Russian President Vladimir Putin is in India for a two-day official visit, greeted by New Delhi city streets decked out in “Welcome to India” posters, celebratory images of Putin’s portrait, and alternating Russian and Indian flags. Prime Minister Narendra Modi was actually present at the airport in Delhi to receive Putin Thursday night, which marks a rare break from protocol.

The Russian leader met with Prime Minister Modi and senior Indian officials, and the agenda included a wreath-laying ceremony at the Mahatma Gandhi memorial, the signing of economic and strategic partners ship deals, and participation in the Russian-Indian Business Forum. Putin’s last trip to India was five years ago, in 2021, and Modi’s visit to Moscow last year came at a sensitive and crucial point at which the West was trying to impose total isolation on Moscow, amid the grinding Ukraine war.

Modi during the Putin meeting hailed the two countries’ relations as “steadfast like a pole star” – while the Russian leader  praised his Indian counterpart for resisting “external pressure” and investing in closer relations. Trump has already hit India with an additional trade tariff of 25% over continued purchases of Russian energy, taking the total to a steep 50% on Indian goods exported to the US.

All eyes are on their oil trade amid US sanctions and tariff pressures on India from the Trump administration. On this crucial front, Putin said that Russia was prepared to continue “uninterrupted” crude oil shipments to India.

Russia is “ready to continue to ensure an uninterrupted supply of fuel for the rapidly growing Indian economy,” Putin pledged.

At a moment that Washington and the EU have loudly denounced that India’s purchases of cheap Russian oil help finance Moscow’s war in Ukraine. Putin stated while in Delhi, “The United States itself still buys nuclear fuel from us for its own nuclear power plants. That is also fuel,” according to his words to India Today.

He questioned while pointing out the clear contradiction, “If the U.S. has the right to buy our fuel, why shouldn’t India have the same privilege? This question deserves thorough examination, and we stand ready to discuss it, including with President Trump.” According to more of Putin’s pushback:

India has said Trump’s tariffs are unjustified and unreasonable and pointed at ongoing U.S. trade with Moscow. The U.S. and European Union continue to import billions of dollars’ worth of Russian energy and commodities, ranging from liquefied natural gas to enriched uranium.

“There is a certain decline in overall trade turnover during the first nine months of this year,” Putin said when asked whether Indian oil purchases had fallen under pressure from the West.

“This is just a minor adjustment. Overall, our trade turnover stands almost at the same level as before.” He added: “Trade in petroleum products and crude oil … Russian oil, is running smoothly in India.”

Glimpses from the ceremonial welcome for President Putin at Rashtrapati Bhavan. President Putin has been unwavering in his commitment to strong India-Russia ties and has contributed immensely to taking this relationship to new heights. Though the world has seen many changes over… pic.twitter.com/iQQNzq168n

— Narendra Modi (@narendramodi) December 5, 2025

Additionally the two agreed to take the “India-Russia economic partnership to new heights” under the India-Russia economic cooperation program until 2030, for which they signed a number of memorandums which set out an ambitious trade target of $100 billion.

Just ahead of the trip, the Deputy Head of the Russian Presidential Administration Maxim Oreshkin had previewed of some of the Kremlin’s goals, “The Russian delegation and businesses have come to buy Indian goods and services, and we want to significantly increase purchases. This is not a temporary story, but a strategic choice for developing relations between the world’s third-and fourth-largest economies.”

“Today, India is one of the key drivers of the global economy. Considering its demographics and urbanization, India is a global growth leader for the coming decades and a significant player in global trade. India has achieved significant results in science and technology,” Oreshkin added.

The US-led international sanctions on Lukoil and Rosneft have just translated to more exports via other Russian companies:

Matryoshka oil trading:

Goldman Sachs says that oil exports from Lukoil and Rosneft are down ~1.1m b/d, but **simultaneosly** exports from other Russian “non-sanctioned companies” are up 1.0m b/d. (😇🤭)

“Russian oil trading networks are reorganizing quickly,” the bank says. pic.twitter.com/jcX8PXt2Ij

— Javier Blas (@JavierBlas) December 3, 2025

PM Modi in turn confirmed that “Both sides are working towards the early conclusion of a Free Trade Agreement with the Eurasian Economic Union.”

On India’s dealing with Trump and tariffs, Putin struck a tone of optimism, also as Moscow is engaged in its own direct talks with Washington. “We hope that, in the end, all violations of World Trade Organization regulations will be rectified,” Putin said.

Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times,

Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem said on Dec. 4 that the Trump administration is looking to increase the number of countries subject to the U.S. travel ban to more than 30.

The United States currently imposes full or partial suspensions of entry on nationals from 19 countries, including Afghanistan, Haiti, Iran, Cuba, Somalia, Libya, Laos, Burma (also known as Myanmar), and Sudan.

Noem said more countries will be added, but did not name any.

“I won’t be specific on the number, but it’s over 30, and the president is continuing to evaluate countries,” she said in an interview on Fox News’ “The Ingraham Angle” that aired Dec. 4.

“Listen, if they don’t have a stable government there, if they don’t have a country that can sustain itself and tell us who those individuals are and help us vet them, why should we allow people from that country to come here to the United States?”

Noem blamed the Biden administration for the asylum backlog, which she said has exceeded a million cases.

She said credible applicants were unable to get through “because the Biden administration was just allowing people to come here and allowing them a free-for-all at the United States and our territories and our country, and then they weren’t vetting them and backlogging their cases.”

The U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) last week halted all asylum decisions following the Nov. 26 shooting of two National Guard members in Washington, which authorities say was carried out by an Afghan national who entered the United States in September 2021 through a Biden-era resettlement program.

Noem on Dec. 2 called for a “full travel ban” on countries she says are flooding the United States with criminals and welfare dependents following a meeting with President Donald Trump.

“Our forefathers built this nation on blood, sweat, and the unyielding love of freedom—not for foreign invaders to slaughter our heroes, suck dry our hard-earned tax dollars, or snatch the benefits owed to AMERICANS. WE DON’T WANT THEM. NOT ONE,” she stated on X.

Trump has said that his administration would work to pause immigration from “third-world countries” to allow for the U.S. system’s full recovery.

Speaking to reporters on Nov. 30, the president said that his reference to third-world countries included “people from different countries that are not friendly to us,” and “countries that are out of control themselves,” pointing to Somalia as one example.

Trump also urged to suspend all federal benefits and subsidies to noncitizens, denaturalize immigrants who undermine domestic tranquility, and deport any foreigners deemed to be “a public charge, security risk, or non-compatible with Western civilization.”

Authored by Michael Snyder via TheMostImportantNews.com,

Why is the number of business bankruptcies in the United States rising so rapidly?  It isn’t because the economy is doing well.  Every day there are more news stories about businesses that have failed, and this is clearly reflected in the numbers that I am about to share with you.  We haven’t seen anything like this since the Great Recession, and if our economic troubles continue to accelerate during the months ahead 2026 is going to be a very messy year.

Earlier today I came across an article which explained that the number of small businesses that are filing for Subchapter V bankruptcy has set a brand new record high in 2025…

A six-year-old federal program designed to help the smallest American businesses cut debt and get a fresh start has set a record for the number of cases filed, court data show.

More than 2,200 people and small firms filed bankruptcy this year under the so-called Subchapter V rules, which make it cheaper and faster to win relief from creditors, according to data provider Epiq Bankruptcy Analytics.

“Creditors are just breathing down their necks,” said Carol Fox, a court-approved trustee who oversees more than two dozen cases filed in Southern Florida.

This is really bad news.

Small businesses are traditionally the primary engine for job growth in this country.

So the fact that so many of them are going belly up is not a good sign at all.

Meanwhile, large businesses are going bankrupt at a very alarming pace as well.

In fact, through the first seven months of this year the number of corporate bankruptcies in the United States was at the highest level that we have seen since the early days of the pandemic…

The U.S. saw a sharp increase in corporate bankruptcy filings in July, according to a recent report, reaching a post-COVID peak and placing 2025 on track to surpass last year’s total.

S&P Global Market Intelligence, the research and data arm of the credit-rating agency, found that filings by large public and private companies rose to 71 last month from 66 in June, marking the highest monthly tally since July 2020. So far in 2025, meanwhile, the total of 446 bankruptcy filings is the highest for this seven-month stretch since 2010.

When large numbers of businesses fail, hiring slows down and we typically see large scale layoffs all over the nation.

And that is precisely what is happening.

During a recent interview with Fox News, Nikki Haley’s son admitted that not a single one of his friends that recently graduated from college has been able to get a job…

“My friend group all graduated with great degrees in great schools, and not one of them has a job – not one. So it’s frustrating because they did everything that they were supposed to do. They put in the time, the effort, the money to get educated, and they don’t have a job to show for it. They have to compete with foreign workers who are willing to work for half their salary and AI, which is a supercomputer, so how can we compete with that?“

I was stunned when I read that.

I knew that things were bad for our recent college graduates, but I didn’t realize that they were this bad.

The job market is freezing up, and this is especially true for entry-level workers.

At this stage, AI is already doing much of the work that vast numbers of entry-level workers once did.

And a recent MIT study concluded that current AI technology could potentially replace 20 million more American workers…

In the midst of a soggy job market, there’s been a lengthy debate over whether contemporary AI is actually replacing workers — or just providing bosses with an excuse to lay off certain employees and offload their responsibilities onto the ones who remain.

The answer isn’t clear, but a new study out of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology is sure to add fuel to the fire. Analyzing 151 million American workers, the researchers calculated that today’s AI systems are already mature enough to automate the tasks of more than 20 million American workers, or 11.7 percent of the entire labor force, if they were fully deployed across the country.

So what is going to happen when AI and robots can do almost everything more efficiently than human workers can?

What will we be needed for then?

Our society is changing at a pace that is difficult to comprehend.

One tech worker that got laid off by Meta earlier this year still has not been able to find work nine months later…

When I got hired at Meta in 2020, it was life-changing for me as a single mom. It represented safety and stability — a place to work hard at and retire from.

So, when I was let go in February in a round of layoffs aimed at “low-performers,” it felt like a punch in the gut.

Nine months later, my severance and savings have run dry, I’m struggling to find a tech job, and I feel that the low-performer “label” is part of the reason. I’m no longer the same happy-go-lucky person I used to be, applying for jobs with excitement.

A few years ago, it was pretty easy to find a good paying job.

But now things have completely flipped around.

And even many of those that are employed are not making enough to be able to afford a decent lifestyle…

An American retail worker earns 51.6 percent less than the amount required to afford a typical rental apartment, real estate brokerage Redfin said in a statement released on Nov. 26.

“The typical retail worker in America earns $34,436 per year,” the company said.

“A renter would need to earn $71,172 to afford the typical apartment, which costs $1,779 per month.”

If you don’t make enough money to be able to pay rent on an apartment, what are your options?

I suppose that you could move in with your parents or live in a van down by the river.

By the way, there are millions of young Americans that are living in cars, vans and RVs today.  This is something that I have discussed extensively in previous articles.

Our standard of living is being eviscerated.

Meanwhile, those at the very top of the economic pyramid have more money than they know what to do with…

The top 1% have seen their wealth increase by $4 trillion over the past year, an increase of 7%. Their wealth hit a record $52 trillion in the second quarter.

The top 0.1% saw their wealth grow by 10% over the past year. Since the pandemic, the top 0.1%, or those with a net worth of at least $46 million, have seen their total wealth nearly double to over $23 trillion.

I keep trying to warn everyone that this is not going to end well.

There are millions upon millions of Americans that cannot make a decent living no matter how hard they try.

And the same thing is happening in countless other nations all over the globe.

I have never seen so much economic frustration among young adults as I am seeing right now.

Their anger is percolating just under the surface, and it won’t be too long before it explodes.

Michael’s new book entitled “10 Prophetic Events That Are Coming Next” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.

More than four years after pipe bombs appeared outside the RNC and DNC headquarters on January 5, 2021, and less than a month after The Blaze fingered a former Capitol Police officer in a now-retracted report (that their sources still stand by), the Trump administration announced the arrest of Brian Cole Jr., 30, of Woodbridge, Virginia, on Thursday. Cole has been charged under 18 U.S.C. § 844 for deploying an explosive device. 

During a press conference the day of the arrest, Attorney General Pam Bondi made it clear how this cold case was finally solved. According to Bondi, no new tips or witnesses led to the breakthrough – just persistent investigation and teamwork.

“Today’s arrest happened because the Trump Administration has made this case a priority. The total lack of movement on this case in our nation’s capital undermined the public trust of our enforcement agencies,” she said. “This cold case languished for four years until Director Patel and Deputy Director Bongino came to the FBI. The FBI, along with US Attorney Pirro and all of our prosecutors, have worked tirelessly for months sifting through evidence that had been sitting at the FBI with the Biden administration for four long years.”

BREAKING: Bondi says there was NO new tip. NO new witnesses. Just good, diligent police and prosecutorial work.

It was the TRUMP FBI that solved this CRITICAL cold case. 🚨 pic.twitter.com/p7jYCWaVQ9

— Townhall.com (@townhallcom) December 4, 2025

Deputy Director Bongino also appeared on Fox News Thursday night. He explained to Sean Hannity that the truth about the J6 pipe bomber case had been sitting in plain sight for years, and the problem wasn’t a lack of evidence but a lack of leadership. “It’s almost like they were intentionally trying to decimate faith in institutions,” he said.

“It’s horrifying,” he added. “I don’t know what they were doing.”

He explained that right after being sworn in – “probably 15 minutes later,” as he put it – he told the team, “When I get in there, I want a full brief on this pipe bomber case on day one.” Once he heard what had been done, he saw that the agents had put in real work, even “a pretty extensive amount of work,” but the case still needed urgent direction.

He blasted the old FBI brass for obsessing over politics while the case went cold. “I don’t know what the hell this prior leadership team was doing outside of… targeting political opponents, weaponizing the FBI, destroying its reputation,” he said. He argued that the agency’s credibility suffered because its leaders acted “almost like they were intentionally trying to decimate faith in institutions.”

According to Bongino, the agents had logged an enormous amount of legwork, including “thousands of leads, 6,000 plus interviews… hundreds of tips,” but the investigation had gone stale. He recalled pulling the case agent aside and telling him directly, “You’re gonna get me this guy… You’re gonna track this guy down, and you’re gonna find him. You’re gonna get me this guy. I want him.”

That order launched nearly nine months of work that led to the break they announced. He stressed that the success came from a full team effort across agencies. “You cannot do anything in the FBI without DOJ process,” he said, pointing to subpoenas, warrants, and filings handled by DOJ officials. He credited U.S. Attorney Pirro, Deputy Attorney General Blanche, and Attorney General Bondi, underscoring that “You cannot do anything in the FBI without DOJ process.” 

🚨 JUST IN — DAN BONGINO on why the Biden admin didn’t find the J6 pipe bomber:

“I don’t know WHAT THE HELL the prior leadership was doing outside of—you know—targeting political opponents, weaponizing the FBI, destroying its reputation…”

“It’s almost like they were… pic.twitter.com/61wa1HPzfK

— Nick Sortor (@nicksortor) December 5, 2025

Now, questions remain about why the Biden-led Justice Department did not act sooner, despite having all the evidence necessary to catch Cole. 

There is speculation that the Biden administration was more interested in tracking down and prosecuting peaceful January 6 protesters, which may have diverted resources from this case. Others speculate about possible deliberate stalling or withholding of information for political reasons. 

By Thursday evening, we learned more details about Cole. The Daily Wire described him as a left-leaning, black activist whose background challenges the mainstream narrative about January 6. According to the report, Cole worked for his father’s bail bond business, which specialized in helping illegal immigrants secure release from ICE custody. The family’s company even sued the Trump administration’s Department of Homeland Security over immigration policy, and later, Cole and his father reportedly enlisted attorney Benjamin Crump to pressure Joe Biden’s Department of Justice to investigate alleged racial discrimination by a local prosecutor. The story suggests that these connections cast doubt on the longstanding narrative that the pipe bombs linked to Cole were part of an organized right-wing plot tied to the Capitol riot.

Yet – ‘sources’ are now telling CNN and NBC News that Cole believed that the 2020 election was stolen – as they’re trying to make the case that he’s a Trump supporter. 

The Biden administration’s handling of the pipe bomb investigation will likely draw further scrutiny as more details emerge. 

Authored by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

AT&T told federal regulators this week that it has eliminated all diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) policies and programs across its business, becoming the latest major corporation to unwind such initiatives amid a broader shift toward merit-based employment practices and heightened scrutiny from the Trump administration.

In a Dec. 1 letter filed with the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) as part of AT&T’s bid to acquire U.S. Cellular spectrum licenses for roughly $1 billion, the company said it is “ending DEI-related policies … not just in name but in substance,” following recent executive orders, Supreme Court rulings, and guidance from the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission.

AT&T said it has adjusted its employment and business practices “to ensure that they comply with all applicable laws and related requirements,” AT&T wrote to FCC Chairman Brendan Carr, adding that its hiring, training, and promotion practices “are not and will not be based on or limited by race, gender, or other protected characteristics.”

The company said it removed all training related to DEI, scrubbed internal and external messaging referencing the concept, discontinued sponsorships it deemed unrelated to its business strategy, and stopped conducting employee surveys focused on protected characteristics. AT&T also said it no longer uses DEI considerations in selecting suppliers and “will not have any roles focused on DEI.”

“AT&T has always stood for merit-based opportunity, and we are pleased to reaffirm our commitment to equal employment opportunity and nondiscrimination today,” the company wrote. “Consistent with applicable law, our multi-pronged approach allows employees to thrive in an environment free from invidious discrimination.”

Carr, a Republican tapped by President Donald Trump in January to lead the FCC, praised the disclosure.

“AT&T has now memorialized its commitment to ending DEI-related policies in an FCC filing,” he wrote on X.

He added that the companywide rollback followed changes announced earlier this year after pressure from conservative activist Robby Starbuck, who urged AT&T to dismantle programs he argued were discriminatory.

FCC Commissioner Anna Gomez, a Democrat, criticized the move, saying in a social media post that AT&T’s reversal “isn’t a sudden transformation of values, but a strategic financial play to curry favor with this FCC/Administration.”

Gomez said that abandoning “fairness and inclusion for short-term gain will be a stain to their reputation long into the future.”

Part of a Broader Corporate Retreat

AT&T’s shift comes as major corporations reassess or eliminate DEI initiatives in response to new legal risks and regulatory scrutiny. Wireless carrier T-Mobile said in July it was ending its DEI programs while seeking approval for two major transactions, including a $4.4 billion deal to acquire most of U.S. Cellular’s wireless operations. Verizon agreed to end its DEI program in the context of its $20 billion acquisition bid for Frontier Communications earlier this year.

The trend also extends beyond the telecommunications sector. Ford, McDonald’s, John Deere, Walmart, Nissan, Toyota, Molson Coors, Citibank, and Meta are among the large employers that have recently rebranded, scaled back, or ended DEI programs, citing changing legal standards after the Supreme Court’s 2023 affirmative action ruling and sweeping executive actions by Trump directing federal agencies—and encouraging the private sector—to abandon race- and sex-based preferences.

Disney Softens DEI Language Amid FCC Probe

The rollback wave has reached Hollywood as well. The Walt Disney Co. removed virtually all DEI-related terminology from its 2025 annual report to the Securities and Exchange Commission—the first such omission in at least five years—even as the company faces an FCC investigation into whether its ABC and related networks violated federal equal employment opportunity rules.

Carr ordered the probe in March, citing Disney initiatives that sought to “amplify underrepresented voices” and inclusion standards requiring a high percentage of characters, writers, directors, and crew to come from “underrepresented” groups. He said the agency must ensure that such practices do not embed “identity quotas” in violation of the Communications Act.

Disney said it was reviewing the FCC’s letter and plans to cooperate.

As we have detailed extensively recently (here, here, and here), silver’s latest breakneck surge to record highs was in large part due to collapsing inventories of the precious metal in Chinese warehouses linked to the Shanghai Futures Exchange, which just hit the lowest level since 2015. 

The squeeze continues to accelerate and this morning the white metal topped $59 – a new record high…

…as rising rate-cut odds support the buying…

…and Chinese demand continues to build back inventories…

Strong inflows to exchange-traded funds added more impetus to a scorching rally, as Bloomberg reports, total additions to silver-backed ETFs in the four days through Thursday are already the highest for any full week since July, a strong signal of investor appetite despite signs silver’s gains may be overdone.

As Goldman notes, key catalysts for silver’s recent rise include a depletion of Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories plus growing expectations for a dovish, Trump-backed Fed Chair.

“These flows can quickly amplify price moves and trigger short-term short squeezes,” said Dilin Wu, research strategist at Pepperstone Group Ltd.

Silver prices have roughly doubled this year, outpacing a 60% rise in gold. The rally accelerated in the last two months, in part thanks to a historic squeeze in London. While that crunch has eased in recent weeks as more metal was shipped to the world’s biggest silver trading hub, other markets are now seeing supply constraints. Chinese inventories are near their lowest in a decade.

“Silver’s outsized rally signals it’s no longer gold’s quiet sidecar,” said Hebe Chen, an analyst at Vantage Markets in Melbourne.

“The market is waking up to structural scarcity and fast-rising industrial demand, not just the haven story.”

Silver could rise to $62 an ounce in the coming three months “on the back of Fed cuts, robust investment demand, and physical deficit,” Citigroup Inc. analysts including Max Layton wrote in a note.

Additionally, in the latest note from UBS, Dominic Schnider and Wayne Gordon raised their silver price forecasts by USD 5–8/oz, projecting average prices of USD 60/oz in 2026, with upside excursions toward USD 65/oz possible but unlikely to persist. 

“From a macro perspective, silver should benefit from the same drivers expected to support gold – a softer US dollar, Fed rate cuts, and renewed appetite for safe-haven assets amid geopolitical concerns,” said Ewa Manthey, a commodity strategist at ING Bank.

It’s not all easy riding from here though, as a “hawkish cut” could spur some profit-taking, and Goldman’s Robert Quinn notes that the annual commodity index rebalance looms with potential outflows representing 7-8% of total open interest.

Authored by Lance Roberts via Real Investment Advice,

With the federal government shutdown delaying critical economic reports, the official jobs data remains incomplete. Last week, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the September jobs report. However, the October report, originally expected earlier this month, remains in limbo, potentially permanently. The reason is due to the shutdown, as the BLS was unable to conduct the household survey. As such, the Fed will have to rely on alternative data for perspective on the strength or weakness of the labor market.

Therefore, in the absence of official jobs data, private-sector reports have become the best available gauge of labor market conditions. For example, the most recent ADP report showed only 42,000 private-sector jobs added in October. Crucially, it isn’t the “monthly number” that is crucial to consider, but the trend of the data. While there are undoubtedly many hopes for a resurgence of economic activity in 2026, the trend of employment data certainly doesn’t suggest that will be the case. At least not at the moment.

Another “real-time” source of jobs data is from Revelio Labs, which monitors job trends through company records and employee profiles. The most recent report from Revelio estimates a net decline of more than 9,000 jobs.

LinkUp, which tracks job listings, also reported a loss of 5,000 jobs in October.

While that data is certainly concerning on its own, according to the job posting site Indeed, the number of jobs being posted is also rolling over, with listings now back to 2021 levels, and year-over-year declines in postings in almost every sector they track.

While the BLS employment report is heavily flawed, it remains the standard by which the markets and the Fed act. However, the alternative shows that the slowdown in employment is widespread and not just a function of the Government shutdown. There is evidence of both job losses and a retraction of job openings across the entire economy. This includes logistics to healthcare, retail, and professional services. The hiring freezes are not isolated events, but reflect a structural shift in demand.

None of this indicates a labor collapse. But the shift in momentum is significant, and job creation is stalling with openings shrinking and layoffs rising. This slowdown often precedes broader economic weakness, suggesting that the Federal Reserve’s next monetary policy moves may be more focused on job creation than on concerns about inflation.

The Fed Must Weigh Jobs Data Against Inflation Risks

The Fed’s dual mandate, which is to achieve full employment and price stability, puts it in a difficult position right now. As noted above, there is clear evidence that economic weakness is increasing, with jobs data showing signs of weakening. On the other hand, inflation remains elevated, particularly in the services sector, with inflation expectations still above the Fed’s target.

For example, Fed Chair Jerome H. Powell recently said:

“In the near term, risks to inflation are tilted to the upside and risks to employment to the downside—a challenging situation…we remain committed to supporting maximum employment, bringing inflation sustainably to our 2 percent goal.”

At this juncture, the Fed must carefully assess the risks of its next policy moves. While softening jobs data suggests the employment objective is under threat, cutting rates and increasing monetary accommodation may spark a resurgence of inflation. However, if inflation remains high, the price-stability objective is under pressure; but higher inflation slows economic activity and employment. As President Mary C. Daly recently put it:

“At this point … the risks to the inflation side of our mandate and the risk to the employment side of our mandate are in better balance. And so, we have to be thoughtful about not loosening too early, but we have to be thoughtful about not holding too long.”

The Fed will likely place greater emphasis on alternative job data, wage trends, and inflation indicators in its next policy steps. Suppose these alternative signals continue to indicate a softening job market without wage inflation escalating. In that case, the Fed’s bias will likely tilt toward easing policy to prevent a sharper economic slowdown.

Looking back, the Fed has confronted similar scenarios when job growth weakened while inflation remained above target. In the minutes of a prior meeting, the Fed noted:

“A number of participants noted … although the labor market remained strong, … there was some risk that further cooling in labor market conditions could be associated with an increased pace of layoffs.”

In a more recent context, Powell said at the March 2025 Monetary Policy Forum:

“If the labor market were to weaken unexpectedly or inflation were to fall more quickly than anticipated, we can ease policy accordingly.”

That statement highlighted conditionality—policy is not on a preset course but rather depends on the data. However, it is a balancing act between cutting too much and not enough. Unfortunately, the Fed has a long history of doing both at the wrong times.

The problem for the Fed, as noted above, is that two mandates of full employment and price stability work against one another. To achieve full employment, prices will rise as economic activity increases. To reduce inflation, economic activity must slow, which in turn leads to fewer jobs being created. This is why the Fed consistently gets itself trapped in providing increasing or reducing accommodation to solve one problem, but creates a problem with the other.

What the Fed Will Likely Do Next

The Federal Reserve is staring at a familiar dilemma with the jobs data cooling and inflation remaining above target. Furthermore, it appears, at least outside the stock market, that traditional policy tools are becoming less effective in their impact.

We expect that over the coming months, the Fed will likely continue easing monetary policy at a cautious pace while reassuring the markets that it is remaining “data-driven.” The reality is that they are cutting policy in the hopes of stimulating economic growth, which could spark an inflationary uptick. However, with the risks of a deflationary impact from the onset of AI, demographic trends, and rising non-productive debt levels, the Fed continues to “push on a string.” While the October rate cut was a clear sign that officials are willing to respond to weakening economic conditions, the bar for navigating the current environment without a policy misstep remains exceptionally high.

However, we expect that the most likely path forward includes:

• Cut rates in December, unless inflation readings rise meaningfully.
• A return of focus to the BLS Employment reports
• Consider a second 25 bps cut in early 2026 if wage growth continues to decelerate, quits remain low, and layoffs continue to rise.
• Avoid aggressive rate cuts unless recession risks rise sharply. As Fed Chair Powell emphasized, the Fed won’t act prematurely: “We have to be careful not to move too soon or too late.”
• Continue to balance downside risks with increased attention to credit conditions, consumer delinquencies, and business investment data.

The Fed will avoid rushing into a complete easing cycle unless both components of its mandate, employment and inflation, clearly support that move. Right now, the labor market is flashing yellow, but not red. Inflation is sticky, but no longer accelerating; therefore, we expect the Fed’s policy approach to reflect this.

How Investors Should Prepare

Investors should expect volatility. With conflicting economic signals, markets are vulnerable to sharp swings in response to Federal Reserve comments, inflation reports, and any new labor market indications. The path forward is not linear.

Here’s what to watch for and how to position:

• Watch yield curves: If short-term yields fall further while long-term yields stabilize, the bond market is pricing in slower growth with softer inflation. This benefits duration-sensitive assets.
• Favor high-quality fixed income: Slower job growth and lower inflation expectations improve the risk/reward profile of investment-grade credit and Treasuries.
• Avoid chasing speculative assets: If the Fed remains cautious, liquidity conditions will stay tight. High-beta equities, unprofitable tech companies, and cryptocurrencies remain vulnerable.
• Look for relative value in defensive sectors: Healthcare, consumer staples, and utilities offer protection if economic weakness deepens.
• Stay flexible on equity allocation: Earnings forecasts may still be too optimistic. Slower jobs data often precedes revenue and margin pressure. Valuations remain elevated in many areas.
• Watch small-business indicators: Job postings, wage plans, and hiring intentions in the NFIB and other surveys will be critical signals of broader labor market trends.

More broadly, investors should prepare for a period where monetary policy lacks a clear anchor. With a Fed that’s hesitant to act too aggressively, markets will likely overreact to soft guidance, regional inflation trends, and real-time labor indicators.

The economy is not falling off a cliff, but the momentum is clearly weakening, and the job market’s directional change is real. That weakness also suggests that inflation is no longer the problem. For the first time in nearly two years, the Fed’s focus is shifting, slowly, from restraining prices to protecting employment. Unfortunately, at least from a historical view, they have not managed such a shift without negative consequences.

While “this time could be different,” I wouldn’t make aggressive bets on that outcome.

Iran’s elite Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) Navy launched ballistic and cruise missiles at mock targets in the Persian Gulf on Friday as part of an announced two-day military drill designed to demonstrate its readiness against external threats, state media indicates, at a time the region is still on edge following the last June 12-day war involving Iran, Israel, and the United States.

Tehran is seeking to signal to its enemies that it has both regrouped and reconstituted its missiles and military assets after many hundreds of drones and ballistic missiles – including potentially hypersonic projectiles – were expended against Israel.

The new exercise includes ‘live fire’ drills, as the navy is launching volleys of ballistic and cruise missiles aimed at targets in the Oman Sea, state media reported on Friday. State media has identified that Qadr 110, Qadr 380 and Qadir cruise missiles, along with the 303 ballistic missile, have also been fired from inside Iran against sea targets off the coast.

Drone waves are also being deployed again mock enemy bases and targets, with part of the exercises focused on how to quickly respond to aerial threats against fast boats and coastal positions. One new aspect to the drills is that commanders are now touting AI-based operational capabilities.

Iran’s military has been busy seeking to demonstrate its capabilities of late, as earlier this week Iran conducted an anti-terrorism exercise in East Azerbaijan province alongside members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. Press TV said the drills are a warning to adversaries that “any miscalculation would receive a decisive response.“

According to some recent conclusions in the wake of the June war, the establishment think tank Soufan Center writes:

• Iran shows no signs of altering its core policies despite the damage done by Israel and the United States to Iran’s strategic architecture.
• A continuation of Iran’s existing policies is unlikely to bring the sanctions relief that moderate leaders such as elected President Masoud Pezeshkian deem vital to addressing economic deterioration.
• Iran is resisting Trump’s pressure to dismantle its uranium enrichment infrastructure while leaving the door open to renewed diplomacy with the U.S. and its European allies.
• Tehran is developing new methods and routes to resupply its Axis of Resistance partners, particularly Lebanese Hezbollah and the Houthis in Yemen.

On Friday Iranian lawmaker Fada-Hossein Maleki was quoted in international press reports as saying that the Trump administration had reached out, saying the US is open to new negotiations. He said whether to engage or not is the Supreme Leader’s final decisions, while noting that “we tried every path, but in the end it led to war and the wall of distrust only grew higher.”

Iranian state media put out footage of the new Gulf area drills Friday:

Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Navy fired ballistic and cruise missiles at simulated targets in the Gulf during a two-day exercise meant to counter foreign threats.

The drills included mass launches of Qadr-series cruise and ballistic missiles, along with drone strikes on mock… pic.twitter.com/fUWN5d1tHp

— Clash Report (@clashreport) December 5, 2025

Maleki warned that Iran remains ready for any possible escalation. “We are far more prepared than before,” he said.  Maleki admitted that while Iran suffered significant losses in the opening hours of the June surprise attack from Israel, at least “the enemy knows our readiness now.”

Stock futures rise as investors look ahead to Friday’s release of the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the core PCE, a reading that may help shape next week’s rate outlook as the BoJ charts its own divergent policy course. As of *;15am ET, S&P 500 futures were 0.2% higher and on pace for the 9th gain in 10 days; Nasdaq 100 futures are +0.3% as Mag 7 names are mostly higher premarket, led by META (+0.6%), AMZN (+0.5%) and NVDA (+0.5%). Tech sentiment got a boost after Nvidia partner Hon Hai Precision Industry reported strong sales. Moore Threads, a leading Chinese AI chipmaker, jumped 425% in its Shanghai trading debut. Netflix meanwhile, fell in the premarket after agreeing a tie-up with Warner Bros, acquiring HBO. Bond yields are modestly higher; the USD is flat. Commodities are mixed: oil and base metals are lower, while precious metals are higher. US economic calendar includes September personal income/spending and PCE inflation gauges and December preliminary University of Michigan sentiment (10am New York time) and October consumer credit (3pm

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mostly higher (Meta +0.5%, Nvidia +0.4%, Alphabet +0.4%, Microsoft +0.3%, Amazon +0.4%, Tesla unchanged, Apple unchanged).

• Cooper Cos (COO) rises 13% after the health-care company’s guidance for 2026 adjusted earnings per share topped the average analyst estimate. The company also launched a strategic review.
• Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co. (HPE) drops 8% after the company gave an outlook for sales in the current quarter that fell short of high expectations for the AI server business.
• ITT Inc. (ITT) slips 2% after agreeing to acquire industrial equipment manufacturer SPX Flow Inc. from Lone Star Funds in a $4.775 billion cash and stock deal.
• Netflix (NFLX) slips 1.3% after agreeing to buy Warner Bros. Discovery Inc. in a historic combination, joining the world’s dominant paid streaming service with one of Hollywood’s oldest and most revered studios. Shares of Warner Bros. (WBD) are up 1.5%.
• Parsons (PSN) tumbles 15% after the US Federal Aviation Administration and the Department of Transportation awarded the Brand New Air Traffic Control System contract to Peraton.
• Rubrik (RBRK) rallies 18% after the cybersecurity firm raised its revenue forecast for 2026 while narrowing its view for adjusted losses per share.
• SentinelOne (S) falls 8% after the software firm’s fourth-quarter outlook missed expectations. It also initiated a search for a new chief financial officer.
• SoFi Technologies (SOFI) is down 7% after the online lender’s offering of 54.5m shares.
• Ulta Beauty Inc. (ULTA) rises 6% after raising its full-year outlook and reporting better-than-expected results in the third quarter, a sign that consumers are overcoming any reluctance to spend and shelling out for cosmetics and hair supplies.
• Victoria’s Secret (VSCO) climbs 12% after the company reported better-than-expected sales and lifted its outlook for the year, a sign that its turnaround strategy is working.

In corporate news, Perplexity AI says billionaire Cristiano Ronaldo has become an investor. Cloudflare is investigating issues with dashboard and related APIs.

Futures on the US benchmark rose on Friday after the index closed within 0.5% of a fresh record. The gauge is set for its first back-to-back weekly gain since October, signaling that traders are shaking off recent jitters over valuations and the lack of visibility on the economy during the government shutdown. Yet in a notable change from recent trends, tech hasn’t led the recent rally, and with sector participation broadening, the market’s advance may continue – even as the economic data underpinning the move exhibits a “split screen,” with non-jobs data surprising to the upside.

With a rate cut next week largely priced in and bets pointing to further easing into 2026, investors are gearing up for a year-end rally in what is typically a supportive month for stocks. Growing confidence that the US economy remains resilient, despite softer employment, is also prompting rotations into stocks that tend to benefit from domestic strength.

“Santa will bring presents for everybody, toys for the kids and gains for investors,” said Stephan Kemper, chief investment strategist at BNP Paribas Wealth Management. “Apart from the regular seasonality there are plenty of other reasons supporting the market: rate cuts and ongoing M&A activity are some of them.”

Bloomberg Economics Chief Economist Tom Orlik expects a dovish Fed to cut rates another 100 basis points in 2026, adding support to the AI investment upswing. A bonfire of regulations will also stoke growth and together with gradual price pass-through from tariffs, these factors will keep inflation above target. Kevin Hassett said the Fed should cut rates next week and said he wanted to “get to a much lower rate” over the long run.

Later on Friday, markets will a get a dated reading on the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge. The figures will include the personal consumption expenditures price index and a core measure that excludes food and energy. Economist project a third-straight 0.2% increase in the core index for September. That would keep the year-over-year figure hovering a little below 3%, a sign that inflationary pressures are stable, yet sticky.

While the data is unlikely to derail a December rate cut, it “may change the tone from Chairman Powell,” said Wolf von Rotberg, equity strategist at Bank J Safra Sarasin. “If he emphasizes inflation risks in his press conference, markets may reprice the rate trajectory for 2026, thereby increasing the pressure on the long end of the curve and on equity market valuations.”

BofA strategist Michael Hartnett notes bond vigilantes have effectively become the new regulators of AI capex. 
Nvidia partner Hon Hai reported a 26% sales jump in November, suggesting robust demand for AI servers amid a broader development boom. Moore Threads Technology, a leading Chinese AI chipmaker, jumped 425% in its Shanghai trading debut after raising 8 billion yuan ($1.13 billion).

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 is up 0.3%, rising for a fourth day and hitting a three-week high in the process. Financial services, autos and construction are leading gains while energy is a drag after downgrades in the sector from JPMorgan.  Here are some of the biggest movers on Friday:

• UCB shares jump as much as 8.2% after the Belgian biopharma company lifted its guidance for the full year.
• Renk rises as much as 5.7% as Bank of America double upgrades the shares to buy, citing an attractive valuation.
• Ocado shares rise as much as 16% after the online grocer said it will receive a $350 million cash payment from Kroger to compensate for the US grocer’s decision to close three automated warehouses and to not go ahead with another.
• Trustpilot shares jump as much as 11% after Morgan Stanley raised the stock to overweight a day after the stock was targeted by short seller Grizzly Research, saying the company’s user reviews hold unique value against increasing content from generative AI.
• Swiss Re drops as much as 7.6% after announcing targets for 2026, with analysts seeing both the buyback and group net income guidance as “underwhelming.”
• Big Yellow Group shares drop as much as 6% after talks about a possible takeover offer from Blackstone collapsed.
• Baltic Classifieds shares drop as much as 5.1% after analysts cut their price target on the online platform.
• OVH Groupe shares drop as much as 15% after an investor offloaded shares in the IT services company at a discount to yesterday’s close.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks reversed earlier losses as investors await key US economic data later Friday. Japan markets closed lower amid profit-taking following strong gains in the previous session. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 0.3%, boosted by TSMC, Samsung Electronics and SoftBank Group. The gauge is on track for a second straight week of gains. Shares advanced in India after the central bank cut interest rate and signaled an openness for further easing. Benchmarks in Japan fell more than 1%. Chinese chipmakers are coming into focus, with Moore Threads surging 425% in its Shanghai trading debut after raising 8 billion yuan ($1.13 billion), the second-largest onshore IPO of the year. Elsewhere in the region, Philippine inflation slowed in November, supporting another cut in benchmark interest rates as a graft scandal shattered consumer and investor confidence. Markets were closed in Thailand. 

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index falls 0.1%. The yen is lower, having erased an earlier gain of 0.5%, seen after Bloomberg reported reported Bank of Japan officials are ready to raise interest rates at a policy meeting later this month. The Aussie is leading gains against the greenback, up 0.4%.

In rates, treasuries drop across the curve, following similar price action across European bonds in the wake of strong October German factory orders and French industrial production data. Treasury long-end yields are about 1.5bp higher on the day, steepening curve spreads by less than a basis point. US 10-year yield is near 4.11%, about 1bp cheaper on the day, broadly in line with bunds and gilts. Focal points of US session include PCE inflation gauge derived from September personal income and spending data, in release delayed by last month’s US government shutdown. IG dollar bond issuance slate is blank so far after just one offering was priced Thursday, however $26 billion was priced over the first three days of this week by 23 issuers — one of the strongest starts to a December. Treasury auctions resume Monday with $58 billion 3-year new issue, followed by $39 billion 10-year and $22 billion 30-year reopenings Tuesday and Thursday, skipping over Wednesday’s Fed policy announcement.

In commodities, oil prices are steady, with WTI crude futures near $59.50 a barrel. Spot gold rises $18. Bitcoin falls 0.8%. 

Looking to the day ahead now, US data releases include PCE inflation for September, and the University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment index for December, all at 10am ET. We also get German factory orders and French industrial production for October, and Canada’s employment report for November. Finally from central banks, we’ll hear from the ECB’s Villeroy and Lane.

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini +0.2%
• Nasdaq 100 mini +0.4%
• Russell 2000 mini little changed
• Stoxx Europe 600 +0.3%
• DAX +0.5%
• CAC 40 +0.3%
• 10-year Treasury yield +1 basis point at 4.11%
• VIX little changed at 15.75
• Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1213.14
• euro little changed at $1.1652
• WTI crude -0.2% at $59.53/barrel

Top Overnight News

• A divided Supreme Court cleared Texas to use its new Republican-drawn congressional map for the 2026 midterm election, overruling a lower court order and bolstering GOP hopes of picking up as many as five new House seats in the state. BBG
• The US is prioritizing a stable trade dynamic with China despite a push by some allies for coordinated action against Beijing, USTR Jamieson Greer said. BBG
• President Trump has issued a new national-security strategy that sharply criticizes the “unrealistic expectations” of European leaders for settling the war in Ukraine and calls for an end to NATO expansion. WSJ
• A bipartisan Senate bill seeks to block Nvidia from shipping advanced AI chips to China. The legislation proposes a 30-month halt on export licenses to US adversaries. BBG
• US Homeland Security Secretary Noem said the Trump administration is expanding the countries on the travel ban to over 30: Fox News.
• BOJ officials are ready to raise the policy rate at this month’s meeting — taking it to its highest level since 1995 — provided there’s no major shocks in the meantime, people familiar said. The yen strengthened. BBG
• China’s exports likely returned to growth in November after an unexpected dip in October, as manufacturers rushed to move inventory to take advantage of a fresh tariff truce with the U.S. RTRS
• The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) cut its key repo rate by 25 basis points on Friday and left the door open for further easing as it took steps to boost banking-sector liquidity by up to $16 billion to support a “goldilocks” economy. RTRS
• The Dutch pensions overhaul looks set to push European nations to sell fewer long-dated bonds. Changes may be announced in coming weeks as governments unveil their 2026 issuance plans. BBG
• Netflix to Acquire Warner Bros. Following the Separation of Discovery Global for a Total Enterprise Value of $82.7 Billion (Equity Value of $72.0 Billion).
• Morgan Stanley forecasts a 25bps Fed cut in December (prev. forecast unchanged). Cuts in January and April 2026, a terminal of 3.00-3.25%.
• Federal Reserve Board announced a new pricing for payment services provided to banks and credit unions, effective 1st January 2026, while Fed’s Bowman emphasised the importance of checks as a payment method and said the Fed cannot endorse the RFI regarding the future of check services.

Company News

• Dell (DELL) reportedly plans a price hike of 15-20% from mid-December and Lenovo (992 HK) from January 2026, according to TrendForce, citing sources.
• Cloudflare (NET) announced service issues have been resolved, according to the status page. Following issues that lasted for around 30 minutes.
• Baidu (9888 HK/ BIDU) reportedly weighs a Hong Kong IPO for its AI chip unit Kunlunxin, to rival NVIDIA (NVDA), according to Bloomberg, citing sources; unit could be valued in excess of USD 3bln
• Apple (AAPL), Google (GOOGL) and Samsung (005930 KS) have asked the Indian Government not to accept telecom proposal over privacy concerns and regulatory overreach, according to Reuters, citing sources.

Trade/Tariffs

• US Trade Representative Greer said trade with China needs to be balanced and probably needs to be smaller, while he added they want to have stability in the relationship with China, and that the US trade deficit in goods with China is down about 25%, which is the right direction.
• USTR Greer also noted there are problems with the US-Mexico-Canada Trade Agreement and that they already have adjustments to some of these challenges, as well as stated that the US wants to make sure that Canada and Mexico aren’t used as an export hub for China, Vietnam or Indonesia, among others.
• China’s Foreign Ministry Spokesperson said that China has repeatedly stated its position on the issue of US chip exports to China, via Global Times.
• Chinese drone maker DJI urged the Trump administration to complete audits or extend the deadline for the security review, according to a letter to Congress.
• China and France issued a joint statement on agricultural cooperation and signed an MOU on registration of infant milk powder formulas, according to Xinhua.
• Japanese Trade Minister Akazawa said they are monitoring US tariff lawsuit developments and he confirmed that Japanese companies have filed lawsuits in the US seeking refunds of additional tariffs.
• Russian President Putin said Russia is ready to provide uninterrupted fuel supplies to India. Russia and India express interest in deepening cooperation in the exploration, processing and refining technologies for critical minerals and rare earths.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mixed with the regional bourses mostly rangebound, amid light fresh catalysts ahead of US PCE data. ASX 200 edged higher but with gains capped as strength in the mining and materials sectors was partially offset by weakness in consumer discretionary, energy and telecoms, while price action was also contained by the absence of any pertinent data. Nikkei 225 underperformed amid the increased BoJ December rate hike bets and after dismal Household Spending data, which showed a surprise contraction. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp saw two-way price action with early headwinds following another consecutive liquidity drain by the PBoC and reports that US senators seek to block NVIDIA (NVDA) sales of advanced chips to China for 30 months, which would target NVIDIA’s H200 and Blackwell chips.

Top Asian News

• BoJ is said to likely hike this month and leave the door open to more, while the central bank is to check the data and market moves up to the final decision, according to Bloomberg.
• Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Kihara said they will take appropriate steps on excessive and disorderly moves in the FX market if necessary. Expects the BoJ to conduct monetary policy in an appropriate manner.
• Japan’s Economy Minister Kiuchi said the inflationary impact of the stimulus package will likely be limited. The government will keep an eye on market moves with a high sense of urgency. Important for stocks, FX and bond markets to move in line with fundamentals. Specific monetary policy means is up to the BoJ, and the Government will not comment. Hopes the BoJ guides appropriate monetary policy to stably achieve the 2% inflation target.
• Hong Kong’s Court endorsed a proposal allowing Country Garden Holdings (2007 HK) to extend repayment of USD 17.7bln in offshore debt.
• China’s Commerce Minister said China will ramp up efforts to expand imports, via Xinhua. The Commerce Minister will also expand service consumption, increase implementation of inclusive policies that directly reach consumers, expand auto consumption and promote renewal consumption of home appliances and eliminate restrictive measures.
• RBI cut the Repurchase Rate by 25bps to 5.25%, as expected, with the decision unanimous and it maintained a neutral stance although MPC member Ram Singh wanted the stance to be changed to accommodative from neutral, while the Marginal Lending Facility Rate was lowered by 25bps to 5.50% and the Standing Deposit Facility Rate was reduced by 25bps to 5.00%.

European bourses trade modestly firmer, with little macro news to steer price action. Sentiment follows on from a mixed and quiet APAC session. European sectors mostly reside in the green, led by Financial Services, Basic Resources, Construction and Chemicals. Higher metal prices—particularly copper—help underpin sentiment in Basic Resources, while broader macro flow remains light.

Top European News

• Regulators at the BoE announce plans to support the growth of the mutuals sector. Measures include: A PRA and FCA review of mutual credit union regulations, considering more risk-based requirements for larger, complex firms and proportionality for smaller credit unions.

FX

• DXY has unwound most of its earlier losses. Initially hit by a firmer JPY on the back of more hawkish BoJ sources, coupled with verbal intervention (see below for details). The JPY reaction took DXY down to a 98.805 intraday trough (vs 99.075 APAC high), although since newsflow quietened and despite a stable risk environment, the JPY waned and DXY now attempts to reclaim 99.00 to the upside at the time of writing. The index, however, remains within yesterday’s 98.765-99.08 ahead of the September US PCE, which was delayed by the US government shutdown.
• JPY has surrendered most of its earlier gains after an initial surge triggered by Bloomberg sources suggesting the BoJ is likely to hike this month while keeping the door open to further tightening. The reports briefly pushed USD/JPY below 154.50. This was followed by verbal intervention from Chief Cabinet Secretary Kihara, who reiterated that authorities would take appropriate steps against excessive or disorderly FX moves if needed. USD/JPY subsequently touched a 154.34 low before rebounding and stalling just shy of 155.00, despite limited follow-through newsflow and a stable risk backdrop.
• AUD is the top gainer, lifted by a surge in copper prices and earlier USD softness, though both AUD and copper later eased off highs as the dollar attempted a recovery. The AUD/NZD cross extended its rebound, pushing back above 1.1450 and trading toward the upper end of a 1.1461–1.1484 range.
• Other G10s vary and continue to take their cue from broader USD moves, though EUR saw a couple of brief upticks after slight upward revisions to Eurozone Q3 GDP and Employment. EUR/USD now trades mid-range within 1.1640–1.1672.

Fixed Income

• USTs remain flat in a thin 112-22+ to 112-27+ band. Traders look ahead to US PCE at 15:00 GMT / 10:00 ET, a release that will feed into the debate around a potential December Fed cut. Odds of such a move have climbed above 85% in recent sessions, up from the low-60% range a month ago, aided by comments from Fed’s Williams, who said policymakers have room for another adjustment in the “near term.”
• JGBs were hit overnight on further hawkish BoJ source reports, with market-implied odds of a December hike nearing 80%. The 10yr Japanese future fell over 20 ticks to a 133.91 trough before stabilising. Since then, bonds have held in tighter ranges as attention turns to US PCE.
• Bunds were marginally softer in a 128.29–128.52 range as markets awaited the 11:30 GMT Bundestag pension vote, which is now widely expected to pass after Die Linke signalled it will abstain—lowering the effective majority threshold and reducing the relevance of dissent within the CDU/CSU’s Young Group. The vote remains a key barometer of Chancellor Merz’s coalition stability.

Commodities

• WTI and Brent continue to trade in tight ranges with European trade underway, and following an overnight session devoid of crude-specific catalysts. Early-door comments from a Kremlin aide noted that Russia and the US are progressing in Ukraine-related talks and that Moscow is ready for further engagement, though this echoed recent rhetoric and left crude benchmarks largely unreactive pending fresh developments.
• Spot Gold found support near USD 4,200/oz in early APAC trade and steadily climbed to a USD 4,231/oz peak as Europe opened. The overnight bid was helped by weakness in the Dollar, with JPY strength driven by reports of a potential December BoJ rate hike. Since the European open, the Dollar has begun to recover, but XAU continues to hold near session highs.
• 3M LME Copper extended its rally to fresh record highs after Thursday’s consolidation in a tight USD ~180/t band. The contract opened just below USD 11.45k/t before buyers immediately stepped in, driving prices to a new all-time high at USD 11.7k/t as Europe opened.
• Discounts for Russian ESPO blend crude oil delivered to China have widened to USD 5-6/bbl vs ICE Brent due to falling demand, according to Reuters

Geopolitics: Middle East

• Hamas Leader to Al-Arabiya: “The Movement Does Not Want to Continue to Rule Gaza … We Agreed to Form a Technocratic Committee to Govern Gaza”.
• US President Trump plans to announce before Christmas the transition to phase 2 of the agreement to end the war in Gaza and the establishment of the new governing body that will manage the strip, according to Axios’s Ravid.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

• Russia’s Kremlin said Moscow is waiting for the US reaction after Putin-Witkoff meeting, while it added that there is no plan for a Putin-Trump call for now.
• Russian Kremlin aide said Russia and the US are moving forward in talks relating to Ukraine. Ready for further work with the current US negotiating team.
• The US has urged the EU to oppose the plan to use frozen Russian central bank assets to back a massive loan to Ukraine, via Bloomberg Sources.
• UK ministers are prepared to unlock GBP 8bln of frozen Russian assets to aid Ukraine, according to The Times.

Geopolitics: Other

• US military said it conducted a lethal kinetic strike on a vessel in international waters in the eastern Pacific on Thursday.

US Event Calendar

• 10:00 am: Sep Personal Income, est. 0.3%, prior 0.4%
• 10:00 am: Sep Personal Spending, est. 0.3%, prior 0.6%
• 10:00 am: Sep Real Personal Spending, est. 0.1%, prior 0.4%
• 10:00 am: Sep PCE Price Index MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.3%
• 10:00 am: Sep PCE Price Index YoY, est. 2.8%, prior 2.7%
• 10:00 am: Sep Core PCE Price Index MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.2%
• 10:00 am: Sep Core PCE Price Index YoY, est. 2.8%, prior 2.9%
• 10:00 am: Dec P U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 52, prior 51
• 3:00 pm: Oct Consumer Credit, est. 10.48b, prior 13.09b

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Markets saw a modest risk-on move yesterday, as a decent batch of US data saw investors price in fewer rate cuts next year. That optimism meant the S&P 500 (+0.11%) advanced for a third consecutive session, closing less than half a percent beneath its record high, while the VIX index of volatility (-0.30pts) fell to a two-month low of 15.78. Moreover, futures are pointing to a further advance this morning, with those on the S&P 500 up another +0.20% overnight, which would take the index even closer to its October record.  However, more hawkish expectations meant bonds struggled, and the 10yr Treasury yield (+3.5bps) hit a two-week high of 4.10%. Meanwhile, those bond losses echoed around the world, not least after multiple reports suggested the Bank of Japan was on the verge of another rate hike in a couple of weeks’ time. So yesterday saw 10yr JGB yields close at a post-2007 high of 1.93%, and they’re up another +1.1bps this morning to 1.94%.

That US data helped to drive the hawkish repricing, because it suggested the labour market was in a more robust position than previously thought. For instance, the weekly initial jobless claims fell to just 191k in the week ending November 29 (vs. 220k expected). Clearly it’s worth noting that we often see distortions in these numbers around the Thanksgiving holiday, so we shouldn’t overegg the improvement, but it was still a promising sign. Indeed, the 4-week moving average fell to its lowest since January, at just 214.75k. And in other news, the report on announced layoffs from Challenger, Gray & Christmas found there were fewer layoffs than expected, with a rise of +23.5% year-on-year in November (vs. +48.0% expected). So collectively, those releases suggested the US labour market was in a slightly better position than previously thought, despite the broader signs of softening we’ve seen recently. In addition, those releases matter more than usual for the Fed next week, because the data backlog from the shutdown means we won’t get the November jobs report as originally scheduled today, and instead have to wait until December 16.

With that in mind, investors adjusted their expectations in a hawkish direction for the coming months. For instance, even though a December cut is priced above 90%, there was growing scepticism that would be followed up by another, with the total amount of cuts priced by March 2026 down -1.8bps on the day to 39bps. And looking further out, the amount of rate cuts priced by the December 2026 meeting came down -5.2bps on the day to 86bps. So that shift in expectations meant Treasuries lost ground across the curve, with the 2yr yield (+3.8bps) up to 3.52%, whilst the 10yr yield (+3.5bps) rose to 4.10%.

In the meantime, the newsflow out of Japan also goes some way to explaining the latest bond selloff, as markets have become increasingly confident the BoJ will hike again this month. First, there was a Reuters report shortly before we went to press yesterday, which said the BoJ would likely hike rates this month, and the government would tolerate the move. Then a few hours later, Bloomberg similarly reported that key members of the government wouldn’t try to stop the BoJ from hiking in December. So that meant the Japanese yen strengthened against other major currencies yesterday, and this morning it’s strengthened back above 155 per dollar to 154.89.

That newsflow has continued overnight, with Bloomberg reporting this morning that BoJ officials are ready to hike rates at the next meeting, “provided there’s no major shock to the economy or financial markets in the meantime”. Moreover, the article said that the BoJ would indicate that further rate hikes would follow if its outlook for the economy were realised. So if they do proceed, that would take the policy rate up to 0.75%, the highest since 1995. That’s led to a hawkish reaction among Japanese assets, with the yen strengthening +0.18% this morning against the US Dollar, whilst the Nikkei is down -1.29%. And the yield curve has steepened as well, with the 5yr yield (+2.2bps) up to a post-2008 high of 1.42% this morning.

Elsewhere in Asia, we’ve seen a more mixed performance this morning. So the KOSPI (+1.23%) has posted a strong advance, but the CSI 300 (+0.11%) and the Shanghai Comp (+0.05%) have only posted a modest gain, whilst the Hang Seng (-0.06%) is slightly lower. Meanwhile in India, the central bank cut rates by 25bps in line with expectations, taking the repurchase rate down to 5.25%.

All that follows on from a pretty subdued session for US equities yesterday, with the S&P 500 (+0.11%) posting a third consecutive advance. That left the index just -0.49% beneath its record closing high from late-October, whilst other indices like the NASDAQ (+0.22%) and the Magnificent 7 (+0.53%) also moved higher. In terms of specifics, Meta (+3.43%) rose after a Bloomberg report said that executives were considering budget cuts up to as much as 30% for the metaverse group. Meanwhile, Dollar General (+14.01%) was the top performer in the S&P after raising their full-year outlook. However, some of the more defensive sectors in the S&P 500 struggled, with consumer staples (-0.73%) and healthcare (-0.73%) both losing ground. Futures on the S&P 500 are pointing to further gains this morning, with a +0.20% advance.

Earlier in Europe, equities had put in an even stronger performance, with the STOXX 600 (+0.45%) closing less than 1% beneath its own record high. That was echoed across the continent, where the DAX (+0.79%) and the CAC 40 (+0.43%) also rose, whilst Spain’s IBEX 35 (+0.97%) hit an all-time high. As in the US however, sovereign bonds struggled, with yields on 10yr bunds (+2.4bps), OATs (+3.2bps) and BTPs (+2.2bps) all moving higher. Finally in the commodity space, Brent crude rose +1.02% to $63.31/bbl as investors weighed ongoing risks to Russian oil supply. 

To the day ahead now, and US data releases include PCE inflation for September, and the University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment index for December. Otherwise, we’ll get German factory orders and French industrial production for October, and Canada’s employment report for November. Finally from central banks, we’ll hear from the ECB’s Villeroy and Lane.

Authored by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times,

A new Gallup poll shows that U.S. consumer confidence deteriorated sharply in November, falling to its weakest level in 17 months as households contended with a protracted federal government shutdown, volatile financial markets, cooling job prospects, and renewed inflation anxiety.

The gloomier mood—reflected in Gallup’s Dec. 4 poll and aligning with several other major sentiment surveys—coincided with a pullback in Americans’ holiday spending plans, raising concerns about softer momentum heading into the final weeks of 2025.

Gallup’s economic confidence index fell seven points to –30 in November, its weakest reading since July 2024. The drop reflected dimmer views of both current conditions and the outlook: 21 percent of Americans called the economy “excellent” or “good,” while 40 percent said it is “poor.”

Expectations slipped further, with just 27 percent saying the economy is improving—down from 31 percent in October—and 68 percent saying it is getting worse.

The downturn marks a notable reversal from the relative stability seen for much of the year.

After improving through late 2024 on post-election optimism, the index had hovered between –14 and –22 for most of 2025 before slipping in October and then tumbling last month. At -30, November’s sentiment reading is well above the recent low of -58 notched in June 2022, when inflation soared to a recent peak of 9 percent and sent confidence plummeting. The lowest the gauge has ever hit is -72, in October 2008, during the financial crisis.

Historic Pullback in Holiday Spending Plans

Consumers’ heightened economic anxiety in November translated into a far smaller appetite for holiday gift spending than earlier in the season. Gallup found that Americans have cut their expected holiday budgets by $229 since October – the largest midseason drop the organization has ever recorded, surpassing even the $185 decline during the 2008 financial crisis.

Despite the sharp contraction in projected spending, only 29 percent of Americans say they plan to spend less than last year, up from 23 percent in October but still far below the 46 percent who reported plans to cut back in November 2008.

Labor market sentiment also softened meaningfully. Just a third of Americans (33 percent) said it is a good time to find a quality job, the weakest reading since January 2021, when COVID-19 lockdowns were pressuring labor markets. Views on job availability have worsened steadily through the fall, mirroring private-sector payroll data showing a broad pullback in hiring.

ADP Research reported this week that the private sector shed 32,000 jobs in November—the weakest showing since early 2023—driven largely by steep losses at small firms. Wage gains continued to cool, with year-over-year pay growth easing to 4.4 percent in November from the prior month’s 4.5 percent pace of growth.

Other gauges of economic activity suggest a mixed backdrop. The Conference Board’s consumer confidence gauge slid to 88.7, its lowest since April, and expectations remained mired below the recession-warning threshold for a tenth consecutive month.

Michigan’s sentiment survey showed a double-digit plunge in current conditions and weaker buying plans for big-ticket goods. JPMorganChase Institute data showed real household income growth slowed to 1.6 percent in October, leaving consumers heading into the holidays with flat bank balances and limited purchasing-power gains.

These readings reflect sentiment shaped by the 43-day federal government shutdown, which delayed pay for federal workers, disrupted flights, and halted key benefit programs, adding strain to household finances. Michigan’s consumer sentiment index fell to 50.3 in November, its lowest since June 2022, as respondents reported worsening personal finances and growing anxiety about the shutdown’s broader economic fallout.

Retail Spending Cools but Continues to Grow

Retail activity has cooled, though it has continued to expand. The latest government data—interrupted by the shutdown—indicate slower sales in September, and while private-sector card spending figures from the Bank of America Institute show relatively solid year-over-year gains in October, some of that strength was buoyed by higher prices rather than higher volumes.

Despite the sour near-term mood, forecasters remain cautiously optimistic about next year. A recent National Association for Business Economics outlook sees 2026 growth improving to 2 percent, supported by resilient consumer spending and firmer business investment.

Similarly, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has raised its U.S. growth forecast, with the 38-country group saying the upgrade reflects exceptional rates of investment in information processing equipment, software, and data center construction, helping offset cooling job growth and other headwinds.