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‘Crisis Preparedness’: Dutch Move Billions In Gold Out Of US As Goldman Warns Of ‘Geographic Concentration Risk’

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‘Crisis Preparedness’: Dutch Move Billions In Gold Out Of US As Goldman Warns Of ‘Geographic Concentration Risk’

The Netherlands’ central bank transferred nearly 90 metric tons of gold bars from the United States and Canada to Britain amid growing concerns of “increasing geopolitical unrest,” according to CNBC.

“With this relocation, we have improved the tradability of our gold reserves. We expect that we will never need to use them, but we do need to strengthen our resilience and preparedness,” DNB Governor Olaf Sleijpen said of the development.

Roughly 25% of the gold reserves stored in New York and Ottawa were moved to London over the summer.

CNBC reports:

The transferred gold is now stored with the Bank of England because gold stored there must meet international trade standards and is recognized as “the world’s most easily tradable gold,” DNB said, adding that the move strengthens its “crisis preparedness.”

By contrast, DNB said the gold bars held in the U.S. and Canada could not be utilized as quickly and directly in a crisis situation.

The bank holds 30.8% of its 612.4 tons of gold reserves at its cash center in Zeist, southeast of Amsterdam.

“Keeping a larger share of the gold reserves in London strengthens the function of gold as an anchor of trust,” the Dutch central bank said.

Preparations to move the gold were not disclosed until the process was completed because it was a matter of vital public interest, Finance Minister Eelco Heinen said in a statement.

The Dutch central bank is not the first major European institution to shift gold out of the U.S. in recent years.

In 2025, France’s central bank pulled 129 metric tons of gold, then valued at $15 billion, from U.S. vaults and replaced it with newer, high-quality bullion held in Paris. At the time, Francois Villeroy de Galhau, then-governor of the Banque de France, claimed that the move was not politically motivated.

“The residual portion of the stock, amounting to 129 tonnes or 5% of the total, which was held in New York, did not meet this standard. Rather than embarking on a lengthy and risky logistical operation, the simplest solution was to sell this gold and then buy back gold of the highest standard in Europe,” the French central banker said in a statement.

“The sale of these US gold bars generated an exceptional capital gain of EUR 11 billion in 2025. This capital gain was duly recorded in the Banque de France’s accounts and therefore belongs, along with the Bank’s very sound net equity (EUR 283 billion), to all French citizens. France’s gold reserves stand at 2,437 tonnes and will remain unchanged.”

Meanwhile, advocacy groups in other major EU countries have voiced similar ambitions. Michael Jager, who heads the European Taxpayers Association, has pushed for Germany to bring its gold home, saying “Trump is unpredictable” and that the metal was “no longer safe” in the U.S., according to the New York Post.

The sums involved are substantial.

The Bundesbank holds roughly 3,350 metric tons of gold, of which 1,236 tons, roughly 37%, sit in New York.

However, Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel has dismissed the notion that the New York holdings are at risk.

“I have no doubt that the gold is safely stored at the Federal Reserve in New York,” he said in an interview with WELT earlier this year.

“Eventually, the US would hurt itself most if it were to call that legal status into question in any way and thereby put the confidence of financial markets at risk.”

The recent acceleration in geographical shifts of the location of central banks’ precious metal hordes has not been lost on Goldman Sachs who recently noted that “The location of central bank’s gold holdings appears increasingly top of mind for reserve managers.”

In an excellent note from Lina Thomas (available here in full for pro subs), she begins by noting that “the location of central bank’s gold holdings appears increasingly top of mind for reserve managers.”

The Bank of England remains the most popular custodian (preferred by 57% of reserve managers in the World Gold Council survey), with the New York Fed also important, because gold there sits in the main settlement networks and can be used for swaps, leasing, and immediate market access.

The trade-off is political risk – freezing or restricted access, as with Venezuela’s gold at the BoE in 2018.

Thomas also notes that full repatriation is not the default solution: domestic vaults are costly for smaller banks and swap one set of risks for another.

Instead, many banks are spreading holdings across jurisdictions (BoE, NY Fed, BIS, Banque de France, and increasingly China) to keep liquidity while reducing single-jurisdiction exposure.

However, amid all this location-shifting, it remains clear that central banks are anxiously holding on to (if not adding to) their gold hordes and Goldman Sachs’ NowCast puts June central-bank buying at 57 tonnes (about 100 tonnes a month on a 3-month seasonally adjusted basis, versus a pre-2022 average of 17 tonnes), with China the largest identifiable buyer.

A 32-tonne inflow of monetary gold into London looks more like a custody transfer than sales, given a 98-tonne rise in foreign official holdings at the BoE.

With all that said, Goldman maintains its $4,900/oz end-2026 forecast, assuming roughly 50 tonnes a month of official buying in 2026 and 40 tonnes in 2027, driven by EM reserve diversification after the 2022 freeze of Russia’s assets.

Gold has already rebounded about 10% from its mid-July low back above $4,400 today (near the 200DMA) as investor demand (ETFs, COMEX positioning, and options) recovered once markets scaled back Fed-hike expectations.

Professional subscribers can read Goldman’s full “Precious Comment: Gold and Central Banks: Storage Dilemma; Buying Trend Picks Up” note here at our new Marketdesk.ai portal

Tyler Durden
Thu, 09/03/2026 – 14:20

US PMI Surveys Signal Growth Rebound In Q3, Strongest Among Global Peers

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US PMI Surveys Signal Growth Rebound In Q3, Strongest Among Global Peers

Following the mixed/weak Manufacturing PMI survey data earlier in the week, today’s Services PMIs were expected to be just as mixed with S&P Global higher and ISM flat.

  • S&P Global Services PMI for August rose from 54.6 to 56.5 (below the preliminary 56.8 but still up bigly) – the highest since Dec 2024

  • ISM Services PMI for August rose from 54.1 to 55.4 (better than the 54.1 exp) – the highest since Feb 2026

These improvements come as hard data languishes…

The S&P Global US Composite PMI recorded 56.0 in August, up from 54.5 in July and pushed the index to a 52-month high. A stronger rise in services activity coincided with sustained, albeit slower growth in manufacturing. This puts the US economy ahead of the rest of the world based on survey data…

“Business activity growth across the private sector accelerated in August, marking a clear shift in gear for the US economy,” said Usamah Bhatti, Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence.

Survey data now point to GDP growing at an annualized rate of 3.0% in the third quarter, up solidly from the meagre 1.5% recorded in the previous quarter…

Alongside a renewed improvement in new business intakes, growth appears likely to continue at least in the near term.

“There was also a welcome acceleration in jobs growth during August, with employers becoming more confident across both the manufacturing and service sectors.

Job creation was commonly linked to efforts to keep pace with demand requirements, but also to prepare for future growth as concerns regarding the conflict in the Middle East started to fade.”

That said, Bhatti points out that “supply delays remained elevated, notably for manufacturers, while aggregate price pressures also stayed above their historical average.“

Growth momentum appears to have shifted from manufacturing to services, with the latter seeing the pace of expansion surge to the highest since the end of 2024.

“Manufacturing growth, meanwhile, was unchanged as both output and new orders rose at weaker rates.”

Is strong growth and elevated prices enough to trigger Warsh to pull the trigger in two weeks? Waller’s comments this morning dampened the market’s enthusiasm for a hike.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 09/03/2026 – 10:05

Dowd: Lower Yields Are Coming… And Nobody Will Like Why

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Dowd: Lower Yields Are Coming… And Nobody Will Like Why

Authored by Ed Dowd via ‘Beyond the Narrative’ substack,

On August 19th the Treasury announced it would increase the size of its nominal long-end liquidity support buybacks beginning September 9. The long end yields declined on the headline. Cue the usual chorus of X hot takes: stealth QE, yield-curve control lite, money printing etc.

The reality is much less bombastic…it is mostly a jawboning exercise.

The Treasury Is Not the Fed…The Treasury Cannot Create Money

Buybacks of this type are a recycling operation. You issue more bills and notes on the front end and you take some longer paper off the street. You can tidy up liquidity in off-the-run issues. You can send a signal that you would prefer the 30-year not print a fresh multi-decade highs on a Tuesday. What you cannot do is print reserves, expand the monetary base, or run a proper balance sheet policy the way the Federal Reserve can. Confusing the two is how people talk themselves into thinking a few billion of “liquidity support” is 2020 all over again.

The size tells the story. Coupon supply at the long end is still large. Doubling a buyback program that was already small relative to annual issuance is, at best, a band-aid. Markets gave it a day. Then they remembered the calendar. The signal from Bessent is not nothing but it is not as big as it seems in the broader picture.

Who is actually in charge of the long end of the yield curve? It is not the Fed. It is not Scott Bessent’s operations desk. It is priced by growth expectations and inflation expectations or said differently the boom/bust cycle.

Who is in charge of that? The laws of nature and God.

Bessent Will Get Lower Yields…He Won’t Like Why

Bessent will get lower long end yields eventually, however he won’t like the reasons why. That is not a shot at the man. It is a description of the cycle. You can rearrange the maturity mix. You can jawbone fiscal consolidation.

You can tell reporters that yields do not reflect fundamentals. None of that overrides a growth scare once the growth scare arrives. That reality is not what Bessent or Trump want to manifest especially before the midterm elections.

Look at China if you want the preview: bond yields collapsing because the economy is in a disinflationary grind, not because Beijing discovered a clever buyback program.

Three Pillars of Risk: Growth Scare Ahead

At Phinance Technologies we put our US economic outlook on paper in January. An Emerging slowdown with yields set to drop starting in 2026. A deflationary scare is on the horizon. The risks outlined below are not exotic.

They are the white swans sitting on the lawn.

  • Housing: Roughly 20% of GDP. Forty percent of CPI when you let the shelter component speak. Home prices still too high…call it 30% on our work. New home data has been ugly for months. Builders talking about persistent headwinds with high rates, affordability and cautious buyers. The border closing removed a bid that was quietly holding up rents and prices in a lot of metros. That floor is unwinding slowly, which is how housing always dies…not a bang…a rollover. Southeast first, then the map fills in. A frozen housing market is a frozen chunk of the real economy whether the S&P is making a high or not.

  • The AI bubble peaking: In my post on July 23rd I outlined that the AI Capex party was approaching closing time. First the private credit market is undergoing flow issues and credit stress making financing more expensive. Since that post Nvidia confirmed those issues on their recent earnings call by disclosing that their balance sheet exploded with extra commitments to suppliers and sweeter payment terms to their customers. They want to become a bank to their customers much like Lucent did in the dotcom days, which did not end well for Lucent. Second Enterprise demand is cracking with ROI skepticism and token pricing backlash. Third power constraints are hitting hard with the grid needing massive additional supply that won’t be ready in time for the proposed amount of datacenter projects announced. Finally there is open-source pricing pressure as many users are embracing cheaper models. They call them capex cycles for a reason. The order book always gets inflated near the top, credit is always the disciplinarian.

  • China entering acute phase of crisis: Factory of the world with fixed-asset investment falling, construction in contraction, real estate still working off a multi-year start collapse, and demographics that do not bottom until 2032. Contagion does not need a press conference. It eventually shows up in Asian supply chains, commodity demand, and the global credit impulse decelerating.

Bottom Line

Put those three looming risks on the table at the same time and Bessent will get lower long-end US yields. This is currently not consensus thinking but as the risks manifest themselves and the business cycle exerts its natural downturn the narrative will quickly change. The US long bond is the scoreboard and we believe soon it will begin to respond to these headwinds as we roll through the rest of the year and into the next. In hindsight the current Bessent intervention will be seen as ironic.

The Treasury is not the Fed. The Fed is not the long end. The long end is the cycle.

The signs are not hiding. They are just inconvenient for the people who need the narratives to keep the party going.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 09/03/2026 – 09:45

Iran Unleashes Fresh Attack Waves On Kuwait, UAE As Trump Signals De-escalation Ahead Of Midterms

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Iran Unleashes Fresh Attack Waves On Kuwait, UAE As Trump Signals De-escalation Ahead Of Midterms

Iran’s retaliatory attacks on US bases and the regional countries hosting them actually continued overnight into Thursday, despite CENTCOM having on Wednesday announced the cessation of the US bombing operation.

This week’s round of US attacks saw six Iranian navy personnel killed, Tasnim is reporting, with Iran’s Health Ministry stating that 18 Iranians were killed and over 140 wounded since August 30. The ministry also indicates most of the casualties were women and children, especially due to the reported US bombing of a wedding in the coastal town of Kuhestak along the Strait of Hormuz in southern Iran.  

Getty Images/People Magazine

Many of the victims’ funerals have commenced on Thursday, regional media reports. The NY Times and other Western media have been seeking to verify details amid ongoing investigations. “Dozens of guests, according to a witness and accounts in local news media, had already arrived at the Malahi family’s home and surrounding buildings in the southern city of Kuhestak to celebrate a young bride and groom,” NYT writes.

“Around 9:30 p.m. on Tuesday, the wedding was struck by a bomb that, according to a weapons expert and a visual analysis by The New York Times, had been released by American forces as they carried out intense attacks in southern Iran,” the report continues. “At least five wedding guests were killed, including a 6-year-old boy, and at least 67 other people were wounded, according to Iran’s Red Crescent Society, a humanitarian aid group.”

President Trump and his Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent have meanwhile expressed dismay over why the Iranians don’t ‘rise up’ – but rarely do populations under assault want to openly side with the country attacking them and bombing weddings, hospitals, and girls schools. This is certainly not a strategy for ‘winning over’ the population.

As for the latest military action, while Iran launched ballistic missiles and/or drones on Bahrain and Jordan on Wednesday as part of the initial salvo, the Kuwaiti government is confirming that its territory has alco come under attack Thursday:

Sirens sounded in Kuwait early Thursday, where air defenses intercepted missile and drones during a “blatant Iranian aggression,” the Ministry of Defense said on X.

Kuwait’s foreign ministry promptly condemned this the latest attack that began before dawn – slamming the flagrant violation of its sovereignty and a direct threat to its security.

“The continuation of these brazen assaults reflects a hostile approach and constitutes a dangerous escalation that threatens the security and stability of the region,” the ministry state. It added that “the attacks represented a systematic undermining of diplomatic efforts aimed at de-escalation and calm” – and said it reserves the right to respond.

Crucially, Tehran is also saying Thursday that it targeted UAE, in a rarity – though it’s unclear if there have been any impacts, or the nature of the attack wave. According to a Tasnim press release of the Iranian Army statement [machine translated]:

  • In retaliation for the blood of innocent people and the brave men of the armed forces, early this morning the Islamic Republic of Iran’s Army struck the satellite communications systems, equipment storage facilities, and fighter aircraft hangars of the U.S. military at Ahmad al-Jaber Air Base in Kuwait with missiles and attack drones.
  • These attacks caused damage to the communications systems and fighter aircraft hangars.
  • Also, as part of this powerful operation, the troop deployment areas and radar systems of the U.S. military at Al Minhad Air Base in the UAE came under attack by missiles and drones launched by the Army.
  • Ahmad al-Jaber Air Base plays a central role in the logistics and support of the U.S. military in West Asia and has a major role in the country’s aerial and surveillance operations.
  • Al Minhad Air Base is also considered one of the important centers for the logistical support and air transportation of foreign forces.
  • The response of the brave men of the Army to any attack by the terrorist U.S. military will be harsh…

UAE Strongly Condemns Hostile Iranian Attack on Kuwait, but has not initially confirmed if its own territory was hit as well

As for the Trump administration’s moves from here, or the ‘what’s next?’ – Bloomberg on Thursday states the obvious (which is a headline that might as well have been on repeat throughout the whole summer): ‘We Are Stalled’: US-Iran Conflict Stuck With No End in Sight. The below headline also hints at what could be a conflict lull ahead of midterms, now that each side perhaps ‘escalated to de-escalate’ this week…

Is Trump ending Iran war? ‘Operation Fury’ naming ends, Hegseth extends troop plan to 2027 as prez appears tired ahead of midterms

Also, Goldman Sachs Delta One Desk offers the following analysis and market angle [emphasis zh]:

The most important headline overnight may be the WSJ report that “Privately, Trump is having discussions with senior aides about whether to declare the Iran war over, U.S. officials said, noting Trump has said he favors the idea.”  Trump said, “I like our position now much better, with almost total control of the Hormuz Strait, and their economy totally collapsing.” That feels like US reflexivity becoming explicit. Oil >$90, product markets are tight, gasoline matters politically and interceptor inventories are reportedly stretched. My bias remain that this is an  escalate to de-escalate… that on the other side of Labor day there might be a different approach. Perhaps optimistically,  that makes me think we are closer to the high end than the low end of the near term energy range.

On the other side of the conflict, the Iranians have shown a keen understanding of how energy markets and the growing unpopularity of the war among the American public factor into the November midterms.

Al Jazeera highlights the view from Tehran, offering the analysis of Sultan Barakat, Professor of Public Policy at Hamad bin Khalifa University in Qatar:

“I think Iran is just holding their breath to see what happens with the midterm elections in the United States,” Barakat told Al Jazeera. “If that election goes against what Trump wishes, then you could see the president being impeached. I think the Democrats will probably ask for a halt on the war and go back to negotiation.”

While, “impeached” is a highly unlikely scenario and a bit strong in this context, Barakat pointed out that this is “major gambling on the Iranian side,” since “Trump has nothing to lose now. He can actually take actions that were not anticipated in the past, or maybe were far-fetched in the past.” Trump himself on Wednesday brushed off midterm election concerns:

Prof. Barakat continued by saying “the ultimate losers, really, are still the Gulf States” now “past six months” into the economic strain, and yet still with no unified effort or momentum “to talk directly to the Iranians to come with a solution to the current problem.”

More Latest Developments

…via Newsquawk

  • US President Trump said regarding Iran that the US is winning that one very big and controls the Hormuz Strait.
  • US Secretary of State Rubio instructed all US embassies around the world earlier this week to send an official diplomatic demarche about Operation Economic Outcast to the most senior level of their host governments, according to Axios citing US officials.
  • US Ambassador to NATO Whitaker said Iran is a bankrupt country and will not be able to pay anyone in its military, civil service or government, nor subsidise its society. He stated the people of Iran will not be happy with the current state of affairs and should blame their government and regime, adding that they should ask for change and a different way forward.
  • US Envoy Witkoff met last weekend with the UAE’s national security adviser to discuss next steps on Iran, according to Axios. The report added that “One of the officials said a special message was sent to U.S. diplomatic posts in Abu Dhabi, Muscat, Hong Kong, Doha, London, Berlin and several Central Asian capitals. The missive instructed them to demand that their host governments shut down all branches of Iran’s Melli and Saderat banks that are affiliated with the IRGC.”
  • Iran reportedly threatened the US with a large-scale attack if Israel launches an attack on the Ali al-Taher ridge in southern Lebanon, Reuters reported citing sources.
  • Iranian Chairman of the National Security and Foreign Policy Commission said the Strait of Hormuz cannot be opened without Iran’s will, IRIB reported.
  • Kuwait Army said it was repelling missile and hostile drone attacks, while local news outlets were attributing the attacks to Iranian aggression and Arab sources said the US base in Kuwait was hit by a strike with smoke reported.
  • A senior Yemeni official said Yemen’s armed forces are conducting new military drills in the Red Sea to prepare for a possible confrontation with Israel and the US, IRNA reported.
  • Military sources said clashes broke out between Yemeni government forces and Houthis in the Al-Kadha area west of Taizz, Yemen.
  • Geopolitics: Ukraine
  • Russian President Putin said that Russia and Ukraine should agree first and noted that there is an opportunity to reach a peace agreement. Putin added that contacts with the US continue, adding that Russia is in favour of restoration of relations with the US. He said US President Trump is ready for positive and constructive works and that there are contacts with Ukraine.
  • Russian President Putin said attacks on three oil refineries have been repelled, adding that Russia must respond in kind.
  • US Ambassador to NATO Whitaker said Russia’s aggressive actions, invasion of Ukraine and prior annexation of Crimea lead the US to believe that Russia can be unpredictable and could be willing to take action against a NATO country. Furthermore, he said recent statements by Russian President Putin do not leave him optimistic, while he added that Ukraine needs to be able to defend itself as long as it takes until the war can be brought to an end.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 09/03/2026 – 09:30

NVIDIA To Buy Hugging Face For $12.9 Billion

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NVIDIA To Buy Hugging Face For $12.9 Billion

Nvidia has agreed to buy AI startup Hugging Face for roughly $12.93 billion, putting the world’s most important open-model hub under the same roof as the most dominant AI chip company on the planet, according to The Wall Street Journal. 

Image via FT

CEO Jensen Huang announced the deal on Thursday, a day after NVIDIA filed that it had signed a definitive agreement. The transaction includes about $11.9 billion for Hugging Face stockholders and an equity retention package of up to $1 billion for employees who join NVIDIA. Closing is expected in the first half of 2027, pending regulatory approvals.

Huang said NVIDIA will “scale Hugging Face’s platform, strengthen its infrastructure and expand access to AI for developers and institutions worldwide.” Hugging Face, he added, “will remain an open platform for the entire AI ecosystem,” and NVIDIA compute will not be required to build or deploy on it.

Hugging Face – where people can find, publish, fine-tune, and deploy open-weight models, has over 18 million developers, researchers, and creators who have shared over 3 million models, 500,000 datasets, and one million applications. Over 200,000 companies use the platform to discover, evaluate, customize, and deploy AI, according to AIM. 

Founded in 2016 in New York by French co-founders Clément Delangue, Julien Chaumond, and Thomas Wolf, it last raised a $235 million Series D in 2023 at a $4.5 billion valuation. NVIDIA was already an investor, alongside Google, Amazon, Salesforce, AMD, Intel, IBM, and Qualcomm.

Why NVIDIA wanted it

The deal is about the distribution layer. NVIDIA already sells the GPUs most labs use to train and run models. Hugging Face is where those models live, get versioned, and get downloaded. Whoever owns that junction influences which models get used and, downstream, which hardware they run on.

That matters more as OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, and others design their own accelerators to reduce reliance on NVIDIA. Open models still need someone else’s chips. Hugging Face is where a large share of that demand originates.

Hugging Face had previously kept NVIDIA at arm’s length. Late last year it rejected a $500 million NVIDIA investment that would have valued the company at $7 billion, saying it did not want a single dominant investor that could sway decisions. Delangue has argued that concentration of power is the biggest risk in AI. This time he framed NVIDIA as a partner that would keep the platform “open, independent and compute-agnostic,” with a goal of making open source “the default way to build AI” and empowering “100 million AI builders to own their intelligence rather than rent it.”

Tyler Durden
Thu, 09/03/2026 – 09:15

Rogan To Lindsey Clancy Fans: Look At The Crime Scene

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Rogan To Lindsey Clancy Fans: Look At The Crime Scene

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity News,

Joe Rogan has had enough of the women lining up outside a Massachusetts courthouse in pink to cheer a mother who strangled her three children to death.

Sitting with comedian Brian Simpson, he refused to accept the “Free Lindsay” spectacle as a mental-health awareness campaign.

He treated it as a grotesque inversion of basic human instinct: hundreds of adults, overwhelmingly women, performing solidarity with a child murderer.

“If those ladies could see the crime scene and see those dead kids with their vacant eyes staring up because their mother took their life, the last thing that they saw was their mother standing over them, choking them to death, I don’t think they would feel so bad,” he said.

“People are out of their mind. People are showing up in support of a woman who killed her children. I don’t care how rough it was. The ability to kill your children is crazy,” Rogan further urged.

“Anyone who has kids knows how much you love them, what you would do to save them, what you do to protect them from harm,” he added.

Rogan suggested to imagine if a single father had done the same thing. “He wouldn’t get this same sympathy.” And if Lindsay Clancy is found not criminally responsible and walks, “her supporters should have to let her babysit.”

Simpson was cruder still. She went three-for-three on the strangulations, he said, then chose a sloppy method when it came time to kill herself. “Why not strangle yourself? You are definitely good at that.”

That is the conversation the country is now having while a jury of nine women and three men sits in Plymouth, unable so far to agree whether Clancy was a murderer or a woman so far gone mentally that she cannot be held responsible.

Clancy does not deny the killings. The trial is about why. The defense, led by Kevin Reddington, says postpartum psychosis, command hallucinations, and a blizzard of medications left her unable to understand the wrongfulness of what she was doing. Prosecutors say she cleared the house on purpose, acted with precision, and later built a psychosis story around a planned crime.

That is the legal fight. Outside the building it became something else: a fandom.

Hundreds of supporters, almost all women, have gathered outside Plymouth Superior Court in pink. Shirts and signs read “She Needed Help,” “Peace For Lindsay,” and “Believe.” Organizer Renee Kimball, who has no personal connection to the family, told reporters the point was to stand “in peace” for a woman she said any of them could have been.

“Any one of us who have dealt with mental health, anxiety, depression, postpartum – I think we just know that any one of us could be sitting in her chair,” Kimball said.

April Vincent, a paralegal from Rhode Island, framed it as systemic neglect: “Women are being dismissed, neglected and ignored when we speak up.”

That language has been the constant. Not “she killed three children.” She needed help. The system failed her. I could have been her.

A USA Today columnist who had raised four children under six wrote that she was “perplexed.” Millions of women endure exhaustion, pain, and the grind of early motherhood without wrapping exercise bands around a toddler’s neck.

The online version of the fandom went further than the courthouse: “I could have been Lindsay Clancy,” Substack essays, “Same, Lindsay” videos filmed with living children in frame, GoFundMe money flowing to the parents of the woman who killed their grandchildren.

Bill Maher, no one’s idea of a MAGA culture warrior, looked at the same footage and asked the question the pink shirts refuse to.

“What I don’t get is why does she have fans?” he said on his August 28 show.

“There are so many women now who are, like, outside the courthouse. It’s a little like Luigi. I understand the frustration. Don’t understand why the fans.”

He compared the courthouse crowds to the women who treat Luigi Mangione as a folk hero. Frustration with systems is one thing. Building a fan club around a person who ended three young lives is another.

Then he widened the lens: not many women kill their children, “but a lot of them are not afraid to say, ‘I don’t like being a mom.'” The Clancy trial became a permission structure for a broader, fashionable disgust with the job of mothering itself.

Rogan and Simpson arrived at the same observation from the other direction. Society always finds a softer story when the defendant is a woman. A father who strangled three children would be a monster without question. There would be no silent pink line and no Etsy “Team Lindsay” shirts.

As of Wednesday, the jury was back for a fifth day of deliberations. On Tuesday they sent Judge William Sullivan a note: after many hours they could not reach a unanimous decision. He sent them back, citing the length of the trial, more than 80 witnesses, and more than 300 exhibits.

The panel of nine women and three men has now spent the better part of four days and more than 20 hours on a case that admits the acts and argues only about criminal responsibility.

Options include first-degree murder, a lesser homicide verdict, or a finding that she lacked criminal responsibility. An NCR finding would not automatically mean she goes home. A judge can still commit her to a psychiatric facility if she is found dangerous.

Defense attorney Reddington has called the prosecution “a mess.” Prosecutors have argued this was not a woman in the throes of psychosis so complete she could not form intent: she got her husband out of the house, she completed the killings, she chose a method that worked on the children and then a method that failed on herself.

That last detail is what Simpson needled and what Rogan would not romanticize. Whatever was happening in her mind, three children are dead and a crowd showed up to make her the protagonist.

None of that requires a street festival for the person who carried out the killings.

The “I could have been her” line is the tell. It converts a specific, horrific crime into a generic female grievance. Once that conversion is made, the children become props in a story about neglected women. The father becomes a suspect in the comment section. The exercise bands become a footnote.

A society that cannot say, without a thousand caveats, that strangling your five-year-old, your three-year-old, and your baby is an evil act has lost the plot. The jury may yet hang. The women in pink already have.

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Tyler Durden
Thu, 09/03/2026 – 09:04

“Save Us From Our Traitor Gov’t”: Massive Madrid Protests Erupt Over Socialist Regime’s Handling Of Ceuta Invasion

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“Save Us From Our Traitor Gov’t”: Massive Madrid Protests Erupt Over Socialist Regime’s Handling Of Ceuta Invasion

Spain’s Ceuta border invasion has morphed into a major political headache for Socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez. Tens of thousands of Spaniards took to the streets of Madrid to protest the government’s handling of the crisis, potentially accelerating the political shift identified by Nomura analysts, who expect right-wing populist movements to gain traction across Europe during the next 18-month election cycle.

About 72,000 migrants, many reportedly military-age men, invaded the Spanish enclave from neighboring Morocco in late July. The scale and apparent coordination of the invasion raised concerns that Ceuta had been targeted through weaponized migration flows. The influx plunged the enclave, which has a population of approximately 84,000, into utter chaos for weeks.

By mid-August, a second wave of military-age men attempted to storm the Ceuta border, but that effort largely fell flat.

Although most of the migrants were quickly returned or repatriated, the surge overwhelmed local resources, left at least 90 people dead and sparked serious questions about Madrid’s open border policies. Italy’s continued border checks on arrivals from Spain further show how the Ceuta crisis is reverberating well beyond Spain’s borders.

About a month and a half after the first migrant wave, the political backlash against Sánchez and the Socialists in Madrid is mounting. AP News reported that more than 50,000 protesters demonstrated against the Socialists over the lack of border enforcement on Wednesday. 

Waving Spanish flags, demonstrators shouted, “A united Ceuta will never be defeated,” “Sánchez to prison” and “Invaders, go home!” referring to the thousands of migrants still in the city.

Reuters reported that the number of Spaniards who demonstrated against the Socialist government was closer to 80,000. The protest coincided with the annual Ceuta Day. Demonstrators waved Spanish flags and blew whistles as they chanted, “Ceuta is not for sale; Ceuta must be defended.”

One demonstrator’s sign read, “SOS. Europe, save us from our traitor government,” while some demanded that authorities “expel the invaders” and others called for Sánchez to resign.

“The response has been inadequate, late and, to top it all, has involved a complete dereliction of duty on the part of the government. We cannot be second-class citizens, and our border must not be sidelined,” said David Hernandez, a 45-year-old teacher who demonstrated yesterday.

Sánchez told lawmakers on Thursday that there was no evidence that the border invasion had been orchestrated or carried out by Moroccan authorities.

“I can assure you that no institution, not the diplomatic service, the European Commission or any international body, has provided the Spanish government with any solid evidence that Morocco planned or carried out the incident. None whatsoever,” Sánchez said.

The growing outrage against Sánchez and the Socialists in Madrid only builds on the expanding backlash across Europe. Nomura analyst Andrzej Szczepaniak now expects right-wing parties to make significant gains across Germany, France, Spain, Switzerland and the UK over the next 18 months.

The right-wing Alternative for Germany is poised to win Germany’s Saxony-Anhalt election this Sunday, while other polling data show that Marine Le Pen has a good chance of winning the French election next year.

The blowback against left-wing governments in Europe has also been spreading like wildfire across South America. Right-wing Sen. Flávio Bolsonaro is neck and neck with Socialist President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva ahead of next month’s election. Much of South America has already rejected socialism, including in Colombia’s recent presidential election, which ushered in a Trump-backed president.

By mid-2026, South America had already flipped. Argentina under Milei, Chile under Kast, Colombia under de la Espriella, Peru under Keiko Fujimori, Ecuador under Noboa, Bolivia under Paz and Paraguay under Peña all sit on the political right.

The larger theme is that nation-killing socialism is being rejected.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 09/03/2026 – 07:20

President’s Party Up Against Poor Odds In The Midterms

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President’s Party Up Against Poor Odds In The Midterms

The Republican Party is controlling the House, the Senate and the presidency at the moment, but the midterm elections coming up at in November have the power to change this Status Quo.

Congressional and presidential approval are near all-time lows as the Trump administration’s wars are proving unpopular, but the party is also up against a historical precedent at the same time: The president’s party rarely does well in the midterms.

As Statista’s Katharina Buchholz reports, using data by The American Presidency Project, there are only two presidents of the modern age who could expand their party’s showing in both chambers in the midterms or at least not lose ground: Bill Clinton during his second term and George W. Bush during his first, when he managed to flip the Senate in his favor while holding on to the House just one year after 9/11. Against these few success stories stands a long line of defeats.

Infographic: President’s Party up Against Poor Odds in the Midterms | Statista

You will find more infographics at Statista

President Donald Trump himself is no stranger to this. During his first term from 2017 to 2020, the Republican Party lost 41 House seats in the midterms, among the top 5 highest midterms losses since the 1960s. This lost the party control of the chamber, while it gained two seats in the Senate, holding on to it. Trump’s predecessor and successor, Joe Biden, fared similar in 2022. The Democrats lost only 9 House seats then, but with the same outcome (they also kept the Senate).

Similarly, back in 2010, Barack Obama lost control of the House just two years into his eight-year term and suffered another major setback in his second midterms when he lost the Senate as well. Bill Clinton in 1994 lost control of both chambers of Congress by the middle of his first term and never won them back in the six years that followed despite the gains he made in his second midterm election. After George W. Bush’s successful first midterms, debacle followed four years later as he lost both chambers in 2006 amid fall-out from Hurricane Katrina and the war in Iraq.

While the proof of midterm losses for sitting presidents is resounding, the reasons behind them are more muddled.

Nobody really knows why the midterms are so hard for incumbents irrespective of the political climate. Depending on how a president is perceived by his voters, he could be hit by either apathy or disappointment.

Other than 9/11, which helped George W. Bush succeed, other national crises have not proven a good predictor for midterms success, which leave two more possible culprits: presidential approval and the state of the economy. Both will likely not work in Trump’s favor come November.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 09/03/2026 – 06:55

Ukraine’s Drone Warfare Devouring 4% Of Global Germanium Demand As China Chokes Supplies

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Ukraine’s Drone Warfare Devouring 4% Of Global Germanium Demand As China Chokes Supplies

Our coverage of rare earths dates back to President Trump’s first trade war, when we warned that “Rare Earths Are China’s Most Potent Weapon In A Trade War.”

What followed was predictable. During the 2025 trade war, Beijing steadily tightened its control over exports of gallium, germanium, antimony, tungsten and a growing list of other critical industrial metals to the West and its allies. These restrictions represent another weapon in Beijing’s economic-warfare toolkit, aimed squarely at the most vulnerable chokepoints in Western defense, semiconductor and advanced-manufacturing supply chains.

The latest signals suggest that bilateral tensions are once again deteriorating. China was the sole G20 holdout on language addressing trade imbalances and an unsustainable export-oriented economic model, while Treasury has widened its Iran sanctions campaign to include Chinese entities, refiners and shipping networks.

The response from the Trump administration and other Western governments has been to accelerate efforts to restart dormant mines, expand processing capacity and build critical minerals supply chains outside Beijing’s control.

Our coverage of this trade began with an April 2024 note titled “Next Big Mineral Trade Revealed By Morgan Stanley,” which identified MP Materials as one of the miners best positioned to benefit from the Trump-era push to restore domestic critical material supply chains.

By early July 2025, we again highlighted MP Materials as one of the clearest stocks for positioning around this decoupling theme. Just weeks later, shares of the rare earth miner surged from around $30 toward triple-digit territory.

Wall Street may not fully recognize the decoupling theme until regulatory restrictions translate into physical shortages. Some analysts are beginning to understand the grim outlook facing the West. But Beijing does not need to announce a formal trade embargo to shock markets into a crisis. Slowing export approvals, restricting volumes, or denying shipments to select end users have already made it clear that the West must rebuild critical supply chains outside China, either domestically or through friend-shoring.

Another indication that Western critical material supply chains could become a major decoupling theme for Wall Street is the emerging global rearmament cycle.

BMO analyst George Heppel noted that the Russia-Ukraine war is expected to account for more than 4% of global germanium demand this year, with an estimated 15 million drones set to be deployed in an environment where China has weaponized critical materials supply chains, given its control of much of the space. 

“With a staggering 15 million drones estimated to be deployed in the Russia-Ukraine war this year, it is safe to say that the world has entered the era of mass drone warfare,” Heppel said.

Heppel explained: “Our analysis suggests that gallium, germanium and NdFeB magnets are the most important enablers of drone warfare, with gallium and germanium (alongside heavy rare earths) also being vital components required for counterdrone systems.”

“Consequently, we expect gallium, germanium and rare earth supply security to continue to be a major priority in the West in the face of this growing threat,” he added.

Heppel said the massive deployment of drones has opened a new front in the global scramble for germanium, gallium and rare earth magnets. These critical materials are used throughout the drone and counter-drone parts ecosystem, including in systems designed to detect, track, jam and destroy one-way attack drones.

The numbers surrounding drone-driven demand for critical materials are staggering:

  • Drones now account for more than 80% of enemy targets destroyed by Ukrainian forces.
  • Governments and military alliances have pledged roughly $150 billion for drone and counter-drone capabilities since 2025.
  • About one-third of that planned spending is directed toward counter-drone systems.
  • Drone warfare could consume 4.3% of global germanium demand this year.

Heppel said this is only the beginning of a “high-volume, high-precision” era of warfare that combines industrial-scale drone production with precision-strike capabilities. The transition in warfare technology is making militaries increasingly dependent on these obscure metals, much of whose production and processing is controlled by China. That represents a major vulnerability for the West.

Heppel estimates that the average FPV drone contains 46 grams of neodymium-iron-boron magnet material, 0.1 gram of gallium and 1 gram of germanium. Across 15 million drones, this translates into annual battlefield demand of roughly:

  • 690 metric tons of NdFeB magnets
  • 1.5 tons of gallium
  • 15 tons of germanium

Global germanium demand was estimated at just 343 tons in 2025, meaning the Russia-Ukraine battlefield could consume more than 4% of worldwide supply this year. That source of demand did not exist before the war. 

The Squeeze On Prices…

Germanium is used in thermal-imaging lenses and in the fiber-optic cables attached to tethered one-way attack drones.

China’s grip on germanium supply is becoming increasingly alarming (read here) as the US and allied governments commit an estimated $150 billion to drone and counter-drone capabilities.

Heppel told clients that several publicly traded companies offer exposure to the critical minerals theme:

  1. MP Materials (MP-NYSE; $54.75; Outperform rated by Max Yerrill and Raj Ray) stands out for its NdPr magnet materials business, production of strategic rare earths such as samarium and gadolinium, and efforts to support drone manufacturing through Project Swarm.
  2. Neo Performance Materials (NEO-TSX; $31.38; Outperform rated) provides downstream exposure through rare earth separation, magnet production and refined gallium products.
  3. Energy Fuels (UUUU-NYSE; $14.75; Outperform rated) offers leverage to the redevelopment of a domestic US rare earth supply chain.
  4. For gallium, Rio Tinto (RIO-LSE; £76.74; Outperform rated) and Alcoa (AA-NYSE; $49.95; Market Perform rated) are emerging as prospective Western suppliers, although gallium is unlikely to become a major revenue driver for either company.
  5. For germanium, Teck Resources (TECK.B-TSX; $94.51; Restricted) remains a key non-Chinese producer and is evaluating a capacity expansion. Ivanhoe Mines (IVN-TSX; $12.11; Outperform rated) provides indirect exposure through the germanium- and gallium-bearing Kipushi deposit and its potential role in future US critical-mineral supply chains.

“As a result, we expect drone and counterdrone technologies to become another important driver of government efforts to secure domestic production, strengthen processing capacity, and reduce dependence on vulnerable foreign supply chains,” Heppel explained.

We have already highlighted Piper Sandler’s coverage of LightPath Technologies, whose germanium-free infrared materials offer a synthetic alternative for the West as Chinese export restrictions tighten the global germanium market.

Beyond the critical materials covered by Heppel, Jefferies analysts initiated coverage on several critical minerals companies earlier Wednesday, including Almonty Industries. Jefferies assigned Almonty a “Buy” rating, highlighting the miner’s direct public-market exposure to Western tungsten supply. 

Read more here.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 09/03/2026 – 05:45

EU’s Kallas Says No Progress On Zelensky’s Cash Infusion For Patriot Missiles

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EU’s Kallas Says No Progress On Zelensky’s Cash Infusion For Patriot Missiles

On Wednesday EU leadership revealed that the Zelensky government has formally asked the European Commission to provide several billion euros from the EU’s €90 billion ($105 billion) support loan to purchase US-made Patriot air defense missiles.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced just ahead of a meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, “It is worth several billion euros and would cover Ukraine’s air defense needs, including high-end PAC-3 air defense systems.”

via EU Council

At the same time, the EU’s top foreign affairs official, Kaja Kallas, is coming off a meeting of the bloc’s defense ministers wherein she cited no progress made on the Patriot funding plan.

“There were calls and talks about these missiles but there was, unfortunately, no concrete success today regarding this,” the EU top diplomat had spelled out Tuesday. “Patriot missiles about to expire [by Nato standards] should be sent to Ukraine.”

Looking back further, the last time that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was in the White House, he pleaded with President Trump for a “winter package” of 300 Patriot missiles. 

Zelensky has long been warning that cities remain largely unprotected against Russia’s more advanced ballistic missile arsenal – a problem that only mass supplies of Patriots can remedy.

Ukraine’s supply have run dry, with batteries sitting in some locations, unable to be fired.

In mid-August, here’s what a CNN team observed on the ground in Ukraine:

CNN was the first media outlet to be given access to a Patriot on Ukrainian territory so Ukrainian officials could reveal one fact: the country has pretty much run out of interceptors. CNN agreed not to reveal details of the Patriot model or its location.

The 16 tubes of the system that CNN saw show signs of regular use, but its chief engineer in Ukraine, who gave only his first name Dmytro for security reasons, said he had not seen a Patriot launcher fire for six weeks. Ukraine has been reluctant to specify exactly how many interceptors, if any, it has left – President Volodymyr Zelensky says the country needs 5% of the US stockpile to survive the winter, but currently only has 1%.

There have notoriously been immense backlogs when it comes to Patriot production, and there’s said to be great global demand among US allies, especially given depletions which have come as a result of the Iran war.

Taking it back? Trump earlier talked about giving Ukraine a license to make Patriot systems…

Trump had announced in July that Washington would give Ukraine “the right to make Patriots” – after Zelensky had for at least six months been relentless in requesting this, framing it as urgent and for the protection of cities and civilians. But such local production would take years to tool and set up, with the reality of a nightly air war making the prospect daunting.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 09/03/2026 – 04:15