The Russian-US negotiations on the Ukraine conflict concluded in the Kremlin after some five hours of intense negotiations, which had reportedly gone late into the night. Russian presidential aide Yury Ushakov indicated the US side of Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner presented four more documents concerning the peace settlement during the Kremlin talks; however, a sticking point remains territory.

“Some American proposals are acceptable to Russia, while others are not,” the aide stated bluntly. Crucially he at one point responded to a question of whether peace had become closer or further following these talks, to which Ushakov responded, “Definitely not further.”

“Territorial issues were discussed specifically, without which we do not see a resolution of the crisis,” Ushakov told reporters immediately after the meeting. “Of course, the enormous prospects for future economic co-operation between the two countries were also discussed.”

This latter point of cooperation between the US and Russia has “vast potential” – Ushakov said, suggesting the Kremlin doesn’t see the peace deal as where it wants it to be in terms of territorial settlement. The US-backed draft peace plan offers that Crimea, Luhansk and Donetsk would be recognized “as de facto Russian, including by the United States.” However, Ukraine and other countries would not need to recognize Russian control by law, but Moscow legally sees them as part of the Russian Federation after the wartime ‘popular referendums’ held in the fall of 2022.

The draft also calls to freeze the front lines of fighting where they are in the southern oblasts of Kherson and Zaporizhzia, with Russia having relinquish other areas such as the Kharkiv and Sumy regions in the northeast, as well the Mykolaiv region in the south. Overall the lengthy session was deemed by the Russian side as “productive” – with Ushakov also saying “We discussed the substance, not specific wording and solutions. The parties see enormous potential for cooperation.”

“As for a possible meeting at the presidential level, that will depend on the progress we’re able to make through the persistent work carried out by our aides and representatives,” Ushakov said. And more on US-Russia relations: “But this time, we emphasized that if we genuinely want to work together — and there are enormous opportunities — then it’s time to show some real commitment,” the Kremlin official said.

While the negotiations were happening or about to proceed, President Trump in Washington had admitted it’s not “an easy situation” to settle, but that “Our people are over in Russia right now to see if we can get it settled. Not an easy situation, let me tell you. What a mess.” He reiterated in a cabinet meeting: “It’s a war that never would have happened if I were President.”

As for the initially announced firm deadline of Thanksgiving Day for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to accept the US 28-point peace plan, President Trump appears to have backed down from that, given all of this back-and-forth is still proceeding.

I think we might take a minute to ask why the American government has sent a real estate developer and the president’s son in law to negotiate directly with Vladimir Putin, rather than – say – the secretary of state, or a professional diplomat, or indeed anyone with training. https://t.co/6GoRkeMNUR

— Shashank Joshi (@shashj) December 2, 2025

One interesting development is Axios reported that Witkoff was slated to meet with Zelensky and brief him on the talks with Putin. Zelensky has demanded this much, also given Kiev feels largely cut out of the US plan and negotiations. Trump also last week made clear he’s not ready to meet with either Zelensky or Putin until a peace deal is in the final stages.

The expected Witkoff meeting with Zelensky has been canceled, and the US delegation is en route back home to Washington instead, in perhaps another slap in the face to Zelensky which further sidelines him once again. According to the UK Times:

A meeting between President Zelensky and a US delegation planned for Wednesday has been cancelled after talks in Russia on the war in Ukraine concluded without a breakthrough.

Steve Witkoff, President Trump’s special envoy, and his son-in-law, Jared Kushner, spoke to President Putin and other Russian officials in Moscow for five hours on Tuesday but failed to make any headway on a peace deal.

The US negotiators were due to debrief Zelensky in Brussels after the talks. However, Witkoff and Kushner left Moscow on Tuesday night for Washington, the Kremlin said.

Meanwhile the Kremlin on Wednesday has followed up with further explanation of its stance. “We proceed from the fact that in this case it is better for these negotiations to be conducted in silence,” Putin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has been quoted in state media as saying. He added that Russia is “not a supporter of megaphone diplomacy.”

Some aspects of the US plan are likely welcomed by Moscow…

Peskov explained that “it would be wrong” to say Putin had turned down the American proposals after the talks in Moscow. He described the first direct exchange on the plan as being that “some things were accepted, some were marked as unacceptable,” and that this is part of a “normal negotiation process” and “a search for compromise.” 

Having just announced it’s taken military control of Pokrovsk, amid a string of steady advances in the east, Moscow knows it is firmly in the driver’s seat – yet the proxy war continues its dangerous path of escalation.

US equity futures are higher again, led by small cap stocks. As of 8:20am ET, S&P futures are up 0.2% (they dropped following a very ugly ADP print at 8:15am), the same as Nasdaq 100 futs, with Mag 7 stocks mostly higher premarket led by NVDA (+0.4%) and AMZN (+0.3%); MRVL is up +10% post-earnings given the robust long-term guidance. Europe’s Stoxx 600 is also higher led by tech and energy sectors.  Bond yields are lower, the move accelerating after the ADP print; the USD is also lower. Commodities are mixed: Oil higher, while copper hit a fresh record high above $11,350/ton following the largest surge in orders since 2013. Bitcoin extended a tentative rebound on Wednesday, rising as high as $94,000, though sentiment remains fragile. On the news front, increment updates were relatively muted overnight except for MRVL’s positive earnings that trigger the rebound in global tech. The US economic calendar includes November ADP employment change (8:15am), September import/export price index (8:30am), September industrial production (9:15am), November final S&P Global US services PMI (9:45am) and November ISM services (10am).

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mostly higher (Nvidia +0.8%, Amazon +0.4%, Alphabet +0.3%, Tesla +0.1%, Microsoft -0.1%, Apple +0.04%, Meta +0.06%)

• Acadia Health (ACHC) slumps 29% after the psychiatric-hospital chain cut its adjusted earnings per share guidance for the full year.
• American Eagle (AEO) surges 12% after the apparel retailer raised its comparable sales guidance for the full year and reported net revenue for the third quarter that topped the average analyst estimate.
• Astera Labs (ALAB) rises 7% as analysts note that Amazon’s AWS Trainium artificial intelligence chip is a positive for the semiconductor manufacturing company. Amazon’s cloud unit raced to get the latest version of its AI chip Trainium3 to market and unveiled Trainium4.
• GitLab (GTLB) falls 8% after the software company’s results and forecast were seen as underwhelming. Bloomberg Intelligence wrote that the report reinforces concerns about AI.
• Marvell Technology (MRVL) rises 9% after the chipmaker’s CEO assuaged investor concerns with positive trends at its custom chip-design unit. The company also announced plans to acquire startup Celestial AI for about $3.25 billion.
• Microchip (MCHP) is up 2% after the semiconductor device company forecast adjusted earnings per share for the third quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.
• Oracle (ORCL) gains 1.6% as Wells Fargo starts coverage of the tech giant with a recommendation of overweight, describing the firm as an “emerging leader in the AI super-cycle.”
• Okta (OKTA) is down 4% after the software company’s results and forecast were seen as underwhelming.
• Pharvaris (PHVS) jumps 18% after the drug developer said a late-stage trial of its investigative therapy for hereditary angioedema (HAE) — a rare genetic condition that causes severe swelling — met its main goal
• Pure Storage (PSTG) declines 14% after the computer hardware and storage company reported higher operational expenditure in the third quarter.

Stocks rose for a second day, but eased back after ADP reported that US companies shed payrolls in November by the most since early 2023, adding to concerns about a more pronounced weakening in the labor market. Private-sector payrolls decreased by 32,000, according to ADP Research data released Wednesday. Payrolls have now fallen four times in the last six months. The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for a 10,000 gain.

The data may add some support for the December rate-cut case, although markets are already treating a cut as a sure thing. Trump said he plans to announce his selection to lead the Fed in early 2026 and teased chief economic adviser Kevin Hassett as his possible choice. Traders are piling into bets that a new chair will support Trump’s calls for lower rates.

As Fed policymakers gather next week, the debate among officials will largely center on the job market and whether rates should be reduced for a third straight time. While the latest government report showed a larger-than-expected rise in payrolls, the gain was concentrated in just a few industries. The unemployment rate ticked up to an almost four-year high, and there’s been a steady drumbeat of layoff news from companies.

“Right now, the data argues for additional Fed funds rate cuts. US labor demand is weak, consumer spending is showing early signs of cracking, and upside risks to inflation are fading,” said Elias Haddad at Brown Brothers Harriman.

Also due today are ISM services data for November, as well as delayed import price index and industrial production numbers for September.

Elsewhere, traders continue to weigh conflicting signals in the AI story. The AI story and how much further it can power the market, continues to be top of mind. Marvell shares are soaring after its prediction for data center revenue to grow 25%, with further fuel to bulls coming from AI-power darling Vistra, which was raised to investment grade by S&P.

At the same time, Oracle credit default swaps closed at the highest level since the financial crisis. And Sam Altman seems to be worried about competition — he was said to declare a ‘code red’ to speed up improvements to OpenAI’s ChatGPT. 

The SEC is said to have issued a flurry of warning letters to nine providers of highly-leveraged ETF plans, effectively blocking the introduction of such products. CME is working to improve client communications after Friday’s outage that disrupted multiple financial markets. Crypto giant Binance appointed co-founder Yi He as co-CEO. 

European stocks are broadly firmer with the Stoxx 600 index up 0.2%. The FTSE 100 is lagging, trading lower by 0.2% alongside a firmer pound and losses in index-heavyweight HSBC. Here are some of the biggest movers on Wednesday:

• Stellantis gains as much as 8.4% after UBS analyst Patrick Hummel raised his recommendation on the carmaker to buy from neutral and following a report that the White House will announce new fuel efficiency standards for automobiles.
• European semiconductor stocks with data‑center and 5G exposure advance after US peer Marvell Technology reassured investors that its custom chip-design unit is winning repeat orders, signaling continued growth as the company benefits from runaway spending on AI computing.
• European defense stocks rise on Wednesday morning. The Kremlin said President Vladimir Putin held “very useful” talks with US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, though the sides failed to reach agreement on a plan to end Russia’s war in Ukraine.
• Inditex rises as much as 8.9% after releasing third-quarter results that beat consensus estimates.
• Cosmo Pharmaceuticals shares soar as much as 24% after the company said two late-stage studies of its experimental treatment for male hair loss reached statistically significant endpoints.
• Tomra shares advance as much as 6.3% as Pareto Securities flagged that the Norwegian recycling equipment company’s upcoming fourth-quarter earnings due on Feb. 13 “could be the inflection point,” with current consensus overlooking margin effects from recent changes.
• Bloomsbury Publishing shares rise as much as 5.2% after the firm struck a new strategic collaboration with Google on AI-powered learning and core publishing infrastructure. Berenberg said this is another example of the benefits AI is having on the publisher.
• Hugo Boss slumps as much as 11% after the luxury branded-clothes retailer announced its strategy plan through 2028.
• Eutelsat shares slump as much as 9.6% after Softbank, the satellite firm’s fifth biggest shareholder, offered rights at a discount as it opts not to take up more shares in the French company.
• Spire Healthcare shares drop as much as 15% after the private UK hospital operator gave a forecast for 2026 adjusted Ebitda that RBC called a “substantial” profit warning.
• Trainline falls as much as 12% as the online train ticketing platform receives its only sell-equivalent rating following a JPMorgan downgrade to underweight from neutral.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks traded in a narrow range as investors awaited key data that will provide clues on the global economic outlook. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index edged down 0.1%, weighed by Alibaba and Tencent. TSMC and some Japanese tech firms were among the biggest boosts for the gauge. Stocks advanced in South Korea and Taiwan, while benchmarks in Hong Kong and India declined. The MSCI Asia gauge has been trading sideways over the past week, though it is still on track to cap its best year since 2017. The outlook for the artificial intelligence trade that has contributed much to the region’s gains in 2025 got a fresh tailwind from Marvell’s upbeat projections. Tech investors also digested details of Amazon.com’s new chip and continued to be enthusiastic over Apple’s AI advances.

In FX, the pound sits near the top of the pile with an upward revision to final UK PMIs giving the currency an additional boost. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is down 0.3%.

In rates, 10Y Treasuries are a touch firmer extending Tuesday’s advance and outperforming European bond markets with no real bias on the US curve. Yields are richer by 2bp-3bp, keeping curve spreads within a basis point of Tuesday’s closing levels. 10-year is near 4.06%, about 2bp richer on the day and outperforming bunds by 1.5bp. Gilts are marginally outperforming US and German peers.  IG dollar bond issuance slate empty so far and expected to slow following a strong start to the week. Eight firms sold a combined $5.65 billion Tuesday — the second-straight session with that many borrowers — taking the weekly haul past dealers’ forecasts of around $20 billion. Focal points of US session include November ADP employment and services PMI gauges, along with anticipation of US government labor-market data releases that were held up by the shutdown and US President Trump’s announcement of Fed Chair Powell’s successor. In commodities,

In commodities, copper has hit a fresh record high above $11,350/ton following the largest surge in orders since 2013. Spot gold trades flat around $4,200/oz. WTI crude oil futures are up 1.4% as traders weigh continued talks between the US and Russia that have so far failed to end the war in Ukraine. Bitcoin extended a tentative rebound on Wednesday, rising as high as $94,000. 

Today’s US economic calendar includes November ADP employment change (8:15am), September import/export price index (8:30am), September industrial production (9:15am), November final S&P Global US services PMI (9:45am) and November ISM services (10am).

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini +0.2%
• Nasdaq 100 mini +0.1%
• Russell 2000 mini +0.3%
• Stoxx Europe 600 +0.3%
• DAX +0.3%
• CAC 40 +0.3%
• 10-year Treasury yield -1 basis point at 4.08%
• VIX -0.1 points at 16.51
• Bloomberg Dollar Index -0.3% at 1214.12
• euro +0.3% at $1.1657
• WTI crude +1.5% at $59.54/barrel

Top Overnight News

• Trump posted that “Any and all Documents, Proclamations, Executive Orders, Memorandums, or Contracts, signed by Order of the now infamous and unauthorized “AUTOPEN,” within the Administration of Joseph R. Biden Jr., are hereby null, void, and of no further force or effect. Anyone receiving “Pardons,” “Commutations,” or any other Legal Document so signed, please be advised that said Document has been fully and completely terminated.”
• Marathon Russia-U.S. Meeting Yields No Ukraine Peace Deal: WSJ
• Kremlin says Putin accepted some US proposals on Ukraine and is ready to continue talking: RTRS
• Republican Wins Closely Watched House Special Election in Tennessee: WSJ
• US paused all immigration applications filed by immigrants from 19 countries it restricted from travel to the US earlier this year: NYT.
• Trump’s Aides Cancel Fed Chair Interviews as President Homes In on Pick: WSJ
• Trump Says He Doesn’t Want Somali Immigrants in U.S. as ICE Plans Operation: WSJ
• US judge blocked the Trump admin from enforcing a law depriving Planned Parenthood of Medicaid funding in 22 states.
• Airbus Sees Setbacks and Boeing Rebounds as Script Quickly Flips: BBG
• The AI frenzy is driving a new global supply chain crisis: RTRS
• A Newly Confident China Is Jockeying for More Global Clout as Trump Pulls Back: WSJ
• HSBC Names Chairman After Yearlong Search: WSJ
• Harvard’s Big Wager on Bitcoin Came Right Before the Bust: WSJ
• Nvidia’s Fat Margins Are Google and AMD’s Opportunity: WSJ
• BofA Total Card Spending (w/e Nov 29th) +0.2% (prev. +2.4% avg. in October); highlights that the slowdown was broad based and higher core goods inflation meant real spending was ever weaker.

Trade/Tariffs

• US President Trump said they will give refunds out of the tariffs and believes they won’t have income tax to pay in the near future.
• US President Trump thanked Chinese President Xi for soybean purchases. It was separately reported that at least six shipments of US soybeans for China are to load at Gulf Coast terminals through mid-December, while the first US sorghum cargo to China since March is also loading at the Gulf Coast terminal, and a second cargo is due next week.
• US President Trump posted that he had a very productive call with Brazilian President Lula and “Among the things discussed were Trade, how our Countries could work together to stop Organized Crime, Sanctions imposed on various Brazilian dignitaries, Tariffs, and various other items.” Trump added he believes “it set the stage for very good dialogue and agreement long into the future… Much good will come out of this newly formed partnership!”
• EU is said to be pushing for 70% of critical goods to be made in Europe, according to FT.
• Annual negotiations between Chinese copper smelters and Antofagasta (ANTO LN) have not progressed, as Chinese smelters remain determined to avoid negative fees, via Bloomberg citing sources

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mixed, with the region only partially sustaining the positive momentum from Wall St, where tech and crypto rebounded. ASX 200 traded marginally higher but with gains limited as participants also reflected on disappointing Australian GDP data. Nikkei 225 rallied to back above the 50k level as it benefitted from tech-related momentum. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp declined after the Chinese tech giants failed to join in the spoils seen in global peers and after the PBoC continued to drain liquidity through its daily open market operations, while participants also digested the latest Chinese RatingDog Services and Composite PMI data, which continued to show an expansion in activity, albeit at a slower-than-previous pace.

Top Asian News

• China was reported to unveil a plan to boost tourism and aviation sectors and will strengthen inbound tourism air routes, while it will continue to ease entry and travel for foreign tourists and will boost tourism through coordinated consumption policies.
• DigiTimes reports that memory spot prices surged in November, despite Samsung Electronics’ (005930 KS) RDIMM release marginally easing shortages, as suppliers hiked contract prices significantly. “Some industry insiders reveal that after Samsung halted pricing quotes in October, it resumed DRAM chip quotations mid-November with average contract price increases of 30-40%.” “Sources indicate US-based NAND giants raised prices repeatedly, with November quotes 100-150% above October.” “Expectations point to even steeper hikes in the first quarter of 2026.”
• “Samsung Electronics’ (005930 KS) final HBM4 samples are scheduled to undergo 2.5D packaging and finished product testing starting this month,” via zdnet citing sources
• China is reportedly likely to maintain the annual growth target of around 5% in 2026, via Reuters citing sources; some advisors cited proposed a 4.5-5.0% target
• India’s Chief Economic Adviser says he’s not losing sleep over the INR weakening

European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.4%) opened with modest gains, following on from a positive session on Wall St. in Tuesday’s session. Price action this morning has been mixed, with a few indices trading rangebound whilst others have gradually edged higher. European sectors are split down the middle. Retail leads the pile (buoyed by Inditex +8.50% post-earnings), whilst Energy and Tech complete the top three. Sentiment for the latter has been boosted after positive results from Marvell, which gains in pre-market trade. To the downside resides Insurance, and Optimised Personal Care.

Top European News

• French Parliamentary debate on the increases to the General Social Contribution on capital income, part of the Social Security Financing Bill (PLFSS), will be discussed later this week after the revenue component, Politico reports.
• ECB’s Lane says they have a clear orientation for monetary policy conduct. On inflation “…a sufficiently large and persistent deviation from the target requires a monetary policy response, regardless of its origin”. “In summary, this discussion has emphasised that the appropriate monetary policy response to an inflation deviation from the target is context specific and requires a careful analysis of a broad set of considerations. Of course, the capacity to consider “looking through” some types of inflation deviations depends on a strong institutional commitment to delivering the symmetric inflation target over the medium term, underpinning firmly-anchored medium-term inflation expectations”.

FX

• DXY is softer today and trades towards the lower end of a 98.99 to 99.30 range. G10s are mostly stronger vs the Dollar, albeit to varying degrees. For the USD specifically, all focus has been on Fed developments, and in particular, President Trump hinting that White House NEC Director Hassett as the “potential” next Fed Chair. Moreover, it was reported in the WSJ that Trump aides have cancelled a number of Fed Chair interviews, after the POTUS said he had made up his mind. JD Vance was reportedly scheduled to meet with more candidates today, though those were cancelled, with the WSJ sources suggesting that it was currently unclear if they would be rescheduled. Odds of a Hassett chair nomination currently reside around 86% vs 75% earlier this week, on Kalshi. Ahead focus turns to US ADP National Employment and then ISM Services.
• EUR firmer and trades at the upper end of a 1.1622 to 1.1663 range. Benefiting from the weaker Dollar and softer energy prices. The single currency was little moved on EZ Final PMI metrics, which were revised slightly higher; the internal report said that the ECB will likely continue to communicate holding steady on rates. Most recently the EUR has notched fresh peaks, but without a clear catalyst; potentially a factor of a slight bounce in EUR/GBP, which gave the EUR/USD a bid.
• Elsewhere, GBP was initially gaining modestly vs the USD, before catching a recent bid, taking Cable to a fresh 1.3279 peak where it currently resides, lifting GBP/JPY closer to the key 207.20 mark and weighing on EUR/GBP. No catalyst for that upside. Thereafter, the GBP took another leg higher on the upwardly revised PMI metrics.
• Uneventful trade for USD/JPY this morning, and ultimately moving at the whim of the Dollar. Currently trading at the lower end of a relatively narrow 155.52 to 155.90 range, awaiting key US data later.
• Earlier, CHF was pressured after a cooler-than-expected inflation report which saw Y/Y printed below expected at 0.0% whilst the M/M printed in-line. In an immediate reaction, EUR/CHF lifted from 0.9332 to 0.9339; the upside was ultimately fairly muted given there were a number of analysts also expecting a 0.0% Y/Y print (which would be in-line). Moreover, traders will look towards the SNB meeting next week; policymakers have significantly raised the bar for a sub-0% policy rate, and while today’s outturn factors on the dovish side, it is unlikely to warrant a return to NIRP, focus instead on inflation forecast adjustments and FX language. Though, a move back to NIRP cannot be ruled out.

Fixed Income

• For the most part, a session of modest gains for fixed benchmarks, ranges limited, awaiting newsflow later in the session. More recently, benchmarks have reverted back to lows and are threatening a move into the red, potentially amid yield upside on continued Crude gains.
• USTs got to a 113-01+ peak, firmer by just under five ticks at best. Yields lower across the curve at first, but the long end moving higher as the morning continues and the steepening bias extends. The main driver being the WSJ reporting that the final Fed Chair interviews have been cancelled and Trump announcing that he will make an announcement early-2026, steepening began as Trump referred to Hassett as the “potential” next Fed Chair.
• Bunds off best in a 128.25-41 band. The benchmark has been firmer for the entire morning, saw some fleeting pressure on upwardly-revised Final PMIs, but for the most part has been choppy and directionless in the mentioned band, before succumbing to what appears to be energy-induced pressure in recent trade.
• A similar story for Gilts. No move to the region’s own PMIs, revised higher. Internal commentary was downbeat, though we wait to see how this shakes out in the post-Budget metrics. Commentary also pointed to wage pressure, a point that factors against BoE easing in December, though a cut appears increasingly likely barring a shock in the November CPI print due just before the December announcement. Off highs but firmer by around 10 ticks in a 91.22-50 band.
• UK sells GBP 4.75bln 4.00% 2029 Gilt: b/c 3.10x (prev. 3.06x), avg. yield 3.855% (prev. 3.845%), tail 0.4bps (prev. 0.4bps)

Commodities

• WTI and Brent dipped to a low of USD 58.38/bbl and USD 62.19/bbl, respectively, in the early hours of the APAC session. They have gradually trended higher throughout the European session thus far, as traders react to the lack of significant progress from the Putin-Witkoff meeting in Moscow. Benchmarks have steadily bid c. USD 1.00/bbl from its session lows and are currently trading back above USD 59/bbl and USD 63/bbl. Brent Feb’26 currently trading at the upper end of a USD 62.18-63.37/bbl range.
• Dutch TTF has failed to bid higher following the reports that the EU have reached a deal on phasing out Russian gas imports by 2027. The deal is caveated with a possible extension to the ban implementation in case of difficulty filling gas storage. After opening the session at EUR 28.15/MWh, Dutch TTF has fallen lower and is currently trading near session lows at EUR 27.74/MWh.
• Spot XAU has traded on both sides of the unchanged mark, as the yellow metal struggled to find direction at the start of the European session. XAU followed on from the bid higher in Tuesday’s US session and peaked at USD 4229/oz in the early hours of APAC trade. As the European session got underway, the yellow metal dipped back below USD 4200/oz as the market continues to digest the possibility of Kevin Hassett as the new Fed Chair.
• 3M LME Copper has started the European session on the frontfoot and is currently trading at USD 11.41k/t, extending to fresh ATHs. This comes as demand for the red metal continues to grow, shown by the spike in requests to withdraw inventories from LME warehouses. Supply disruptions and front-running of possible import tariffs into the US have been the theme in 2025 that has driven Copper to record highs.
• Ukraine has hit Russia’s Druzhba oil pipeline in the Tambov region, according to Reuters sources.

Geopolitics: Middle East

• Israel’s COGAT says the Rafah crossing will open in the coming days for Palestinians to exit from Gaza to Egypt.
• Russia’s Kremlin says it would be wrong to say that President Putin rejected the US’ peace plan, adds that Russia highly values US President Trump’s political will and are trying to find a resolution.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

• Russian President Putin’s envoy Dmitriev described talks with the US in Moscow as productive after Russian President Putin’s meeting with US Special Envoy Witkoff and Jared Kushner lasted for five hours.
• Russian Kremlin aide Ushakov said the conversation between Russian President Putin and US Special Envoy Witkoff was useful, constructive and meaningful and that they discussed several options for Ukraine’s settlement plan, although he stated that they are no closer to resolving the crisis in Ukraine, and there is much work to be done. Ushakov said Putin asked to convey a number of important political signals to Trump and they agreed with their American colleagues not to disclose the substance of the negotiations that took place with the discussion confidential. Furthermore, he said American representatives will return to the US, present their findings to President Trump and contact the Russian side, while they also discussed prospects for economic cooperation between Russia and the US.
• European Commission is to make a legal proposal this week to use Russia’s frozen assets for a Ukraine loan, according to sources cited by Reuters.
• German Foreign Minister Wadephul says they are to procure an additional USD 200mln worth of military equipment for Ukraine across two packages
• EU Ambassadors meeting has been moved forward to 13:30GMT (prev. 17:45GMT), regarding the use of frozen Russian assets for a Ukraine reparation loan, via Politico. Diplomats cited say that Commission President von der Leyen intends to use Article 122, “solidarity in economic emergencies”; elaborating that this means the clause could be deployed to extend the sanctions renewal period from six months to three years, potentially bypassing the unanimity requirement.
• Belgium Foreign Minister says, re. the use of frozen Russian assets, “the texts the Commission will table today do not address our concerns in a satisfactory manner. It is not acceptable to use the money and leave us alone facing the risks”.

Geopolitics: Other

• US President Trump signed into law a measure forcing the State Department to review guidelines for the country’s engagement with Taiwan, according to the White House.
• South Korean President Lee said communication is completely cut off between South Korea and North Korea, while he added that North Korea keeps refusing our efforts to talk. Lee also commented that South Korea can look into the issue of joint exercises with the US to help create grounds for dialogue between the US and North Korea, as well as stated that they will not veer off the road towards denuclearisation of the Korean peninsula.

US Event Calendar

• 7:00 am: Nov 28 MBA Mortgage Applications, prior 0.2%
• 8:15 am: Nov ADP Employment Change, est. 10k, prior 42k
• 8:30 am: Sep Import Price Index MoM, est. 0.1%, prior 0.3%
• 8:30 am: Sep Import Price Index YoY, est. 0.45%, prior 0%
• 9:15 am: Sep Industrial Production MoM, est. 0.05%, prior 0.1%, revised -0.08%
• 9:15 am: Sep Capacity Utilization, est. 77.2%, prior 77.4%, revised 75.84%
• 9:45 am: Nov F S&P Global U.S. Services PMI, est. 55, prior 55
• 9:45 am: Nov F S&P Global U.S. Composite PMI, prior 54.8
• 10:00 am: Nov ISM Services Index, est. 52, prior 52.4

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Markets showed signs of stabilising yesterday, with the S&P 500 (+0.25%) posting a modest increase after its selloff at the start of the week. US futures are up around the same amount again this morning as we type. Europe’s STOXX 600 (+0.07%) also edged higher, whilst the 2yr Treasury yield (-2.1bps) inched lower as expectations that Kevin Hassett would be nominated for the Fed Chair role continued to solidify. To be honest though, signs of caution still abound, particularly given the backlog of US data. So there is some element of consolidation ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting with the equity market already having run up on the back of pricing moving from a 24.5% probability of a cut just under two weeks ago, to now well over 90%. One asset class that did see ongoing volatility was crypto, with Bitcoin (+5.97%) posting its best day since May as it recovered from Monday’s slump. It’s up another couple of percent this morning.  

However, the broader lack of volatility could soon change, as we’ve got a few private US surveys that are attracting more attention than usual. That includes the ADP’s report of private payrolls today, which markets have been more reactive to since the shutdown began, not least because we won’t get the usual jobs report this Friday. Our US economists expect that to come in at +50k in November, which would imply a further 11bps deterioration in the year-on-year growth rate of private employment to 0.62%. So in their view, that would reinforce most Fed officials’ view that the labour market is still gradually cooling. Then shortly after that, we’ll get the ISM services print, where the prices paid component will be in focus given it’s been strongly correlated to US inflation with a lag. That prices paid component hit a 3-year high of 70.0 last month, so it’ll be in focus given we don’t have the official inflation data for October or November yet, and markets are proving much more sensitive to anything else that can provide a steer on what’s happening.  

Ahead of those releases, there was little for markets to react to yesterday. So the S&P 500 (+0.25%) only made a modest gain, with the Magnificent 7 (+0.52%) posting a slight outperformance. To be fair, there were some big individual movers, and Boeing (+10.15%) was the top-performer in the S&P after their CFO said they expected to generate positive free cash flow in the low-single digits next year. But more broadly, there was little to provide much positive traction, with most of the S&P constituents lower on the day and defensive sectors struggling in particular, including energy (-1.28%) and utilities (-0.72%).  

In the meantime, we did hear some news on the search for a new Fed Chair. The initial headline was the lack of news, as President Trump said they‘d be announcing the new Chair “probably early next year”, a bit later than many had anticipated as Treasury Secretary Bessent previously said that there was “a very good chance” we’d get an announcement by Christmas. However, Trump later referred to NEC Director Kevin Hassett as a “potential” Fed Chair and then last night the Wall Street Journal reported that the Trump administration had cancelled interviews with a group of finalists for the role that were set to start this week. So the Polymarket probability of Hassett getting the job moved higher after an initial drop, reaching 87%. Yesterday I published an AI generated CoTD that showed that only 2 out of 15 Fed Chairs have stayed on as Governor after their term as Chair ended. I highlighted that the most recent one to do so, Marriner Eccles, stayed on in 1948 for over 3 years as he was worried about Fed independence in a period the Fed were pegging interest rates to finance WWII debts. Once the Fed Treasury accord was signed, he resigned in the knowledge he had completed his mission. Is there a parallel this time around? If someone is appointed Chair that is perceived to threaten Fed independence could Powell stay on? See the CoTD here for more. Also see DB’s Peter Hooper’s take on the same topic here for additional insight.  

Back to yesterday, as expectations for Fed rate cuts inched higher, 2yr US Treasury yields were down -2.1bps to 3.51%, whilst the 10yr yield was unchanged at 4.09%. They are both another basis point lower this morning.  
Over in Europe, bonds put in a slightly stronger performance, despite the Euro Area flash CPI print for November coming in above expectations. It showed headline inflation at +2.2% in November (vs. +2.1% expected), whilst core inflation was steady at +2.4% as expected. However, there was more dovish news on the labour market, as the Euro Area unemployment rate came in at 6.4% in October (vs. 6.3% expected). So by the close, yields on 10yr bunds (-0.1bps) just about managed to inch lower, whilst yields on 10yr OATs (+0.6bps) and BTPs (-0.4bps) also saw little movement.  

That underperformance for French OATs comes as the National Assembly have now begun debating the social security bill, with the leader of “Horizons” stating that his members couldn’t approve the Social Security budget. They’re officially in the government coalition, so their lack of approval makes a difference in terms of the final outcome. As a reminder, a vote in the National Assembly is scheduled for December 9, but the previous issue remains in that the Assembly is fragmented between different political groups where no one has a majority. So investors are still keeping a close eye, with the Franco-German 10yr spread (+0.7bps) moving back up to 74bps. France’s CAC 40 (-0.28%) also lost ground yesterday, in contrast to Germany’s DAX (+0.51%) and the Europe-wide STOXX 600 (+0.07%). For more details, our economist has more on the budget process and hurdles ahead in his report on the social security bill.

In geopolitical news, yesterday saw Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff meet Russia’s President Putin in Moscow to discuss US proposals to end the war in Ukraine. Putin’s chief foreign policy advisor Ushakov said the talks were “constructive and very informative” but that “a compromise hasn’t been reached yet” on territorial questions and that joint talks would continue. Earlier, NBC News reported that there were three points on which the Kremlin was unwilling to compromise, specifically control of all of the Donbass region, a limit on Ukraine’s armed forces and recognition of Russian-controlled territories by the US and Europe.

In Asia the Nikkei (+1.63%) is leading regional gains, driven by technology and real estate stocks, while the KOSPI (+1.18%) is also seeing a notable increase. The S&P/ASX 200 (+0.18%) is registering slight gains after the Australian economy expanded less than anticipated in the September quarter (details below), but with much stronger details below the surface which has increased expectations of rate hikes. Elsewhere the Shanghai Composite (-0.23%) is lower but with the Hang Seng (-1.10%) trading notably lower.  

Turning back to Australia, GDP increased by +0.4% quarter-on-quarter for the three months ending September 30, falling short of the +0.7% growth expectations and slowing from the revised +0.7% rise observed in the previous quarter, as weak net trade and a significant reduction in inventories counterbalanced robust domestic demand. On a year-on-year basis, GDP grew by +2.1% in Q3, compared to expectations of 2.2% and growth of 2.0% in the preceding quarter. Markets have seen it as a hawkish release due to the big inventory miss and one of the strongest final demand prints in the last 10-15 years.

Indeed, yields on the policy-sensitive 2-year government bonds have risen by +5.7bps, settling at 3.91%, while 10-year yields have increased by +3.1bps, trading at 4.64% as we prepare to publish. Elsewhere, 10 and 30yr JGBs are up by +2.8bps and 4.3bps respectively ahead of a 30yr auction tomorrow.  

Separately, in China, a private survey indicated that growth in the services sector has slowed to a five-month low in November, with the services PMI declining to 52.1 from 52.6. This slowdown is attributed to weaker new orders and ongoing job contractions, despite a modest improvement in export activity.

To the day ahead now, and US data release include the ISM services index for November, the ADP’s report of private payrolls for November, and industrial production or September. Otherwise, we’ll get the final services and composite PMIs for November from the US and Europe. Finally, from central banks, we’ll hear from ECB President Lagarde, the ECB’s Lane, and the BoE’s Mann

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

Nearly one in three children in Glasgow’s primary schools do not speak English as their first language, according to new council data, highlighting a dramatic shift driven by record migration levels that are overwhelming local resources and raising urgent questions about integration and public services.

The figures, revealed in a Telegraph report, show 31% of pupils in the city’s primaries requiring English as an additional language support, up from 25% five years ago, amid Scotland’s net migration hitting 50,000 annually.

As classrooms grapple with translation demands and parents voice fears over cultural silos, the crisis underscores a broader UK strain where rapid demographic changes are testing the limits of cohesion without adequate planning.

‘This is a symptom of an immigration system that is way too overrun…’

Political Commentator @DobbsandPolicy reacts to news that almost 30% of students in Glasgow do not speak English as their first language. pic.twitter.com/ttfceYjm6k

— GB News (@GBNEWS) December 2, 2025

Glasgow City Council’s latest census data indicates 31% of primary school pupils—over 7,000 children—now need English language support, a 24% jump since 2020, per the Telegraph.

The most common languages are Arabic, Polish, Urdu, and Punjabi, reflecting waves of refugees from Syria, Ukraine, and Afghanistan alongside EU migration.

Council education chief Councillor Christina Cannon admitted, “We have seen an explosion in the number of children who need English as an additional language support.”

? Almost one in three pupils in Glasgow does not speak English as their main language, analysis shows

Take a look at our data-led study below ?https://t.co/6SWq10xVgh

— The Telegraph (@Telegraph) December 1, 2025

She added, “This is putting huge pressure on our schools and teachers, who are doing an incredible job but are stretched thin.”

The report notes over 100 schools now have dedicated EAL coordinators, but funding lags behind demand, with one headteacher quoted anonymously, “We’re using Google Translate for parent meetings—it’s not sustainable, and kids are falling behind in core subjects.”

Glasgow’s transformation stems from Scotland’s “unprecedented” migration surge, with net inflows topping 50,000 yearly since 2022, driven by asylum seekers, refugees, and post-Brexit EU arrivals, per National Records of Scotland.

The city, Scotland’s largest, absorbed 10,000 asylum seekers in 2024 alone under SNP policies, overwhelming housing and education. As the Telegraph details, this has led to “language silos” in neighborhoods like Pollokshields, where Arabic dominates, and parents report “parallel societies” forming.

Over time would take generations not 2 years

— darran (@gynoshwad) December 2, 2025

SNP education secretary Jenny Gilruth stated “Migration is a good thing for Scotland’s economy, but we need better funding for integration programs.” Critics like Tory MSP Murdo Fraser counter, “The SNP’s open-door policy is creating ghettos—schools can’t cope without massive investment.”

Residents in Glasgow’s ‘diverse’ east end express growing concern over cultural divides. One mother, speaking to the Telegraph, said, “My son’s class has 15 different languages—it’s wonderful in theory, but he’s struggling because the teacher spends half the day translating.”

A local teacher added, “We’re seeing cliques based on language, not ability—it’s dividing kids before they start.”

When 3 in 10 pupils can’t speak English as a first language, that’s not “diversity” — it’s the result of an immigration system totally out of control.
Schools can’t teach properly, standards drop, and integration becomes impossible.
This isn’t sustainable, and everyone knows it.

— Ben Crichton (@Bencrichton_3) December 2, 2025

Fraser further warns that “Without urgent action, we’ll see more ‘parallel societies’ like in parts of London, where integration fails and tensions rise.”

The report ties this to national trends, with 20% of England’s pupils needing EAL support, but Glasgow’s 31% rate is among the highest, straining a system already short 1,000 teachers.

The data isn’t just numbers—it’s a wake-up call for a city transformed by migration without the infrastructure to match. As Cannon urges, “We need ring-fenced funding now, or our schools will break.” With SNP ministers promising reviews but no immediate cash, Glasgow’s classrooms teeter on the brink, a microcosm of a much wider migration crisis.

If they don’t have English as a first or main language, what are they learning and IMPORTANTLY, are allowances made for their lack of English, thus downgrading their qualifications?

— Matthew Harper No DMs – We’re in big trouble (@MattHarperUK) December 2, 2025

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In the wake of the recent US sanctions on Russia’s two biggest energy giants, Serbia is in desperate need of a sanctions-waiver if the country hopes to keep the lights on.

Serbia’s government is this week warning it could slide into a severe energy and economic crisis unless Washington grants a 90-day exemption from US sanctions. Officials are essentially begging for enough time to enable the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) to take temporary control of the country’s only refinery, NIS, as it finalizes its purchase of Russia’s majority share.

The US sanctions had cut NIS, which is part of Russia’s Gazprom Neft, off from US dollar transactions and blocked crude shipments that normally arrive through Croatia. This has left the 4.8-million-ton refinery operating at a fraction of its capacity. Crucially, NIS produces around 80% of Serbia’s refined petroleum products, filling fuel needs across various vital sectors, including aviation and diesel.

Belgrade officials are seeking a three-month grace period for the plant to resume under the Gulf-based non-Russian operator, without which Serbia risks a chain reaction of fuel shortages and industrial disruptions. This could be politically destabilizing, leaders have warned.

Washington has already granted similar, and some might argue more extensive, waivers to nearby EU members Hungary, Romania, and Bulgaria.

President Aleksandar Vučić’s government has also long been seen as one of the Trump White House’s closest partners in the Balkans. As of Tuesday he met with energy ministry officials, after which he said “We do not have good news, we did not receive a positive decision from the United States regarding NIS.” 

He announced that the waiver request has been denied, at least for now. “I am not only disappointed, but also surprised, because I don’t see what they gained from it,” the Serbian president said.

According to more via Interfax:

Serbia has made a decision to completely suspend operations at the refinery in Pancevo, and NIS will subsequently decide when it will be stopped, Vucic said.

NIS said on Tuesday evening that the Pancevo Oil Refinery had started suspending the operation of its production units due to the lack of crude oil for processing purposes as a result of the U.S. sanctions. “The activities in the Pancevo Oil Refinery during the operation suspension process are organized so as to have the refinery’s units ready to restart once the relevant conditions are met, i.e. as soon as the information on crude oil availability is received. During suspension of the refinery’s operations, the employees will be engaged to perform the tasks they carry out during scheduled shutdowns. NIS is continuing to supply the domestic market with petroleum products without interruption, owing to the stocks secured earlier,” NIS said in a press release.

The statement added, “NIS sincerely hopes that regular operations will be reestablished in the shortest time possible in the Pancevo Oil Refinery. The company remains staunchly committed to the efforts to be removed as soon as possible from the U.S. Ministry of Finance’s SDN list or to obtain a new special license which will ensure its unhindered operation, in which course of action it is strongly supported by the Republic of Serbia’s authorities.”

Belgrade is likely growing frustrated and running out of patience, also given Vučić has already aligned himself with Washington on policy toward Ukraine, despite Slavic Serbia being historically seen as an ally of Moscow.

Serbia has even supplied significant quantities of arms to Ukraine forces since the start of the war. This is why the Kremlin previously charged that Serbia had “forgotten who their real friends and enemies are.”

Authored by Lawrence Wilson via The Epoch Times,

The UK’s National Health Service will pay 25 percent more for new, patented U.S. medicines under the terms of a new trade agreement between the two nations.

The deal is the latest in a series of agreements in which the United States has leveraged tariffs to secure concessions on prescription drug prices. This is the first deal reached with a nation rather than with pharmaceutical manufacturers.

In return for this concession, the United States will forego tariffs on UK-made pharmaceuticals, pharmaceutical ingredients, and medical technology, as well as refrain from further pharmaceutical price negotiations during U.S. President Donald Trump’s term.

The commitments arose from the U.S.–UK Economic Prosperity Deal, signed in June, in which British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Trump agreed to address the imbalance of pharmaceutical trade between the two nations.

The UK also agreed to not undercut the new, higher prices by demanding concessions from manufacturers under a previous discount agreement with the pharmaceutical industry.

U.S. Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick said the agreement would strengthen the U.S. supply chain and cement America’s place as a leader in life sciences innovation.

“This deal doesn’t just deepen our economic partnership with the United Kingdom—it ensures that the breakthroughs of tomorrow will be built, tested, and produced on American soil,” Lutnick said in a Dec. 1 statement announcing the terms of the agreement.

U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. said the agreement will bring “long-overdue balance” to U.S.–UK pharmaceutical trade and strengthen global innovation.

UK Officials Hail Deal

The UK government said in a Dec. 1 statement that the agreement would benefit tens of thousands of patients and expand access to vital drugs.

Liz Kendall, UK secretary of state for science, innovation, and technology, said the agreement “will ensure UK patients get the cutting-edge medicines they need sooner, and … world-leading UK firms keep developing the treatments that can change lives.”

Health Minister Zubir Ahmed said: “This represents new hope and the possibility of treatments that could transform and even save lives.

“This package of changes will bring the best of pharma to the UK for the benefit of our patients, our [National Health Service] and our economy.”

The 25 percent price increase is accompanied by an equivalent rise in the cost-benefit calculation that the UK’s National Institute for Health and Care Excellence uses to decide whether to provide a particular drug to a patient. The move appears aimed at ensuring that medicines remain available to patients despite the additional cost to taxpayers.

“Today’s announcement is an important step to ensure that patients can access innovations as quickly as possible,” said Nicola Perrin, chief executive of the Association of Medical Research Charities.

Active Ingredient Imports

The development and manufacture of medications is a global industry, and active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) and other components of a drug are often sourced outside the United States.

Just 15 percent of the APIs for brand-name medications sold in the United States are produced domestically, according to U.S. Pharmacopeia, a global supply chain research group. The European Union is the largest supplier of such ingredients to U.S. manufacturers, accounting for 43 percent of the supply. More than half of the APIs for prescription medicines in the United States are made in India and the EU.

The Trump administration imposed a 15 percent tariff in August on pharmaceuticals and pharmaceutical ingredients imported from Europe.

That tariff is waived for the UK under the terms of the agreement announced on Dec. 1.

Most Favored Nation Plan

Trump had long said that other countries have been taking advantage of the United States by negotiating low prices for pharmaceuticals through their national health plans, driving manufacturers to raise prices for U.S. customers.

“The United States has less than five percent of the world’s population and yet funds around three-quarters of global pharmaceutical profits,” Trump said in an executive order in May.

“This egregious imbalance is orchestrated through a purposeful scheme in which drug manufacturers deeply discount their products to access foreign markets, and subsidize that decrease through enormously high prices in the United States.”

The administration initiated a most favored nation prescription drug pricing policy, which refers to the lowest price available in any developed nation.

In combination with tariffs imposed on imported medications and trade negotiations with other nations, the administration has entered drug price agreements with drugmakers Eli Lilly, Novo Nordisk, EMD Serono, and AstraZeneca over the past three months.

The drug makers agreed to offer their products to the Medicaid program at the most favored nation price and to offer all new medications within the United States at the most favored nation price.

The manufacturers also agreed to sell some medications directly to U.S. consumers at the most favored nation price and to invest in the United States any additional revenue received from increasing prices in other countries.

Each company received a waiver on tariffs on imported pharmaceutical products in exchange for its commitment to honor the four points of Trump’s most favored nation prescription drug pricing plan.

These manufacturers and some others have pledged to participate in TrumpRx.gov, a clearinghouse site that will help private customers find low-priced medications for direct purchase.

Commenting on the UK deal, Chris Klomp, director of Medicare and deputy administrator of the U.S. Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, said, “When nations fairly share the burden of producing and paying for life-saving medicines, every citizen gains, and the fight against global disease becomes one we can actually win together.”

In yet another sign of deepening Russia-China ties on all levels, which has also included cooperation on the military front in the context of the Ukraine war, President Vladimir Putin signed an executive order on Monday temporarily lifting visa requirements for visitors from China.

Chinese travelers can now enter Russia without a visa for up to 30 days, either for tourism or short-term employment purposes. This move mirror’s the Chinese government’s earlier decision to grant visa-free entry to Russian citizens.

Both countries already had in place policies which allowed visa-free entry for group tours. The new rule will remain in place until September of 2026 and is being widely referred to as a pilot program.

President Putin had last week called the step “good and positive breakthrough in the development of our relations” during meetings in Moscow with Chinese Premier Li Qiang.

The timing is interesting as it comes amid an escalating diplomatic spat between Japan and China, which has resulted in Chinese government authorities publicly dissuading Chinese citizens from traveling to Japan.

Lately even concerts by Japanese artists which were set for places like Shanghai have been canceled, and the rift is beginning to be felt among the common populace. The prediction is that there could be a quick influx of Chinese tourists in Russia as a result:

According to market analysts who spoke with The Moscow Times, Putin’s announcement — combined with heightened diplomatic tensions between China and Japan — has led to a sharp increase in travel searches and bookings from China to Russia.

In a Monday statement Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Lin Jian urged Japan to “learn the lessons of history, do soul searching, take seriously what it has heard from the Chinese side, simply retract the erroneous remarks as it should and take practical steps to honor its political commitments to China.”

Amid reports of curbs on seafood imports from Japan, the restaurant scene is also being impacted:

Diners once had to book weeks in advance to secure a table at Toya, a popular Japanese restaurant in Beijing.

But business has taken a sharp turn, with more than 60 reservations cancelled since mid-November, said owner Kazuyuki Tanioka, who has served omakase menus in the Chinese capital for over a decade.

Things are deteriorating fast on every level after Japan suggested it could defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion…

China just declared the San Francisco Peace Treaty “illegal and invalid.”
But here’s the catch: the moment China rejects SFPT, the entire post-WWII map of Asia breaks — and China is the first country to lose territory.

Why?
Because SFPT isn’t just a US–Japan treaty.
It’s the… pic.twitter.com/B5Fq2L03m2

— The Great Translation Movement 大翻译运动 (@TGTM_Official) December 2, 2025

And film releases are being postponed:

The spat has also led to the postponement of Japanese film releases in China, the abrupt cancellation of concerts by Japanese musicians and the suspension of official exchanges.

A frequent traveller to Japan, Yan Jun, faced a dilemma when China advised its citizens to avoid visiting Japan. Chinese airlines proceeded to cut hundreds of Japan-bound flights this month.

Again, if this China-Japan spat persists, it could present and immediate and even potential long-term boon for Russian tourism and industry.

Authored by Janice Hisle and Savannah Hulsey Pointer via The Epoch Times,

An official U.S. terrorist list dominated by jihadist groups and a clutch of cartels has its first European additions in more than two decades: four Antifa groups.

Designating groups as foreign terrorist organizations (FTOs) empowers U.S. federal authorities to investigate the groups’ supporters, prosecute them, and seize their assets.

The European groups, which were added to the list on Nov. 20, include Italian anarchists who carried out a letter-bomb campaign against EU leaders, a German hammer-wielding gang accused of targeting right-wing party members, and two Greek anti-capitalist groups.

The designations reflect President Donald Trump’s commitment “to uproot Antifa’s campaign of political violence,” Secretary of State Marco Rubio wrote when announcing the designations on Nov. 13.

Short for “antifascist,” Antifa seeks to silence people whose viewpoints it defines as “fascist,” and vows to do so “by any means necessary”—a popular Antifa rallying cry.

Here is what to know about the four foreign groups and how, according to one former CIA operative, the designation helps the Trump administration confront Antifa on U.S. soil.

Italy, Home of ‘World’s Largest Anarchist Network’

One of the newly declared FTOs hails from Italy, where fascism originated under dictator Benito Mussolini in the 1920s.

The group is called the Informal Anarchist Federation, also known as the International Revolutionary Front.

The Informal Anarchist Federation “is likely the world’s largest anarchist network and the one that claims the highest number of attacks,” according to a March 2024 report published by the International Centre for Counter-Terrorism.

The group has claimed responsibility for attacks in Italy, Greece, Spain, Germany, the United Kingdom, Indonesia, Chile, Brazil, and Mexico, the report said.

Since 2003, the organization has committed violence, bombings, letter-bombs, and other attacks against places it deems “capitalist institutions,” the State Department said in a Nov. 13 fact sheet. Although it mostly operates in Italy, the group has “self-proclaimed affiliates across Europe, South America, and Asia,” the fact sheet said.

The Informal Anarchist Federation declares that “armed struggle” is necessary against nation-states and “The Fortress Europe,” according to the State Department.

Police officers and demonstrators clash during an anti-fascist and anti-racist march to protest against a Lega Nord party general election campaign rally on Piazza Duomo in Milan on Feb. 24, 2018. Francesca Volpi/Getty Images

In 2014, as Antifa was growing globally, West Point, America’s first military academy, published a profile of the Informal Anarchist Federation.

The report said the group served as a sign that Italy had become “the birthplace of a new threat that has spread to other countries,” the article said.

By then, the Informal Anarchist Federation had been responsible for “dozens of attacks” over a 25-year span in Italy and elsewhere—a trend that Italian authorities had “underestimated” partly because the attacks caused no fatalities, the West Point report said.

However, this type of “insurrectionary anarchism … has become the most dangerous form of domestic non-jihadist terrorism in the country,” the article said.

The Informal Anarchist Federation “has ideological and solidarity ties with Greek anarchist groups,” the report said.

Greek Anti-Capitalist Groups

Revolutionary Class Self-Defense and Armed Proletarian Justice are two newly designated FTOs that are based in Greece.

Both claim to be “anti-capitalist” and are known to use improvised explosive devices in attacks against Greek governmental targets.

Revolutionary Class Self-Defense has been outspoken in its solidarity with Palestine’s conflicts with Israel; the group dedicated two recent attacks to the Palestinians.

In February 2024, an explosive device targeted the Greek Ministry of Labor, but officials evacuated the area, resulting in no injuries.

In April 2025, Revolutionary Class Self-Defense claimed responsibility for that attack and also for an explosion at the Hellenic Train offices, saying railway safety concerns motivated the attack.

Members of the Greek police counterterrorism unit investigate the area outside Hellenic Train offices after a bomb exploded in Athens on April 11, 2025. The U.S. State Department designated both the Greece-based Revolutionary Class Self-Defense and Armed Proletarian Justice groups as foreign terrorist organizations. Aris Oikonomou/SOOC/AFP via Getty Images

The other Greek group, Armed Proletarian Justice, claimed responsibility for a 2023 bombing attempt at a police headquarters in Athens.

In a public post on an anarchist website, the group said: “You were lucky this time, the same will not apply next time. We dedicate our action to those who have been murdered, tortured, beaten and raped by the Greek Police.”

Germany’s Hammer Gang

After antifascism took hold in Italy, some people in Germany also became early adopters of antifascist ideology; Germany is often considered the cradle of the Antifa movement as we know it today. That’s partly because it was the origin of flags and other symbols still in use, along with the “black bloc” protest method, in which participants don black masks and clothing to avoid being identified.

A group known as Antifa Ost, German for “Antifa East,” stands out among the four new FTO designees partly because of its methods.

As its nickname, the Hammerbande—German for “Hammer Gang”—implies, Antifa Ost has been known to bludgeon its victims with hammers. Hammer attacks have been carried out in broad daylight, online videos show.

Seven members of the group began standing trial in Germany Nov. 25 for attempted murder and other charges. From 2018 to 2023, the group attacked people it regarded as fascists, German prosecutors said.

However, at the time of the FTO designation, German authorities downplayed the threat that Antifa Ost might pose.

Interior Ministry spokesperson Sarah Fruehauf told reporters that the group’s leaders and most-violent members were either in custody or imprisoned.

German government spokesperson Steffen Meyer said Washington acted without influence from Berlin in declaring the group a terrorist organization.

The U.S. designation of Antifa Ost as an FTO followed Hungary’s decision to impose that label on the group.

In 2023, outrage spread among Hungarians after Antifa Ost members were accused of injuring nine people at a right-wing gathering in Budapest described as “extremist” in the European press. At least one person was a passerby who was singled out for the attack because he wore camouflage-print clothes, marking him as a potential fascist to the attackers, Hungary Today reported.

Demonstrators hold antifa flags and banners during a Revolutionary May Day march in the Neukoelln district in Berlin on May 1, 2025. The Trump administration designated the German group Antifa Ost as a foreign terrorist organization; it is also known as “Hammerbande,” German for “Hammer Gang.” Odd Andersen/AFP via Getty Images

Prosecution of one suspect, Italian citizen Ilaria Salis, was interrupted in 2024 after she won a seat in the European Parliament, granting her immunity.

A social media account under the name “antifaost” states in its profile, “Action against the far right in eastern Germany. Never again fascism!”

What Power Does FTO Label Give US?

Simply put, the FTO designation makes it illegal for anyone in the United States to conduct business with the groups, or to provide material support or resources to them.

FTO designation falls under section 219 of the Immigration and Nationality Act and Executive Order 13224.

The FTO designation was made after Trump signed an executive order in September naming Antifa a “domestic terrorist organization.”

Trump’s order commanded agencies to “investigate, disrupt, and dismantle any and all illegal operations—especially those involving terrorist actions—conducted by Antifa or any person claiming to act on behalf of Antifa.”

FBI Director Kash Patel told The Epoch Times, “With our partners in Treasury, we are following the money and mapping out this entire network and treating them as a terrorist organization under the authorities the president has given us.

“In the turn of the new year, you’re going to see some very righteous prosecutions and investigations being publicized,” the director added.

An Antifa demonstrator kicks a smoke bomb back toward federal officers outside Immigration and Customs Enforcement offices in Portland, Ore., on Oct. 5, 2025. John Fredricks/The Epoch Times

US Antifa ‘Networked With Foreign Antifa’

J. Michael Waller, a former CIA operative who now serves as a senior analyst at the Center for Security Policy, said Trump’s FTO declarations have “energized the fight against domestic violent extremism by bringing ironclad existing federal laws into play.”

“These foreign groups and domestic Antifa communicate back and forth. There are degrees of collaboration,” he told The Epoch Times. “The FTO designation gives authorities here more tools to crack down on domestic extremists in ways that have already been settled in court.”

While federal laws define FTO, there is no such definition for “domestic terrorist organization.” That designation might face a court challenge.

“However, it narrows the dangerous, anti-free-speech ‘countering violent extremism’ designation” that originated under President Barack Obama, Waller said.

Trump’s “domestic terrorist” label relies on laws that define terrorism, while Obama’s “violent extremism” label lacked such legal underpinnings. Therefore, the Obama-era label could easily be applied in a “random and arbitrary” way, he said.

Together, the domestic and foreign designations weaken U.S-based groups. “American Antifa is networked with foreign Antifa, and so this is a way to go in and to use foreign terrorism-support laws against American terrorist groups,” Waller said.

Some people harbor misconceptions about Antifa, Waller said. Observers may accept that fascism is bad. So, because the groups say they’re “antifascist,” people perceive “they must be good guys,” he said, and that violent or unruly protests result from “youthful frustration.”

“They’re not just out there to smash windows … Their goal is to overthrow our government,” Waller said, perhaps one city at a time.

Antifa employs tactics and ideology espoused by Russian dictator Josef Stalin, Waller noted.

Post-World-War-I, the goal of German Antifa, established in 1932 under Stalin’s influence, was to “tear out” political centrists and polarize the nation. Communists joined anarchists on one side, opposing Nazis on the other. That polarization is what brought German dictator Adolf Hitler to power, Waller said.

The Unity Congress of Antifa at the Philharmonic Opera House, organized by Germany’s Communist Party in response to Benito Mussolini’s rise in the 1920s, in Berlin on July 10, 1932. Public Domain

Future Ramifications

Waller called the FTO designations “a really smart move” to prevent the groups’ adherents from spreading propaganda in the United States or entering the country. The designation also blocks access to domestic bank accounts.

It is vital for Trump to take action to halt Antifa, Waller said. “This has to be smashed—now. He can’t have a successful presidency and leave us to inherit this mess any further.”

Five recent guilty pleas in a Texas Antifa terrorism case will strengthen future prosecutions, Waller said.

In that case, the Department of Justice (DOJ) “worked with outside groups to formulate a very fine and legally bulletproof definition of what Antifa is as an organization—not just a nebulous idea like we had been led to believe,” he said.

He called that strategy “brilliant.”

With those plea agreements, “the DOJ has just proven under law that [Antifa] is an organization,” he said, a definition that might have taken years to prove in court otherwise.

Additional defendants still face charges in that case, which arose from a July confrontation at an immigration-detention center; an officer was shot but survived.

President Donald Trump (C) chairs a roundtable about Antifa in the State Dining Room of the White House on Oct. 8, 2025. The foreign terrorist organization designation followed Trump’s September order labeling Antifa a domestic terrorist organization. Jim Watson/AFP via Getty Images

Prior to Trump’s orders, the FBI “had no reason to monitor” or even learn about Antifa cells, Waller said.

Trump’s directives changed that. “This is a priority presidential order for them, and suddenly there’s a whole lot of interest in it,” Waller said, adding, “This is just the beginning of a very long term, very well-thought-out strategic plan.”

President Trump has issued a rare criticism and brush back of Israel’s expansionist policy in Syria, where in the south of the country Israel’s military has launched recent deadly ground and aerial raids which go way beyond just the Golan Heights.

Trump has warned that the future of Syria’s stability is at stake. He wrote in a Monday post on Truth Social, “The United States is very satisfied with the results displayed, through hard work and determination, in the Country of Syria. We are doing everything within our power to make sure the Government of Syria continues to do what was intended, which is substantial, in order to build a true and prosperous Country.”

While touting that he has recently terminated long existing sanctions on Syria, Trump crucially warned “It is very important that Israel maintain a strong and true dialogue with Syria, and that nothing takes place that will interfere with Syria’s evolution into a prosperous State.”

He then once again praised the founder of al-Qaeda in Syria, Ahmed al-Sharaa, who since Assad’s ouster a year ago declared himself ‘interim president’.

Trump’s message to Israel is that ‘interference’ in Syria’s affairs could hinder the potential for “peace in the Middle East” – which Washington wants to see, according to his message. Times of Israel is reporting that Trump’s Truth Social post was issued alongside an important phone call with PM Netanyahu on Monday:

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and US President Donald Trump are speaking by phone, according to multiple Hebrew media reports.

The call comes after Trump warned Israel against destabilizing Syria and its new leadership, days after IDF soldiers battled gunmen in the country’s south.

Israel last Friday had launched another unprovoked major attack on Syria, which killed at least 13 people, including children – and additionally some 25 were reported injured.

The widely reported assault on the southern Syrian town of Beit Jinn constituted a rare ground raid by Israeli forces, accompanied by air and artillery support. Israel troops actually took on casualties – with at least six that were reported wounded, including two critically.

Israeli drones have also been active over the area. In post-Assad Syria, the IDF has encroached more and more on Syrian territory, expanding significantly beyond its Golan Heights occupation.

Trump issues a warning against Israel’s Netanyahu over its illogical incursions in the south;

“It is very important that Israel maintain a strong and true dialogue with Syria, and that nothing takes place that will interfere with Syria’s evolution into a prosperous State.” pic.twitter.com/TPVN7onQJT

— Ragıp Soylu (@ragipsoylu) December 1, 2025

The Israeli military has described that the high-risk operation was launched to detain suspects belonging to Jama’a Islamiya – a Lebanese Sunni Islamist group which is alleged to have fired rockets at Israel from Lebanon during the Gaza war. The statement further charged the group “terrorist plots”.

However, Trump’s Monday statement is a very mild criticism at best. It could be that Israel is actually getting these Syrian operations approved by US military commanders in the region. 

Via Remix News,

After a flamboyant speaker went viral at the Alternative for Germany (AfD) Youth Congress, there are questions about Alexander Eichwald. Speculation is growing about whether he is an undercover agent, a left-wing satirist, or actually just a genuine AfD supporter. Regardless of the truth, the AfD is already preparing to expel him from the party.

Social media has been asking questions about Eichwald, who sported a blue dinner jacket, after his speech at the AfD Youth Congress in Giessen over the weekend.

Even within the party, there is no clear answer about who he is.

🇩🇪🔴Many on the right are accusing this man of being an undercover agent.

After Alexander Eichwald went viral for his “Hitler-like” speech at the Alternative for Germany (AfD) Youth Congress, speculation is growing about who he actually is.

During his viral speech, he compared… pic.twitter.com/AtJMiz3Bzn

— Remix News & Views (@RMXnews) December 1, 2025

The newly elected head of the AfD’s young group “Generation Germany,” Jean-Pascal Hohm, also had no answer to questions about Eichwald.

“No matter whether you’re a left-wing provocateur, an undercover agent or simply crazy – anyone who acts like that has no place in the AfD and its youth organization,” he told the dpa news agency.

“Alexander Eichwald’s appearance once again showed how important it is to look closely at admission interviews to see who you accept into the party and who you don’t,” he added.

Eichwald’s speech, in which he used to term “party comrades” and referred to dog breeds when selecting who is allowed into Germany, drew comparisons to Hitler and his propaganda chief Joseph Goebbels.

With his speech, Eichwald applied for a position on the board of the newly founded “Generation Germany.” Eichwald clearly lost to Alexander Claus, receiving only 12 percent of votes.

When asked by the dpa whether his appearance was serious, he only responded “yes” and then left the conference hall.

Already, there is speculation about whether the speaker was an undercover agent of the powerful spy agency, the Office for the Protection of the Constitution (BfV). The BfV is known to place informants inside the parties it targets, with the AfD one of its main concerns. However, others speculated the man is a satirist, potentially from the left. Still, there is no confirmation as of yet who the man actually is.

AfD co-leader Tino Chrupalla announced an audit of the data and membership rights of Eichwald, who has only been part of the NRW-AfD in Herford since October.

As a result, Eichwald was removed from the AfD council by circular resolution on Sunday.

“Accordingly, the measure was also taken to aim yesterday by circular resolution to exclude Mr. Eichwald from the party through a party expulsion procedure.“

Additionally, measures are being pursued to have him removed from the party entirely.

AfD parliamentary group leader in Herford, Michael Schneidermann spoke to Welt about Eichwad.

“He touted himself here as a political scientist and student and said he would like to take part in local politics. He did, too.“

The Herford AfD parliamentary group leader, commenting on Eichwald’s speech, said the 30-year-old man had “absolutely unmasked“ himself with his appearance.

“At the weekend in Giessen, that was behavior that I was absolutely not aware of,” said Schneidermann.

Schneidermann also speculated that Eichwald may be an undercover agent “sent from a satirical background.” Schneidermann also said that Eichwald “damaged the party and also reputation of the youth wing of the AfD, which had just been founded.”

Read more here…