Russia Claims It Thwarted British & Ukrainian Plot To Steal Hypersonic Missile-Equipped Jet
In an entirely bizarre – though perhaps not completely without precedent – allegation from the Russian government, Ukrainian and British intelligence attempted to steal a MiG-31 fighter jet equipped with a Kinzhal hypersonic missile.
Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) announced that it had thwarted the alleged plot in which the foreign spies allegedly offered Russian pilots $3 million if they would perform the heist.
The RIA news agency quoted the FSB as saying the stolen aircraft was intended to be flown toward a NATO base in the Romanian city of Constanta.
“The measures taken have thwarted the Ukrainian and British intelligence services’ plans for a large-scale provocation,” RIA quoted the FSB as saying.
But this is where the high-risk caper and narrative gets even stranger. The FSB isn’t alleging that Ukraine was simply trying to steal the Russian hypersonic missile or aircraft in order to use it, but that the whole objective was to see the MiG-31 get shot down while inbound over NATO-member Romania’s airspace
“In order to hijack the aircraft, Ukrainian military intelligence officers tried to recruit Russian pilots, offering $3 million,” the FSB statement reads. “The special services then planned to send the jet with the Kinzhal missile to the area where NATO’s largest airbase in southeastern Europe is located, in the Romanian city of Constanta, where it could be shot down by air defenses,” it emphasized.
Apparently Russian intelligence is saying all of this was ultimately aimed at creative a huge false-flag operation, or major provocation, in order to drastically escalate NATO tensions with Moscow, which would see the West intervene more directly on Kiev’s behalf.
Russia’s RT has offered a precedent for Ukrainian intelligence seeking to lure Russian pilots to its side, writing the following:
Kiev has previously offered money and assistance to defectors. In 2023, Russian Mi-8 pilot Maksim Kuzminov defected to Ukraine, landing his helicopter behind the front lines with the HUR’s help. Two of the other crew members, unaware of his plan, were killed upon landing. Kuzminov was assassinated a year later in Spain, where he was living under a new identity and with a Ukrainian passport.
In 2022, the FSB accused former Bellingcat investigator Christo Grozev, a Bulgarian-born journalist, of taking part in a failed Ukrainian attempt to recruit Russian military pilots. Grozev said he was embedded with Ukrainian intelligence officers as a documentary filmmaker and claimed that his text messages were forged.
NATO operations in Constanta currently serve as a significant hub for the military alliance’s operations in Eastern Europe, with at least 5,000 multi-national troops stationed there. These numbers are expected to grow as the NATO base there is undergoing expansion.
As for the fresh FSB claims of the attempted jet and hypersonic missile theft, Ukraine and the UK will no doubt express outrage and denial, but it does serve to illustrate the level of suspicion and ‘shadow wars’ currently raging in the background related to the Ukraine conflict.
Futures Slide As AI Jitters Return After SoftBank Liquidates Nvidia Stake
US futures are weaker following the best day for the S&P500 in almost a month and the Nasdaq’s best day since late May. The market frontran the catalyst: late on Monday the Senate passed its funding bill, and the House is expected to vote on Weds, as it always eventually does, especially since it has Trump’s full support. The government reopening will give us September data over the next few weeks, but Oct data may skipped as the government moves on to November. As of 8:00am S&P futures were down 0.2%, while Nasdaq futures slide 0.5%, with Mag7/Semis/AI themes all are under pressure as NVDA (-1.5%) saw major shareholder SoftBank exit its entire stake to play other AI themes and CRWV (-8.9%) cut is forecast which it blamed on AI supply chain bottlenecks that triggered customer fulfilment delays. USD is flat as the bond market is closed for Veterans Day. Commodities are higher led by Energy and Metals. Today’s macro data focus is on NFIB Small Business Survey, ADP’s new weekly job report, and AMD’s analyst day.
In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are all lower as Nvidia falls 1.6% after SoftBank Group sold its stake in the chip giant (Apple 0.0%, Microsoft -0.3%, Amazon -0.1%, Alphabet -0.5%, Meta Platforms -1.2%, Tesla -0.7%)
BigBear.ai (BBAI) jumps 18% after the software firm reported revenue for the third quarter that beat Wall Street estimates.
CoreWeave (CRWV) is down 10% after the cloud-computing provider reported its third-quarter results and said a data-center delay would impact fourth-quarter expectations.
Gemini Space Station (GEMI) shares fall 7% as the crypto exchange founded by Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss reported a steeper loss than analysts anticipated in its first earnings release since going public.
Paramount Skydance (PSKY) is up 4% after the recently merged media company raised its target for job cuts and cost-saving measures.
RealReal (REAL) rises 15% after the online marketplace for luxury goods boosted its revenue guidance for the full year to beat the average analyst estimate.
Rigetti Computing (RGTI) falls 3% after the quantum-computing firm reported revenue for the third quarter that missed the average analyst estimate.
Rocket Lab (RKLB) gains 9% after the space-transportation company reported revenue for the third quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.
Surmodics (SRDX) rises 48% after saying a federal court rejected a request by the FTC and some state regulators for a preliminary injunction blocking the company’s acquisition by GTCR.
In other corporate news, First Brands’ new CEO testified that within weeks of arriving, he uncovered evidence of massive financial fraud at the auto-parts company. Intel’s Chief Technology and AI Officer has left the company to take a role at OpenAI, where he’ll work on the startup’s infrastructure efforts. Paramount Skydance raised its post-merger savings target to $3 billion and will invest $1.5 billion in additional 2026 spend for Paramount+ streaming services and other initiatives.
The record-setting 41-day shutdown may end as soon as Wednesday, when the House is expected to vote on a funding measure passed by the Senate. For context, the S&P 500 has posted an average 2.3% gain in the month following the resolution of prior shutdowns, according to data crunched by CFRA’s chief market strategist Sam Stovall. JPMorgan’s Market Intelligence team repeats verbatim what we said two weeks ago, and reckons that a reopening of the government could release more liquidity into the market, supporting stocks. The recent rebound has seen bullish option activity pick up while spikes in volatility and hedging cost gauges have been modest.
“The valuations don’t look crazy but they do if there’s nervousness on the growth story,” Helen Jewell, chief investment officer of EMEA fundamental equities at BlackRock Inc., told Bloomberg TV. “That’s why I think the AI story, of which we do remain bullish, we do think while there is a lot further to go, it is likely to be a volatile ride.”
Additionally, Goldman yesterday noted that corporate buybacks are also providing a tailwind to equities now that the earnings season is over. US companies had authorized over $1.2 trillion of buybacks this year through October, an increase of 15% from last year, according to Goldman Sachs research — and November is typically one of the strongest months for buybacks.
Traders have other reasons to feel more optimistic than last week, with the government shutdown looking close to being resolved, corporate buybacks ramping up and positive technicals. Another reason to be bullish is the latest short squeeze: derivatives strategists at Barclays say put open interest increased dramatically last week, causing the put-to-call open interest ratio to spike to near the highest level in two years. This likely reflects increased demand for downside protection, and any time the market jerks higher, all those downside hedges get monetized pushing risk even higher, and/or starting a short squeeze.
Why today’s mega ramp in tech? Simple: last week we saw the biggest short pile up since April pic.twitter.com/GexTmPM4PR
Still, doubts over the AI narrative are a fly in the ointment. CoreWeave sank about 9% in premarket trading after the company slashed its revenue forecast. The setback at CoreWeave, which rents out access to powerful artificial intelligence chips, gives investors another reason to worry about the strength of the tech industry at a time when there’s widespread anxiety over valuations.
Another glitch in the positive mood is news that Softbank sold its entire stake in Nvidia, pocketing $5.8 billion, to help bankroll envisioned AI investments. Softbank said the sale had nothing to do with Nvidia itself but was a necessary financing measure, while CFO Yoshimitsu Goto said that he “can’t say if we’re in an AI bubble or not.” Nvidia shares are slipping in premarket trading.
With earnings season now mostly over, out of the 457 S&P 500 companies that have reported so far in the earnings season, 81% have managed to beat analyst forecasts, while 15% have missed.
European stocks gained for a second day with the Stoxx 600 rising 0.67% as sentiment was boosted by signs that the US government shutdown is nearing an end. UK stocks got a boost after the unemployment rate came in stronger than expected, sending the FTSE 100 up 0.8% and outperforming its regional counterparts. Vodafone shares rise as the telecommunications operator reported upbeat earnings. Consumer products and healthcare shares outperform, while insurance shares lag, with Munich Re a drag after cutting its insurance revenue guidance for the full year. to 576.65 with 152 members down, 430 up, and 18 unchanged. Here are some of the biggest movers on Tuesday:
Vodafone shares rise as much as 7% after reporting positive organic service revenue growth in Germany after five consecutive quarters of decline.
Adyen shares rise as much as 4.6% as the payments company set long-term guidance for about 20% net sales growth in years after 2026.
Mandatum gains as much as 7.5% to hit a fresh record high, after third-quarter earnings beat estimates.
Premier Group advances as much as 7.9%, to its highest intraday level on record, after the company reported first-half 2026 revenue that increased about 6% from the previous comparable period.
Munich Re shares decline as much as 3.3%, among the worst performers on the Stoxx 600 Insurance Index, after the German reinsurer cut its insurance revenue guidance for the full year.
Inwit drops as much as 11%, the most since April 2020, after the tower operator said intense competition and limited cash generation are likely to continue impacting the Italian telecommunications market in the short term.
Hensoldt shares fall as much as 9.3% as analysts find the German defense firm’s guidance for next year and for 2030 disappointing and say the company’s valuation is demanding.
EDP shares fall as much as 5% after the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board sold its stake in the Portugese energy company.
SKF shares drop as much as 7.7%, pulling back from a record high, after the world’s biggest maker of ball bearings outlined new financial targets that analysts at Jefferies described as “underwhelming.
Lundbeck declines as much as 8.4% after Jefferies downgraded the Danish pharmaceutical firm to underperform from hold to account for its “upcoming patent cliff.”
Hilton Food shares fall as much as 25%, hitting their lowest level in a decade, after the group cut its full-year guidance and warned profit progression in the next financial year may be “difficult.”
Earlier in the session, Asian equities fluctuated, as investors weighed progress from ending the US government shutdown against lingering risks including stretched tech valuations and the prospect of renewed trade frictions. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gave up early gains of as much as 0.5% to trade little changed. Korean chip stocks, including Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, were among the biggest contributors to the gauge’s advance. TSMC fell after posting its slowest monthly revenue growth in over a year, stoking concerns that the AI-driven stock rally has outpaced fundamentals. Sentiment weakened after the Wall Street Journal reported that China will fast-track rare earth export approvals for most firms but exclude those linked to the US military. In China, shares traded in narrow band, with the onshore benchmark dropping 0.9% amid concerns around the rare earth export controls. While the US will start to receive rare earths, the additional mechanisms to restrict access by the US military “may increase the risk of derailing the current ‘trade truce’ between the two countries,” said Vey-Sern Ling, senior equity adviser for Asia technology at Union Bancaire Privee.
In Fx, the dollar slumped after ADP showed a 11K drop in jobs in the past week, while the pound is down 0.3% and is the weakest of the G-10 currencies.
In rates, Treasury futures slightly lower across the long-end of the strip. There is no cash trading in Treasuries due to Veterans Day holiday. Small weakness seen in the long-end implies some bear steepening pressure on the curve, with long-bond and ultra-long bond futures lower by 6 to 7 ticks on the day. UK government bonds have rallied after the unemployment rate rose more than expected and separate tax-based data showed the number of employees on payroll fell more than forecast. Short-end gilts lead the advance, with UK 2-year yields falling 7 bps to 3.74% as traders boosted bets on an interest-rate cut by the Bank of England next month. Treasury auctions resume Wednesday with $42 billion 10-year note sale. IG dollar issuance slate empty, but expected to pick up again Wednesday. Verizon’s $11bn five-part deal headlined a nine-deal $19.25bn US investment-grade primary docket Monday. Issuers paid about 6bps in new issue concessions on deals that were 4.6 times covered,Treasury auctions resume Wednesday with $42 billion 10-year notes, followed by $25 billion 30-year bonds Thursday. Monday’s 3-year note auction achieved solid results
In commodities, spot gold rises $23 to around $4,139/oz. WTI crude futures rise 0.4% to near $60.40 a barrel. Bitcoin falls 0.5%.
The US economic calendar empty for the session. Fed speaker slate includes Barr on AI and innovation at 10:25pm
Market Snapshot
S&P 500 mini -0.2%
Nasdaq 100 mini -0.3%
Russell 2000 mini -0.2%
Stoxx Europe 600 +0.6%
DAX +0.1%
CAC 40 +0.7%
10-year Treasury yield unchanged at 4.12%
VIX +0.4 points at 17.95
Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1219.53
euro +0.1% at $1.1572
WTI crude +0.3% at $60.3/barrel
Top Overnight News
The Senate passed legislation on Monday night (vote was 60-40) to end the nation’s longest government shutdown, after a critical splinter group of Democrats joined with Republicans and backed a spending package that omitted the chief concession their party had spent weeks demanding. The measure goes next to the House, which is expected to take it up no sooner than Wednesday. NYT
SoftBank has sold its entire stake in Nvidia for $5.8 billion, as the global tech investor shakes its pockets for cash to plow into its massive bet on OpenAI: WSJ
Obamacare subsidies face an uncertain future as Democrats scramble to find Republican support for an extension before they expire at the end of 2025. BBG
China plans to ease the flow of rare earths and other restricted materials to the U.S. by designing a system that will exclude companies with ties to the U.S. military while fast-tracking export approvals for other firms. WSJ
India’s top refiners haven’t placed any orders for Russian oil for next month, people familiar said, signaling that Western sanctions and trade talks with the US are having a major impact on buying patterns. BBG
Trump said the US is getting “pretty close” to a trade deal with India. BBG
The U.K.’s jobs market continued to creak in the third quarter, making it more likely that the Bank of England will cut borrowing costs in December after it narrowly chose to keep rates on hold last week. UK saw a 20bp M/M uptick in the unemployment rate to 5% (vs. 4.8% in Aug and ahead of the Street’s 4.9% forecast) while wage growth cooled. WSJ
US flight cuts are set to increase even as Congress works to end the shutdown. The FAA has ordered airlines to scale back national operations by 6% today, a number to rise to 10% from Friday. BBG
AI data centers draw political scrutiny as some accuse the infrastructure building boom of driving up electricity prices. WSJ
CoreWeave shares fell premarket (CRWV -10% premkt) after the company cut its forecast due to a data center delay. BBG
Trade/Tariffs
China is reportedly devising a plan to keep the US military from getting its rare earth magnets and is considering a ‘validated end-user’ system to fast-track certain export licenses, according to WSJ.
China’s Foreign Minister Wang held a phone call with Canada’s Foreign Minister on Tuesday and said China is willing to strengthen communication with Canada and willing to accelerate the resumption of exchanges and cooperation in various fields, while he added that diplomatic, commercial and other departments of their countries can properly resolve concerns.
Switzerland is close to sealing a 15% tariff deal with the US and could be completed as early as Thursday or Friday, via Reuters citing sources. Deal is not certain until US President Trump has given his approval.
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks were mostly subdued with the region failing to sustain the positive global risk momentum that had been spurred by US-China trade optimism and US government reopening hopes, while there were few fresh catalysts overnight to fuel the recent rally. ASX 200 faded its early advances as the outperformance in gold stocks and miners was negated by weakness in tech and the top-weighted financial sector following CBA’s modest earnings growth, while the improvement in Consumer Sentiment to a 7-year high did little to spur risk appetite. Nikkei 225 initially rallied amid currency weakness and as participants digested earnings results, but eventually wiped out all of its gains as sentiment soured. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were pressured amid losses in tech, including Chinese e-commerce giants Alibaba and JD.com, which failed to benefit, despite it being China’s Singles’ Day, which is the world’s largest shopping event, as sales had begun weeks earlier in an effort to boost sluggish spending.
Top Asian News
Japanese Economy Minister Kiuchi said they are aware that high inflation is weighing on private consumption, and that a weak yen pushes up prices through higher import costs. Kiuchi added they will expand and implement measures to cushion the impacts of higher prices, as well as continue to aim for wage growth exceeding inflation.
China State Planner Official says private investment has slowed down this year. Adds that there’s challenges in private investment. Energy official says it will increase policy supply for attracting private investment in energy. There’s plan to support Private Investment to flow to high value service sectors. Aims to encourage private firms to enter the tech sector. Some of the new policy-based financial tool allowed to support private investment in key areas.
PBoC issues its Q3 monetary policy implementation report:. Policy: To implement appropriately loose monetary policy and strengthen transmission of policy. To keep liquidity ample. To maintain FX flexibility and prevent overshooting risks. Will maintain reasonable relative relationships among various types of interest rates. Global Situation: External situation unstable and uncertain Economy: Economy faces may risks and challenges. To increase efforts to support consumption and tech innovation. To stabilise growth, jobs, and market expectations. Foundation for economic recovery needs to be enhanced. To maintain reasonable growth in total amount of finance. Need to consolidate economic recovery. Inflation: To maintain prices at reasonable level Banks: To reduce cost of bank’s liability. To fend off financial systemic risks.
European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.6%) opened stronger across the board and have held towards best levels throughout the European morning. The FTSE 100 outperforms today, following a weaker-than-expected jobs report, which has pressured the GBP and slightly increased odds of a December rate cut at the BoE. European sectors hold a positive bias, with notable strength in Consumer Products & Services, Health Care, and Construction. Gains in Consumer Products & Services are led by LVMH (+1.7%), after reports the company plans to open several flagship stores across China in December, amidst early indications of a regional recovery.
Top European News
European Commission has begun setting up a new intelligence body under President Ursula von der Leyen, in an attempt to improve the use of information gathered by national spy agencies, according to FT.
ECB’s Elderson says “current [rate] level is appropriate, but we will continue to be data-dependent and will decide one meeting at a time”. “Our monetary policy is in a good place. It’s true that the economic environment remains uncertain, so we cannot commit to a pre-determined interest rate path”. Elderson cites risks of higher inflation from supply fragmentation and defence spending. “Among the risks of lower inflation, I would include the appreciation of the euro, which could reduce demand for euro area exports; and a re-routing to the euro area of products previously shipped to the United States”. “We do, of course, monitor the euro’s exchange rate against other currencies because it could affect inflation”. Elderson says policy should not undermine banking mergers. Elderson argues mergers must be judged on technical and prudential criteria.
ECB’s Vujcic says the risks are balanced around inflation and that recent growth and inflation are higher than forecast. Economically in a good place. Frontloading of tariffs is still unwinding. Consumers are still very cautious in Europe. Market valuations are stretched. A bit concerned that retail participation in stock markets are growing faster than hedge funds.
BoE’s Greene says risk management around inflation needs to influence policy views. Policy: Policy needs to be more restrictive than otherwise. Not convinced that policy is meaningfully restrictive. Labour Market: Latest unemployment report is not great. Problems with the labour force survey make it hard to know what is happening. Inflation: Household inflation expectations are at the very top of expectations. Worried about inflation persistence. Wages: The weaker wage data is good news. Wage settlements data for next year from surveys is higher than we would like to see. Latest data suggests that the disinflationary process is on track. Wages are still “way too high” given weak growth. Says the market pricing of 3.25-3.50% for the neutral rate is reasonable.
FX
The DXY holds steady through the European session, mirroring the subdued tone from APAC trade, after a mild softening earlier in the week. Market reaction was muted to the Senate’s approval of the government funding bill—largely in line with expectations—with attention now turning to the House, where Speaker Johnson aims for a Wednesday vote on the stopgap measure. The DXY trades within a tight 99.60–99.74 band, comfortably inside Monday’s 99.46–99.74 range, with resistance seen at the November 7th high of 99.87. No move seen on lower-than-prior US NFIB; inner report suggested “many firms are still navigating a labor shortage and want to hire but are having difficulty doing so”.
EUR/USD remains directionless, confined to a narrow range amid a lack of fresh drivers from the Eurozone and with no move seen to the ZEW survey or to ECB commentary. Germany’s ZEW survey disappointed, with commentary noting that while government investment plans may offer short-term support, “structural problems continue to exist”. ECB commentary offered little new insight: Vujčić said inflation risks are now broadly balanced, while Elderson reiterated that the current rate level is “appropriate,” stressing continued data dependence and a meeting-by-meeting approach. The pair trades comfortably within Monday’s 1.1541–1.1583 range
GBP/USD slipped lower in early trade after a lacklustre overnight session, weighed by weaker-than-expected UK labour data. Employment contracted, the jobless rate ticked higher than expectations, while earnings ex-bonus matched forecasts. The release prompted a swift GBP/USD drop from 1.3153 to 1.3121, while EUR/GBP climbed from 0.8781 to 0.8804 within eight minutes. BoE rate expectations turned slightly more dovish, with a full 25bps cut now fully priced for February (vs. 98.8% pre-data). Post-data, BoE’s Greene noted the unemployment report was “not great” and cautioned that survey issues cloud the labour market picture. She added that policy “needs to be more restrictive than otherwise,” but remains unconvinced that current settings are “meaningfully restrictive”. GBP/USD trades near the lower end of a 1.3116–1.3178 band
USD/JPY ticked higher overnight, briefly reclaiming the 154.00 handle before paring gains as broader risk sentiment softened. The session has offered little in the way of fresh domestic catalysts, with price action largely dictated by cautious risk tone and subdued cross-asset moves. The pair continues to consolidate within a 154.03–154.49 range.
The Antipodeans drifted lower through the APAC session, giving back a portion of yesterday’s gains that were driven by improved risk sentiment. AUD/USD eased further from its 100DMA (0.6539) after encountering resistance at that level yesterday, with the pair trading within a 0.6515–0.6537 band.
Fixed Income
US Treasury futures are essentially flat, after being pressured overnight; price action today is exceptionally thin, with volumes light as the US observes Veterans’ Day, where cash bond trading will be shut. Currently in a narrow 112-20 to 112-22+ range, with catalysts seemingly light for the remainder of the day, aside from the US NFIB Business Optimism Index and Weekly Prelim Estimate ADP. On the trade front, some progress between US-India with the POTUS suggesting they “are getting close”. Elsewhere, Bloomberg reported that Switzerland is near a deal to cut the US tariff on its exports to 15% from 39%, with an agreement possible within two weeks.
Bunds are incrementally lower/flat and trade in a 129.97-129.11 range. Specifics are incredibly light heading into the ZEW survey, aside from a few ECB speakers’ comments, which ultimately lacked surprises. To recap, Elderson said current rates are appropriate and will continue to take a data-dependent approach. Elsewhere, Vujcic said risks are balanced around inflation and that recent growth and inflation are higher than forecast. Price action today has been lacklustre. Initially bid on the release of the UK jobs report (discussed below), before being capped at and trading sideways for the remainder of the morning, awaiting ZEW data. That failed to budge Bunds – German ZEW Current/Economic Conditions were both weaker than expected.
Gilts are the clear outperformers today, boosted following a poor regional jobs report, which has raised the odds of a December rate cut (-18bps vs -15.5bps pre-release). UK paper is currently trading in a 93.53 to 93.69 range, and with price action fairly lacklustre since the open. To recap the latest data, the figures were very poor; Employment Chance contracted by 22k (exp. 0k), whilst the unemployment rate ticked a little higher to 5% – interestingly, the 3M Avg. Earnings printed at 4.8% (exp. 5%). Overall, metrics are conducive to a cut in December, but the focus ultimately remains firmly on inflation developments, highlighted by Governor Bailey at the most recent confab. Following the report, Greene suggested that the “latest unemployment report is not great”, but described the wage data as “good news”. She also highlighted that policy needs to be more restrictive than otherwise, citing worries re. inflation persistence.
Commodities
Crude benchmarks traded choppy throughout the APAC session but saw some strength as the European session got underway, as the risk sentiment remains high and attacks on Russian refineries continue. Just as reports that Ukraine’s military hit Russia’s Saratov oil refinery, crude benchmarks surged c. USD 0.60/bbl higher and are currently trading near session highs at USD 60.43/bbl and USD 64.43/bbl.
Spot XAU has continued to bid higher as the European session got underway as participants hope for further Fed easing. XAU followed on from Monday’s trend day to a peak of USD 4149/oz during the APAC session before pulling back to a low of USD 4125/oz. As the session switched over, European traders haven’t yet managed to extend the day’s parameters but are currently trading near session highs at USD 4144/oz.
Base metals remain rangebound amid a lack of market catalysts. 3M LME Copper gapped higher to open at USD 10.84k/t before oscillating in a tight USD 10.8k-10.86k/t band as the European session continued.
Five big Indian refiners haven’t placed any orders for Russia oil for December, according to Bloomberg citing sources.
UBS expects global gold demand this year and next to reach its strongest level since 2011.
US President Trump posted “It was an Honor to spend time with Ahmed Hussein al-Sharaa, the new President of Syria, where we discussed all the intricacies of PEACE in the Middle East, of which he is a major advocate. I look forward to meeting and speaking again. Everyone is talking about the Great Miracle that is taking place in the Middle East. Having a stable and successful Syria is very important to all countries in the Region.”
Turkish Foreign Minister said they discussed Syria and Gaza in talks with US and Syrian counterparts, US VP Vance, Trump aide Witkoff, and special envoy Barrack. He added that US officials understand that Syria needs to be united, and that problems in south and north Syria risk dividing the country.
US is reportedly planning to build a large military base in Israel’s Gaza border region, according to Israeli press citing Israeli sources; the facility would be used by international forces operating in Gaza to help maintain the ceasefire. Facility could accommodate several thousand soldiers. They estimated the project’s budget at roughly USD 500mln.
Geopolitics: Russia-Ukraine
Ukrainian drone attack damaged civilian infrastructure in Russia’s Saratov, according to the regional governor.
Russian security services reportedly foiled a joint Ukrainian-British operation to hijack a Russian MiG-31 equipped with a hypersonic missile, according to RIA.
Geopolitics: Other
Thai Defence Minister announced the halting of ceasefire implementation steps and return of Cambodian prisoner of war, while he said they will explain to Malaysia and the US regarding the Thai decision on the ceasefire.
Dollar Dumps As ADP Report Shows Big Job Losses In October, Small Biz Optimism Hits 6 Month Lows
Recent announcements of large layoffs at a few prominent companies have raised concerns that the labor market could be weakening further, and today’s new weekly ADP employment report confirms that fear.
The ADP weekly jobless report pointed to a deterioration in US labor momentum, stating that “for the four weeks ending Oct. 25, 2025, private employers shed an average of 11,250 jobs a week, suggesting that the labor market struggled to produce jobs consistently during the second half of the month.”
Added together that is 45,000 job losses in the month (not including government workers), which would be the largest monthly drop in jobs since March 2023…
ADP started issuing more-frequent readouts on the labor market last month, to complement its long-running monthly report.
They are published with a two-week time lag and are based on a four-week moving average.
A sustained increase in layoffs would be particularly concerning now because the hiring rate is low and it is harder than usual for unemployed workers to find jobs.
So far, Goldman does not find clear evidence that most of the increase in these layoff measures is directly motivated by AI, although tech industries saw meaningful increases in layoffs in October across both measures.
At the same time, initial jobless claims – which are less noisy and more representative but could lag layoff announcements and WARN notices – remain low.
Goldman complements these data with a new tool to track layoff discussions among publicly listed companies based on earnings call transcripts.
Their tool suggests that layoff-focused discussions have increased recently, particularly in the ongoing 2025Q3 earnings calls. We find that layoff discussions increase after companies discuss AI in earnings calls at least a few times, although this pattern has only recently started to emerge for non-tech companies.
We combine Challenger announcements, WARN notices, initial claims, and earnings call mentions into a layoff tracker.
Goldman’s tracker has increased in October and is now higher than before the pandemic.
Our quantile regressions based on the level of our layoff tracker, the level of our job growth tracker net of the breakeven pace of job growth, and changes in our slack tracker indicate that the risk of labor market deterioration has increased recently, with the probability of a 0.5pp or higher increase in the unemployment rate over the next six months at 20-25% (vs. 10% six months ago).
Finally, sentiment among US small businesses eased in October to a six-month low on a deterioration in earnings and less optimism about the economy.
The National Federation of Independent Business optimism index declined 0.6 point to 98.2, according to figures released Tuesday. Five of the 10 components that make up the gauge decreased while four improved.
The net share of owners reporting stronger earnings in the last three months fell 9 percentage points, the most since the pandemic and restrained by weaker sales and higher materials costs.
While labor quality continued to rank as the top problem for small businesses, owners were relatively sanguine about hiring challenges. Just 32% reported they were unable to fill job openings, matching the lowest since the end of 2020. The share reporting few or no qualified applicants for vacancies was one of the smallest in that time frame.
However, there was a small decrease in hiring plans in the next three months, marking the first decline since May.
Somewhat surprisingly, given those numbers, new data shows a collapse in immigrant work applications…
So, is the labor market’s difficulty a supply issue after all?
The result of all this is a rise in rate-cut odds and a drop in the dollar…
Cash bonds are closed for Veterans Day but futs signal a drop of about 4bps for the 10Y yield…
The lead up to a Turning Point USA event on Monday night at UC Berkeley was filled with violence and mayhem, as aggressive protesters banged against barriers, set off a smoke grenade, and screamed at attendees waiting in line as law enforcement worked to keep things from spiraling into uncontrolled chaos.
The event, featuring Christian apologist Frank Turek and conservative actor Rob Schneider, was able to take place despite the raucous Antifa-led protest, which included a fight that turned bloody.
“Aerial footage captured a violent confrontation in which a person dressed in dark clothing pummeled someone wearing a red T-shirt on the sidewalk outside the event. Dozens of people remained in line as tensions flared, creating what [was] described as a rowdy scene,” Fox News reported.
Savanah Hernandez, a TPUSA contributor, posted a series of videos on X depicting the chaos.
“UC Berkeley is currently a war zone and ANTIFA has tried to rush the barriers into tonight’s TPUSA event multiple times. The crowd is getting more and more rowdy,” she posted Monday evening.
UC Berkeley is currently a war zone and ANTIFA has tried to rush the barriers into tonight’s TPUSA event multiple times.
“Here are the two main agitators who continued to try to break down the event barriers tonight. One is covered in trans flag patches reading ‘fags against fascism’ and the other is an Asian protester who kept his face covered throughout the night,” she added.
UC BERKELEY- Here are the two main agitators who continued to try to break down the event barriers tonight.
One is covered in trans flag patches reading “fags against fascism” and the other is an Asian protester who kept his face covered throughout the night. @TPUSA |… pic.twitter.com/8kOy24rlfO
Hernandez also noted protesters tried to storm the barriers, posting videos showing cops seeking to push back aggressive demonstrators.
“Protesters are trying to break through the barriers set up outside of the TPUSA event at UC Berkeley. A smoke grenade was lit off by an ANTIFA protester resulting in TPUSA attendees being rushed inside. Police are struggle to contain the protest,” she posted on X.
BREAKING: Protesters are trying to break through the barriers set up outside of the TPUSA event at UC Berkeley
A smoke grenade was lit off by an ANTIFA protester resulting in TPUSA attendees being rushed inside
The event kicked off with TPUSA contributor Jobob Taeleifi, who congratulated the audience for making it into the auditorium.
“Despite all the craziness, despite all the liberal policies, we believe the Bay Area can be saved,” he said. “We need more spaces of courage — not more safe spaces — and all you showed great courage showing up here tonight.”
Schneider posted on X: “Thank YOU, Antifa for welcoming us tonight at UC Berkeley. We Look forward to our thoughtful, teargas free discussion and debate.”
During his speech, the actor decried UC Berkeley administrators, saying they set up stringent roadblocks that kept people from attending the event: “Shame on the assholes at this university for making it so difficult to get in … shame on you.”
According to a post by TPUSA, attendees were threatened by Antifa and called Nazis and fascists, and Charlie Kirk’s death was celebrated.
Protests began prior to the event, according to Fox News: “Prior to the protest, four students were arrested overnight for vandalism related to the event. Flyers opposing Turning Point USA’s visit were also posted around campus leading up to the tour stop.”
SoftBank Dumps Entire Nvidia Stake To Double-Down On ‘Core AI Enablers’
In another warning sign for the AI bubble, one we’ve been tracking closely, from the accelerating AI-linked debt binge and widening Oracle CDS spreads to repeated cautions from BofA’s Michael Hartnett and others – yet another red flag emerged Tuesday morning.
Masayoshi Son’s SoftBank Group cashed out its $5.83 billion stake in Nvidia in October and is now raising capital for new AI investments across data centers, robotics, and chip manufacturing. The sale underscores Son’s core strategy – buy low, sell high – while positioning SoftBank as a major funder across the global AI ecosystem.
CFO Yoshimitsu Goto told reporters earlier that the sale of its Nvidia stake was part of SoftBank’s cycle of “divesting and reinvesting,” describing it as the company’s “fate” to continually reallocate capital.
“Our investment in OpenAI is significant, so we plan to use some existing assets to help fund it,” Goto said. He declined to comment on whether the timing of the sale had any significance.
“I can’t say if we’re in an AI bubble or not,” Goto continued, adding that the sale is for “capital can be utilized for our financing.”
Despite our concerns about an AI bubble, outlined in four must-read reports here:
… SoftBank’s timing of the sale was very strategic: the Japanese conglomerate had exited Nvidia once before in 2019 but began rebuilding its position in 2020, about two years before the advent of ChatGPT sparked the AI investment boom.
Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Kirk Boodry noted that SoftBank is on track to report its highest annual profit since 2020. “The sale of $5.8 billion in Nvidia shares highlights the company’s access to liquidity as it continues its AI investment program.”
Increased liquidity access allows Son to pursue broader investment plans, including the “Stargate” data center network and a $1 trillion AI manufacturing hub in Arizona.
SoftBank has also lined up $20 billion in new loans backed by Arm Holdings and bridge loans to fund OpenAI and Ampere deals.
As a reminder, SoftBank bought a 2% stake in Intel for $2 billion to align with the Trump administration’s semiconductor expansion efforts. Goto reminded investors and reporters earlier that the current industry view is healthy enthusiasm and that greater risk lies in underinvesting.
Shares of SoftBank in Tokyo have tripled this year, peaking at 27,695 yen.
Goldman analyst Francois Theis reminded clients of SoftBank’s 11% stake in Sam Altman’s OpenAI, along with its publicly listed holdings and pipeline of upcoming listings.
Softbank has traded as an OpenAI proxy over the summer (similarly to how it traded pre BABA listing) with a discount to NAV sharply shrinking (-14% using the company’s assumption post close marking to market their Open AI stake at latest round of valuations at $500B vs the $260B they participated in at earlier this year – model available on request). Post its recapitalisation, Softbank via its SVF2 has now a 11% stake in OpenAI Group PBC ($34.7B investment). They have completed their first tranche and set to proceed with the second and large tranche ($22.5B in Dec. this year)
Impact on listed investments
Pipeline for listing (filed)
Besides selling Nvidia, SoftBank also sold $9.17 billion worth of T-Mobile shares between June and September. Its Vision Fund is also preparing to list more Asian portfolio companies.
On 5th November China issued $4 billion worth of US dollar (USD)-denominated bonds split across two equal tranches.
The orderbook was $161 billion at one point, but ended near $118 billion when final pricing was announced. The 3-year $2 billion tranche priced at US Treasury + 0bp (aka flat to UST) and the 5-year $2 billion tranche priced at US Treasury +2bp.
The following morning, bonds traded up significantly and were quoted more than 30bp inside UST (specifically: China 28s -33.5bp | China 30s -37.5bp).
This is unusual.
Looking at other high-credit quality sovereign issuers in US Dollar, South Korea 30s (AA-rated) trade at T+5bp, Abu Dhabi 30s (AA-rated) trade at T+10bp, or Qatar 30s (AA-rated) trade T+18bp. China is A+ rated so, on paper, its creditworthiness is assessed as weaker than South Korea or Qatar, and in this case AA-rated USA.
So, what’s so special about China?
“Has it become the new risk-free rate” asked one of my colleagues?
A natural tendency would be to think that China’s stability has become a new safe haven considering the year-to-date deterioration of the US institutions and creditworthiness.
The new US administration, the weaker US dollar, the threat to Fed independence, the ongoing government shut-down and the constant tariff noise may be an easy cocktail of answers as to why China trades inside the US.
However, the argument does not stand.
In November 2024, China issued $750 million of 5-year USD denominated bonds at T+3bp and they have been trading 30bp or more inside the Treasuries since then. Therefore, the perceived weakening US exceptionalism is hardly an explanation because mid-November last year very few investors would have anticipated the events that unfolded since the US Presidential election.
Source: Bloomberg (10 November 2025).
As often with bond trading, when the fundamental picture is failing to explain bond trends or moves, the technical picture may bring some colour.
Firstly, China has little external debt in USD so there is scarcity of bonds on offer.
In contrast, Chinese banks are flush with US dollar deposits, so there is demand for USD assets.
The alternatives to USD-denominated Chinese government bonds are not attractive because state-owned enterprise US dollar debt in China is rather expensive, and credit spreads in other IG names are close to their all-time tights.
Secondly, there’s a (complex) tax rebate system that some onshore bank clients benefit from on bond income.
The orderbook statistics showed that Asia accounted for 53% of last week’s book by geography type and banks for 33% by investor type.
The supply/demand imbalance, coupled with the tax rebate means you get strong technicals for the newly issued dollar bonds.
In addition, central banks, sovereign wealth funds and institutions – which tend to closely hold bonds – accounted for 26% of the orderbook.
This should have helped secondary market trading.
All of which led to robust performance and trading well inside the UST curve.
China recently unveiled plans to sell up to €4 billion of euro-denominated bonds later this month, but the above technical picture does not seem to apply to China’s Euro-denominated curve. China euro 5-year bonds, using CHINA 0 ¼ 11/25/30, have been trading between +20 and +40bps over the equivalent German Bund. China has not made it yet to the new risk-free rate.
Two Indian refiners bought a total of 5 million barrels of crude oil from the United States, Iraq, and the UAE on the spot market as they seek alternatives to Russian crude.
Reuters reported, citing unnamed industry sources, that Hindustan Petroleum Corp. had bought 2 million barrels of West Texas Intermediate and 2 million barrels of Murban crude for delivery in January.
The other refiner, Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals, bought 1 million barrels of Basra Medium, also to be delivered in January, the Reuters sources said.
The search for alternative oil supplies follows the Trump administration’s decision last month to sanction Rosneft and Lukoil, which together account for half of Russia’s oil exports and a significant portion of Indian imports from the country.
The sanctions ignited a rush to secure supplies ahead of the entry into effect of the sanctions, on November 21, while oil buyers look for loopholes to keep their access to discounted Russian crude.
Meanwhile, Bloomberg reported an unusual move by two tankers, both sanctioned by the European Union and the UK, which performed a ship-to-ship transfer off the Indian coast last week.
One of the tankers, the Ailana, had been idling for a couple of weeks prior to the transfer, Bloomberg wrote, noting that after the transfer, the receiving tanker, Fortis, continued to the Indian port of Kochi, while the Ailana set off for Russia.
In separate but related news, India’s president, Droupadi Murmu, said Indian oil and gas companies were seeking long-term relationships with Angolan energy entities, interested in investing both in energy commodities and in critical minerals.
“Angola’s role in India’s energy security is very important. India is a major buyer of Angola’s oil and gas. Our oil and gas companies are desirous of entering into a long-term purchase contract with Angola,” Murmu said during a state visit to the West African country.
“We May Have To Evacuate Tehran”: Iranian President’s Remarks Stun Amid Water Crisis
Coming off a very ‘hot’ geopolitical summer which saw Israel and the US attack Tehran and the Islamic Republic’s nuclear energy facilities, Iran is now facing yet another immensely threatening crisis amid historic drought: lack of water for the population of 90+ million.
Rainfall has been at record lows, causing reservoirs to be nearly empty, in an already arid Middle East climate. The situation has grown so acute that President Masoud Pezeshkian has warned that if the drought persists for another month, Tehran’s water would have to be rationed. But this appears to be happening currently, as no rain is expected for at least the next ten days.
Already Iranians are being urged to conserve water and only use what’s available for the most pressing needs. Pezeshkian has actually said something stunning and unprecedented on Monday, though some are describing it as obvious hyperbole:
“If rationing doesn’t work,” Pezeshkian said, “we may have to evacuate Tehran.“
The alarming statement resulted in an avalanche of criticism in Iranian media, also with former Tehran mayor Gholamhossein Karbaschi dismissing the idea as “a joke” and saying that “evacuating Tehran makes no sense at all”.
Some regional analysts and officials report an over 90% decrease in rainfall compared with last year. The NY Times summarizes of how dire the situation is:
Iran’s officials have begun rationing water in the capital, Tehran, amid a drought so severe that the president has warned the capital may need to be evacuated.
The country is facing the worst drought in six decades, and major dams are at critically low levels. Water authorities this week said the main dams feeding Tehran, on which more than 10 million people depend, were at 5 percent capacity.
On Sunday, the spokesman for Iran’s water industry, Isa Bozorgzadeh, told reporters that water pressure would be lowered from midnight until the morning “so that we can both reduce urban leakage and create an opportunity for city reservoirs to refill.”
People have in some cases taken to TikTok and other social media to show that faucets in their homes have stopped producing water for hours at a time.
The macro problems of mismanagement and over-consumption are why Iran faces a general water crisis, but this current crunch has a very important climate element.
Iranian officials are mulling extreme measures and outside-the-box approaches:
This fall, the Ministry of Energy announced the practice of “cloud seeding,” a weather modification technique that involves dispersing particles like silver iodide into existing clouds to encourage rainfall. However, for it to work, clouds need to contain at least 50 percent moisture, which experts say is not currently the case in Iran.
BBC writes of one vital reservoir, “The manager of the Latian Dam, one of Tehran’s main water sources, says it now holds less than 10% of its capacity. The nearby Karaj Dam — which supplies water to both Tehran and Alborz provinces — is in a similarly dire condition.”
“I have never seen this dam so empty since I was born,” one area resident told Iranian state TV.
I hope people are recognizing that they live in a very volatile world.
Growing up in the 60s-70s it was pretty tame. There was the Vietnam war and war protesters, there was the free-love movement, feminism and other cultural changes taking place, but the whole world was not aflame as it is now. This could only be brought about by a worldwide effort to throw it into chaos.
Chaos is the enemy of the capitalist and friend of the communist. It’s during chaos that communism can provide answers to the problems they’ve caused. But back in the 70s and 80s a lot could go on without notice. A person just working their job might not know it was happening. Today, every shiver and shrug of culture is noted, recorded and broadcast over the internet. To be ignorant of the issues today takes an intentional willingness, a refusal to be shoved out of their bliss. There is something to be said for that, even.
One of the things we advocated in the documentary Deconstruction is taking place right before our eyes. Anti-immigration countries are banding together into a solid block within the EU and the stronger they get, the more will want to join.
It’s a civil war that’s taking place, but not with weapons, with common sense and rational thinking challenging the tyrannical rule of a small group of communist bureaucrats in the EU.
I’m proud of our documentary for raising the important issues at such a crucial time. But this isn’t the end. There are only 4 or 5 of the 27 EU nations signing on to this, so there’s plenty of work to do.
Why is it important to me, or you, that this is taking place a world away? It has to do with national security, cultural restoration and the survival of civilization. The great works of art, of progress and a sense of building something for the future rests on the nations from whence we all came at some time or another.
What’s happening in the EU is the product of the globalists and the stronger they get, the weaker we are as a nation. The US is already suffering from the effects of a declining power. Its ability to produce a functional weapons system has been destroyed by the weapons bureaucracy. One might even think, through the woke military of so many years, even decades, that it’s actually sabotage that’s taken place.
The economy is a whisp of smoke and the arrangement of mirrors, the climbing GDP and such merely an inverted down-stepping chart. During Biden’s years government spending topped the GDP, trillions of printed dollars, suggesting that the GDP was keeping pace with debt, but one was fueling the other.
The point is, the focus of America was lost sometime back in the 1970s, when Nixon took the dollar off of the gold standard. It may not seem connected, but from that point onward, wages have declined while the amount paid in fiat dollars might rise, the standard of living decreases. How it’s connected, at least in my own thoughts, is that once the dollar was taken off of the gold standard, the nation became, especially in the upper echelons, focused on wealth retention rather than wealth building. Crypto is nothing less than a means to achieve that, though its dependence on electricity to make it work bothers me.
Inventions almost literally stopped about the same time and wringing more dollars out of the same technology became the intent of manufacturing. Cell phones are just radios, computers are now smaller and faster, but still work off of the original concept in the 1950s. Aircraft are still aircraft, drones are still aircraft, missiles, even the hypersonic ones, are not new technology. Automobiles, no matter how advanced or cool are no different, not even the self-driving ones. In fact, a lot of the things we find in our cars are not there for any other reason than to track the vehicle and bug it for meanspeak that will be important later after the social credit score kicks in. I prefer my 1996 F-150 to any of them and my 1985 diesel to it.
Is it any wonder that it seems like a reckoning must take place?
That allowing industries and government to control our lives is a bad idea?
That is fascism, by definition, unless they’ve changed the definition to mean anything “right,” which I think they have.
This is an epoch of change, some very drastic changes.
It’s a moment of revolution against the system on a global scale; a system that has taken whole populations and subjected them to cruel and malevolent punishment for being white, or European, or Christian. And that’s where this finally boils down to a civilizational battle.
In a world flooded by Islamists, who naturally reject the host nations and establish islands of Islam in seas of Christianity, it has to come down to a religious battle.
Right now, it’s a battle of driving more troops into Europe, or driving them out of the UK, France and Germany, in Sweden and Denmark. Hungary, Slovakia, Poland and the Czech Republic are pushing back against the experiment that has gone awry in Western Europe and attempting to keep the migrants out to start with, not because they hate migrants, but because, unlike Western Europe, they value their culture and religion.
America can draw strength from the Central and Eastern European bloc that has rejected illegal immigration rather than build a complete apparatus to deport those already there. One can understand it either as a religious battle, or a battle against communists, it works either way, because the Islamists are communists in drag. They are the communist shock troops and once the worldwide caliphate is established communism will simply slip away into the darkness of history, morphed into a religious, patriarchal tyranny.
It is the duty, in my mind, to stop it; to stop communism, Islam and anything that threatens the freedoms we’ve had in the past. I thought that would have been done by technology, that the advance of technology would create a world of individualists and it has that power to do so, but it has been coopted to become a weapon against the individual, promising security.
Anything is possible in this world, anything. All it takes is a concerted effort to achieve it. Focusing that intent is the hard part, but the lines are being drawn more definitively every day. This is the time to do it.
Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ZeroHedge.
While Chinese Singles‘ Day (today) was originally conceived as a celebration of people who are not in a relationship, the growing popularity of a lifestyle that prioritizes personal independence and self-discovery over traditional societal expectations has not come without side effects.
One such side effect has been a steep decline in marriage rates in China.
As Statista’s Felix Richter details below, young adults in particular are increasingly likely to delay or forgo marriage altogether, breaking away from the longstanding societal pressure to marry early.
While 47 percent of newly married people in China were 24 or younger in 2005, that number dropped to just 13 percent in 2024, with more than 50 percent of newlyweds older than 30, compared to less than 20 percent in 2005. The reasons behind this shift are multifaceted, encompassing factors such as changing gender roles, increased educational and career opportunities for women and a desire for personal fulfillment outside the confines of a traditional family structure. As our chart shows, the marriage rate in China dropped to a historic low of 4.3 new marriages per 1,000 people in 2024, down from more than double that a decade earlier.
Accompanying the decline in marriages has been the concerning trend of a falling birth rate in China, which fell to an all-time low in 2023 before rebounding slightly in 2024. Despite the small rebound, the country’s population continued to decline in 2024 after 2022 had marked the first annual population drop in over 60 years. The choice to remain single or delay marriage often translates into delayed parenthood or even a decision to remain childless. Economic considerations, career aspirations and the high cost of raising children in urban areas further contribute to this decline. The Chinese government’s efforts to encourage childbirth, such as the relaxation of the one-child policy, have yet to yield a substantial reversal of the declining birth rate.
So while the rise of the single culture in China is emblematic of evolving social attitudes and individual aspirations, it also raises questions about the long-term demographic and economic implications for the nation. As the number of single individuals continues to rise, policymakers are grappling with the need to adapt to this changing landscape, addressing challenges such as an aging population and potential strains on social welfare systems.
