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FAA Warns Airlines Of Military Activities In Central America, Eastern Pacific

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FAA Warns Airlines Of Military Activities In Central America, Eastern Pacific

The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) urged airlines on Jan. 16 to exercise caution when flying over Central America and the eastern Pacific due to military activities and potential navigation interference.

The FAA said it issued notices covering the airspace in Mexico, Central America, Panama, Bogotá, Guayaquil, and Mazatlán Oceanic Flight Regions, as well as parts of the eastern Pacific Ocean.

The notices will remain effective for 60 days, according to its statement.

Potential risks exist for aircraft at all altitudes, including during overflight and the arrival and departure phases of flight,” the aviation regulator said in its notices to airmen (NOTAMs).

As Aldgra Fredly reports below for The Epoch Times, the notices came just weeks after U.S. forces carried out airstrikes on Venezuela’s capital, Caracas, on Jan. 3 and captured Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, from their residence to face drug and arms-related charges in the United States.

Tensions have intensified in the region as the U.S. military stepped up counter-narcotics operations in the Caribbean and eastern Pacific. Last month, a JetBlue flight departing from the Caribbean nation of Curacao, just off the coast of Venezuela, halted its ascent to avoid a collision with a U.S. Air Force refueling tanker.

FAA issued an advisory on Dec. 16, 2025, warning airlines of the security situation in Venezuela and urging pilots to exercise caution when operating in the Maiquetia flight information region, which covers Venezuelan airspace.

The advisory was set to remain in effect until Feb. 19, and marked the regulator’s second warning last year on security risks in Venezuelan airspace amid the U.S. military’s counter-narcotics operations in the Caribbean.

Following Maduro’s ouster, President Donald Trump warned drug traffickers in Colombia and Mexico that they could face action by the U.S. military.

Trump told Fox News on Jan. 8 that the U.S. military will begin ground operations targeting drug cartels in Mexico.

“We knocked out 97 percent of the drugs coming in by water, and we are going to start now hitting land with regard with the cartels,” Trump said.

“The cartels are running Mexico. It’s very sad to watch and see what’s happened to that country.”

Trump told reporters on Jan. 4 that he had spoken to Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum and offered U.S. troops to help combat drug trafficking in Mexico.

He said that despite her concern, Sheinbaum was “just not willing” and “a little afraid.”

Mexico has strongly denounced the U.S. airstrikes on Venezuela. The Mexican Foreign Ministry issued a statement on Jan. 3 calling for dialogue between the two nations and urging the United Nations to help de-escalate tensions.

“Latin America and the Caribbean is a zone of peace, built on the basis of mutual respect, the peaceful settlement of disputes and the prohibition of the use and threat of force, so any military action seriously jeopardizes regional stability,” the ministry stated.

Tyler Durden
Sat, 01/17/2026 – 19:15

CDC Quietly Rewrites Its Vaccine-Autism Guidance

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CDC Quietly Rewrites Its Vaccine-Autism Guidance

Authored by Maryanne Demasi via The Brownstone Institute,

For the first time in a generation, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has rewritten its official position on whether vaccines can cause autism.

This is a change that could reshape one of the most politically charged and emotionally fraught debates in modern medicine.

In a website update published on 19 November 2025, the agency now states that the long-standing claim “vaccines do not cause autism” is “not an evidence-based claim” because scientific studies “have not ruled out the possibility that infant vaccines cause autism.”

The page also acknowledges that “studies supporting a link have been ignored by health authorities.”

It’s difficult to overstate the significance of these statements. For nearly two decades, they would have been unthinkable for a federal public health agency.

The timing is equally striking.

The change arrives at a moment when the political and scientific landscape around vaccine safety is undergoing a marked shift inside the Trump–Kennedy administration.

For months, critics have accused Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr and several of the administration’s appointees of holding unconventional views on vaccine safety.

The CDC’s revised language now places the agency closer to Kennedy’s long-standing argument that federal agencies had ignored crucial evidence.

The CDC explains the shift by pointing to the Data Quality Act, which requires federal communications to accurately reflect the evidence.

Because studies have not excluded the possibility that infant vaccines could contribute to autism, the agency concedes that its long-standing categorical statement was not scientifically justified.

The update states plainly that scientific uncertainty remains, particularly for vaccines administered in the first year of life.

Scientific Uncertainty Finally Acknowledged

The information on the website draws a sharp distinction between the infant vaccine schedule — which includes DTaP, HepB, Hib, IPV, PCV and others — and the measles–mumps–rubella (MMR) vaccine.

For the MMR, the CDC continues to cite observational evidence showing “no association … with autism spectrum disorders,” describing the conclusion as supported by “high strength of evidence.”

But the agency also acknowledges that these studies had “serious methodological limitations” and were all retrospective epidemiological analyses, the type that cannot establish cause and effect or identify subgroups who may be more vulnerable.

The acknowledgement of limitations is unusually candid for a federal agency discussing vaccines and autism.

For the infant vaccine schedule, the shift is even more dramatic.

The CDC cites a series of authoritative reviews — including the 1991 and 2012 Institute of Medicine’s assessments, and the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality’s review in 2021 — all concluding that the evidence was “inadequate to accept or reject” a causal relationship between early-life vaccines and autism.

In other words, the fundamental scientific question remains unresolved.

Political Dynamite

The political context makes this change even more consequential. Senator Bill Cassidy (R-LA), who chairs the Senate Health Committee, has been one of the most vocal critics of Kennedy’s vaccine views.

Cassidy has repeatedly insisted that the science on autism and vaccination was settled years ago. Now the CDC states that the claim “vaccines do not cause autism” does not meet evidence standards.

Remarkably, the CDC states that the headline phrase remains on the page only “due to an agreement with the chair of the U.S. Senate Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions Committee.”

The implication — that the wording is a political compromise rather than a scientific one — will undoubtedly invite scrutiny on Capitol Hill.

Attorney Aaron Siri, who has spent years litigating against federal agencies for greater transparency around vaccine safety, said the update marks a long-overdue shift in honesty from the CDC.

“It is an excellent step in the right direction for CDC to start telling the truth to the public about its past misdeeds and misrepresentations,” said Siri.

“Telling the truth and apologising for its prior misrepresentations is the only way the CDC will ever rebuild trust with the public,” he added.

How the Wakefield Saga Shaped Debate

For years, any attempt to revisit the vaccine–autism question was coloured by the fallout from the “Wakefield saga.”

The retracted 1998 Lancet paper became a shorthand for misinformation, and it allowed public health agencies to dismiss all subsequent concerns as if they were simply a continuation of that controversy.

The episode became a kind of cultural firewall.

Invoking Wakefield was an easy way to shut down inquiry, even when parents were describing patterns that had nothing to do with the MMR vaccine and everything to do with the expanding infant schedule.

The CDC’s admission that the evidence for early-life vaccines is “inadequate to accept or reject” a causal link — and that some studies “supporting a link have been ignored” — breaks the long-standing habit of waving away legitimate questions by pointing back to a decades-old scandal.

A Broad Recalibration

The CDC’s shift also aligns with a broader recalibration underway across federal health agencies in the US.

The Trump administration has ordered new NIH reviews of vaccine safety science, reinstated the Task Force on Safer Childhood Vaccines, and rejuvenated the CDC’s Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP).

The pattern is unmistakable: agencies that once treated certain questions as “settled science” are now reopening them and its impact is likely to reverberate across the globe.

The CDC now admits the science has not ruled out potential links for vaccines given in infancy.

The website also notes that “about one in two surveyed parents of children with autism” believe vaccination played a role, often pointing to shots given in the first months of life or around the one-year mark.

Until now, those parents were often told their concerns were baseless. The agency’s new wording fundamentally alters that dynamic.

Changing the Conversation

In the US at least, public health agencies will no longer be able to respond to parental concerns with blanket denials.

Moreover, researchers studying plausible mechanisms — such as aluminium adjuvants, neuroinflammation, mitochondrial vulnerabilities, and immune activation — will find themselves in an environment that formally recognises these questions as scientifically legitimate.

Informed consent practices may need to be revisited as the existence of uncertainty is formally acknowledged.

And lawmakers who insisted that the science was settled will now face uncomfortable questions about why federal agencies relied on definitive messaging that did not meet evidence standards.

To be clear — the CDC’s update does NOT assert that vaccines cause autism. What it does say — with clarity the agency has avoided for years — is that the available evidence has not established that they do not, at least for the vaccines given in early infancy.

That distinction may seem subtle, but it represents a profound shift in how the conversation is framed and will undoubtedly impact the personal experiences of families raising autistic children.

For the first time that I can remember, the question of vaccines and autism is no longer treated as taboo. It has been recast — at the CDC’s own hand — as a research question that demands proper investigation.

The shift may prove to be one of the most consequential public health developments of the decade, and it suggests that something significant is moving behind the scenes in the federal agencies that once seemed immovable.

Old CDC Website:

Updated CDC Website:

Republished from the author’s Substack

Tyler Durden
Sat, 01/17/2026 – 18:40

DOJ Moves To Block Independent ‘Special Master’ From Overseeing Epstein Disclosures

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DOJ Moves To Block Independent ‘Special Master’ From Overseeing Epstein Disclosures

After campaigning on transparency regarding the Epstein files, President Trump became quickly defensive when asked about them shortly after taking office last year – which continued into July, when Trump clapped back at a journalist who asked about Epstein’s ties to a foreign intelligence agency, asking; “Are you still talking about Jeffrey Epstein?” 

Trump’s outburst came months after AG Pam Bondi said she had the entire Epstein client list on her desk, and later revealed that there were “tens of thousands of videos of Epstein with children or child porn,” and that there were “hundreds of victims.” 

Then we had the botched Binder release, Patel and Bongino insisting the Epstein list doesn’t exist and that Epstein definitely killed hismelf. 

In September of last year, Trump called the Epstein controversy an “irrelevant Democrat hoax,” as Democrats, and Reps. Thomas Massie and MTG pushed for the release of the Epstein Files – which eventually culminated in the November passage of the Epstein Files Transparency Act, which required the DOJ to release Epstein files. And instead of just doing that, they released highly redacted files highlighting Epstein’s ties with Democrats

Which brings us to today

In response to the Trump DOJ’s redacted releases, Massie and Dem Rep. Ro Khanna pushed for a special master to provide independent oversight and ensure both compliance and speed, the NY Post reports. 

The DOJ responded by saying that it has assigned 500+ reviewers to the project, and has formally moved to block the appointment of a special master. In a six-page letter filed with US District Judge Paul. A Engelmayer, DOJ prosecutors contend that efforts to force production of the Epstein Files are an improper attempt to relitigate a concluded criminal case. 

According to the filing, amici curiae are intended to provide neutral legal analysis—not to introduce new disputes, seek new remedies, or assume an adversarial role. The government argues that Khanna and Massie are attempting to do precisely that by asking the court to oversee DOJ document production, compel testimony from prosecutors, and effectively enforce a statute that provides no judicial enforcement mechanism.

“An amicus cannot initiate, create, extend, or enlarge issues,” the DOJ writes, citing longstanding federal precedent. Because no party to the case has raised compliance with the Act as a live issue, prosecutors argue there is nothing for amici to assist the court with.

The government’s argument goes further: even if the court were inclined to entertain the request, it could not do so constitutionally. –Meidas News

The DOJ further argues that Khanna and Massie lack standing because they were not personally injured by the Trump administration’s failure to release the files. 

Dave Smith couldn’t have said it better:

See the DOJ filing below:

 

Tyler Durden
Sat, 01/17/2026 – 18:05

U-Haul’s Election Lesson

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U-Haul’s Election Lesson

Authored by Matthew Brouillette via RealClearPennsylvania,

Pennsylvania is hemorrhaging residents and resources. And it’s been happening for years. 

The recent U-Haul Growth Index shows that people are voting with their feet against Pennsylvania and other purple and blue states that have become inhospitable as places to live, work, and raise a family. And these out-migrators are heading to redder states that welcome them.

In 2025, Texas, Florida, North Carolina, and Tennessee topped U-Haul’s ‘in-migration’ states, measured by one-way customer moves. 

Meanwhile, Pennsylvania ranked an abysmal 44th. 

The impact of losing friends and families — and their wealth — to other states should be the canary in coal mine for Pennsylvanians getting ready for another election year in 2026. We need to recognize that bad state-level policies are driving tax dollars and our neighbors to more friendly environments.

In fact, the blue-to-red migration is profound across the country. 

Seven of the top 10 growth states have Republican governors, and nine of those states voted for Trump-Vance in the last presidential election. And four of the top five prime destination states for the last three years are solidly red. 

Conversely, of the 10 worst growth states, nine of them have Democrat governors, and all but three of those states voted for Harris-Walz in the last presidential election.

Since 2015, when U-Haul began tracking the migration of residents, Pennsylvania has been in the worst 10 out-migration states in the nation every year but two. 

The result for our state has been disastrous.

According to VoteWithYourFeet, which tracks migration trends, Pennsylvania lost $16,509,051,000 in Aggregated Gross Income (AGI) between 2012-2022. That’s more than $16 billion with a “b”.

Over the same time period, Florida — the biggest beneficiary — gained more than $195 billion in AGI, including $12.3 billion from Pennsylvania. Texas took nearly $1.5 billion in AGI from Pennsylvania on its way to gaining more than $54 billion total. 

This trend of losing people and income to other states is alarming but not surprising. 

It’s no coincidence that three of the top four in-migration states — Texas, Florida, and Tennessee —have no personal income tax at all. Meanwhile all ten of the bottom-ranked states are forced-union states. Economic policies matter.

The only reason Pennsylvania hasn’t become California—the highest out-migration state for the last six years straight — is that Democrats haven’t been able to gain a ‘trifecta’ here as they have in California, where they control both chambers of the legislature as well as the governor’s office. 

As the fifth largest and biggest swing state in the nation, Pennsylvania has elected Democrats in the last three gubernatorial elections, and the state House flipped to a 102-101 Democrat majority in 2022.

But since 1994, Republicans have held the Pennsylvania state Senate and served as a firewall against the bad policies that Democrats have inflicted on the highest out-migration states. 

Now, national Democrats have set their sights on finally breaking the 27-23 Republican majority in the Senate to gain a trifecta. 

By re-electing Josh Shapiro as governor, holding the state House, and flipping just two state Senate seats in 2026, Democrats would gain the trifecta they’ve long sought — locking up Pennsylvania as a solid blue state. And the threat is very real.

Make no mistake: If Democrats succeed, there is zero chance of reversing our outmigration trend. We will become California, Illinois, and New Jersey. We will lose more people, more wealth, and more opportunity. 

Of course, the Left isn’t seeking to capture Pennsylvania so they can impact a U-Haul list. Instead, they realize that if they can control the Keystone State, they can control the direction of the country. States that vote blue at the state level rarely vote red at the national level. 

This is why Democrats have flooded our state elections with millions of dollars from donors across the country over last several election cycles.

With Gov. Shapiro enjoying high approval ratings, we should expect spending from national Democrat special interests to flood our state to help him get the trifecta Democrats haven’t enjoyed in more than four decades.

And if they succeed, we can expect even more U-Haul trucks filled with our friends and families —along with their incomes — to migrate to the states still voting red.

Tyler Durden
Sat, 01/17/2026 – 17:30

Minneapolis “Now Crawling With National Guard” Amid Ongoing Protests

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Minneapolis “Now Crawling With National Guard” Amid Ongoing Protests

Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz mobilized the National Guard to support the Minnesota State Patrol and other local law enforcement during expected weekend protests in downtown Minneapolis.

“We are staged and ready to respond. We are not deployed to city streets at this time,” Minnesota National Guard spokesperson Army Maj. Andrea Tsuchiya told CNN earlier, adding that troops will help provide “traffic support to protect life, preserve property, and support the rights of all Minnesotans to assemble peacefully.”

Citizen journalists on X reported National Guard Humvees staging across multiple parts of the metro area throughout the morning and into the late afternoon.

“Stay safe and stay peaceful today,” Gov. Walz wrote on X earlier today, adding, “Our public safety team has the resources, coordination, and personnel on the ground to maintain public safety and respond if needed. Thanks to local law enforcement for keeping the peace.”

Daily Caller spotted what appears to be a ‘mostly peaceful’ protester…

Protest activity already underway:

Overnight, CBS News reported that the Justice Department is investigating Gov. Walz and Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey over an alleged conspiracy to impede federal immigration agents during deportation operations (read report).

Details remain scant about the specific comments by Walz and Frey that DOJ investigators have focused on, but there is a recent interview in which the mayor acknowledges the existence of a network of left-wing nonprofits organizing pressure campaigns in the city. He stopped just short of identifying which nonprofits were involved.

Related:

*Developing. Check back for updates as protest activity is expected this evening. That said, temperatures in the metro area are currently 9°F, with lows forecast to fall to -3°F. Those conditions are likely to thin the turnout of the Grantifa and purple-haired white liberals, though Antifa and Antifa-aligned militant groups may still attempt to cause chaos.

Tyler Durden
Sat, 01/17/2026 – 16:55

Michael Cohen Turns Against Letitia James And Alvin Bragg

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Michael Cohen Turns Against Letitia James And Alvin Bragg

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

Michael Cohen is back.

The disbarred lawyer has spent a lifetime marketing his curious skill set: a moral and ethical flexibility that allows him to do things that others would find revolting.  A legal thug who threatened students, journalists, and others on behalf of his former client. He then turned against Trump to cut a deal for himself after being criminally charged for fraudulent conduct. He has now turned against the New York prosecutors who sought to rehabilitate him to prosecute Trump.

For full disclosure, I have been a critic of Cohen for years, dating back to his time as a thug for Donald Trump, when I chastised the New York bar for failing to act against him. While the media once despised Cohen, he became a darling of the press when he turned against Trump.

Cohen’s North Star has always been pure, unadulterated self-interest. Neither loyalty nor decency has deterred Cohen from making false statements or serving the interests of his changing patrons.

His conduct as an attorney was a disgrace to the bar for years, as he gamed the system for his own benefit. Michael Cohen was long known as the “fixer” for former President Trump — a legal thug who threatened students, journalists, and others on behalf of his former client.

His signature has been to threaten lawsuits against critics. He even sued Trump and failed.

When his fraudulent business conduct led to criminal charges, it was clear that he was again entertaining best offers. Cohen reinvented himself as a redemptive sinner and received financial support from Trump critics.

Throughout this process and after his conviction, he continued to be accused of lying.

He claimed urgent medical needs for release from prison. Of course, he previously claimed health problems for failing to appear to testify, only to be spotted out on the town for a fancy dinner.

During the Trump trial, Cohen was again accused of lying. He spent two days insisting that he had been a liar but had lied to help former President Donald Trump.

Cohen has lied to Congress, courts, special counsels, the IRS, the banks, and virtually every creature that walks or crawls on the face of the Earth.

Notably, his past convictions for business and tax fraud were not taken in Trump’s interest but in his own.

When he admitted on the stand that he lied during his prior plea agreement, it was to advance his own interests.

Cohen has now continued this pattern of shifting loyalties and turned on New York Attorney General Letitia James and Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg, accusing them of pressuring him to frame his testimony to guarantee Trump’s conviction.

After Trump’s recent court victories and the remanding of his federal case, Cohen is claiming that the Manhattan District Attorney’s Office and the New York Attorney General’s Office “pressured and coerced” him into tailoring testimony:

“I felt pressured and coerced only to provide information and testimony that would satisfy the government’s desire to build the cases against and secure a judgment and convictions against President Trump.”

The posting led some to speculate that Cohen is again marketing his availability to the highest bidder.

Whatever the reason, his statement clearly undermines his former allies as they struggle to preserve what remains of their prior prosecutions.

Cohen remains the personification of the old fable of the scorpion and frog. In the fable,  a scorpion convinced a leery frog to carry him across a river, noting that he could not sting him since they would both drown. Halfway across, the scorpion struck, and the frog asked why he would doom them both. The scorpion replied, “I am sorry, but I couldn’t resist the urge. It’s in my nature.”

James and Bragg just felt that all-too-familiar sting from Michael Cohen.

Tyler Durden
Sat, 01/17/2026 – 16:20

Hegseth Takes “Sledgehammer” To Nation’s Largest DEI Program

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Hegseth Takes “Sledgehammer” To Nation’s Largest DEI Program

The Small Business Administration’s crackdown on Washington’s oldest DEI program, otherwise known as the 8(a) program for “socially disadvantaged” businesses, which has largely amounted to a major vector for fraud, pass-through schemes, and artificially inflated contract costs, has expanded to the Department of War.

Secretary of War Pete Hegseth revealed late Friday on X that his team is “taking a sledgehammer to THE OLDEST DEI program in federal government…a program few people outside of Washington have ever heard about! It is called the 8(a) program.”

“Providing these small businesses with opportunities is a laudable goal but over decades as it happens the 8(a) program has morphed into swamp code words for DEI race based contracting. And here’s the worst part – in many, many instances these socially disadvantaged businesses don’t even do the work!” Hegseth said, adding, “They take a 10%, 20% sometimes 50 percent fee off the top and then pass the contract to giant consulting firms commonly known as Beltway Bandits. For decades this is what they’ve been doing…for years now. This program, 8(a) has been a breeding ground for fraud. And this administration is finally doing something about it.”

Hegseth revealed that the DoW will begin an audit of every small-business sole-source contract over $20 million. He noted that the DoW accounts for the largest share of 8(a) spending by far, roughly 10 times that of any other agency. As a result, the cleanup, he said, will be more complex but will still accomplish the mission because “We have no room in our budget for wasteful DEI contracts that don’t help us win wars. Period. Full stop. Second, we’re doing away with these pass-through schemes.”

Late last year, journalist James O’Keefe blew the lid off 8(a), DC’s best-kept secret. O’Keefe went undercover and captured video of an individual linked to ATI Government Solutions bragging about keeping $65 million of a $100 million contract while subcontracting out the work.

Then O’Keefe’s reporting was picked up by Peter Schweizer, president of the Government Accountability Institute and the investigative journalist who broke the Clinton Cash corruption story, who correctly called months ago about how to end the 8(a) waste, fraud, and abuse once and for all:

  1. Congress needs to investigate the program and subpoena ALL contractors suspected of fraud

  2. Every agency that has 8(a) contracts needs to audit those contracts (start with the Pentagon!

  3. The rules need to be rewritten to get rid of DEI focus, level the playing field, and close the “pass-through” loophole

Related and excellent reporting by RealClear Investigations’ Benjamin Weingarten:

More here:

Ending the swamp’s corruption will transform business around the DC-VA-MD area and provide new opportunities for legitimate small and medium-sized businesses based on merit and cost, rather than DEI-driven corruption.

We’ll end with Peter Schweizer’s lead researcher, Seamus Bruner, who recently told Morning Wire that the 8(a) corruption his team uncovered was just the tip of the iceberg and that “the Pentagon is where a lot of these billions will be hiding out.”

What’s happening is a major, urgent reset of the federal procurement landscape that needs to happen across every agency.

Tyler Durden
Sat, 01/17/2026 – 15:45

The Dam Has Burst In Silver And Gold…So Now What?

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The Dam Has Burst In Silver And Gold…So Now What?

Submitted by QTR’s Fringe Finance

Silver was up another 6% Wednesday morning this past week and traded at $91 an ounce. Whether or not we’re seeing a short squeeze or a blow-off top at this point is moot and irrelevant. To quote the dorky guy from 10 Things I Hate About You, “the sh*t hath hitteth the faneth”.

As I said about a week ago on a Twitter Spaces that I did with my friend Peter Schiff, I just had the feeling that the run-up in silver and gold was not over yet. I echoed these sentiments while talking to Larry Lepard last week, where we covered all things sound money and markets: Larry Lepard: 2026 Predictions For Bitcoin, Gold, Silver and Stocks

For years, most of you have been reading my blog and watching my podcast, where I have constantly talked about the fact that there would be a “blow-off valve” once too much pressure from money printing built up inside the monetary system. In May 2023 I first memorialized this prediction in this article:

The most likely candidates to “blowoff” are precious metals, in my opinion (and maybe even bitcoin).

I often predicted that this “blow-off valve” would be the consequences of money printing showing up in the prices of gold and silver. After all, the consequences of the dirty deed of money printing have to go somewhere, and other than the precious metals, the only other place it shows up nefariously is through rising consumer prices and a lower quality of life for low- and middle-class Americans.

That valve has blown off. So what do I do now, take profit? Here’s my take.

Let’s run quickly through what I see as the bull and bear case for silver and gold, although I’m long-term bullish on both of them for many years to come, so keep that in mind. Right now, the bull case for silver can be made in a couple of ways.

The first is that something unprecedented is obviously happening, and we may be in the midst of, or heading toward, a historic short squeeze that has often been speculated about by us “conspiracy theorists.” There are so many more ounces of paper silver out there than there are physical that wild whipsaws and distortions can definitely occur in the market. We’re seeing one of those. Who knows where the ceiling is?

That bull case is laid out here in this incredible interview with Andy Schectman: Is Silver At $200 Possible?. Andy argued that forced selling can look like a top, but in his framing it’s more like a circuit breaker that temporarily interrupts a squeeze dynamic by flushing out late, leveraged participants. The key, he says, is that this doesn’t address the underlying physical tightness; it just changes who holds the exposure, transferring it from weak hands to deep pockets.

That could be the bridge to a potential $200 silver case. If you believe silver’s move was starting to express a squeeze—whether from positioning, constrained supply, or demand urgency—then margin hikes can delay the “snap,” but they don’t necessarily eliminate it. They can interrupt momentum, reset positioning, and scare speculators away, but if the structural forces remain (physical off-take, restricted supply, institutional accumulation, industrial demand), the pressure can reassert itself once the market digests the margin reset and new capital replaces liquidated positions. In other words: the squeeze can be paused by policy, not solved by it.

Another interesting point that I brought up last week during my Spaces call was that from breakout to peak, silver’s moves have been closer to 10x in the past. This current breakout occurred at around $30 an ounce, so we’re only at about 3x at this point. If that historical trend holds, it would be how one could potentially construct a case for $150 or $200 silver down the road. Also silver’s inflation adjusted all time high is closer to $140/oz., so that’s something to keep an eye on.

For the bear case on the metals, what red flags I’m seeing, and my full analysis of what I’m doing with my metals position, read my full note here.

QTR’s Disclaimer: Please read my full legal disclaimer on my About page hereThis post represents my opinions only. In addition, please understand I am an idiot and often get things wrong and lose money. I may own or transact in any names mentioned in this piece at any time without warning. Contributor posts and aggregated posts have been hand selected by me, have not been fact checked and are the opinions of their authors. They are either submitted to QTR by their author, reprinted under a Creative Commons license with my best effort to uphold what the license asks, or with the permission of the author.

This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any stocks or securities, just my opinions. I often lose money on positions I trade/invest in. I may add any name mentioned in this article and sell any name mentioned in this piece at any time, without further warning. None of this is a solicitation to buy or sell securities. I may or may not own names I write about and are watching. Sometimes I’m bullish without owning things, sometimes I’m bearish and do own things. Just assume my positions could be exactly the opposite of what you think they are just in case. If I’m long I could quickly be short and vice versa. I won’t update my positions. All positions can change immediately as soon as I publish this, with or without notice and at any point I can be long, short or neutral on any position. You are on your own. Do not make decisions based on my blog. I exist on the fringe. If you see numbers and calculations of any sort, assume they are wrong and double check them. I failed Algebra in 8th grade and topped off my high school math accolades by getting a D- in remedial Calculus my senior year, before becoming an English major in college so I could bullshit my way through things easier.

The publisher does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in this page. These are not the opinions of any of my employers, partners, or associates. I did my best to be honest about my disclosures but can’t guarantee I am right; I write these posts after a couple beers sometimes. I edit after my posts are published because I’m impatient and lazy, so if you see a typo, check back in a half hour. Also, I just straight up get shit wrong a lot. I mention it twice because it’s that important.

Tyler Durden
Sat, 01/17/2026 – 14:00

They’re “Playing A Very Dangerous Game”: Trump Slaps 10% Tariff On 8 European Countries Opposing Greenland Deal

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They’re “Playing A Very Dangerous Game”: Trump Slaps 10% Tariff On 8 European Countries Opposing Greenland Deal

“These Countries, who are playing this very dangerous game, have put a level of risk in play that is not tenable or sustainable,” warned President Trump as he escalated his quest to acquire Greenland, threatening multiple European nations with tariffs of up to 25 percent until his purchase of the Danish territory is achieved.

A 10% tariff “on any and all goods sent to the United States of America” will impact Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, and Finland starting Feb. 1, according to a Truth Social post on Jan. 17. .

On June 1st, 2026, the Tariff will be increased to 25%.

The countries are all NATO members.

“This Tariff will be due and payable until such time as a Deal is reached for the Complete and Total purchase of Greenland,” Trump wrote.

Trump has repeatedly claimed that the United States needs Greenland for US “national security.”

We have subsidized Denmark, and all of the Countries of the European Union, and others, for many years by not charging them Tariffs, or any other forms of remuneration.

Now, after Centuries, it is time for Denmark to give backWorld Peace is at stake!

China and Russia want Greenland, and there is not a thing that Denmark can do about it. They currently have two dogsleds as protection, one added recently. Only the United States of America, under PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP, can play in this game, and very successfully, at that! Nobody will touch this sacred piece of Land, especially since the National Security of the United States, and the World at large, is at stake. “

Trump warned the NATO members that they are playing “a very dangerous game”:

“On top of everything else, Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, The United Kingdom, The Netherlands, and Finland have journeyed to Greenland, for purposes unknown.

This is a very dangerous situation for the Safety, Security, and Survival of our Planet. These Countries, who are playing this very dangerous game, have put a level of risk in play that is not tenable or sustainable.

Therefore, it is imperative that, in order to protect Global Peace and Security, strong measures be taken so that this potentially perilous situation end quickly, and without question. “

Meanwhile in Nuuk, the capital of Greenland, thousands of people, including the territory’s prime minister, Jens-Frederik Nielsen, waved Greenlandic flags, chanted slogans and sang traditional Inuit songs under light rain.

Many wore caps with the words “Make America Go Away” – a riff on Trump’s “Make America Great Again” slogan.

President Trump is unmoved by the small protests, noting the timeliness of getting a deal done now:

The United States has been trying to do this transaction for over 150 years. Many Presidents have tried, and for good reason, but Denmark has always refused. 

Now, because of The Golden Dome, and Modern Day Weapons Systems, both Offensive and Defensive, the need to ACQUIRE is especially important.”

He went on to reiterate the specifics of why Greenland is so crucial for national security:

Hundreds of Billions of Dollars are currently being spent on Security Programs having to do with “The Dome,” including for the possible protection of Canada, and this very brilliant, but highly complex system can only work at its maximum potential and efficiency, because of angles, metes, and bounds, if this Land is included in it.

The United States of America is immediately open to negotiation with Denmark and/or any of these Countries that have put so much at risk, despite all that we have done for them, including maximum protection, over so many decades.”

The remarks came as a bipartisan Congressional delegation (led by Chris Coons, a Democratic senator from Delaware) arrived in Denmark to try and de-escalate the situation.

Stephen Miller, an influential presidential adviser, said the president had been “clear” he wanted America to control the island and rejected suggestions it should simply increase its military presence there in response to what Trump claims is a growing military threat from Russia and China.

“They want us to spend hundreds of billions of dollars defending a territory for them that is 25 per cent bigger than Alaska at 100 per cent American expense, but they say while we do this, it belongs 100 per cent to Denmark,” Miller said on Fox News.

Tyler Durden
Sat, 01/17/2026 – 13:25

Dems Need A Serious, Grown-Up Approach To The Border

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Dems Need A Serious, Grown-Up Approach To The Border

Authored by Ruy Teixeira via The Liberal Patriot,

Back in 1956, Elvis Presley recorded his massive hit “Don’t Be Cruel.” With all due respect to the King, this great song has many virtues but providing a guide to policy isn’t one of them. Yet it appears to be dictating Democrats’ current approach to the red-hot immigration issue despite its profound inadequacy in the policy realm.

Consider that Democrats have been unremittingly hostile to Trump’s immigration policy since he began his second term, despite its undisputed success in completely shutting down the southern border to illegal immigration. Instead, Democrats have focused relentlessly on the question of interior enforcement—that is, the activities of the Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency (ICE) aimed at detaining and deporting illegal immigrants currently living within the United States. The general approach has been to portray all ICE actions as essentially illegitimate, arbitrary and, well, cruel.

Conspicuously lacking has been any recognition that, in fact, interior enforcement against illegal immigration is an entirely legitimate law enforcement operation and that ICE is the government agency charged with these legitimate activities. Therefore, what ICE does is presumptively legitimate not illegitimate.

Democratic treatment of ICE has turned this on its head; their activities are presumptively viewed as illegitimate and if there are any legitimate ICE actions, Democrats are being mighty quiet about it. Instead, characterizations of ICE as a modern-day Gestapo, Nazis, an occupying force, etc have become so common as to be unremarkable. This attitude has led Democrats down a path where their policy on interior enforcement against illegal immigration seems to amount to: “Don’t do it! Don’t be cruel!

Of course, there is much not to like about how ICE has gone about their business, all of which has been copiously documented. This has been red meat to those sectors of blue America and their political representatives whose revealed preference is not to deport anyone. Think about those ubiquitous “In This House, We Believe” signs in liberal professional-class neighborhoods.

The ICE/interior enforcement issue hits the Daily Double for the “In This House, We Believe” crowd. No human is illegal. Check. Kindness is everything. Check. These may be utterly useless as guides to effective, sustainable immigration policy but they sure do get the juices flowing.

That’s why, from Los Angles to Minneapolis, Democratic activists have felt completely justified in interfering with ICE activities and Democratic politicians in refusing to cooperate with a duly constituted federal law enforcement agency. And that’s why, especially with the tragic recent death of Renee Good, calls of “Abolish ICE!” are beginning to ring out across wide sectors of the Democratic Party. There is no good ICE, only bad ICE. There is no legitimate ICE, only illegitimate ICE.

This is the logical terminus of an attitude that starts with no human being is illegal and kindness is everything. Since ICE’s remit is that illegal immigrants are, in fact, illegal and that the law must be followed, even if the outcome is not particularly kind, it only makes sense to get rid of the agency.

This is a terrible idea in so many different ways. As a very useful new memo from the reform Democratic group Searchlight points out:

[S]aying you want to “Abolish ICE”…means that you support getting rid of the agency responsible for enforcing immigration and customs laws, creating a lawless system where people who enter the country illegally can stay here indefinitely, leaving no agency charged with finding and removing them. This will, inevitably, incentivize others to come to the United States illegally. “Abolish ICE” is not some proxy for more humane immigration enforcement, or to change ICE’s culture to adhere to due process, or to impose accountability on rogue officers. It’s advocating for an extreme.

Unless you truly believe that the United States should not have an agency that enforces immigration and customs laws within our borders, and you want to increase illegal immigration, you should not say you want to abolish ICE…[W]e will always need a federal agency charged with deporting people who are in the United States illegally.

That’s clearly correct as a matter of policy. Democrats need to reflect that in how they talk about ICE or the momentum will continue to shift toward those in the party who simply want to get rid of the agency entirely.

And that would be a disaster. The reasonable—and popular—desire to reform ICE practices would inevitably be subsumed in a contentious debate about abolishing the agency. This is not likely to turn out well for the Democrats despite the solid basis in public opinion for some reform and pullback of ICE activities. Abolishing ICE will likely never be generally popular, despite its sky-high popularity with Democrats where there has been a recent spike in support.

Instead, as the Searchlight memo points out, Democrats will be setting themselves up for a rerun of the “Defund the Police” debacle, also driven by a viral incident (and also in Minneapolis!). A maximalist demand like “Abolish ICE” will serve only to signal a lack of Democratic commitment to immigration enforcement, just as defund the police signaled a lack of Democratic commitment to public safety. This is highly undesirable both for the Democrats politically and for the general cause of reforming ICE practices.

A further lesson from the recent past is provided by the Democratic reaction to Trump’s border crackdowns in his first administration. Seizing on some well-publicized excesses, Democrats pilloried Trump for being cruel and inhumane and promised to be different. And they were! They were kind and humane—and also completely ineffective at controlling the border and preventing abuse of the asylum system once they got back in power, producing the huge wave of illegal and irregular immigration that discredited the Democrats and helped Trump win the 2024 election. “Don’t be cruel” didn’t work out so well then and it won’t work out so well now, either in or out of power.

Democrats instead need to get beyond mindless slogans like “Abolish ICE” and blanket opposition to everything ICE does and embrace what I have termed immigration realism. That approach means taking on board the following realities of immigration into this rich country of ours:

  1. Many more people want to come to a rich country like the United States than an orderly immigration system can allow.

  2. Therefore, many people are willing to break the laws of our country to gain entry.

  3. If you do not enforce the law, you will get more law-breakers and therefore more illegal immigrants.

  4. If you provide procedural loopholes to gain entry into the country (e.g., by claiming asylum), many people will abuse these loopholes.

  5. Once these illegal and irregular immigrants gain entry to the country, they will seek to stay indefinitely regardless of their immigration status.

  6. If interior immigration enforcement is lax, such that these illegal and irregular immigrants do mostly get to stay forever, that provides a tremendous incentive for others to try to gain entry to the country via the same means.

  7. If you provide benefits and dispensations to all immigrants in the country, regardless of their immigration status, this further incentivizes aspiring immigrants to gain entry to the country by any means necessary.

  8. Tolerance of flagrant law-breaking on a mass scale contributes to a sense of social disorder and loss of control among a country’s citizens, who believe a nation’s borders are meaningful and that the welfare of a nation’s citizens should come first.

  9. There is, in fact, such a thing as too much immigration, particularly low-skill immigration, and negative effects on communities and workers are real, not just in the imaginations of xenophobes.

  1. If more immigration is desired by parties or policymakers, from whichever countries and at whatever skill levels, then immigration should be regular, legal immigration and approved by the American people through the democratic process. Backdooring mass immigration over the wishes of voters because it is “kind” or “reflects our values” or is deemed “economically necessary” leads inevitably to backlash. Wheelbarrows full of econometric studies on immigration’s aggregate benefits will not save you.

Obviously, the current Democratic vogue for treating all ICE activities as illegitimate and susceptibility to dumb maximalist slogans like “Abolish ICE” points them in precisely the wrong direction for dealing with the thorny and complex realities of the immigration issue. They’re just setting themselves up for future failure.

In short, it’s time to stop coddling the “In This House, We Believe” crowd and adopt a serious, grown-up approach to immigration and immigrants. “Don’t Be Cruel” isn’t gonna cut it.

Tyler Durden
Sat, 01/17/2026 – 12:50