Authored by Jacki Thrapp via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) and the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) announced two pilot programs on Dec. 19, as the Trump administration tests new ways to lower out-of-pocket drug costs for Americans on Medicare.

The first pilot program, Guarding U.S. Medicare Against Rising Drug Costs (GUARD), would apply an alternative approach to calculating prescription drugs for people on Medicare.

GUARD will examine drug prices in other countries, and if the United States discovers a drugmaker is charging more for the item in America, it may have to pay the government back.

The United States will reference prices in Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, the Czech Republic, Denmark, France, Germany, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, Norway, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom.

“Existing research finds that the prices of drugs sold in the United States are much higher than the prices of the same drugs sold in other countries,” the pilot program stated.

“One study finds that overall, the U.S. health care system spends substantially more on outpatient drugs for older adults with complex conditions, such as heart failure, diabetes, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), who are mostly covered by Medicare, than 11 other economically similar countries (including, for example, Australia, France, Germany, Canada, and the United Kingdom).”

The GUARD model would include drugs like antidepressants, antivirals, blood glucose regulators, cardiovascular agents, and gastrointestinal agents.

Spending on Medicare Part D drugs doubled in less than a decade, ballooning from $121 billion in 2014 to $276 billion in 2023, according to the Medicare Payment Advisory Commission (MedPAC).

The GUARD model would begin on Jan. 1, 2027, and end on Dec. 31, 2033. The “payment period” would be extended through December 2035.

The second test program, called Global Benchmark for Efficient Drug Pricing (GLOBE), will examine global price data to set patients’ out-of-pocket costs for certain drugs included in Medicare Part B, which would impact costs for treatments related to cancer, autoimmune diseases, eye disorders, and hormonal conditions.

GLOBE will launch on Oct. 1, 2026, and run through 2031.

The Dec. 19 announcement came as the Trump administration also said nine drugmakers had agreed to lower prescription drug costs in America.

“This represents the greatest victory for patient affordability in the history of American health care, by far, and every single American will benefit,” Trump said alongside health care executives at a ceremony inside the Roosevelt Room on Dec. 19.

“So, this is the biggest thing ever to happen on drug pricing and on health care. This will have a tremendous impact on health care itself.”

Reuters contributed to this report.

A Russian general was killed early Monday after a bomb detonated beneath his car in southern Moscow, Russian law enforcement officials have announced. The hugely provocative act, which was likely either carried out by Ukrainian operatives or allied Western intelligence (or both) marks the third killing of a high-ranking defense official over the past year.

The slain senior officer has been identified Lieutenant General Fanil Sarvarov, 56, who headed the General Staff’s operational training department. He initially survived the blast but soon after succumbed to his injuries.

Investigators released video showing a severely damaged white Kia Sorento in a residential parking area near apartment blocks in Moscow’s Orekhovo-Borisovo Yuzhnoye district. The doors were shown to be blown out and debris was strewn everywhere.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov later indicated that President Vladimir Putin was informed of Sarvarov’s death immediately.

BBC describes that Sarvarov “previously took part in combat operations during the Ossetian-Ingush conflict and the Chechen wars in the 1990s and early 2000s, and also led operations in Syria between 2015-2016.”

As for the investigation at the scene, The Moscow Times cites officials who say they are “assessing whether Ukrainian intelligence services could be linked to the incident. Ukraine, which has previously acknowledged carrying out similar attacks inside Russia, did not immediately comment.”

This adds to a growing list of high profile assassinations related to the Ukraine war. To review:

—Darya Dugina was killed in a car bombing in 2022 which was likely meant for her father, prominent political thinker and often dubbed “Putin ally” Aleksandr Dugin.

—Gen Igor Kirillov died in December 2024 outside of his residence when a bomb planted in a nearby scooter detonated.

—Gen Yaroslav Moskalik, who served as deputy head of the Main Operations Directorate of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, was killed in a car bomb attack last April. A “homemade” explosive device detonated under his Volkswagen Golf in a residential neighborhood.

Throughout the course of the war there’s been a string of these high profile assassinations on Russian soil involving car and even cafe bombs.

Footage from the scene of Monday’s car bomb attack, which marks the third such covert hit of a top Russian officer in a year:

Russia’s Investigative Committee says a car bomb in Moscow has killed a Russian general https://t.co/kajpAQoa2L pic.twitter.com/XmWXf1H8qq

— Reuters (@Reuters) December 22, 2025

The cafe bombing had happened in April 2023, and killed prominent pro-Kremlin blogger and war correspondent Vladlen Tatarsky. The blast at a St. Petersburg cafe during a close-quarters speaking event wounded some two dozen bystanders, six of them critically.

America’s CIA or Britain’s MI6 has long been suspected of being involved in these targeted killings, or at least assisting in such brazen Ukrainian-linked operations, but ultimately little has been uncovered or proven in terms of a potential Western hidden hand in this ongoing ‘dirty war’.

Authored by Daniel Lacalle,

One year into Donald Trump’s new presidency, the verdict from the data is clear: the apocalyptic consensus forecasts have failed, and the United States stands as the only major developed economy combining strong growth, controlled inflation and fiscal consolidation.

The same analysts and institutions that applauded massive stimulus, monetary excess and regulatory excess under the previous The same analysts and institutions that applauded massive stimulus, monetary excess, and regulatory excess under the previous administration now struggle to explain why the U.S. economy, which they expected to sink into stagflation, is instead outperforming all of its G7 peers. Furthermore, the U.S. peers that followed net-zero, big government and big tax policies are in secular stagnation.

From the “tariff tantrum” to a global surprise

When Trump announced his new wave of tariffs and trade policy, much of the global consensus rushed to predict a disaster. I called it the tariff tantrum. Commentators warned of an inflation surge beyond 2021 levels, 6%–7% Treasury yields, collapsing investment, a recession, and a world turning its back on the United States in favour of supposedly more responsible governments in Europe.​

Twelve months later, none of those predictions materialised. Instead, the U.S. 10-year yield has fallen to 4.1%; the U.S. is the only G7 economy growing robustly, while those nations that doubled down on hyperregulation, aggressive climate‑driven restrictions, high taxes and ever‑bigger government spending are stuck in stagnation despite enjoying a very positive tailwind of low oil and gas prices.

The “tariff tantrum” never became the structural shock that critics announced, because tariffs—however debatable on other grounds—do not cause inflation because they do not add currency units to the economy; uncontrolled public spending and monetary excess do. ​

Growth, investment and a rare fiscal adjustment.

The performance of the U.S. economy in 2025 is extraordinary not just in relative terms, but on its own merits. Real GDP is growing by around 3.8%, with the Atlanta Fed tracking roughly 3.5% annualised in the third quarter, and private investment is expanding at close to double-digit rates. Crucially, this improvement is happening while federal spending is being cut, not expanded as in other peers: public expenditure has fallen by about 3% over the year instead of disguising poor growth with unproductive federal outlays. ​

All international institutions have had to adjust quickly. The IMF, which initially projected a much weaker performance, now expects U.S. growth of about 2.1% in 2026, and several major research houses have revised their forecasts for 2025 up to around 2.5%, after initially warning of zero or even negative growth. Some economists have publicly acknowledged that the profession misread both the resilience of the U.S. private sector and the real impact of the tariff shock, admitting that from January onwards the consensus The consensus was consistently incorrect about the direction of the economy. ​

The most important factor is that the American expansion is not due to another wave of debt-fuelled political spending but rather to the recovery of the private sector, investment, trade, and productivity. In a world where most developed nations’ governments responded to every problem with more spending, more debt and more regulation, the new U.S. strategy creates a significant difference, and the results are much better. ​

Inflation under control

The most significant deviation from the consensus narrative came from inflation. The Keynesian consensus that saw no inflation risk in 2021 when government spending and money supply were soaring unanimously warned in early 2025 that tariffs would push inflation to new annual highs, even above the peaks seen under the previous administration. Instead, by November the consumer price index stands at about 2.7%, below prior expectations of 3.0% and galaxies away from the 6–7% ruin scenario sold to the public. ​

Core inflation tells the same story. The underlying index, excluding food and energy, is running at around 2.6%, significantly lower than in September and October 2024, when the same commentators enthusiastically defended the Biden‑era mix of giant spending and rapid Fed rate cuts. Over the twelve months to November, the all‑items index has risen 2.7%, after 3.0% in the previous twelve‑month period, and core inflation has increased just 2.6%. There is no sign of a tariff‑induced inflation wave in aggregate prices, only the inertia from the debt and spending binge inherited in 2024.

If anything, the trajectory suggests that as final data come in—particularly for food and energy components—the reported CPI could end up even lower. Independent analysis shows a 2.5% inflation estimate for November.

The lesson is clear: it was never tariffs that drove the global inflation spike, but a combination of uncontrolled fiscal expansion and central banks monetising deficits. The U.S. experience in 2025 proved this point once again. ​

Deficit, debt, and the politics of discipline.

While many advanced economies continue to drift into deeper deficits and higher debt, the U.S. has managed a rare success: combining growth with early signs of fiscal consolidation. The federal deficit has fallen by roughly 22%, from about 2.07 trillion dollars in November 2024 to approximately 1.6 trillion a year later, thanks to a mix of higher tax and trade revenues and spending cuts. Measured as a share of GDP, the deficit has dropped from a disastrous 7.1% inherited from the previous administration to an estimated 5.9%. Considering that almost 97% of the 2025 budget was already spent when the Trump administration took office, due to prior spending decisions and the continuation bills approved in 2024, the deficit reduction is even more commendable. ​

The reduction has been accompanied by a major tax reform. Trump has implemented the largest tax cut in decades, bringing the tax wedge on families below 30%, according to estimates from the Tax Foundation. In most OECD economies, policy has been the opposite: higher taxes on work and capital, justified by short‑term revenue needs but negative for investment and productivity.

On the spending side, the numbers are even more remarkable given the starting point. The new administration inherited a budget almost fully pre‑committed. Continuation bills and prior decisions had already locked in around 97% of federal spending. However, federal outlays still fell by 5.6% in the first quarter of 2025 and 5.3% in the second, with total public spending down 3.1% in the first half of the year. Trump has ordered an 8% cut in federal spending for 2026, signalling that fiscal adjustments are a core policy priority.

Debt dynamics are also encouraging. The new administration took office with federal debt around 36.22 trillion dollars and a legacy of 100% of GDP in committed but unfunded liabilities and roughly 1.5 trillion in previously approved obligations. Despite this poisoned inheritance, the debt has stabilised and edged slightly down to about 36.21 trillion, while the debt‑to‑GDP ratio has declined from roughly 122% to 120%, according to the Federal Reserve and independent analysis figures. Even a modest reversal sends a powerful message. ​

Labour market: native workers improve, and government and immigration shrink.

The labour market picture may be the least understood aspect of the U.S. turnaround. November’s employment report shows the best month for native private‑sector employment in absolute, seasonally adjusted terms since 2015, with real wages rising and a clear shift away from public employment and low‑productivity jobs fuelled by uncontrolled immigration. Weekly real wages are up about 0.8% over the year, and workers in middle- and lower-income categories see real gains of roughly 1.4%. Net real wages after taxes are rising at the fastest pace in years.​

The unemployment rate stands at 4.6%, higher than in Canada, the UK, France, Italy and the Eurozone average.

According to household survey data, native employment has increased from around 130.6 million in November 2024 to 133.3 million a year later—an addition of roughly 2.63 million jobs. Over the same period, foreign employment has fallen modestly, by about 21,000, and total public‑sector employment has dropped by 188,000.

This change—more native private-sector jobs and fewer government- and immigration-dependent jobs—is a huge difference compared with Canada, the UK, or most European economies, where employment gains include large public-sector and heavily subsidised job increases. The U.S. experience shows that a combination of deregulation, tax cuts and stricter control of public payrolls can still deliver better jobs and higher real wages for domestic workers. ​

Trade deals have been a success.

The evidence contradicts the notion that tariffs would destroy America’s position in global trade. The previous administration left behind a massive trade deficit—around 79.8 billion dollars in November 2024, seasonally adjusted, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. By September 2025, that deficit had fallen to roughly 52.8 billion, a reduction of about one-third compared with a year earlier. ​

The combination of targeted tariffs, renegotiated trade agreements, and a clearer defence of domestic industry has improved trade flows without triggering the inflation explosion that many had predicted.

Other improvements that matter.

The Trump administration has moved strongly on several fronts: banning central bank digital currencies, rolling back “woke” regulatory and freedom-of-speech limits, healthcare reform, and committing to scrap ten regulations for every new one approved. In foreign policy, Washington has pushed for a peace agreement in Gaza, a more realistic path to a solution in Ukraine based on pressure and sanctions on Russia, and stronger support for the return to democracy in countries like Venezuela. ​

The message for conservatives and centrists in Europe and Latin America is strong: If you want growth, jobs, and lower inflation, you cannot simply replicate the bureaucratic, high-tax, high-regulation model that has left much of the developed world stuck in secular stagnation. Trump may not fit the traditional label of a “classical liberal”, but the results of his first year in office show what a truly reformist conservative government can achieve.

For many in the international policy establishment, the uncomfortable reality is that the United States has delivered what others merely promised: stronger growth, controlled inflation, a narrower deficit, a better labour market for domestic workers, and initial stabilisation of debt. This has been achieved not by expanding the state and suppressing price signals, but by cutting taxes, reducing public spending, deregulating and trusting the private sector to respond. ​

Other advanced economies chose a different strategy: more bureaucracy, higher spending, and aggressive climate and social agendas financed with debt and taxes, and now find themselves in stagnation and a private sector recession despite favourable international energy prices reducing import expenses. ​

One year of Trump’s new term does not guarantee future success, and risks remain—from global shocks to central bank missteps—but it already offers an empirical challenge to the Keynesian consensus recommendations. If the U.S. had followed the net zero, big government and high tax policy suggestions of the mainstream consensus, it would now be in a disastrous fiscal and growth position, and inflation would be much higher, as the UK proves.

Suddenly French President Emmanuel Macron is deciding to revive his diplomacy with Moscow and is stepping in and “stealing the show” – as Politico has newly put it – at a moment US-Russia negotiations have been ‘constructive’ but largely slow and even stalled.

There’s been no breakthroughs in Miami this weekend involving White House envoy Steve Witkoff and his Russian counterpart Kirill Dmitriev, who sat across from Ukrainian national security adviser Rustem Umerov.

Macron’s office has said, coming just off a European Council summit which saw a controversial Russian assets confiscation plan for funding Ukraine fail to move forward, that France “welcomed” the idea of new direct talks with the Kremlin, but emphasized that negotiations would happen “in full transparency” for Ukraine and its European allies. “It is welcome that the Kremlin has publicly agreed to this approach. We will decide in the coming days on the best way to proceed,” the Elysee said Sunday.

On the so-called reparations plan, Politico writes that “Macron’s extended hand suggests he’s looking to return to the spotlight after months of European foreign-policy leadership by German Chancellor Friedrich Merz.” The report notes that “Macron played a key role at a gathering of European leaders in sinking the ‘reparations loan’ from Russia’s frozen assets, which Merz had publicly backed.”

Macron had in the opening year of the war been the only Western leader of prominence to directly phone Putin on many occasions, seeking a solution to the crisis in the wake of the Russian army entering Ukraine in February 2022.

Apparently he now wants to take the lead on behalf of Europe in pushing an alternative plan for ending the war, again at a moment engagement on Trump’s plan seems to have gone nowhere:

Macron said at last week’s EU summit in Brussels that it would be “useful” for Europe to reach out to Putin to ensure that a peace deal in Ukraine is not negotiated solely by the United States, Russia and Ukraine. “I think that we Europeans and Ukrainians need to find a framework to engage a discussion in due form,” Macron told reporters as the summit wrapped up early Friday morning.

The Kremlin on Sunday “expressed readiness to engage in dialogue” with Macron on the issue, according to Putin spokesman Dmitry Peskov.

From Moscow’s perspective, this is another PR and diplomatic ‘win’ – given the optics are that nearly four years into the war, and European leadership finds itself with little negotiating leverage while knowing Ukrainian forces are losing on the battlefield. 

As Washington and Moscow now control the narrative, Macron wants to step in to force France’s say in any future outcome or settlement, rather than wait on the diplomatic sidelines. Arming Kiev to the teeth has done nothing but prolong the needless killing, and perhaps at least some European capitals are beginning to realize this.

The following was just from two weeks ago:

Emmanuel Macron has reportedly warned Volodymyr Zelenskyy that “there is a chance that the US will betray Ukraine on territory, without clarity on security guarantees”, the German magazine Der Spiegel reported, quoting a leaked note from a recent call with several European leaders.

Der Spiegel said it had obtained an English summary of Monday’s call, featuring what it said were direct quotations from European heads of government in which they expressed fundamental doubts about Washington’s approach to the talks.

The French president described the current tense phase of the negotiations as harbouring “a big danger” for Ukraine’s embattled president, according to the summary. Germany’s chancellor, Friedrich Merz, reportedly added that the Ukrainian leader needed to be “very careful”.

Macron admits it would be useful to talk to Putin-

“I see there are people who talk to Putin.”

What will happen if the Dimwit in Chief (Kallas) finds out? pic.twitter.com/Sb87fTIDSk

— Chay Bowes (@BowesChay) December 19, 2025

As for the greater realism lately coming from Washington, Vice President J.D. Vance has offered some fresh remarks acknowledging that the issue of territorial concessions in Donbass is hampering the conflict settlement process, and that this is the Zelensky government’s doing: “So that territorial concession is a significant hold-up in the negotiations,” he stated.

But, he explained, Ukraine knows full well that it will “eventually” lose the rest of the Donetsk region – already nearly under complete control of Russian forces. “The Ukrainians understandably see that as a major security problem, [even as] they privately acknowledge that eventually, they’ll probably lose Donetsk,” he emphasized.

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

In a stunning reversal, Google has slammed the UK for threatening to stifle free speech through its aggressive online regulations. This from the company infamous for its own censorship crusades against conservative voices and inconvenient truths. If even Google is raising the alarm, you know the situation in Britain has hit rock bottom.

The move signals a broader culture shift in Big Tech, where woke agendas are crumbling under pressure from free speech advocates. It’s no coincidence this comes after Elon Musk turned Twitter into X, a platform where ideas flow without the heavy hand of ideological gatekeepers.

Google, which has demonetized, shadow-banned, and outright censored content that doesn’t align with leftist narratives, now positions itself as a defender of open discourse, accusing Britain of threatening to stifle free speech in an escalation of US opposition to online safety rules.

🔴 Google has accused Britain of threatening to stifle free speech in an escalation of US opposition to online safety ruleshttps://t.co/tYDEhQkJBq

— The Telegraph (@Telegraph) December 21, 2025

The Telegraph notes that Google has specifically accused Britain of a crackdown on the free flow of information through its ‘Online Safety Act’ and related regulations.

Key points from Google’s stance include concerns over the Act’s broad scope, which they argue could suppress open discourse by forcing platforms to over-censor content to avoid massive fines (up to 10% of global revenue).

Google has also previously criticized the funding mechanism for the crackdown, stating in a response to Ofcom: “The use of the worldwide revenue approach … risks stifling UK growth, and consequently affecting the quality and variety of services offered to UK users, by potentially driving services with low UK revenue out of the UK, or stopping companies from launching services in the UK.”

This ties into broader fears that the rules prioritize “safety” at the expense of fundamental rights, potentially leading to tech exodus or reduced innovation.

No additional direct quotes from Google appear in the public snippets, but the article frames their opposition as part of mounting transatlantic tensions, with Google contacted for comment on the matter. If you have access to the full piece, there might be more nuance.

Remember when Google scrubbed its calendar of DEI dates like Pride and Black History Month? That was a clear sign the winds were changing. As we covered earlier, it’s evidence of a culture shift away from forced diversity mandates.

But Google’s pivot isn’t happening in a vacuum. Credit goes to Elon Musk, who bought Twitter and rebranded it as X, transforming it into a bastion for free speech. Under Musk, X has resisted government overreach, allowing voices from all sides to thrive without fear of arbitrary takedowns. This has forced competitors like Google to rethink their own stifling policies, lest they lose users to platforms that actually value liberty.

The UK’s descent into speech suppression has been rapid and alarming.

In the latest crazy case, a UK man was jailed for 18 months over two tweets that were viewed just 33 times—insanity that highlights how far the state has gone in punishing thought crimes.

These cases build on a pattern of overreach, where British authorities prioritize “safety” over fundamental rights, echoing globalist efforts to control narratives on immigration, politics, and more.

President Trump’s allies have repeatedly criticised Britain’s pioneering legislative attempt to curb abuse and other harms online. Vice President JD Vance has warned the UK was following a “dark path” on free expression while Elon Musk’s X has urged that “free speech will suffer” under the rules.

Trump himsef this week suspended a $40 billion tech deal with the UK over its free speech crackdown, a move that underscores America’s commitment to First Amendment principles, and a clear sign that Trump will not stay silent on Britain’s freedom crushing policies.

The President has also offered asylum to British citizens being treated as “thought criminals” in their own country.

If Google is now exposing this evisceration of free speech, it must be dire. This isn’t just a policy disagreement; it’s a wake-up call that the tide is turning against censorship regimes worldwide.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

As we previewed late last week, the Santa Rally is back all right, and US equity futures are trading near session highs with the Nasdaq 100 poised to wipe out December’s losses as revived appetite for technology stocks powered gains across equity markets. As of 8:15am ET, S&P futures are 0.4% higher after the benchmark climbed 0.9% on Friday, the most in close to a month; Nasdaq futures rise 0.6% set to build on Friday’s jump as NVDA jumped 2% on a Reuters report the company sees H200 shipments to China starting by mid-February; Oracle and Micron both climbed more than 2% in premarket trading while most members of the Magnificent Seven megacaps advanced.Tech and mining shares outperformed in Europe. In Asia, benchmarks most exposed to artificial-intelligence demand, including South Korea’s Kospi, also led gains. Global bond markets remained under pressure, led by a second day of losses in Japanese debt following an interest-rate hike by the Bank of Japan. The dollar fell. Gold ($4400) silver ($69) and copper all climbed to record highs.The US economic calendar includes the Chicago Fed national activity index (8:30am). No Fed members scheduled to speak for the session

In premarket trading, Nvidia and Tesla lead gains among the Mag 7 tech stocks as sentiment toward AI-exposed companies improves following Micron Technology’s results last week. Nvidia has told Chinese clients it aims to ship its second-most powerful AI chips to China by mid-February, Reuters reports, citing people familiar with the matter. (NVDA +1.7%, TSLA +1.2%, GOOGL +0.5%, AMZN +0.4%, META +0.4%, MSFT +0.3%, AAPL is little changed).

• Gold and silver miners advance after prices of both precious metals hit record highs. Newmont (NEM) climbs 2% and Coeur Mining (CDE) rises 4%.
• Clearwater Analytics Holdings Inc. (CWAN) is up 8% as a group of private equity firms led by Permira and Warburg Pincus has agreed to acquire the investment and accounting software maker in a deal valuing it at $8.4 billion including debt.
• Honeywell (HON) slips 1% after the industrial conglomerate adjusted its full-year and fourth quarter 2025 guidance to reflect the reclassification of its Advanced Materials business — now Solstice Advanced Materials Inc. — as it discontinued operations following its spinoff on October 30.
• Marvell Technology (MRVL) rises 2% after Citi opened a positive catalyst watch on the chipmaker ahead of next month’s CES conference.
• Rocket Lab (RKLB) gains 4% after saying late Friday that it won a contract to design and build 18 satellites, the company’s largest single contract to date.
• T1 Energy (TE) climbs 7% after it signed a three-year contract to supply Treaty Oak Clean Energy with a minimum of 900MW of solar modules built with domestic solar cells from T1’s planned G2_Austin solar cell fab.

A year-end rally in stocks is taking hold, with investors positive about further gains in 2026, although volumes are set to be thinner in this holiday-shortened trading week. Sentiment has been bullish for three weeks in a row, according to Deutsche Bank strategists. Meanwhile, in commodities, oil rose as Trump intensified a blockade on Venezuela. Gold and silver soared to all-time highs on the escalating geopolitical tensions and bets on Fed rate cuts.

“It has been very remarkable how precious metals’ prices have decorrelated from other assets in recent months,” said Roberto Scholtes, head of strategy at Singular Bank. “Earlier this year, gold prices were materially correlated to the dollar and to high-beta risk assets such as tech stocks and cryptos. But this has been waning gradually, and nowadays they’re running freely.”

The focus on price moves in commodities went beyond record-setting metals, with oil climbing amid heightened geopolitical tensions after the US stepped up a blockade on Venezuela.

Bullishness toward stocks has pushed positioning higher, while fund managers are maintaining record low levels of cash, according to the latest BofA Fund Manager Survey. They are betting on a further rally next year, despite concerns in some quarters over rich valuations, heavy artificial intelligence capex and potentially over-optimistic earnings expectations. Separately, Goldman strategists say the economic outlook is supportive for small-cap stocks, a factor that’s underpriced by the market. The Russell 2000 is likely to advance 10% in 2026, close to the 12% return expected in the S&P 500, they say.

Optimism for a year-end rally in equities are growing after dip buyers late last week supported a rebound in US stocks. While some doubts about the AI trade and elevated valuations persist, optimism over the economy and corporate earnings is helping lift sentiment.

“Markets are riding a risk-on liquidity wave into year-end as resilient US growth underpins earnings next year, while a lower Fed fund rate eases financial conditions,” said Desmond Tjiang, chief investment officer for equities and multi-asset investment at BEA Union Investment. “Fears of AI capex and returns also recede on improving compute economics.”

Unlike the US, enthusiasm for European equities is missing on Monday as the Stoxx 600 slips 0.2% with utilities as well as food and beverage shares among the biggest laggards. Meanwhile, miners outperform as traders monitor the geopolitical outlook in Venezuela. Here are some of the biggest movers on Monday:

• Saipem shares rise as much as 4.3%, the most since July, after the Italian energy services and drilling specialist wins an offshore EPCI Contract Worth $3.1 Billion by QatarEnergy LNG.
• Fresnillo shares climb as much as 3% to a record high, leading a rally in mining stocks as gold, silver and copper prices hit record highs.
• Gruvaktiebolaget Viscaria shares rise as much as 17%, the most in more than a year, after Handelsbanken initiated coverage of the Swedish mining company’s stock with a buy rating, calling its growth potential attractive.
• Rank Group shares decline as much as 9.1%, hitting the lowest level since mid-May, after the gambling firm said its Spanish businesses, Enracha and Yo, were targeted by payment fraud totaling about €7.1 million.
• ASP Isotopes shares plunge as much as 50% in Johannesburg after Bronstein, Gewirtz & Grossman said it is investigating potential claims on behalf of purchasers.
• Fenerbahce shares fall as much as 3.5% in Istanbul to the lowest level since May after state-run Anadolu Agency reported the sports club’s chairman was questioned as part of an investigation into illegal drug use.
• Pantheon Resources shares drop as much as 58%, the most since April 2018, after pausing testing of the Dubhe-1 well, citing cost profile of winter operations and focus on “disciplined” capital allocation.

In rates, Japanese yields remain center stage, with the 10-year segment hitting its highest level since 1999. The yield is 6bps higher today, amid speculation the Bank of Japan may need to raise interest rates more aggressively. This has spilled into other global benchmarks, lifting US, UK and German yields by 1-2bps. US yields cheaper by 1bp to 2bp across the curve with 2s10s, 5s30s spreads steeper by 1.2bp and 1bp on the day. US 10-year yields trade around 4.165%, cheaper by 1.5bp vs. 

In Asia, stocks extended gains, as tech firms tracked their US peers higher in a holiday-shortened week. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed as much as 1.1%, with TSMC and Samsung Electronics supporting the gauge higher. Tech-heavy benchmarks in Taiwan and South Korea led gains in the region with a more than 1.5% increase each. Japan and Hong Kong shares also advanced. Here Are the Most Notable Asian Movers

• Kokusai Electric and Tokyo Electron shares climbed after Morgan Stanley MUFG analysts raised ratings and price targets for the stocks on signs of a recovery in demand for front-end semiconductor equipment. Meanwhile, Nidec shares rose after news the Japanese electronic component company’s founder Shigenobu Nagamori is stepping down from his position as chairman of the board.
• Shriram Finance shares surge to a record after analysts saw Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group’s $4.4 billion investment improving prospects of a credit rating upgrade.
• Mixue Group shares surge as much as 13% in Hong Kong, the most since March 7, after the Chinese fresh tea maker opened its first store in the US.
• Moore Threads shares rise as much as 4.2% after the company unveiled a new generation of chips aimed at reducing dependence on Nvidia Corp.’s hardware.
• WiseTech shares drop as much as 4.7%, the most since Nov. 18, after Executive Chair Richard White’s investment vehicle RealWise entered into a collar derivative transaction.
• Seatrium shares gain after the offshore engineering company reached an agreement with Maersk Offshore Wind’s affiliate Phoenix II A/S to deliver a wind turbine installation vessel by Feb. 28.
• Kokusai Electric and Tokyo Electron shares climbed Monday after Morgan Stanley MUFG analysts raised ratings and price targets for the stocks on signs of a recovery in demand for front-end semiconductor equipment.
• Daikin shares rose as much as 2.7%, the most since Nov. 20, after SMBC Nikko Securities raised the Japanese air conditioner maker to outperform from neutral on expectations for demand recovery and capital efficiency improvement.
• Nidec shares climb as much as 7.3%, the most since Nov. 11, after news the Japanese electronic component company’s founder Shigenobu Nagamori is stepping down from his position as chairman of the board.

This week’s Treasury auctions kick-off at 1pm New York with $69 billion 2-year notes, followed by $70 billion 5-year notes and $44 billion 7-year notes Tuesday and Wednesday. Before today’s auction, the WI 2-year currently trades around 3.482% which is ~0.7bp richer than November’s sale

In FX, the upside in Japanese yields and officials’ jawboning has supported the yen versus the dollar. Bloomberg’s Dollar Index is down 0.2%, pressured also by the outperformance in AUD, NZD and GBP.

In commodities, as noted above, gold and silver sit at record highs, up 1.6% and 2.8% respectively. WTI crude oil futures are up 1.9% as the US pursues a third tanker in Venezuela. Bitcoin continues to rise, up 1.8%.

The US economic calendar includes September Chicago Fed national activity index (8:30am). No Fed members scheduled to speak for the session

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini +0.4%
• Nasdaq 100 mini +0.6%
• Russell 2000 mini +0.4%
• Stoxx Europe 600 -0.2%
• DAX little changed
• CAC 40 -0.4%
• 10-year Treasury yield +2 basis points at 4.16%
• VIX +0.1 points at 15.05
• Bloomberg Dollar Index -0.2% at 1207.51
• euro +0.2% at $1.1737
• WTI crude +1.2% at $57.17/barrel

Top Overnight News

• U.S. Coast Guard Chasing Another Tanker Involved in Shipping Venezuela Oil: WSJ
• Russian General Is Killed After Car Bomb Explodes in Moscow: BBG
• Paramount Amends Bid for Warner Discovery With New Ellison Guarantee: WSJ
• Trump on Friday said he would call a meeting of insurance companies in the coming weeks to push them to cut prices and stay in the system.
• Trump on Friday announced deals with nine pharmaceutical companies to cut prices on most drugs sold through Medicaid and lower cash-pay prices, while committing to most-favoured-nation pricing for future drugs, according to Reuters. The companies also pledged more than USD 150bln in US manufacturing and R&D investment, agreed to remit some foreign revenues to offset US costs, and received relief from US tariffs in return.
• Charlie Kirk’s Empire Is Lining Up Behind a JD Vance Presidential Bid: WSJ
• Vanke Averts Default as Bondholders Approve Longer Grace Period: BBG
• Japan prepares to restart world’s biggest nuclear plant, 15 years after Fukushima: RTRS
• CBS News Pulls ‘60 Minutes’ Segment; Correspondent Calls Decision Political: WSJ
• One of Elon Musk’s Old Enemies Joins the Race to Run GM: WSJ
• Syrians emptied Assad’s prisons. They’re filling up again, and abuse is rife: RTRS
• Toxic Fumes on Planes Blamed for Deaths of Pilots and Crew: WSJ
• The Warner Deal: Cinema owners fear that Netflix or Paramount acquiring Warner could reduce number of theatrical releases or speed time to streaming platforms: WSJ
• Trump names Louisiana governor as Greenland special envoy, prompting Danish alarm: RTRS

Central Banks

• ECB’s Kazmir said that the ECB remains flexible and will be ready to step in if needed. He is concerned about the long term growth prospect of the Eurozone.
• Fed’s Hammack (2026 voter) said rates should be held steady into the spring after recent cuts, warning she was inflation-wary, noting November’s 2.7% CPI likely understated 12-month price growth due to data distortions, and suggesting the neutral interest rate was higher than commonly believed, the WSJ reported.
• Former BoJ member Sakurai said the first hike to 1.0% could come around June or July and that the BoJ likely sees the neutral rate sitting somewhere around 1.75%.
• Chinese Loan Prime Rate 5Y (Dec) 3.50% vs. Exp. 3.50% (Prev. 3.50%).
• Chinese Loan Prime Rate 1Y (Dec) 3.00% vs. Exp. 3.00% (Prev. 3.00%).

Trade/Tariffs

• China’s Commerce Ministry is to impose levies of up to 42.2% on EU dairy products, effective 23rd December, following its anti-subsidy probe.
• New Zealand concludes free trade agreement with India; deal set to be signed in H1 2026. India and New Zealand are confident of doubling bilateral trade over the next five years.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks kicked off the week with gains across the board as the region coat-tailed on the strength seen stateside. Tech outperformance continued across the region. ASX 200 edged higher as miners tracked gains in gold prices, with the yellow metal buoyed by a weekend packed with geopolitics Nikkei 225 was the clear outperformer as it topped 50.5k as the index cheered the post-BoJ JPY weakness on Friday alongside the global tech rally, whilst simultaneously overlooking the continuing rise in JGB yields. KOSPI was underpinned by its tech sector and following a month-to-date rise in exports. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the risk tone but with upside shallower than the above peers, with the PBoC LPR left unchanged as expected, whilst reports on Friday suggested US lawmakers urged the Pentagon to add DeepSeek and Xiaomi to the list of firms allegedly aiding the Chinese military.

Top Asian News

• Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Kihara said will not comment on the forex market; recently seeing one-sided, rapid moves; important for currencies to move in a stable manner reflecting fundamentals; will take appropriate action against excessive moves. Closely watching the impact of higher interest rates while cooperating with the BoJ.
• Japanese Top Currency Diplomat Mimura said he is recently seeing one-sided, rapid moves; will take appropriate action against excessive moves; concerned about forex moves.
• China Vanke (2202 HK) bondholders approve the decision on a vote for 30-day extension of CNY 2bln bond, however rejecting one-year extension for 15th Dec CNY 2bln bond, via Reuters sources.
• Goldman Sachs expect Chinese stocks to continue advancing in 2026, citing easing geopolitical tensions and as investors household savings begin flowing to equities as interest rates fall. Analyst Kinger Lau writes that “we expect the bull run to continue, but at a slower pace”. Though the firm highlights some main risks to the upside, including; global recession, AI exuberance, US-China tensions and disinflation. Finally, analysts suggest that the macro / equity-market policies remain in effect which should shift the expected fair value of Chinese stocks upward.

European equities (STOXX 600 -0.2%) are trading lower/flat this morning, with price action fairly rangebound in light newsflow. European sectors are trading with a mostly negative bias. Basic Resources (+1.1%) leads on firmer metal prices, followed by Tech (+0.4%) on positive spillover from the strong Nasdaq close, and Energy (+0.3%) on higher crude amid ongoing geopolitical tensions between Russia-Ukraine and US-Venezuela. On the downside, Utilities (-0.9%), Optimised Personal Care (-0.9%) and Food Beverage and Tobacco (-0.9%) lag.

Top European News

• German Ifo survey finds that 26% of firms expect business to deteriorate in 2026, 59% expect no change, 15% forecast an improvement.

Geopolitics: Venezuela

• US Coast Guard officials over the weekend tracked two oil tankers in international waters close to Venezuela, marking three tankers within the past week. An official suggested that the tanker is subject to sanctions, according to several media reports.
• The Venezuelan government rejected the seizure of a new vessel transporting oil, it said in a statement.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

• US Special Envoy Witkoff said the Ukrainian delegation held productive meetings over three days in Florida with US and European partners, including a separate US–Ukraine meeting, with discussions focused on timelines and sequencing of next steps.
• Ukrainian President Zelensky said broader consultations with European partners should follow recent talks in the US.
• Ukrainian President Zelensky said allies had started to slow supplies of air defence missiles and said Kyiv should stand by the US as mediator on talks with Russia, commenting on French President Macron’s proposal.
• Ukrainian President Zelensky said the situation in the Odesa region was harsh after Russian strikes and said Russia was trying to restrict Ukraine’s access to the sea.
• The Kremlin said changes made by Ukrainians and Europeans to peace proposals did not bring agreements closer or add anything positive, IFAX reported. It said Dmitriev was still in Miami meeting with Americans and would report on the results upon his return to Moscow. Kremlin aide said a trilateral Russia–US–Ukraine meeting was not being discussed.
• Ukrainian President Zelensky said elections could not be held in Russian-occupied parts of Ukraine, could only take place once security was guaranteed, and said Kyiv was working with the US on a stable peace while preparing voting infrastructure for Ukrainians abroad, Reuters reported.
• Ukraine’s deputy prime minister said Russia attacked the Pivdennyi port and was deliberately targeting civilian logistics in the Odesa region.
• Russia’s Defence Ministry said Russian troops had captured Vysoke in Ukraine’s Sumy region and Svitlie in the Donetsk region, according to IFAX and TASS.
• Russia’s Kremlin said Envoy Dmitriev will report to President Putin on the US proposals for a possible Ukraine settlement. Adds the US intelligence perception of Putin’s aims are mistaken following the Reuters report.
• Russian General Sarvarov was injured in a car explosion in Moscow, via Unn; subsequently, the Russian Investigative Committee said the general was killed in the explosion.
• “TASS: [Russian President] Putin’s envoy is likely to hold the next meeting with the US delegation in Moscow”, via Al Arabiya.
• Two vessels and two piers were damaged in Russia’s Krasnodar after a Ukrainian drone attack, regional authorities said; damage to piers led to a large fire in the area.
• US Special Envoy Witkoff said weekend meetings between US and Russian delegation were productive and constructive; Russia remains fully committed to achieving peace in Ukraine.

Geopolitics: Middle East

• Israeli PM Netanyahu reportedly plans to brief US President Trump on possible new Iran strikes, according to NBC News. Israeli officials believe Iran is expanding its ballistic missile program. They are preparing to make the case during an upcoming meeting with Trump that it poses a new threat. Israeli officials have announced a Dec. 29 meeting.
• Sources said the biggest risk is a war between Israel and Iran will break as a result of a miscalculation with each side thinking the other plans to attack and try to preempt it, according to Axios.
• Israeli officials warned the Trump administration over the weekend that an Iranian IRGC missile exercise could be preparations for a strike on Israel, according to Axios sources.

US Event Calendar

• 8:30 a.m. ET: Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

For anyone still out there, we’re now entering a very quiet spell for markets before Christmas, with data releases and other headline announcements almost completely drying up. Indeed, there’s only two-and-a-half days left to go for many places, as the US and several European markets are closing early on Christmas Eve, and this week usually sees some of the lowest volumes of the year.

This morning, the main news has been further sharp losses for Japan’s government bonds, which follows the Bank of Japan’s Friday decision to hike rates by 25bps to 0.75%, the highest since 1995. The hike already meant that Japan’s 10yr yield was up +6.9bps last week to close above 2%, and this morning they’re up another +6.9bps to 2.08%, their highest since 1999. One factor behind that has been the weakness in the Japanese yen, which fell -1.40% against the US dollar on Friday, despite the hike. And this morning, the country’s chief currency official Atsushi Mimura said to reporters that “We’re seeing one-directional, sudden moves especially after last week’s monetary policy meeting, so I’m deeply concerned”. So in turn, that weakness for the yen is seen as raising the chance of another BoJ rate hike and has prompted the latest selloff for JGBs. We’ve seen that echoed across other countries too this morning, with 10yr Australian yields up +5.1bps this morning, whilst the 10yr Treasury yield is up +2.0bps to 4.17%.

For equities however, there’s been a much stronger picture across the board overnight, with gains for Japan’s Nikkei (+1.90%), along with the KOSPI (+1.82%), the CSI 300 (+0.79%), the Shanghai Comp (+0.64%) and the Hang Seng (+0.20%). Looking forward, US equity futures are also pointing higher, with those on the S&P 500 up +0.26%. Moreover, there’s been a fresh rally for precious metals this morning, with gold prices up +1.40% to $4400/oz, which would be an all-time closing high if sustained, and is the first time they’ve reached that level on an intraday basis as well. Similarly, silver prices (+3.25%) are up to a fresh record of $69.34/oz. So that now leaves their YTD gains at +68% for gold and +140% for silver, which would be the biggest for both since 1979, back when oil prices surged after the Iranian Revolution that year led to major supply disruption.

The latest rise in bond yields this morning follows several central bank decisions last week, where hawkish-leaning elements pushed yields higher around the world. So for example, the Bank of Japan did their 25bp rate hike as expected but also signalled more were still ahead and said real interest rates were “at significantly low levels”. Meanwhile in Europe, there was ongoing speculation about a potential ECB hike next year, particularly after they upgraded their forecasts for growth and core inflation. So that helped to push 10yr bund yields up +3.8bps last week to 2.89%, their highest level since the German fiscal stimulus announcements back in March.

However, the main exception to that pattern were US Treasuries, whose yields fell after the soft CPI print led investors to price in more rate cuts, with the 10yr yield down -3.7bps last week to 4.15%. That comes as speculation around the next Fed Chair has continued to swirl, and Trump said last week that it would be “someone who believes in lower interest rates”. We got some more headlines on the next Fed Chair last Friday as well, as CNBC reported that Fed Governor Waller had a “strong interview” with Trump, and that BlackRock’s Rick Rieder would be interviewed in the last week of the year. So as it stands the current odds on Polymarket are 56% for NEC Director Hassett, 22% for former Fed Governor Warsh, 12% for Governor Waller, and 6% for Rieder.

In terms of the week ahead, it’s a pretty quiet one on the events calendar. One thing to note will be a few US data releases, including the delayed Q3 GDP print today, but that’s very backward-looking and covers the period before the shutdown. Otherwise today, the more recent data will be the December consumer confidence reading from the Conference Board, which will be in the spotlight given the recent downtick in sentiment. In fact, the previous reading for November was the lowest since the Liberation Day turmoil in April. But apart from that, there really isn’t much scheduled.

With little on the calendar this week, this lack of events got us thinking about whether anything could disturb the pre-Christmas calm, as we have seen a few occasions when this week has brought heightened volatility. The best recent example is probably 2018, when you may remember a huge selloff saw the S&P 500 fall -7.7% in the four pre-Christmas sessions. A whole bunch of negative factors converged at once, including a hawkish Fed signalling more hikes to come, weak global data, US-China trade tensions, and the start of a US government shutdown on Dec 22. That selloff deepened further after the US Treasury Department said in a Dec 23 statement that Secretary Mnuchin had spoken with CEOs of the largest US banks, and that the President’s Working Group on financial markets would have a call. So that created huge concern that policymakers knew something that the rest of us didn’t, and the S&P hit its closing low on Christmas Eve.

Another good example, although not quite as fearful, happened in 2022. That was the year central banks hiked aggressively to combat inflation, with global bonds and equities entering a bear market that featured huge bouts of volatility as they kept sinking lower. And the Christmas run-up was no different, with the 10yr Treasury yield surging +26bps in the week before Christmas. That followed an adjustment to the Bank of Japan’s yield curve control policy on Dec 20, which was widely seen as the beginning of the end of Japan’s ultra-loose monetary policy. They permitted the 10yr JGB yield to rise to around 0.5%, up from 0.25% previously, but the effects cascaded globally given Japan’s role as one of the last anchors for low yields. So that led to some dramatic moves right before Christmas, and it was one of the biggest weekly jumps that year for the 10yr Treasury yield.

To be fair, this time last year saw a pre-Christmas Santa rally that took the S&P 500 up +2.9% in the final 3 days before Christmas. But either way, it shows that even if it’s a quiet week on the calendar, we can’t completely dismiss the prospect of a final year-end curveball, which would be in keeping with the constant surprises of 2025 so far. After all, this year has seen a huge regime shift in German fiscal policy in March, the Liberation Day tariffs in April, a direct military conflict between Israel and Iran in June, and the longest-ever US government shutdown over October-November. And that’s before we think about some other long-running themes, including periodic bond market flareups around fiscal policy, fears of a potential AI bubble, and ongoing concern around private credit.

Recapping last week’s moves now, global equities navigated several headwinds at the start of the week to recover into the weekend, with the S&P 500 ultimately closing up +0.10% for the week. Concerns over AI valuations had been an issue in the middle of the week, with Oracle struggling after the FT reported that Blue Owl Capital wouldn’t back a $10bn deal for Oracle’s data centre in Michigan. However, the soft US CPI report and a more positive earnings release from Micron helped things turn around into the weekend, and the Magnificent 7 ultimately posted a +1.48% gain for the week.

That US CPI report was critical because it kept open the prospect of further rate cuts from the Fed next year. Admittedly, there were questions about the data’s methodology given the government shutdown, but the print was still viewed as soft enough to make Fed rate cuts more likely. So the headline CPI rate was down to +2.7% year-on-year (vs. +3.1% expected), whilst core CPI hit its lowest since early 2021 at +2.6% (vs. +3.0% expected). Earlier in the week, we also had the delayed jobs report for November, which showed the unemployment rate ticking up to 4.6%, whilst it showed payrolls had fallen by -105k in October, before rebounding by +64k in November. So overall, that kept up the momentum behind further rate cuts, with 60bps of further cuts priced in by the December 2026 meeting at the close on Friday. In turn, US Treasuries rallied across the curve, with the 2yr yield (-3.9bps) down to 3.48%, whilst the 10yr yield (-3.7bps) fell to 4.15%. US credit spreads saw little movement however, with IG spreads widening +1bp last week, whilst HY spreads were unchanged.

In Europe, equities put in a stronger performance, with the STOXX 600 (+1.60%) closing at a new record. In part, they were supported by signs of progress on the Ukraine peace talks, and Brent crude (-1.06%) fell back to $60.47/bbl, whilst yields on Ukraine’s 10yr dollar bonds fell to their lowest since March. In the meantime, the ECB left their deposit rate at 2%, although some hawkish tones also saw yields on 10yr bunds (+3.8bps), OATs (+3.5bps) and BTPs (+3.7bps) move higher. Otherwise, the Bank of England delivered a 25bp cut, taking their policy rate down to 3.75%, albeit in a close 5-4 vote that saw the rest prefer to keep rates on hold. Meanwhile, Euro IG credit spreads were unchanged last week, whilst HY spreads were +1bp wider.

Nvidia shares rose slightly in premarket trading in New York after Reuters reported that the US chipmaker has informed customers it plans to ship its second-most powerful AI chip, the H200, to China before the Lunar New Year in mid-February.

Sources familiar with the shipment say Nvidia plans to deliver about 5,000 to 10,000 chip modules, equivalent to 40,000 to 80,000 H200 AI chips, to China in the coming months.

Those same sources noted that the chipmaker plans to expand H200 production capacity in the new year, with orders for that capacity scheduled to open in the second quarter of 2026.

Designed by Nvidia, the H200 AI chips are manufactured by Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company using its advanced 4-nanometer process. This is the same foundry that manufactures most of Nvidia’s Hopper-generation GPUs.

Major Chinese tech firms, including Alibaba Group and ByteDance, are interested in the H200s for training large AI models. This chip offers about six times the performance of the H20.

However, the sources noted:

Significant uncertainty remains, as Beijing has yet to approve any H200 purchases and the timeline could shift depending on government decisions, the sources said.

“The whole ‌plan is contingent on government approval,” the third source said. “Nothing is certain until we get the official go-ahead.”

. . .

Chinese officials held emergency meetings earlier this month to discuss the matter ‍and are weighing whether to allow shipments, Reuters reported this month. One proposal would require each H200 purchase to be bundled with a set ratio of domestic chips, according to the report.

This report follows the Trump administration’s approval of Nvidia’s sale of H200s in China, but only on the condition of a 25% surcharge. The opportunity from the US Gov’t will also be available to other chipmakers, such as Intel and AMD.

However, China’s move to expand domestic production of advanced AI chips may be at odds with Western chipmakers trying to expand market share in the world’s second-largest economy.

Authored by Eric Salzman via Racket News, (emphasis ours)

By just about any metric it has been a blowout year for the retail brokerage company Robinhood Markets. The company’s stock (HOOD) price is up about 220% in 2025, revenues and account growth have shot higher, and founder Vlad Tenev has become a multi-billionaire.

Robinhood was founded in 2013 but really burst onto the scene in 2020, changing the face of the retail brokerage industry. After a near-death experience in 2021 with the infamous GameStop episode, the company has become a phoenix, rising from the ashes, turning itself into a casino that can fit in a young man’s pocket. On the Robinhood app you can buy and sell stocks, options, crypto and bet on Monday Night Football all at the same time!

Robinhood is a pusher in plain sight and dopamine is the drug it peddles. It rounds up retail, non-professional traders and matches them up with the best and fastest traders in the world and gets paid handsomely to do it. Tenev continually claims he’s democratizing investing, but his customers are, in effect, profitable lab rats. Their order flow is sold to professional trading firms and studied. They’re more like marks than investors.

The Wall Street Journal recently reported:

The chief executive of Robinhood took the stage at the online brokerage’s annual summit in Las Vegas this fall decked out in a race-car driver’s jumpsuit and customized Nikes.

Vlad Tenev told the hundreds of cheering traders in the audience that they had chosen “one of the most intense lifestyles out there.” He compared trading to driving a race car. “A finely tuned machine can make all the difference,” he said, “and that’s the role we feel Robinhood plays for our active investors.”

Vlad is right about one thing: trading for a living is definitely intense. I’ve done it professionally until I realized I really wasn’t good at it (most people aren’t) and went back to sales and strategy! A veteran trader, who was actually very good at it, said to me once, “If it were easy, Girl Scouts would be doing it.”

As far as Vlad taking the stage in race-car driver get-up and talking about a finely tuned machine making the difference, the analogy only works if the driver knows how to handle the damn car.

If you put 99.99% of us into a Formula One car, we’re going to run that thing into the first wall we see. Maybe the odds are a little better trading stocks, or options on stocks and the host of other high-octane wagers that Robinhood promotes and offers, but over the long term, not much better.

The Journal’s story includes that of a 35-year-old man who says he gets up at 6:30 a.m. every day to start trading zero-day options.

It’s a hobby he said he never would have picked up if not for how easy it is on Robinhood. “The thrill gets me going. If $500 can get me $50,000 or $60,000, let me just try.”

Good Lord.

I have to admit that I’ve looked at the meteoric growth of Robinhood with fascination and a sick sense of admiration for what Vlad Tenev and Baiju Bhatt built.

I felt the same way when I watched “Narcos Mexico” and saw how Felix Gallardo built the first Mexican marijuana and cocaine cartel.

My admiration comes from the rather brilliantly evil way Tenev and Bhatt took their early experiences with high frequency trading (HFT), identified a new brokerage profit model that could offer a no-fee brokerage combined with a video game-like interface to serve up dopamine hits to a whole new generation of investors that the traditional brokerage houses either overlooked or didn’t know how to reach effectively.

A Ticket to Billions: Payment for Order Flow

Fee-less trading was Robinhood’s main draw when it started in 2013. You might ask yourself how Robinhood could have made money without the traditional fees a retail broker would charge per trade. To this day, most users of Robinhood don’t know the answer to this question.

From their experience with high frequency trading, the Robinhood boys learned that they didn’t have to send your order to the publicly visible New York Stock Exchange, but could sell customer orders to buy and sell stocks and options to the big and secretive HFT market makers, like Citadel, Dash, Wolverine, Susquahanna, Jane Street and Morgan Stanley, who will happily take the other side of your trade and quietly pay Robinhood for the privilege. This is called Payment for Order Flow (PFOF). You may have read or heard about this from Michael Lewis’ book, “Flashboys.” Before all the super geniuses of the planet went into Artificial Intelligence, they went to Wall Street or Chicago to build these super-fast trading algorithms that can transact in about 100 milliseconds, or faster than you can blink your eyes.

Without getting too into the weeds, when a Robinhood customer places an order to buy a stock, Robinhood can go to say, the New York Stock Exchange to fill the customer’s order or can route the order to one of the HFT market makers as long as it’s making the best effort to get the best execution (essentially, price) for the customer. The HFT market makers post where they will buy or sell a particular stock or option. The market maker profits from the difference.

Profit isn’t guaranteed but market makers typically make a penny or two per share on stock trades — and they are potentially making tens of millions of pennies per day. For options, the HFTs can make a much larger spread, anywhere from 10 cents to a few dollars. This is why HFT market makers like options! HFT market makers pay retail brokerages like Robinhood and Charles Schwab a certain amount per share of their retail orders to direct the orders to them, and as long as the retail customer is getting the National Best Bid and Offer (NBBO) at the moment of trade, all good, right? Maybe.

The SEC found that from 2015 to 2018, Robinhood was not disclosing to its retail clients how the company was making money off orders by selling their order flow. from the 2020 SEC press release.

“…Robinhood made misleading statements and omissions in customer communications, including in FAQ pages on its website, about its largest revenue source when describing how it made money – namely, payments from trading firms in exchange for Robinhood sending its customer orders to those firms for execution, also known as “payment for order flow.” As the SEC’s order finds, one of Robinhood’s selling points to customers was that trading was “commission free,” but due in large part to its unusually high payment for order flow rates, Robinhood customers’ orders were executed at prices that were inferior to other brokers’ prices. Despite this, according to the SEC’s order, Robinhood falsely claimed in a website FAQ between October 2018 and June 2019 that its execution quality matched or beat that of its competitors. The order finds that Robinhood provided inferior trade prices that in aggregate deprived customers of $34.1 million even after taking into account the savings from not paying a commission.

After that ethical speed bump, Robinhood really got down to business. The demographic Robinhood was going for suddenly had lots of time on its hands when Covid hit. The Robinhood app provided a fix as people went to work day-trading, especially trading options. When it comes to getting your dopamine on, trading options — especially those expiring in a week or two — can do the trick.

Leverage

Here is a simple example. Back in 2021 when stocks were on a huge bull run, especially the big technology stocks like Google, Robinhood traders used options to get leverage. Leverage means using a smaller amount of your own money to control a much larger position or exposure in the market — essentially amplifying both potential gains and losses.

In this case, one standard stock option contract gives you control over 100 shares of the underlying stock (without having to buy the shares outright). Therefore, the trader could buy 10 call option contracts for $1,200, betting that Google stock will go higher by more than about 5% in the next two weeks. That $1,200 controls exposure to 1,000 shares (10 contracts × 100 shares each), which is the leverage in action.

At the end of two weeks, if Google went up say, 7%, the options could roughly double in value (or more, depending on the details), letting the trader turn that $1,200 into a big profit. However, if Google only goes up 4% (or less than the break-even point), the options the trader paid $1,200 for expire and become worthless, and the entire $1,200 is lost.

From June 1, 2020 to December 31, 2021, (Source Bloomberg) Google went up 102% and the option bets paid off handsomely. Since this was the first time many Robinhood traders invested in options, they felt it was a license to steal! They had never really lost. However, in 2022 Google shares dropped 39% and option bets got creamed as newbie traders learned the downside of leverage. In 2021 Bloomberg News reported on Robinhood’s option activity.

New disclosures show the app’s monthly volume of options executed tripled last year, making the firm the second-most active among peers behind Charles Schwab Corp., a 50-year-old stalwart that just bought TD Ameritrade. Offering options is so lucrative that they accounted for two-thirds of Robinhood’s reported revenue from order flow, a significant source of income. A single contract can generate more money than handling 100 shares.

Using its app, clients can unlock Robinhood’s most advanced level of options strategies in minutes by tapping their details into a smartphone. They can then instantly start placing wagers on some of the most complex U.S. markets available to the investing public. Approval for similar access can take days at competitors such as Schwab and Morgan Stanley’s E*Trade.

Between 2020 and the 3rd Quarter of 2025, Robinhood has been paid billions by HFT firms for their option order flow. For example, in the 3rd quarter of 2025, HFT market makers paid Robinhood approximately $260 million.

Robinhood gets paid more than other retail brokers for its option order flow. Why?

As of September 2025 Robinhood was paid by HFT firms $0.53 per options contract. Their closest option flow competitor Schwab got $0.39 per contract. Why is Robinhood’s flow so much more valuable than Schwab’s? One theory that I subscribe to is that Robinhood’s main client base — young men — is aggressive risk takers and relatively predictable. As we learned in the “Meme Stock” craze of 2020-2021, this client base moves in herds. HFT algorithms study the trading patterns of this demographic and predict what the Robinhood customer is going to do before they do it and I would bet that Vlad and Baiju knew about this when they started the firm more than a decade ago.

The HFT firms are not guaranteed wins every time, and they are taking risk which means they are not necessarily doing anything wrong. Robinhood on the other hand, pushing option trading aggressively because they know their option order flow is the most valuable by a wide margin is, at best, sleazy.

Recently, the Wall Street Journal reported:

(Vlad) Tenev has come to realize that plugged-in, aggressive traders are actually key to his company’s success.

Robinhood offers a host of ordinary financial products, including retirement accounts and credit cards. It is the riskier products tailored to day traders that make the most money for the company. In the most recent quarter, customer trading generated more than half of Robinhood’s revenue, and 78% of that transaction-based revenue came from crypto and options trading.

Tenev said he directed his team to cater more to that group. “These are our most engaged customers that generate the lion’s share of our revenue,” he said in an interview. “We put our best people on active traders.”

This sort of reminds me of “The Wire” druglord Avon Barksdale

Crypto

Robinhood has continued to expand rapidly in crypto. The Block reported last week:

Robinhood wants to attract more advanced, high-volume crypto traders in both the U.S. and EU and is unveiling new features to do so, including lower fees and added leverage for altcoin futures, the company said Monday.

Hoping to woo sophisticated traders away from rival exchanges, the stock and crypto trading platform has in the U.S. expanded the number of available fee tiers from three to seven, “offering rates as low as 0.03% for high-volume traders,” Robinhood said in a statement. In the EU, users who want to trade perpetual futures will now have access to new trading pairs with eligible customers able to trade up to 7X leverage.

7x leverage on altcoins, what could possibly go wrong?

Zero Day Options

Also recently, Robinhood has piled into a fabulous product mentioned earlier, zero-day options. If there was ever a product where probably 99% of Robinhood customers should not be playing in, it is zero-day options or 0DTE (Zero Days to Expiration), especially with Michael Lewis’ “Flash Boys.”

The way the product works is, say the S&P 500 index starts the day at 6,800. The customer can buy an option that pays off if the S&P 500 goes up 1% by the end of the day or down 1% (greater than 6,868 or less than 6,732). This is called “buying volatility.” If the S&P moves more than 1% in either direction by the end of the day, the customer wins; if not customer loses. There are many iterations of this type of trade, the type of trade Flash Boys wrote the book on, and they are the ones Robinhood’s customers are trading against. Who do you think will win that one over time?

Robinhood is getting paid handsomely to serve up its customers to the sharks. I imagine there are lots of guys like the one the Wall Street Journal spoke to who put down a daily bet at the opening bell and stare at their phone or iPad until the 4 pm close instead of actually living a life.

Prediction Markets

Finally, there’s the prediction markets. Prediction markets have been around for a while. The biggest prediction exchange in the U.S. is Kalshi, which started up in 2021. Kalshi is pretty simple.

Take an event like the presidential election. The player thinks Trump will beat Harris and currently 53% of all betters think Trump will win. The player bets $0.53 on Trump, and if Trump wins the player gets $1.00 and has made $0.47. Conversely, the players that bet on Harris put up $0.47. Now you can pretty much bet on the outcome of anything with Kalshi, including most sporting events.

The genius of Kalshi is that it’s able to call its product an “event contract” regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Kalshi is now considered to be a regulated exchange. Not having its product classified as a wager, but instead a regulated financial product, means that it’s legal to sell to 18-year-olds in all 50 states. Online sports gambling sites like DraftKings at least require customers to be 21 years old.

Brilliant.

Naturally, this August, just in time for football season, Robinhood partnered with Kalshi to put prediction markets for the NFL and college football on Robinhood’s app. Then in late November, Robinhood partnered with Susquahanna (one of the HFT Flash Boys that buys Robinhood’s order flow) and bought an existing CFTC-regulated exchange, acquiring a designated contract market (DCM) and derivatives clearing organization (DCO), MIAXdx. Susquahanna will be the market maker. The whole shebang will be launched in 2026 and the best news is, those highly entertaining but idiotic Same Game Parlay NFL bets will be available.

Starting Tuesday, users are able to trade preset combinations of the outcome, totals and spreads of individual NFL games, and starting in early 2026, users will have the ability to create custom combos of up to 10 outcomes across NFL games. Those will have “a structural look or feel as a parlay,” JB Mackenzie, vice president and general manager of futures and international at Robinhood, told CNBC.

Even more, the company is allowing users to wager on the performances of individual NFL players in real time. For example, they can place prop bets on a certain player scoring a touchdown at any point during a game as well as the passing, receiving and rushing yards for a player.

Awesome, bro.

We have been in a bull market for stocks for three years now. At some point we are going to have a draw down, probably a big one. Unfortunately, these three years have drawn in hundreds of thousands of our kids to the Robinhood pocket-casino. I’d like to think something can be done before the bad event to at least stop Robinhood’s growth, but there’s really nothing that can or will be done. I’d like to see the prediction market on that.

You can also listen to Eric Salzman discuss Robinhood on his podcast, Monkey Business.

President Donald Trump announced late Sunday on Truth Social that he is appointing Louisiana Gov. Jeff Landry to serve as the U.S. Special Envoy to Greenland. The move prompted Denmark’s Foreign Minister, Lars Lokke Rasmussen, to summon the U.S. ambassador, saying the appointment suggests continued American interest in the resource-rich island.

“I am pleased to announce that I am appointing the GREAT Governor of Louisiana, Jeff Landry, as the United States Special Envoy to Greenland. Jeff understands how essential Greenland is to our national security and will strongly advance our country’s interests for the safety, security, and survival of our allies, and indeed, the world. Congratulations, Jeff!” Trump wrote in the Truth Social post.

Following Landry’s appointment, Rasmussen told Reuters in an emailed statement, “The appointment confirms the continued American interest in Greenland. However, we insist that everyone—including the U.S.—must show respect for the territorial integrity of the Kingdom of Denmark.”

In a separate statement, Rasmussen told CBS News he was “deeply angered” by the appointment and warned Washington to respect Denmark’s sovereignty.

This prompted Denmark to summon the U.S. ambassador. Danish officials also summoned the U.S. ambassador in August after a report that at least three people with connections to Trump carried out covert influence operations in Greenland.

I am happy to see the Trump Administration isn’t giving up on acquiring Greenland. It should be one of the top goals for the Administration to require Greenland. I would tell NATO that we are done if a deal isn’t reached. There are a lot of reasons why we need to have Greenland. pic.twitter.com/se5dRz50hj

— The Calvin Coolidge Project (@TheCalvinCooli1) December 22, 2025

Trump’s proposal to buy Greenland didn’t come out of nowhere. The US has had a military presence in Greenland since World War II and became its military defender in 1951. Harry Truman offered to buy it for $100M in gold. And our bases there are still deterrents against Russia. pic.twitter.com/zLetEHvCzv

— Glenn Beck (@glennbeck) January 23, 2025

Trump has repeatedly stated that the U.S. should have jurisdiction over Greenland, mainly for defense and mineral-rich deposits. The strategically located Arctic island fits into the broader theme of Western Hemisphere Defense.  

In March, Vice President JD Vance toured the U.S. Pituffik Space Base, met U.S. Space Force personnel on the island, and accused Denmark of underinvesting there.

According to a January opinion poll, a majority of Greenland’s 57,000 people wanted to become independent from Denmark but did not want to join the U.S.

The continued American interest in Greenland underscores the strategic importance of the resource-rich island in the Arctic for hemispheric defense purposes.

Beijing has condemned the U.S. interception of sanctioned crude tankers off the Venezuelan coast after a China-bound oil tanker was seized on Saturday. Beijing said Venezuela has the right to conduct trade with other countries.

Reuters cited China’s foreign ministry spokesperson Lin Jian at a regular press briefing, who said the US seizure of another country’s tanker was a serious violation of international law. Jian added that China opposes all “unilateral and illegal” sanctions.

On Saturday, the U.S. Coast Guard seized the Centuries, which was loaded with 1.8 million barrels of sanctioned Venezuelan crude and was flying under the false name “Crag.” The tanker was bound for China.

China is the largest buyer of Venezuelan crude, but Venezuelan oil accounts for only about 4% of China’s total crude imports.

Reuters reports that data this year show Venezuelan crude exports to China range from 400,000 to 580,000 barrels per day, depending on the period and shipping patterns.

A White House spokesperson told Reuters that the Centuries was a “falsely flagged vessel” and carried sanctioned oil that was part of Venezuela’s shadow fleet.

So far, the US has seized two sanctioned tankers. The first, VLCC Skipper, earlier this month. Skipper is set to be unloaded in the coming days at the Galveston Offshore Lightering Area (GOLA). After Saturday’s seizure, news hit late afternoon Sunday of US forces in pursuit of yet another tanker.

All of this fits within the Trump administration’s gunboat diplomacy foreign policy strategy, which is designed to accelerate regime instability in Caracas while materially weakening Cuba; the core objective is to disrupt financial flows, sever funding channels, and allow second- and third-order effects to follow.