank several clips from YouTube without an official statement.

Captain Durag is low-key diabolical on black history month https://t.co/TcJ2cUgKhm

— I know u are but what am i? (@Only1ThxtHobbit) February 17, 2026

But then creator Camille Corbett, a 28-year-old Jamaican-American artist and comedian, defended her work on X, stating “I created the character Durag Man, now known as Captain Durag on the Disney Show, Hey AJ and I’m just finding out people are finding it problematic? I just wanted our culture to have a superhero of its own!”

I created the character Durag Man, now known as Captain Durag on the Disney Show, Hey AJ and I’m just finding out people are finding it problematic? I just wanted our culture to have a superhero of its own! pic.twitter.com/0Klh7soTPG

— Camille Corbett (@TheWittyGirl) February 16, 2026

Corbett told The New York Post that “as a scholar,” she’d “never speak on anything I’ve never experienced,” urging viewers to actually watch the show.

“Hey AJ!” creator Martellus Bennett echoed her on Instagram: “If that offends you, maybe the problem isn’t the durag. Maybe the problem is that you’ve never seen black imagination treated as sacred, heroic and worthy of a cape.”

Bennett described the character as a reflection of black life, pushing back against detractors who saw it as reducing black identity to caricature.

Once Corbett’s identity surfaced, the outrage mostly evaporated—exposing the hypocrisy of critics who slam “stereotypes” until ownership aligns with their identity politics playbook.

We didn’t know if this came from one of us or one of them. Can’t be too cautious

— Balliver Shagnasty (@BeautyfullZo) February 16, 2026

One of them? Who is them?

Also, if you can’t tell the difference between ‘heroic’ characteristics and a stereotype, it might be time to examine why that stereotype exists.

it was either a super black idea or a VERY bad stereotype and the internet couldn’t determine which cause it was too close on the line ?

— kenny (@relientkenny) February 17, 2026

and i couldn’t be happier someone black was behind this ???

— kenny (@relientkenny) February 17, 2026

I think it’s funny. I like this show.

And some of y’all need to get over your fucking selves.

Everything does not require a “we shall overcome” moment. Every Black character is not obligated to carry the weight of history on their back. Sometimes it’s just a joke. Sometimes…

— AceVane (@AcEvAne) February 17, 2026

Some were still intent on being offended.

Why isnt a durag positive?

— Savvy ( ?ˆ?ˆ? ) (@MadamSavvy) February 17, 2026

Ok you’re Jamaican. Please don’t ever try to do a character about black America again. It’s not your culture & you don’t understand us. Please do a Jamaican caricature

— Ms.OriginalBlackAmerican ?? (@OriginalBLKAmer) February 17, 2026

“We” you French and not Spanish today? You created a super hero and named him “duragman “ thus gas to be a God damn joke . You’re not FBA but you wish to use the worst of our culture. I feel like you Are you mocking us? Why don’t you create a character named “Flee Man” a super…

— Queen (@veraJameswalker) February 17, 2026

Looking through the comments, most of the people who praise this nonsense are non black people. That’s a major problem. It’s also not surprising coming from someone who isn’t a Foundational Black American. We unapologetically reject this trash representation of us.

— Lamar ???? FBA B1 (@HTownFBA) February 17, 2026

Let’s face it, there are far worse things to criticise Disney for.

For starters, the company recently abandoned a transgender storyline in a new Pixar show, backing off after internal pushback exposed their agenda to inject gender ideology into kids’ content.

Elon Musk has directly accused Disney CEO Bob Iger of endorsing child sex material, amplifying concerns over the company’s tolerance for predatory themes.

A few years back, Disney announced a new original series for called Pauline in which an 18 year old girl gets impregnated on a one-night stand then catches feelings for the individual responsible, with that individual being SATAN.

Leave it to Disney to call the birth of the Anti-Christ a ‘coming of age’ movie.”

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

The Sunday killing of Nemesio “El Mencho” Oseguera Cervantes, the leader of Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG), by Mexican security forces unleashed coordinated cartel retaliation attacks, driving rapid instability across Guadalajara (Jalisco’s capital) and spilling into high-traffic resort areas, including Puerto Vallarta.

CNN reported that the US provided intelligence support to Mexican Army Special Forces, aided by aircraft and the National Guard’s Immediate Reaction Force, during the operation to capture Oseguera. The operation, however, devolved into a fierce firefight with CJNG operatives and El Mencho that ultimately resulted in his death.

Almost immediately after El Mencho’s death, Guadalajara, Mexico’s third-largest city and the capital of Jalisco State, plunged into instant chaos as CJNG foot soldiers sparked narco-terrorism operations.

NEW:

🇲🇽 Puerto Vallarta, is one of Mexico’s top tourist destinations, welcoming a record-breaking 6.3 million visitors last year.

Today, it’s a war zone following the take out of the Mexican CJNG cartel leader Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes by the military, reportedly assisted by… pic.twitter.com/Ib7P6XzD8z

— Megatron (@Megatron_ron) February 22, 2026

This violence spread into popular beach resort towns across Mexico, as gunmen torched retail shops, gas stations, and vehicles, and blockaded highways.

🚨Update: Fighting between Mexican military forces and Narco Terrorist Cartels after major Drug Overlord killed in joint operation with the United States. All Americans across Mexico are ordered to shelter in place. Major battles are being fought everywhere as Soldiers and Police… pic.twitter.com/nQySP7opgC

— US Homeland Security News (@defense_civil25) February 22, 2026

The popular tourist town of Puerto Vallarta was partially set on fire as American visitors watched in horror. The US Embassy issued a “shelter in place” order for the region, and airlines canceled flights to Guadalajara’s international airport amid the chaos.

En la zona turística de Puerto Vallarta, Jalisco, se observan columnas de humo derivadas de los bloqueos y ataques perpetrados por el Cártel Jalisco Nueva Generación, luego del abatimiento de Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, alias “El Mencho”. pic.twitter.com/sQToLtl0Ev

— Raúl Brindis (@raulbrindis) February 22, 2026

pic.twitter.com/2SPKp6ejq2

— Nat (@Nurive87) February 22, 2026

This military operation in the state of Jalisco casts a negative light on the region, which is scheduled to host four matches of the 2026 soccer World Cup in June.

Jalisco is one of the Last Strongholds of the Mexican Opposition and a Center of Power for Several Criminal Groups pic.twitter.com/OkCirVsL0O

— ✦✦✦ 𝙿𝚊𝚖𝚙𝚑𝚕𝚎𝚝𝚜 ✦✦✦ (@PamphletsY) February 22, 2026

A key question is whether CJNG can survive. Its future depends on how quickly it appoints a successor; if not, the cartel may fragment as internal power struggles begin.

Two questions:

• The first question concerns CJNG’s survivability. It will hinge on how quickly the group can appoint a successor; if it fails to do so, the cartel could splinter as internal power struggles intensify.

• A second question is whether Mexico’s military can sustain a multi-front fight, as it now faces both CJNG and the Sinaloa Cartel.

“This is undoubtedly the most important blow that has been dealt to drug trafficking in Mexico since drug trafficking existed in Mexico,” Eduardo Guerrero, a former Mexican security official and cartel expert, told the New York Times.

“Never in Mexico has there been an organization with the presence, territorial control or political penetration that the Jalisco New Generation Cartel has,” Guerrero added. “The cartels we had in Mexico were more regional in nature.”

On Sunday, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt wrote on X that the US provided “support to the Mexican government” to assist in the operation against CJNG.

“Last year, President Trump rightfully designated the Jalisco New Generation Cartel as a Foreign Terrorist Organization, because that’s exactly what it is. In this operation, three additional cartel members were killed, three were wounded, and two were arrested,” Leavitt said.

She noted, “President Trump has been very clear: the United States will ensure narcoterrorists sending deadly drugs to our homeland are forced to face the wrath of justice they have long deserved.”

The United States provided intelligence support to the Mexican government in order to assist with an operation in Talpalpa, Jalisco, Mexico, in which Nemesio ‘El Mencho’ Oseguera Cervantes, an infamous drug lord and leader within the Jalisco New Generation Cartel, was eliminated.… https://t.co/iKxsAMmnLN

— Karoline Leavitt (@PressSec) February 23, 2026

El Mencho’s death could elevate near-term spillover risks into the U.S., especially given the Biden-Harris regime’s years of facilitating an illegal alien invasion on the Homeland.

A reminder that a vast majority of the millions who crossed the border illegally during the Biden administration were lining the pockets of cartels like CJNG, paying thousands, sometimes tens of thousands of $ per head to be smuggled into the Unites States. Color coded cartel… pic.twitter.com/fJiw8hgtSE

— Bill Melugin (@BillMelugin_) February 22, 2026

The Trump administration has sought to address the national-security fallout by ramping up deportation operations, but legal challenges from unhinged left-wing judges have complicated efforts.