Trump is expected to appear at Tuesday’s White House press briefing to mark the one-year anniversary of the start of his second term.

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt teased the surprise in a post on X, saying, “A very special guest will be joining me at the podium today…. TUNE IN.”

The rare appearance at the briefing podium comes as the president faces extraordinary pushback from America’s European allies over his planned tariffs over Greenland, tensions he’ll face in person this week at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.

Watch the full briefing here… “Brace!”

Authored by Daniel Lacalle, 

Most of the recent reports about the potential opportunity in Greenland and Venezuela focus on the large capital expenditure required, technical challenges, and legal security risks. However, markets may exaggerate the risks and underestimate the potential.

It is interesting to read that the United States should not invest in Venezuela and Greenland because they are high-risk, low-potential areas, but the same analysts find no problem in China and Russia developing those resources.

The oil market will likely lose most of its geopolitical risk premium with Venezuela’s transition to a transparent democracy and a possible regime change in Iran. Adding the development of Greenland may have the same effect that the shale revolution had. The potential of lower gas prices and tech disinflation, higher investment, and more transparent price formation is significant.

The world does not have resource scarcity. It has legal and regulatory excess. In fact, most of the limitations in Greenland and Venezuela are legal and regulatory, more than technical, even if the technical aspect may include some challenges. Deregulation and a transparent legal framework are key to unlocking the enormous potential.

Greenland is undeniably a high-return mining opportunity. The Malmbjerg Molybdenum project offers an estimated 33.8% IRR with $1.17 billion Net Present Value on $820 million capital expenditure. All the feasibility studies have been completed, the permitting is done, and it is just a question of taking the decision to act. The Tanbreez rare earth project offers an exceptional 180% estimated IRR with around $3 billion NPV on just $290 million capex. Similar economics can be found in its graphite & gold resources. Manageable capital expenditure and a return on invested capital that comfortably exceeds the weighted average cost of capital with rapid payback periods.

In oil and gas, the Greenland opportunity finds more legal and regulatory resistance, but the returns may be significantly higher. Greenland holds very large but still unproven oil and gas resources, with technically attractive volumes but slightly more challenging economics due to government policy.

A USGS Circum‑Arctic assessment estimates mean undiscovered conventional resources in the East Greenland Rift Basins at about 31.4 billion barrels of oil equivalent (oil, gas, and natural gas liquids). The Greenland government mentions a separate West Greenland/Baffin Bay assessment with a mean resource of more than 18 billion barrels of oil equivalent. Independent basin studies for onshore Jameson Land suggest around 4 billion barrels of unrisked recoverable oil, with about 1.2 billion barrels targeted by the first two planned wells. Onshore blocks are less expensive and logistically safer than deep‑offshore Arctic projects. Analysts highlight that even a significant discovery would likely carry high break-even prices due to Arctic logistics, absence of infrastructure, export‑terminal requirements and harsh operating conditions. Different independent analyses show breakeven oil prices at $75/bbl and IRRs of 13%. However, the inflated cost estimates come mostly from the estimates of small independent exploration companies, not from more efficient and cost-effective majors.

The problem in Greenland is not navigating the technical challenges and reducing costs but government interventionism. In 2021, the government stopped issuing new oil and gas exploration licenses, citing climate-related reasons. This limits the potential, as there is little option of improving costs via economies of scale and major player involvement. Many other areas with technical challenges have proven to be economically viable at $60 a barrel with a better combination of cost structures and engineering economies of scale.

​Greenland suffers a policy paradox. Legal licenses exist, but an overtly anti‑oil stance and strong so-called environmental scrutiny have made investor confidence The challenges posed by Arctic logistics and infrastructure limitations primarily stem from the difficulty of installing large-scale operations, which discourages oil companies from making productive investments. cost-efficient systems. Litigation, regulatory animosity, political opposition, and permitting delays are the main problems. Greenland’s undeniable oil and gas opportunity can be unlocked with a solid program of environmentally respectful and technically efficient investments where major players can leverage economies of scale and find the technical solutions to reduce costs.

Analysts’ estimates of high costs in Greenland are made with a static view of the industry, which has proven to be able to slash expenses and boost productivity numerous times in equally challenging areas.

The case in Venezuela is also very attractive and only limited by legal and political insecurity.

Venezuela’s oil production has plummeted from 3.5 million barrels per day to less than a million due to the dictatorship’s plundering of PDVSA, the national oil company, and abandoning productive investment. The Maduro regime weaponized PDVSA to make it a cash machine for its political spending, financing of dictatorships, and making the leaders of the regime rich.

A speedy recovery of 500 thousand barrels per day is relatively easy and would require Chevron’s four joint ventures to currently produce around 200 kb/d, which accounts for about 22–25% of total Venezuelan output, and this figure could increase by 50% in less than a year and a half by simply leveraging existing resources. Productive capacity of existing fields would require the intervention of the main service providers to solve the leaks and revamp the technically outdated infrastructure.

Adding one million barrels per day to the country’s output would require a maximum of $70 billion of capital expenditure. However, restoring to 2018 levels only needs $20 billion. In fact, once legal, regulatory, and safety hurdles are lifted, companies may find that the cost is substantially lower.

Many existing projects in Venezuela could raise production and improve project‑level IRRs once political risk, legal limitations, and contracts normalize. Petropiar, in the Orinoco Belt, is currently at 50% of capacity because the upgrader did not have major maintenance in six years as the government corruption and interventionism soared. With full maintenance and recovery, production can double from current levels. The Petroboscán project in Lake Maracaibo can easily increase production by 40% through workovers and incremental recovery technology.

In Venezuela’s main projects, infrastructure and wells already exist. Therefore, adding incremental production from infill drilling, artificial lift, and maintenance is relatively fast with low additional costs, which could double IRRs rapidly.

Chevron’s four joint ventures currently produce around 200 kb/d, about 22–25% of total Venezuelan output, and this figure could increase by 50% in less than a year and a half “just leveraging what’s on the ground,” which means high‑return, short‑cycle investments in maintenance and debottlenecking, according to the company.

The Junín and Carabobo projects are older development plans (Junín 2, 4, 5, 6 and Carabobo 1–3) that can produce between 200 and 450 kb/d for each block, but progress has stalled due to corruption, insecurity, and the country’s financial problems.

A 2025 Energy Analytics Institute (EAI) report estimates that six major heavy-oil projects would need about $47.4 billion in investment and could increase production capacity by around 2.1 million b/d, showing the large amount of production that could be restarted if conditions become safe, clear, and appealing. Venezuela currently has four upgrading units, but only one (at Petropiar) is operational. Therefore, the implementation of new or restored upgraders is crucial for rapidly increasing Orinoco crude production.

The most attractive return and the best way to recover the economy of Venezuela come from rehabilitating existing joint ventures and partially built Orinoco projects, where sunk infrastructure plus large in‑place reserves combine to provide small incremental capex and large production increases, according to the EAI report.

The recovery of Venezuela’s oil industry can generate significant benefits for the nation and its citizens once a transparent system of ownership, royalties, and legal framework is implemented. Venezuela will, therefore, need to implement a system like what Milei has created for Argentina, the RIGI framework, designed to provide legal and investor security for large-scale international investments. The Venezuela investment opportunity must be syndicated and implemented through consortiums to accelerate the capital deployment and maximize the output improvement.

The Venezuela opportunity for the world is enormous. It has the world’s largest crude reserves, and a new government that guarantees international arbitration, transparent and solid contracts and a hydrocarbon law reform can also create tens of thousands of jobs directly and indirectly, strengthening the domestic supply chains, bringing back the more than 18 thousand technical experts the Maduro regime dismissed, and restoring PDVSA’s management and workforce to incorporate credible professionals instead of political figures.

The Venezuela opportunity offers an average 20% IRR at current oil prices once the initial restoration phase is completed. Decades of underinvestment and political dysfunction can be solved rapidly with decisive actions and technical skill. In five years, Venezuela can double current production levels and lead to an economic recovery that requires restoring private property security and eliminates the dictatorship’s parallel administrations and opaque agreements.

A more stable post‑Maduro setting can give results quickly and start a multi-year process of unlocking investment and recovering production. A Breakwave Advisors special report shows that a recognized government and market reintegration can allow production to trend back toward historic peaks (around 3.5 mbpd). Wood Mackenzie highlights that with regulatory clarity and access to capital, Venezuelan supply could become a significant medium‑term growth source for refiners configured to heavy crude. An Energy Policy Research Foundation (EPRINC) technical report says that, with “proper investment,” Venezuela could sustain roughly 2.5 mbpd over 20–30 years, highlighting scope for production growth using horizontal wells, artificial lift, and other secondary recovery technologies.

In Venezuela, less than $10B dedicated to productivity technologies in specific heavy‑oil projects could double recovery factors over a 5-year period, showing +20% IRR project‑level economics relative to reserves in place.

Can it be done quickly? An Atlantic Council study highlights that licensing and contract reforms letting existing operators expand, plus new and transparent participation contracts, could add 500–600 thousand barrels per day in 12–18 months.​

The only reason why analysts see the current challenges as insurmountable is because it seems difficult to believe that the legal and investor security framework will change drastically to an investment-friendly and transparent system.

What Greenland and Venezuela show is that the enormous resource and development opportunities may have technical challenges, but those are easily solvable once the legal and regulatory framework changes from a corrupt and unstable system, in Venezuela, or an interventionist one, like Greenland, to a political and regulatory system focused on facilitating investment and looking for solutions, not creating problems.

Once politics stop interfering, investment will thrive. If you want respect for the environment, economic development, and sustainability, you should trust engineers, not politicians.

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times,

The Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) is investigating the city of Minneapolis’s “comprehensive racialized housing plans,” the department said in a statement on Jan. 16.

HUD’s Office for Fair Housing and Equal Opportunity (FHEO) notified the city of the investigation and stated its belief that the city’s race-based housing programs violate the Fair Housing Act and Title VI of the Civil Rights Act of 1964.

In a Jan. 15 letter to Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey, FHEO Assistant Secretary Craig W. Trainor said the Fair Housing Act makes it illegal to discriminate against any person on the basis of race or national origin in the sale or rental of a dwelling. Title VI bans racial or national origin discrimination in any program that receives federal funding.

The letter alleged an increase in racial and ethnic favoritism within the Minnesota government, calling it “alarming.”

Trainor cited fraud committed by Somali citizens in the state that he said cost U.S. taxpayers at least $9 billion. Trainor accused Gov. Tim Walz’s administration of allowing the fraud to flourish and of trying to politically align with the Somali community, primarily for election favoritism.

“This racial favoritism appears to extend to Minneapolis’s housing policy,“ the letter reads.

”Specifically, Minneapolis has committed to making available and allocating housing resources based on race and nationality.”

The letter cited the “Minneapolis 2040” plan issued by the city, which aims to prioritize housing resources to “cultural districts,” which are defined in the plan as areas rooted in “communities significantly populated by people of color, Indigenous people, and/or immigrants.”

The plan promises to expand programs that support existing homeowners in affording and maintaining their homes, with a “focus on people of color, indigenous people.” It vowed to use “racial equity goals” as one criterion when examining various state programs and services.

The city’s Community Planning and Economic Development department also intends to prioritize rental housing to black people, indigenous people, people of color, and immigrant groups by leveraging its rental licensing authority, the letter reads.

“As a result of Minneapolis’s racialized housing policy, I have directed the Office of Special Investigations to investigate Minneapolis,” Trainor wrote.

“If FHEO finds reasonable cause to believe Minneapolis has or intends to violate the civil rights of its citizens, we will file charges of discrimination or refer the matter to the United States Department of Justice for further enforcement.”

President-elect Donald Trump’s nominee for Secretary of the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Eric Scott Turner, testifies before the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs on Capitol Hill in Washington on Jan. 16, 2025. Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times

HUD Secretary Scott Turner called Minnesota ground zero for fraud and corruption, accusing the state of choosing to ignore the law and instead serving a “cynical political agenda.”

These alleged actions undermine American values and the commitment to equal treatment under the law for all citizens, he said.

“In Minnesota, @HUDgov has uncovered up to $84 million in ineligible assistance during Biden’s final year—including $496,000 in improper assistance to 509 dead tenants,” Turner said in a Jan. 13 post on X.

The Epoch Times reached out to Walz and Frey for comment and did not receive a response.

Minnesota Operations, Fraud

Both Walz and Frey have been highly critical of the Trump administration’s immigration enforcement actions in the state.

In a Jan. 15 statement, Walz accused Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents of “pulling over people indiscriminately, including U.S. citizens, and demanding to see their papers.”

On Jan. 17, Walz’s office dismissed reports that the governor was being investigated by the Department of Justice.

“Weaponizing the justice system and threatening political opponents is a dangerous, authoritarian tactic,” he said.

Meanwhile, in a Jan. 7 statement, Frey asked Immigration and Customs Enforcement to leave Minneapolis and the state “immediately.”

“We stand by our immigrant and refugee communities—know that you have our full support,” he said.

Multiple federal agencies are probing Minnesota for the fraudulent use of federal funds.

Last month, a federal prosecutor suggested that more than 50 percent of the approximately $18 billion in federal funds assigned to the state since 2018 may have been stolen.

The funds were channeled into 14 state programs, including housing, autism, and child nutrition services run by Somalis.

Since 2022, almost 100 people have been charged in various Minnesota fraud schemes, and most of them are of Somali descent.

US natural gas futures surged for a second straight session as an Arctic cold blast and mounting winter storm threats forced traders to reassess energy demand, with heating demand across much of the eastern US now forecast to surge sharply.

As of 09:00 ET, NatGas futures are up nearly 27%, marking the largest intraday jump since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in late January 2022. The move comes as weather models flipped sharply colder, now forecasting a massive deep freeze across the eastern half of the country through the end of the month.

NatGas prices are set to reclaim the $4 per mmbtu level.

Average temperatures across Washington, DC, are plunging and could average around 10°F by the weekend. This cold blast is far more extreme than the one in the first half of December. Notably, this period typically coincides with the most intense part of winter.

The cold blast has sent the heating demand forecast for the next two weeks through the roof.

More details on the cold blast:

• A colder outlook indicates a higher heating demand that would erase the modest storage surplus seen earlier this month.

• Hedge funds had increased bearish bets last week, leaving the market vulnerable to a short-covering rally once forecasts changed.

• Forecasters at Atmospheric G2 said earlier that weather models underestimated both the intensity and the geographic reach of the Arctic cold.

• Commodity Weather Group expects average temperatures around 8°F below normal across much of the Midwest, Mid-Atlantic, and parts of southern New England through this weekend.

• The US Weather Prediction Center warned two dozen weather stations could break or tie daily temperature records through Jan. 26.

Among meteorologists on X, discussion has abruptly shifted toward what could become a historic winter storm stretching from Texas to the Mid-Atlantic, beginning Friday. Weather observer Ryan Hall detailed this winter threat in a report Monday titled “This Could Be The Big One.”

Here’s what meteorologists are saying:

On Sunday morning, snow and ice is forecast to stretch 2,000 miles from the Southwest to the East Coast.

Around 160 million people are forecast to experience wintry precipitation simultaneously!

Here’s a sampling of possible precipitation types in some cities early Sunday:… pic.twitter.com/L0scgoZJv7

— Ben Noll (@BenNollWeather) January 20, 2026

Odds are increasing for a particularly memorable winter storm late this week into the weekend… pic.twitter.com/fopHLEj40G

— Ryan Hall, Y’all (@ryanhallyall) January 20, 2026

⚠️A potentially historic winter storm is gearing up for weekend impact across a large portion of the country.

I’ll be live with in-depth analysis to Clarity clients at 7am est.

To access our platform and our client lives you can by signing up now: https://t.co/5NjlJjOeSS pic.twitter.com/5xkF0JvQFf

— BAM Weather (@bam_weather) January 20, 2026

All eyes are on the Mid-Atlantic late this week as winter storm threats rise.  

Authored by Travis Gillmore and Cathy He via The Epoch Times,

President Donald Trump used his first year back in the White House to set the tone for his second presidency, changing the nation and the world in the process.

Through more than 225 executive orders, the president reorganized federal government policy and focus, while advancing his America First agenda.

On the world stage, Trump reset global trade policy, brokered peace deals, and used the U.S. military in several defining moments.

Here are 30 ways the Trump administration has transformed the country and beyond.

1. One Big Beautiful Bill Act

In July 2025, Congress passed Trump’s signature domestic policy legislation—the One Big Beautiful Bill Act—that implemented sweeping changes to tax and social policies over the next 10 years.

The legislation included making Trump’s 2017 tax cuts permanent; tax breaks on tips, overtime, and Social Security income; completing the border wall, adding $150 billion in defense spending, and imposing work requirements for Medicaid.

Other elements allow for accelerated depreciation deductions meant to incentivize business development and tax exemptions for interest paid on American-made vehicles.

President Donald Trump arrives to speak on his policy to end tax on tips in Las Vegas on Jan. 25, 2025. Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty Images

2. Curbing Illegal Immigration

After the president enacted strict border security policies, including invoking the Illegal Alien Enemies Act of 1798, illegal immigration plummeted to the lowest numbers ever recorded.

Zero illegal immigrants were released by authorities for eight straight months, starting in May 2025, and more than 2.5 million illegal immigrants living in the United States were deported, according to the Department of Homeland Security.

Administration officials prioritized the removal of known gang members and violent criminals, while nearly 2 million illegal immigrants chose to self deport, some using Customs and Border Protection’s Home app.

Efforts to secure the border included hiring thousands of Immigration and Customs Enforcement and Border Patrol agents, ending catch and release policies, and expanding detention capacity.

Trump said deportations of illegal immigrants will benefit Americans by lowering crime and reducing competition for jobs and housing.

A U.S. Border Patrol agent from the Big Bend Sector takes part in a binational patrol called “Operation Mirror” with Mexican Army personnel to deter migrant crossings from Ojinaga, Mexico, to Presidio, Texas, on Nov. 4, 2025. Herika Martinez/AFP via Getty Images

3. Expanded Travel Bans

Trump cited national security concerns when he fully restricted travel from 12 countries last year—including Afghanistan, Iran, and Somalia—then expanded the directive in December 2025 to include five more nations. Nineteen countries are also subject to partial restrictions.

Beginning Jan. 21, the State Department will halt immigrant visa processing for nationals from 75 countries. The move stems from concerns that those nationals would require welfare or public benefits in the United States.

Soldiers of the Somalia National Army walk near the frontlines at Sabiid, one of the towns they have liberated from the Al-Qaeda-linked terrorists, Al-Shabaab, in Somalia’s lower-Shabelle region on Nov. 11, 2025. Tony Karumba/AFP via Getty Images

4. Birthright Citizenship

One of the first executive orders signed in Trump’s second term challenged traditional interpretations of the 14th Amendment by ending birthright citizenship for those born to illegal immigrants or individuals in the country on temporary visas.

States and groups filed lawsuits against the administration, and lower courts ruled to block the president’s order. A challenge to the blocks reached the Supreme Court, prompting a landmark decision restricting courts’ use of nationwide injunctions.

The high court has not yet ruled on the constitutionality of birthright citizenship.

The entrance to the U.S. Citizen and Immigration Services location where a New York City Council data analyst of Venezuelan origin was detained by Immigration and Customs Enforcement while making an immigration appointment, in the Long Island town of Bethpage, N.Y., on Jan. 14, 2026. Shannon Stapleton/Reuters

5. Visa Changes

The administration increased fees for H-1B visas for skilled foreign workers to $100,000, expressing hope that this would incentivize businesses to hire American workers.

A newly introduced Trump Gold Card, available for purchase for $1 million for individuals and $2 million for businesses, will expedite residency processing for qualified applicants who pass background screenings.

The administration also suspended the green card lottery program in the wake of the Brown University shooting in December 2025. The diversity visa lottery awarded approximately 50,000 green cards each year to people from countries with limited representation in the United States.

A Trump Gold Card is displayed in the Oval Office as President Donald Trump speaks before signing executive orders on Sept. 19, 2025. Trump signed an order creating the Trump Gold Card expedited residency progam for a fee of $1 million for individuals and $2 million for sponsorships by corporations. Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty Images

6. National Guard Deployments

The president first deployed the National Guard in Los Angeles to quell riots that erupted in June 2025 after protests targeted Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents.

Trump then sent troops to Washington to help combat high rates of violent crime in the capital. Subsequent deployments sent National Guard members to Portland, Chicago, and Memphis.

Democratic leaders challenged the deployments, and the Supreme Court in December 2025 ruled on a preliminary basis that the administration could not deploy National Guard troops to Chicago to protect federal immigration agents. Trump later withdrew guardsmen from Chicago, Portland, and Los Angeles.

National Guard members patrol the National Mall in Washington on Aug. 27, 2025. Madalina Kilroy/The Epoch Times

7. DOGE

On the first day of his second term, Trump established the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) to investigate and eliminate waste, fraud, and abuse in the federal government..

Initially led by Elon Musk, the department cites $215 billion in taxpayer savings on its website, derived from contract cancellations, lease terminations, the elimination of duplicate payments, and halting fraudulent activities.

Agencies most impacted by DOGE include the Department of Health and Human Services, the General Services Administration, and the Social Security Administration.

Efforts also included the large-scale layoff of federal workers, totaling about 317,000, of which approximately 92 percent left voluntarily after taking up buyout offers, according to the Office of Personnel Management.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk receives a key from President Donald Trump in the Oval Office on May 30, 2025. Musk served as an adviser to Trump and led the Department of Government Efficiency. Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images

8. Jan. 6 Pardons

On Day One, Trump pardoned nearly 1,600 people charged with various crimes for participating in protests and riots at the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021.

He also commuted the sentences of 14 incarcerated individuals rather than granting full, unconditional pardons, thus leaving criminal convictions in place for some charged with seditious conspiracy—including Oath Keepers founder Stewart Rhodes and Proud Boys members Ethan Nordean, Joseph Biggs, and others.

People gather outside the DC Central Detention Facility, after President Donald Trump pardoned nearly 1,600 Jan. 6 defendants, in Washington on Jan. 20, 2025. Samira Bouaou/The Epoch Times

9. Pulling US Out of Climate Pacts

Trump initiated the United States’ withdrawal from the Paris Climate Accords for a second time on Jan. 20, 2025. In January 2026, the United States pulled out of the global benchmark climate treaty, the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change, and withdrew from the Green Climate Fund, which finances much of the U.N.’s climate initiatives.

Domestically, the administration has moved to overhaul climate-related regulations, including rescinding electric vehicle mandates, halting offshore wind projects, and revoking a climate finding that would pave the way for expansive deregulation.

The COP30 logo is seen in front of the central building ahead of the COP30 Brazil Amazonia 2025 in Belem, Brazil, on Nov. 3, 2025. The Conference of the Parties (COP) meets annually to discuss and negotiate on climate-related issues. Wagner Meier/Getty Images

10. Eliminating DEI

Federal guidelines pertaining to diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) were eliminated on Trump’s first day in office. The change terminated training programs and requirements, along with positions related to DEI, and reprioritized merit-based hiring practices.

The administration, citing civil rights law, has also sought to ban DEI in universities and public schools that receive federal funding.

The moves were made amid a broader backdrop of corporations—including Amazon, McDonald’s, and Meta—rolling back their DEI policies.

President Donald Trump, joined by golf legend Tiger Woods, speaks during a reception honoring Black History Month in the East Room of the White House on Feb. 20, 2025. The Black History Month celebration comes as Trump has signed a series of executive orders ending federal diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) programs and cutting funding to schools and universities that do not cut DEI programs. Win McNamee/Getty Images

11. Dismantling Education Department

Trump is pushing Congress to eliminate the Education Department, with Secretary Linda McMahon leading the charge to phase it out. More than half of the department staff has been laid off, and many functions are being transferred to other departments.

The administration wants states to oversee administrative functions for their own education systems.

The Department of Education building in Washington on July 6, 2023. Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times

12. Probing Universities

The federal government has withheld billions of dollars in funding from colleges and universities with recent histories of alleged civil rights violations and disruptive or violent pro-Palestinian protests, prompting legal challenges.

Settlements were reached with Brown, Columbia, Cornell, and others. Columbia agreed to pay a $200 million fine plus $21 million to Jewish employees harassed by co-workers and students.

The administration is currently locked in a legal battle with Harvard, with billions in federal funds frozen.

Harvard University in Cambridge, Mass., on July 4, 2025. Learner Liu/The Epoch Times

13. MAHA Agenda

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s appointment as secretary of Health and Human Services prompted a reimagining of the federal government’s approach to managing food and medicine.

Under the Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) initiative, Kennedy called on states to remove junk food from food stamp programs. Eighteen states have moved to do so.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture recently released a new inverted food pyramid that prioritizes healthy fats, proteins, fruits, and vegetables.

“The new guidelines recognize that whole, nutrient-dense food is the most effective path to better health and lower health care costs,” Kennedy said while unveiling the new guidelines.

Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Secretary of Agriculture Brooke L. Rollins hold up ice cream cones during a press conference on the steps of the U.S. Department of Agriculture in Washington on July 14, 2025. Kennedy held a press conference along with Rollins, and others, as they announced that ice cream makers who are responsible for 90 percent of the nation’s ice cream and frozen dairy desserts are pledging to eliminate many artificial food dyes by the end of 2027. Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images

14. Lowering Drug Prices

The administration balanced the threat of tariffs on imported medications and ingredients with financial incentives to change the longstanding practice of major pharmaceutical companies of charging U.S. customers 400 percent or more for brand-name medications than they charge overseas customers.

More than a dozen pharmaceutical companies have entered into Most Favored Nation agreements with the United States so far, and Trump has asked Congress to codify this pricing policy into law.

Among the price reductions included in these agreements are Amgen’s cholesterol lowering drug Repatha from $573 to $239; HIV medication Reyataz, by Bristol Myers Squibb, from $1,449 to $217; and Hepatitis C medication Epclusa, by Gilead Sciences, from $24,920 to $2,425.

Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. speaks next to charts displaying drug prices at an event in which President Donald Trump delivered remarks on lowering drug prices in the Oval Office on Nov. 6, 2025. Trump announced that his administration has reached agreements with drugmakers Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk that would lower the price of some GLP-1 weight loss medications. Andrew Harnik/Getty Images

15. Gender Clarification

On his first day in office, Trump defined the federal government’s position on gender with an executive order declaring that the United States recognizes “two sexes, male and female.”

“These sexes are not changeable and are grounded in fundamental and incontrovertible reality,” the order reads.

Trump later barred federal funding from schools and institutions that allow men to compete in women’s sports.

The University of Pennsylvania, which was sanctioned for allowing a male to compete on the women’s swim team, agreed to strip that athlete, Lia Thomas, of all awards, including his 2022 NCAA national championship, and send a letter of apology to all female swimmers who competed against him.

Health officials in December 2025 moved to cut federal funding for hospitals that perform transgender procedures for minors.

In the wake of Trump’s policies, more than 20 medical clinics that offered gender transition procedures have paused or halted the treatments.

President Donald Trump joined by women athletes signs the “No Men in Women’s Sports” executive order in the East Room at the White House on Feb. 5, 2025. The executive order, which Trump signed on National Girls and Women in Sports Day, prohibits males who identify as transgender women from competing in women’s sports. Andrew Harnik/Getty Images

16. Redistricting Push

Trump’s push for Texas to redraw its congressional maps precipitated a nationwide effort to redistrict for partisan gain.

After Texas adopted new maps aimed at giving Republicans five extra House seats, California responded with a voter-approved ballot measure that redraws districts to favor Democrats in five seats.

Missouri, Ohio, and North Carolina redrew maps in favor of Republicans, while Utah helped Democrats. Other states, including Florida, are in the process of redistricting or are considering redistricting options.

Texas state Rep. Matt Morgan holds a map of the new proposed congressional districts in Texas, during a legislative session as Democratic lawmakers, who left the state to deny Republicans the opportunity to redraw the state’s 38 congressional districts, begin returning to the Texas State Capitol in Austin on Aug. 20, 2025. Sergio Flores/Reuters

17. Eyeing Greenland

Trump upped the ante on his bid to acquire Greenland for national security purposes in January, prompting Danish and Greenlandic foreign ministers to meet with Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio at the White House on Jan. 14.

The White House has said purchasing the island is under consideration, along with other options, including military force.

Denmark, Greenland, and European leaders have pushed back on Trump’s comments. The president has reiterated that the island is critical for the United States’ security.

“There’s not a thing that Denmark can do about it if Russia or China wants to occupy Greenland, but there’s everything we can do,” Trump said on Jan. 14.

Danish Foreign Minister Lars Loekke Rasmussen and Greenlandic Foreign Minister Vivian Motzfeldt speak to the press after a meeting with lawmakers on Capitol Hill in Washington on Jan. 14, 2025. Madalina Kilroy/The Epoch Times

18. Resolved Global Conflicts

Trump threatened tariffs and applied economic pressure to help negotiate resolutions to eight conflicts around the world, some of which had been ongoing for decades.

Brokered cease-fires include those between the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Rwanda, as well as Thailand and Cambodia.

The president prioritized diplomatic solutions while wielding tariffs as a negotiating tool, emphasizing outcomes based on development and financial opportunities.

(Left) U.S. President Donald Trump (C) hosts the signing ceremony of a peace deal with the President of Rwanda Paul Kagame (L) and the President of the Democratic Republic of the Congo Felix Tshisekedi (R) at the United States Institute of Peace in Washington on Dec. 4, 2025. (Right) Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim (L) and U.S. President Donald Trump (R) watch as Thailand’s Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul (2nd L) and Cambodia’s Prime Minister Hun Manet (2nd R) hold up a document after the ceremonial signing of a cease-fire agreement between Thailand and Cambodia on the sidelines of the ASEAN Summit in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, on Oct. 26, 2025. Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/AFP via Getty Images, Mohd Rasfan/Pool/AFP via Getty Images

19.  Ending Israel–Hamas Conflict

Trump oversaw a landmark peace treaty between Israel and Hamas, known as the 20-point Peace Plan, which resulted in the release of all Hamas-held hostages, living and deceased.

Trump called the moment the “historic dawn of a new Middle East,” celebrating an opportunity to pave a path toward peace in a region engulfed in struggles that date back millennia.

Egypt awarded Trump its highest honor, the “Order of the Nile,” and Israel made him the first non-citizen to ever receive its Israel Prize for his peacekeeping efforts.

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi and U.S. President Donald Trump sign a Gaza cease-fire agreement in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt, on Oct. 13, 2025. Trump is in Egypt to meet with European and Middle Eastern leaders in what’s being billed as an international peace summit, following the start of a US-brokered cease-fire deal to end the war in the Gaza Strip. Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

20. Shifted Ukraine Policy

Trump ramped up pressure on Ukraine and Russia to bring the fighting to an end, suggesting Ukraine will have to cede territory it already lost in the war.

The Trump administration halted the Biden-era policy of free aid to Ukraine and negotiated arms sales instead.

Trump repeatedly expressed disappointment with Zelenskyy and Russian President Vladimir Putin for failing to work towards a peaceful resolution, though he said talks are ongoing and productive.

U.S. President Donald Trump speaks alongside Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy during a press conference following their meeting at Mar-a-Lago in Palm Beach, Fla., on Dec. 28, 2025. Trump invited Zelenskyy to work on the U.S.-proposed peace plan to end the Russia–Ukraine war. Joe Raedle/Getty Images

21. Iran Strikes

Ten days into the Israel–Iran conflict in June 2025, Trump flexed America’s military might during a top-secret operation known as Midnight Hammer that destroyed Iran’s nuclear facilities.

The Fordow fuel enrichment plant—buried deep underground—was targeted along with two other plants by a fleet of B-2 bombers dropping 14 bunker buster bombs, and a barrage of Tomahawk missiles fired from submarines.

Two days later, the conflict ended in a cease-fire.

Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Air Force Gen. Dan Caine discusses the mission details of a targeted strike on Iran during a news conference at the Pentagon in Arlington, Va., on June 22, 2025. President Donald Trump addressed the nation last night after three Iranian nuclear facilities were struck by the U.S. military. Andrew Harnik/Getty Images

22. Backing Iranian Protesters

Iran’s violent clampdown on people protesting the Islamic regime drew criticism from the president.

Trump repeatedly voiced his support for the protesters, telling them to “take over the institutions” in a Truth Social post and promising them that “help is on the way.”

Human rights groups reported that more than 2,200 people were killed by Iranian officials since the protests began.

The president, on Jan. 16, said that the regime’s decision not to go ahead with scheduled executions of protesters impacted his decision not to strike Iran.

People gather during a protest in Tehran, Iran, on Jan. 8, 2026. Demonstrations have been ongoing since December 2025, triggered by soaring inflation and the collapse of the rial, and have expanded into broader demands for political change. Anonymous/Getty Images

23. Maduro Capture

In what may be a legacy-defining foreign policy action, Trump ordered the audacious military operation to capture Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro and his wife from their fortified compound in Caracas on Jan. 3.

The two were brought back to the United States and indicted in a New York federal court on several charges, including narco-terrorism conspiracy. Both pleaded not guilty

Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that prior to his capture, Maduro was given multiple opportunities to avoid the outcome.

In December 2025, the United States designated the Cartel de Los Soles as a foreign terrorist organization, with Maduro as its head. The Cartel de Los Soles is the umbrella term used to describe Venezuelan regime officials involved in drug trafficking.

Rubio said on Jan. 7 that the United States has a three-phase plan for Venezuela: stabilization, recovery, and transition.

Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores (rear), are escorted by federal agents after landing at a Manhattan helipad, as they make their way into an armored car en route to a federal courthouse in New York City on Jan. 5, 2026. XNY/Star Max/GC Images

24.  Drug Boat Strikes

Since September 2025, the U.S. military has targeted narcotics trafficking operations by striking boats smuggling drugs out of Venezuela. The United States has also amassed an unprecedented armada in the Caribbean Sea.

The first known land strike was conducted on a facility used to load illicit shipments in December last year.

Since December, U.S. forces have seized oil tankers attempting to evade sanctions by turning off their transponders and flying false flags to avoid detection.

(Left) A vessel used for drug smuggling burns after the U.S. military struck it in the Eastern Pacific, in this screengrab taken from a handout video released Dec. 18, 2025. (Center) A still taken from footage of a boat strike targeting drug trafficking in the Eastern Pacific on Dec. 4, 2025. (Right) A still taken from footage of a strike on a drug boat in the Caribbean on Nov. 6, 2025. U.S. Southern Command/Handout via Reuters, @Southcom/X, @SecWar/X

25. Focus on Latin America

Trump resurrected and redefined the 19th-century Monroe Doctrine as the “Donroe Doctrine,” establishing U.S. strategic dominance in the Western hemisphere. The strategy culminated in drug boat strikes and U.S. forces deposing Maduro in the latter half of Trump’s first year, but the region was a key focus of the administration early on.

In early 2025, the president launched a pressure campaign threatening to retake control of the Panama Canal if Chinese influence was not removed from the area.

Last February, Panama announced it would not renew its Belt and Road infrastructure investment agreement with Beijing, a win for the U.S. administration.

Panamanian President Jose Raul Mulino looks on as U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth (R) signs a bilateral agreement, in Panama City on April 9, 2025. Franco Brana/AFP via Getty Images

26. Trade War, Truce With China

Trump imposed two sets of tariffs on China: fentanyl tariffs over the country’s role in sending chemical precursors to Mexican cartels that traffic the drug into the United States; and reciprocal tariffs over Beijing’s decades-long unfair trade practices harming the United States.

Tit-for-tat tariffs imposed after last April’s “Liberation Day” saw U.S. levies reach as high as 245 percent for some Chinese products. After several bouts of escalation and de-escalation, the two sides reached a 1-year trade truce during Trump’s meeting with Chinese Communist Party leader Xi Jinping in South Korea in October.

Under the deal, Beijing agreed to resume buying U.S. soybeans, allow for the export of rare earths, and take measures to mitigate the flow of fentanyl precursors to the United States.

Shipping containers are seen at the port in Qingdao, in China’s eastern Shandong Province on Aug. 12, 2025. China and the United States delayed higher tariffs on each other’s imports for 90 days, hours before a trade truce between the world’s two largest economies was due to expire on Aug. 12. STR/AFP via Getty Images

27. Tariffs and Trade Deals

The president’s expansive tariff policy has sought to reset global trade and reshore manufacturing to undo what U.S. officials describe as decades of unfair trade practices against the United States.

“Liberation Day” tariffs kicked off trade negotiations with dozens of countries. They’ve resulted in agreements with a host of nations, including the UK, the European Union, Japan, and South Korea.

Meanwhile, tariffs have raised record revenues—approximately $264 billion so far.

The trade deficit in October fell to the lowest level in 16 years.  Tariff revenues have lowered the national debt, and the president has proposed $2,000 tariff rebate checks for citizens. Such a measure would require legislative approval.

The Supreme Court, however, is set to decide whether Trump’s global tariffs are legal. U.S. officials have said that even if they are overturned, the government has other authorities to use to continue levying tariffs.

A chart that shows the reciprocal tariffs the United States is charging other countries is on display at the James Brady Press Briefing Room of the White House on April 2, 2025. President Donald Trump announced new tariffs targeting goods imported to the United States from most trading partners, including China, Japan, and India. Alex Wong/Getty Images

28. Trillions in Investments

Trade negotiations led to a record level of investment in the development and expansion of manufacturing facilities nationwide.

Trump’s May 2025 visit to Gulf countries led to deals totaling more than $2 trillion with the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia. Trade deals with the U.K., the European Union, Japan, and South Korea have led to more than $2 trillion in purchases and investment commitments in the United States.

The United States and Taiwan in January announced a $500 billion deal aimed at reshoring American semiconductor manufacturing.

Trump recently said the “unbelievable success” of tariffs will drive an economic revival in the United States.

Taiwan’s chief trade negotiator, Yang Jen-ni (L), Taiwanese Vice Premier Cheng Li-chiun (C), and Taiwan’s top representative to the United States, Alexander Yui (R), speak at a press conference at the Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office in Washington on Jan. 16, 2026. Eva Fu/The Epoch Times

29. Shuttering USAID

The federal government reorganization included the dismantling of the U.S. Agency for International Development. The Trump administration eliminated approximately 94 percent of contracts, about $54 billion.

Rubio said the organization “strayed from its original mission of responsibly advancing American interests abroad.”

Since December, the United States has signed health deals with more than a dozen African countries under a new aid model, called the “America First Global Health Strategy.” The United States has pledged billions to improve the health systems of the countries, which have committed billions in matching funds.

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio speaks with Kenyan President William Ruto (L) as they arrive for a Health Framework of Cooperation signing ceremony at the State Department in Washington on Dec. 4, 2025. Trump administration officials said the agreement would be the first in a series of agreements with developing countries, based on the “trade not aid” policy. Allison Robbert / AFP via Getty Images

30. Securing Rare Earth Supply Chain

The administration, recognizing the threat posed by China’s chokehold on rare-earth refining, has made a series of domestic and international investments to build an alternative supply chain for critical minerals. Rare earth elements are essential for modern manufacturing, including for cars, electronics, and weapons systems.

Ramaco Resources plans to extract more than 450 tons of rare earths from its 4,500-acre Brook Mine near Ranchester, Wyo., on July 11, 2025. John Haughey/The Epoch Times

In July 2025, the Pentagon entered into a landmark partnership with MP Materials, the country’s largest rare earth miner, committing billions of dollars to support the company and becoming its largest shareholder. MP Materials and the Pentagon also entered into a joint venture with a Saudi state-owned mining company to build a rare earths refinery in the Gulf country.

In October 2025, the United States and Australia agreed to invest $3 billion in rare earth projects.

Venezuela, Cuba, Greenland, Canada… and now President Trump sets his sights on ‘defending’ America’s influence over the tiny but strategically important Indian Ocean island of Diego Garcia and the Chagos islands.

Early Tuesday the US president on social media blasted the UK government led by Prime Minister Keir Starmer, branding Britain’s prior agreement to hand sovereignty over the Chagos Archipelago to Mauritius as an act of “great stupidity” and “total weakness.” 

Washington had backed the arrangement last year under the Joe Biden administration, which transfers the Indian Ocean territory to Mauritius while allowing the UK to retain access to the Diego Garcia air base under a 99-year lease. He has claimed the deal means the UK is planning to “give away the island of Diego Garcia”.

In his Truth Social post, Trump took aim at the deal under which London would surrender sovereignty while leasing back the strategically critical military base on the islands, including Diego Garcia – where US forces also have a base. He took the opportunity to say the move underscored exactly why he wants the United States to take control of Greenland.

“The UK giving away extremely important land is an act of GREAT STUPIDITY, and is another in a very long line of National Security reasons why Greenland has to be acquired. Denmark and its European Allies have to DO THE RIGHT THING,” Trump wrote as his concluding sentence in the message.

Despite that Diego Garcia lies some 1,000 miles from the nearest continent (that’s how far the southern tip of India is), it hosts a highly secretive UK-US military base – and has since the 1970s.

At this point its inhabitants are all military personnel and contractors, after over 900 Chagossian inhabitants were forcibly removed to make way for the military base in the 1960s.

The remote airbase has at times been used by the United States to attack targets in the Middle East. For example, typically just ahead of any potential or threatened Iran strike, the US begins building up aerial assets and forces at Diego Garcia.

For further background: “The U.K. purchased the islands for the equivalent of around $4 million, CBS News partner BBC News reported, but Mauritius had long argued that it was forced to give the islands away in order to achieve its independence in 1968. The U.K. invited the U.S. to build a military base on the island of Diego Garcia, and it has become a cornerstone of American defense infrastructure in the vast Indian Ocean region.”

Over the weekend, Deutsche Bank’s head of FX George Saravelos laid out one theoretical reason why in his view, Europe has leverage over the US in the latest burst of transatlatnic tensions over Greenland: or rather $8 trillion reasons why the US has leverage.

As  Saravelos wrote, “European countries own $8 trillion of US bonds and equities, almost twice as much as the rest of the world combined” and added that in an environment where the geoeconomic stability of the western alliance is being disrupted existentially, “it is not clear why Europeans would be as willing to play this part. Danish  pension funds were one of the first to repatriate money and reduce their dollar exposure this time last year. With USD exposure still very elevated across Europe, developments over the last few days have potential to further encourage dollar rebalancing.“

Sure enough, just hours later, Europe appears to have taken the Deutsche Bank strategist’s advice and contrary to Scott Bessent’s appeals this morning that European governments aggressively selling American debt to counter Washington’s threats over Greenland, would “defy logic”, Bloomberg has reported that the Danish pension fund AkademikerPension is planning to exit US Treasuries by the end of the month, amid concerns that the policies of President Donald Trump have created credit risks too big to ignore. 

“The US is basically not a good credit and long-term the US government finances are not sustainable,” Anders Schelde, chief investment officer at AkademikerPension, told Bloomberg on Tuesday, which is hilarious because this has been the case for years if not decades. Amusingly, it was another Dane, Hans Christian Andersen, who first pointed out that the Emperor is naked. Two hundred years later, Denmark has done it again. 

AkademikerPension, which manages around $25 billion in savings for teachers and academics, held about $100 million in US Treasuries at the end of 2025, Schelde said. Risk and liquidity management is the only reason to remain in Treasuries, and “we decided that we can find alternative to that,” he said.

Schelde cited Trump’s threats to take over Greenland as part of the reason to sell US Treasuries. But concerns about fiscal discipline and a weaker dollar also justify a retreat from US exposure, he said.

And since Europe has a thing for virtue signaling first – like blowing up all their nuclear power plants without any valid replacement in store – and asking questions much later, expect many others to follow in Denmark’s shoes, only to find out months later that there is no market that is deep or liquid enough to absorb the funds without completely blowing up the bid/ask in the process. 

Authored by Arjun Singh via The Epoch Times,

Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem announced on Jan. 19 that more than 10,000 criminal illegal immigrants had been arrested by federal law enforcement officers during ongoing immigration-related operations in Minneapolis.

“We have arrested over 10,000 criminal illegal aliens who were killing Americans, hurting children and reigning terror in Minneapolis,” Noem wrote on X.

“In the last 6 weeks, our brave DHS law enforcement have arrested 3,000 criminal illegal aliens including vicious murderers, rapists, child pedophiles and incredibly dangerous individuals. A HUGE victory for public safety.”

Many law enforcement officers of U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), as well as other agencies, have been deployed to the Minnesota cities of Minneapolis and St. Paul since Dec. 1, as part of Operation Metro Surge.

Local Democratic Party officials and progressive groups have voiced their opposition to this effort, with many protesters demonstrating against law enforcement officers while they are conducting arrests, and have sued the administration to enjoin the law enforcement operations.

The tension grew after protester Renee Nicole Good was shot and killed by an ICE officer. Federal officials said Good drove her SUV into the ICE officer, who shot her in self-defense.

Operation Metro Surge is one of many recent actions the Trump administration has undertaken against Minnesota amid allegations of welfare fraud and race-based discrimination.

The state has been sued by the U.S. Department of Justice for alleged violations of the Civil Rights Act for alleged racial discrimination in state hiring, and is under investigation by the Department of Housing and Urban Development for alleged violations of the Fair Housing Act arising from “racial favoritism.”

Furthermore, dozens of members of the Somali community in the state have been indicted or convicted of fraud involving the theft of public funds on a massive scale.

The Department of Homeland Security has also taken other immigration actions that affected the community, such as terminating Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for Somalia’s citizens and reviewing past asylum and naturalization applications for fraud.

In her post, Noem referenced an ongoing scandal involving the fraudulent misuse of COVID-19 pandemic relief funds in Minnesota, which has implicated Gov. Tim Walz and other Democratic Party officials in the state government.

“There is MASSIVE Fraud in Minneapolis, at least $19 billion and that’s just the tip of iceberg,” Noem stated.

“Our Homeland Security Investigators are on the ground in Minneapolis conducting wide scale investigations to get justice for the American people who have been robbed blind.”

After over the weekend warning that he would impose a 10% tariff on imports from several European countries in response to their opposition to his Greenland takeover plan, later threatening the tariff could be raised to 25% within weeks if those governments fail to fall in line – President Trump has once again escalated, this time with an overnight Truth Social post of a map showing not just Greenland as part of the US but Canada too.

The image features President Trump addressing European leaders in the Oval Office. In the background is a map with Canada, Greenland, Venezuela and Cuba shown them as part of the United States, draped over by American flag colors.

The image is actually an edited version of a real photograph from when various leaders including French President Emmanuel Macron, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen – were in Washington, DC in August 2025, for talks focused on Ukraine peace.

A separate AI-generated image Trump put out overnight depicts the president alongside Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio in Greenland. They are driving an American flag into the ground beside a sign reading, “Greenland-US Territory. Est. 2026.”

Trump is now also clearly putting Canada on notice as the next to potentially feel his wrath and repercussions for joining European countries in resisting his Greenland policy.

Among the latest Greenland Truth Social Posts by President Trump below. He also asserted separately “There can be no going back”…

An unnamed US official told NBC, “Trump is really worried about the U.S. continuing to drift in the Western Hemisphere and is focused on this.” This means America’s longtime northern neighbor is about to feel the pressure to cooperate:

As Trump’s advisers work toward his goal of acquiring Greenland, the president has privately grown more exercised about what he sees as Canada’s similar inability to defend its borders against any encroachment from Russia or China, specifically arguing Canada needs to spend more on defense, the officials said. They said his push has accelerated internal discussions about a broader Arctic strategy and potentially reaching an agreement with Canada this year to fortify its northern border.

NBC observes further, “The current U.S. officials said there is not discussion of stationing American troops on the ground along Canada’s northern border. And unlike with Greenland, Trump is not seeking to purchase Canada or saying he might take it by U.S. military force, the senior administration official and current and former U.S. officials said.”

Canada is actually weighing joining the Europeans with a small troop deployment to Greenland. But as we previewed earlier, while no final decision has been made on a Canadian deployment, such an act would remain largely symbolic in nature – but Canadian leadership under the Carney government is likely very worried about needlessly provoking Trump’s wrath. But too late, it seems.

Prime Minister Mark Carney has said that Canada is “concerned” about what he has called US “escalation” – but again this is a bad moment for Canada to get ‘noticed’ by Trump for joining European ‘defiance’ of this future plans for Greenland. Domestic pressure in Canada is rising for the Carney government to ‘stand up’ to Trump:

As NATO allies send small deployments to Greenland for joint exercises, Prime Minister Mark Carney is mulling sending Canadian troops to join them. Retired Royal Canadian Air Force general and former chief of the defense staff Thomas Lawson says the deployments signal that NATO countries — apart from the U.S. — are unified behind Denmark and Greenland.

—NATO exercises in Greenland a ‘rebuke’ to Trump that Canada should join: retired general

Meanwhile some big, unexpected things are happening between Canada and China, along the lines of a ‘reset’…

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney is pitching Canada as a pillar of a reshaped global trade order, leaning into closer ties with China and a patchwork of smaller trade agreements, even as the northern neighbor remains deeply tethered to the US economy – and despite years of bad relations with Beijing triggered largely by the Huawei affair.

This is the perhaps best illustration that Trump’s new “Monroe doctrine” is objectively achieving the exact opposite of what it intends. pic.twitter.com/M5WJBkoj1M

Carney is currently in Beijing describing a “new era of relations between Canada and China” and explicitly talking…

— Arnaud Bertrand (@RnaudBertrand) January 16, 2026

Last week, Carney went further than many of his European counterparts by striking a deal with Beijing, signaling an effort for Canada to get ahead in a post-American-centric trade system after President Donald Trump’s tariffs have deeply strained long-standing commercial relationships nearly to breaking point.

Fresh commentary from Rabobank unpacks this theme further in the following…

* * *

Canada offers an example of an alternative approach? Mark Carney just made the first visit to China by a Canadian Prime Minister in almost a decade. Canada’s name has been mud in Beijing for years after the former Trudeau government complied with a US warrant for the arrest of Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou in 2019. Trudeau then placed substantial tariffs on imports of Chinese steel, aluminium and electric vehicles – where duties were set at 100% for the latter.

Carney has now signed a deal with China to lower EV tariffs to 6.1% up to an annual quota of 49,000 vehicles. In return China will drop tariffs on Canadian canola to 15%. Having previously described China as the greatest threat to Canada’s national security, Carney is now saying that the relations with the Middle Kingdom are more predictable than relations with the United States, and is making a show of cozying up to Beijing. As one observer puts it on X, Carney’s pivot is a “vintage Gaullist move.”

Carney is attempting to leverage Trump by signing deals with Beijing and even flirting with the idea of sending Canadian troops to Greenland. With Chinese influence having been ejected unceremoniously from Venezuela, and under pressure in the Panama Canal, the last thing the Trump administration would want is for Canada to offer China another geopolitical toehold in the Western hemisphere. Carney offering that toehold in the Arctic, directly adjacent to Greenland, must be particularly ‘de-Gaulling’ for Trump, who is so far calling the bluff by shrugging his shoulders. However, this strategy is incredibly high risk.

Not only does Carney’s backdown on Chinese EVs threaten Canada’s own auto industry (see criticism from Ontario Premier Doug Ford here), but there is always the chance that poking the (US) bear might actually elicit a response from the bear. Canada sends ~75% of its goods exports to the United States while the United States is by far the largest supplier of armaments to Canada. Consequently, Carney will be hoping that Trump’s response is to offer him a better deal than Xi Jinping is willing to give. However, with the USMCA trade agreement up for renegotiation and the US back in a Great Power frame of mind, Carney runs the risk that Donald Trump might instead decide that Canada is also very nice..

US equity futures are sharply lower, on pace for their biggest drop of the year, with Beta underperforming. And while geopolitics are the catalyst – as attention remains glued to see what Trump will say next on his Truth Social feed ahead of this week’s Davos meetings – after Trump reignited his trade war with Europe, the moves are exacerbated by a meltdown in JGBs (in a historic move, 30Y JGB are +27bp, a 6-sigma move) which has triggered a global bond selloff. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are down 1.4%, but off their worst levels of the morning; Nasdaq futures slide 1.7%. Pre-market, all of Mag7 are lower alongside higher beta plays. Energy, Materials, Staples, and Utils are outperforming on the move lower. In the latest geopolitical news, the EU suggests a proportional response to Trump’s Greenland demands but that the previous trade deal still holds as Trump threatens additional tariffs on France; at the same time, Bessent says that EU is not looking to exit their Treasury holdings after a report from Deutsche suggested Europe – which holds a record $8 trillion in US assets – could do just that. The yield curve is twisting steeper with belly to backend of the yield curve +3 – 9bp as DXY falls the most since late Aug. Commodities are today’s safe haven led by nat gas (ahead of freezing polar blasts in both Europe and the US) and precious metals (gold and silver both at new record highs, gold rising above $4700 and silver fast approaching $100). Today’s macro focus is the weekly ADP print and any updates from Davos as the market wants to see if today will be another TACO Tuesday. 

In premarket trading, Magnificent Seven stocks decline alongside other growth names (Amazon -2.4%, Alphabet -2.3%, Tesla -2.1%, Nvidia -2%, Meta Platforms -2.1%, Microsoft -1.5%, Apple -1.3%) 

• Gold and silver miners, including Newmont (NEM) and Agnico Eagle (AEM), rise as investors to look for safe-haven assets after US President Donald Trump announced a new 10% levy on eight European countries opposed to his plans to seize Greenland. Newmont +3%, Agnico Eagle +3.6%
• And as traders flee risk, decliners include crypto-linked stocks such as Coinbase (COIN), which is down 4%.
• 3M Co. (MMM) declines 4% after providing a 2026 adjusted earnings forecast range with a midpoint that fell slightly short of estimates. Adjusted earnings will be $8.50 to $8.70 a share in 2026, the maker of Post-it notes said. Analysts had expected $8.64 on average, according to the average of estimates compiled by Bloomberg.
• AppLovin (APP) falls 7% after a negative research report by CapitalWatch. The stock was also weighed down by a broader tech selloff amid rising geopolitical tension.
• Ciena Corp. (CIEN) drops 6% after BofA Global Research cut its recommendation to neutral from buy, citing valuation and future backlog.
• ImmunityBio (IBRX) rises 23% after the drug developer said it held a Type B End-of-Phase meeting with the US FDA regarding its supplemental application for its drug to treat bladder cancer.
• Netflix Inc. (NFLX) inches about 1% higher after reaching an amended, all-cash agreement to buy Warner Bros. Discovery Inc.’s studio and streaming business as it battles Paramount Skydance Corp. to acquire one of Hollywood’s most iconic entertainment companies.

In corporate news, Apple retook the top spot in China after iPhone shipments jumped 28% during the holiday quarter, according to Counterpoint Research. Bain Capital is said to be working with Citigroup and JPMorgan on a review of Singapore-based Bridge Data Centres that may lead to a stake sale.

While traders have been able to get past a whirlwind of other unexpected developments this year, the standoff over Greenland is giving even the biggest bulls a jolt, with no off-ramp yet and forcing the biggest overnight selloff in US futures this year. Trump’s push to take control of Greenland, and renewed trade war with Europe, has injected fresh volatility into markets, reviving fears of a trade confrontation between traditional allies with little sign of compromise. Adding to tensions, Trump overnight threatened to impose steep tariffs on champagne after French President Emmanuel Macron ruled out joining a US-led peace initiative.

The VIX broke above 20 points for the first time since November. Trump’s threat to impose tariffs unless a deal is reached for the purchase of Greenland has sparked speculation that European countries could dump US assets (easier said than done), while a spat with France’s Macron left Trump considering a 200% tariff on wine and champagne.

“The only hope really is that Republican senators and congressmen put a stop to this,” said Laurent Lamagnere, deputy chief executive officer at AlphaValue in Paris. “Investors have taken advantage of these volatility moments to buy the dip but for myself, I am not comfortable. There is no guarantee it will work this time.”

Adding to the pain, long-term treasury yields spiked after a meltdown in Japanese bonds, sending the 30-year US rate up nine basis points to 4.93%. Investors balked at Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s election pitch to cut taxes on food, pushing Japan’s 40-year rate to a fresh high.

8 hours later, 6-sigma collapse https://t.co/taZruAyYX8 pic.twitter.com/pbUB3QpMh3

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) January 20, 2026

The latest market drama comes in a backdrop of extreme bullishness. Investors are the most bullish in nearly five years, while protection against an equity correction is at the lowest since 2018, according to Bank of America’s latest fund manager survey. With BofA’s indicator showing the market at a “hyper-bull level,” it’s time to increase risk hedges and havens, strategist Michael Hartnett said. Still, investors caught between FOMO and growing geopolitical risks can take a cue from derivatives strategists: Hot trades for 2026 range from vanilla tail hedges to bespoke dispersion baskets.

Adding to the deluge of headlines, the annual World Economic Forum in Davos is on this week. Bessent urged calm over Greenland at a press conference, while Trump said he will use the event to meet with various parties over his ambition to take control of Greenland. Bessent also said in his remarks that the next Fed chair could be announced next week.

Barclays’ strategist Emmanuel Cau said “erratic” US policies may reinforce “sell America” bias among global allocators. Allianz Global Investors sees the risk of an escalating trade war between the world’s largest economies as “significantly higher” compared to the aftermath of Liberation Day, and expects precious metals to benefit.

Stocks in Europe have extended yesterday’s declines, Stoxx 600 is lower by 1.3% with industrial good and construction stocks leading declines, while media and food beverage shares outperformed. Here are the biggest movers Tuesday:

• Wise shares jump as much as 14.3%, marking their best day since mid-2023, after the financial technology company surpassed results expectations and raised its margin goal for the full year
• Renault shares rise as much as 3.2% as the French carmaker’s brand vehicle sales increased 3.2% last year and the firm said it will work with Turgis Gaillard on a drone project
• Inficon shares rise as much as 6.6% to the highest in nearly a year, after Deutsche Bank upgrades the Swiss vacuum instruments maker to buy from hold and raises the price target by almost 50%
• LVMH falls as much as 2.4% in Paris, on track for a seventh straight session of losses, the longest streak since March, after US President Donald Trump signaled he could impose a 200% tariff on French wines and champagne
• BKW shares fall as much as 12%, the most since June 2023, after the Swiss energy firm cut its Ebit guidance for the full year following a value adjustment of its Wilhelmshaven coal power plant
• Acciona Energias Renovables declines as much as 5.5% as RBC double-downgrades to underperform, saying the renewables firm’s weak balance sheet is a key driver of earnings risk. Parent company Acciona SA drops 5%
• Fresenius Medical Care shares slip as much as 3.5% after Goldman Sachs downgraded its recommendation on the stock to neutral from buy, citing several headwinds for 2026
• Carl Zeiss Meditec shares drop as much as 6.3%, to the lowest since February 2017, after Goldman Sachs cut its rating on the German medical optics company to neutral from buy, citing further challenges this fiscal year
• Valneva shares drop as much as 14%, after the French vaccine maker said it had decided to voluntarily withdraw the biologics license application and investigational new drug application for its chikungunya shot, Ixchiq, in the US

Asian stocks fell, as equities in Japan extended their decline amid growing political uncertainty. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.5%, and earlier dropped as much as 0.8%, the most in more than a week. Tech names including Samsung Electronics, Tencent and SK Hynix were among the biggest drags on the gauge. Along with Japan’s shares, gauges in China and South Korea fell, and Indian stocks touched a two-month low. Japan’s Topix index fell the most in a month as political uncertainty grew following Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s snap election announcement. Simmering geopolitical tensions around US President Donald Trump’s threats to Greenland’s sovereignty also hurt risk appetite. Chinese equities fell following a raft of measures by Beijing to cool a market rally. Regulators have tightened requirements for margin financing and clamped down on high-speed traders to rein in potential froth.

“Asia markets are largely shrugging off the US-Europe drama,” said Derek Tay, head of investments at Kamet Capital Partners. “Trump seems to like to dramatize everything and talk big before walking back his threats.”

As earnings season kicks into gear, the bar is high for companies to deliver. Analysts predict fourth-quarter S&P 500 earnings growth of 8%, according to data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence. Key themes include AI spending, oil and tariff jitters and the defense boom. Morgan Stanley strategists, meanwhile, expect an above-average EPS beat rate as the bar was low coming into the quarter.

In FX, the dollar is weaker versus all major peers, with the Bloomberg Dollar Index down 0.3%. The Swiss franc remains the haven of choice with CHF/JPY hitting the 200 level for the first time on record. Gains in the yen are limited by fiscal angst in the run-up to the Feb. 8 election.

In rates, an overnight surge in long-dated Japanese yields, which soared by much as 27bps, has set the tone for fixed income markets. US 10- and 30-year yields are up 7bps and 9bps respectively, with the curve bear-steepening. The German 10-year yield is up 5bps and its UK counterpart higher by 7bps.

In commodities, it’s been another day of record highs for spot gold and silver, which are posting respective gains of 1.2% and 1.0%. Crude futures are showing marginal gains with little follow-through from Libya’s oil crescent halting operations amid adverse weather conditions. Bitcoin is down 1.9%. 

The US economic calendar includes weekly ADP employment change (8:15am) and January Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing activity (8:30am). Fed officials are in a self-imposed communications blackout ahead of the Jan. 28 policy decision, with no action on rates priced into short-term interest-rate products

Market Wrap

• S&P 500 mini -1.7%
• Nasdaq 100 mini -2%
• Russell 2000 mini -2% (*)
• Stoxx Europe 600 -1.2%
• DAX -1.4%
• CAC 40 -1.2%
• 10-year Treasury yield +7 basis points at 4.29%
• VIX +1.4 points at 20.25
• Bloomberg Dollar Index -0.3% at 1204.7
• euro +0.6% at $1.1718
• WTI crude +0.3% at $59.6/barrel

Top Overnight News

• Japan’s bond rout intensified as investors gave a thumbs down to Sanae Takaichi’s election pitch to cut taxes on food. The 40-year yield rocketed past 4%, a first for any maturity of the nation’s sovereign debt in more than three decades. BBG
• Trump’s big Davos speech tomorrow is set to focus on affordability. He’s expected to outline a proposal to allow 401(k) savings to fund home down-payments and elaborate on plans to ban institutional investors from buying single-family homes, cap credit card rates and intervene in the market for MBS. BBG
• Scott Bessent urged calm over Greenland, calling for Europe to honor trade agreements and telling the World Economic Forum in Davos that the idea that Europeans might dump US assets “defies any logic.” BBG
• Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell plans to attend Wednesday’s Supreme Court hearing over the attempted dismissal of Fed Governor Lisa Cook by President Donald Trump, according to a person familiar with the situation. BBG
• US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said President Donald Trump could announce his pick for the next Federal Reserve chair as soon as next week. BBG
• Trump: “I know who I want to be Fed Chair, will announce sometime”.
• Senior state planners in China are formulating a five-year plan to lift domestic demand, acknowledging that the world’s second-largest economy currently faces an imbalance between “strong supply and weak demand.” WSJ
• China bought about 12 million tons of US soybeans over the past three months, traders said, meeting a key pledge in its trade talks with the US. BBG
• President Donald Trump threatened to hit French wines and champagnes with 200% tariffs in an apparent effort to cajole French President Emmanuel Macron into joining his Board of Peace initiative aimed at resolving global conflicts. RTRS
• Netflix reached an amended, all-cash agreement to buy Warner Bros. Discovery Inc’s studio and streaming business as it battles Paramount Skydance Corp. to acquire one of Hollywood’s most iconic entertainment companies. BBG

Trade/Tariffs

• US President Trump: “I will impose 200% tariff on French wines and champagne, and President Macron will join the Board of Peace”.
• China said they hit its US soy purchase target of 12mln tonnes, Bloomberg reported citing traders.
• Taiwan’s Vice President said we will balance the trade deficit between Taiwan and the US.
• South Korea is reportedly to hold off on USD 20bln worth of US trade investment, due to KRW impact.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded mostly in the red, except the KOSPI, as the tech sector led the declines. ASX 200 continued to fall away from its 2026 peak of 8915, despite the positivity seen in the metals space as BHP upgraded its FY26 copper production guidance. Nikkei 225 neared 53,000, falling from its ATH of 54,522, as traders assess the policies put forward by the LDP and Centrist Reform Alliance going into the February 8th elections. KOSPI was set to snap its 5-day winning streak, falling from its ATH at 4924, as the tech sector weighs on sentiment. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix briefly led losses, with shares down as much as 3% each before price gradually rebounded but remained in the red. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp traded with modest losses, and little follow-through from the PBoC unsurprisingly holding LPRs steady. Global equities continue to price in the re-escalation of tariffs between the US and EU.

Top Asian News

• Citi sees the potential of 3 rate hikes in 2026 by the BoJ if JPY weakness continues.

European equities (STOXX 600 -1.3%) are trading on the back foot, with sentiment remaining under pressure as trade tensions between the US and Europe continue to escalate. The latest development came overnight, when US President Trump threatened to impose a 200% tariff on French wine and champagne. However, Treasury Secretary Bessent spoke on EU-US relations, saying that he is confident that leaders will not escalate and things will work out. European sectors are largely trading in the red; Media leads whilst Industrials and Utilities underperform.

Top European News

• US Treasury Secretary Bessent said the US is experiencing a capex boom, which always leads to an employment boom. The narrative of EU nations discussing selling USTs is false; there is no talk of this, it is mis-reporting. On trade:. said the worst thing countries can do is heighten trade tension with the US. The narrative of EU nations discussing selling USTs is false. There is no talk of this, it is mis-reporting. Swiss-US agreement is well along the road. On EU-US relations, said there is no need to jump to the worst case scenario at this point. Reminds that trade ties have been strained before, and it worked out. Is confident that leaders will not escalate and that it will work out. On Economy:. Expects economic growth to be strong this year, at around 4-5% real GDP growth. They will see substantial refunds of up to USD 1000 per worker in Q1.
• Citi downgrades Continental Europe to Neutral from Overweight; rising tensions and tariff uncertainties undermine the short-term outlook for European equities.

FX

• DXY is on a weak footing this morning, and currently trades at the bottom end of a 98.46-99.13 range. To recap, overnight, President Trump threatened a 200% tariff on French wines/champagne after French President Macron rejected his invitation to join his latest peace initiative. Thereafter, Trump said the UK is acting with “great stupidity”, following the Chagos deal.
• The largest bout of pressure for the Dollar was after Treasury Secretary Bessent called for calm and reminded markets that US-EU relations have been strained before, but eventually worked out. This seemingly poured some cooler water on the situation, and the index fell from around 98.85 to a current session low of 98.46.
• The recent pressure in the USD has helped to push G10s higher across the board; CHF tops the leaderboard, the EUR resides near highs beyond the 1.1700 mark, whilst USD/JPY has slipped below the 158.00 mark to make a trough at 157.58. Overnight, the JPY was shunned, alongside aggressive selling in JGBs, spurred by increased bets of unsustainable fiscal policy after PM Takaichi called snap elections and the fiscal commentary from parties since.
• Elsewhere, Cable sits towards session highs and within a 1.3410-1.3491 range. Earlier, the November jobs report showed a tick higher in the unemployment rate, whilst the wage components remained elevated. A knee-jerk lower was seen in the Pound, but this pared almost immediately, given the narrative around a summer-cut has not really shifted for the BoE.

Fixed Income

• Fixed on the backfoot as yields climb in catch-up to Monday’s US holiday and with Japan at record levels.
• JGBs down to a 130.66 base, c. 80 ticks below the close on Monday. Pressure driven by the Takaichi trade being in force into the formal election announcement on Friday, and then the polls on 8th February. Pressure that appears to be driven by scrutiny of the fiscal plans of both the government and the combined opposition, as they outline plans to postpone/remove various tax measures.
• Action that has driven Japanese yields to highs. The 40yr above 4.23% (+40bps), the 30yr above 3.90% (+41bps), 20y to 3.48% (+32bps), 10yr to 2.38% (+20bps). With the curve markedly steeper.
• Macquarie’s Berry wrote, “if the selloff continues, and especially if it spreads globally, then we should see the BoJ dust it [bond buying tool] off and put it to work – maybe as early as tomorrow morning’s daily operations”.
• Evidently, we have seen the selloff spread globally. USTs are pressured down by around 9 ticks, and currently resides at the bottom end of the day’s range; Gilts (-70 ticks) and Bunds (-45 ticks) also follow suit. The latter took a leg lower on the region’s ZEW metrics, whereby the Expectations figure topped expectations and improved from the prior.
• Japan sold JPY 800bln 20-year JGBs; b/c 3.19x (prev. 4.10x, 12-month avg. 3.44x), average yield 3.2510% (prev. 2.916%). Tail 25bps (prev. 3bps).

Commodities

• Crude on the backfoot but only marginally so. Spent the APAC session in a narrow range with complex-specific newsflow somewhat light as the market focus remains on Greenland and the tariffs stemming from it. Early morning trade saw some mild selling in the complex, but this has since reversed to trade towards highs of USD 59.59/bbl and USD 64.27/bbl.
• Spot gold at highs, printed another ATH of USD 4737/oz given the risk tone and despite the morning’s significant yield strength.
• Base peers in the red. 3M LME Copper down to USD 12.8k/T, within reach of Friday’s USD 12.7k/T base and back towards opening levels from early-January.
• China announces plans to expand high-level opening of nonferrous metals future markets by steadily including eligible futures and options in foreign access.
• China raises both gas and diesel prices by CNY 85 per tonne from the 21st January.
• Venezuela’s Acting President said plans to boost gold and iron output in 2026, and attract metals investment for FX.
• China’s Shanghai Futures Exchange to adjust margin requirements and daily price limits for selected copper, aluminium, gold and silver futures contracts from the 22nd of January settlements.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

• Ukrainian President Zelensky might go to Davos if he has a bilateral meeting with Trump to sign “prosperity deal”.
• Russia’s Lavrov said they yet to receive documents following recent US and European talks on Ukraine.
• Russia’s Lavrov said they are ready for contact with the US on Balkans.

Geopolitics: Others

• European Commission President von der Leyen says the bloc’s response will be united, proportional and unflinching. The territorial integrity of Greenland is non-negotiable and they will be working on wider Arctic security measures.
• UK Government, in response to Trump’s remarks on Diegeo Garcia, said “the deal secures the operations of the joint US-UK base on Diego Garcia…” and “It has been publicly welcomed by the US…”.
• US President Trump posted “Thank you to Mark Rutte, the Secretary General of NATO!”.
• US President Trump posted “the United Kingdom, is currently planning to give away the Island of Diego Garcia…” adds that this “is another in a very long line of National Security reasons why Greenland has to be acquired.”.
• US President Trump, on Truth Social, said he had a good phone call with NATO Secretary General Rutte about Greenland, and have agreed to meet various parties in Davos.
• US President Trump said he will talk about Greenland in Davos, does not think the EU will push back too much on Greenland.
• US President Trump conceded in a weekend phone call with UK PM Starmer that he was given bad information regarding troop deployments from European countries to Greenland, CNN reported citing senior UK official.

US Event Calendar

• 8:15am ADP Weekly Employment Change
• 8:30am Philadelphiaa Fed Non-mfg Survey

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

I watched the new Game of Thrones prequel last night. When I first watched the original series 15 years ago the geopolitics of Westeros and beyond were that of pure fantasy. A decade and a half on and it sometimes feel like we’re now in our own episode with all that’s going on in the world.

With the US off yesterday the implications of the tariff threats over Greenland had yet to fully percolate through financial markets. This morning US cash bond trading have reopened in Asia and 10yr USTs are +3.8bps higher trading at 4.26% and 30yrs +4.8bps at 4.885%. 2yr yields are flat. The sharp sell-off in long-end bonds ultimately reversed the full effects of Liberation Day so it’s worth keeping an eye on the demand for US assets as a barometer for how aggressive the US might be on this policy.

S&P 500 (-1.01%) and NASDAQ 100 (-1.14%) futures are at similar levels to where they were when Europe went home last night with European equity futures flat to slightly lower. Asia equity markets are selling off a touch more with the Nikkei (-0.98%) being the largest underperformer, followed by the ASX (-0.66%). All other main Asian markets are within a tenth or two of being flat on both sides of zero. JGBs continue to see a very large sell-off, ahead of the upcoming election on February 8th, this time not helped by a soft 20yr auction. 10 and 30yr yields are +8.1bps and +21.7bps higher this morning with 40yr yields crossing 4%. Pretty dramatic moves especially as 10yr yields had already moved +7.7bps yesterday.

This morning the Euro has edged up another tenth of a percent and is now +0.55% above the pre-weekend levels with the Dollar yesterday weakening against every other G10 currency, just as long-end Treasury futures were also losing ground. Interestingly Polymarket suggest the probability of all Trump’s Greenland tariffs going into effect by February 1st is currently 18%, rising to 39% for some of these being imposed. Denmark and Norway are those seen with the highest likelihood of sticking. So Polymarket participants expect compromise but not with high certainty.

So markets have reacted but there’s clearly room for bigger moves if the rhetoric increases further. Trump will likely continue to be active beforehand but remember he speaks at Davos tomorrow and this would be an ideal location for him to get his full views of the world across. Yesterday he declined to rule out the use of force to take Greenland, saying “No comment” when asked by NBC News in an interview. That’s driven growing fears about some kind of retaliatory trade escalation from Europe, with increasingly strong comments from several officials. For instance, German finance minister Lars Klingbeil said that “We are constantly experiencing new provocations, we are constantly experiencing new antagonism, which President Trump is seeking, and here we Europeans must make it clear that the limit has been reached”. Nevertheless, US Treasury Secretary Bessent warned the EU against retaliatory tariffs, saying they’d be “very unwise”.

At around 530am London time just before we go to print Trump posted on social media that “I had a very good telephone call with Mark Rutte, the Secretary General of NATO, concerning Greenland. I agreed to a meeting of the various parties in Davos, Switzerland. As I expressed to everyone, very plainly, Greenland is imperative for National and World Security. There can be no going back — On that, everyone agrees.”  So some elements of conciliation but without changing his demands.

In terms of what it meant for equities yesterday, trade-exposed sectors were particularly affected. So the STOXX 600 (-1.19%) posted its worst performance in two months, with auto companies like BMW (-3.43%) and Porsche (-3.73%) falling back, whilst a decline in luxury stocks pushed France’s CAC 40 (-1.78%) back into negative territory for 2026. Defence stocks were the main exception however, with Rheinmetall (+0.95%) one of the few to advance on expectations this could galvanise a fresh push towards higher European defence spending. S&P 500 futures were down around -1% at the time of the European close, whilst the VIX index of volatility (+2.98pts) has jumped to 18.8pts as I type, its highest level in nearly 2 months.  Elsewhere, Gold prices have risen +1.84% since the weekend.

The situation is complicated by the upcoming Supreme Court ruling on the IEEPA tariffs, which might end up further constraining Trump’s room for manoeuvre on tariffs. However, no-one knows when this will come through (apart from maybe the judges). The bid offer is somewhere between today and June. The market has been burnt before by overreacting to tariff threats. Obviously, there was Liberation Day but more recently Trump’s escalation with China in October prompted a -2.71% decline for the S&P 500 on that day, before he then met with Xi and the trade truce was extended by a year.

For sovereign bonds, the latest developments brought about a clear curve steepening, echoing what happened in previous moments of trade escalations. At the front end, the rally was driven by more dovish central bank pricing, as investors grappled with the prospect of more rate cuts to soften any trade war. So 2yr German yields (-3.1bps) saw a clear decline yesterday, but with 10yr bund yields up +0.5bps.

Otherwise yesterday, there was little data of note, although the Euro Area CPI reading for December was revised down very slightly to +1.9%, having been at +2.0% on the flash print. Elsewhere, Canada’s CPI print was higher than expected yesterday, with headline inflation picking up to +2.4% (vs. +2.2% expected). However, the two measures of core inflation tracked by the Bank of Canada both fell back, with the median core measure down to +2.5% (vs. +2.7% expected), whilst the trim core measure fell to +2.7% as expected. Finally, the IMF also released their latest growth forecasts, upgrading global growth in 2026 by two-tenths to +3.3%, with 2027 unchanged at +3.2%.

Looking at the day ahead, data releases include UK unemployment for November, along with the German ZEW survey for January. Central bank speakers include the ECB’s Nagel, along with BoE Governor Bailey and Deputy Governor Ramsden. Finally, earnings releases include Netflix and United Airlines.