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Southern Oscillation Index Plunge Triggers “Big Winter Storm Signal,” Meteorologist Warns

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Southern Oscillation Index Plunge Triggers “Big Winter Storm Signal,” Meteorologist Warns

Folks across the Mid-Atlantic, especially in the Washington, DC-Baltimore metro area, woke up to a rare December winter scene: a few inches of fresh snow on the ground. With a solid cold pattern locked in through the middle of the month, this early-season snow is something the region hasn’t seen this early in the cold season in many years.

With below-normal temperatures forecast across the Mid-Atlantic through at least mid-month – and potentially extending into the third week according to models, meteorologist Mark Margavage wrote on X that alarm bells are going off that signal a potential winter storm threat for the region could be a few weeks away. 

Margavage pointed to a sudden plunge in the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), which measures the sea-level pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin, Australia. Such a drop signals a shift from La Niña–like conditions (positive SOI values) toward neutral or even El Niño conditions (negative SOI values).

This transition weakens trade winds across the equatorial Pacific, warms sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific, and disrupts the Walker circulation, leading to widespread global weather anomalies.

One such anomaly that may occur at a 2 to 3 week lag is the increased risk of major winter storms or polar vortex disruptions in the Eastern U.S. 

Margavage explained more:

The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is a key indicator of the strength and phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Sustained strongly positive SOI values (typically 30-day average > +7 or +8) are associated with La Niña conditions, and sustained strongly negative values with El Niño.

This graph shows a very sharp collapse of the SOI from strongly positive (La Niña-like) values around +18 in mid-to-late November 2025 down to slightly positive or near-neutral values by early December 2025.

According to @grok “This is one of the fastest SOI drops on record.”

After a sudden SOI plunge of this magnitude and speed, the most common lag time to the first big Eastern U.S. winter storm or polar vortex disruption-driven cold wave is about 2–3 weeks, with a broader 10–35-day window of elevated risk.

So for the drop shown in this image (finalized ~5 Dec 2025), the highest winter storm threat in the Eastern U.S. is roughly December 18 – January 10, peaking late December to very early January 2026. So Christmas could be extremely Wintery this year!

Cold is here. 

Energy markets have responded:

If Margavage is right about the downstream weather impacts in the Lower 48 from a plunging SOI, this could suggest rising odds of a white Christmas in portions of the Eastern U.S.

Tyler Durden
Sat, 12/06/2025 – 11:05

Is A Backdoor Gold Standard Coming?

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Is A Backdoor Gold Standard Coming?

Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via The Epoch Times,

For decades, I’ve been vexed over a monetary issue. How can we transition from the present fiat money system to a sound-money standard like we once had in the United States and the world?

Clearly the gold standard was superior whereas we now have a fiat standard that has mired the world in debt and big government. A central-bank digital currency with programmable debt-based money and omnipresent surveillance is the dystopian nightmare of which many dream.

But this would pile calamity on top of disaster.

What we really need is the gold standard back. But how could it happen? There has never been a viable transition plan.

Rather, I’ve seen many such plans but they all have their limits. A clean redefinition of the dollar as a title for physical gold has huge transition problems and probable pricing chaos. We don’t even know for sure how much gold the federal government owns now. President Trump had spoken of auditing Fort Knox but that hasn’t happened.

Many other plans for a new Bretton Woods falter on grounds that they depend on sound management by the central bank. Such a system does not allow for domestic convertibility and will therefore lack a mechanism of discipline and a proof of credibility. It would also plunge us back to the very problem that ruined that system in its first try: gold flows break when governments overextend.

A purely pricing model—whereby the Fed targets the gold price—requires a level of precision, judgment, and knowledge that the Fed lacks. If it cannot manage the system now, why should we think it could manage a gold-price standard well?

There is a political problem that afflicts even the best reform plan. Any transition to a sound system requires the cooperation of many parties that benefit from the status quo: government, industry, finance, and banks. They are all nuts for the fiat system despite how it has eroded the standard of living for the middle class and fueled endless rounds of booms and busts.

We are relying on government to reform itself. This problem is intractable.

Keep in mind that the 19th-century gold standard was itself codified in the form of legislation. The Coinage Act of 1873 recognized that gold was money. This was not so much an imposition but a bow to reality. Forty years later, the central bank came along and that began the long process of destroying sound money.

It’s hard to shake the idea that a new gold standard would be a wonderful idea. How do we get from here to there?

Recent trends in gold and silver prices provide a strong hint that we could be slouching our way toward hard money in any case, with or without official planning.

Both gold and silver are experiencing a stunning renaissance. You would have to be naive not to observe the significance of these moves. These trends amount to a vote of confidence in the real over the financial fictions of the fiat world.

Source: Bloomberg

Over 10 years, the price of gold has moved from $1.1K per ounce to $4.2K, a 256 percent increase. The price of silver has moved from $13 to $57 per ounce, a 315 percent increase.

This beats both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500. This is an outstanding investment, one that beats dollar depreciation.

To be sure, the silver demand is driven by industrial interest. Gold is being pushed by investors. Still, to see the two move together suggests tremendous insecurity in the financial system. It could portend some significant moves in the future.

Demand has also increased based on new purchases from central banks and the new stablecoins (with a $308 billion market cap, up 50 percent in a year). Stable coins are trying to balance out their debt-dominated portfolios with some hard-money backing. This alone is remarkable, especially since intellectuals have been calling gold a “barbarous relic” for nearly one hundred years. Still to this day, these metals are considered to be safe havens.

The Basel III rules that took full effect in 2022 explicitly reclassified allocated gold as a zero-risk-weight asset again.

This is the first time since the 1970s. The timing is significant because this took place when the world economy was locked down and suffering from pandemic-related attacks.

Another crucial fact: more banks are today accepting gold and silver as collateral for dollar-based loans. This is a form of backdoor monetization. It is a small step for a liquid and portable metal to serve as money, with on and off ramps being provided by the banks themselves. Gold is already allowed to be used this way, and silver is on the way toward this status.

This path is consistent with F.A. Hayek’s speculations on the denationalization of money. He was an economist who had been writing for sound money since the 1930s. His plans were continually foiled by governments and the trends of his time. For his work on this topic, he was awarded the Nobel Prize in Economics in 1974.

After this, he decided it was time to say the unthinkable. He wrote that governments would never reform the money in a good way because governments love bad money. He said that the best path forward would be for the banks to shepherd the change themselves. He posited that banks could create a new currency based on their own assets or on a commodity basket of real goods.

Hayek speculated that when the money fails, the banks’ own hard money could serve as the monetary safe haven.

To some extent, his vision for choice in currency is being realized within the crypto sector. It was designed to be a non-state money. Bitcoin itself took a different direction when the core developers refused to allow it to scale, as Roger Ver explains.

This led to forks of new tokens. Now there are thousands of them, many with privacy protection that far exceeds Bitcoin. They are the go-to choice for people who actually use crypto for transactions.

But now we are seeing the advent of hybrid models, such as stablecoins backed by physical gold, thus uniting the soundness of gold with the speed and low cost of blockchain exchange of ownership titles.

If the money fails this time, and even if government defaults on its debt, these monetary instruments could immediately swing into action.

If the dollar actually degrades to the point that it is not useful, new pricing structures could emerge rooted in crypto and/or hard money like gold and silver.

Would that not be fascinating if we eventually end up with a gold standard as fact even without legislation?

As in 1873, Congress can come along later and recognize reality after the fact.

Such a path would be consistent with the long history of money. It was never a creation of the state but rather emerged from markets. A new and better path to sound money in our times might travel the same trajectory.

Tyler Durden
Sat, 12/06/2025 – 10:30

Anti-Free-Speech War Escalates As EU Unleashes DSA On Musk’s X

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Anti-Free-Speech War Escalates As EU Unleashes DSA On Musk’s X

For years, many in the free speech community (most vehemently, Jonathan Turley) have warned about the threat of the European Union to free speech, particularly in the enactment of the infamous Digital Services Act (DSA).

The EU has virtually declared war on free speech and is targeting American companies.

That war just began with the first DSA fine.

Not surprisingly, X was the chosen target – a company blamed by many in the EU and the U.S. for rolling back free-speech protections.

In essence, it’s punishment for not bending the knee to the EU’s iron-fisted control over online content.

As Modernity.news’ Steve Watson points out, the fine reeks of the same vindictive playbook the EU has used since Musk took over Twitter in 2022. It’s no coincidence; Brussels has been gunning for him precisely because he’s turned the platform into a haven for unfiltered discourse, refusing to censor at the whim of unelected technocrats.

This isn’t a one-off slap; it’s the culmination of years of threats and harassment. Back in January 2023, EU Commission Vice-President Vera Jourová openly warned Musk that his “freedom of speech absolutism” wouldn’t fly, declaring the “time of the Wild West is over” and threatening sanctions if Twitter didn’t comply with DSA rules. She conflated illegal content with anything the elites deem offensive, setting the stage for today’s fine.

In October 2023, EU Commissioner Thierry Breton fired off a letter demanding X address “illegal content and disinformation” related to the Gaza conflict. Musk fired back, demanding a specific list of violations so the public could judge for themselves.

Breton’s vague accusations—citing repurposed images and unverified claims—highlighted the EU’s preference for opacity over accountability. Musk called it out: “List the violations you allude to on X, so that the public can see them.” The EU’s response was not forthcoming, but the threats continued.

Further, Musk brings receipts showing the European Union sent him a formal letter demanding that he censor Donald Trump during the 2024 US presidential election.

Since Musk’s acquisition, X has become a battleground for free expression, reinstating accounts banned under the old regime and prioritizing user-driven content over algorithmic suppression. But for the EU, that’s the problem.

Their DSA empowers regulators to dictate what platforms promote or demote, under the guise of fighting “hate speech” and “misinformation.” In reality, it’s a tool to silence dissent against open borders, climate hysteria, or any narrative challenging the globalist agenda.

This fine doesn’t exist in a vacuum – it’s part of a chilling pattern of EU overreach that threatens privacy and free speech across the continent.

Take the proposed Chat Control law, which would mandate backdoors into encrypted messages on apps like WhatsApp and Signal.

Sold as a child protection measure, it would scan billions of private conversations, exposing users to hacking, fraud, and government spying. Signal’s CEO Meredith Whittaker slammed it as a “catastrophic about-face” that betrays Europe’s privacy commitments, while experts warn of mass false positives and geopolitical abuse.

Then there’s Brussels’ aggressive enforcement tactics. In May of this year, the European Commission sued Czechia, Spain, Cyprus, Poland, and Portugal for dragging their feet on DSA implementation—specifically for not appointing national coordinators or setting penalties. Critics see this as forcing member states into a surveillance straitjacket, where platforms must over-censor to avoid fines, stifling smaller voices and user privacy.

At the heart of it all is the EU’s obsession with controlling information flows. In a January 2024 speech at Davos, Commission President Ursula von der Leyen declared disinformation the “top concern” for the coming years, calling for a “new global framework” where governments and Big Tech collaborate to police AI and online content.

She praised the DSA for defining platform responsibilities, but the subtext was clear: crush platforms like X that don’t toe the line. Jourová echoed this, meeting with Meta and YouTube execs to ensure compliance while targeting Musk’s “absolutism.”

These moves expose the hypocrisy: the EU claims to champion democracy but builds an Orwellian apparatus that monitors, scans, and punishes speech. It’s not about safety—it’s about power.

This latest EU assault on X has infuriated US Vice President JD Vance, who yesterday, as rumors of the impending penalty circulated, took to X and posted:

“The EU should be supporting free speech not attacking American companies over garbage.”

Vance’s previously blistering critiques of European tyranny sent shockwaves through Brussels. In a February 2025 speech at the Munich Security Conference, Vance tore into EU leaders for preaching democracy while arresting citizens for silent prayer, canceling elections, and ignoring voters on mass migration.

“No voter on this continent went to the ballot box to open the floodgates to millions of unvetted immigrants,” he declared, labeling Europeans as more than “interchangeable cogs in a global economy.”

German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius called Vance’s opinions “unacceptable,” proving Vance’s point about normalized authoritarianism.

Vance’s words were prescient—today’s fine on X exemplifies how the EU weaponizes laws to crush free speech platforms, treating them as threats to their controlled narrative. With Trump back in the White House and Vance as a key ally, expect pushback: America won’t stand idly by as allies erode the very freedoms that define the West.

The $140 million hit on X isn’t just a fine—it’s a declaration of war on uncensored dialogue.

Musk’s platform remains one of the last major outposts where ideas flow freely, unhampered by globalist filters. As the EU tightens its grip, the message is clear: comply or be crushed.

As Jonathan Turley concludes, this is the first fine under the DSA and the EU officials acknowledged that it will lay the foundation for additional penalties to come to force companies to comply with EU “values” on free speech.

Specifically, the European Commission has imposed a €120 million ($140 million) fine on X after finding that it misled users with its paid-for blue checkmark verification symbol, failed to provide researchers with access to data, and did not properly set up an advertising repository. 

X has 60 days to develop solutions to address the issues and 90 days to implement the changes, or it may face additional fines.

Under the DSA, the EU can impose fines of up to 6% of an online platform’s annual global revenue for failing to address illegal content, disinformation, or transparency requirements.

It is still investigating X as well as several other major US tech firms, including Apple, Google, and Meta, under the DSA and the Digital Markets Act.

This includes investigations for failing to carry out demands for censorship, including of American citizens.

This is just the first salvo in a war that some of us have warned is coming. We cannot be passive at this moment. The EU is threatening the very indispensable right that has long defined us as a people. Many in the United States are rooting for the Europeans to roll back free-speech protections at X and Meta. Some have appeared before the EU to call for this type of action. They could use the EU to achieve abroad what they have failed to accomplish in the United States. The results will be the same for Americans, who will find themselves subject to European censors and “values.”

Tyler Durden
Sat, 12/06/2025 – 09:55

French Soldiers ‘Open Fire’ On Drones Threatening High-Secure Nuclear Submarine Base

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French Soldiers ‘Open Fire’ On Drones Threatening High-Secure Nuclear Submarine Base

A major security breach of French military airspace has been revealed Friday at a moment European officials have been hyping the ‘hybrid warfare’ threat from Russia, which has of late centered on many dozens of ‘mystery’ drone breaches in EU airspace especially near sensitive locations like airports.

French Marines opened fire on five unidentified drones that breached restricted airspace above a key nuclear submarine base Thursday evening, military officials said, according to EuroNews. But one official has said a “jammer” was hot and not necessarily live ammunition. 

via Telegram

At around 7:30pm local at the Île Longue naval base in Brittany, which importantly is the command center for France’s fleet of nuclear-armed ballistic missile submarines, radar detected incoming unauthorized UAVs at the high-secure facility.

The marine infantry battalion responsible for protecting the site immediately deployed anti-drone procedures, which included firing several shots at the aircraft in an effort to disable and bring them down.

As it wasn’t confirmed whether the drones were actually hit, the security forces initiated a large-scale search operation. Authorities still haven’t confirmed that any drones were brought down or recovered.

The drones may have been electronically thwarted or intercepted, based on vague references from French military officials, but not much in the way of details have been offered: 

Defense Minister Catherine Vautrin confirmed that troops at the base intercepted an overflight, without detailing whether they fired shots, used electronic jamming or other means against the aerial intruders. It wasn’t clear who was responsible.

“Any overflight of a military site is prohibited in our country,” Vautrin said. “I want to commend the interception carried out by our military personnel at the Île Longue base.”

The installation is located near Brest in western France, and is guarded by more than 120 maritime forces alongside naval security forces, according to French media.

It hosts four ballistic missile submarines — Le Triomphant, Le Téméraire, Le Vigilant, and Le Terrible — and provides maintenance for the vessels which support the nation’s nuclear deterrent. According to official policy, at least one nuclear submarine is deployed on patrol at all times.

“No link with foreign interference has been established,” Frédéric Teillet, the public prosecutor in Rennes, was quoted in AFP as saying. He also indicated that no operators behind the drones have been apprehended or identified.

European officials have of late and without firm evidence been pointing the finger at Russian intelligence for a series of drone incidents near commercial and military airports and installations in northern Europe.

Tyler Durden
Sat, 12/06/2025 – 08:45

UK Sanctions Russia After Inquiry Holds Putin Responsible For 2018 Novichok Poisonings

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UK Sanctions Russia After Inquiry Holds Putin Responsible For 2018 Novichok Poisonings

Authored by Guy Birchall via The Epoch Times,

The UK issued new sanctions on Russia on Dec. 4, after a public inquiry into the death of a woman poisoned by the nerve agent Novichok in the UK in 2018 held Russian President Vladimir Putin responsible for her demise.

London also summoned the Kremlin’s ambassador for a response to the inquiry’s findings and over what it called an “ongoing campaign of hostile activity” against the UK.

The public inquiry into the death of Dawn Sturgess concluded that Putin had ordered the 2018 Novichok attack by GRU agents on Sergei Skripal, a Russian defector and former GRU colonel, in Salisbury, Wiltshire, which eventually resulted in the death of Sturgess, who had no connection to Skripal or Russia.

“The Salisbury poisonings shocked the nation and today’s findings are a grave reminder of the Kremlin’s disregard for innocent lives,” British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said in a statement. “Dawn’s needless death was a tragedy and will forever be a reminder of Russia’s reckless aggression. My thoughts are with her family and loved ones.”

He said the UK “will always stand up to Putin’s brutal regime” and “call out his murderous machine for what it is.”

“Today’s sanctions are the latest step in our unwavering defense of European security, as we continue to squeeze Russia’s finances and strengthen Ukraine’s position at the negotiating table,” he added.

Along with the GRU in its entirety, London specifically sanctioned eight cyber military intelligence officers, as well as three other GRU officers, it said were responsible for orchestrating hostile activity in Ukraine and across Europe, including plotting an attack on Ukrainian supermarkets.

The latest sanctions build on a string of packages that have been issued by the UK against Moscow in support of its ally, Ukraine.

Russia has always denied any involvement in the Salisbury incident and dismissed the latest move by the UK.

“The Russian side does not recognize illegitimate sanctions imposed under far-fetched pretexts in circumvention of the UN Security Council, and reserves the right to retaliatory measures,” Moscow’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova said, Russian state news agency TASS reported.

“The British can be confident in the inevitability of such measures.”

Zakharova criticized British allegations that the phone of Skripal’s daughter, Yulia, was allegedly hacked by GRU agents.

“Britain announced that Yulia Skripal’s ‘electronic device was hacked.’ Why won’t Yulia Skripal herself speak out about what’s going on? How has she been living all these years? What’s happened to her father? Why is hacking ‘Yulia Skripal’s electronic device’ equated to ‘undermining the integrity of the state?’” she wrote on Telegram.

“I’m tired of these tasteless tales from the English crypt.”

Sturgess, 44, died after being exposed to Novichok, which had been left in a discarded perfume bottle in Amesbury, Wiltshire, in July 2018.

Her death followed the attempted murder of the Skripals and then-police officer Nick Bailey, who were poisoned in nearby Salisbury in March of that year.

According to the public inquiry, they were harmed when members of a Russian GRU military intelligence squad smeared the nerve agent on Sergei Skripal’s door handle.

In the inquiry’s final report, published on Dec. 4, Judge Lord Hughes concluded that the attempted assassination of Skripal “must have been authorized at the highest level, by President Putin.”

Hughes said GRU agents Alexander Petrov, Ruslan Boshirov, and Sergey Fedotov were “acting on instructions” when they carried out the attack.

Following the report’s publication, Lord Hughes said: “The conduct of Petrov and Boshirov, their GRU superiors and those who authorized the mission up to and including, as I have found, President Putin, was astonishingly reckless.

“They, and only they, bear moral responsibility for Dawn’s death.”

Tyler Durden
Sat, 12/06/2025 – 08:10

Germany’s Merz Secures Pensions Bill, Ending Embarrassing Internal Rebellion

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Germany’s Merz Secures Pensions Bill, Ending Embarrassing Internal Rebellion

Germany’s Bundestag on Friday finally approved a contentious pension reform package which was subject of weeks of internal revolt within Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s own Christian Democratic Union party. But this brings to an effective end yet another challenge in his turbulent first seven months in office.

The lower house passed the legislation, which rolls out a reform locking the state pension level at 48% of average wages through 2031, by a vote of 319 to 225, with 53 lawmakers abstaining.

Source: AFP

Eighteen younger members of Merz’s center-right Union bloc, a number greater than his coalition’s parliamentary majority, had led an aggressive campaign of resistance to the plan. They argued it will place an unfair burden on younger generations, among other issues including hidden mounting costs.

We’ve for months documented that Germany’s public pension system is under mounting pressure: amid a deepening economic crisis, uncontrolled poverty migration, and a rapidly aging population, a shrinking workforce is being forced to shoulder an ever-growing burden. Meanwhile, the number of pension recipients continues to rise and has now smashed through the 21-million mark.

Merz has tried, dubiously, to demonstrate firm control over his coalition by pushing for an absolute majority of all 630 Bundestag members. However, Friday’s vote outcome spared him the embarrassment of passing the bill only with the help of opposition abstentions from the Left Party. On this, Politico explains:

Earlier this week, Germany’s far-left Die Linke (The Left) party announced its lawmakers would abstain from the vote, effectively ensuring its passage by reducing the overall number of votes needed to pass the pension legislation.

Still, Merz continued to try to secure the support of young conservatives in order to avoid the politically damaging impression that his coalition was dependent on indirect far-left support to get the package over the line.

Ultimately, only seven members of Merz’s conservative bloc voted against the package, giving the conservative leader a so-called chancellor’s majority.

He had entered office by criticizing the political chaos and internal strife which characterized former Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s government before it collapsed last year. Merz vowed to avoid such a bumpy road, but his stint thus far has been precisely that.

“This is not the end of our pension policy,” Merz said immediately after Friday’s vote. “It’s only the beginning.” He conceded that the controversy revealed just “how big the challenges are that our country faces.”

He further said his office has been engaged in “too many public discussions” – among the more pressing priorities of the country’s stagnant economy and the question of the migration crisis.

Tyler Durden
Sat, 12/06/2025 – 07:35

Just How Dystopian Could Starmer’s Britain Become?

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Just How Dystopian Could Starmer’s Britain Become?

Authored by Nick Corbishley via NakedCapitalism.com,

Scaling back trial by jury, further attacks on lawful speech, the nationwide deployment of deeply flawed facial recognition systems… The list just keeps growing longer. 

We first asked this question — Just How Dystopian Could Starmer’s Britain Become? — just over a year ago. At that point in time, with the  government just four months in office, all we could offer as an answer was: how long is a piece of string? Now, 13 months later, it is clear that said string is very long indeed, and is getting longer by the day.

On his election, in July 2024, Starmer promised that his Labour government would “tread (stomp?) more lightly” on the lives of voters. It is one of a growing multitude of pledges Starmer has broken during his 17 months in office. In this particular case, it took just two months for Starmer to change course, telling delegates at the 2024 Labour Party Conference that the State would, in fact, take greater control over people’s lives.

In the months that followed, plans were unveiled to, among other things, launch “non-mandatory” digital identity (more on that later); expand the use of live facial recognition technology (ditto); resurrect an old Tory policy to grant inspectors at the Department of Work and Pensions increased powers to snoop on claimants’ bank accounts; and intensify the British State’s crackdown on lawful speech.

That, it turns out, was just for starters. For the main course, the Starmer government is now setting its sights on trial by jury, a legal protection that has existed in England for almost a thousand years and forms one of the bedrocks of democratic legal systems.

Curtailing a Centuries-Old Right

In an ostensible bid to reduce court backlogs, Deputy Prime Minister and Lord Chancellor David Lammy has announced plans to limit people’s right to trial by jury in England and Wales. If the plans are enacted, a new tier of “swift” courts will be created to replace jury trials for most offences that carry a likely jail sentence of less than three years as well as complex fraud and financial cases.

Speed and expediency are the goal. Under the proposed changes, only the most serious offences — murder, manslaughter and rape — would continue to be heard by a jury of one’s peers. Despite the fact that English Common Law draws upon the ancient right of trial by jury rooted in Magna Carta, Lammy asserted that “we must never forget that [Magna Carta] implores us not to deny or delay justice.”

Bearing the Orwellian title “Swift and Fair Plan to Get Justice for Victims”, Lammy’s proposal, which is presumably not his own, is extremely controversial. As writes Daniel Alge, senior lecturer in Criminology & Criminal Justice at Brunel University of London, the right to be tried by one’s peers has deep roots in the legal tradition of England and Wales:

Its origins trace back to Magna Carta in 1215, which promised that no one would lose their liberty or property without “the lawful judgement of his peers and the law of the land”.

The judge and legal philosopher Lord Devlin described trial by jury as “the lamp that shows that freedom lives”. It is a symbolic cornerstone of justice in England and Wales.These proposals go far beyond the recommendations put forward in Brian Leveson’s independent review of the criminal courts, published in July 2025. Leveson proposed trial by judge alone where the defendant requested it, or in particularly lengthy and complex trials. But Lammy’s proposals appear to be a watering down of leaked MoJ plans to restrict the use of jury trials to only “public interest” cases with sentences of over five years.

In practical terms, jury trials already form only a small part of the system, accounting for around 2% of all criminal cases. Ministry of Justice data shows that most criminal cases are resolved in the magistrates’ courts, in which three magistrates (who are volunteer lay people rather than professional judges), determine guilt as well as sentence.

In other words, this will probably have a limited impact on the court backlogs. There can be no doubting that the criminal courts are under extraordinary pressure, with a record backlog of over 78,000 crown court cases.

However, NC readers will be unsurprised to learn that the main cause of that backlog, according to Alge, is “years of budget reductions, court closures, maintenance backlogs and limits on the number of days courts were permitted to sit.”

One of the most disturbing aspects of Lamy’s proposed changes is their potential political implications. For centuries juries have served as a democratic check on government power. In fact, that is exactly why the barons approached King John in 1215 to sign the Magna Carta, requesting the right to trial by jury — as a check on the unruly king’s power.

The renowned English jurist, justice, and Tory politician William Blackstone (1723-1780) wrote the following about trial by jury in his Commentaries on the Laws of England, which (according to Wikipedia) became the best-known description of the doctrines of the English common law:

“Trial by jury ever has been, and I trust ever will be, looked upon as the glory of the English law… So that the liberties of England cannot but subsist so long as this palladium remains sacred and inviolate; not only from all open attacks (which none will be so hardy as to make), but also from secret machinations, which may sap and undermine it; by introducing new and arbitrary methods of trial.

In the House of Commons on Tuesday, Labour MP Diane Abbot left Starmer with egg on his face by reminding him of what he himself had said about trial by jury in 1992: “the right to trial by jury is an important factor in the delicate balance between the power of the State and the power of the individual.”

As Steve James writes for WSWS, one of the real targets of the proposed legislation is something called “jury equity” or “jury nullification”, which can be particularly important in trials of a political nature:

This refers to the right of a jury to determine whether a crime has been committed at all, regardless of the opinion of the trial judge.

Jury equity was famously exercised in 1985 by the jury in the case against civil servant Clive Ponting, who leaked details of the then Tory government’s misinformation over the circumstances surrounding the 1982 sinking of the Argentine cruiser General Belgrano by the Royal Navy, with the loss of 272 lives.

Ponting was acquitted after a two-week trial, despite admitting that he had leaked the documents in question and the trial judge’s insistence that he had no defence in law. Ponting claimed, and the jury agreed, that releasing the documents, which exposed government lies over the circumstances of the sinking, was in the public interest.

The principle has become an irritant to governments ever since, particularly following a series of cases in which members of climate and anti-genocide protest organisations such as Extinction Rebellion and Palestine Action have been acquitted despite instructions from the bench.

Added Legal Protection for Financial Criminals?

The fact that complex financial and fraud cases, which are defined as those involving “hidden dishonesty or complexity outside the understanding of the general public”, will also be exempt from trial by jury if Lammy’s proposed bill is enacted is also deeply troubling, though it seems to be getting less traction in the media.

Without trial by jury, the legal process could be further tilted in the favour of the UK’s financial and business elite. After all, it’s easier to corrupt one judge than 12 (angry) men and women. And this is the UK we are talking about, the country that arguably perfected the art (if you can call it that) of financial crime.

However, an alternative perspective was offered in the comments section by NC reader Anonymous 2:

If you use mathematical models to commit fraud with complicated algebraic formulae and place them in front of a group of ordinary English men and women and start arguing about the merits or demerits of particular pricing models (e.g. options), then you be can be completely sure that they will glaze over mentally very quickly.

At the very least the jury should be made up of genuine peers in such cases – i.e. people with a high level of mathematical and financial skills, not the average man or woman in the street. Otherwise I am comfortable with a smaller panel of suitably qualified experts supporting the judge, who should also be a specialist in trying advanced financial fraud.

The present system is an invitation to fraudsters because if they make their frauds sufficiently complex there is not a snowball in hell’s chance the jury will convict as they have to be confident that they understand the issues and in such cases they won’t.

The drastic curtailing of jury trials would be concerning enough if it were being done by a government that had shown itself to be more or less worthy of the voters’ trust. That is not the case here.

In fact, Keir Starmer is the most unpopular prime minister since records began in 1977 — a feat he managed to pull off in little over a year. His Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rachel Reeves, is also apparently the most unpopular chancellor on record.

It’s not hard to see why: they have broken just about every promise they made to voters. As the veteran journalist Peter Oborne warned before Starmer’s election, “it would be very unwise to believe a word Starmer says — he has a long record of making promises which he then goes on to break.”

Laying the Foundations of an Authoritarian State

Starmer also has extreme authoritarian impulses. As The Guardian‘s George Monbiot warned in February, his government is laying the foundations of an authoritarian state that could be used by an even more extreme government in the future — perhaps even one led by Reform leader Nigel Farage:

Here are three of the consistent features of authoritarian states: the extreme persecution of dissent, the use of parajudicial measures to shut down opposition movements, and the selective application of the law. All three are already widely deployed in the UK. Though they were introduced in their current form by the Tories, they have been sustained and defended by Keir Starmer’s party.

What this means is that if a hard- or far-right government starts doing what they always do – persecuting minorities and opponents, ripping into public services and the enabling state – and if good citizens take to the streets to defend the people and institutions under attack, the government will be able to round them up and throw them in prison, without the need for a single new law or statute.

Freedom of speech is under constant attack. As the Times of London reported in April this year, police officers made 12,183 arrests in 2023, when the Tories were in office, the equivalent of around 33 per day, under section 127 of the Communications Act 2003 and section 1 of the Malicious Communications Act 1988.

The acts, which make it illegal to cause distress by sending “grossly offensive” messages or sharing content of an “indecent, obscene or menacing character” on an electronic communications network, are being applied on an ever-broader basis. We don’t yet know how many arrests were made in 2024, when Starmer came to power.

What we do know is that hundreds of people, including many pensioners, have been arrested for simply protesting against Israel’s genocide in Gaza. The recent prosecution of Natalie Strecker for writing and sharing tweets calling for resistance against the genocide revealed just how twisted the UK’s legal system has become.

From former UK ambassador Craig Murray’s blog post, “The Terrifying Case of Natalie Strecker”:

Strecker is charged with eliciting support for Hamas and Hezbollah, based on 8 tweets, cherry-picked by police and prosecutors from an astounding 51,000 tweets she sent, mainly from the Jersey Palestine Solidarity Committee account….

The prosecution case is that these tweets, both collectively and individually, amount to an invitation of support for Hamas and Hezbollah resulting in up to ten years in jail in Jersey, or 14 years in jail on the UK mainland.

The prosecution explicitly stated, and the judge notably intervened to make sure that everybody understood, that it is the offence of supporting terrorism to state that the Palestinians have the right to armed resistance in international law.

Judge John Saunders interrupted the prosecution to ask whether they were saying that he would be guilty of support for terrorism if, in a lecture, he told an international law class that Palestinians have the right to armed resistance in international law.

After some kerfuffle when faced with such an awkward question, the prosecution replied that yes, it could be the offence to tell law students that.

“A Fledgling Police State”

While Strecker was eventually acquitted, her case reveals a very disturbing truth about the state of lawful speech under the Starmer government, notes the journalist and author Jonathan Cook:

The British state considers it unlawful to repeat what international law explicitly states: that occupied peoples like the Palestinians have a right to resist their illegal occupation.

That means:

a) The Starmer government openly rejects international law.

b) The Starmer government can scrap free speech and the right to protest – the bare minimal foundations of a democracy – whenever it chooses. We must conclude that we now live in a fledgling police state, that the number of political prisoners is going to grow rapidly, and that the room for dissent is going to shrink further and further.

The fact that this is all happening under a prime minister who before entering politics was a senior human rights lawyer makes it all the more disturbing.

“Facial Recognition” in “Every City, Town and Village”?

At the same time, the Starmer government is planning to unleash live facial recognition cameras across the UK’s urban landscape, completing a project begun some years ago under the Tories.

The Daily Telegraph reports that facial recognition technology could be used in “every city, town and village”. Under the plans, the Police could also be allowed to compare photos of crime suspects against the images of 45 million Britons stored in the passport database.

Silkie Carlo, director of Big Brother Watch, warned that the expansion would transform the UK into an “open prison” and that passports would become “mugshots for a giant surveillance database, putting the British public at risk of misidentifications and injustice”:

“Every search through this harvest of our personal photos puts millions of innocent citizens through a police line-up without our knowledge or consent. Sir Keir Starmer’s Government is committing to historic breaches of Britons’ privacy that you might expect to see in China but not in a democracy.”

The scheme is already hitting resistance among some local councils. A cross-party group of independent, Labour and Liberal Democrat councillors on Woking Borough Council is calling for the scheme to be suspended, warning that it “risks residents’ right to privacy” and disproportionately impacts ethnic minority communities.

The mass roll out of facial recognition systems goes hand-in-hand with the government’s proposed digital identity system, which in turn goes hand-in-hand with the online age verification system launched in the summer as well as the central bank digital currency (CBDCs) — the so-called “Digital Pound” — that the Bank of England is currently developing.

Digital identity is the keystone of the digital control grids governments around the world are rapidly erecting to keep their restless populaces in check. Without digital identity, the programmable CBDCs that would give central banks and government unprecedented ability to track and control our spending would be unworkable, as the Bank for International Settlements admitted in 2021.

So far, almost 3 million people have signed a parliamentary petition calling on the Starmer government to scrap its plans to launch a de facto mandatory digital identity system. As the Electronic Frontier Foundation (EFF) notes, the digital identity systems being created by governments around the world are “fundamentally incompatible with a privacy-protecting and human rights-defending democracy”:

It potentially leads to situations where state authorities can treat the entire population with suspicion of not belonging, and would shift the power dynamics even further towards government control over our freedom of movement and association…

In a country increasing the deployment of other surveillance technologies like face recognition technology, this raises additional concerns about how digital ID could lead to new divisions and inequalities based on the data obtained by the system.

EFF is one of 13 rights groups, including Big Brother Watch and Privacy International, that will be urging Members of Parliament to “oppose measures that risk turning the UK into a Checkpoint Britain” at this coming Monday’s petition debate. [For interested UK-based readers: click here to use Big Brother Watch’s speedy tool to call on your respective MPs to attend the debate]

Of course, as we noted in the first post in this series, most of the dystopian policies and practices highlighted in this post — particularly the crackdowns on protests and free speech — represent a continuation, and at times intensification, of policies and practices already well under way under the Tories. 

It is also true that these policies and practices form part of a generalised trend among ostensibly “liberal democracies” — as broad economic conditions deteriorate and AI-enabled technologies advance, the temptation among governments to exploit these new surveillance and control systems is irresistible while the potential benefits for Big Tech are huge.

It is a trend of which Starmer’s Britain is most definitely at the sharp, leading edge. 

Tyler Durden
Sat, 12/06/2025 – 07:00

“Widespread Misconduct”: Trump Admin Orders All Beneficiaries Of Nation’s Largest DEI Program To Surrender Financial Records

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“Widespread Misconduct”: Trump Admin Orders All Beneficiaries Of Nation’s Largest DEI Program To Surrender Financial Records

The Daily Wire has learned that the Small Business Administration has ordered all 4,300 firms in its 8(a) “socially disadvantaged” program, which receive no-bid federal contracts, to turn over their financial records, including general ledgers, bank statements, payroll files, subcontracting agreements, and other internal documents, by January 5 or face removal from the program.

SBA’s crackdown on one of Washington’s oldest DEI initiatives follows mounting evidence that some 8(a) firms have become a major pipeline for fraud, pass-through schemes, and artificially inflated contract costs.

Late last month, Peter Schweizer, president of the Government Accountability Institute and the investigative journalist who broke the Clinton Cash corruption story, published a report exposing the cronyism and corruption inside the 8(a) program, where pass-through firms handed bidless contracts on silver platters while quietly outsourcing the real work to major consulting companies.

“For years, DC insiders have exploited a federal DEI contracting program that provides windfalls to Beltway elites. This open secret isn’t about helping the downtrodden; it’s about bagging no-bid paydays. The SBA’s 8(a) program is long overdue for reform,” Schweizer wrote on X.

There was also a recent U.S. Treasury Department investigation into $9 billion in small-business contracting, amid alarming concerns from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and others about rampant fraud and abuse in preference-based programs. In other words, meritocracy will return under the Trump administration.

Everyone in the DC consulting world understands how the game works: set up a compliant 8(a) “small business,” win the no-bid award, and let the big consulting firms do all the work.

8(a) was DC’s best-kept secret – until journalist James O’Keefe blew the lid off the DEI program. O’Keefe went undercover and captured video of an individual linked to ATI Government Solutions bragging about keeping $65 million of a $100 million contract while subcontracting out the work.

Several firms, including ATI, have since been suspended. Native American tribes whose names were used in pass-through schemes are also under increasing scrutiny.

SBA Administrator Kelly Loeffler said there is mounting evidence that minority contracts had become “a pass-through vehicle for rampant abuse and fraud,” especially after the Biden administration raised the target for contracts “set aside” for minorities from 5% to 15% of all contracting dollars.

“We’re committed to thoroughly reviewing every federal contract, contracting officer, and contractor — while working alongside federal law enforcement,” Loeffler said.

Such reports “have raised questions about widespread misconduct within the 8(a) Business Development Program, adding to years of credible concerns that the program designed to serve ‘socially and economically disadvantaged’ businesses has become a vehicle for institutionalized abuse at taxpayer expense,” the SBA wrote in its letter to the 4,300 “disadvantaged” firms.

Schweizer hinted at the 8(a) reforms needed:

Last week… 

DEI mandates have proven to make the government more dysfunctional and more costly. It’s time to end the madness and “Make Meritocracy Great Again.”  

Tyler Durden
Sat, 12/06/2025 – 06:00

Escobar: How The BRICS+ ‘Unit’ Can Save Global Trade

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Escobar: How The BRICS+ ‘Unit’ Can Save Global Trade

Authored by Pepe Escobar,

The Unit project, first revealed by Sputnik in 2024, is emerging as the most viable option for breaking the US dollar’s stranglehold on global trade and investment.

In his book co-written with top economist Sergey Bodrunov, Regulations of the Noonomy (international edition published this year by Sandro Teti Editore in Rome), leading Russian economist Sergey Glazyev stresses the need to “ensure a full-fledged switch to national currencies in mutual trade and investment within the EAEU and the CIS, and further – within the BRICS and SCO, the withdrawal of joint development institutions from the dollar zone, the development of their own independent payment systems and interbank information exchange systems.”

When it comes to financial innovation – compared to the current structure of the international financial system – The Unit is in a class of its own.

The Unit is essentially a benchmark token – or an index token; a post-stablecoin, digital monetary tool; totally decentralized; and with intrinsic value anchored in real assets: gold and sovereign currencies.

The Unit can be used either as part of a new digital infrastructure – what most of the Global South is striving for; or as part of a traditional banking setup.

When it comes to fulfilling traditional money functions, The Unit is – pardon the pun – right on the money. It’s meant to be used as a quite convenient medium of exchange in cross-border trade and investments – a key plank of the diversification actively pursued by BRICS+.

It should also be seen as an independent, reliable measure for value and pricing, as well as a better store of value than fiat money.

The Unit is academically validated – including by Glazyev himself – and properly governed by IRIAS (International Research Institute for Advanced Systems), set up in 1976 in accordance with the UN statute.

And crucial at this next step, The Unit is to be launched early next year on the Cardano blockchain, which uses the digital currency Ada.

Ada has a fascinating background – named after Ada Lovelace, a 19th-century mathematician, daughter of none other than Lord Byron, and recognized as the first computer programmer in History.

Anyone, anywhere can use Ada as a secure exchange of value; and very important, without the need to ask a third party to mediate the exchange.

That means every Ada transaction is permanently secured and recorded on the Cardano blockchain. That also means that every Ada holder also holds a stake in the Cardano network.

Cardano has been around for 10 years now – and is a quite popular blockchain. It’s backed by some quite big venture capital firms such as IOHK, Emurgo and the Cardano Foundation. Essentially, Cardano is an excellent option for regular payments because transactions are cheap and fast.

Neither a crypto nor a stablecoin

Enter The Unit.

The Unit is neither a cryptocurrency nor a stablecoin – as it’s shown here.

A concise definition of The Unit would be a resilient reserve of value – backed by a structure of 60% gold and 40% diversified BRICS+ currencies.

The major appeal for the Global South is that such a unique mix provides stability and protection against inflation, especially under the current global financial landscape of wobbly macroeconomics and widespread uncertainty.

Using Cardano, The Unit is bound to become accessible to everyone, via a combination of centralized and decentralized exchanges.

So to enter this new market, individuals and companies will be able to acquire The Unit directly with fiat through regulated banking partners. That means a bridge between traditional finance and emerging decentralized ecosystems – in favor of liquidity, accessibility and reliability, opening the door to full adoption by the Global South.

The Unit can even evolve into a new form of digital cash for emerging economies.

Following exactly the path delineated by BRICS even before the ground-breaking annual summit in Kazan in 2024, The Unit may be the best solution currently available for cross-border payments: a new form of international currency, issued in a de-centralized way, and then recognized and regulated at a national level.

And that brings us to the top conceptual strength of The Unit: it removes a direct dependency on the currency of other nations, and offers the Global South/Global Majority a new form of non-censored, apolitical money.

Better yet: apolitical money featuring an enormous potential for anchoring fair trade and multiple investments.

What the Global South really needs

A good next step for The Unit would also be to set up an Advisory Board, uniting world standard stars such as Prof. Michael Hudson, Jeffrey Sachs, Yannis Varoufakis and the co-founder of the NDB Paulo Nogueira Batista Jr. (here at the Global South Academic Forum in Shanghai) .

When it comes to BRICs-emphasized de-dollarization – done with a hefty degree of sophistication, without having to spell it out – The Unit will be key. It’s also key that The Unit is not a cryptocurrency.

Wall Street behemoths – especially BlackRock – are big on cryptocurrencies, an enormously unstable set up which eschewed individual holders to the profit of massive institutional players. For example, it’s BlackRock that essentially shapes Bitcoin’s market.

US stablecoins essentially perpetuate US dollar dominance – aiming their firepower directly against possible, future digital currencies offered by BRICS+.

The Unit is the stark opposite, offering a reliable digital monetary tool for the fast advancing Multipolar World. It’s an evolution in itself, bridging the fiat and the crypto worlds; and last but not least, it is a solid foundation for the emerging post-Bretton Woods economy.

Of course the challenges ahead are huge – and The Unit will be fought tooth and nail by the usual suspects as a new concept offering borderless financial resilience for the Global South/Global Majority.

And here may lie the key takeaway: the only way BRICS+ as well as the Global Majority may be strengthened is by developing closer and closer geoeconomic, financial ties. For that, the toxic power of Western speculative capital must be contained – to the benefit of more intra-Global South commodity trading, and more investable capital for productive, sustainable development.

The potential is limitless. The Unit may well be able to unlock it. Even JP Morgan admitted The Unit is “perhaps the most thoroughly fleshed-out of de-dollarization proposals that exist in the cross-border transactions space for BRICS+.”

And there’s no other similarly effective plan anywhere in the world.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 12/05/2025 – 23:25

NY Times Sues Department Of War Over New Media Rules

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NY Times Sues Department Of War Over New Media Rules

The New York Times on Friday sued the Department of War over new rules for media outlets which restrict reporters’ movements around the Pentagon, require ID badges, and restrict the solicitation of “criminal acts” (encouraging someone to leak). 

The Pentagon in Arlington County, Virginia, on March 3, 2022. Joshua Roberts/Reuters

“The policy, in violation of the First Amendment, seeks to restrict journalists’ ability to do what journalists have always done—ask questions of government employees and gather information to report stories that take the public beyond official pronouncements,” the NYT wrote in its lawsuit which was filed in the US District Court for the District of Columbia. 

The new rules state that soliciting nonpublic information from department personnel or encouraging employees to break the law “falls outside the scope of protected newsgathering activities.” 

Journalists will also be denied press passes if they pose a safety or security risk. 

The Times and several other outlets took issue with a request from the Department of War to sign papers acknowledging that they had received, read and understood the rules – and that while they may not agree with the policies, signing the paper did not waive any legal rights.

After some outlets declined to sign the acknowledgement, the Pentagon required them to hand over their press passes, resulting in some reporters ceasing to report from the DoW. 

Meanwhile, several in the media were later granted passes who had not had them before, including National Pulse EIC Raheem Kassam. 

“Legacy media chose to self-deport from this building,” said Pentagon spokeswoman Kingsley Wilson during a Wednesday press briefing, adding ‘we’re welcoming new media outlets that actually reach Americans, ask real questions, and don’t pursue a biased agenda.“

According to the NY Times complaint, “These developments place the purpose and effect of the Policy in stark relief: to fundamentally restrict coverage of the Pentagon by independent journalists and news organizations, either by limiting what kind of information they can obtain and publish without incurring punishment, or by driving them out of the Pentagon with an unconstitutional Policy.

The new Department of War logo inside the Pentagon in Arlington, Va., on Sept. 8, 2025. Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/AFP via Getty Images

“While Plaintiffs’ enterprising reporting on the military will continue, the Pentagon’s Policy ensures the suppression of certain newsworthy information—information, for instance, gathered by directly questioning officials at press conferences or through routine unplanned interactions between journalists and Pentagon personnel on Pentagon grounds,” the outlet continued. 

Pentagon chief spox Sean Parnell told the Epoch Times; “We are aware of the New York Times lawsuit and look forward to addressing these arguments in court.” 

Tyler Durden
Fri, 12/05/2025 – 23:00