By Michael Every of Rabobank

US challenger job-cuts data were… challenging: the highest level of October firings in 20 years. While we wait for the US Supreme Court to decide on the challenge to one set of Trump tariffs, before they are replaced by others, and to see if the US Senate will reopen the US government today, as it rejects the Trump challenge to ‘nuke the veto’, we are also challenged by:

The China-US deal to ease rare-earth export controls for a year may have hit a snag. China’s regional authorities have reportedly said export controls from April remain in place so there is still a need for special export licenses and intrusive questions. That’s a week into the one-year Trump-Xi deal. The US also added silver and copper to its critical minerals list, as Trump hosted Central Asian leaders, aiming for their rare earths, as Japan and the US announced they would mine deep-sea rare earths together. Does any of this read like they expect the deal to hold long-term?

Gunvor had to scrap their deal to purchase Lukoil’s foreign assets, following the Russian firm’s sanctioning by the US, after the US called it a Kremlin “puppet.” We have been warning geopolitics would force entry into the commodity trading complex: here’s a warmup.

The Financial Times reported recent US trade deals with ASEAN countries contain ‘poison pills’ which mean they can be cancelled by the White House if any action signatories take with China threatens “essential US interests” or “poses a material threat” to it. Do you think this kind of logic will only apply to those particular counterparties? No: it will apply to everyone who struck a deal.

That’s as the South China Morning Post asks, ‘Can the EU walk a strategic autonomy tightrope in the China-US tug of war?’, quoting a former diplomat that China’s efforts to persuade the EU to treat ties as a strategic partnership are “reaching their limits”. Equally, a coalition of 16 US State attorney generals warned some of the country’s biggest companies not to comply with the EU’s new sustainability regulations: Europe is already watering said legislation down to appease Qatar. Moreover, US firm Kyndryl just entered into an agreement to acquire Solvinity, a provider of secure managed cloud platforms and services in the Netherlands, including for the Dutch government, while VW announced it will be developing driverless cars using Chinese AI. ‘EU strategic autonomy’ meets reality and goes home without its lunch money.

Trump has today made it sound like he’s building bridges to India, calling PM Modi “a great man,” stating he has largely stopped buying Russian oil — news to India, Russia, and oil markets — and that he could go there in 2026. If so, expect the 50% US tariff to come down regardless of what the Supreme Court thinks. It seems highly unlikely that the US would need to insist on a poison pill re: China for any India deal that is then struck.

And speaking of striking things, geopolitics continues to march alongside geoeconomics:

In the Middle East, the US is reportedly to establish a military presence at a Damascus airbase to broker a Israel-Syria security pact, as Israel carries out airstrikes vs Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, the US reiterates Hamas has pledged to disarm too, and Kazakhstan, which already has relations with Israel, will join the Abraham Accords.

In Latin America, the US Senate blocked a resolution that would have kept Trump from striking Venezuela, and the US is considering a new military base in Ecuador. Argentina’s Milei is meanwhile defying calls to float the Argentine peso freely as dollarisation rumours rumble on.

In Europe, drones closed Brussels airport for the third time in a week, Romania called on the US to overturn its decision to drawdown 800 troops based there, as the EU agreed to open its Horizon research fund to defence projects.

In Asia, the SCMP says, ‘China could win a contest with the US ‘before a shot is even fired’: strategists’ as “Decades of neglect and decline have made logistics the weakest link in Washington’s deterrence strategy in the Pacific.” Japan and New Zealand have begun talks on a potential frigates acquisition, and China’s military says Australia’s AUKUS plans put it in an “increasingly precarious position.”

Meanwhile, just as market worries over inflation AND job losses start to appear in tandem, we get the world’s first trillionaire in the form of Elon Musk, who just won his giant pay rise from shareholders. As the Australian Financial Review notes, “The [for now] billionaire’s new deal isn’t about money. It’s about putting himself at the center of the way society operates – in his words, having “strong influence.”” You’d think a trillion dollars opens a few doors.

The Financial Times also just had back-to-back links yesterday worth noting. First, ‘AI pioneers claim human-level general intelligence is already here’: it was fun having a job while it lasted. Second, ‘Are bubbles good, actually?’ on Jeff Bezos’ defence of AI mania: it’s perhaps not hard for AI to mimic certain levels of human ‘intelligence’ (and, to be fair, the article argues bubbles are historically a very silly way to build ambitious projects vs proper planning).  

As stocks wobble and China restarts de facto QE with a small bond purchase, France’s far right says it will push for the ECB to do the same if it comes to power, following a policy path paved by Reform in the UK and, to a degree, the Trump White House vis-à-vis the Fed. How long until other EU elections drag central banks into the mix? How long until populists are in the position to actually make that shift happen?

Or, how long until central banks do it anyway if job losses suddenly start to spike? If that doesn’t challenge some preconceptions of how things work, I’m not sure what will.

Goldman Sachs economics research group estimates that seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims increased to about 228k for the week ended November 1st by combining the Department of Labor (DOL)’s pre-released seasonal factors with this afternoon’s release of state-level claims.

While the DOL is not producing any official data releases during the government shutdown, some employees involved with the administration of unemployment insurance are excepted from the shutdown and publish the state-level data as a part of their regular duties.

Estimates for New Mexico did not appear in today’s DOL data, and we assume that initial claims there were in line with last week’s levels.

At the state level, we estimate that initial claims rose by 5k each in Missouri and Kentucky but declined by 3k each in Texas and California (all state-level data seasonally adjusted by GS).

Using the same set of assumptions, we estimate that continuing claims increased to 1,954k for the week ended October 25th.

These estimates are based on preliminary data and may change when DOL officially releases jobless claims after the government shutdown.

Notably, homebase reports that the Entertainment industry is seeing the biggest layoffs…

Finally, while the official data remains unknown due to the shutdown, Bloomberg has summarized the private and alternative data…

…most of which suggests a softening labor market.

A wave of flight cancellations and delays is already rippling across U.S. airports after the Federal Aviation Administration ordered airlines to reduce 4% of flights at 40 of the nation’s busiest airports to ease pressure on unpaid air traffic controllers amid the record-long government shutdown. The airlines most at risk today include Spirit, Frontier, and United.

The FAA’s unprecedented directive will cut flight operations by 4% today, rising to 6% by next Tuesday and reaching 10% by mid-month, that’s if the federal government remains shut down.

For some context, a 10% reduction will result in about 4,400 flights canceled per day, causing widespread travel chaos nationwide ahead of the holiday period later this month. 

 As of Friday morning, the aviation website FlightAware shows 822 flight cancellations within, into, or out of the U.S. and 805 delays within, into, or out of the U.S. Those numbers are expected to rise through the day.

Cancellations begin: 

We are back at CVG this morning as the FAA flight reduction goes into effect at 6 AM. So far 6 arriving flights have been cancelled, no departures cancelled yet but one has been delayed by an hour. We are bringing you live updates on @FOX19 pic.twitter.com/KiDObn4qAP

— Caroline Gerhart (@CGerhart_News) November 7, 2025

Has your flight from Atlanta been cancelled today? @nytimes wants to hear about it. DM me or comment below. pic.twitter.com/VXS5eHqnCc

— Sean Keenan (@ThatSeanKeenan) November 7, 2025

Major U.S. Airports Affected by FAA Flight Reductions:

• ANC – Ted Stevens Anchorage International

• ATL – Hartsfield–Jackson Atlanta International

• BOS – Boston Logan International

• BWI – Baltimore/Washington International Thurgood Marshall

• CLT – Charlotte Douglas International

• CVG – Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky International

• DAL – Dallas Love Field

• DCA – Ronald Reagan Washington National

• DEN – Denver International

• DFW – Dallas/Fort Worth International

• DTW – Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County

• EWR – Newark Liberty International

• FLL – Fort Lauderdale–Hollywood International

• HNL – Daniel K. Inouye Honolulu International

• HOU – William P. Hobby (Houston)

• IAD – Washington Dulles International

• IAH – George Bush Intercontinental (Houston)

• IND – Indianapolis International

• JFK – John F. Kennedy International (New York)

• LAS – Harry Reid International (Las Vegas)

• LAX – Los Angeles International

• LGA – LaGuardia (New York)

• MCO – Orlando International

• MDW – Chicago Midway International

• MEM – Memphis International

• MIA – Miami International

• MSP – Minneapolis–St. Paul International

• OAK – Oakland International

• ONT – Ontario International

• ORD – Chicago O’Hare International

• PDX – Portland International

• PHL – Philadelphia International

• PHX – Phoenix Sky Harbor International

• SAN – San Diego International

• SDF – Louisville Muhammad Ali International

• SEA – Seattle–Tacoma International

• SFO – San Francisco International

• SLC – Salt Lake City International

• TEB – Teterboro (New Jersey)

• TPA – Tampa International

Mapping Where Cancellations and Delays Will Originate

Later today, the Senate will vote for the 15th time to reopen the federal government. Earlier this week, reports indicated that eight centrist Democrats were prepared to join Republicans in ending the longest shutdown in U.S. history. However, the party’s far-left progressive wing, which prioritizes illegal aliens over American citizens and has become the new face of the Democratic Party, is pushing back against reopening the government.

Separate, but in markets, FAA-enforced flight cancellations are expected to weigh on jet fuel demand across major US airport hubs.

Check back later for updates. We suspect delays and cancellations will mount throughout the day.  

There are encouraging signs that the global auto supply-chain chip crunch sparked by the dispute between the Netherlands and China has begun to cool.

Dutch Economy Minister Vincent Karremans said Friday that China is expected to resume chip supplies to Nexperia’s customers in Europe and elsewhere “in the coming days,” signaling a softening of the Netherlands’ stance and raising hopes of a breakthrough deal with China to resolve the months-long dispute surrounding Chinese-owned chipmaker Nexperia. 

“The Netherlands trusts that the supply of chips from China to Europe and the rest of the world will reach Nexperia’s customers over the coming days,” Karremans stated. He was part of the team of Dutch authorities that seized Nexperia’s management early this fall.

Bloomberg reports that the Netherlands is preparing to roll back its ministerial order granting the government authority to block or alter key corporate decisions at Nexperia, provided China resumes exports of its critical chips. The use of this Cold War-era law, which gave the Dutch state control over Nexperia’s operations, prompted Beijing to retaliate by imposing restrictions on the company’s exports from China.

Those Chinese export restrictions sparked automotive chip disruptions:

• Nexperia-Linked Chip Shortages Ripple Through Global Auto Supply Chain, From Germany To Japan

• Chipmaker Nexperia’s China Arm Tells Staff To Ignore Dutch HQ, Deepening Semiconductor Split

This comes as the U.S. and China unveil a trade deal and resolution to the chip dispute:

• White House Unveils Details Of U.S.-China Deal, Including Resolution To Nexperia Auto Chip Crisis

Karremans noted, “Given the constructive nature of our talks with the Chinese authorities, the Netherlands trusts that the supply of chips from China to Europe and the rest of the world will reach Nexperia’s customers over the coming days.” 

News of this development sent Nexperia’s Chinese parent Wingtech Technology up nearly 10%, while major European automakers gained in the Friday session.

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times,

The U.S. Department of State said on Nov. 6 that 80,000 visas have been revoked.

President Donald Trump and State Secretary Marco Rubio “will always put the safety and interests of the American people first,” the State Department said in a post on X.

The department said in a follow-up post that visas were revoked for reasons including support for terrorism, “actual terrorism,” criminal activity, public safety threats, and overstays.

The State Department also said that 16,000 visas were revoked in 2025 for driving under the influence of alcohol, 12,000 revoked for assault, and 8,000 revoked for theft. The nonimmigrant visa revocation numbers are from the beginning of this year.

The State Department did not offer more details regarding the revocations. The administration has maintained a conservative stance on approving visas for foreigners and has swiftly canceled visa privileges of temporary residents, including students, based on actions concerning national security.

“The Trump Administration will not hesitate to revoke visas from foreigners who undermine our laws or threaten our national security,” Tommy Pigott, the State Department’s principal deputy spokesperson, said in a Nov. 5 post on X.

Recently, the department invalidated visas of foreign nationals for publicly celebrating the assassination of popular conservative influencer Charlie Kirk.

In an Oct. 14 post on X, the department said it was revoking visas of six foreigners, including a South African national who mocked Americans grieving Kirk’s death, saying, “They’re hurt that the racist rally ended in attempted martyrdom.” The other individuals were from Argentina, Brazil, Germany, Mexico, and Paraguay.

“The United States has no obligation to host foreigners who wish death on Americans,” the department said, adding that it “continues to identify visa holders who celebrated the heinous assassination of Charlie Kirk.”

The Trump administration has also reduced the number of nonimmigrant visas issued to foreign nationals.

The visas are issued to foreign citizens on a temporary basis for tourism, business, medical treatment, and certain types of temporary work, while immigrant visas are for people who intend to live and work permanently in the country.

The United States had approved 897,937 nonimmigrant visas in May 2025, according to numbers from the State Department. This is down by more than 16 percent from 1,070,656 such visas issued in May 2024 under the Biden administration.

As for immigrant visas, the department issued 46,751 such visas in May 2025, down by more than 20 percent from the 58,778 issued in May last year.

Student Visa Vetting

In late May, the State Department ordered U.S. embassies to pause student visa interviews in an effort to strengthen the vetting process, especially concerning the screening of applicants’ social media accounts.

“We take very seriously the process of vetting who it is that comes into the country,” then-State Department spokeswoman Tammy Bruce told reporters at the time.

This action from the department followed Rubio’s statement in March.

“Coming to the United States on a visa is a privilege, not a right,“ Rubio said. ”The Trump Administration is determined to deny or revoke your visa if you’re here to support terrorists.”

He made the comments amid a rise in student protests on college campuses across the country.

The Trump administration’s crackdown on student visas has been met with opposition from Democrats. In April, a group of Democrats from New York criticized the administration following reports of students from various universities in the state having their visas revoked, according to an April 17 statement by New York state Sen. Patricia Fahy.

Such a “continued assault” on students’ free speech and institutions of higher education undermines the principles of American democracy, she said, adding that students must not feel afraid or powerless because of their immigration status.

“We are deeply disturbed by the Trump administration’s revocation of student visas without justification or explanation,” Fahy said. “The Constitution guarantees fundamental rights and due process to all people, not just U.S. citizens. History tells us that although persecution often begins with attacks on immigrant communities, it rarely ends there, which begs the question: Who is next?”

In June, the department announced new vetting requirements, including social media screening for all student visa applicants. The changes affect applicants for the student, vocational, and exchange visitor visas.

Rubio also announced that the administration would begin revoking visas for students from China, including those with any links to the Chinese Communist Party.

The Chinese communist regime has been accused of monitoring and mobilizing students abroad for the purposes of carrying out CCP directives and spreading its propaganda.

In August, the Department of Homeland Security proposed changes to temporary visas, which included establishing a fixed visa period for nonimmigrant students, exchange visitors, and foreign media personnel to stay in the United States.

The administration has also placed visa restrictions on foreign nationals who engage in censoring Americans, and on H-1B visas issued for importing foreign workers to fulfill specialized roles.

“Even as we take action to reject censorship at home, we see troubling instances of foreign governments and foreign officials picking up the slack. In some instances, foreign officials have taken flagrant censorship actions against U.S. tech companies and U.S. citizens and residents when they have no authority to do so,” the State Department said in a May 28 statement.

Employers must now pay a one-time fee of $100,000 for visas to hire a foreign worker under the H-1B program.

US equity futs are trading at session lows driven by a tech-led dip in stock futures over the past two hours as global risk sentiment turns sour to end the week, and with Goldman TMT specialist Peter Bartlett observing that  “a more bearish/skeptical view of the AI trade is coming up in more and more of our investor conversations… even if positioning hasn’t changed much off the highs.” As of 8:00am, S&P futures are down 0.5%, and Nasdaq futures drop 0.7%, with most of the Mag 7s underperforming (NVDA -0.7%, GOOG/L -0.5% and META -0.5%). Microsoft was poised for its longest losing streak since 2011. US Treasuries held onto yesterday’s gains with yields 1-2 bps higher after the two dismal labor reports . The dollar was steady, while Bitcoin headed for its worst week since March. Commodities are mixed; oil and precious metals are higher this morning, while base metals are lower. Macro headlines overnight were mostly quiet. Shutdown negotiation progress remains stalled; airline cuts begin this Friday. Chinese exports unexpectedly fall for the first time since February; Jensen Huang said he is not actively discussing the Blackwell shipment to China. 

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mostly lower: (Tesla +0.1%, Microsoft -0.4%, Apple -0.04%, Amazon -0.6%, Meta -0.5%, Alphabet -0.7%, Nvidia -0.8%) 

• Affirm Holdings (AFRM) jumps 10% after the buy-now-pay-later financing company raised its forecast for 2026 gross merchandise volume. The updated guidance beat the average analyst estimate.
• Airbnb Inc. (ABNB) rises 3% after issuing a better-than-expected outlook for the holiday quarter, with a recently launched “reserve now, pay later” feature helping fuel demand in the US.
• Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) falls 13% after the maker of fiber-optic networking products reported third-quarter revenue that was slightly weaker than expected and gave a revenue outlook that was below the analyst consensus. However, analysts see strong prospects for 2026.
• Archer Aviation (ACHR) drops 11% after the company, which is trying to bring electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft to market, said it is buying Hawthorne Airport in Los Angeles. The company is offering shares at $8 each to certain institutional investors to raise gross proceeds of $650m, part of which will be used to fund the acquisition.
• Block (XYZ) tumbles 14% after the fintech platform reported third-quarter adjusted earnings and net revenue that missed the average analyst estimate.
• Expedia (EXPE) rises 14% after the online travel agency’s results pointed to strong and resilient travel demand. Peer Airbnb (ABNB) also rallies after the company gave a better-than-expected outlook for the holiday quarter.
• Globus Medical (GMED) soars 28% after the medical-device maker increased its forecast for full-year profit following third-quarter earnings that topped estimates. Truist Securities upgrades to buy from hold, citing much higher earnings power following results.
• Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) falls 30% after the biotech reported a patient died following treatment with its investigational gene-editing therapy to treat a rare disease.
• JFrog (FROG) soars 21% after the software company reported third-quarter results that beat expectations and raised its full-year forecast.
• KKR & Co. (KKR) is up around 5% after the investment company reported assets under management that beat the average analyst estimate. Fee-related earnings also came in above expectations.
• Microchip Technology (MCHP) falls 3% after the semiconductor-device company gave a weaker-than-expected revenue forecast.
• Monster Beverage (MNST) rises 4% after third-quarter results topped expectations. Analysts are positive about the energy drinks company’s gross margins and sales following the recent price hikes. Shares rose 4.1% in postmarket trading.
• Sandisk Corp. (SNDK) rises 3% after the computer hardware and storage company posted fiscal first quarter revenue that beat estimates. Second-quarter sales guidance also topped expectations. Analysts continue to see a strong AI-fueled tailwind for the company.
• Sweetgreen (SG) falls 13% after the restaurant chain cut its revenue guidance for the full year, missing the average analyst estimate. William Blair downgrades its rating on the stock.
• Take-Two Interactive Software Inc. (TTWO) falls 6% after delaying the release of Grand Theft Auto VI again, pushing back the much-anticipated video game by six months to November 2026.
• Wendy’s Co. (WEN) rises 7% after reporting that sales declined less than expected in the third quarter, a sign the burger chain is starting to rebound from a slump that’s eroded investor confidence this year.

In corporate news, Tesla shareholders approved a $1 trillion compensation package for CEO Elon Musk, more than 75% of the votes cast in favor of the largest payout ever awarded to a corporate leader. Comcast is said to explore Warner Bros Discovery Bid, and ITV confirmed discussions with Comcast’s Sky about a potential division sale. 

Investors are heading into the end of a dizzying week that has delivered one of the toughest tests yet for the post-April AI-fueled rally amid growing doubts that the surge has gone too far.  Futures edge lower in early trading, capping a week in which investors weighed concerns over tech valuations, sparse economic data, mixed signals on interest rate cuts and an unclear jobs market picture. With another empty Friday for labor economists, Fed commentary is drawing greater scrutiny. Austan Goolsbee said a lack of inflation data during the government shutdown makes him uneasy about continuing interest-rate cuts. That follows Beth Hammack’s caution that high inflation poses a bigger risk than job market weakness. John Williams sees Fed reserves as close to the desired level.

“Sentiment is probably modestly cautious,” said Karen Georges, a fund manager at Ecofi. “Any reassuring news on employment data in the US, a potential end to the shutdown, or tariff news-flow could give markets a new boost.”

With the US benchmark down 1.8% for the week, a notable feature has been the lack of clear catalysts behind the swings. Traders say the choppiness may linger for a while but expect it to remain relatively shallow, with solid earnings and the prospect of eventual Fed easing continuing to underpin sentiment.

“On the very short term, let’s say until the end of the year, we really don’t see any big correction on the horizon, we don’t see any type of catalyst for that,” said Arnaud Faller, chief investment officer at CPR Asset Management.

As noted last night, AI enthusiasm is increasingly meeting skepticism, with concerns centering on a question that threatens to undermine the hype: Who is going to provide all of funds needed to finance the lofty ambitions of OpenAI? 
Opinions vary. DoubleLine Capital’s Robert Cohen warns on novel project structures, like off-balance sheet funding, and the uncertainty over whether such huge projects will make money. Delphine Arnaud, portfolio manager at Edmond de Rothschild, shares concerns over how quickly heavy capex can translate into earnings but doesn’t see a bubble-bursting scenario. Japan’s largest tech fund says AI stocks are not in a bubble and can rise further. 

The silver lining: according to BofA, flows remain supportive with US equity funds attracting $19.6 billion for the week ending Nov. 5, an eighth consecutive week of inflows. That said, volatility gauges remain in focus with the VIX index back above 20 briefly on Thursday, and the VVIX rose at one point to the highest since mid-October.

Semiconductors remain in the spotlight. Nvidia isn’t in active discussions to sell its Blackwell AI chips to Chinese firms, said CEO Jensen Huang. The Netherlands is prepared to suspend its powers over Chinese-owned chipmaker Nexperia if China allows exports of its critical chips again.

Turning to earnings, out of the 448 S&P 500 companies that have reported so far in the earnings season, 82% have managed to beat analyst forecasts, while 14% have missed.  KKR, Franklin Resources, Duke Energy and Constellation Software are among companies expected to report results before the market opens. Analysts will be listening for Duke Energy details on new large-load customers like data centers as well as the utility’s plan for financing its rising capital expenditures. 

European stocks reverse an opening rise, with the Stoxx 600 falling 0.4% on a drag from travel, insurance and tech stocks. Novo Nordisk shares dropped after the Danish drugmaker increased its offer for Metsera Inc. The media and autos sectors outperformed, while travel and leisure shares lagged, dragged lower by IAG. Here are some of the biggest movers on Friday:

• Euronext shares rise 3% on third-quarter profit beat, improved cost guidance for the full year and a €250 million share buyback.
• ITV shares surge as much as 18% in London trading, after the broadcaster announced Sky’s owner Comcast is in preliminary discussions about a potential acquisition of its media and entertainment division.
• Monte Paschi shares rally as much as 5% to be the best performers on the Stoxx 600 Banks Index on Friday, after the Italian lender reported net income for the third quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.
• Amadeus shares rise as much as 4%, the most since July, after the company reported results that topped expectations in the third quarter.
• Arkema shares rise as much as 6.5%, the most since May, after the French chemicals company released earnings and lowered its guidance as expected.
• Aumovio shares rise as much as 6.5% after the auto parts supplier posted earnings ahead of expectations in the third quarter, despite a challenging sales backdrop.
• SBB shares advance as much as 13% after the Swedish landlord delivered net income of 803 million Swedish kronor ($83.8 million) for the third quarter.
• Novo Nordisk shares drop as much as 2.3% after the Danish drugmaker said it expects a negative low single-digit impact on global sales growth in 2026 following Thursday’s deal with the Trump administration.
• Rightmove shares fall as much as 28% after the UK online property portal announced plans to step up investment in artificial intelligence, which analysts said will reduce profit estimates for 2026 onward.
• IAG shares drop as much as 9.8%, the most since April, after reporting a miss on Ebit in the key third quarter.
• Dino Polska shares drop as much as 10% after the company reported EPS and sales below estimates on Thursday.

Earlier in the sesssion, Asian stocks fell, with technology-heavy markets leading the decline, as concerns about swelling valuations put the regional gauge on track for its worst week in three months. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped as much as 1.3% on Friday, set for its worst week since August. Markets with large technology weightings, such as Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, tracked declines in US peers, while Hong Kong also slipped and China’s benchmarks closed lower. Indonesia advanced, and Indian equities trimmed most of their earlier losses. Tech stocks will continue to be in focus for the week ahead, with several firms in the region reporting earnings including Tencent, SoftBank and Sony. India will also report inflation figures, while Hong Kong and Malaysia will release gross domestic product data.

In FX, the dollar strengthens against most G-10 currencies, with the yen, kiwi and sterling underperforming. Fed rate-cut bets into 2026 following hawkish comments from Goolsbee and Hammack.

In rates, bonds falling, with 10-year Treasury yields up two basis points and declines across Europe and the UK. Investors trimming

Treasury futures trade off session lows leading into the US session, with yields still slightly higher on the day across the curve.  US long-end yields are about 1bp cheaper on the day, steepening the curve by less than 1bp; 10-year near 4.09% also is about 1bp higher on the day, outperforming UK counterpart by about 2bp, Germany’s by about half a basis point. IG dollar issuance slate empty so far and expected to be sparse. Thursday’s $9.7 billion haul brought weekly total to $55 billion, matching dealers’ projections. Focal points of US session include November preliminary University of Michigan sentiment, with October jobs report expected to be delayed due to the government shutdown. 

In commodities, gold rose and hovered around $4,000/oz. Oil prices rallying with Brent futures above $64/barrel.

The US economic calendar includes University of Michigan sentiment (10am), October NY Fed 1-year inflation expectations (11am) and September consumer credit (3pm). October jobs report would ordinarily appear at 8:30am. Fed speaker slate includes Governor Miran (3pm)

Top Overnight News

• About 700 flights today were canceled by the four biggest US airlines as the government ordered reduced operations. Trump’s administration finalized flight cuts to start at 4% on Friday and will ramp up to 10% on November 14th: BBG
• VP JD Vance said Americans are about to start suffering some very real consequences because of the government shutdown.
• Senate Majority Leader John Thune will attempt to move legislation in the Senate on Friday that could lay the groundwork for reopening the government, although Democrats look like they could block this measure. Politico
• The Trump administration moved to appeal the judgement requiring full SNAP benefits to be paid by Friday.
• The European Commission is proposing a pause to parts of its landmark AI laws amid intense pressure from Big Tech companies and the US gov. Brussels is set to water down parts of its digital rule book, including its AI at that entered into force last year, in a decision on a so-called simplification package on Nov 19. FT
• Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said his company isn’t in active discussions to sell its Blackwell AI chips to Chinese firms, waving off speculation it’s trying to engineer a return to that market. BBG
• China has begun designing a new rare earth licensing regime that could speed up shipments, but it is unlikely to amount to a complete rollback of restrictions as hoped by Washington, industry insiders said. RTRS
• China’s exports fell in October, with shipments to the U.S. dropping for a seventh straight month, as the growth that has powered the world’s second-largest economy this year took an unexpected stumble. Exports came in at -1.1% (vs. the Street +2.9%) and imports +1% (vs. the Street +2.7%). WSJ
• German exports rose in September, helped by a bump in trade with the U.S. after the European Union agreed to a deal on tariffs in the summer. Exports +1.4% (vs. the Street +0.5%) and imports +3.1% (vs. the Street +0.5%)
• Ukraine’s ambassador to the US Olha Stefanishyna said there have been “positive” talks on acquiring Tomahawk missiles, despite Trump’s reluctance. BBG
• NY Fed President John Williams said that the Federal Reserve could soon return to expanding its securities holdings, a week after the central bank said that it would wind down efforts to shrink its balance sheet on Dec. 1.  The net bond purchases would be the next, long-planned phase of the Fed’s approach to matching the levels of cash-like assets available to banks to their needs—not a new effort to stimulate the economy.  WSJ
• The longest US government shutdown in history isn’t driving the recent softening in markets, but still, they aren’t holding up as well as they did during 2018-2019, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. And missing paychecks and data delays may make the situation worse. BBG
• US Justice Department is said to be investigating the DC mayor over a foreign trip, according to The New York Times.

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini -0.1%
• Nasdaq 100 mini -0.2%
• Russell 2000 mini little changed
• Stoxx Europe 600 -0.5%
• DAX -0.6%
• CAC 40 -0.3%
• 10-year Treasury yield +2 basis points at 4.1%
• VIX +0.8 points at 20.28
• Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1222.16
• euro unchanged at $1.1547
• WTI crude +1.4% at $60.26/barrel

Trade/Tariffs

• US President Trump posts that he’s thrilled to announce an incredible trade and economic deal between the US and Uzbekistan in which the latter will be purchasing and investing almost USD 35bln over the next three years, and more than USD 100bln in the next 10 years in key American sectors, including critical minerals, aviation, automotive parts, infrastructure, agriculture, energy & chemicals, information technology, and others.
• US is to block NVIDIA’s (NVDA) sale of scaled-back AI chips to China, according to The Information.
• Netherlands is said to be ready to drop control of Nexperia if chip supply resumes, according to Bloomberg.
• China has begun working on rules to ease rare earth export curbs, according to Reuters citing industry sources.
• China’s Commerce Ministry suspends more rare earths related export control measures.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mostly lower as the region took its cue from the risk-off mood stateside, where sentiment was weighed on by weak US labour market proxies and AI concerns, while sentiment was also not helped by weak Chinese trade data. ASX 200 was led lower by weakness in tech and the top-weighted financial industry, with the latter pressured as Macquarie shares retreated on earnings disappointment. Nikkei 225 briefly fell beneath the 50,000 level after recent tech woes, currency strength and disappointing Household Spending data. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the downbeat mood after the PBoC’s open market operations resulted in the largest weekly drain since early 2024 and as participants awaited Chinese trade data which ultimately showed a surprise contraction in exports, while it was also reported that the US is to block NVIDIA’s sale of scaled-back AI chips to China.

Top Asian News

• PBoC injected CNY 141.7bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate kept at 1.40%, while its operations resulted in a weekly net drain of CNY 1.57tln which is the largest fund withdrawal since January 2024.

European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.3%) opened with a slight positive bias, but slipped soon after the cash open to display a mostly negative picture in Europe. Initial strength perhaps a cooling from the prior day’s pressure, but ultimately conformed to the subdued APAC session overnight. European sectors began the day with a positive bias, but now mixed. Autos takes the top spot, following modest post-earning upside in Daimler Truck (+0.9%, poor results but sees strong EBIT). Moreover, Netherlands is said to be ready to drop control of Nexperia if chip supply resumes, according to Bloomberg – further boosting sentiment for the sector. To the downside, IAG (-7%) tumbles after it noted that Transatlantic weakness hit sales.

Top European news

• Citi on the BoE, after November’s meeting, cautiously brings back the call for a December cut, but highlights the two sets of data and the budget before then as points of uncertainty.

FX

• DXY has recovered a portion of the prior session’s losses but remains capped below the 100.00 handle, with the rebound tempered by a combination of soft US data and renewed trade-related concerns. The greenback came under pressure yesterday following a trifecta of weak labour market proxies, underscoring signs of cooling momentum in the US economy. Additionally, reports that Washington is set to block NVIDIA’s sale of scaled-back AI chips to China introduced a fresh layer of trade-related risk. On the Fed, Williams avoided remarks on near-term policy. Ahead, on the data front, Prelim University of Michigan sentiment data for November is likely to see the headline slip to 53.2 from 53.6, conditions rise to 59.2 from 58.6. DXY is consolidating modestly above recent lows, with the index last around the 99.85 mark and well within Thursday’s hefty 99.67-100.11 range.
• EUR/USD found resistance at 1.1550 but is holding above the 1.15 handle, retaining the bulk of its recent gains following the USD’s broader retracement. Germany’s trade surplus this morning narrowed to EUR 15.3bln in September (exp. 16.8bln, prev. 17.2bln), with no notable move seen in the EUR. EUR/USD remains marginally within Thursday’s 1.1490-1.1552 range in a current 1.1530-1.1551 band.
• JPY is the clear laggard across the G10 space, retracing a portion of yesterday’s haven-driven gains. Overnight price action was choppy, with USD/JPY oscillating around the 153.00 mark amid a mix of lingering safe-haven demand and softer domestic data, as Japan’s Household Spending figures disappointed expectations. The pair now trades toward the upper end of a relatively contained 152.81–153.54 intraday range, compared to Thursday’s broader 152.83–154.14 parameters. Overall, price action suggests consolidation rather than fresh directional impetus.
• GBP/USD has eased modestly after yesterday’s advance, which came despite the BoE’s dovish hold and was largely driven by broader USD weakness. The pair briefly dipped below the 1.31 handle (low at 1.3097) after touching a session high of 1.3142, marking a retracement from yesterday’s BoE-day range of 1.3042–1.3142. On the domestic front, Halifax data painted a firmer picture of the UK housing market, with prices rising +0.6% M/M in October (exp. +0.1%, prev. -0.3%), pushing annual growth to +1.9% Y/Y (prev. +1.3%). Fiscal headlines also drew attention, with reports that Chancellor Reeves told the Budget watchdog she intends to raise income tax as part of efforts to repair the public finances. Further speculation points to a potential 2p income tax increase paired with a targeted 2p National Insurance cut, alongside consideration of narrowing NI relief above GBP 50,270 and a possible reduction in the annual cash ISA allowance to GBP 12,000 (previously touted GBP 10,000 and from current GBP 20,000).
• Antipodeans are mixed today with the Aussie winning on the AUD/NZD cross, benefiting from stronger copper prices despite weak Chinese trade data. In brief, Chinese exports unexpectedly slipped for the first time since October; but it is worth caveating that the prior month surprised to the upside which captured some front-loading ahead of the Trump-Xi meeting, which has since passed without issue.

Fixed Income

• A contained start to the session for USTs but there is a modest bearish bias owing to the slightly constructive trade in US equity futures, though magnitudes are modest. A lot of Fed speak in recent trade. This morning, Williams spoke at an ECB conference, discussing reserve management bond buying as a technical operation. Ahead, we have remarks from Miran (voter) once again and Jefferson (voter). Jefferson, the more interesting of the two, as he generally has a dovish stance, so it will be pertinent to determine if his bias remains the same or has moderated, in the context of Powell’s hawkish press conference. Jefferson last spoke at the start of October and said that while not having BLS data was less than ideal, there was enough information to do the job and was confident in reaching the inflation target. Thus far, USTs in a 112-22 to 112-28 band notching downside of just 4+ ticks at most, comfortably within Thursday’s 112-10 to 112-30 confines.
• Bunds also experienced a slightly softer start to the day, as outlined above. Early doors, a strong set of German trade data for September sent Bunds to a 129.02 low. A strong series that bodes well for the German recovery narrative and follows on from a rebound in industrial production data for the September period (as expected). Nonetheless, the narrative for Germany remains one of structural weakness, but with some signs of a recovery emerging. Since, the move has extended marginally to a 128.99 base, matching the trough from Thursday and in reach of Wednesday’s WTD 128.96 low.
• Gilts opened on the backfoot, posting losses of just over 10 ticks before slipping further to a 93.10 low. If the move continues, we look to Thursday’s 93.03 WTD base. The pullback today comes after the upside seen on Thursday by the BoE, as while desks are aligning around a December cut as being the emerging base case, that view is contingent on the two sets of data and budget due before the December meeting. BoE’s Bailey due to speak once again today, though he is unlikely to add much vs his presser and subsequent media rounds on Thursday; full Newsquawk review available on the headline feed. Elsewhere, the budget remains in focus and an increase to income tax is now very likely following a Times article that Chancellor Reeves has reportedly told the watchdog she intends to increase the measure. She is reportedly considering a 2p increase to income tax and a 2p cut to NI, echoing reports on the weekend that suggested as much, in a bid to move the burden away from workers and onto other groups.

Commodities

• Crude benchmarks have reversed Thursday’s losses as risk sentiment continues to shift amid AI concerns and weak US labour market. WTI and Brent oscillated in a tight c. USD 0.20/bbl for the majority of the APAC session before bidding higher and remaining near session highs as European trade continues.
• After Thursday’s choppy price action, spot XAU has continued to grind higher throughout APAC trade and into the European session. XAU started the day at USD 3977/oz and bid higher straight from the open to a peak of USD 4003/oz before pulling back slightly to a low of USD 3985/oz. As the European session got underway, the yellow metal has extended higher and is currently trading at session highs at USD 4010/oz.
• Base metals are trading rangebound as the European session gets underway, and as it steadies from Thursday’s risk-off environment. 3M LME Copper continues to oscillate in a tight USD 10.68k-10.75k/t band as the market awaits a new catalyst.
• Chinese Securities Regulator approved registration of platinum and palladium futures and options.
• Morgan Stanley says new projects successfully coming online in H1-2026 will be the catalyst for Dutch TTF to move below EUR 30/MWh by H2-2026.

Geopolitics

• US President Trump said Iran has been asking if US sanctions can be lifted, while he responded ‘very soon’, when asked when the international stability force for Gaza will be on the ground.
• US President Trump said he held a great call with Israeli PM Netanyahu and Kazakhstan’s President Tokayev, while Trump noted that Kazakhstan is the first country of his second term to join the Abraham Accords and the first of many, with more nations lining up to embrace peace and prosperity through my Abraham Accords.
• Ukrainian ambassador said her country is engaged in “positive” talks about buying Tomahawk missiles and other long-range weapons
• US Senate voted 51-49 to block a measure barring US President Trump from launching war on Venezuela.
• Japan’s government said North Korea fired what could be a ballistic missile which fell shortly after, while Japanese PM Takaichi said North Korea’s missile likely fell outside of Japan’s exclusive economic zone.

US Event Calendar

• 10:00 am: Nov P U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 53, prior 53.6
• 3:00 pm: Sep Consumer Credit, est. 10.23b, prior 0.36b
• 7:00 am: Fed’s Jefferson Speaks on AI and Economy
• 3:00 pm: Fed’s Miran Speaks on Stablecoins and Monetary Policy

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Although the market feels a bit tired at the moment I’m positively bouncing this morning as last night was the first time in a couple of weeks that I haven’t woke up around 2-3am in pain after my recent back operation. However if you really want to understand pain, last night I was trying to teach two 8-yr olds decimals. It was 99.999999% excruciating.
In a parallel universe, and one where I don’t have to teach Maths, we would this morning be eagerly awaiting the US payrolls report later today. But with its extended absence from the calendar, the past couple of days have seen outsized market reactions to second-tier US employment data that would normally serve as the amuse-bouche to today’s main event.

Wednesday saw a sharp yield sell-off following a solid ADP employment report and then better ISM services data. However, that move was completely reversed yesterday after a weak US job cuts release, with the 10yr Treasury yield falling -7.6bps — its biggest daily decline since the US-China trade escalation on October 10. This triggered a global risk-off move, with the S&P 500 down -1.12%, the Nasdaq off -1.90% and the Stoxx 600 -0.70%. Pricing of a Fed rate cut in December rose to 70% (+8pp on the day).

Starting with the US data, investors were rattled by the Challenger, Gray & Christmas report showing October job cuts up +175.3% year-on-year, totalling 153,074 — the highest October figure since 2003. Meanwhile, Revelio Labs’ payroll estimate dropped -9.1k, driven largely by -22.2k losses in government employment. These figures contrasted with Wednesday’s more upbeat ADP and ISM services data than expected.

The backdrop led to a strong rally in Treasuries, with the 10yr yield down -7.6bps to 4.08%, and similar declines for the 2yr (-7.6bps) and 30yr (-5.8bps). Normally, private data prints don’t move markets this much, but the government shutdown has amplified their impact. Equities saw broad declines, with the Russell 2000 down -1.86%, the S&P 500 -1.12%, and the Nasdaq -1.90%. The Magnificent 7 dropped -2.02%, led by Nvidia’s -3.65% decline while Tesla fell -3.50%. The latter move came before Tesla’s shareholders approved Elon Musk’s new pay package yesterday evening. This could reach a remarkable $1 trillion if Tesla hits all the maximum milestones that include a more than quintupling of its market cap to $8.5trn.

While the equity losses were more modest outside of tech, other risk assets also struggled, with US HY credit spreads rising +7bps, while Bitcoin sunk -2.49%. The VIX volatility index briefly moved above the symbolic 20 level before ending the day at a three-week high of 19.50 (+1.49pts on the day).

Central bank pricing was also affected, with futures raising the probability of a December rate cut to 70%, up from 62% the day before. Looking further out, the number of cuts priced by December 2026 rose +8.2bps to 85bps, weakening the dollar index by -0.47%. These moves came despite hawkish-leaning remarks by Fed officials. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee noted labour market stability and expressed caution about further rate cuts given the lack of inflation data due to the shutdown. Cleveland Fed President Hammack again struck a hawkish tone, focusing on inflation risks and suggesting that the Fed’s stance was “barely restrictive”. St Louis Fed President Musalem similarly said the policy was now “somewhere between modestly restrictive and neutral”.

With all the uncertainty around the state of the US economy, it’s interesting to highlight a couple of the latest reports by our economists that go against some of the prevailing narratives. In the first (see here), our Chief US Economist Matt Luzzetti finds that labour market data do not support the narrative of labour hoarding as a driver of the recent low firing regime. In the second (see here), Peter Sidorov looks at the two-speed US economy through the lens of the credit cycle and argues that the underperforming rate-sensitive sectors are more likely to see improvement than further deterioration over the coming quarters. So food for thought.

Turning to the US shutdown, hopes for resolution swung back and forth over the past 24 hours. Senate Majority Leader John Thune has proposed a Senate vote today on a new continuing resolution that would re-open the government through January. According to reports, this would include a three-bill spending package covering some items that have been negotiated with Democrats but not the extension of expiring health subsidies. Politico reports that Democrats are expected to block today’s procedural vote, seeing Tuesday’s weak election performance by the Republicans as reducing the need to rush to give up negotiating power. Still, it’s a developing story to watch today and into the weekend. Polymarket currently assigns a 55% chance of resolution by November 15, and a 93% chance by November 30.

Over in Europe, the BoE held rates at 4% as expected, but the decision was more dovish than anticipated. The vote split 5-4, with four members favouring a 25bp cut. Governor Bailey noted that September’s 3.8% inflation was “likely to be the peak.” Our UK economist highlights that the BoE’s forward guidance now states that “if progress on disinflation continues, Bank Rate is likely to continue on a gradual downward path,” with the word “careful” removed, which had been there alongside “gradual”. See our economist’s review of the meeting here and updated views. Gilt yields fell across the curve, with the 10yr down -2.9bps, a larger move than seen in European peers. 

Elsewhere in Europe, equities declined amid weak data and some renewed concerns about France. Euro Area retail sales for September fell -0.1% (vs. +0.2% expected), German industrial production rose +1.3% (vs. +3.0% expected), and UK construction PMI came in at 44.1 (vs. 46.9 expected). This contributed to the risk-off tone, with the STOXX 600 down -0.70%, the DAX -1.31%, the FTSE 100 -0.42%, and the CAC 40 -1.36%. Bond yields followed suit, with 10yr bunds (-2.3bps), OATs (-1.1bps), and BTPs (-1.1bps) all lower.

Asian markets opened very weak this morning but are recovering a bit as I type with US futures edging higher. The Kospi (-2.06%), Nikkei (-1.71%), Hang Seng (-0.92%), and S&P/ASX 200 (-0.66%) are all in negative territory but above their low. Mainland Chinese equities are fairly flat even as China’s exports contracted unexpectedly, with yoy exports at -1.1% (vs. +2.9% expected) and yoy imports at +1.0% (vs. +2.7% expected). Electrical exports were down -8% mom which hints at the fact that we might be seeing payback for earlier front loading ahead of tariffs. Mainland Chinese equities have clawed back earlier losses to be broadly flat though. S&P 500 (+0.20%) and Nasdaq (+0.28%) futures are recovering this morning and 10yr USTs are back up +1.5bps to 4.10%.

Looking ahead today, data releases include Germany and France’s September trade balances, and Canada’s October employment report. Central bank speakers include the Fed’s Williams, Jefferson and Miran, the ECB’s Nagel and Elderson, and the BoE’s Pill. Earnings releases include Constellation Energy and KKR.

Weeks after O’Keefe Media Group released a bombshell investigation exposing how ATI Government Solutions exploited minority-preference programs to secure $100 million in no-bid federal contracts, while subcontracting out most of the work, the Wall Street Journal reports a significant new development: the U.S. Treasury Department has launched an investigation into $9 billion in small-business contracting amid alarming concerns over fraud and abuse in preference-based programs.

Treasury investigators are focusing on pass-through companies that have misused preference-based contracting programs, including the Small Business Administration’s 8(a) Business Development Program. The 8(a) program allows qualifying individuals, those who own at least 51% of their companies and have personal net worths below $850,000, to obtain no-bid federal contracts.

BREAKING: U.S. Treasury Department launches investigation into 8(a) small business contracts worth $9 billion following O’Keefe Media Group undercover sting.

Officials say firms may have funneled deals through small business “pass-through” schemes – prompting Treasury & the SBA… https://t.co/3dezCYl5lr

— James O’Keefe (@JamesOKeefeIII) November 7, 2025

Bloomberg quoted SBA Administrator Kelly Loeffler as saying her team directed an audit of the 8(a) program, finding what they believe is “rampant fraud – and increasingly egregious instances of abuse.” 

Loeffler noted, “This administration will not tolerate DEI-based contracting and abuse that compromises opportunity for legitimate and eligible small businesses.” 

WSJ quoted Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent as saying, “Treasury will not tolerate fraudulent misuse of federal contracting programs,” adding, “These initiatives must benefit legitimate small businesses that deliver measurable value to the government and the public.”

In June, SBA Administrator Kelly Loeffler launched a formal investigation into the 8(a) program following mounting allegations of fraud. Then, last month, James O’Keefe released a bombshell undercover report exposing how ATI Government Solutions exploited minority-preference programs to rake in more than $100 million in no-bid federal contracts.

$100 Billion Federal Contracting Scam Exposed: 8(a) Firm Admits to Violating Federal Law, Using Minority-Owned Status as a Front to Obtain $100M+ No-Bid Government Contracts While Outsourcing 80% of the Work.

ATI Government Solutions Contract Manager, Melayne Cromwell Admits to… pic.twitter.com/o7EQ6mKZtY

— James O’Keefe (@JamesOKeefeIII) October 20, 2025

Last month, Loeffler and Bessent jointly said the Treasury would suspend all contracting activity with ATI Government Solutions in response to O’Keefe’s reporting. 

The latest data from Bloomberg Government shows that obligations tied to 8(a) vendors hit a record $41 billion in fiscal year 2024, with the Pentagon awarding about half of that. 

It’s long been an open secret in the Capital Beltway that some firms use pass-through entities or front companies to secure contracts they wouldn’t otherwise qualify for. This is precisely the kind of corruption the American people gave President Trump a mandate to dismantle, rooting out the parasites that leech off taxpayers.

And by the way, Dear White House:

DEAR TRUMP TEAM @WhiteHouse @RapidResponse47

Under 40 Trump Approval spiked EXACTLY when @DOGE interest spiked.

Dismantle the status quo with reckless abandon, or it’s socialism for the youth. https://t.co/i2g24sZFxB pic.twitter.com/9PdNXqqTB8

— Mark Mitchell, Rasmussen Reports (@honestpollster) November 6, 2025

“Dismantle the status quo with reckless abandon, or it’s socialism for the youth,” Mark Mitchell of Rasmussen Reports wrote on X. 

Authored by via Paul Birch via The Daily Sceptic,

It’s become an all-too-familiar tale. An individual who, at this stage, is thought to have been known to the police and mental health services, is alleged to have carried out a random, marauding knife attack.

Anthony Williams appeared in court this week charged with 11 counts of attempted murder after multiple stabbings occurred on a Doncaster to London train on Saturday November 1st in an incident which has shocked the nation. The 11th count is for a separate alleged attack against a 14 year-old that took place on the Docklands Light Railway in east London earlier the same day, as we’ve since learnt. Thankfully, at the time of writing, nobody has died as a result of these attacks.

These incidents follow several high-profile cases where men of black African heritage who were known by the authorities to be dangerous have been allowed to roam free in the community, either as a result of clinical decisions or ineptitude, and who have gone on to commit some of the most shocking crimes in modern history.

There was Zephaniah McLeod, who murdered 23 year-old library intern Jacob Billington during unprovoked attacks on eight people in Birmingham in September 2020. McLeod had been released from prison months earlier with no restrictions or supervision, despite experiencing delusions, refusing to take medication and making weapons in his cell.

Pensioner Thomas O’Halloran was killed by Lee Byer in August 2022 while Byer was suffering from ‘demand delusions’ and only five days after his being released from prison.

Valdo Calocane, in June 2023, fatally stabbed students Barnaby Webber and Grace O’Malley-Kumar and caretaker Ian Coates during a rampage on the streets of Nottingham. He had not been forced to take injectable anti-psychotic medication because he “did not like needles”, a report on his care found. In addition, he was allowed to live in the community despite the fact that he had a history of violence, and did not even agree that he was mentally ill.

The most notorious of all is, of course, Axel Rudakubana, responsible for the slaughter of children Alice da Silva Aguiar, Bebe King and Elsie Dot Stancombe at a Taylor Swift-themed dance class in Southport, Liverpool, in July 2024. There had been ample warning signs leading up to the atrocity. Axel Rudakubana first became known to a range of agencies in 2019. He was permanently excluded from school after telling Childline that he was being racially bullied and was bringing a knife into school to protect himself. After his exclusion, he returned to the school and assaulted someone with a hockey stick. Later that same year, Rudakubana again contacted Childline and asked: “What should I do if I want to kill somebody?”

The list could go on, but suffice to say that more people would probably be alive today had it not been for serious failings in Britain’s mental healthcare system, along with other arms of the state. We can be reasonably confident that a lack of funding is a major factor in all of this, and it is cited by many mental health professionals as a factor in the decline of care quality. But with all these disturbed, violent individuals being black, could ‘anti-racist’ sensibilities also be playing a part in these failings?

We know that much of the political class sees the rate at which black people are sectioned as itself a problem. In 2021, the then Conservative health secretary Matt Hancock proposed reforming the Mental Health Act to address the disproportionality in the sectioning of black people compared with their white counterparts, and, in its 2024 manifesto, the Labour Party promised “targeted interventions to reduce the disproportionate detention rates of black individuals under the Mental Health Act”.

When I was a police constable in London, I was involved in the sectioning of a number of people under the Mental Health Act.

On each occasion, it was the informed decision of the duty officer (an inspector) and the officers on the ground that the individual in question posed a physical risk to either themselves or members of the public.

Nearly all were black men, and nearly all were known to mental health services.

Are we now saying that the professional assessments of duty officers, whose primary concern is supposed to be public safety, are to play second fiddle to political considerations? Rather than taking necessary robust action, an inspector today might well be mindful of such absurdities as the Police Race Action Plan, a product of the ideologically captured College of Policing, which asks officers to “consider the levels of disproportionate contact between the police and Black people suffering mental distress”. Certainly, if that inspector were keen on promotion, he or she would at least be hesitant.

I’m sure some will say that to blame ‘woke’ officialdom is a knee-jerk, Right-wing reaction and there’s nothing to see here. So how does one explain the response to one of Rudakubana’s former headteacher’s education plan for him? 

Joanne Hodson described Rudakubana as “sinister, cold and calculating”. An unnamed mental health worker challenged this assertion and accused Hodson of racially profiling “a black boy with a knife”.

Hodson told the Southport Inquiry that the accusations succeeded in shutting her up, even though she had a “visceral sense of dread” that Rudakubana was building up to “something”. We will never know what the outcome would have been had she not been silenced.

Mental health outcomes and experiences can vary significantly across different ethnic groups in the United Kingdom. The question of why black people may be more likely to suffer from mental health issues, yet often not be sectioned under the Mental Health Act when they should have been, is an undoubtedly complex one. But progressive dogma should have no place in decision-making where psychotic individuals are concerned. People’s lives depend on it.

Paul Birch is a retired police officer who spent 24 years in the Metropolitan Police, 16 of which in counter-terrorism. You can watch his recent interview with the Sceptic here, and subscribe to his Substack here.

Submitted by Thomas Kolbe

The German economy is sinking ever deeper into recession. In its latest business survey, the Institute of the German Economy (IW) now also sees mounting pressure on the labor market. Meanwhile, no reforms are expected from policymakers.

The Cologne-based IW has published its semi-annual business survey among more than 2,500 companies—and the results could hardly be more sobering. The new analysis, presented over the weekend, paints a grim picture of the state of the German economy: the recession is deepening across all sectors. No part of the economy remains untouched.

No turnaround in sight for investments

Particularly revealing is the view on corporate investment behavior and workforce planning. Depending on the sector, 36 to 41 percent of companies plan to cut jobs next year—with the situation in industry especially alarming: 41 percent actively expect workforce reductions. Only 18 percent of companies are even considering expanding jobs.

The loss of industrial jobs already reached alarming levels last year: 70,000 positions were cut in core industrial sectors, from automotive to mechanical engineering. This trend is likely to intensify in the coming years unless German location policy is fundamentally corrected.

Three prominent examples illustrate the scale: Volkswagen plans to cut around 35,000 jobs by 2030. Bosch aims to reduce roughly 22,000 positions in the same period. Siemens has announced another 3,000 job cuts in the coming years.

And these are only the high-profile companies visible in the media. The IW survey sheds light on the “engine room” of the economy—the Mittelstand (SMEs). It confirms what insolvency statistics already reveal: Germany is expected to see around 25,000 corporate bankruptcies this year, a new record.

The foundation of German industry is cracked. Chain reaction to follow

The reduction in industrial jobs is more than a statistic—behind the raw numbers lies a dangerous social imbalance. These jobs represent high value creation, technological substance, and international competitiveness. Their disappearance typically triggers a chain reaction: for every industrial job lost, roughly four more positions in suppliers, service sectors, and consumer-related areas come under pressure.

The loss will also affect tax revenues once the effects of recent tax hikes are accounted for.

This sentiment is immediately reflected in investment plans: roughly one-third of companies plan to invest less next year, while only 23 percent plan to increase their investments in Germany.

Regionally, the picture is split: while northern Germany and Bavaria show cautious optimism, the northeast and industrial regions like North Rhine-Westphalia show no signs of recovery.

The IW report hits the German government at the worst possible time. Despite massive debt-financed government spending, no growth was reported for the third quarter.

Economic policymakers face a hard lesson: wealth is not generated by artificially created government demand, but solely through private-sector investments in free markets.

And this is precisely where the IW analysis hits the nail on the head. It shows that policymakers have failed to stimulate private investment, even alongside the multibillion-euro debt program. On the contrary, the trend continues downward.

Recession manifests itself

IW economist Prof. Michael Grömling sums it up: “The German economy remains in a deep recession.” This, he says, is a serious warning—for the labor market as well as the overall economy.

The main brakes, according to Grömling, lie on the investment side. He calls for what many entrepreneurs see as essential: a reduction of bureaucratic hurdles. Added to this are structural issues such as high energy prices, rising raw material costs, and increasing global trade tensions, a burden that noticeably weakens Germany’s competitiveness.

It is noteworthy that only the U.S. managed to push China into temporarily shelving the threat of a rare earth export ban—not German politics. This highlights a structural leadership problem in Berlin and Brussels.

European policymakers have simply failed to develop a trade strategy that serves the interests of exporters—diversification, new markets, and solid partnerships. Instead, attention on the Mercosur agreement with South America, which promised growth impulses, has largely faded.

Again and again, Brussels prioritizes climate protectionism, even at the expense of domestic industry. For an economy like Germany, whose prosperity depends heavily on exports, this risks exacerbating recessionary tendencies.

Where is the bureaucracy reduction?

Problems exist everywhere. The debate over cutting bureaucracy has stalled, as has nearly every other reform promised by the government. Just weeks ago, the Chancellor pledged to reduce annual bureaucratic burdens of €60 billion by 25% and shrink the public sector by 8 percent.

In reality, around 100,000 new public-sector positions were created over the past year, and since 2020, half a million additional employees have been added at taxpayer expense. The technological dividend of AI and automation remains invisible—so far, taxpayers see none, quite the opposite.

These announcements are now largely forgotten. The topic is de facto dead—likely because the government’s new debt package, pumping €50 billion into the system each year, requires further expansion of the state apparatus rather than streamlining it.

Status quo defended

The IW survey shatters any hope of a rapid economic recovery. At its core, it confirms what has been visible for years: over-bureaucratization amid green transformation, growing fiscal burdens, and a self-inflicted energy crisis—triggered by the exit from cheap Russian gas, the end of nuclear power, and a grotesquely centralized energy market design that requires ever more state intervention to compensate for renewable energy volatility.

The problem is structural, deeply embedded, and permeates operational processes. Even a heavily subsidized industrial electricity price will not stop Germany’s deindustrialization. The necessary breakthrough lies not in Berlin, but in Brussels—and concerns the entire eco-socialist regulatory complex.

Until the EU has the courage to return to free-market principles, nothing will change economically.