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Stocks Rebound As Fed’s Williams Sparks Surge In Rate-Cut Odds

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Stocks Rebound As Fed’s Williams Sparks Surge In Rate-Cut Odds

After an ugly overnight session, US equity futures are back in the green this morning following dovish comments from NYFed Governor Williams…

In the text of a speech he delivered Friday in Santiago, Chile, Williams said downside risks to employment have increased while upside risks to inflation have eased.

“I view monetary policy as being modestly restrictive, although somewhat less so than before our recent actions,” he said.

“Therefore, I still see room for a further adjustment in the near term to the target range for the federal funds rate to move the stance of policy closer to the range of neutral, thereby maintaining the balance between the achievement of our two goals.”

Additionally, Williams noted he was more worried about employment than inflation:

“My assessment is that the downside risks to employment have increased as the labor market has cooled, while the upside risks to inflation have lessened somewhat,” Williams said in his speech.

“Underlying inflation continues to trend downward, absent any evidence of second-round effects emanating from tariffs.”

That sent rate-cut odds soaring higher…

Amid the most fractured Fed we can remember (exposed by the Minutes released this week), we are surprised that one man’s comments can drive such a surge in the market, but then again, we have argued that very recent market pressure has been aimed at forcing The Fed’s hawks back to the table.

Goldman’s Delta-One desk head, Rich Privorotsky, was as shocked as we were at the level of hawkishness from The Fed, fearing a policy error (before these comments from Williams to walk back that hawkishness):

“I’m amazed Fed speak remains cautious despite all this and we are “odd’s off” on a Dec cut. Arguably a policy error given state of labor market, and I’m in that camp…”

Will stocks need to fall further to trigger The Fed? Or will the reflexive positive reaction to HOPE for a cut, remove the need for an emergency cut?

Tyler Durden
Fri, 11/21/2025 – 08:21

Stratospheric Warming Sparks Goldman Warning Of Looming U.S. Polar Vortex

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Stratospheric Warming Sparks Goldman Warning Of Looming U.S. Polar Vortex

We began this week by publishing a weather note on the latest weather models, warning of an incoming winter cold blast that will sweep across parts of the Lower 48 during the holiday Thanksgiving week.

You might have noticed that the term “polar vortex” has been popping up across the news cycle in recent days, with headline volume (via Bloomberg data) surging to its highest level since early March as another cold blast is expected across the eastern U.S. 

MSM headlines include:

  • CNN: The polar vortex is about to bring a wild weather pattern change

  • The Washington Post: An unusual phenomenon is likely to cause a frigid December in the U.S.

The incoming cold blast has even caught the attention of Goldman analyst Ranald Falconer, who informed clients about the incoming Arctic blast across the eastern and central U.S. for the next two weeks:

On the gas and PMI power front, Henry Hub sold off into the close yesterday but rallying again now; the EIA gas storage numbers showed the first of the winter withdrawals {DOENUSCH Index}. Weather fronts look to be keeping cold air across almost all of the east and central/south U.S. states for the next 14 days. I would expect that to be part of the reason we have seen a $20 move in peak PMI power since mid-October. Interesting note on “severe-weather.eu” about the winter effects of La Nina conditions, where cold Pacific ocean temperature anomalies are being observed. They are confirming the type of stratospheric warming event I mentioned last week, however speaking to my gas traders that breakdown doesn’t appear as severe as previously thought, as the vortex looks to only be disrupted until early December (Strat Observe). Under La Nina conditions, the winter effects can be severe. La Nina acts to redirect the jet stream south, with persistent high pressure over the Northern Atlantic and low pressure over Canada; this in turn brings cold air under the jet stream in western Canada and north west U.S. You can see in the Marquee email note the weather patterns and vortex forecast visuals.

MNI had stated at the close yesterday that the slide in HH might have been on the back of notice from Gulf South Pipeline that pipeline exports for LNG at Freeport might be disrupted, however I can’t see any impact on deliveries on BNEF this morning (Freeport 30d avg 1.63Bcf/day). On the flow side, we have been two way in decent size clips in Jan.

Here’s what the weather community on X is saying:

In energy markets, US NatGas futures are up and to the right. 

The reason: Lower 48’s Heating Degree Days, a simple weather-based metric used to estimate how much energy people will need to heat homes and buildings, is also up and to the right.

Global warming? Oh, right, that narrative was a big lie by globalists who gave unhinged Democrats talking points and a ‘green’ framework that then pushed climate bills to raid the U.S. Treasury that funneled taxpayer dollars into green companies and climate NGOs.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 11/21/2025 – 08:00

Germans Pay 4 Times More For Electricity Than Hungarians In Capital Cities

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Germans Pay 4 Times More For Electricity Than Hungarians In Capital Cities

Via Remix News,

A report out of the International Energy Agency reveals that the Hungarian capital of Budapest had the lowest electricity prices in the EU in October. Meanwhile, the German capital of Berlin ranked as having the most expensive rate in Europe.

German households paid more than four times higher electricity prices on average than Hungarian households in the second half of 2024, reports Magyar Nemzet, based on the IEA study. 

In one section of its report, the agency noted the importance of investments in renewables and efforts to make electricity affordable, adding that prices can vary greatly between countries.

Világgazdaság recently wrote on the latest Eurostat figures from October, which show that Germany had the highest household electricity unit price of 41.08 euro cents, while Hungary’s was 9.34 euro cents per kilowatt hour. The EU and slightly lower European averages were about 2.8 times higher than the Budapest tariff, based on a report by the Finnish VaasaETT analysis company. In addition to Germany, electricity was more expensive than 30 euro cents in eight other capitals.

Hungary has maintained such a low level due to its government’s policy of keeping a cap on utility prices. The Hungarian price regulation has been two-tiered since August 2022: The “classic” reduced utility price (36 forints per kilowatt-hour) is valid up to 2,523 kWh of electricity per year, after which a higher, but still reduced, and non-market-based, official price comes into effect. This 70.10 forint tariff was 10.76 euro cents in October, which is the second lowest among the capitals examined.

It is also worth comparing how much the tariffs, whether low or high in absolute terms, burden households. Based on the October figures, the Hungarian Energy and Public Utilities Regulatory Office calculated that the average amount of electricity and gas consumed by a two-earner household with an average income among the capitals examined. 

Among the households modeled in this way, a Budapest resident spent 1.7 percent of their income on utilities, while a Brussels resident spent 2.2 percent. Lisbon had the worst figure at 6.1 percent. Berlin came in seventh place with 2.5 percent.

An earlier Eurostat calculation from October showed that in the first half of 2025, the Czech Republic had the highest electricity prices (39.16) in classical purchasing power parity (PPS), followed by Poland (34.96) and Italy (34.40).

Hungary once again performed excellently in this comparison with a value of 15.01, which put it in second place after Malta (13.68).

Opposition parties in Hungary have repeatedly called for the Hungarian caps to be cancelled, arguing that the cost is too great. 

Brussels has also shown little sympathy for Hungary’s reliance on Russian gas.

The EU has called for the government to drop this energy, but if Hungary were to stop importing Russian gas, heating prices for Hungarians would spike, as the caps would no longer be sustainable. 

Despite the United States exempting Hungary from its own ban on Russian energy, EU commission head Ursula von der Leyen has been clear that Brussels still expects Budapest to submit a plan to divest itself of Russian energy sources. 

Government calculations show that if Hungary were forced by the EU to forego Russian natural gas and oil, tariffs would increase threefold, directly hurting Hungarian citizens. In addition, the price of energy used by businesses would also rise, which, even if they survived, would be passed on to consumers.

The question may arise as to why Brussels has an interest in weakening the economy of a member state and worsening the financial situation of its population, and why politicians who want to take over the government of Hungary support these efforts, Magyar Nemzet asks. ​​

Read more here

Tyler Durden
Fri, 11/21/2025 – 05:00

Inflation Watch: Countries Losing The Most Purchasing Power In 2025

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Inflation Watch: Countries Losing The Most Purchasing Power In 2025

Imagine earning $100 in January, only to have it buy less than $80 worth of goods or services by December. That’s how fast inflation is eating away at purchasing power in some countries.

This graphic, created by Visual Capitalist’s Jenna Ross in partnership with Plasma, highlights countries with the highest inflation rates and what $100 could be worth by the end of 2025. It’s part of our Money 2.0 series, where we highlight how finance is evolving into its next era. 

The Declining Value of $100 Due to Inflation

Some countries are facing high inflation rates, which means that prices are rising very quickly. As prices rise, money you already hold will buy you less than it did before.

What does this look like in dollar terms? Using projected 2025 inflation rates from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), we estimated what the equivalent of $100 at the start of the year will be worth by the end of 2025.

Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, Oct. 2025.

The IMF expects Venezuela will have an inflation rate of nearly 549% in 2025. In practical terms, this means $100 saved at the start of the year would only buy goods worth $15 by December. Economic sanctions from the U.S. have worsened the financial crisis in the country. 

Even outside this extreme example, many countries are on track to see the local currency lose about a quarter of its purchasing power over the course of the year. This means wages and savings lose value quickly, making everyday essentials like food and rent harder to afford.

How to Protect Purchasing Power

When local money is rapidly losing purchasing power, residents can move their savings into a currency experiencing much lower inflation and more stability.

For instance, stablecoins are primarily pegged to the U.S. dollar and can help people preserve the value of their money. With Plasma One, a global U.S. dollar card, people can quickly sign up on their phone and use their stablecoin balance in more than 150 countries.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 11/21/2025 – 04:15

Netanyahu Visits Israeli Troops Inside Southern Syria In Provocative First

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Netanyahu Visits Israeli Troops Inside Southern Syria In Provocative First

Via Middle East Eye

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met with Israeli soldiers in occupied Syria on Wednesday, where the faces of the troops were blurred out in photos and videos to protect them from the risk of legal action over allegations of involvement in war crimes.

Netanyahu, Defense Minister Israel Katz, Foreign Minister Gideon Saar, Eyal Zamir, the Israeli military chief of staff, and several other security officials toured military positions in the buffer zone area unilaterally seized by Israel in December

PM Benjamin Netanyahu meets Israeli soldiers, whose faces are blurred, in an Israeli military outpost in southern Syria on November 19, 2025. via X

Israel, which has already occupied Syria’s Golan Heights in contravention of international law since 1967, expanded its territory in southern Syria following the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s government. It seized all of a UN-patrolled buffer zone which had previously separated Israeli and Syria forces in the Golan Heights. 

Addressing Israeli soldiers at the outpost on Wednesday, Netanyahu said: “We attach immense importance to our capability here, both defensive and offensive, safeguarding our Druze allies, and especially safeguarding Israel and its northern border opposite the Golan Heights.”

He added: “This is a mission that can develop at any moment, but we are counting on you.”cEarlier this year, the Israeli military placed new restrictions on media coverage of soldiers on active combat duty because of growing concern about the risk of legal action.

In response to the visit, Syria’s foreign ministry condemned the visit as “illegal”.

Syria firmly condemns the illegal visit of the Israeli prime minister, defense and foreign ministers, along with other occupying officials, to the south of the Syrian Arab Republic. This constitutes a clear violation of Syria’s sovereignty, territorial integrity, and relevant UN Security Council resolutions,” it said in a statement. 

The ministry said it was part of Israel’s “ongoing policy of aggression and continued breaches against Syrian territory” and that all actions by Israel in southern Syria were “null, void, and legally invalid under international law”.

Ibrahim Olabi, Syria’s ambassador to the United Nations, told the UN Security Council on Wednesday that it should halt Israeli violations, and enforce relevant resolutions including the 1974 disengagement agreement which followed the 1973 Middle East war.

Stephane Dujarric, spokesperson for the UN secretary-general, said the “very public visit” by Israeli officials was “concerning, to say the least”. Dujarric said that UN Resolution 2799, which was recently passed by the Security Council, “called for the full sovereignty, unity, independence, and territorial integrity of Syria”.

During the Security Council meeting this week, Israeli ambassador Danny Danon spoke about Syria but did not address Netanyahu’s visit.  “Show us that Syria is moving away from extremism and radicalism, that the protection of Christians and Jews is not an afterthought but a priority. Show us that the militias are restrained and justice is real and the cycle of indiscriminate killings has ended,” Danon said.

Olabi hit back: “The proving, Mr Ambassador, tends to be on your shoulders. You have struck Syria more than 1,000 times, and we have responded with requests for diplomacy… and responded with zero signs of aggression towards Israel.” He added: “We have engaged constructively. and we still await for you to do the same.”

Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa said recently Israel had conducted over 1,000 air strikes in Syria since December 8 2024, when Assad’s government collapsed. Last week, Sharaa confirmed that his country was in direct talks with Israel on reaching a new security agreement.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 11/21/2025 – 03:30

Putin In Military Fatigues Announces Another Key Ukrainian City Captured

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Putin In Military Fatigues Announces Another Key Ukrainian City Captured

Kupiansk, an important rail junction in the northeastern Kharkiv region, has been taken by Russia’s military on Thursday, in another example of Moscow forces steadily, even if slowly, gobbling up territory along the front lines.

President Putin was all business, showing up in military fatigues as commander-in-chief for a televised briefing from the defense ministry. Without doubt these optics were crafted to signal strength to the West, at a moment the Trump White House is floating a new 28-point peace plan.

Chief of the Russian General Staff Valery Gerasimov informed Putin, “Units of the Battlegroup West have liberated the city of Kupyansk and continue to destroy Ukrainian formations encircled on the left bank of the Oskol River.”

In follow-up the president asked for clarification: “So, that’s it? Did they finish everything?” – and the Battlegroup West commander replied in the affirmative.

As of several weeks ago, Ukraine rejected reports that the city was surrounded, calling it a fabrication. But today’s declaration of victory over the city shows that the case was otherwise.

The same goes for the even more important city of Pokrovsk – as Ukraine has either downplayed or rejected Russia’s claims to have encircled it. But here’s what Reuters is reporting Thursday:

Russia’s defense ministry released video on Thursday showing its soldiers moving freely through the southern part of the Ukrainian city of Pokrovsk, patrolling deserted streets lined with charred apartment blocks.

Russia has been threatening Pokrovsk for more than a year, using a pincer movement to attempt to encircle it and threaten supply lines. Russian maps now show the city under Russian control and Ukrainian troops encircled in neighboring Myrnohrad.

President Putin wants to drive home that his forces continue to be in the driver’s seat and have overwhelming, steady momentum on the ground.

Moscow also finally seems to be making headway with the Trump administration, as it puts forward the new 28-point peace plan which features territorial concessions (for the first time).

Purported location of the video released by the Russian Ministry of Defense:

Source: Google Maps

The US side appears to be bringing pressure to bear on Zelensky, toward ending the war based on serious compromise:

The White House says Army Secretary Dan Driscoll felt optimistic following a meeting with Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky, who is now planning to speak with President Trump about the 28-point peace plan reportedly hashed out mostly with Russia in recent weeks. 

“Sec. Driscoll did meet with President Zelensky today,” Karoline Leavitt, the White House press secretary, told reporters on Thursday. 

“We spoke with him. He was very optimistic following that meeting. And so again, we are having good conversations with both sides with respect to ending the war.”

But it remains that Zelensky has throughout the war consistently rejected any proposal which features territorial concessions. He is supported especially be Ukrainian hardliners, both in the military and in parliament.

Minerals deal 2.0?

Zelensky will likely be encouraged by hawkish European allies to resist any significant concessions which benefit Moscow. But the situation for Kiev is likely desperate on the battlefield, and few options remain.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 11/21/2025 – 02:45

Japan Might Challenge China Sooner Than Expected

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Japan Might Challenge China Sooner Than Expected

Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

It was recently assessed that “Japan Will Play A Much Greater Role In Advancing The American Agenda In Asia”, which its new ultra-nationalist Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has wasted no time in doing.

Her first move in this direction was telling parliament that “If there are battleships and the use of force (by China against Taiwan), no matter how you think about it, it could constitute a survival-threatening situation.”

That lingo refers to a legal term for activating the use of Japan’s “Self-Defense Forces” (SDF).

Although she didn’t elaborate, her controversial logic is presumably that China’s post-war control over Taiwan’s semiconductor industry (provided that it survives the conflict) could lead to it coercing Japan into unilateral strategic concessions, the possibility of which fuels fears of Chinese hegemony over Asia. Takaichi then evaded answering whether her government will abide by Japan’s three non-nuclear principles of no possession of nuclear weapons, no production thereof, and no hosting of others’.

The US’ nuclear submarine deal with South Korea, which was assessed here as making it an informal member of AUKUS, was followed by reports that Japan might clinch its own with the US. In that event, the maritime SDF would pose an even more formidable threat to the People’s Liberation Army-Navy than it already does, which the analysis hyperlinked to at the beginning of this one assessed to already pose a challenge to Russia per the opinion of Putin’s senior aide and leading naval specialist Nikolai Patrushev.

Recalling Japan’s close defense ties with the Philippines, both of which are the US’ mutual defense allies and between whom lies Taiwan, it’s clear that Japan is being empowered by the US to re-establish part of its lost regional sphere of influence in order to contain China on the Asian front of the New Cold War. This parallels the US’ empowerment of Poland for containing Russia on the European front of the New Cold War through the partial re-establishment its own lost regional sphere of influence.

The larger trend is that the US is inciting security dilemmas along the periphery of what can now be described as the Sino-Russo Entente, correspondingly through its mutual defense allies in Japan and Poland who are in turn part of Asia’s NATO-like AUKUS+ and NATO, for dividing-and-ruling Eurasia. Interestingly, just like Japan is now flirting with nuclear weapons, so too did Poland recently reaffirm that it wants to host French nukes and one day even develop its own. The US is expected to back these plans.

Trump 2.0 is therefore fine-tuning the Biden Administration’s “dual containment” of the Sino-Russo Entente, as Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov described the US-led West’s policy as being, to which end it’s focusing more on “Leading From Behind” in order to optimize “burden-sharing”.

The emerging result is a “return to history” in the sense of former regional leaders restoring their lost spheres of influence with US support and all that entails for worsening tensions with the Sino-Russo Entente.

China will never forget the Japanese genocide of its people during World War II while Russia commemorates the expulsion of the Poles from Moscow in 1612 every year on National Unity Day. Neither of these historical traumas are repeatable nowadays due to their nuclear deterrents, but the revival of their historical rivals certainly unsettles them, though it also unites their people in the face of these US-backed threats as the New Cold War continues to intensify with no end in sight.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 11/21/2025 – 02:00

China Prepares New Property Stimulus Package As Housing Crisis Enters Year Six

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China Prepares New Property Stimulus Package As Housing Crisis Enters Year Six

The global stimmy train is about to leave the station. 

With Japan – which is now in recession – set to announce a massive (for its GDP) $150BN fiscal stimulus any second, it’s (increasingly belligerent) neighbor to the west is also about to make it rain.

China is considering new measures to turn around its zombified property market, about to enter its 6th year of contraction, as concerns mount that a further weakening of the sector will threaten to destabilize its financial system, Bloomberg reports 

Policymakers including the housing ministry are considering a slew of options, such as providing new homebuyers mortgage subsidies for the first time nationwide.  Other measures being floated include raising income tax rebates for mortgage borrowers and lowering home transaction costs. In the end, however, China will just do what every  economy does when it is scrambling to kickstart demand: it will hand out checks straight to its consumers. 

The plan to subsidize interest costs on new mortgages is intended to lure back homebuyers, who have been reluctant to enter a free-falling market. While they may give a short-term boost, the steps are “probably not bold enough” to fix the supply-demand imbalance in the property market, Eric Zhu of Bloomberg Economics wrote. “Cheaper mortgages may not help much if people don’t want to borrow.”

The Chinese stimulus plan has been under discussion since at least the third quarter, as the housing market’s slump in sales and prices deepened, said the people, adding that the timing and specific policies to be implemented are still uncertain.

“The relaxation of fiscal policy is in line with our previous expectations, and reducing taxes and fees will moderately boost home buying activities,” said Jeff Zhang, a property equity analyst at Morningstar Inc. “We believe that the confidence of homebuyers still needs further stabilizing property prices to recover.”

China has been trying to put a floor under its five-year real estate downturn, which has weighed on everything from household wealth to consumption and employment. While the housing sector, which not too long ago was the world’s single biggest asset class…

… picked up modestly after the government stepped up support about a year ago, the momentum quickly fizzled. Home sales have been falling since the second quarter and fixed-asset investment collapsed last month.

The dim outlook for the property market, coupled with households’ weakened ability to repay mortgages and other personal loans, means that banks’ asset quality could deteriorate next year, Fitch Ratings analysts warned last month. Chinese banks’ bad loans surged to a record 3.5 trillion yuan ($492 billion) at the end of September.

In a similar move, China in September started offering interest subsidies for consumer loans to boost household spending. Residents can receive a one percentage-point interest rate waiver with a ceiling of relief based on the loan size.

Calls for more forceful policy support for the residential real estate market have grown in recent months after earlier steps including lowering loan thresholds and easing restrictions on multiple purchases failed to stem the downturn.

Last year, China scrapped a nationwide mortgage rate floor for individual homebuyers, seeking to bring down borrowing costs. The central bank then let the local interest rate self-discipline system, a supervisory body it oversees, decide whether a rate floor is still needed in their jurisdictions.

The country’s three biggest cities — Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen — eased homebuying requirements, especially in suburban areas, last quarter. Yet both new and resale homes recorded their steepest price declines in October in at least a year. 

Meanwhile, Chinese consumers remain firmly in deleveraging mode, hindered by soft income expectations and growing uncertainties in a slowing economy. Outstanding residential mortgages shrank in the second and third quarter to 37.4 trillion yuan and are now down 3.9% from a peak in early 2023. 

And while China tries to come up with a fix, the October economic data showed widespread weakness, especially in property and investment. Most major indicators grew less than 5% year-on-year, and property new starts declined nearly 30% yoy. We think the government may be reserving policy support for Q1 next year, since this year’s growth target appears broadly achievable. 

Property market troubles continue: House prices and property activity fell faster in October. While the direct impact of property investment on GDP is lessening, indirect effects—such as lower confidence, weaker local government 

Tyler Durden
Thu, 11/20/2025 – 23:51

America’s Real Crisis: The Collapse Of The Citizen

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America’s Real Crisis: The Collapse Of The Citizen

Authored by Kay Rubacek via The Epoch Times,

Across the free world, people are exhausted, institutions appear unresponsive, and leaders feel distant. Politics remains an endless quarrel. In this climate, a new idea is taking hold, that perhaps the machines can do better.

Billionaire technologist and former Google CEO Eric Schmidt has publicly cautioned against this temptation while acknowledging why it is on the rise. When democracies fail to deliver, he notes, people naturally look for something—anything—that promises competence.

Surveys from 2025 even show that many citizens now trust artificial intelligence (AI) systems to make decisions on their behalf more than their elected representatives. It’s a striking shift, but it reveals something more troubling than the technology itself.

The real crisis facing America and the West is not technological; it is moral. Democracies do not weaken because their tools become outdated; they weaken when the people who sustain them lose confidence, clarity, and inner direction.

Even if we built the most advanced AI-driven civic platforms—and even if we used algorithms to scale up deliberation or streamline participation—we would still fail unless we first addressed the deeper problem: a free government cannot survive a morally disoriented public. No algorithm, no matter how sophisticated, can supply virtue where none exists.

Yet the idea of “algocracy” (government by algorithm) continues to seduce a society increasingly overwhelmed by disorder. Algorithms promise what human institutions struggle to offer: speed, consistency, neutrality, freedom from corruption, and relief from the churn of political conflict.

In an era of distrust and institutional decay, those promises feel like rescue. But they are built on a misunderstanding of both human nature and machine logic. An algorithm can optimize efficiency, but efficiency is not wisdom. Optimization is not judgment. And judgment—moral, historical, human judgment—is the core function of democratic life.

When citizens lose their sense of agency or become exhausted by polarization, they begin to look for something outside themselves that can restore order. In previous eras, that “something” was a strongman. Today, it is a statistical system. The impulse is the same: to outsource responsibility to a seemingly neutral power.

But once people get accustomed to the idea that “the algorithm knows best,” they slowly lose the habits that make self-governance possible. The muscle of civic responsibility weakens, the instinct to weigh competing truths dulls, and the capacity for moral discernment erodes. A society that surrenders judgment cannot sustain democracy, no matter how refined its tools become.

The Founding Fathers, though they lived centuries before machine learning, understood this dynamic better than any of today’s technocrats. John Adams’s observation that the Constitution was made for a moral and religious people was never a theological demand; it was a sociological fact. A free republic requires citizens who can restrain themselves, tolerate disagreement, act with integrity, and recognize right from wrong. Without that, laws become hollow and institutions brittle.

George Washington warned in his Farewell Address that liberty cannot last without shared moral principles. He feared the loss of a common ethic long before he feared foreign empires.

Their foresight came from a sober understanding of human nature, not an idealistic faith in it. They knew that a population lacking virtue would either spiral into chaos or beg for a ruler to save them from themselves. Today’s twist of fate is that the “ruler” many are turning toward isn’t even human.

This points to the central flaw in the hope that AI can help build a “better democracy.” AI does not fix a society; it reflects it. And whatever it reflects, it magnifies. If a culture is confused about justice, its AI systems will deepen that confusion. If people are divided about truth, their models will intensify the division. If citizens avoid their responsibilities, AI will gladly step in. Tools inherit the morality of the hands that wield them, and if the people guiding those choices lack moral clarity, the machine will simply scale their disorientation.

This is why the drift toward algocracy is so dangerous. The real threat is not that AI systems will dominate us but that we may no longer produce citizens capable of resisting domination. A morally confused society can be controlled by almost anything, including a technological black-box that no one fully understands.

This doesn’t mean AI has no role in democratic life, but there is a line it cannot cross. AI cannot determine the value of a human being, define justice, or cultivate moral citizens. It cannot replace the wisdom encoded in history. It cannot supply the inner discipline that enables a free people to remain free. The health of a democracy cannot depend on the elegance of its code or the capacity of its machines. It must depend upon the character of its citizens.

The path forward will not be found in a new algorithm. It begins where this enduring republic began: with the formation of the citizen. A society must restore historical orientation as guidance, not nostalgia. It must rebuild moral clarity through shared human values and virtues such as courage, honesty, duty, and dignity. It must reanchor its institutions around human principles that transcend political fashion, such as transparency, fairness, limits on power, and equal treatment under the law. And it must treat AI as a tool for strengthening the civic participation of human beings, and never as a substitute for civic responsibility.

At the center of all of this stands the human person. Any political system—algorithmic or not—that weakens the dignity of the individual can never sustain freedom.

Democracy can survive new technologies. It has already survived industrial revolutions, global wars, economic upheavals, and dramatic shifts in the information ecosystem, but it cannot survive the collapse of the citizen. If we want democracy to endure, the solution is not to outsource judgment but to reclaim it. The machine can assist deliberation, but only the people can determine what is good. The machine can scale decisions, but only the people can form judgment. The machine can organize data, but only the people can cultivate virtue.

The question of our time is not whether AI will govern us. The question is whether we will remember how to govern ourselves.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 11/20/2025 – 23:25

Marc Andreessen: How America Can Beat China At “The Biggest Industry Ever Built”

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Marc Andreessen: How America Can Beat China At “The Biggest Industry Ever Built”

Billionaire venture capitalist Marc Andreessen has grown impatient with what he regards as a dangerously misguided national conversation about manufacturing in the United States, one that continues to fixate on bringing back the factories and jobs that disappeared four decades ago, when the far more consequential opportunity lies in dominating the complex, capital-intensive, software-defined hardware industries that will shape the rest of the century. 

You’re just not going to get the old factories back and you’re not getting the old jobs back in the way that they were 40 years ago when they were lost,” Andreessen declared in a recent, characteristically unfiltered podcast. “The things that are getting manufactured in the future decades are much more complex and sophisticated and technologically infused and powered than the things that used to get manufactured.”

Far from conceding defeat to China, Andreessen believes the U.S. remains uniquely positioned to win what he sees as the defining economic contest of our time, provided it stops wasting political and intellectual energy trying to recreate a world of steel-framed bicycles assembled by workers turning the same bolt ten thousand times a day and instead races to build the electric, sensor-laden, self-balancing mobility devices, the autonomous delivery drones, the advanced electric vehicles, and—most important—the humanoid robots that will constitute the largest industrial markets ever created.

You’re probably not going to get the bicycle manufacturing plant back that’s going to build bicycles the way they existed 40 years ago, where the plant’s going to work the same way it did 40 years ago, and where the jobs are going to be the same as they were 40 years ago,” Andreessen said. “What you actually want is you want to be making electric bikes, which are much more sophisticated physical artifacts that involve batteries and computers and chips.”

The factories required for these new products, as Andreessen pointed out, bear no resemblance to the labor-intensive assembly lines that still dominate much of China’s export machine, where hundreds or thousands of workers stand shoulder-to-shoulder performing the soul-crushing identical motion for ten or twelve hours in a single stretch. 

“If you go into a manufacturing plant in China assembling phones or building bicycles, you are going to see a lot of people standing at an assembly line doing the same thing over and over again for 10 hours,” the venture capitalist said. “But if you visit a Tesla factory today you see this in action, [which is] a large number of jobs that are kind of, call them blue-collar-plus jobs and then also white-collar jobs and all the associated service jobs around those higher-paying jobs, higher-skilled jobs that are frankly a lot more pleasant, that are a lot more interesting.”

If you ask Andreessen, what prevents the U.S. from scaling dozens or hundreds of furutistic facilities is not a lack of capital or talent, but a host of overbearing regulatory obstacles and chronically high energy costs that make it faster and cheaper to build in Guangdong than in Georgia.

“If you pair that futuristic outlook with the regulatory reforms and you solve all the issues around energy prices and natural resources and everything else that need to be solved,” he said, “I think that’s the formula.”

Andreessen warned that continued inaction means far more than another decade of importing consumer electronics; it means the permanent loss of the industries that will restructure global wealth and power.

If we don’t do that, all of those things are going to get made in China. Not just phones and not just drones but also cars and also robots,” Andreessen explained.  “The great industry of the future is going to be robots, AI in mechanical form, which is going to be, I think, the biggest industry that’s ever been built. And right now, by default, China’s set up to do that.”

Yet, an American victory on a scale that would dwarf the postwar industrial boom, remains entirely within reach provided the country chooses ambition over nostalgia.

“What an amazing story it would be for America in the 21st century, that we re-industrialize not to build the products of the past, but to build the products of the future,” Andreessen concluded. 

Tyler Durden
Thu, 11/20/2025 – 23:00