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Bank of America Slides Despite Top, Bottom Line Beat As Underwriting, FICC Miss

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Bank of America Slides Despite Top, Bottom Line Beat As Underwriting, FICC Miss

After some rather soggy earnings from JPM yesterday, in which the largest US bank disappointed with declining underwriting fees, and spooked markets with a jump in loan loss reserves on its Apple credit card deal as well as downbeat commentary from Jamie Dimon on what a credit card cap would mean for the bank, moments ago Bank of America reported Q4 results which at first glance were stronger, and sent its stock higher premarket, but as analysts read between the lines and noticed the weak parts of the report (underwriting fees, FICC miss), BofA stock has since sunk 2% in the premarket.

Here are the highlights: BofA Q4 net interest income beat expectations; $15.75 bn versus $15.48 bn expected by Bloomberg consensus. In the Q4 earnings report, total revenue (net of interest expense) for Q4 was $28.4 bn, slightly lower than Q3’s $29 bn but above Bloomberg expectations of $27.76 bn, similar to JPMorgan’s strong markets beat, as BofA traders reaped the benefits of a volatile Q4 for markets. Revenue from equity trading rose 23% to $2.02 billion in the final three months of the year, beating estimates of $1.9 billion. That helped give Bank of America earnings of 98 cents a share, just barely topping analysts’ estimates of 96 cents. Net income for the fourth quarter was $7.6bn, up 12% YoY, but down 8% from the $8.3bn in Q3. That was the good news. The bad news was an unexpected miss in the bank’s all important, high-margin FICC group, coupled with a miss across both debt and equity underwriting.

Here is a snapshot of what BofA reported in Q4:

  • EPS $0.98, up 18% YoY from $0.83, beating estimates of $0.96
  • Revenue net of interest expense $28.37 billion, up 7% YoY from $26.5 billion, beating estimate $27.78 billion; reflecting higher net interest income (NII), asset management fees, and sales and trading revenue
    • Net interest income $15.75 billion, beating estimate $15.48 billion 
      • Net interest income FTE $15.92 billion, +9.7% y/y, analysts had expected a 7.8% increase for NII
    • Trading revenue excluding DVA $4.53 billion, beating estimate $4.33 billion
    • FICC trading revenue excluding DVA $2.52 billion, missing estimate $2.62 billion
    • Equities trading revenue excluding DVA $2.02 billion, beating estimate $1.89 billion
    • Investment banking revenue $1.67 billion, beating estimate $1.66 billion
      • Advisory fees $590 million, beating estimate $495.3 million
      • Debt underwriting rev. $810 million, missing estimate $864 million
      • Equity underwriting rev. $297 million, missing estimate $301 million
    • Wealth & investment management total revenue $6.62 billion, beating estimate $6.45 billion

Here are the highlights visually:

BofA’s provision for credit losses of $1.3B in 4Q25 vs. $1.3B in 3Q25 and $1.5B in 4Q24, and below estimates of $1.48BN 

  • Net charge-offs (NCOs) of $1.29B declined $0.1B from 3Q25 and $0.2B from 4Q24 and below estimates of $1.44BN

“With consumers and businesses proving resilient, as well as the regulatory environment and tax and trade policies coming into sharper focus, we expect further economic growth in the year ahead,” CEO Brian Moynihan said in the press release. “While any number of risks continue, we are bullish on the US economy in 2026.”

The bank’s all important net interest income rose $0.5BN from Q3 to $15.9BN, “driven by higher NII related to Global Markets (GM) activity, higher deposit and loan balances, and fixed-rate asset repricing, partially offset by the impact of lower interest rates.” The Net Interest yield of 2.08% rose 7bps sequentially, beating estimates of 2.04%, and was the highest in years. Blended cash and securities yield of 3.04% vs. total deposit rate paid of 1.63%.

BofA’s Q3 efficiency ratio was 61.5% down from 63.4% y/y as noninterest expenses rose to $17.44 billion, but was below estimates of $17.47 billion. Compensation expenses $10.60 billion, estimate $10.55 billion

Taking a closer look at the bank’s balance sheet, we find ample liquidity: 

  • Average Global Liquidity Sources of $975B
  • CET1 capital of $201B decreased $1B from 3Q25
  • CET1 ratio of 11.4%4 vs. 11.6% in 3Q25; well above regulatory minimum
  • Efficiency ratio 61.5% vs. 63.4% y/y
  • Paid $2.1B in common dividends and repurchased $6.3B of common stock
  • Basel III common equity Tier 1 ratio fully phased-in, advanced approach 12.8%, estimate 13%
    • Standardized CET1 ratio 11.4%, estimate 11.5%

Total deposits of $2.02TN increased $55B, or 3%, below estimates of $2.03TN

Total loans and leases of $1.19T increased $90B, or 8%, above estimates of $1.18TN

Turning to the all important Markets/Banking division, we find that just like JPM, markets revenue was ok, with Equities beating/FICC missedm while investment banking also saw underwriting weakness. Here are the details:

  • Total Markets Revenue of $5.3B increased 10% YoY, driven by higher sales and trading revenue
    • Trading revenue excluding DVA $4.53 billion, beating estimate $4.33 billion
    • FICC trading revenue excluding DVA $2.52 billion, missing estimate $2.62 billion, and was “driven by improved performance in macro products”
    • Equities trading revenue excluding DVA $2.02 billion, beating estimate $1.89 billion, and was “driven by increased client activity”
  • Noninterest expense of $3.9B increased 11% vs. 4Q24, driven by higher revenue-related expenses and investments in the business, including people and technology

But while Markets was ok, the same weakness JPM observed in Investment Banking was also palpable at BofA, where advisory fees came in strong, but were offset by very poor debt and equity underwriting environment.

  • Investment banking revenue $1.67 billion, beating estimate $1.66 billion
    • Advisory fees $590 million, beating estimate $495.3 million
    • Debt underwriting rev. $810 million, missing estimate $864 million
    • Equity underwriting rev. $297 million, missing estimate $301 million
  • Noninterest expense of $3.1B increased 6% vs. 4Q, driven by investments in the business, including people and technology

Looking ahead, the bank’s 2026 outlook was solid, just like JPM, with the bank expecting NII to grow 5-7%, a solid increase but a slowdown from the 10% YoY increase in Q4. The bank also expects to deliver 200bps of operating leverage in 2026, although costs will be elevated in Q1. 

Bank of America’s results offer a further look at how the biggest US banks fared during the first year of Trump’s return to office. On Tuesday, JPMorgan reported earnings that beat analysts’ estimates, with trading activity boosting results, despite an unexpected decline in investment-banking fees, similar to BofA. The market was not impressed and the stock tumbled 4%, its worst post-earnings reaction since Q1 2024. 

That said, execs expect deals to pick up in 2026, with a strong pipeline and corporate clients who pushed off activity coming back to the market. 

Shares of Charlotte, North Carolina-based Bank of America, slumped 1% in premarket trading as algos realized read the fine print below the superficial beat. BofA had gained 19% in the 12 months through Tuesday, more than the 12% increase in the S&P 500 Financials Index.

BofA’s full investor presentation can be found herepdf link.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 01/14/2026 – 08:26

Ukraine Blocks Polymarket, Classifies Prediction Markets As Gambling

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Ukraine Blocks Polymarket, Classifies Prediction Markets As Gambling

Authored by Amin Haqshanas via CoinTelegraph.com,

Ukraine has blocked access to the prediction market platform Polymarket, classifying its activities as unlicensed gambling under national law.

The decision was issued by the National Commission for the Regulation of Electronic Communications (NCEC) on Dec. 10, 2025, under Resolution No. 695. The ruling requires internet service providers to restrict access to online resources that organize, conduct or facilitate gambling without a valid license.

As part of the enforcement, the domain polymarket.com has been added to Ukraine’s public register of blocked websites, effectively cutting off local access to the platform, local news outlets reported on Monday.

Polymarket differentiates itself from traditional betting sites by allowing users to buy and sell shares tied to the outcome of real-world events, with prices reflecting market-implied probabilities, rather than offering fixed odds.

Ukraine slams Polymarket over war-related bets

The ban on Polymarket comes as Ukrainian authorities have criticized the platform for facilitating bets on geopolitical events linked to Russia’s invasion.

Polymarket is restricted across 33 other countries, including France, Germany, the United Kingdom, Italy, Poland, Belgium, Iran, Singapore, Iraq, North Korea, Thailand, Taiwan and Australia.

Polymarket already blocks some regions in Ukraine. Source: Polymarket

Founded in 2020 by Shane Coplan, Polymarket has grown into one of the most prominent prediction platforms globally, with an estimated valuation of $8 billion. All bets on Polymarket are placed using the USDC  stablecoin on the Polygon blockchain, making transactions and settlements publicly verifiable.

US lawmaker looks to ban insider trading on prediction markets

As Cointelegraph recently reported, US Representative Ritchie Torres is preparing legislation that would restrict insider trading on prediction markets, following scrutiny over a highly profitable bet linked to the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.

The proposed measure, known as the Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act of 2026, would bar federal lawmakers, political appointees and executive branch employees from trading contracts tied to political or policy outcomes when they possess nonpublic information gained through their official roles.

Last week, Tennessee’s sports betting regulator also ordered Kalshi, Polymarket and Crypto.com to halt the offering of sports event contracts to residents of the state.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 01/14/2026 – 05:00

“Spy Center”: China Plans Secret Room Near Sensitive Cables In London Mega Embassy

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“Spy Center”: China Plans Secret Room Near Sensitive Cables In London Mega Embassy

Chinese officials plan to construct a concealed underground chamber adjacent to some of Britain’s most sensitive communications infrastructure as part of their proposed new “super embassy” in London, according to planning documents reviewed by The Telegraph.

Illustration via The Telegraph

The chamber forms part of an extensive subterranean complex comprising 208 rooms beneath the embassy site at the former Royal Mint.

The Telegraph reports:

The drawings show that a single concealed chamber will sit directly alongside fibre-optic cables transmitting financial data to the City of London, as well as email and messaging traffic for millions of internet users.

The same hidden room is fitted with hot-air extraction systems, possibly suggesting the installation of heat-generating equipment such as advanced computers used for espionage. The plans also show that China intends to demolish and rebuild the outer basement wall of the chamber, directly beside the fibre-optic cables.

The revelations have prompted sharp criticism from senior UK Conservative figures, including Alicia Kearns, the shadow national security minister, who described approving the plans as providing “a launchpad for economic warfare at the heart of the central nervous system of our critical national infrastructure”.

Illustration via The Telegraph

The unredacted plans reveal a concealed room running immediately alongside the fibre-optic cables critical to the City and Canary Wharf. Telegraph readers don’t need me to spell out the obvious threats posed, nor China’s subterfuge – so why does the Labour Government?” Ms. Kearns told the newspaper.

Illustration via The Telegraph

The Telegraph further reports on why the proximity to the cables is cause for national security concerns:

Carrying signals bearing the innermost financial secrets of the British economy, the cables stretch between the Telehouse group of data centres in Docklands and other centres around the capital. Linked together, these form the core of the London Internet Exchange (Linx). Beyond London, they connect to Atlantic cables linking to the US.

Linx is one of the biggest internet exchange points in the world, handling vast volumes of data spanning everything from financial transactions to instant messages and emails.Its cables carry the financial transaction data relied upon by banks to update withdrawals and deposits, such as ordinary people’s salary packets and payments for goods bought online.

Professor Alan Woodward, a security expert at the University of Surrey, told The Telegraph that China’s plans pose a “red flag.”

“There’s a long history of cable-tapping by East and West alike. Anyone who can do it has done it,” Woodward said. “Espionage isn’t just about state secrets. Economic intelligence is central to the mission of foreign intelligence services.”

“If I were in their shoes, having those cables on my doorstep would be an enormous temptation,” he added.

Dominic Cummings, who served as then-British Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s chief aide, said MI5 warned him China was “trying to build a spy centre underneath the embassy”.

Illustration via The Telegraph

Nonetheless, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer is reportedly expected to approve the embassy construction plans ahead of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s high-stakes visit to Britain.

Just bloody brilliant, mate!

Tyler Durden
Wed, 01/14/2026 – 04:15

West Africa Under Jihadist Threat: Sahel States Surrendering Sovereignty To Islamic Terrorist Groups

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West Africa Under Jihadist Threat: Sahel States Surrendering Sovereignty To Islamic Terrorist Groups

Authored by Lawrence Franklin vi The Gatestone Institute,

Al-Qaeda’s branch in Africa’s Sahel region has been laying siege to Mali’s capital city, as well as other areas of the country. The Algerian-based Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) and its affiliated Jama’a Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin (Support Group for Islam and Muslims, JNIM) are cutting a wide swath of terrorist operations across West Africa’s Sahel region. This coalition of Jihadist groups now threatens the sovereignty of Mali and several other Sahelian states.

Islamist operatives now control all the main routes in and out of Bamako, Mali’s capital city, cutting it off from fuel, food, and friendly neighbors. JNIM militants have also targeted Mali’s transport, communications, educational network, and economic infrastructure in rural regions. Some towns in Mali are negotiating deals with Jihadist groups to secure some semblance of liberty and save their lives by agreeing to adopt Islamic Sharia law and pay “protection taxes” (jizyah) to Islamic officials.

Burkina Faso and Niger, two other Sahel states, landlocked like Mali, are also under severe pressure by the al-Qaeda affiliated JNIM to surrender their sovereignty to hardcore Sunni Islamic extremists. All three countries, once colonies of France’s West African Empire, have in the past five years expelled French troops who had been assisting the host governments. All three are governed by non-democratic military juntas with little popular support, and thus have been unable to deal effectively with their common Jihadist threat.

These military regimes, which have formed the “Alliance of Sahel States,” brought in mercenaries from Russia’s Wagner Group and Africa Corps to replace French troops. Yet the Russians have been failing in their mission to shore up the juntas. Moscow’s mercenaries suffered a major defeat in July 2024, near Mali’s border with Algeria, at the hands of Tuareg rebels, who are also allied with the Al-Qaeda-linked Jihadists. Reportedly, dozens of Russian troops were killed during an ambush that occurred during a desert sandstorm.

Jihadist recruits in the Sahel are primarily ethnically Tuareg, some of whom desire to establish an independent state in what is now northern Mali. The region’s other minorities, particularly in Mali, are also attracted to Islamist terrorist groups, including semi-nomadic Fulani tribesmen who populate the semi-deserts of the Sahel. Criminal networks have similarly thrown their lot in with the Jihadists, making money from kidnap ransoms and the sale of purloined gold shavings from Sahelian mines.

The Jihadist threat is not limited to the Sahel, but exists in the entirety of West Africa. For example, JNIM attacks now include assaults on the coastal African countries of Togo and Benin. There is even a report of a JNIM-sponsored foray across the border into Northwest Nigeria.

While most of the terrorist violence can be attributed to al-Qaeda-affiliated groups, Islamic State militants are also a predatory agent in the region. Fortunately, Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State jihadists also clash against one another.

Unless there is some urgent military assistance from the West, the success of the terrorists will continue. Logistical requirements of such external-based military aid would probably necessitate the establishment of a rescue corridor inside the territory of Ghana or the Ivory Coast. Alternatively, the juntas may be able to strike a temporary deal with either the Al-Qaeda or Islamic State proxies over sharing governmental powers — further delegitimizing the junta regimes and deteriorating the future of West Africa. Unless there is an immediate Western intervention, one or more of these military regimes is likely to suffer a terrorist takeover in 2026.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 01/14/2026 – 03:30

Venezuela Begins Gradual Release Of Imprisoned Americans Post-Maduro

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Venezuela Begins Gradual Release Of Imprisoned Americans Post-Maduro

After US forces on January 3rd helicoptered into Caracas as Navy warships and aircraft bombed Venezuelan territory, and seemingly effortlessly nabbed President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, one wonders what took so long?

“The Venezuela government has started releasing prisoners with US citizenship, people with knowledge of the situation said,” Bloomberg reports Tuesday evening. “The authorities on Tuesday released at least one US citizen who already left the country, the people said, declining to identify the individual for security reasons.”

via AP

There is a planned for gradual release of American prisoners, of which there are not believed to be many. 

Just ahead of the Trump-ordered military strikes and brief invasion, various reports indicated at least 5 Americans were being held, including a New York man who only recently went missing after entering Venezuela (it’s not known whether he had a visa or not). 

As The NY Post detailed:

At least five Americans, including a New Yorker, are being detained in Venezuela following the Trump administration’s latest military and economic pressure campaign against Caracas, according to a new report.

James Luckey-Lange, 28, of Staten Island, is among the recently US citizens imprisoned in Venezuela, with the New Yorker deemed to be wrongfully detainedofficials told the New York Times.

Luckey-Lange, whose family reported him missing earlier this month, disappeared soon after entering Venezuela’s border as part of a long trip across Latin America that was inspired by the death of his mother, musician Diane Luckey.

The latest reports after Maduro’s ouster indicate he’s still in the custody of the country’s federal police, and that the new administration of acting President Delcy Rodríguez has not released him. Lucky-Lange’s family is pleading for his release, and has appealed to both Trump and the Rodríguez government.

Trump has controversially praised the Rodríguez government, saying last week in a Fox interview: “they’ve been great. … Everything we’ve wanted, they’ve given us.”

However, Americans deemed wrongfully detained are still apparently in custody. Last week some 100 political prisoners of Venezuelan as well as foreign nationalities were let go.

“Venezuela released a number of imprisoned high-profile opposition figures, activists and journalists — both citizens and foreigners — Thursday in what the government described as a gesture to ‘seek peace’ less than a week after former President Nicolás Maduro was captured by U.S. forces to face drug-trafficking charges,” The Associated Press indicated.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 01/14/2026 – 02:45

In 2025, Germany Saw Bankruptcies Hit 20-Year High

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In 2025, Germany Saw Bankruptcies Hit 20-Year High

Via Remix News,

The latest economic figures for Berlin are dramatic, revealing that 2025 saw more companies file for bankruptcy than at any point in the last two decades, all despite a promised economic turnaround from the Christian Democrat (CDU) government.

The wave of insolvencies grew significantly toward the end of the year, affecting the lives of thousands of employees. According to the Leibniz Institute for Economic Research Halle, the annual total reached a historically high 17,604 bankruptcies. This translates to an average of 48 partnerships and corporations going out of business every day in Germany, according to Bild newspaper.

“Even in the wake of the major financial crisis in 2009, the number was around 5 percent lower,” the institute explained.

December was particularly severe, with 1,519 insolvency applications filed. This figure was 75 percent higher than the average for December between 2016 and 2019, prior to the pandemic.

Jonas Eckhardt, an economic expert from the transformation consultancy Falkensteg, told Bild that “the German economy is no longer just struggling with headaches. She’s got a fever. That won’t change anytime soon.“

Professor Dr. Steffen Müller, Head of IWH Insolvency Research, observed that the “increase was broad and no one was spared, though sectors like hospitality, construction, and real estate suffered particularly heavily.”

He noted that the interest rate increase at the end of 2022 has put a stop to some of the plans in those industries.

Bild goes on to cite a number of companies hit with bankruptcies.

In Saxony, a sausage company dismissed its entire staff, while the Leifert bakery chain in Lower Saxony affected 220 employees with its insolvency. Other large bakeries like Hansen Mürwik also filed for bankruptcy, impacting 145 workers.

Large corporations are also struggling. A survey by Falkensteg found that 471 companies with annual sales exceeding 10 million euros filed for insolvency, a 25 percent increase over the previous year. Since 2021, these major insolvencies have nearly tripled.

Less than a week ago, Chancellor Friedrich Merz stated that parts of the German economy are in a “very critical state.” In the article from Bloomberg, it notes that while Merz did not specify which sectors, the car industry is seen as especially hard hit. This is due in large part to Chinese competition slowly crushing German companies, a topic Remix News has written extensively on.

While Müller points out that insolvency can be a market adjustment that makes room for future-proof companies, many businesses continue to struggle for survival. Jonas Eckhardt emphasized to Bild that for many medium-sized companies, the situation is no longer just an economic downturn but a question of survival. Experts do not anticipate a turnaround in 2026 and instead expect a further increase in bankruptcies among large companies.

Germany is not the only country struggling in Europe. Last month, French President Emmanuel Macron went to China essentially to beg for help, saying, according to Politico, that “European industry is facing a ‘life or death’ moment.”

“I am trying to explain to the Chinese that their trade surplus is untenable and that they are killing their own customers, mainly by not importing much from us,” Macron said, according to Politico.

Now, after Europeans complained about Trump issuing tariffs against China and Europe, Europe is considering pursuing the same tactic. At least, that is the threat Macron just issued China if the country does not refrain from relentlessly outcompeting the EU on trade, exports, and innovation.

Following the meeting in China, notably, no major business deals were signed, and on most key points, analysts say Macron walked away mostly empty-handed in regard to the major issues.

Remarkably, China almost completely rejected mass immigration and has about as many foreigners in the country as just one German city, Berlin.

Read more here…

Tyler Durden
Wed, 01/14/2026 – 02:00

The Forgotten Man

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The Forgotten Man

Authored by Be Water,

The 2008 Crisis Never Ended

Do you wish to know [when] that day is coming? Watch money. Money is the barometer of a society’s virtue. When you see that [commerce is conducted], not by consent, but by compulsion—when you see that in order to produce, you need to obtain permission from men who produce nothing—when you see that money is flowing to those who deal, not in goods, but in favors—when you see that men get richer by graft and by pull than by work, and your laws don’t protect you against them, but protect them against you–when you see corruption being rewarded and honesty becoming a self-sacrifice—[then] you may know [that day has arrived]… 

Francisco d’Anconia

No Country For Young Men

For most of America, the headlines trumpeting a “strong economy” and “stocks at record highs” land like a cruel joke. Michael W. Green’s recent series My Life Is A Lie attempted to quantify the economic devastation felt by the majority of the country these many years. This carnage has been sanctified by our technocrats—an Aztec priesthood invoking sacred economic statistics as celestial omens to justify the ritual sacrifice of society on the altars of GDP and the S&P 500.

Green, an investment industry insider, gave voice to the Forgotten Man:

Predictably, the priesthood declared heresy. Economistsjournaliststhought leadersthink tanks, and other fellow travelers circled the wagons, tearing apart Green’s numbers, splitting hairs, and nitpicking his methodology.

That is a grave mistake.

Fiddling While Rome Burns

How can you expect a man who’s warm to understand a man who’s cold?

—One Day in the Life of Ivan Denisovich, Alexander Solzhenitsyn

This sort of wonkish debate—whether the poverty line is $30k or $140k, whether CPI is 2% or 4%—exemplifies the scientism enabling our national dissolution: the religious belief that the statistical map is more real than the economic territory. Perhaps such effete technocratic sophistry could be tolerated—even indulged—were the body politic unified. But it is a fatal conceit in such a Balkanized powder keg of a nation.

Into this highly combustible environment, Green’s essays landed like an errant spark. If nothing else, Green forced a long-overdue reckoning with a reality that the credentialed class has steadfastly refused to acknowledge: that they themselves have spent decades drowning the American Dream in a flood of ruinous policy, even as they now insist that the water level is perfectly fine and that Americans are simply bad swimmers.

Such an acknowledgment, however, would be tantamount to confessing that their entire worldview—the long Postwar Consensus—rests on a meticulously constructed lie. That the intellectual facade of modern finance and economicsthe modern monetary system and central banking, fiscal and monetary policy, financialization, globalism—all of it—has strip-mined the nation and fracked the American bedrock, leaving behind a slag heap of poverty, misery, and rage in place of the prosperity it promised.

That their own lives have been a lie.

From Picket Fences To Shoebox Micro-Apartments

The party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command.

—Winston Smith

Whether Green’s numbers withstand academic scrutiny is altogether beside the point. His essays struck such a visceral nerve because Green—as someone with institutional investment credentials—put numbers to what millions have experienced firsthand for decades. And he did so at precisely the moment when their long-simmering rage is boiling over.

And then the Minnesota headlines broke.

If Green’s essays were a stray spark drifting toward the powder keg, these revelations of fraud represented a blazing torch hurled straight at it. Billions have been bled from the American middle class—those who can barely afford their own children—to bankroll the imaginary children of fraudsters.

But the scale of the plunder extends far beyond one state:

The populace’s rage, therefore, springs from a well far deeper than Green’s economic statistics—or any one else’s, for that matter—could ever fully plumb. Understanding this fury—and its implications for both our civilization and our portfolios—requires returning to an existential question we posed five years ago: how did we devolve from the society depicted in the New Yorker’s 1957 Christmas cover (left) to that depicted in its 2020 Christmas cover (right)?

Source: The New Yorker

These two contrasting images—set six decades apart—bear witness to a birthright betrayal so absolute that it defies measurement. The transformation seems inconceivable: in the course of a single lifetime, how did the most prosperous civilization in history come to cannibalize its children’s futures?

Asked differently, how could prior generations buy houses, raise families, and afford healthcare on a single income—and then retire—while younger generations drown in debt, face bleak job prospects, are cursed to rent forever, risk financial ruin from hospital visits, and accumulate pets rather than rear children?

Why do so many feel worse off than even a decade ago, despite record asset prices and strong GDP growth? And why has this malignancy metastasized simultaneously throughout the Western world—the US, Europe, Canada, Australia?

The answers won’t be found in economic textbooks, models, and policy papers that led us here in the first place. Nor will they emerge from the clerisy who authored them:

But answer these questions, and the chaos of our age suddenly resolves into clarity: not only the financial stress, but the seething rage erupting across Western nations worldwide. The collapse not merely of institutional trust, but of societal trust writ large. The rise of populism and politically motivated violence. The pervasive sense that the very fabric of civilization—if not reality itself—is being torn apart at the seams. The gnawing feeling shared by ordinary people that they are struggling to survive a precarious interlude before some major cataclysm strikes.

Mr. Market’s Schizophrenic Break Of 2020

The madness of the 2020-2021 COVID era was apocalyptic—literally a lifting of the veil: governments induced a global economic coma yet asset prices—the economy’s vital signs—registered euphoric highs. It was as if a comatose patient’s monitors indicated an Olympic athlete in peak condition—the clearest illustration of what Green is now attempting to quantify.

Meme stocks, fake currencies, and bankrupt companies—indeed all assets—went parabolic even as the economy flatlined.

We call this period Mr. Market’s Schizophrenic Break, the absurdity of which was perhaps best encapsulated by David Portnoy (aka “Davey Day Trader”) picking stocks out of a scrabble bag on Twitter and CNBC—a strategy that consistently worked!

Source: @stoolpresidente

Source: @EnronChairman

The Financial Matrix

Portnoy himself saw through this surreal facade during the height of the COVID market mania:

The good news is I know it’s rigged. The government is [saying] don’t worry we’re just gonna create a trillion-billion-zillion dollars. It’s fantasy land. It’s Schrute Bucks [fake money from a popular TV show]. It’s the worst coronavirus day in a while and the government is saying don’t worry about it cause we’re gonna print a quadrillion dollars and the market sky rockets. The stock market is disconnected from reality. The whole thing is a pyramid scheme. We’re living in the Matrix.

Portnoy wasn’t merely ranting, however—he had unwittingly laid bare the central economic mystery of our age, one that somehow eluded our credentialed classes: that the numbers and charts streaming across Bloomberg terminals had become utterly divorced from the reality of everyday life.

In this inverted Bizarro World, bankruptcy was bullish, currencies invented as a joke were enormously valuable, and picking stocks from a Scrabble bag was a wise investment strategy.

With a degenerate gambler’s uncanny intuition for detecting rigged games, Portnoy had stumbled onto a profound truth: that financial reality had somehow been replaced with an elaborate, videogame-like simulation—the Financial Matrix. This self-contained universe was governed by its own laws and utterly indifferent to the world it was supposed to represent.

The 2020-2021 COVID madness represented the reductio ad absurdum toward which the entire post-War policy consensus had been hurtling—the culmination of decades of pathology that had metastasized to such absurd extremes that it became impossible to ignore even for laymen like Portnoy and his “degen” followers.

But while Portnoy had correctly identified the symptoms, he had not diagnosed the underlying disease. Five years ago this month—amidst the heights of the COVID market mania—we set out to identify the cancer at the heart of the global financial system, to understand how virtual reality had replaced reality, and to assess the implications for investing.

The result was The Sorcerer’s Apprentice & The Man Who Broke The MarketsIn Sorcerer, we traced the vectors of metastasis—monetary, memetic, algorithmic—that had spread through the global financial system, mapping the ways this cancer would ultimately upend markets, economies, and societies worldwide.

We originally published Sorcerer privately in January 2021. However, as the pathologies we diagnosed then have only intensified in the interim, we felt compelled to expand and update the work for a public audience. This growing urgency also explains why Green’s recent series resonates so deeply now. The economic cancer we diagnosed in late 2020—having metastasized invisibly for decades, revealing itself only in occasional paroxysms, as in 2008—finally became impossible to ignore when the COVID policy response devoured economic reality itself in 2020-2021, and then in 2022 ignited the worst inflation in five decades.

The Day Is Come

The COVID years—and beyond—mark the fulfillment of Francisco d’Anconia’s prophecy. He exhorted us to watch the money—to read it as the barometer of a society’s virtue. He warned of the day when ‘money is flowing to those who deal, not in goods, but in favors’ and when ‘men get richer by graft and by pull than by work.’

Look around. That day is not coming; rather it is already here. Green’s essays and recent news headlines merely crystallized the gnawing suspicion that has haunted the American subconscious since at least the 2008 Crisis: that for decades the productive American citizen has been taxed and inflated into serfdom—forced to finance their own dispossession and the demolition of their way of life. Americans have been reduced to human batteries whose life force powers the Financial Matrix.

It is even now dawning on the citizenry that the “strong economy” and “record-setting stock market” are merely mirages conjured by the Financial Matrix—phantom metrics generated by and for the simulation. Meanwhile, in the ‘desert of the real,’ the productive have been treated as enemies, and “those who deal in favors” preside over a Witches’ Sabbath wherein swindlers parade as sages and vice dons the robes of virtue:

Baal, or the World In Masquerade

Here, corruption is rewarded and honesty has become a self-sacrifice—the laws no longer protect you against them, but protect them against you: “for my friends, everything; for my enemies, the law.”

Tyler Durden
Tue, 01/13/2026 – 23:05

Surrounding Cities Move In As Seattle Pulls Back On Drug Enforcement

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Surrounding Cities Move In As Seattle Pulls Back On Drug Enforcement

A policy shift inside the Seattle Police Department is already generating unintended consequences — and they’re not the ones city leaders were hoping for, Jason Rantz of Seattle 770AM said in a new op-ed this week.

After Seattle Police Chief Shon Barnes told officers that most drug possession and use cases will once again be diverted away from prosecution and into the Law Enforcement Assisted Diversion (LEED) program, surrounding law-enforcement agencies moved quickly to capitalize on growing frustration inside SPD’s ranks. Pierce County Sheriff Keith Swank and the Marysville Police Department publicly began recruiting Seattle officers, using social media to pitch what they described as a more supportive environment for policing.

The Conservative commentator said Swank addressed Seattle officers and their union directly on X, telling them Pierce County “has a home for you,” promising strong leadership backing and community support.

Marysville’s police department quickly echoed the message, noting that it had already hired at least eight former SPD officers and highlighting its post-Blake municipal drug code and its own jail — features meant to signal that policing there still carries tangible authority and consequences.

Though the exchanges were framed humorously online, the message behind them was serious. According to the op-ed, Seattle’s renewed emphasis on diversion represents a return to policies that many officers believe stripped meaning from proactive policing.

While Barnes maintains that arrests can still be made, critics argue the system is structured to avoid real accountability by routing repeat drug offenders into a diversion program they view as ineffective and driven more by ideology than results.

The Seattle Police Officers Guild has repeatedly warned that such policies erode morale and compromise public safety. With overdose deaths and visible drug use still widespread, officers are being asked, the author argues, to enforce laws they know will rarely result in lasting consequences.

Other departments, meanwhile, are offering a simpler alternative: come work somewhere you are actually allowed to police.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 01/13/2026 – 22:40

Genes Are Not Your Destiny. How To Modify Your Epigenetics For Longevity

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Genes Are Not Your Destiny. How To Modify Your Epigenetics For Longevity

Authored by Makai Allbert via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

We’ve been told that our genetic destiny is written in our DNA. However, research is gradually dismantling this fatalistic view.

Artur Plawgo/Getty Images

Genetics may influence approximately 25 percent to 30 percent of how we age. The remaining portion is influenced by factors entirely within our control: what we eat, how we move, how we handle stress, others, and ourselves.

Lucia Aronica, a Stanford researcher specializing in epigenetics and nutrition, embodies this balance of nature and nurture.

After 17 years of epigenetic research, she sat down for an interview on my new show, “The Upgrade,” highlighting that: “You are not just a passive reader of your genetic code, but an active writer of your health story every day with every choice.

Rewriting Your Software of Life

Aronica suggests that to understand epigenetics, we should view DNA as computer hardware—an unchangeable biological structure present in every cell—and epigenetics as the software that tells your cells which programs to run and when.

The prefix “epi” means “on top of,” referring to molecular switches that sit atop your genes, turning them on or off without altering the underlying code.

“Here’s the beautiful part: You can rewrite that software starting today,” Aronica said.

The first step? Food.

‘Food Is the Foundation of Everything’

Aronica grew up in Italy, where her mother taught her that “in the kitchen and at the dining table, you don’t get old.”

She calls her approach, “epi-nutrition,” a way of eating that focuses on specific foods that directly influence your epigenetics.

These foods act as more than just fuel and contain nutrients that can turn on the genes that make you healthy and turn off the genes that make you sick, she said.

The key players are methyl donors, nutrients that provide the chemical groups your body uses to regulate genes. They include:

  • Folate: From green leafy vegetables, liver, legumes
  • Vitamin B12: Mainly in meat, fish, shellfish, liver
  • Choline: Mostly egg yolks, liver, and some in cruciferous vegetables
  • Betaine: From beets, quinoa, shrimp, wheat bran

“Your doctor probably told you to eat the rainbow,” Aronica said. “But here’s what your doctor may not realize: those pigments aren’t just antioxidants. They are epi-nutrients that actually regulate the epigenetic writer and eraser enzymes, activating genes that boost your health.”

Therefore, make sure to eat:

  • Red Foods: Tomatoes, bell peppers
  • Orange Foods: Oranges, pumpkin, carrots
  • Brown Foods: Coffee, dark chocolate—greater than 80 percent and non–Dutch processed
  • Purple Foods: Berries
  • Green Foods: Spinach, cruciferous vegetables

In particular, green foods contain sulforaphane, which Aronica calls “the boss of your body’s own antioxidants.” Unlike other vitamins, which work directly and are depleted within hours, sulforaphane activates your body’s internal antioxidant genes, keeping them active for up to three days. Thus, eating cruciferous vegetables (broccoli, Brussels sprouts, arugula) two to three times a week, she said, is enough to “keep your genes happy.”

Rather than memorizing which foods to eat, following the Mediterranean diet offers a reliable template. A wide body of research has shown that adherence to the Mediterranean diet promotes positive gene regulation.

A 2020 study even found that older adults who followed a Mediterranean diet for one year showed signs of what researchers called “epigenetic rejuvenation.” Their gene-regulation shifted toward a younger, healthier profile.

The Body Remembers

Beyond nutrition, Aronica’s approach extends to movement, stress, connection, sleep, joy, and toxin avoidance, which she refers to as “epi-wellness.”

Research shows that even a single bout of high‑intensity exercise can cause immediate changes in gene regulation in your muscles. These kick‑starting processes help them adapt and become fitter.

However, the real benefits come from consistent exercise. A 2024 study comparing trained and untrained men found that years of regular exercise create a lasting “epigenetic fingerprint.” The genes controlling energy use and muscle fiber type become primed to respond more efficiently to each workout. At the epigenetic level, your muscles remember their training. The adaptation helps muscles perform better and develop greater endurance.

Perhaps most remarkably, exercise shifts the epigenome toward a younger biological age. A large meta-analysis of 3,176 human skeletal muscle samples found that people with higher aerobic fitness have younger epigenetic profiles.

Mindset on Epigenetics

“Our beliefs and our feelings shape our epigenetics,” Aronica said.

A systematic review of 18 studies on meditation and related practices, published in Frontiers in Immunology, found a consistent pattern: Mind-body interventions are associated with reduced NF-κB activity, a protein that acts as a master switch for inflammation. When NF-κB is chronically activated, it drives the production of inflammatory molecules linked to accelerated aging. The evidence suggests that meditation can help keep that switch in the “off” position.

Long-term meditators show DNA methylation changes associated with telomere length—the protective caps on chromosomes that shorten with age. Notably, age was not associated with telomere length in long-term meditators, suggesting that their practice may buffer against cellular aging.

A more recent 2025 systematic review found that meditation-based practices seem to reshape how our genes are “managed” in key stress and aging pathways, adding to the NF-κB and telomere findings.

In plain terms, regular mindfulness appears to tweak chemical tags on genes involved in inflammation, immunity, metabolism, and brain health, nudging them toward a pattern linked with lower stress and slower aging.

A Forgotten Variable

In the world of biohacking and longevity optimization, Aronica believes that many people jump from one health protocol to another, often sacrificing something essential in the process: joy.

“There is no sustainable change without joy,” she said. “You’re not going to stick to any lifestyle change, whether it’s food or exercise, if you don’t enjoy it.”

Our brain makes us repeat habits that are good for our health, such as nourishing food, connection, and movement, triggering authentic pleasure as it is “our ancestral compass for health.”

However, the problem with modern society, she said, is that joy is often hijacked by artificial pleasures rather than natural ones.

“I’m not telling you to eat a lot of chocolate or candies or just crawl on social media. That is, unfortunately, a type of addictive pleasure that you want to avoid.”

Aronica adds that once you detox yourself from addictive and artificial pleasures, you can find true pleasure that serves as the foundation for sustainable change. “Once you love and enjoy the food and exercise you do, you’re going to want to do it every day,” she said.

The Harvard Study of Adult Development, which has tracked participants for more than 80 years, arrives at a similar conclusion: The strongest predictor of healthy aging isn’t diet or exercise alone, but rather the quality of relationships and the presence of joy in daily life.

Wielding Your Genetic Pencil

Genes matter, but they are not the final verdict.

Aronica illustrates that “some [DNA] edits, like those made before we were born, are in pen, so tend to be permanent. But the edits we write as adults are in pencil—they can be erased and rewritten.”

Every meal, every workout, every meditation session, and every choice for joy represents an opportunity to pick up that epigenetic pencil and rewrite your health story.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 01/13/2026 – 22:15

Did Anyone Even Notice PBS News Weekend Signed Off Permanently…

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Did Anyone Even Notice PBS News Weekend Signed Off Permanently…

“PBS News Weekend” signed off permanently on Sunday after 12 years on air. Did anyone actually notice?

The answer, quite frankly, is no, and this comes after Congress cut $1.1 billion in federal funding for public broadcasting over the Trump administration’s view that the public broadcasting outlet was spewing left-wing propaganda.

“Due to federal budget cuts, PBS News had to make the difficult decision to rework our staffing and programming. This Sunday, our PBS News Weekend team will sign off the air,” PBS News Weekend wrote on X.

Starting this weekend, PBS will replace the live newscasts with two pre-taped shows produced during the week to save money and eliminate weekend staffing. “Horizons” will air on Saturdays, covering science and technology, while “Compass Points” will air on Sundays, focusing on foreign affairs.

During Sunday’s finale, anchor John Yang revealed the behind-the-scenes staff who will be laid off at the end of the month. A review of those staffers only suggests why news coverage skewed far to the left.

We identified seven reasons last year why the Corporation for Public Broadcasting, which administers funding for NPR radio stations and PBS TV affiliates, deserved to lose its $1.1 billion in federal support. Those included promoting drag shows, featuring the Marxist group BLM on Sesame Street, an obsession with Pride Month and gay dads, constant streams of left-wing bias, undermining the Covid lab leak narrative, and other examples that suggest PBS was acting less like a news outlet and more like a propaganda arm for left-wing interests.

This is the first thing coming from NPR I’ve liked in 20 years,” one X user said.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 01/13/2026 – 21:50