Trump Cites Progress In Dealing With ‘More Reasonable Regime’ – While Mulling Ground Operation To Seize Uranium
Summary
Iran rejects ‘excessive, illogical’ US demands whileTrump mentions ‘progress’ with a ‘more reasonable regime’. Trump again threatens to destroy Iran energy sites and Kharg Island.
White House seriously considering ground operation to seize Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile but also wants Tehran to negotiate handing it over willingly.
Bazan oil refinery in Israel’s northern city of Haifa is on fire after a second apparent Iranian missile strike of the war.
Iran accuses Israel of more ‘false flags’ – after Kuwait water desalination plant hit.
Iran Again Rejects ‘Excessive’ Demands
Iran has once again stated that it has rejected the latest “US demands” as “excessive and illogical” according to state Tasnim, also confirming that it did not participate in the weekend Pakistan-hosted summit attended by the foreign ministers of Turkey, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Egypt.
“We have never had any direct negotiations with the United States. What has been raised are messages received through intermediaries indicating the US desire to negotiate,” Foreign Ministry Spokesman Esmail Baghaei said in a press conference Monday. Meanwhile Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar is expected in China on Tuesday for talks with his Chinese counterpart, after Beijing made clear it is ready to back a Pakistan-mediated peace effort.
Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi has urged President Trump to end the war, saying Washington holds the key here to stopping a worse spiral. “I tell President Trump: Nobody can stop the war in our region in the Gulf but you,” Sisi stated at the opening of the country’s Egypes energy conference. Still, despite Tehran’s latest statement of rejection, Trump put out of a fresh Monday Truth Social Post displaying some optimism toward dealing with a “more reasonable regime” and mentioned “great progress” – but coupled with the usual ‘or else’ type threats. For example, Trump again has threatened to destroy Iran energy sites and Kharg Island.
Over the weekend Trump had said to reporters aboard Air Force One, “The one regime was decimated, destroyed, they’re all dead. The next regime is mostly dead, and the third regime – we’re dealing with different people than anybody’s dealt with before… and frankly, they’ve been very reasonable.”
Plan For Uranium Seizure
With more Marines and reportedly Airborne troops en route to the region, among Trump’s ‘options’ is the seizure of Iran’s enriched uranium. A fresh Wall Street Journal report says Monday, “President Trump is weighing a military operation to extract nearly 1,000 pounds of uranium from Iran, according to U.S. officials, a complex and risky mission that would likely put American forces inside the country for days or longer.”
No decision has been made, the report makes clear, and the White House is said to be considering the danger to US troops. On this question, the likelihood for something to ‘go wrong’ – or some kind of mass casualty event for American forces, would be high. This would also open the possibility of forces getting bogged down for at least weeks, months, or longer – and not just ‘days’ of an operation.
“It’s the job of the Pentagon to make preparations in order to give the commander-in-chief maximum optionality. It does not mean the president has made a decision,” White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt has sought to clarify of plans.
Unbelievable video
filmed by a resident from Tehran shows the reality of life under Israeli/US strikes
One key part of the WSJ report gives a window into where future negotiations would focus: “The president has also encouraged his advisers to press Iran to agree to surrender the material as a condition for ending the war, according to a person familiar with Trump’s thinking,” the report says. “Trump has been clear in conversations with political allies that the Iranians can’t keep the material, and he has discussed seizing it by force if Iran won’t give it up at the negotiating table.” But already Tehran sees itself in an existential war for survival, and so isn’t going to be very open to just giving up its enriched stockpiles.
Israeli Oil Refinery on Fire
Huge fires have been observed at the Bazan oil refinery in Israel’s northern city of Haifa, after another apparent Iranian attack, which marks the second such hit on the site since the war started.
Israeli television channels have reported the attack and emergency response at the scene. “Search and rescue forces, both reserve and regular forces, are on their way to a site in northern Israel where reports of impact have been received,” the IDF said in a statement.
Area residents are being asked to stay inside and shelter in place, with Jerusalem Post reporting “The Environmental Protection Ministry told Ma’ariv that a gasoline tank is burning in the refinery complex, producing thick smoke, but with no risk to the population in the area from a hazardous materials incident.”
Smoke rising from Haifa’s Petrochemical complex following reported Iranian missile strike.
BREAKING:
Smoke rising from Haifa’s Petrochemical complex following reported Iranian missile strike. pic.twitter.com/iXlQn41Ohp
There’s been another interesting accusation that Israel is conducing false flags to make any potential ceasefire deal much harder. It’s remained an open question whether things will escalate toward an all-out exchange of fire on infrastructure, such as energy sites and water plants.
Iran’s military has newly accused Israel of attacking Kuwait’s desalination plant, according to Al Jazeera. The Iranian statement, featured in semi-official Tasnim agency, said the “Zionist regime’s brutal attack on Kuwait’s desalination plant, under the pretext of accusing the Islamic Republic of Iran, which took place in the past few hours, is a sign of the vileness and baseness of the Zionist occupiers.”
Indian worker killed in attack on Kuwait plant…
Kuwait says an Indian worker has been killed in an Iranian attack on a power and desalination plant, as Gulf states report intercepting drones and missiles.
“We declare that American bases and military personnel, their interests in the region, and the military, security, and economic infrastructure and facilities of the Zionist regime will continue to be our powerful targets,” it said. There’s also a lingering threat against American university branch campuses in the region, after over the weekend two Iranian campuses in Tehran came under attack. Iran had earlier said the long-range attacks (which failed) against the UK’s remote Diego Garcia base was also a false flag.
China Flexes Robot Wolves With Machine Guns And A “Collective Brain”
Four years of hyperdevelopment, battlefield testing, and deployment of FPVs, ground robots, AI-enabled kill chains, and soon humanoid robots have permanently altered the course of the modern battlefield, as war technologies once viewed as 2030s-era weapons are being pulled forward into the present day and are now proliferating across battlefields stretching from the Eastern European theater to the Gulf theater, as Eurasia appears to be at war.
The latest reminder is that, regardless of the battlefield across Eurasia, there will increasingly be large swaths of land, miles deep, effectively forming a new kind of no-man’s-land controlled by FPVs and ground robots operating with AI kill chains. In Ukraine, that no-go zone stretches 15 miles wide and already means a quick death for any biological soldier, with FPVs able to detect, track, and strike.
A new form of attritional warfare is emerging in which FPVs and robots are cheap and disposable, while soldiers are mainly exposed only when they have to hold, clear, or occupy terrain.
China occasionally likes to flex its dual-use robotic ground systems, with the latest footage showing quadruped machines that act as “robot wolves” with machine guns mounted on top, being trained for street battles.
X account “Sinical” posted the viral footage, viewed 2 million times in just a few short days, that shows several new developments in China’s race to weaponize robot dogs:
Heavier loadouts: can be equipped with micro-missiles, grenade launchers, and more
Strong mobility: carries up to 25 kg and clears 30 cm obstacles with ease
“collective brain”: real-time data sharing enables them to coordinate, decide, and act together
First footage just dropped: China’s robot wolves have been put through a simulated street battle.
You might remember their debut at China’s V-Day parade last year. It seems that they are no longer a showpiece.
The system comes from the Southwest Automation Institute, an organization with longstanding People’s Liberation Army ties. Developers call it 100% indigenously designed and 100% domestically produced. What’s interesting is that, the institute is openly listing a “non-military version” on http://JD.com—one of China’s biggest e-commerce platforms—for $73.5k. However, how closely it matches the military-grade model is unclear.
Here’s the counterintuitive fact: on tomorrow’s battlefields, war robots may not be the ultimate killing machines—they could actually reduce casualties. They spare human troops the need to storm positions directly, pushing more engagements into “drone v.s. robot” territory. And unlike two groups of soldiers grinding each other down in brutal close-quarters fighting, troops facing robots know the machines cannot be outfought. A handful of robots can clear and secure an entire street in minutes. The clash ends fast, and both sides bleed far less.
The real battlefield is far more complex than any training exercise. The ultimate test for these Machine Wolves will be whether they can reliably distinguish friendly troops from enemy forces—and, most critically, identify civilians who suddenly appear in the chaos.
To sum it all up, the battlefields across Eurasia are becoming machine-on-machine conflicts, with humans operating farther back on second and or third lines (or maybe even remotely overseas), if at all.
This year is another record year for the conversion of office buildings into residential apartments in the United States, according to a recent RentCafe report.
At the beginning of 2026, 90,300 apartments were in the process of conversion across America—a 28 percent increase from 70,600 last year, according to the March 24 report.
At 47 percent, office conversions now comprise almost half of all adaptive reuse projects nationwide, with the New York metro area leading the way with 16,358 conversions in the pipeline. Washington, D.C., placed second with 8,479 conversions and Chicago third, with 4,360.
“The imbalance in the office sector didn’t emerge overnight,” Yardi research director Peter Kolaczynski said in the report.
“COVID-19 is to the office market what eCommerce was to retail. As a result, there is simply too much office space in the market right now.”
Yardi Matrix is a sister company to RentCafe and provides market research and data for the residential and commercial real estate markets.
Office-to-apartment conversions have expanded rapidly since 2022, when just 23,100 units nationwide were created from former commercial buildings. That number nearly doubled to 45,200 conversions in 2024, and rose to 55,300 in 2024.
In early 2025, the report indicated 70,700 conversions were on tap, as the national office vacancy rate was close to 20 percent. Meanwhile, physical occupancy in many buildings remained between only 50 percent and 55 percent, leaving millions of square feet underused.
Doug Ressler, senior analyst with Yardi Matrix, noted that financial pressure and government-backed incentives are also escalating conversions this year. Nearly one-third of U.S. office loans are set to mature in 2027, and many owners are facing pressure to take action on any underperforming properties.
“A massive amount of office building loans—over $213 billion—are coming due by the end of 2026. When loans mature, borrowers need to either pay them off or refinance them,” he said in the report.
“The problem is that many of these office buildings have lost significant value largely due to remote work trends reducing demand.”
Still, these types of conversions often take several years to complete, as the process can be slowed by structural issues, high construction costs, financing needs, or local regulations.
Ressler said nearly 66,500 projects started in 2025 are still moving forward in 2026. When combined with newly proposed projects, the total number is up by 19,600 units year over year.
Nationwide, office buildings account for the largest share of reuse, at 47 percent, followed by hotel conversions at 18 percent, industrial properties at 16 percent, and a mixed bag of properties—including former schools, retail centers, health care facilities, and government buildings, at 19 percent.
Nationally, more than 1.9 billion square feet of office space—24 percent of total inventory—is considered suitable for conversion, according to the conversion feasibility index from CommercialEdge.
“Age matters, but so do footprint and structural layout,” Kolaczynski added.
“ If a building is functionally obsolete as an office but has the right bones, it can be a strong conversion candidate.”
Other key ingredients for conversion consideration are proximity to mass transit and walkability to stores, restaurants, and parks.
The war in Iran has driven up oil prices in many countries, with gasoline prices turning into a topic of discussion around the world.
The increases have been particularly pronounced in emerging markets, with gasoline prices jumping by more than 50 percent in the Philippines and nearly as much in Nigeria (around 49 percent), with diesel rising even more steeply.
Advanced economies have also seen notable increases, with gasoline prices climbing by roughly 25 to 30 percent in the United States and Canada over the period, and diesel prices up by around 40 percent in both countries.
Across Europe, price hikes have been more moderate but still significant, with gasoline rising by around 17 percent in France and Germany, while diesel (more directly linked to global trade and transport) saw stronger increases of up to 30 percent.
In Asia, the picture is more mixed, with relatively limited increases in China, South Korea and Japan (from 2.5 to 10 percent for gasoline), reflecting in part the use of price controls and other government measures to cushion the impact of rising global oil prices.
However, as taxes are making up a big chunk of the gas price in the majority of industrialized nations, countries taxing gasoline at lower rates will still see lower gas prices in comparison.
One example of this is the United States.
As Statista’s Katharina Buchholz points out, even at a gas price of around $4.29 per gallon on average, Americans are still paying much less to fill up their cars than people in many industrialized nations, including other car-based economies like Australia or Canada.
Europe has some of the highest gasoline prices in the world. Most of Western Europe was paying upwards of $7.00 for a gallon of gas as of March 23, with some of the highest prices being charged in Norway, Denmark and the Netherlands.
Germany was the most expensive major European economy in terms of gas prices most recently, as a gallon was going for $9.07. Norway is an outlier among oil producing countries as it taxes gasoline at a premium. The country bases a lot of its wealth on oil but has for many years pursued a plan to make its own economy independent of the fossil fuel.
Other oil producers have gone the opposite route, offering gasoline to its citizens for less than the price of bottled water.
The most drastic examples for this are Venezuela, Libya and Iran itself, where gasoline only costs a couple of cents per gallon.
The most expensive gallon of gas included in the ranking, however, was being sold in Hong Kong at $15.37, which would typically cause filling up even a small car to break the $100 barrier. Eastern Asia was the priciest part of the world for gas after Europe, with prices high in China, South Korea, the Philippines, Cambodia, Laos and Thailand – all of which are major oil consumers, but not producers. Deep pockets are also needed in a few countries where weak government or trade structures have led to a hike in prices, like in the Central African Republic, Zimbabwe and Malawi.
World regions with cheap gas prices included North Africa and the Middle East as well as in Central Asia and Russia. In Algeria, for example, gas costs only around $1.34 per gallon, while in Russia, the price was approximately $3.16.
Europe’s ruling class has spent decades importing chaos under the banner of “diversity,” and now the bill is coming due in the most explosive way possible.
A major conference held inside the European Parliament has heard stark warnings that the continent is barreling toward civil war as mass migration erodes trust, creates no-go zones, and fractures societies along ethnic lines.
Professor David Betz of King’s College London cut straight to the point, telling the assembled lawmakers and experts: “Europe is on track for civil war”.
European Parliament Hosts “Civil War? Europe at Risk” Conference Amid Rising Social Tensions
MEPs Mikael Weimers and Marion Maréchal convene experts warning that eroding social cohesion from mass immigration could push Europe toward civil conflict, with Prof. David Betz… pic.twitter.com/80RUypdOqB
The event, titled Civil War: Europe at Risk?, was hosted by French populist-right leader Marion Maréchal and Sweden Democrats MEP Charlie Weimers.
It also launched a new report documenting up to a thousand no-go zones across Europe based on public data including crime rates, sexual violence, youth gangs, unemployment, school performance, antisemitism, homophobia, mosque density, attacks on firefighters, and NGO presence.
Maréchal opened the conference by reflecting that formerly peaceful and stable societies are “rapidly transforming before our eyes into societies of violence and mistrust”, stating that “the main basis of trust between citizens is cultural homogeneity”, which is now fast eroding.
She warned Europe is already under a great strain of “diffuse guerrilla activity”, which takes various forms, including “riots, looting, random attacks, anti-white racism, and terrorist attacks”.
Weimers echoed the assessment, noting the impact of mass migration on cultural cohesion. The Swedish MEP reflected: “Western democracies that were once relatively homogenous societies have become deeply fragmented. Newcomers often share little in common with the indigenous population. More alarmingly, many have no intention of assimilating.”
Both hosts said they were driven to hold the conference to find political answers and prevent “the horror of civil war”.
Betz, who has gained prominence for highlighting the collapse of social cohesion, described the trajectory in chilling detail. He warned of “a peasant revolt. A conservative uprising in which the ruled seek to punish their rulers for violating their obligations under the social contract, and for changing the rules of the game against their wishes. It will look something like Italy’s Years of Lead, the ‘dirty wars’ of Latin America, or maybe The Troubles of Northern Ireland, but on a larger scale.”
He continued: “What is already a guarded society will become a radically more heavily fortified society as elites seek more protection with more walls, guards, and surveillance. It will be bloody… the Balkanisation of British life along ethnic lines [is underway].”
Betz further urged, “What I call assortative movement is already occurring, quite obviously in some places like Tower Hamlets in London, Sparkhill in Birmingham which are already ethnic enclaves, zones of negotiated policing with parallel legal systems, alternative economies, and… zones of endemic and large-scale out-group sexual predation… this ought to be more generally frightening.”
“In government there are plenty of people who understand fully the gravity of the situation, although it is, career-wise, terminal to speak of it openly,” he added.
Betz also warned of the ultimate stakes for native populations. “Where does Balkanisation lead us? … it leads to the extinguishment of Britain in the sense of a coherent cultural entity dominated by people genuinely sharing the titular identity of ‘British’… it leads to large scale and widespread civil war…”
“It is very possible that the Britons end up like the Canaanites or the Arcadians, a people of historic interest, their monuments visible here and there in some sort of ruination, of interest to archaeologists and historians,” Betz explained, adding “This would be a tragedy, but that is a very viable option in front of us, and in fact it is a possibility that is quite close.”
Weimers asked bluntly: “Where will Europe be in 50 years? Will there be a Europe in 50 years?”
Betz further outlined how any future conflict might unfold, describing “the siege of urban areas but with a few 21st century twists. In many ways it will be reminiscent of the siege of Sarajevo, but much more dominated by paramilitary actors using system disruption tactics. Most importantly, infrastructure attack to degrade and destroy the life support systems of urban, non-native enclaves.”
He continued, “The political object is very simple, it is to compel non-natives to leave. The strategy is to create conditions of life in the cities so intolerable that leaving is preferable to staying… it’s not an implausible theory of victory because its central premise, the instability of the modern urban condition, at the best of times is something scholars of urban studies have been warning against for 50 years already.”
Betz warned that “fuel systems are easy to attack, they are flammable if not explosive by definition, they are difficult to repair, and expensive to replace. In fact they are impossible to replace in civil war conditions where no insurance is available.”
He continued, “Moreover, disruption of fuel has very rapid knock-on effects of everything else logistically, most importantly the food distribution system which is the traditional weapon of siegecraft.”
The full conference is below:
Betz has continually warned of the deep social erosion he’s believes is cascading toward civil war in Britain and Europe.
Retired British Army Colonel Richard Kemp has also warned that integration breakdowns have worsened over the past two decades, paving the way for inevitable conflict.
Kemp outlined that there is “No government, the government now or any prospective government of the UK, has the guts to stop it” when it comes to the Islamification of Britain.
The pattern is unmistakable. Globalist policies of open borders and elite denial have created parallel societies, eroded national identity, and left ordinary Europeans with no peaceful political outlet.
As Betz has noted, many in government already grasp the gravity but stay silent to protect their careers.
As educational as this all is, Europe doesn’t need more conferences or reports. It needs leaders with the courage to end mass migration, restore cultural cohesion, and put their own people first — before the warnings stop being theoretical and the conflict becomes reality.
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UAE Unveils Jet-Powered Kamikaze Drone As War Gets A Lot Scarier
UAE state-backed defense company EDGE Group has released footage on X, unveiling a new low-cost, jet-powered kamikaze drone, the latest signal that the hyperdevelopment of drone warfare is accelerating.
EDGE Group unveiled the Shadow 25, a jet-powered loitering munition described as a rapid-strike system designed to deliver precision attacks against fixed targets.
Shadow 25 can reach speeds in excess of 650 mph, about 5.42 times faster than the Iranian Shahed-136 drone. It has a range of 155 miles, which EDGE says offers “new opportunities to swiftly neutralize stationary enemy targets.”
Capability built for modern operations.
Combining jet-powered speed, advanced guidance, and precision targeting, SHADOW 25 supports forces with rapid, reliable, mission-ready performance when it matters most. pic.twitter.com/yaEessVgTZ
EDGE is one of the UAE’s top national defense companies, developing, manufacturing, and supporting military and security products and services, including autonomous systems, missiles, naval platforms, electronic warfare, and radar systems.
Company Structure (data via Sayari):
Corporate Network (data via Sayari):
EDGE has also been expanding its industrial footprint and international partnerships. In 2025, it said it operated more than 170 manufacturing and assembly facilities across the UAE.
Our takeaway is that after four years of hyperdevelopment in drone warfare across Ukraine, the US-Iran conflict now appears poised to unleash an evolutionary leap in drone warfare. The next phase is likely to be defined by fast strike drones and more advanced AI-enabled targeting, further compressing the kill chain and deepening battlefield automation. Across Eurasia, war is spreading, from Ukraine to the Gulf.
BREAKING: The nitrogen trap just closed. Three locks snapped shut simultaneously. The planting window is closing behind them. And the food the world eats next year is now being decided by molecules that cannot reach the soil in time.
Lock one: the Strait of Hormuz. The IRGC permissioned corridor allows oil tankers from friendly nations to pay $2 million in yuan and pass. It does not allow fertiliser vessels to pass at any price. Zero approved fertiliser transits in 24 days. The Gulf supplies 49 percent of the world’s exported urea and roughly 30 percent of traded ammonia. That supply is not delayed. It is denied. The gate opens for molecules that fund the gatekeeper. It stays closed for molecules that feed the planet.
Lock two: Russia. The world’s largest exporter of ammonium nitrate just halted all AN exports until after April 21. Three to four million tonnes per year, gone from global markets at the exact moment the Northern Hemisphere needs it most. The official reason is “domestic priority.” The strategic effect is leverage. Russia earns windfall revenue from the oil price spike its ally’s war created, then removes the fertiliser that farmers need to plant through the crisis. The disease and the cure, again, from the same address.
Lock three: China. Beijing has banned exports of nitrogen-potassium blends and phosphate fertilisers through August 2026. China is the world’s largest phosphate producer and a major nitrogen supplier. The ban removes the last alternative source that could have compensated for Hormuz and Russia. Three locks. Three countries. Three deliberate decisions timed to the same biological calendar.
The biological calendar does not negotiate. Corn requires nitrogen at the V6 to VT growth stage or kernel set is permanently reduced. Wheat requires it at tillering and jointing or grain fill collapses. Rice requires it at transplanting or yield drops 20 to 40 percent in low-input systems. These are not economic models. They are cellular processes. The plant either receives nitrogen during the window or it does not. If it does not, no subsequent application, no price increase, no policy reversal can recover what was lost. The damage is written into the biology of the seed.
The US Corn Belt window closes mid-April. European top-dressing is happening now. Indian Kharif preparation begins in May. Bangladeshi Boro rice transplanting is underway this week. Every one of these windows is closing while the three largest sources of nitrogen on Earth are simultaneously locked: Hormuz by military blockade, Russia by export decree, China by trade ban.
The USDA Prospective Plantings report arrives March 31. The FAO Food Price Index publishes April 3. These will quantify what the molecules already know: the nitrogen did not arrive. The yield loss is locked in. The 5 to 10 percent global drag will concentrate where the buffers are thinnest: subsistence farms in Bangladesh, Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, where a 20 percent shortfall does not mean lower profits. It means hunger.
Sri Lanka banned synthetic fertiliser in 2021. Rice yields collapsed 40 percent. The government fell. In 2008, fertiliser and oil spiked simultaneously and food riots erupted across 30 countries. In 2026, the strait blocks fertiliser while Russia and China withdraw the alternatives, and the planting windows close on a planet with nowhere else to turn.
The war is fought with missiles. The famine is fought with molecules. The molecules are trapped behind three locks on three continents, timed to the one calendar that cannot be paused, extended, or negotiated: the calendar written into the DNA of every seed in the soil.
This is Why We Should Have Gardens…and Gold, Goats, and Guns
Even after the pandemic, many (most?) people in the developed world continue to view “food supply chain disruption” as a tin-foil-hat concern. They’re apparently wrong. Again.
And note that higher food prices are just the first-order effect of a fertilizer shortage. The second and third-order impacts are geopolitical and possibly military.
So let this latest “peak complexity” signal encourage you to keep prepping. Anticipate shortages, higher prices, even more chaotic politics, and take some of the steps we’ve been discussing here.
US Senators Seek To Sanction Hungary Over Obstructing Ukraine Aid
Because US Congress is perfectly functional, and all domestic issues have been resolved (one would very ironically think), the FT reports that a bipartisan pair of US senators are set to introduce legislation calling for sanctions to be imposed on senior Hungarian officials involved in obstructing aid to Ukraine.
If passed, the Block Putin act would require President Trump to impose financial sanctions and visa bans on Hungarian government officials involved in the country’s purchases of Russian oil and gas, and who have sought to block support for Ukraine.
The introduction of the bill comes as Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has held up a €90bn EU loan to Ukraine as he faces a tough re-election campaign ahead of parliamentary elections next month. Opinion polls indicated Orbán, who has served as prime minister since 2010, could lose power. The opposition Tisza party’s lead stood at 23% points on Wednesday, according to pollster Median. Pro-government polls show a slight lead for Orbán’s ruling Fidesz.
Orbán, historically aligned with Vladimir Putin, has accused Kyiv of disrupting the flow of Moscow’s oil to Hungary by stalling repairs to the Druzhba pipeline, which transits Ukraine.
Democrat Jeanne Shaheen and Republican Thom Tillis, co-chairs of the Senate Nato observer group, are set to introduce the legislation this week. The pair have been outspoken about Europe’s continued dependence on Russian energy.
Tillis said: “The United States and our allies must remain united in supporting Ukraine and in cutting off the revenue streams that fuel Putin’s war.”
“This bill holds senior Hungarian officials accountable while giving Hungary a clear path to get back in line with its allies by ending its reliance on Russian energy and stopping its obstruction of support for Ukraine,” he added.
Shaheen, the top Democrat on the Senate foreign relations committee, said: “It is beyond belief that vice-president Vance is reportedly planning on visiting Hungary to provide an electoral boost to a corrupt government that continues to help fund Russia’s war machine.”
“If we want this war in Ukraine to end, the Trump administration needs to be consistent in holding our allies to the same standards; no one, especially Viktor Orbán, should get a free pass,” she said.
While much of the continent has sought to wean itself off Russian oil and gas supplies since Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Hungary and Slovakia have increased their dependence on Russian energy… and lucky for them, as now the “rest of the continent” is about to go dry as a result of the Iran war.
Complicating matters, Trump is very close to Orbán and has endorsed his re-election bid. Politico on Wednesday reported preparations were being made for US vice-president JD Vance to visit Hungary days ahead of the elections.
Trump has criticized Europe for continuing to buy Russian energy and has urged the continent to take the lead in supporting Ukraine.
“They’re buying oil and gas from Russia while they’re fighting Russia,” Trump said in his address to the UN General Assembly in September.
The draft text of the bill, which has been seen by the FT, does not mention Orbán explicitly as a target of the sanctions. Therefore, it would fall to the Trump administration to determine which Hungarian officials have been involved in holding up aid to Ukraine and continuing the country’s dependency on Russian energy, a congressional aide said.
Orbán and his foreign minister Péter Szijjártó have long sought close ties with Russia, with Szijjártó meeting his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov more than 20 times since the start of the war in 2022. The ruling Fidesz party has made anti-Ukraine messages the central element of its election campaign and insisted on maintaining Russian oil imports.
“If President [Volodymyr] Zelenskyy wants to get his money from Brussels, he must open the Druzhba crude pipeline,” Orbán said in a video message to the Ukrainian president last week. “They tell us openly that they don’t want to allow cheap Russian oil through to Hungary, so the situation is very simple. No oil — no money.”
The European Parliament has taken a major step toward a far tougher migration regime, approving a new negotiating mandate for legislation designed to speed up the deportation of illegal migrants and tighten enforcement across the bloc.
In a vote on Thursday, MEPs backed the so-called Returns Regulation by 389 votes to 206, with 32 abstentions, clearing the way for talks with the European Council on a new legal framework governing the removal of illegal migrants who have no right to remain in the European Union.
The result was driven by support from a broad right-wing and center-right coalition, including the European People’s Party (EPP), the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), Europe of Sovereign Nations (ESN), and Patriots for Europe (PfE), illustrating how the balance of power on migration has shifted in Brussels.
The proposal is intended to overhaul the EU’s weak returns system, long criticized for allowing rejected asylum seekers and other illegal migrants to remain in Europe for years. When the regulation was initiated by the European Commission last year, Migration Commissioner Magnus Brunner summed up the scale of the failure when he said, “One out of five people who are told to leave the EU, actually leave the EU, and that is not acceptable.”
NEW: The European Parliament has voted in favor of progressing a stricter legal framework for the deportation of illegal migrants.
Migrants with a deportation order will be required to cooperate with the authorities to facilitate their return, and could be detained for up to two… pic.twitter.com/vvDPtgrg1B
The new framework would introduce stricter return procedures, longer detention in some cases, wider entry bans, and penalties for those who refuse to cooperate with their own deportation. It would also open the door to so-called return hubs outside the EU, an idea that was fiercely attacked by Brussels only a few years ago when Britain pursued a Rwanda plan, and Italy signed its Albania agreement.
Conservatives hailed the vote as a breakthrough. Charlie Weimers, vice chair of the ECR, called it a landmark moment for his party and for tougher border enforcement in Europe. “New, stricter return rules are the Sweden Democrats’ biggest negotiating success ever in the EU. It will soon be possible to send home those who are not supposed to be in Europe, and return hubs outside the EU will be made possible. The era of deportations has begun!”
EPP chairman Manfred Weber also stated, “Today we are clearly demonstrating that European solutions to take on illegal migration are possible. European citizens expect decisive action, and we are delivering. Anyone who does not have a right to remain in the EU must leave.”
French nationalist MEP Marion Maréchal presented the vote as a turning point for the right. “It was a historic step for the coalition of the right in committee, and it is now a victory in the plenary session of the European Parliament: the ‘return regulation’ for greater firmness toward undocumented migrants has been voted through by the MEPs. After adoption in trilogue, it will be up to the French government to take action!”
NEW: The European Parliament has voted in favor of progressing a stricter legal framework for the deportation of illegal migrants.
Migrants with a deportation order will be required to cooperate with the authorities to facilitate their return, and could be detained for up to two… pic.twitter.com/vvDPtgrg1B
In a press release, Patriots for Europe declared that “European voters have long demanded a fundamental shift in migration policy” and that “a first decisive step has been taken.” The group argued that the old Brussels approach had failed completely and said the new agreement would help restore control to national governments. “Crucially, this new agreement shifts the paradigm towards minimum harmonization,” it said. “Instead of imposing a rigid, one-size-fits-all dictate from Brussels, this framework returns control to the national capitals.”
Patriots for Europe also highlighted several measures it says will make the system far more effective, including “severe consequences for non-cooperation,” stricter detention rules, and an end to what it described as abuse of the appeals process to delay removals indefinitely. The group said the maximum detention period had been extended to 24 months and that migrants deemed security risks could now be placed in enhanced-security facilities or prisons.
Left-wing organizations reacted with alarm, accusing the EPP of joining forces with nationalist parties and abandoning the old parliamentary cordon sanitaire. The European Council on Refugees and Exiles (ECRE) said the decision would “normalize measures that stigmatize migrants” and weaken rights protections, while Amnesty International condemned what it called an “increasingly harmful and draconian direction” in EU migration policy.
This backlash, however, confirms how dramatically the debate has changed. Policies, such as remigration, once denounced as extreme, are now moving into the mainstream of EU law, and the focus in Brussels is no longer on managing migration flows, but on removing those who are not entitled to stay.
Global Demand Destruction: Subsidies, Empty Gas Stations, Rationing, Flight Cancelations, Export Limits, Price Controls
In the past two weeks we have discussed demand destruction as a result of soaring oil prices (here and here), and we are increasingly seeing anecdotal evidence of just that (here is a table from Goldman we showed previously, laying out where demand destruction is most acute).
We start, as always, with Asia which has emerged as ground zero of the global energy crisis – as a reminder last week we first presented a map by JPMorgan’s resident commodity expert who how the shockwave from the Iran war spreads across the world, hitting Asia first, then Africa and Europe, before settling on the US, but mostly California.
According to UBS, a shortage of jet fuel in Asia and very high prices for what is available are now leading to greater flight cancellations. European jet fuel trades around $1713/tonne, up 114% since the war began. Singapore fuel is up around 140%. Both Vietnam Airlines and Air New Zealand have had to cancel flights due to limited fuel supply.
Let’s go down the list.
1. Panic buying prompts PM to reassure Australians over fuel supply(bbc)
Australia will halve its fuel excise for three months from Wednesday after prices soared to a record last week as the impact of the Iran war spreads. Meanwhile, the average price of a liter of diesel jumped above A$2.82 last week, while petrol was almost A$2.40, both the highest in at least 20 years. The average price in rural regions like the Northern Territory was even higher, a blow to farmers and long-distance transport firms.
The temporary cut would reduce the price of petrol and diesel by about 26 Australian cents ($0.18) per liter, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said at a press conference Monday in Canberra. “The longer this war goes on, the worse the impacts will be,” he said. The government will also reduce the heavy road user charge for the next three months, and delay the next planned increased in that charge by six months. The measures are expected to cost about A$2.55 billion and to lower CPI by 0.5 ppt, Treasurer Jim Chalmers said.
Albanese has sought to reassure Australians that the country’s fuel supply remains “secure” as prices soar and following reports of panic buying and petrol stations running dry since the start of the Iran war. There have been reports of truck drivers and other motorists stranded, while businesses say rising costs are affecting their viability. The government says demand and distribution issues have caused shortages rather than supply, which it says remains at the same level as before the war began.
In Cairns, Queensland, the BBC found a small independent garage that tells a pretty typical story in Australia. It has run out of unleaded petrol and the price of diesel is 85% higher than it was before the war in Iran started. In New South Wales, Australia’s most populous state, one in seven retailers say they are out of at least one type of fuel.
The price of diesel in Sydney has meanwhile risen to the 314.5 cents a litre as of Thursday, according to the National Roads and Motorists’ Association (NRMA), its highest ever price. Hundreds of petrol stations across the country have reported running out of at least one type of fuel this week. But shortages are due to people changing their buying habits, NRMA spokesperson Peter Khoury told the BBC. “People are filling up jerry cans of fuel and storing it in their garages,” he said.
“We’re hearing increasingly of transport companies telling their drivers that if you’re half full and you see diesel, buy it.”
2. Japan Says Oil Reserves for Domestic Use Amid Asia Pleas for Aid(bbg)
Japan’s trade minister said the country will sell oil from its reserves to domestic refiners as a general rule, signaling that the government isn’t currently planning to channel national supplies directly to other Asian nations seeking assistance.
“Regarding the sale of strategic petroleum reserves, we are certainly targeting domestic oil and refining companies,” Trade Minister Ryosei Akazawa said Friday, pointing out that they were legally established to secure Japan’s own energy supplies. “However, the situation may differ somewhat for joint reserves with oil-producing countries. We intend to closely monitor developments and make appropriate decisions on a case-by-case basis.”
Other Asian countries are facing similar oil supply challenges. The Philippines and Vietnam have reportedly sought support from Japan, which holds some of the world’s largest oil reserves. In addition to its own reserves, Japan also has reserves held with oil producing nations like Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait.
Akazawa said he is well aware of the Philippines’ dire situation, noting that its reserves are far smaller than Japan’s while it relies heavily on the strait to secure oil, as Japan does.
3. Japan to relax rules from April to boost coal-fired power amid LNG import risks(reuters)
Japan’s industry ministry will relax rules for one year to increase the use of coal-fired power plants in the fiscal year starting April, as the U.S.-Israel war with Iran adds uncertainty to liquefied natural gas imports, it said on Friday. Japan takes delivery of some 4 million metric tons of LNG annually – or around 6% of its total imports – via the Strait of Hormuz, which has been effectively closed due to the war.
“There is increasing uncertainty about future LNG procurement. We believe that it is necessary to increase the operation of coal-fired power plants and save LNG fuel,” an industry ministry official told a special government panel. The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry proposed suspending for one year its 50% cap on the capacity utilisation rate of coal-fired power plants with generation efficiency below 42%.
LNG consumption could then fall by about 0.5 million tons a year, or slightly more than 10% of the LNG it imports via the Strait of Hormuz, according to a METI’s estimate. The ministry will implement the change from April 1 as an emergency measure and there were no objections from the panel members, the official told Reuters.
Japan has an LNG stockpile of around 4 million tons, METI data showed. Its thermal power generation largely depends on LNG and coal, with a small portion covered by oil, with electricity also being generated from nuclear power and renewable energy. So far, Japan has restarted 15 nuclear power reactors of 33 which remain operable after the Fukushima Daiichi disaster in 2011.
4. India Slaps Taxes on Fuel Exports as Iran War Jolts Supply (bbg)
India has announced a series of tax changes including a levy on fuel exports, as the country tries to shield consumers from the impact of a deepening conflict in the Middle East that has upended energy supply. The South Asian nation imposed a 21.5 rupee (23 cents) per liter duty on exports of diesel and 29.5 rupees on jet fuel, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said in a post on X. “This will ensure adequate availability of these products for domestic consumption,” she said.
India has also slashed taxes on locally sold gasoline and diesel by 10 rupees per liter each, a reduction intended to help keep prices stable at the pump.
As the third-largest oil consumer, India is among the countries most impacted by the war in the Persian Gulf and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which connects the region with the wider world. It has seen acute shortages of liquefied petroleum gas, used for cooking, and of liquefied natural gas. The country raised LPG prices earlier this month and subsequent speculation around a likely increase in pump prices of diesel and gasoline has led to panic buying, with people lining up outside forecourts.
The energy crunch comes at a delicate time for a price-sensitive country, with elections in key states where Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party is looking to expand its foothold. Opposition parties have been pressing for more forceful measures to address the fuel crunch. Madhavi Arora, an economist at Emkay Global Financial Services, estimates the government’s annualized revenue loss from tax cuts at about 1.55 trillion rupees ($16.4 billion).
Diesel and jet fuel together form a significant portion of India’s refined product exports. Last month, India supplied around 500,000 barrels a day of the two products combined, out of the roughly 1.2 million barrels a day of fuels exported, tanker trading data from intelligence firms Vortexa and Kpler showed.
The government will lose 70 billion rupees every fortnight due to the excise duty cut, Vivek Chaturvedi, chairman of the Central Board of Indirect Taxes and Customs, told reporters at the daily government briefing on the situation. However, it expects to collect about 15 billion rupees over the same period from export taxes levied on jet fuel and diesel, he said.
Thailand is tightening oversight of fuel pricing and supply as authorities ramp up efforts to address shortages across parts of the country. Refineries must display selling prices at their sites along with current inventory levels, under new directives outlined by the Energy Ministry late Thursday. Traders are required to adhere to declared prices and cannot charge above government-set levels, it said.
The Southeast Asian country has faced fuel shortages in several provinces as the Middle East conflict drives up global oil prices, widening the gap between subsidized domestic rates and international markets. Fears of tighter supplies have sparked panic buying, particularly of diesel, despite government assurances that stocks can last about 100 days. While authorities have taken steps to shore up supplies to retail outlets, many pumps have had to ration fuel as agriculture and industrial users queued up with jerry cans along with commuters to buy diesel.
Diesel demand has jumped to about 87 million liters per day from an average 67 million liters before the start of the conflict, according to the ministry. The government has already raised retail prices to ease pressure on subsidies. However, even after Thursday’s increase, it is still subsidizing diesel at 19 baht (58 US cents) per liter, pushing the oil subsidy fund’s deficit to about 38 billion baht, acting Energy Minister Auttapol Rerkpiboon said.
6. Vietnamese Airlines Slash Flights From April on Jet Fuel Crunch (bbg)
Vietnamese airlines will significantly reduce flights and scale back operations from April as soaring jet fuel prices and supply constraints squeeze the industry, prompting carriers to focus on core routes as the Middle East conflict drags on. Vietnam Airlines, the national carrier, will suspend seven domestic routes from April 1, according to a document from the Civil Aviation Authority of Vietnam. The airline plans to cut 10-20% of its flights per month in the next quarter if jet fuel reaches $160-$200 per barrel, the document said. That could mean up to 18% of its international flights being canceled and up to 26% on domestic routes.
Low-cost carrier Vietjet Air is targeting an 18% reduction in total capacity in April, including a 22% cut in domestic flights and an 11% reduction in international routes, the document said. Bamboo Airways passengers are expected to see the biggest disruption in April, with flights halved to 15–17 per day.
Vietnam has moved to shore up energy security after severe disruptions to oil and gas flows through the Strait of Hormuz, prompting the government to tap its emergency fuel fund to stabilize prices. The country’s two domestic refineries meet around 70% of its domestic demand, but more than 80% of its crude imports come from Middle East.
The government announced on Friday it will temporarily freeze some taxes on gasoline, oil and jet fuel until April 15 as an ‘urgent’ move to stabilize the domestic market and ensure national security due to the ongoing conflict
7. Asia employs energy price control and subsidies (WoodMac)
Asian governments have rapidly deployed an unprecedented array of cushions to protect the hardest-hit sectors and consumers. But such interventions come at a staggering cost and, if oil prices remain high, some Asian governments will soon hit fiscal breaking point.
Asian countries are trying to prevent a repeat of the 2022 cost-of-living crisis. Beyond demand-side management, Asian governments have shifted from market pricing for oil products to aggressive intervention. A plethora of policy responses are being rolled out across the region. Most, though, amount to pretty much the same thing – subsidies for consumers.
Price caps at the pump are the go-to lever, with governments compensating losses through a variety of mechanisms. In Indonesia, losses by national oil company (NOC) Pertamina will be recovered by government compensation later; Japan and Malysia have a similar scheme for their refiners and fuel suppliers. In Thailand and Vietnam, oil company losses are currently made good from dedicated funds – though the longevity of these funds is already being tested. China, meanwhile, has a US$130/bbl crude price ‘cap’ on refined product prices that refiners can pass through to customers. Perhaps in anticipation of higher prices, China introduced subsidies on diesel and gasoline this week despite the cap not being breached.
India has a twist on the theme. The government moved fast to freeze retail prices but the state-owned oil marketing companies initially have to absorb the losses. Once these become unsustainable, the central government intervenes by cutting taxes, essentially sacrificing tax revenue to keep the pump price stable.
The affordability of current subsidy schemes varies greatly by country. Thailand and Vietnam have tapped into budget rainy-day funds to make subsidy payments. But Thailand’s fund is already in deficit, while Vietnam’s will be fully drawn by early April under the current subsidy scale. Expanded fiscal deficits look near-certain through 2026 across much of Asia. If Brent averages US$100/bbl for four months, India is hit hardest among Asia’s major economies: we estimate a cost equivalent to 0.7% of GDP and 7.2% of government revenue in fiscal year 2025-26. Indonesia is in danger of breaching its legal limit of 3% on its fiscal deficit if subsidy payments persist
On to Africa…
8. Kenya Plans to Stabilize Fuel Price as Outages Hit Some Stations (bbg)
Kenya plans to stabilize fuel prices as some stations run out of supply in the East African nation that typically depends on Middle East imports to meet demand. Vitol Group’s Vivo Energy, the biggest retailer in the country, said Thursday in a post on X that increased fuel demand resulted in temporary outages at some of its outlets. Kenya’s Treasury Secretary John Mbadi the same day outlined initial measures to be taken by the government to keep petrol and diesel prices from surging.
Kenya will utilize its petroleum development levy to cap pump prices, though a lengthy war could become an emergency, Mbadi told lawmakers in the capital, Nairobi. “It is my hope that we will not see this war prolonged for another month or so.”
Many African economies, particularly in East and Southern Africa where the Middle East is a major exporter, are running on weeks of stored refined products as the Iran war chokes shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. Governments have this week sought to reassure residents that there are sufficient stocks and asked them not to hoard fuel.
Kenya’s outlying gas stations have been the first to dry up as major oil companies are holding back from wholesaling product that would normally be distributed, according to a lobby group of independent operators.
“Rural stations are the worst hit — we can’t get product at competitive prices,” said Martin Chomba, chairman of the Petroleum Outlets Association of Kenya. About 68% of Kenya’s 6,200 gas stations are non-franchised and a “substantial number are not able to access products,” he said.
… and Europe
9. Czechs May Cap Fuel Margins as Premier Slams Retail Prices (bbg)
The Czech government said it’s considering regulating retail margins at gas stations after Prime Minister Andrej Babis criticized the two largest fuel distributors in the country for what he called “outrageous” prices at the pumps. Local media have reported that cost of petrol and diesel in the Czech Republic has shown one of the biggest jumps in the European Union since the outbreak of the war in Iran. While several nations in central and eastern Europe have adopted measures to ease the impact of surging oil on households and businesses, the Czech government rejected opposition proposals to lower excise taxes because of the impact on budget deficit.
“Instead, we are prepared to do something actually effective, and that is for instance regulating margins at the pumps,” Finance Minister Alena Schillerova said in a post on X Friday. “This option and other steps will be the main topic at the government meeting on Monday.”
The premier, a chemicals and agriculture billionaire who returned to power last year, urged Poland’s Orlen SA and Hungary’s Mol Nyrt to lower their prices immediately. “I’m asking you not to abuse the current situation in supply of fuels caused by the Iran crisis,” Babis said in a video on his Facebook account.
Officials in Prague previously stated they wouldn’t cut fuel taxes to ease the hit from energy shock, saying such a move wouldn’t guarantee lower retail prices. Orlen Unipetrol, the Czech unit of the Polish group, is operating in line with the law and its prices are set by the market, the CTK newswire reported, citing spokesman Pavel Kaidl. A spokesman for Mol’s Czech unit told the Seznamzpravy news website that fuel prices are determined mainly by oil prices on international markets, while taxes also have a significant influence.
10. Poland Plans Fuel Tax Cuts to Shield Consumers From High Prices (bbg)
Poland is joining a group of countries that shield consumers from surging fuel prices with a plan to cut taxes and cap prices at the pump, according to Prime Minister Donald Tusk. The government will reduce the value-added tax and excise levies on fuels as well as impose a cap on retail prices that will be set daily in line with wholesale levels, Tusk told a news conference on Thursday.
The moves, which need parliamentary approval, are expected to slash fuel costs by 1.2 zloty ($0.32) per liter and could take effect by Easter, Tusk said. The cabinet is also preparing windfall tax on fuel refiners — a measure that’s set to impact Polish energy champion Orlen SA, the largest company in Warsaw’s benchmark WIG20 stock index. Its shares have lost as much as 6.7% in the wake of the announcement.
The oil-importing nation has seen one of the sharpest increases in fuel prices among European Union members since the start of the Iran war. Unleaded gasoline costs have jumped 22%, while diesel by 40%, according to European Commission data. This compares with average increases of around 15% for gasoline and 26% for diesel across the 27-nation bloc.
* * *
And as the global shockwave from the Iran war gets more acute, expect the response from officials and authorities to become increasingly more panicked.
