Authored by Debra Heine via American Greatness,

The Department of Justice on Tuesday served grand jury subpoenas to five Democrat-controlled government offices in Minnesota, including Gov. Tim Walz’s office, Attorney General Keith Ellison’s office, and Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey’s office, according to Fox News. 

The subpoenas are part of a federal investigation into alleged conspiracy to obstruct or impede federal law enforcement in the state.

The FBI is seeking records and communications related to Democrat officials’ responses to federal immigration enforcement actions.

Approximately 3,000 federal agents are currently deployed in Minnesota, as part of an immigration operation dubbed “Operation Metro Surge.” The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) announced on Monday that the operation has resulted in the arrests of 3,000 criminal illegal aliens, “including vicious murderers, rapists, child pedophiles, and incredibly dangerous individuals.”

However, the law enforcement effort has been hampered at every turn by highly trained and coordinated anti-ICE militants in what Trump administration officials have called an “insurgency,” and “domestic terrorism.”

“Mayor Jacob Frey, Governor Tim Walz, and Attorney General Keith Ellison have deliberately, willfully and purposefully incited this violent insurgency against Immigration and Customs Enforcement, and against Border Patrol, top White House advisor Stephen Miller said during appearance on Fox News’ Ingraham Angle, last week.

Miller pointed out that the insurgents routinely disrupt operations by tracking ICE vehicles through spotters and blocking them.

“Then they dox ICE officers. They follow them home, they follow them to where they sleep at night,” he said.

“It’s a sophisticated insurgency involving a large number of radicalized extremist, violent leftwing operators stoked by the Democrat party,” Miller declared.

Their reckless tactics resulted in the fatal shooting of anti-ICE agitator Renee Good by an ICE officer on January 7, which sparked more violent riots and calls from the Democrat state leaders for ICE to leave the state.

Walz, Frey, and Ellison have all publicly denounced the federal presence, with Ellison filing a lawsuit calling it an unconstitutional “federal invasion.”

Frey’s office has been called to appear at the U.S. federal courthouse on Feb. 3, according to FOX 9.

In a statement, Frey said:

“When the federal government weaponizes its power to try to intimidate local leaders for doing their jobs, every American should be concerned. We shouldn’t have to live in a country where people fear that federal law enforcement will be used to play politics or crack down on local voices they disagree with. In Minneapolis, we won’t be afraid. We know the difference between right and wrong, and, as Mayor, I’ll continue doing the job I was elected to do: keeping our community safe and standing up for our values.”

Gov. Walz released the following statement on social media, calling the DOJ investigation a “partisan distraction.”

Keith Ellison on Tuesday released a statement declaring his intention of staying in the race for Minnesota’s attorney general “as the federal government targets Minnesota.”

Via Remix News,

During the farmers’ protest in Strasbourg, ahead of the European Parliament’s vote on the Mercosur trade deal, police used tear gas against demonstrators seeking an appeal to block the agreement.

Officers reportedly were forced to throw stun grenades at the protesters as they tried to enter the parliament building.

“Farmers are trying to get into the European Parliament. The police used tear gas,” wrote MEP Maciej Wąsik of the Law and Justice party (PiS) on social media.

Rolnicy próbują dostać się do Parlamentu Europejskiego. Policja użyła gazu. pic.twitter.com/VEP1ZRiLfl

— Maciej Wąsik 🇵🇱 (@WasikMaciej) January 20, 2026

Remix News reported yesterday that around 4,000 farmers from across the European Union, including Italy, Belgium, and Germany, were expected to descend on Strasbourg, with French farmers forming the majority.

JUST IN: Battles between farmers and police break out in Strasbourg.

Thousands of farmers are protesting the EU’s disastrous Mercosur free trade deal.

Police fire tear gas while EU elites wine and dine at the WEF in Davos. pic.twitter.com/JwaK0NLMGW

— Remix News & Views (@RMXnews) January 20, 2026

Actual numbers were cited as high as 4,500, with the protesters are demanding that the Mercosur trade agreement signed by Ursula von der Leyen be blocked.

“Even if some countries support Mercosur, within those countries there are MEPs who have serious doubts, and it could come down to just a few votes, so we need to keep up the pressure,”  said Hervé Lapie, secretary general of the National Federation of Farmers’ Unions (FNSEA).

The European Parliament is scheduled to vote on a possible appeal to the European Court of Justice, but this seems unlikely. The parliament’s main political group, the EPP (which includes the Civic Coalition and the Polish People’s Party), has announced that it will not support such a motion, paving the way for an easy ratification vote today.

🇫🇷🇪🇺 26-year-old French organic farmer, Anaïs Foulquier, says that the EU’s new Mercosur free trade deal with South America will destroy her farm.

“We are young organic farmers. We rear our own goats, dairy cows and laying hens. We respect everything, the standards, the… pic.twitter.com/UyJjN0cWY8

— Remix News & Views (@RMXnews) January 20, 2026

The Mercosur agreement is intended to boost EU exports of cars, machinery, wines and spirits to Latin America, while facilitating imports into Europe of South American beef, sugar, rice, honey and soybeans. Farmers’ organizations, however, warn that the deal will destabilize European agriculture by exposing it to cheaper imports that do not necessarily comply with EU production standards, citing what they describe as insufficient controls.

The Mercosur deal has also revealed that the EU’s concerns about climate change are flimsy at best. The deal will see cheap and dangerous agricultural goods pour into Europe from halfway across the world. The EU’s “farm-to-table” programs also appear to have been blown up by the new deal. Of course, there is nothing about “eat local” when food is being shipped from the other side of the world.

Brazil alone allows the use of as many as 3,669 pesticides and has cleared away millions of acres of rainforest to create monoculture mega farms. The destruction of the rain forest will only accelerate with this new deal.

One Brazilian state, Mato Grosso, eatures the most “agrotoxicity” in the world. Soon, Europeans will be eating this food.

“This Brazilian state is the kingdom of the agricultural industry. Cotton, rice, sugarcane, corn, massive production of transgenic soybeans, and record pesticide use. Mato Grosso wins every global competition in the field of agrotoxicity. That’s the term used by those who condemn the chemical empire. Brazil allows the use of 3,669 pesticides. It’s a veritable El Dorado for corporations, primarily European ones. Products banned on the Old Continent are sold here,” stated the French-German documentary “Pesticides: Europe’s Hypocrisy.”

Read more here…

U.S. natural gas futures are on pace for the largest weekly increase on record, according to Bloomberg data spanning more than 35 years.

An Arctic air invasion of the eastern half of the US, combined with the increasing risk of a major winter storm stretching from Texas through the Mid-Atlantic and into the Northeast by this weekend, has triggered sharp upside repricing and panic-style buying in NatGas futures.

As of Wednesday morning, New York NatGas futures are up another 19%. Combined with earlier gains this week, prices have jumped roughly 50% so far. If these gains are sustained through Friday, it would mark the largest weekly increase in NatGas on record, going back to 1990.

The sharp repricing of NatGas futures nearly sent prices to the $5 level earlier in the trading session.

We have documented the incoming cold blast and winter storm threats, with impacts on energy markets in the last five days:

• This Could Be The Big One

• NatGas Futs Erupt As Arctic Air Invasion Penetrates Deep Into US South

• US NatGas Spikes Most Since Ukraine Invasion On Arctic Blast, Major Winter Storm Threat

Ranald Falconer, a derivatives trader at Goldman, provided clients with more color on what could be a historic cold blast for the eastern half of the Lower 48:

Henry Hub on an absolute tear overnight! Front natural gas contracts hit a $4.95 high overnight, peaking just before the London open. The over-riding story here has not changed a great deal, as I mentioned yesterday when looking at Europe, cold weather fronts have been pushed deeper into Jan, and now Feb.

That draw on gas for heating has obviously pushed flat price in Q1 higher, and with it we have seen shorts get stopped out. That isn’t new; I mentioned some sizable Feb/Mar shorts being bought back end of last week, and yesterday similar in TTF. Overnight though, that is one heck of a move! If that is flat price stops in Feb and Mar, it is a strange time of day to put that sort of volume through the screens. I have Feb and Mar trading 3.5x and 4.0x their normal daily accumulated volume at this point.

This note is slightly later than I would have been able to bash it out, but I have had about 6 or 7 separate conversations on the topic with people a lot smarter in the gas world than me. Most poignant comment was that they had not seen such a dramatic change in the weather runs.

The NOAA chart below is probably the most simplistic way to visualise this without going into the weeds on the vortex and disruption there. Simply put, a strong high pressure area over Northern Canada is stretching the vortex north to south, which displaces the vortex core and causes northerly flow over the Eastern States.

I don’t think I have ever seen that shade of blue on the short term forecasts on NOAA, not sure I would want to be in New York over the next week.

Alongside the cold temperatures, NOAA forecasts frigid cold air to be accompanied by gusty winds taking the wind chill factor into play too. The kicker to the Jan balmo is that these forecasts now stretch into Feb; note that the Euro Weekly data had Feb at max warm in early Feb not that long ago.

With this spike we will be pricing in LNG shut-in too as export facilities continue to pull feed gas from domestic production, this may now be required for HHDs.

Fundamentally, there has been no disruption that I can see or read, so this is all weather and a severe volume move overnight. It will be interesting to see how positioning in Q2 stacks up as we move into spring forecasts.

The latest models from private weather forecaster BAMWX of the upcoming storm have some of us reminiscing about the January 1996 blizzard that blanketed the Washington, DC, region with feet of snow…

The January 1996 blizzard:

Stay warm! Prepare.

Futures have reversed modest overnight gains and are trading near session lows while small caps continue to outperform (for a record 12th day in a row) even as Japanese and global bond yields stabilize and the market awaits today’s major catalysts including Trump’s speech in Davos due within the hour after flight had to be changed due to mechanical issues, while the Supreme Court will consider whether Trump can fire the Fed’s Cook.Selling pressure initially eased after Trump struck a more conciliatory tone ahead of his departure for the World Economic Forum, even as he continued to insist the US should take control of the Danish territory. As of 8:00am, S&P futures are down 0.1%, while Nasdaq futures drop 0.3% with Mag7 names mixed in premarket trading, semis are bid; discretionary leading Staples; energy / mats seeing significant outperformance. Bond yields are 1-2bp lower and USD is once again lower on the day. Commodities are seeing strength in ags, natgas and precious, with gold approaching a record high at 4,900 The macro focus today is Davos and housing related data. 

In premarket trading, Magnificent Seven stocks are mostly lower (Nvidia +0.1%, Meta +0.01%, Tesla -0.2%, Amazon -0.3%, Microsoft -0.3%, Alphabet -0.9%, Apple -0.2%)

• Biohaven (BHVN) rises 3% after RBC upgraded the drugmaker to outperform, citing recent supportive data that reduces risk.
• Halliburton (HAL) climbs 2% after the fracking company reported fourth-quarter adjusted earnings per share that beat the average analyst estimate.
• Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) falls 1% after posting fourth-quarter sales.
• Kraft Heinz (KHC) declines 5% as Berkshire Hathaway may soon sell some or all of its stake in the company, just months after the cheese and ketchup maker announced plans to split into two.
• Nathan’s Famous (NATH) rises 8% as Smithfield Foods agreed to buy the company for $102 a share.
• Netflix (NFLX) falls 7% after the streaming giant forecast first-quarter earnings below the average analyst estimate. The company also plans to pause its share buybacks in an effort to accumulate cash to fund the pending acquisition of Warner Bros.
• Progress Software (PRGS) rises 6% after the company’s 2026 revenue forecast exceeded Wall Street expectations.
• United Airlines (UAL) rises 3% after the carrier beat Wall Street estimates for the fourth quarter and anticipates a strong 2026, driven by demand from high-spending domestic passengers and international travelers.

In corporate news, Qatar’s sovereign wealth fund is said to have considered separating its overseas holdings from its domestic portfolio. Kraft Heinz is lower in premarket trading after registering up to 325 million shares held by Berkshire Hathaway for potential sale.

The market’s mood remains extremely shaky (and even more illiquid with top of book collapsing 60% overnight according to Goldman) with gold continuing to hit new highs. JPMorgan AM CIO Bob Michele said Tuesday’s market selloff should be a message to Trump to take action to restore calm. Still, the moves weren’t nearly as dramatic as April’s selloff, leaving the TACO trade with a problem: If TACO means investors don’t need to panic, then there are no market collapses violent enough to spook Trump into backing down.

Meanwhile, Trump expressed confidence that the EU would continue to invest in the US even if he imposed new tariffs related to his quest to annex Greenland. He is due to speak in Davos at 8:30 a.m. New York time, though his travel was delayed after an electrical issue with Air Force One. His threat of tariffs in pursuit of Greenland, and refusal to rule out military options, are giving the equity bull run its biggest test since the trade turmoil of April, even as investor optimism remains elevated amid a broadening rally. Sill, selling pressure initially eased after Trump struck a more conciliatory tone ahead of his departure for the World Economic Forum, even as he continued to insist the US should take control of the Danish territory.

In other newsflow out of Davos, Bessent said Powell is “politicizing” the Fed and cautioning European nations against ramping up their military presence on Greenland. That followed news of France requesting that NATO carry out a military exercise. And there’s also drama over a Deutsche Bank analyst note that suggested European investors may dump US assets.

A sharp rebound in long-dated Japanese bonds offered a lift to global debt markets, with the yield on 30-year US Treasuries holding steady as shorter-term rates eased. Precious metals remained the haven of choice as gold closed in on $4,900 an ounce. The dollar’s slide extended to a fourth day.

“Despite all the geopolitical noise, we’re in a purely technical correction in equity markets, not a widespread risk-off episode,” said Roberto Scholtes, head of strategy at Singular Bank. “Conciliatory remarks by Trump would surely improve the mood in markets but, in my view, wouldn’t trigger a strong rally unless yield curves come down.”

Rotation continues, with the Russell 2000 now outperforming the Mag 7 by more than 10% year-to-date. Tesla closed below its 100-DMA for the first time since July, while Netflix’s disappointing guidance will do little to help tech in the short-term. Today’s Taking Stock highlights strategists seeing a buying opportunity — they reckon risk assets have long looked past geopolitics, except when unrest causes oil prices to spike.

While Trump earlier played down the likelihood that the standoff over Greenland would jeopardize his trade deal with the European Union, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent kept up the administration’s offensive on Wednesday. Speaking in Davos, Bessent dismissed concerns about Denmark and other nations pulling out of Treasuries, saying Danish investment in US bonds was “irrelevant.” He also cautioned European nations against ramping up their military presence in Greenland.

JPMorgan Asset Management’s Bob Michele said the selloff in markets was a message to the White House to restore calm. “Things are a bit chaotic and the markets do feel a bit panicked,” Michele, chief investment officer and global head of fixed income, told Bloomberg TV. “The market had a fit in April and then they backed off of a lot of things and then calm ensued. We need to hear some of the same kinds of things.”

Investors will also follow arguments in the US Supreme Court over whether Trump can fire Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook. The hearing coincides with a Justice Department criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell, together serving as tests of the central bank’s independence.

Elsewhere, as earnings season kicks into full swing, strategists said a sustained upswing in stocks will depend on strong forecasts and signs that capital investments in big tech are starting to pay off. “We’ve overstretched in many different assets over the past two weeks, which meant that you’ve got to overbought territories and so you had to have a bit of a healthy correction,” said Georges Debbas, head of European equity and derivatives strategy at BNP Paribas.

European stocks have also drifted lower throughout the morning with markets tentative ahead of President Donald Trump’s Davos appearance. The Stoxx 600 falls 0.6%, weighed down by financials and tech. Materials and luxury names outperform.  Here are the biggest movers Wednesday:

• European mining stocks are leading gains on the Stoxx 600 benchmark
• Rio Tinto rallied as much as 5.2% in London, to its highest intraday level since May 2021 after copper and iron ore production topped analyst estimates
• Burberry shares jump as much as 6.6%, after a third-quarter sales update that was perceived positively by analysts who see it as another sign that the UK fashion brand’s turnaround strategy is paying off
• Barry Callebaut shares surge as much as 7.9%, the most in a month, after the Swiss bulk chocolate maker reported sales that beat estimates and replaced its chief executive officer
• Quilter shares rise as much as 4.9%, the most in three months, as the UK wealth manager reports a record quarter for net inflows
• JD Sports shares climb as much as 3.2% after the sportswear retailer’s results reveal
• Danone falls as much as 12% before trimming the decline. Traders point to broker commentary around an announcement by the Singapore Food Agency recalling additional infant formula products
• DocMorris shares drop as much as 8.3% in Zurich, after the online pharmacy provided a trading update, with Barclays analysts noting “some disappointment” around the limited prescription growth in Germany in 4Q
• JD Wetherspoon shares fall as much as 8.5%, marking the biggest drop since March, as the pub chain tempered profit expectations for this year after warning costs have increased more than anticipated
• Apotea falls as much as 18%, the most since its 2024 IPO, after the Swedish online pharmacy issued a profit warning for the fourth quarter on Friday evening

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks dropped but were off the worst level of the session: mainland China indexes gain ground, while those in Japan move off worst levels and Kospi flips to a modest advance. The ChiNext index outshines regional peers with an almost 1% rally.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is down 0.1% with the greenback mixed versus peers. The kiwi and krone are top of the leaderboard, while the franc and pound are at the bottom. The latter saw little immediate reaction to a larger-than-expected uptick in headline inflation, with the increase expected to be temporary.

In rates, treasuries are up a few ticks with yields across the curve down 1-2bps as the yield curve continuing to steepen. The initial bid in bunds that was triggered by a recovery in JGBs overnight has fizzled out. A sharp rebound in long-dated Japanese bonds during Asia session provided support, however S&P 500 futures have erased their rebound following 2.1% cash-market slump. US front-end yields are about 2bp richer on the day with 5s30s spread steeper by about 2bp. 10-year near 4.28% is about 1bp lower, outperforming German counterpart by about 2bp. UK 10-year yield is also marginally lower on the day following December inflation data. JGB market saw calmness restored after political leader Tamaki suggested debt buybacks and reducing 40-year bond issuance as next steps.Treasury auctions resume Wednesday with $13 billion 20-year bond reopening. WI 20-year yield near 4.875% is ~8bp cheaper than last month’s auction, which stopped through by 0.1bp. A $21 billion 10-year TIPS auction follows on Thursday. Focal points of Wednesday’s US session include a 20-year bond auction and US President Trump speech in Davos at 2:30pm local time (8:30am in New York). 

In commodities, the rally in precious metals has continued with spot gold and silver higher by 2.2% and 0.2% respectively – the former hit another all-time-high and is just over $100 away from the $5,000/oz mark. Crude has turned positive. Bitcoin is down 0.7%. Natural gas futures surged as much as 27% as weather forecasts call for a deep freeze to grip much of the country during the weeks ahead. The IEA increased its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026 for a third consecutive month, trimming a projected supply glut.

The US economic calendar includes October construction spending and December pending home sales (10am). Fed officials are in communications blackout ahead of the Jan. 28 policy decision

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini +0.2%
• Nasdaq 100 mini +0.2%
• Russell 2000 mini +0.3%
• Stoxx Europe 600 -0.4%
• DAX -0.7%
• CAC 40 -0.2%
• 10-year Treasury yield -2 basis points at 4.28%
• VIX -0.5 points at 19.62
• Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1205.65
• euro -0.2% at $1.1705
• WTI crude -0.6% at $60.01/barrel

Top Overnight News

• President Donald Trump arrived in Switzerland to attend the World Economic Forum and is set to deliver his speech at its scheduled time despite his flight being delayed by a mechanical issue.Trump arrived on a smaller Boeing 757 plane typically used by the US vice president and other Cabinet members, in lieu of the 747 aircraft he initially planned to use for the transatlantic trip. Among other things, Trump’s speech will touch on Venezuela and Greenland: BBG
• A Supreme Court hearing starts today over Trump’s effort to oust Lisa Cook from the Fed over mortgage-fraud allegations that she denies. BI gives her a 60% chance of winning given the justices’ previous signal of a higher bar for removing Fed governors. BBG
• After pulling back from strikes on Iran last week, President Trump is still pressing aides for what he terms “decisive” military options, U.S. officials said, as Iran appears to have tightened its control of the country and targets protesters through a crackdown that has killed thousands. WSJ
• Japanese bonds rebounded after Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama called for calm after a rout had pushed super-long yields to record highs. BBG
• Germany has joined France in saying it will ask the Commission to explore unleashing the Anti-Coercion Instrument at the emergency EU leaders’ summit in Brussels on Thursday evening if Trump doesn’t walk back his Greenland threats. Politico
• Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi may struggle to calm a bond market jolted by her vow to cut the consumption tax rate. The BOJ could intervene in markets and adjust its taper or conduct buying operations, but the central bank “has a very high bar” for such actions. RTRS
• China is expanding its lead over the US in power generation, adding 7x more new capacity in 2025 to help keep electricity costs down as Beijing seeks to overcome the American lead in AI based on chip performance. Nikkei
• Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said the infrastructure around AI will need trillions of dollars in additional investment over the coming years on a global basis, and the industry will create jobs. BBG
• Inflation in the U.K. rose a little more than expected in December, as BoE policymakers mull when next to cut their key interest rate. Britain’s annual rate of consumer-price inflation was 3.4% in December, up from 3.2% in November in the first increase since July. WSJ
• US natural gas futures jumped more than 22% on a freezing weather outlook. The IEA raised its 2026 oil demand growth forecast for a third month. Oil fell. BBG
• Air Force One carrying US President Trump has turned back to Joint Base Andrews due to a ‘minor electrical issue’ on the aircraft, Axios reported; Trump will board another plane and continue towards Davos.
• The White House releases President Trump’s executive order to restrict Wall Street firms from buying single-family homes.

Trade/Tariffs

• USTR Greer said EU trade agreement focuses on trade rather than national security; however, relationship with EU negotiator remains great. Are in a good spot with China. It is important to talk with Congress on export controls.
• US Treasury Secretary Bessent said there are no US-UK talks scheduled at the moment.
• US Treasury Secretary Bessent speaking at Davos said free trade should be fair trade.
• US President Trump said tariff revenue replacing income tax is an option.
• South Korean President Lee said he is not worried about the current talks on US chip tariffs, could accelerate US inflation.
• USTR Greer and US Treasury Secretary Bessent are highly likely to meet their Chinese counterparts before April, Fox News reported.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

Asia-Pac stocks traded mixed, with initial downside paring back as the session continued. ASX 200 held onto earlier losses, with downside in IT and Financials counteracting the gains seen in miners following the rise in metals. Nikkei 225 continued its recent weakness for a fifth straight session, weighed on by banks and exporters, as worries over Japan’s fiscal sustainability hit Japanese markets. KOSPI chopped throughout the session, as the South Korean market traded on either side of the unchanged mark. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. traded with slight gains, albeit very modestly, but limited with a lack of catalysts

Top Asian News

• New Zealand’s PM Luxon called for the General Election to be held on November 7th.

European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.2%) are mostly trading lower as uncertainty over trade tensions, sparked by developments surrounding Greenland, continues to weigh on sentiment. European sectors are mixed. Leading are Basic Resources (+3.1%), Automobiles & Parts (+0.9%) and Chemicals (+0.9%). Basic Resources is the clear outperformer, supported by stronger metal prices, with gold hitting a fresh all-time high during the APAC session and copper rebounding. Movers in the early morning trade include Burberry (+4.8%) after the Co. announced a strong Q3 trading update.

Top European News

• UK CPI YoY (Dec) Y/Y 3.4% vs. Exp. 3.3% (Prev. 3.2%); All Services 4.5% (prev. 4.4%). ONS. “Inflation ticked up a little in December, driven partly by higher tobacco prices, following recently introduced excise duty increases.”. “Airfares also contributed to the increase with prices rising more than a year ago, likely because of the timing of return flights over the Christmas and New Year period.”. “… partially offset by a fall in rents inflation and lower prices for a range of recreational and cultural purchases.”.

FX

• DXY is essentially flat this morning, with the Dollar attempting to stabilise following selling pressure in the prior session; currently holding within a narrow 98.45 to 98.64 range, sitting below its 100 DMA at 98.69. Focus remains centred on President Trump and his speeches in Davos. The Greenland situation remains tense, with EU leaders pushing back on the recently imposed US tariffs. As it stands, the subject matter of Trump’s speech is unknown, but could touch on a multitude of different factors, including Ukraine/Russia, Greenland, trade/tariffs, Fed independence, defence spending and credit card caps. Trump is pencilled in to speak at 13:30 GMT, but could be subject to change as Trump’s plane to Davos was delayed by around 3 hours.
• G10s broadly are mixed vs the Dollar, with mild outperformance in the Antipodeans (AUD +0.3%, NZD +0.3%), whilst the CHF (-0.3%) lags vs peers. Nothing behind the pressure in the Swiss Franc, but perhaps some paring of the outperformance seen in the prior session as the risk tone attempts to improve today. That aside, SNB’s Schlegel said they could have negative inflation this year, though it is not a problem in the short-term. Elsewhere, attention this week has been on the JPY – which is currently posting very mild gains vs the USD. Stabilisation in the JPY comes as the recent JGB weakness subsided overnight.
• GBP is currently flat vs the USD. Earlier, a mixed inflation report will do little to shift the dial at the BoE in the near-term. Headline topped expectations, but was subject to caveats, whilst the Core Y/Y metrics printed either in line or cooler-than-expected. ING opines that despite the uptick in the headline figure, UK inflation should still fall to 2% in April, and see cuts in both March and June. Cable currently trades within a 1.3414 to 1.3456 range.

Fixed Income

• A firmer start for fixed benchmarks. A move that is largely a rebound from the significant selling pressure seen on Tuesday. Once again, JGBs in focus with overnight commentary helping the benchmark pare yesterday’s downside and is back to the 131.45 region. However, in recent trade global paper dipped off best levels, but lacked a clear driver.
• USTs in the green, posting gains of six ticks at most, but have slipped off best levels in recent trade. The docket for the US is firmly focused on Davos, where President Trump will be speaking. However, due to a flight issue, he is around three hours delayed; the original schedule had him down for 13:30GMT/08:30ET. Hit 111-19 at best, firmer but well within yesterday’s 111-09 to 111-30+ band. Trump aside, today’s docket also turns to the SCOTUS, where arguments in Fed Governor Cook’s case will be heard. Furthermore, we could get an opinion on the tariff matter, though, as usual, this is not known in advance.
• Bunds following suit, as high as 128.25, which marginally took the benchmark above Tuesday’s 128.19 peak, but unsurprisingly still someway shy of the week’s 128.32 opening level. Though the broader complex took a hit, which took Bunds to a session low of 127.94. The German auction thereafter, was mixed, but ultimately spurred little action in the benchmark.
• Gilts gapped higher by 26 ticks before extending to just above the 92.00 mark, hitting a 92.03 peak with gains of 45 ticks at most. Though, as above, this is still shy of Monday’s 92.50 opening mark. A move driven by Gilts catching up to the relative recovery seen in benchmarks overnight. Additionally, impetus may have been derived from the morning’s CPI series as, while the headline was above consensus, that is caveated by fiscal/one-off related impacts, while the Services and Core figures were in-line or cooler-than-expected, depending on the provider. Overall the report will not shift much for the BoE in the near term.
• Japan’s SMFG (8316 JT) plans big JGB purchases after selloff, Bloomberg reported.

Commodities

• Crude curtailed by a pickup in the USD and after the geopolitical remarks re. Ukraine on Tuesday. US Envoy Witkoff, on Tuesday, said that discussions with Russian counterpart Dmitriev were “very positive”. A remark that seemingly sparked a bout of pressure in Crude, causing the benchmarks to drift into the early APAC session before stabilising and then dipping once again to troughs of USD 59.22/bbl and USD 63.61/bbl for WTI and Brent, respectively. Currently, the complex holds around USD 0.60/bbl off those lows, but remains in the red by around USD 0.50/bbl on the session.
• A familiar story for spot gold, at another ATH of USD 4888/oz. The narrative for the yellow metal is much the same as in recent sessions.
• Base peers in the green, 3M LME Copper firmer by over 1%. Action spurred by the stabilisation of the risk tone seen in some regions overnight and amid gains in China, though the region’s strength lacked a specific fundamental driver.
• Chevron (CVX) aims to finalise the sale of its oil assets in Singapore in Q1.
• IEA OMR: raises 2026 average oil demand growth forecast to 930k bpd (prev. forecast 860k bpd). Sees total world oil supply 3.69mln bpd higher than demand in 2026 in monthly report (prev. report 3.84mln bpd). Estimates OPEC+ supply growth at 1.3 mln b/d in 2025. Further decline in global oil supply in December continued to narrow surplus.
• Thai’s Central Bank Chief said they will introduce a daily cap on gold trading at 50mln or 100mln Baht from the 29th of January.
• US Southern Command announced and published footage of its seventh boarding and seizure of a sanctioned crude oil tanker, reportedly the Liberian-flagged, in the Caribbean Sea.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

• A planned announcement of an USD 800bln ‘prosperity plan’ between Ukraine, Europe and the US has been delayed due to Europe’s opposition from President Trump to acquire Greenland, the FT reported citing officials.
• US special envoy Witkoff reports significance progress on Ukraine and Russia in recent weeks. Adds that land deal remains the sticking point. Scheduled to meet Putin on Thursday. On the Middle East: Hamas is receptive to the idea of demilitarisation. Not negotiating with Iran right now but says its hard to tell if Iran is still killing protestors.

Geopolitics: Middle East

• Iran’s Foreign Minister warns Washington that any all-out confrontation with Iran would be fierce and engulf the entire region, Sky News Arabia reported.
• US President Trump said Iran will be “wiped off the face of the Earth” if Iran attempts to carry out an assassination threat against him, NewsNation reported.
• US President Trump is still pressing aides for “decisive” military options on Iran, WSJ reported citing officials.

Geopolitics: Other

• NATO’s Rutte said the allies must defend the Arctic region amid rising Chinese and Russian activity.
• EU’s von der Leyen said the EU is fully prepared to act over Greenland if necessary.
• France and Germany reportedly appear to agree on placing the ACI on the table, though not necessarily activating it, Politico reported citing sources; a shift as Germany is now reportedly willing to at least explore the concept of using the ACI.
• The French Presidency announces it has requested NATO exercise in Greenland and said it is ready to participate.
• US President Trump said having Greenland makes a much more effective golden dome, will probably be able to work something out with Europe at Davos.
• The US is to pull 200 military personnel from NATO and its advisory groups amid escalating EU-US tensions, the FT reported citing sources.
• US Interior Secretary Burgum said that markets have it wrong today about Greenland; the US would build up Greenland in a similar fashion to Alaska if it was owned.
• US reportedly plans to reduce involvement in some NATO advisory groups, WaPo reported.

US Event Calendar

• 7:00 am: United States Jan 16 MBA Mortgage Applications, prior 28.5%
• 10:00 am: United States Oct Construction Spending MoM, est. 0.1%
• 10:00 am: United States Dec Pending Home Sales MoM, est. -0.25%, prior 3.3%

Authored by Thomas Brooke via Remix News,

Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico said the European Union is “not taken completely seriously” by world leaders because of its “suicidal migration policy” and “nonsense climate goals,” after a phone call on Monday with German Federal Chancellor Friedrich Merz.

According to the government’s press office, cited by the TASR news agency, Fico told Merz that he would send an open letter on Tuesday to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and circulate it to all EU prime ministers and heads of state, in which he would express concerns relayed to him following a meeting with U.S. President Trump at the weekend and offer solutions.

“I have proposed several solutions to the Federal Chancellor, and I hope that he will visit Slovakia soon, as he promised. We have something to talk about,” Fico said. He added that several hundred German companies operate in Slovakia and that the Slovak economy is particularly dependent on German economic development because of the high concentration of car production.

Fico said he and Merz discussed the current “serious international situation,” including the escalating transatlantic tensions over the future of Greenland, and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. He told the German chancellor about his conversation over the weekend with U.S. President Donald Trump and U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate in Palm Beach, Florida.

“The U.S. president is clearly pursuing the nation-state interests of the U.S. If the EU had acted this way, we would be in a completely different place than we are now,” Fico said, again arguing that the European Union is not taken seriously on the world stage.

🇺🇸🇪🇺 EPIC phone call between Slovakia’s PM Fico with Germany’s Merz, after Fico met Trump.

PERFECTLY sums up the situation between the U.S. and the EU regarding Greendland

Prime Minister Fico:

– “The President of the United States is clearly pursuing the nation state interests… pic.twitter.com/aXFOa6wcXL

— Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) January 19, 2026

The Slovak government described the Fico-Trump meeting as informal and a sign of respect and trust. The talks covered the war in Ukraine, the European Union, and bilateral relations, and were attended by U.S. and Slovak foreign ministers Marco Rubio and Juraj Blanár.

On Ukraine, Fico said he reiterated his long-held positions to the American president. “All my positions are well-known, and I repeat them in the same wording at every meeting,” he said, declaring “Slovakia’s peaceful position and the opinion that diplomacy and mutual listening must take precedence over military solutions.”

According to Fico, he and Trump shared the view of the European Union as “an institution in deep crisis” in relation to its competitiveness as well as its energy and migration policies. They also discussed an intergovernmental agreement on cooperation in nuclear energy, ceremonially signed in Washington before the Florida meeting. “Both countries are fully aware that solving serious energy challenges is not possible through wind turbines or photovoltaics, but that the basis for the future is the rapid development of nuclear energy,” Fico said.

THE TRIP TO THE UNITED STATES AND TALKS WITH PRESIDENT D. TRUMP WERE SOVEREIGN, CONFIDENT, AND EXCEPTIONALLY IMPORTANT FOR SLOVAKIA FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF ENERGY SECURITY.

I understand that anti-Slovak media and the opposition are being torn apart by envy and hatred. I have… pic.twitter.com/7rjoxPWLIR

— Robert Fico 🇸🇰 (@RobertFicoSVK) January 18, 2026

Fico also said he presented Trump with a Slovak postage stamp depicting a U.S. Marine Corps soldier of Slovak origin, Michal Strank, noting that a photograph of Strank raising the American flag on Iwo Jima in February 1945 later became the model for a major military monument at Arlington National Cemetery.

“The trip to the USA was our next success, as was the case with visits to Russia, China, and many other countries. We make many decisions prematurely… Luck favors the brave, sovereign, and proud. The trip to the USA, from which we are now returning, was a sovereign, self-confident, and useful representation of our homeland,” the prime minister concluded.

Read more here…

Watch President Trump’s address to Davos live here (was due to start at 0830ET – reportedly delayed until 0900ET now):

* * *

President Trump’s trip to the World Economic Forum in Davos was briefly delayed after Air Force One returned to Joint Base Andrews, Maryland, shortly after departure due to a minor electrical issue identified on the 747. Flight crews did not declare an emergency or squawk 7700, indicating the situation was precautionary.

Real-time aircraft tracking platform AirNav Radar showed the flight path of AF1 as it departed Joint Base Andrews for Davos, Switzerland, in the overnight hours. While paralleling the coast of Long Island, pilots appeared to decide to return to Joint Base Andrews due to a “minor electrical issue.”

AF1 landed safely at Andrews around 2300 ET, after about an hour and 20 minutes in the air, according to AirNav Radar.  

Air Force One Returns to Joint Base Andrews After Takeoff Due to Electrical Issue 📰

Air Force One departed Joint Base Andrews for Davos, Switzerland, but returned shortly after takeoff when the crew detected a minor electrical issue. The aircraft turned back off the U.S. East… pic.twitter.com/kNakTeJBul

— AirNav Radar (@AirNavRadar) January 21, 2026

Trump and the delegation traveling with him quickly boarded a Boeing 757, typically used by the Vice President or other cabinet members, and took off around midnight en route to Davos.

Despite the brief travel delay, Trump has arrived in Switzerland. He is expected to address the Davos elites at 0830 ET.

NOW – Trump arrives in Davos, after a “minor electrical issue” caused a delay and plane change en route. pic.twitter.com/0GRUBreMf1

— Disclose.tv (@disclosetv) January 21, 2026

The focus of Trump’s speech is likely on the domestic agenda, particularly housing, according to Goldman’s Delta One desk-head, Rich Privorotsky, who noted that overnight headlines floated executive action aimed at curbing institutional home purchases, though legal scope looks narrow.

Expectations are also building around incremental flexibility in 401k usage as part of a broader affordability push.

Late chatter about tariff rebate checks feels legally doubtful without Congressional backing.

Polling on affordability remains weak, and foreign adventurism…Greenland in particular…has not helped approval ratings.

This speech has been framed as both a reset toward domestic priorities and given the relative outperformance of domestic stocks could be an important catalyst

But, earlier, at the Davos podium, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney delivered a historic rebuke to the U.S. under President Trump, declaring the rules-based order led by America “a pleasant fiction” (reiterating his recent remarks on the shifting world order)

“I will talk today about the breaking of the world order, the end of a pleasant fiction and the beginning of a brutal reality where the geopolitics of the great powers is not subject to any constraint,” said Mr. Carney.

“Every day we’re reminded that we live in an era of great-power rivalry,” he said.

“That the rules-based order is fading. That the strong can do what they can, and the weak must suffer what they must.”

He added, “Let me be direct: We are in the midst of a rupture, not a transition.”

“This bargain no longer works.”

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney delivered a stark warning to the world’s middle powers, describing a rapidly developing world order in which powerful nations abandon diplomatic traditions in pursuit of their interests. https://t.co/RM3oz9dHo6 pic.twitter.com/WJyRZkilKW

— The Washington Post (@washingtonpost) January 21, 2026

In his speech Mr. Carney called on medium-size countries like Canada to band together to offset the power of the United States, China and Russia.

“The middle powers must act together because if we’re not at the table, we’re on the menu,” he said. “Great powers can afford for now to go it alone.”

Carney, who received a standing ovation, spoke not long after Mr. Trump posted an A.I. image on social media that included a map of American flags superimposed over both Canada and the United States.

While the address has been front-run as being about domestic ‘affordability’, we suspect the President will diverge from the teleprompter a little and use this as an excuse to discuss his various recent escapades around the world (and take a shot at Carney and Macron).

JPMorgan may have summed it up best: “We thought the president was going to Davos to talk about housing and credit card affordability. Suddenly now it’s become about Greenland affordability.”

The President is due to speak at 0830ET.

De Beers, the world’s largest diamond mining company, has warned of a prolonged downturn in the gem industry after cutting prices for the first time since 2024. Botswana is the epicenter of De Beers’ diamond production, and declining output alongside falling prices is set to put significant pressure on the southern African nation’s finances.

On Monday, Bloomberg News reported that De Beers cut its diamond prices for the first time in over a year, abandoning efforts to prop up the market amid faltering demand.

A combination of soft Chinese luxury spending, expanding market share for lab-grown stones, and added pressure from US tariffs on India has pressured the world’s largest diamond exporter.

The Diamond Standard Index, a benchmark price measure for investment-grade natural diamonds, has fallen by more than half since peaking in early 2022. The index is now at a record low, with data going back to 2002.

As for Botswana, the Finance Ministry warned that diamond income could fall to 10.3 billion pula ($744 million) in FY2025-26, less than half the historical average of 25.3 billion pula, and that revenues may never fully recover.

“The recovery in mineral revenue is expected to be prolonged,” the Finance Ministry wrote in a report ahead of the annual budget next month. “The shortfall is likely to persist over the medium to long term with a possibility of a non-recovery.”

Bloomberg wasn’t clear about the size of the price discount De Beers offered buyers for diamonds.

The children of Iran’s political and military elite are back in the spotlight for their opulent lifestyles amid reports that they fled the country to party in Turkish nightclubs, even as the regime’s security forces carry out its deadliest crackdown on nationwide protests in years, the New York Post reports.

The phenomenon of Iran’s affluent youth first drew international attention more than a decade ago through the Instagram account @richkidsoftehran (now with approximately 477,000 followers), which features eyebrow-raising posts of luxury cars such, watches, and designer gear.

Among the most infamous “Rich Kids of Iran” is Sasha Sobhani, the son of a former Iranian ambassador to Venezuela, who relocated to Spain in 2019 and has posted videos of his Lamborghini and other vehicles.

Another account belongs to Anashid Hoseini, who is married to the son of Iran’s former ambassador to Denmark and whose Instagram account with over 1.7 million followers regularly displays expensive bling and designer handbags.

 

 

 

 

View this post on Instagram

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

A post shared by Anashid Hoseini (@anashidhoseini)

The New York Post reports:

Amid an enforced internet blackout that allows an oppressive regime to commit “genocide under the cover of digital darkness,” according to one outraged expert, reporters from The Telegraph are said to have observed “rich Iranians” partying at a nightclub in a popular holiday hotspot on the border with Turkey.

And as the Telegraph reports:

The province of Van, in far-eastern Turkey, shares a mountainous border with Iran, making it a popular holiday destination for Iranians looking to party.

Despite the chaos at home – where more than two weeks of protests had been halted by deadly force and a total communications blackout – The Telegraph witnessed elite Iranians gathering to drink, socialise and party in Van city.

Locals said that in recent days, wealthy Iranians – some said to support the Islamic regime – had arrived in Turkey to escape the political instability, fearing the protesters might turn on them as well.

“They left Iran for now because they were worried about staying there. Here, they can feel safe. They have made a lot of money from their businesses in Iran, and then they come here to spend it,” one Iranian said of the partygoers. 

“Imagine if, in your country, thousands of people had been killed. Would you have the heart to go out dancing in a bar?” another Iranian told the outlet. 

The renewed attention on Iran’s showdy elites has come into focus as Iranian authorities have now acknowledged that it’s brutal crackdown on protesters have resulted in significant casualties.

In a public address, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei conceded that “several thousand” Iranians died in the violence, which he unsurprisingly attributed to foreign-backed “rioters” and “terrorists” incited by President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

An unnamed Iranian official cited by Reuters estimated the verified death toll at least 5,000, including roughly 500 security personnel. Independent monitoring groups face challenges due to a near-total internet blackout, but the U.S.-based Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA) has confirmed more than 3,900 deaths, while other activist and medical sources inside Iran have cited figures ranging from 12,000 to 20,000 protester fatalities, according to CBS News.

Trump has repeatedly condemned the crackdown, urging protesters to continue their efforts and stating that “help is on its way.” The president has warned Tehran of “very strong action”—potentially including military measures—should executions of detained protesters proceed or the violence persist. The White House has said that all options remain under consideration, though to the eternal chagrin of warmongers like Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC), recent assessments suggest a possible deescalation.

Will the Telegraph cover ‘rich kids of Israel’ partying it up while bombs drop on Gaza?

Via The Last Refuge,

Germany has a severe electricity shortage and cost problem, and it’s getting worse.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz recently made the admission that shutting down the German nuclear power reactors was a “severe strategic mistake.”

“To have acceptable market prices for energy production again, we would have to permanently subsidize energy prices from the federal budget,” Merz said, adding:

“We can’t do this in the long run.”

“So, we are now undertaking the most expensive energy transition in the entire world,” Merz said with pronounced frustration.

“I know of no other country that makes things so expensive and difficult as Germany.”

Merz’s government aims to solicit bids to build 8 gigawatts of new gas-fired power plants this year with the goal of having them online by 2031.

Another 4 gigawatts of capacity are foreseen for lower-carbon energy sources or gas plants that can switch to hydrogen more quickly.

Merz said on industry power price cuts that “the European Commission will also approve the combination of several options.”

Keep in mind, Germany represents the largest contributing economy in the European Union. 

The German industrial sector is the backbone of the European economic model.

All of these realities paint a very tenuous picture for the economic future in Europe, when combined with a new trade relationship with the USA, increasingly cheap goods dumped into the EU by China and the EU promising to continue spending on the war effort in Ukraine against Russia.

Latvia’s central bank governor, Martins Kazaks, has warned European leaders against downplaying the danger posed by Russia, describing in a fresh interview the European Union is already “at war” with Moscow and must be ready for further escalation, particularly in its financial systems.

This is raising eyebrows at the Kremlin, but many Russian officials might actually agree with this grim assessment: “It’s naive to think that we are not at war” with Russia, Kazaks told the Financial Times.

He cited as examples of an active war situation the ongoing cyberattacks on Europe, alleged acts of sabotage targeting infrastructure in the Baltic Sea, as well as drone violations of Danish and other EU airspace – the latter which has involved plenty of speculation and accusations leveled among EU officials, but no final or clear proof of links to Russia or its intelligence services.

Kazaks acknowledged that as of yet, the conflict connected to Ukraine is not being fought directly on EU soil, but he stressed “we need to be resilient to deal with that.”

In response, Latvia’s central bank has intensified contingency planning in recent years, prioritizing uninterrupted access to cash and digital payments during emergencies and the ability to carry out offline card transactions for essential purchases. On this Kazāks emphasized, “We are in many cases best in the class.”

He further cautioned that an armed conflict involving a eurozone member could trigger “financial stability issues” – but ironically he claimed that more and constant European/NATO support to Kiev would make these risks “marginal”, also as the EU has newly sought to greatly bolster its own defensive capabilities.

This is in line with his own government’s consistently hawkish anti-Moscow stance, along with the other tiny (but loud) Baltic and former Soviet satellite states.

We can say at the very least that Russia-NATO proxy war has been in full swing for quite a while now. As a reminder, the world just reached the following tragic milestone:

Russia’s full-fledged war against Ukraine has already lasted longer than the Soviet fight against Nazi Germany in World War II—as discussed in Steve Gutterman’s RFE/RL. “None of the conditions for a final resolution of the conflict are in place,” Ruth Deyermond of King’s College London told Gutterman for his analysis entitled “Will Russia’s War Against Ukraine End In 2026?” Deyermond believes neither Ukraine nor Russia are “in a position to achieve a conclusive victory on the battlefield” or to collapse under pressure. According to Deyermond, the main obstacle to peace is Moscow’s stance: “Russia… seems to have no interest in an end to the fighting, let alone the war,” she says, while CSIS analyst Mark Cancian argues the Russians’ “stated goals are totally unacceptable” and their intransigence “stems from their belief that they are winning.” At best, a cease-fire or “temporarily frozen conflict” is possible so long as Putin’s presidency remains tied to the war, according to Crisis Group’s Olga Oliker.

But the above doesn’t address the other pressing question: can Ukraine and its dwindling and fatigued armed forces last? While the West believes it is weakening Russia, there is little doubt that Ukraine is being fast drained and weakened to the brink of collapse. It is being propped up by the Western powers, financially, militarily, and really on almost every level.

For example, on the pressing issue of the country’s collapsing power infrastructure, regional media warns amid rolling blackouts, power outages could begin to last over 16 hours a day under newly proposed emergency schedules. The country can’t get parts fast enough to replace damaged substations, and this is an area where no amount of external support can keep up, ultimately.