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Fearing US Reprisals, Mexico Halts Oil Shipment To Cuba

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Fearing US Reprisals, Mexico Halts Oil Shipment To Cuba

Via The Libertarian Institute

Mexico’s state oil company, Pemex, has backed out of a planned oil shipment to Cuba, the country’s president appeared to confirm. The move comes after President Donald Trump insisted that “zero” oil would be sent to the island, and follows reports that Washington plans regime change there by the end of the year.

Speaking during her daily press conference on Tuesday, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum did not deny earlier reports about the canceled Pemex shipment, which was originally scheduled for sometime in January.

Eyepix Group/Shutterstock

“It is a sovereign decision, and it is made at the time deemed necessary,” she said when asked about the reports, stressing that such shipments are determined by the state oil firm.

Reuters reported last week that the Mexican government was reviewing whether to continue sending oil to Cuba, fearing potential reprisals from the United States.

Washington has maintained a full trade embargo on the island for decades, and imposed a blockade on Venezuelan oil bound for Cuba late last year, soon after US forces captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro over dubious drug charges.

While that left Mexico as Cuba’s main petroleum supplier – accounting for some 44% of its crude imports, per UPI – President Trump insisted that “zero” money or oil would be sent to the island earlier this month, forcing Mexico to reevaluate its trade policy.

Asked whether her country could play a role mediating discussions between Washington and Havana, Sheinbaum said such an initiative could only proceed if it were requested by both sides, but added that Mexico would continue to promote dialogue.

Those efforts may be insufficient, however, as Washington is now reportedly seeking to execute regime change in Cuba by the end of the year, according to recent reporting by the Wall Street Journal.

The paper said last week that US officials were seeking “Cuban government insiders who can help cut a deal to push out the Communist regime” in the coming months, hoping to use Maduro’s kidnapping as a “blueprint” to topple the Cuban state.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 01/28/2026 – 11:05

WTI Holds Gains After Winter Storm Sparks Biggest Total Inventory Draw Since October

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WTI Holds Gains After Winter Storm Sparks Biggest Total Inventory Draw Since October

Oil prices hit a fresh four-month high this morning after President Trump threatened another attack on Iran, urging Tehran to negotiate a nuclear deal.

“Hopefully Iran will quickly ‘Come to the Table’ and negotiate a fair and equitable deal,” Trump said in a post on his Truth Social network, adding that “the next attack will be far worse!” than the one that took place last year.

Prices pared gains somewhat after Iran’s mission to the UN repeated in a post on X that it stands ready for dialogue based on mutual respect and interests, but said it will “defend itself and respond like never before,” to US aggression.

API

  • Crude -247k

  • Cushing -92k

  • Gasoline -415k

  • Distillates +2.01mm

DOE

  • Crude -2.295mm (+1.95mm exp)

  • Cushing -278k

  • Gasoline +223k

  • Distillates +329k

Total crude and fuel stockpiles fell last week for the first time since early December led by a surprise crude draw (bigger than the small one reported by API)…

Source: Bloomberg

Bloomberg reports that the 6 million barrel draw (which was the biggest since October) was led by a decline in crude inventories and also the biggest drop in propane inventories since early last year ahead of the big freeze. 

Crude production fell to 13.7 million barrels a day last week, down by 36,000 barrels a day from the previous week. The drop may reflect the initial impact of the winter storm that hit the US in recent days and came as the number of rigs drilling for oil edged higher for a second week, with 1 unit put into operation last week, according to Baker Hughes.

Source: Bloomberg

WTI is holding on to early gains after the surprise draw…

Finally, circling back to the start, the potential risk to Iranian supplies has injected a premium into oil prices and led futures to start the year on a strong footing, up more than 10% this month, despite forecasts for a glut. That has also kept the cost of bullish options high relative to bearish ones.

“Market sentiment appears to be gradually turning more positive, as the bearish oversupply narrative so prevalent in the second half of 2025 weakens,” Standard Chartered analysts including Emily Ashford wrote in a note.

“We envisage an uptick in volatility and increasing focus on both supply and demand risks.”

The prompt spread for both oil benchmarks — the difference between their two nearest contracts — has widened in a bullish backwardation structure over the course of this month, indicating tighter supply. 

Tyler Durden
Wed, 01/28/2026 – 10:42

Amazon Cuts 16,000 Jobs As Tech Layoffs Accelerate In 2026

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Amazon Cuts 16,000 Jobs As Tech Layoffs Accelerate In 2026

Amazon is laying off about 16,000 more employees as it works to cut bureaucracy and respond to growing competition from AI.

The move follows October’s 14,000 job cuts and the closure of its gaming unit. The company also announced it will shut down its Amazon-branded grocery and cashierless stores.

A note on the company’s website on Wednesday said: “I want to let you know that we’re making additional organizational changes across Amazon that will impact some of our teammates. I recognize this is difficult news, which is why I’m sharing what’s happening and why.”

“As I shared in October, we’ve been working to strengthen our organization by reducing layers, increasing ownership, and removing bureaucracy. While many teams finalized their organizational changes in October, other teams did not complete that work until now.”

It continued: “The reductions we are making today will impact approximately 16,000 roles across Amazon, and we’re again working hard to support everyone whose role is impacted. That starts with offering most US-based employees 90 days to look for a new role internally (timing will vary internationally based on local and country level requirements).”

“While we’re making these changes, we’ll also continue hiring and investing in strategic areas and functions that are critical to our future. We’re still in the early stages of building every one of our businesses and there’s significant opportunity ahead,” it concludes.

Amazon’s layoffs follow other major tech cuts early in 2026, including Autodesk’s plan to eliminate about 1,000 roles (~7% of its workforce) amid a restructuring that includes shifting investment toward AI and cloud, and Pinterest’s decision to cut nearly 15% of employees as it reallocates resources toward AI initiatives; layoffs trackers also show thousands of tech workers have already been affected by job reductions across dozens of firms so far this year.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 01/28/2026 – 10:30

USD Pops, Yen Drops As TsySec Bessent Says “Absolutely Not Intervening”

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USD Pops, Yen Drops As TsySec Bessent Says “Absolutely Not Intervening”

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC Sara Eisen this morning that “the US always has a strong dollar policy”.

This statement comes after President Trump’s apparent ‘comfort’ last night with the dollar declining…

When asked if he was worried about losses in the dollar, Trump told reporters in Iowa on Tuesday: “No, I think it’s great.”

Bessent then dropped two more tapebombs…

While stating that “WE DON’T COMMENT ON INTERVENTION SPECULATION”…

Bessent then confirmed that “US IS ‘ABSOLUTELY NOT’ INTERVENING IN DOLLAR-YEN NOW”

This prompted yen weakness, retracing some of the post ‘rate check’ rally…

…and dollar strength…

This move comes minutes after Goldman Sachs Delta-One desk head warned: Near-term, feels dangerous to press dollar downside given how extreme the moves have been.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 01/28/2026 – 10:18

War Drums In Gulf: US Armada Arrives As Saudi Arabia, UAE Deny Airspace Access

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War Drums In Gulf: US Armada Arrives As Saudi Arabia, UAE Deny Airspace Access

Things between Tehran and Washington are moving fast according to an eerily familiar pattern hearkening back to the lead-up to the 12-day June war, when there was some wrangling over negotiations – and talk of good faith efforts at dialogue – just before the US greenlighted a surprise Israeli attack which also saw US entry into the conflict by the close of it (whereupon nuclear facilities were hit by American bombers).

“Our stance is clear,” Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said Wednesday as the US has expressed the desire to strike a deal. “Negotiations don’t go along with threats, and talks can only take place when there are no longer menaces and excessive demands.”

  • IRAN SAYS WILL RESPOND TO US ‘LIKE NEVER BEFORE’ IF PUSHED
  • IRAN SAYS READY FOR TALKS WITH US BASED ON MUTUAL RESPECT
  • OIL PARES GAINS AS IRAN SAYS ITS READY FOR TALKS WITH US

Araqchi confirmed his country has had no recent communication with US special envoy Steve Witkoff and has not sought talks with Washington. President Donald Trump said Tuesday that another US “armada” was moving “beautifully” toward Iran, but he hoped Tehran would ultimately strike a deal and avoid conflict.

via The Australian 

The Iranian FM noted, however, that unnamed intermediaries were “holding consultations” and remained in touch with Iranian officials.

Separately, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian told Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman on Tuesday that Tehran supports any process “within the framework of international law” that helps avert war. The Saudis have joined the UAE in declaring that the US cannot use its airspace for aggression against Iran. 

This shouldn’t pose too big a challenge for the Pentagon, however, which has a build-up of assets at its Qatar base and with a carrier group near Iran in regional waters.

But The Wall Street Journal disagrees, saying this could be a significant setback if the White House wishes to pursue war plans:

The declarations from the two Gulf states represent a foreign policy setback for the Trump administration as it seeks to ratchet up pressure on Tehran, which has defied Washington’s demand that it halt uranium enrichment and end the suppression of protesters.

Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the kingdom’s de facto leader, outlined his country’s position while talking by phone with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian. 

A Saudi readout of the Tuesday call said the crown prince had stressed that the kingdom “will not allow its airspace or territory to be used for any military actions against Iran.”

Previously, during Monday remarks, President Trump said “They want to make a deal. I know so. They called on numerous occasions. They want to talk.” He added ominously, “We have a big armada next to Iran. Bigger than Venezuela.”

US forces stationed across the Middle East are also meanwhile taking part in large-scale war games aimed at showcasing combat readiness, as Washington ramps up its military footprint, and as Trump is presented with an array of ‘options’. All of this supposedly steps from Washington ‘concern’ for large-scale protests from earlier this month, where thousands died – but which also included the deaths of police and security services.

In a statement which kicked off the week, US Central Command said: “Ninth Air Force will be conducting a multi-day readiness exercise to demonstrate the ability to deploy, disperse, and sustain combat airpower across the Central Command (CENTCOM) area of responsibility.”

President Trump issued the following “time is running” out message Wednesday morning:

The command added that “this exercise is designed to enhance asset and personnel dispersal capability, strengthen regional partnerships and prepare for flexible response execution throughout CENTCOM.”

The sweeping drills are unfolding against the backdrop of sharply rising tensions with Tehran in which an oil blockade and potential strikes on senior officials in the Islamic Republic are being considered. But in terms of blockades, two can play at that game, as the Strait of Hormuz remains among the most vital waterways for the global market, and the IRGC has threatened that its forces can shut it to international transit.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 01/28/2026 – 09:25

TikTok Users Report Trouble Posting About Epstein, ICE, Days After Company Finalizes Sale To US Investors

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TikTok Users Report Trouble Posting About Epstein, ICE, Days After Company Finalizes Sale To US Investors

Censorship concerns are back in the spotlight after TikTok users claim to be having trouble posting about Jeffrey Epstein and ICE raids.

Days after the company finalized a sale to a consortium of American investors who now control TikTok’s business in the US – which averted a national ban of the app over national security concerns – users report being unable to use the word “Epstein” in direct messages. 

The company responded, telling NPR “We don’t have rules against sharing the name ‘Epstein’ in direct messages and are investigating why some users are experiencing issues.”

TikTok said none of its content moderation rules have changed.

Still, when some users tried to send direct messages containing the word “Epstein,” an automatic prompt appeared declaring that the message may be in violation of TikTok’s community guidelines. The messages were not sent, according to the prompt, “to protect our community.”

Tests by NPR, and other accounts on social media, show that it was happening inconsistently; Some users were able to send messages with “Epstein,” and some were not. The TikTok spokesman said that is consistent with the company’s own analysis so far, yet the exact cause is still under review.

TikTok users are also claiming that the platform is censoring information related to the Trump administration’s immigration enforcement actions, as many users on the platform report being unable to upload videos on the topic. 

Some are pointing a finger at TikTok’s new ownership – which includes lead investor Oracle, run by billionaire Larry Ellison, a close friend of President Trump. Users are now circulating the hashtag #TikTokCensorship on X. 

It’s nice to see Democrats suddenly discovering free speech.

Sen. Chris Murphy (D-CT) says this is at the ‘top of the list’ when it comes to threats to democracy. We don’t remember him piping up when conservatives were being censored for a decade…

TikTok said in a statement that ‘glitches’ on the app were due to a power outage at a US data center, causing videos to take longer to be uploaded and recommended to other users, and are “unrelated to last week’s news” of the finalized sale. 

Oracle, meanwhile, blamed the winter storm that has affected large swaths of central and eastern US, saying in a statement that an Oracle data center “experienced a temporary weather-related power outage,” triggering wide-spread “technical issues” for users of TikTok, said spox Michael Egbert, who added that the companies are working “quickly” to restore service and stabilize the app. 

On Tuesday, TikTok US Joint Venture said it had made “significant progress” in restoring service to US users, but noted that many might still have trouble uploading new videos.  

Nurse Jen Hamilton, who has over 4.5 million TikTok followers, says that after she posted a still picture about Alex Pretti, a protester who was shot by one or more federal immigration agents on Saturday, her next four videos couldn’t be uploaded. 

“Something has shifted in the way that content is getting put on the platform, or allowed to be on the platform,” she told CNN. “And I just find it very ironic that it’s the same day that it takes over that people are not being able to post their stuff.”

While it would be difficult to prove TikTok is censoring content about ICE due to its opaque algorithm, it would also be within their legal right to do so, says Jeffrey Blevins, a professor at the University of Cincinnati who studies media law and ethics. 

“They’re a private platform. They have a First Amendment right to do that,” he said. “A lot of times it’s easy for us to think of social media as a public square, but it’s not public in a way that matters under the law.”

Tyler Durden
Wed, 01/28/2026 – 09:10

Langley Plants The Flag: CIA Takes Point In Post-Maduro Venezuela

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Langley Plants The Flag: CIA Takes Point In Post-Maduro Venezuela

The CIA is “quietly working” to establish a permanent footprint inside Venezuela to shape the country’s post-Maduro trajectory, according to a CNN report Tuesday – or rather it’s not-so-quietly, with sources saying Washington intends to run Caracas much the way it penetrated Ukraine after 2014.

While the State Department is planning an eventual reopening of a formal US embassy, setting up a CIA annex has been elevated to “priority number one,” an unnamed US official told CNN – though there are serious questions as to why the agency would want to advertise this all over CNN.

From that base, agency operatives would engage with the interim government of Delcy Rodríguez, cultivate opposition factions, and “target third parties who may be threats,” according to the source.

Via Shutterstock

A former US official described the annex as a workaround to traditional diplomacy:

“Before diplomatic channels the annex can help set up liaison channels… that will allow conversations that diplomats cannot have.”

In other words, the intelligence apparatus moves first, with formal diplomacy to follow. According to the unnamed official:

“State plants the flag but CIA is really the influence,” one source familiar with the planning process told CNN, noting the agency’s near-term objectives include setting the stage for diplomatic efforts – including relationship building with locals – and providing security.

Of course, no thinking person was entertaining any illusions that it would be anything less than a Langley outpost in Latin America. This is par for the South American course.

CNN notes, “The US has routinely sent CIA directors or top intelligence officials to have sensitive meetings with world leaders to discuss sensitive matters that are based on US intelligence collection.”

However, President Rodríguez (former VP, now US-backed) has publicly pushed back against Washington this week in a rare first since the US military invasion and overthrow of Nicolás Maduro, asserting she has had “enough” of US directives.

While President Trump has declared that Washington would effectively “run” Venezuela, he later endorsed Rodríguez as a temporary caretaker during the transition, despite her being as hardcore a Leftist pro-Maduro figure as anyone.

“Enough already of Washington’s orders regarding politicians in Venezuela,” she had said days ago.

Among the first US actions has been to cut off Venezuela’s oil supply to nearby ally Cuba, which threatens to sink the island-nation’s economy further, after it has endured many decades of Washington sanctions.

Despite this big talk of distancing herself from American interests, Rodríguez warmly greeted CIA Director John Ratcliffe this month, and there was even a photo op. Ratcliffe, as the first top US official to meet with her in the wake of the Jan.3rd military operation, reportedly delivering Trump’s conditions for resetting relations.

The fact that she has even remained in power this long suggests that she is playing ball behind the scenes, and that any anti-American public declarations are primarily for Venezuelan domestic consumption.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 01/28/2026 – 05:45

Spanish Nationalists Furious: Socialist PM Sánchez Decrees Amnesty For 500K Illegals, Skirts Parliament

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Spanish Nationalists Furious: Socialist PM Sánchez Decrees Amnesty For 500K Illegals, Skirts Parliament

Authored by Thomas Brooke via Remix News,

Spain’s struggling socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez has agreed with the far left to push through a mass amnesty for around 500,000 illegal immigrants by royal decree, bypassing parliament and avoiding any binding vote in Congress.

The extraordinary regularization, negotiated between Sánchez’s Socialist Party (PSOE) and the far-left Podemos, is due to be approved by the Council of Ministers on Tuesday. By using a royal decree, the government can impose the measure directly, despite the fact that an almost identical proposal has been stalled in parliament for more than a year due to a lack of majority support.

Under the agreement, illegal migrants who can prove they were in Spain before Dec. 31, 2025, and have remained in the country for at least five months will be eligible for provisional residence and work permits, provided they have no serious criminal record. The moment an application is filed, any deportation or return proceedings will be suspended. If approved, applicants will receive a one-year residence permit, eligible for renewal. Podemos estimates that more than half a million people will benefit.

Podemos figures have openly celebrated the move. As cited by El País, Irene Montero, former equality minister and now an MEP, described the amnesty as an “urgent measure of social justice” and said her party would ensure the process is “swift.”

She claimed the regularization was necessary to protect migrants from what she described as “racist violence” and framed the policy as the granting of rights to people allegedly denied them through “institutional racism.”

The government argues that the decree merely provides legal certainty for an “existing social reality.” Critics, however, have labeled the move undemocratic and catastrophic for the message it sends to illegal immigrants who are still arriving in large numbers.

The amnesty mirrors a Popular Legislative Initiative backed by more than 700,000 signatures, but that proposal has been blocked in Congress for over a year because it lacks sufficient support. Rather than negotiate or abandon it, the executive has opted to force it through without parliamentary oversight.

The decision comes as illegal immigration in Spain has exploded. According to estimates from the Funcas think tank, cited by La Gaceta, the number of undocumented immigrants has risen from about 107,000 in 2017 to nearly 840,000 in 2025, an increase of almost 685 percent. Funcas estimates that illegal migrants now account for 17.2 percent of the non-EU foreign population in Spain. The think tank warns that mass regularizations do not reduce illegal immigration if current entry and legalization practices continue.

Santiago Abascal, leader of Spain’s right-wing Vox party, wrote on X, “500,000 illegals! The tyrant Sánchez hates the Spanish people. He wants to replace them. That’s why he intends to create a pull factor by decree, to accelerate the invasion. It must be stopped. Repatriations, deportations, and immigration.”

Vox MEP Hermann Tertsch, who is also vice-president of the Patriots for Europe group in the European Parliament, accused the government of attempting to import voters, saying, “These criminals want to bring all of Africa to see if they can at least buy the votes of those who don’t know Spanish.”

Migration analyst Rubén Pulido also condemned the move, calling it “a direct attack on our security” that would trigger a new pull factor. “Regularizing half a million illegal immigrants is rewarding illegality, a pardon for those who violate our immigration laws, and an insult to those who respect them,” he said.

Facilitating illegal immigration into the European Union via Spain has become big business, with record numbers arriving on the Canary Islands in recent years, and critics of Sánchez’s move argue this will only entice more to embark on the journey.

Several fraud networks have been uncovered in recent months, linked to fake residence permits and sham marriages to help regularize illegal migrants, including one in October last year, where 12 people were arrested for manufacturing fake family links to legitimize the stay of illegals.

Spain’s immigration crisis is also one of security and public safety, with foreigners disproportionately suspected of criminal offenses. In November last year, the Ertzaintza, the autonomous police force of Spain’s Basque Country, revealed that 64 percent of those arrested for crimes in the region were foreigners, including 68 percent of sexual assault and robbery suspects. This is despite migrants making up 14 percent of the Basque population.

In December, a CEU-CEFAS Demographic Observatory report, titled “Demography of Crime in Spain,” found that foreigners, who make up 31 percent of Spain’s prison population, commit per capita 500 percent more rapes and 414 percent more murders than Spanish citizens. The highest rates are seen among Arabs and Latinos, with many of them hailing from countries in South America known for their extremely high crime rates.

Read more here…

Tyler Durden
Wed, 01/28/2026 – 05:00

Chinese Hackers Reportedly Breached Phones At “Heart of Downing Street”

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Chinese Hackers Reportedly Breached Phones At “Heart of Downing Street”

Chinese state-linked hackers reportedly accessed mobile phones “at the heart of Downing Street” as part of a long-running cyber-espionage campaign targeting telecom networks worldwide, according to Fox News.

U.S. intelligence agencies believe the breaches began as early as 2021, though they were publicly revealed in 2024 after American officials warned allies about widespread intrusions into global telecommunications systems.

The campaign targeted several countries, including the U.S. and members of the Five Eyes alliance. Investigators say the attackers may have gained access to the data of millions, with the ability to monitor calls, read messages, and track locations.

Former U.S. national security adviser Anne Neuberger said the “Chinese gained access to networks and essentially had broad and full access,” allowing them to “geolocate millions of individuals” and “record phone calls at will.”

Fox News reports that a source told The Telegraph that the breach reached “right into the heart of Downing Street,” raising concerns that senior U.K. officials may have been affected.

In response, U.S. agencies urged telecom companies in 2024 to strengthen security. A joint advisory in August 2025 warned that Chinese state-sponsored groups, including one known as “Salt Typhoon,” were continuing to target networks globally.

The Telegraph also reported “many” hacking incidents affecting British government phones, particularly during former Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s term from 2022 to 2024.

Former Israeli intelligence chief Yuval Wollman said Salt Typhoon is “one of the most prominent names” in cyber-espionage, with operations extending across Europe, the Middle East, and Africa.

China has previously denied the allegations, calling them “baseless” and “lacking evidence.” U.K. officials have not yet commented on the latest reports.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 01/28/2026 – 04:15

UK’s Government-Controlled Digital ID Is Not The Optional Convenience It Is Being Sold As

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UK’s Government-Controlled Digital ID Is Not The Optional Convenience It Is Being Sold As

Authored by David Thunder via ‘The Freedom Blog;,

The UK government has pledged to introduce a digital ID system for all UK citizens and legal residents by the end of the current Parliament (so no later than 2029). The integration of digital ID into government services, though already under way, has hitherto been largely voluntary. However, is is becoming steadily less optional, as the government has said it will now be required as a precondition for work in the U.K, and a version of it (GOV.UK One Login) is already being imposed unilaterally upon company directors throughout the U.K.

Chief Secretary to the Prime Minister Darren Jones has suggested in a recent interview (19/11) that digital ID is completely optional and will simply make government services more accessible and convenient. But this is a rather disingenuous sales pitch. On the one hand, Starmer himself insists that digital ID will be required as a precondition to work legally in the U.K; on the other hand, like any new technology, there will be a transition period, but voluntariness is unlikely to last forever.

Evidently, the government will not immediately require everyone to use a digital ID in their interactions with government agencies. But as digital ID becomes more normalised, it will likely become as compulsory as holding a passport for international travel. Can you really imagine a modern government allowing “hold-outs” to stay in the physical world while digital ID systems become the norm?

Providing citizens with an easy way to seamlessly verify their identity when they access government services may seem like the “efficient” thing to do. However, this apparent efficiency comes at a high price, exposing citizens to significant risks of government over-reach, surveillance, and system failures.

The old “clunky” system, in which there was bureaucratic redundancy and replication and in which physical ID cards had to be shown to access discrete government services made it more difficult for the government to comprehensively monitor and control a citizen’s choices in real time, and meant a single point of failure in the system did not necessarily compromise all of a citizen’s important data, or disable citizens’ ability to access public services.

The problem with universal digital ID overseen by the State is not that a dystopian State will be born overnight, or that all our data will be stolen the day after the scheme is initiated, but that the architecture of authoritarian control will be set in motion, and the potential repercussions of serious data breaches and system failures will be significantly enlarged.

According to a House of Commons Research Briefing, government statements suggest that “there will be no centralised digital ID database.” But as the same briefing points out, civil rights group Big Brother Watch stresses that “even decentralised systems can behave like centralised ones if identifiers link data across platforms.”

The creation of a digital ID system for accessing a wide range of public services clearly poses grave risks of abuse, given the evident conflict of interest of governments who both oversee the architecture of a digital ID system, and have incentives to extend their control over citizens’ lives.

Unlike a traditional physical ID system, in which there is a local gatekeeper who opens the gate to a service based on limited information – typically, a service-specific database – a digital ID system could, in some future iteration, permit a remote gatekeeper to use an AI algorithm to analyze a citizen’s data and history (unlocked by their ID) and ration their access to a service to induce compliance with the government’s preferred policies. This scenario becomes even more plausible given the momentum behind centralised digital currencies, which could offer governments direct leverage over citizens’ income and spending choices.

Do such scenarios seem far-fetched? If the digital ID system is controlled, overseen and effectively programmed by centralised governments and their agencies, and is already intended as an obligatory verification procedure for employment rights, there is certainly no technological impediment to governments extending the logic of digital surveillance and control, through “mission creep,” to other sectors of social life.

For example, just as a government uses digital ID to track someone’s employment history and residency status as a way of corroborating their right to work, surely it could also use digital ID to track someone’s health history or vaccination status as a criterion for the right to, say, attend public venues, use public transport or enter the country?

And if the same digital ID is associated with a “digital wallet” tied to CBDC (Central Bank Digital Currency), then what is preventing a government from capping a citizen’s spending on international travel once they reach their “carbon allowance”? What if a government-regulated digital ID is required for citizens to post content on social media? This scenario, which is far from fanciful, would give governments leverage to restrict “non-compliant” citizens’ social media activities.

So much for the technological feasibility of leveraging a digital ID system to exert ever greater control over citizens’ lives. Now, do we think government officials are so profoundly committed to civil liberties that they would balk at the thoughts of leveraging digital ID programmes to engage in far-reaching forms of surveillance and control over citizens’ lives? We hardly have grounds for optimism, given Western governments’ abysmal track record during the Covid era, when they were prepared to lock down citizens in their homes based on scientifically flimsy theories of disease control, and “make life hell” (to use a loose translation of President Macron’s notorious expression) for citizens who opted out of an experimental vaccine.

Besides the substantial risks of government surveillance and over-reach, there is a very real risk that citizens’ data may be more exposed to cyber-attacks in a more ambitious, integrated and data-rich digital ID system, and that the very ability to access public services may be as fragile as the weakest point in the system.

On the one hand, government-overseen databases, no less than privately managed databases, have notoriously been compromised, time and again, by serious data breaches and leaks over the years. An increasingly complex and wide-ranging system, linking an ever wider pool of citizens’ data, will be sure to attract the interest of international hackers. On the other hand, if and when these systems experience major glitches, such as the recent outage of internet security company Cloudfare that took ChatGPT and X offline, public services may experience major disruptions, if not paralysis. We want resilience, not just efficiency.

There are more and less safe and efficient ways to harness the technology of digital ID. But the development of digital ID systems should be managed by a complex web of service providers who can develop competitive solutions to the technical problems they pose, under a broad legal framework, and reliance on such systems should be maximally voluntary.

We are living through a major crisis of trust in public institutions. Governments have shown themselves to be unworthy stewards of the ship of State, and citizens are right to distrust their intentions and competence. There could hardly be a worse time – and I’m not saying there ever was a good time – to entrust politicians with an ambitious digital ID programme plagued with risks of government surveillance, technocratic over-reach, system failures, and data breaches.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 01/28/2026 – 03:30