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Trump’s Next National Strategy Will Center On Humanoid Robots

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Trump’s Next National Strategy Will Center On Humanoid Robots

President Trump’s national industrial strategy centers on expanding U.S. dominance in semiconductors, AI, rare earth production, clean technology, space, and other emerging technologies expected to dominate the global economy in the 2030s. Following the administration’s push to accelerate AI data center buildouts and power grid upgrades, Politico now reports that the next major focus is poised to be humanoid robotics.

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has been meeting with the heads of major tech companies and is weighing an executive order next year to spur domestic development and production of humanoid robots, while the Department of Transportation is setting up a robotics working group, according to Politico sources.

The timing is notable: Elon Musk’s Tesla is preparing to scale production of its Optimus robot to one million units by the end of next year. Earlier this fall, Tesla reportedly placed a massive order for linear actuators from China, suggesting that Optimus production is set to ramp up in the near term.

A Department of Commerce spokesperson told the outlet: “We are committed to robotics and advanced manufacturing because they are central to bringing critical production back to the United States.”

Politico explains more about Trump’s emerging national robotics strategy that could be unveiled early next year:

There’s growing interest on Capitol Hill as well. A Republican amendment to the National Defense Authorization Act would have created a national robotics commission. The amendment was not included in the bill. Other legislative efforts are underway.

Related: 

Latest reports:

The Trump administration understands that this period is a transformational moment in human history, and a point where a national strategy is essential to rapidly boost industrial capacity and position the U.S. as the leader in AI, robots, drones, and chips as the world fractures into a bipolar state amid a technological superpower race with China that goes into hyperdrive over the next decade.

Last week, Morgan Stanley analyst Shawn Kim showed clients that adoption of humanoid robots will top 1 billion units by 2050.

Kim explained:

In their Global Insight report published earlier this year, Morgan Stanley’s global Autos and Industrials teams estimated that global cumulative humanoid adoption could reach 1 billion by 2050. They generally assume a relatively slow pace of adoption until the mid-2030s, after which they believe the pace will begin to materially accelerate into the late 2030s and 2040s, given (1) technological progress across both hardware and AI foundation models, which may take over a decade to create “true” general-purpose humanoids capable of doing the vast majority of useful tasks; (2) price declines as technologies mature and supply chains develop; and (3) greater societal/political acceptance.

ZeroHedge Pro subs can read the full MS report in the usual place. It’s loaded with deeper inudstry analysis and charts that lay out where the whole industry is headed through 2050 as the Trump administration prepares to unveil its national strategy – this report is a must-read.

What Trump is doing today is preparing the nation for the 2030s. Supply chains must be localized, rare earths must be plentiful, and the U.S. must have the industrial capacity to build these innovative technologies domestically or on friendly shores. What you see today is proper stewardship of the nation, versus the previous administration that was so obsessed with nation-killing globalist policies.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 12/04/2025 – 22:10

‘They Saw People Getting Away With It’: How Minnesota’s Somali Fraud Exploded

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‘They Saw People Getting Away With It’: How Minnesota’s Somali Fraud Exploded

Authored by Janice Hisle via The Epoch Times,

When 200 federal agents raided dozens of Minnesota homes and businesses on Jan. 20, 2022, policy analyst Bill Glahn took notice. So did a lot of other people—at first.

Aimee Bock (C), founder and executive director of the nonprofit organization Feeding Our Future, arrives at the Minneapolis federal courthouse with her attorney, Ken Udoibok (R) in Minneapolis on March 19, 2025. Kerem Yücel/Minnesota Public Radio via AP

An initial blast of news coverage trumpeted an emerging multimillion-dollar welfare-fraud scandal. Then “it just vanished from the radar” of most media outlets and public consciousness, Glahn told The Epoch Times. “The stories just dried up,” and reporters moved on to cover other topics.

Glahn, however, said it was obvious to him that “this was a pretty big deal … something to keep an eye on.”

Thus, for nearly four years, Glahn and a few independent journalists continued digging into what he calls “a whole portfolio of fraud.” He has documented nearly $662 million in fraud losses on the “Minnesota scandal tracker” for his employer, Center of the American Experiment, a public policy nonprofit in Minneapolis.

Yet federal prosecutors say welfare-fraud schemes have reaped billions of dollars in taxpayers’ money. Most of the defendants charged are of Somali heritage—a fact that has been taboo to report, Glahn said, even after dozens of Somalis were convicted in Minnesota welfare-fraud cases.

Fear of facing allegations of “racism” deterred whistleblowers, news outlets, and public officials who dared to raise concerns about fraud among Somalis, he said. Thus, the problem didn’t get the attention it deserved.

While hundreds or even a couple thousand Somalis may have been wrapped up in the schemes, Glahn emphasized that many Somalis are just as outraged as other taxpayers are; they have cooperated with him and with authorities to expose the fraudsters.

Thus, he said, “There is a Somali-fraud problem in Minnesota, but that doesn’t mean there is a Somali problem in Minnesota.”

Terror Allegations

In recent weeks, the schemes that had gone largely unnoticed on the national stage began to attract national attention.

City Journal—a publication of the Manhattan Institute for Policy Research—produced a bombshell story that prompted President Donald Trump to cut off deportation protections for Somalis in Minnesota.

The article asserted that, when Somali fraudsters sent stolen funds back to their homeland, the Somali terror group, Al-Shabaab, had been taking a “cut,” perhaps unbeknownst to the original sender.

Glahn, a former Federal Reserve systems analyst, told The Epoch Times he believes “with 100-percent certainty” that Al-Shabaab is receiving the money, most likely despite the senders’ intentions to benefit their friends and relatives back home.

He bases that declaration on multiple factors, including his knowledge of the money-transfer process, information he gathered from Somalis, and evidence disclosed in court cases.

On Dec. 1, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced that his office is investigating the fraud-for-terror allegation.

Glahn hopes that the increased scrutiny on multiple fronts will remedy welfare-system problems that have persisted for years.

The fraud cases also have political implications. Gov. Tim Walz appears to be facing headwinds over the scandals as he seeks reelection to a third term in office.

Bill Glahn, a policy fellow with Center of the American Experiment. Courtesy of Bill Glahn/Center of the American Experiment

A newly released Thinking Minnesota Poll shows that 56 percent of respondents “don’t think he’s done enough to prevent fraud in Minnesota.” And half of the respondents said “fraud will be a major factor in their vote for governor next year.” Walz has in the past denounced fraudulent use of welfare dollars, but has made no comments about the recent firestorm, other than taking jabs at Trump for his action.

Public records, along with statements from Glahn and a former fraud investigator, help show why Somali welfare-fraud snowballed in the North Star State despite early efforts to halt it.

‘A Green Light for Fraud’

After the 2022 federal raids, Glahn looked back at earlier scandals. He believes they set the stage for schemes that eventually emerged. The scope is now so overwhelming that federal prosecutors admit they lack the manpower to charge everyone involved.

Concerns over the federal Child Care Assistance Program being vulnerable to fraud date to 2009, according to a 2019 Minnesota report.

Specific concerns about Somali-run childcare programs in Minnesota exploiting those weaknesses surfaced around 2016, Glahn said.

By 2018, a Minnesota whistleblower and some media organizations were reporting that up to $100 million was being stolen via fraudulent childcare billing.

Those reports also alleged the stolen money was funding terrorist organizations in Somalia.

The Office of the Legislative Auditor was able to prove that about $6 million a year was lost to fraudulent child-care billing. The special review was unable to substantiate the terrorism-funding allegation, but cited factors that showed it was plausible.

“Federal regulatory and law enforcement agencies are concerned that terrorist organizations in certain countries, including Somalia, obtain and use money sent from the United States by immigrants and refugees to family and friends in those countries,” according to the special review.

The report also pointed out: “Federal prosecutions have convicted several individuals in Minnesota of providing material support to terrorist organizations in foreign [countries].”

People who alleged that Somalis were committing fraud were branded “racist,” Glahn said.

Perceptions spread throughout the Somali community and beyond. “They saw people getting away with it,” he said, so they thought they would try it, too.

“It seemed to be a ‘green light’ for fraud.”

“It totally emboldened people,” Glahn said, so they branched into other types of fraud.

Former Investigator Says Racism Claims a Factor

Kayseh Magan, a Somali American who formerly investigated Medicaid fraud for the Minnesota Attorney General, acknowledged in a 2024 Minnesota Reformer column an “uncomfortable” truth: Nearly all the defendants in the Feeding Our Future scandal were from the Somali community.

Feeding Our Future was a nonprofit that disbanded after authorities charged dozens of its affiliates with falsely claiming to provide meals to needy children. At least 78 people have been accused. Nearly 60 have been convicted. The stolen funds are estimated at $240 million or more.

Since then, more suspects have been charged in two more recent scandals. One case involves alleged theft of Medicaid money that was supposed to help the homeless. The other scandal centers on allegedly false claims that children with autism were receiving therapy. Instead, children were receiving fake “autism” diagnoses, and their parents were getting kickbacks for cooperating in the scheme, authorities said.

Magan explained that Somalis, fleeing civil war and famine in the 1990s, were drawn to Minnesota despite its “unforgiving winters.”

“Word spread that Minnesota is an inviting place, with generous social programs and a history of welcoming immigrants,” Magan wrote. Thus, Minnesota became home to the nation’s largest Somali community.

The group makes up only about 1 percent of the population but has been growing in political influence, partly because of the prominence of leaders such as Somali-born Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn).

Minnesotans quietly wondered why so many Somalis were caught up in fraud, Magan acknowledged. His response: “My experience as a fraud investigator has taught me that fraud occurs when desire meets opportunity.”

People who are poor or out of work become desperate; professionals whose credentials aren’t recognized in the United States are stuck with “menial jobs,” he said, yet they must support their families here and in Somalia financially.

“That covers the desire, and here’s where opportunity comes into play: Minnesota’s public programs don’t adequately guard against organized fraud,” he wrote.

Fraud-catching systems “are mostly designed to root out recipient fraud,” he said.

“It is exceedingly difficult to guard against providers who collude with recipients, which is the type of fraud most pervasive in the Somali community.”

Fraudsters also took advantage of “the feckless fear that establishment politicians and state agencies show when confronted with charges of racism or Islamophobia,” he wrote in that column last year.

In his most recent op-ed, Magan said that backlash over publicity about alleged childcare fraud in 2018 gave politicians “license to ignore warnings about fraud in public programs.”

However, in that same column, Magan denounced the City Journal report, saying it “appears to be little more than an effort by the right-wing propaganda machine to whip up hatred against Somali Americans.”

He also expressed skepticism over the article’s claim about ill-gotten gains ending up in Al-Shabaab’s coffers.

The Epoch Times sought comment from Christopher Rufo, a co-author of the City Journal article, but received no reply prior to publication time.

However, in a Nov. 25 City Journal article entitled “It’s Not ‘Racist’ to Notice Somali Fraud,” Rufo pushed back against attacks on the expose.

“Progressives have suggested that our reporting and the subsequent policy change were ‘racist,’” Rufo wrote. “While many of those indicted in these schemes are Somali, these critics argue, the federal government should not hold Minnesota’s Somali community corporately responsible for the actions of individuals.

“The truth is that numerous members of a relatively small community participated in a scheme that stole billions in funds,” Rufo wrote, saying this raises implications for American immigration policy, which “has favorably treated Somalis relative to other groups” for more than 30 years. He said cultural differences might help explain reasons for the extent of the Somali fraud networks.

“It is more than fair to ask whether that policy has served the national interest,” Rufo said. “The fraud story suggests that the answer is ‘no.’”

Tyler Durden
Thu, 12/04/2025 – 21:45

Did China Trigger A “DeepSeek Moment” In Hypersonic Missiles

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Did China Trigger A “DeepSeek Moment” In Hypersonic Missiles

China has triggered a “DeepSeek moment” in hypersonic weapons, unveiling cement-coated Mach-7 missiles that can be mass-produced for roughly $100,000 per unit. The development is setting off alarm bells within the U.S. military, which has yet to field a hypersonic weapon and cannot come anywhere close to matching such production costs.

The South China Morning Post reports that Chinese private aerospace firm Lingkong Tianxing introduced the YKJ-1000, a Mach-7 hypersonic glide weapon built almost entirely from civilian-grade materials to keep costs ultra-low.

Slides circulating on X claim the YKJ-1000 costs just $100,000 to produce. The economics are absolutely staggering because a U.S. SM-6 interceptor costs about $4 million per unit, a THAAD interceptor can run upwards of $15 million, and a Patriot PAC-3 can cost as much as $4.2 million.

“Developed by a private company rather than state-owned firms, demonstrating the success of China’s Military–Civil Fusion strategy,” one slide reads.

The economics of war shift dramatically when missiles become cheap. Low-cost hypersonic systems will reduce Beijing’s marginal cost of engagement. Just imagine: a swarm of YKJ-1000s would cost the U.S. or regional Asian allies hundreds of millions to shoot down in the event of a conflict.

The missile showcases how China leverages its civilian manufacturing base of low-cost sensors, BeiDou chips, off-the-shelf camera modules, die-cast structures, and other locally produced technologies.

“If this missile were introduced on the international defence market, it would be formidably competitive,” military commentator Wei Dongxu told state broadcaster CCTV earlier this week.

Dongxu added: “Many nations have yet to develop their own hypersonic missiles, and this one—with its long range, high destructive power, and strong penetration capability—would likely become a hot commodity due to its dirt-cheap price.”

If the report is accurate, then the “DeepSeek moment” for hypersonic missiles has officially arrived.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 12/04/2025 – 21:20

Useless U

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Useless U

Authored by Larry Sand via American Greatness,

A stunning new report from the University of California, San Diego, reveals that incoming college students are less prepared for their classes than ever. The steep decline in academic readiness among its first-year students is particularly noticeable in mathematics.

The UCSD paper shows that between 2020 and 2025, the number of students with math skills below high school level increased nearly thirtyfold. Additionally, 70% of these students are below the middle school level.

The decline is attributed to the COVID shutdown, the elimination of standardized testing, and grade inflation, all of which have resulted in an incoming class that is less prepared for the rigor expected at UCSD.

UCSD students who required remedial math had average high school GPAs that rose from 3.47 in 2019 to 3.65 in 2024. Therefore, not only are our schools passing students without equipping them with basic skills, but they are also inflating their sense of competence.

UCSD’s issues are not unique. Over the past five years, all other University of California campuses, including UC Berkeley and UCLA, have seen the number of first-year students who are unprepared for precalculus double or triple.

Regarding grade inflation, the situation is no better in other parts of the country. A recent internal Harvard report disclosed that over 60% of grades given to undergraduates in the 2024-25 academic year were A’s—up from about 25% twenty years ago. The median GPA at graduation, which was 3.29 in 1985, has now increased to 3.83.

Yale’s data are even worse: 80% of grades awarded in 2023 were “A” or “A-.”

Many students are opting out of college, which had an enrollment of 19.28 million undergraduate students in fall 2024, a decline of 8.43% from the peak of 21.0 million in 2010. Besides the decrease in college enrollment over the past 15 years, even fewer students are expected to attend in the next 15 years.

In a desperate attempt to fill seats, the Cal State system will admit students with C’s in college-prep courses—without requiring an application—starting next year, reports EdSource. “Direct admissions” students who accept the offer can select from 16 Cal State campuses, which are trying to boost attendance. Additionally, Cal State won’t consider SAT or ACT scores in admissions. (The most selective schools—San Jose State, San Diego State, Cal Poly San Luis Obispo, Cal Poly Pomona, Cal State Fullerton, and Long Beach State—are not included.)

For those who graduate from college, the job market is weak. Bloomberg reports that the latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics show a significant decline in white-collar jobs, especially for students with four-year degrees. These degrees now account for a record 25% of all unemployed, about 1.9 million people, the highest level since 1992.

The unemployment rate for bachelor’s degree holders rose to 2.8% in September, while joblessness for other education groups stayed relatively steady. Young degree-holders are experiencing the most impact: unemployment for ages 20 to 24 jumped to 9.2%, a rise rarely seen outside recessions.

It’s worth noting that going to college can be quite costly. The average annual per-student expense in the United States is $38,270, covering books, supplies, and living costs.

If a student attends a private, nonprofit university, they will spend, on average, $58,628 per year living on campus, with $38,421 of that going toward tuition and fees.

Considering student loan interest and lost potential income, investing in a bachelor’s degree can ultimately cost students’ families and taxpayers over $500,000.

What are some alternatives to traditional college?

There is one college-related program that connects employers with community colleges that might be worth trying if it is available in a student’s state. The Federation for Advanced Manufacturing Education began in 2010 as an experiment among several companies, including Toyota Motor Corp.’s Georgetown, KY factory, which was having trouble finding “middle-skill” workers to operate new technology. Today, nearly 400 employers participate in the program across 13 states.

BuildWithin, whose motto is “Potential over Credential,” makes it easier for employers and organizations to start professional apprenticeships and maximize skills-based hiring. In this model, employers hire young men and women who may not have a college degree but have the drive and innate talent to succeed.

A Philadelphia nonprofit has introduced new opportunities for students. Launchpad, a three-year career and technical education program, is not only free, but students also get paid for their work.

Next Prep, available at two high schools in St. Louis, is a pilot program that helps teens start early in figuring out what they might want to do after graduation. The class begins in ninth grade and focuses on exploring each student’s strengths and talents. Later, the class dives into careers by visiting employers and speaking directly with professionals. Hands-on and personal, the course aims to lay out the stepping stones from high school to a meaningful career.

High school graduates in California can join registered apprenticeships, which provide opportunities to get paid while learning a trade—like carpentry or plumbing—from skilled industry professionals, often leading to a job afterward. California’s Department of Industrial Relations (DIR) has traditionally offered apprenticeship programs in the building trades—bricklaying and carpentry, for example. But DIR also trains for careers in healthcare, technology, transportation, and firefighting, among others.

It’s time for students and their parents to reconsider whether a college degree is necessary. Unless a student is pursuing a career that requires higher education, it would be better for them, their families, and taxpayers to skip college and explore other options. They can acquire skills that will enrich their lives and, at the same time, help them become productive members of society.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 12/04/2025 – 20:55

Victim Mentality: Walz Whines About Driveby “Retard” Shoutings As Omar Suggests Trump Inciting Violence Against Her

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Victim Mentality: Walz Whines About Driveby “Retard” Shoutings As Omar Suggests Trump Inciting Violence Against Her

Leave it to Democrats to try spinning a billionaire fraud against the American people into an attack on… them.

The saga began late last month when Manhattan Institute senior fellow Christopher Rufo and reporter Ryan Thorpe published a bombshell report alleging widespread, large-scale fraud schemes exploiting Minnesota’s welfare programs, primarily involving members of the state’s Somali immigrant community.

The centerpiece of their reporting focused on the infamous Feeding Our Future scandal, the COVID-era child nutrition program fraud labeled by federal prosecutors as the largest pandemic-related scheme in the nation. Rufo and Thorpe reported how fraudsters allegedly stole at least $250–300 million by claiming to feed millions of children while providing few or no meals. Many of the indicted individuals—over 70 charged by late 2025, with dozens convicted or pleading guilty—were Somali-Americans. Funds were reportedly used for personal enrichment, including luxury cars and real estate in the U.S., Turkey, and Kenya.

Rufo and Thorpe’s reporting expanded the scope to other programs, including Medicaid-funded autism services (where claims skyrocketed from $3 million in 2018 to $399 million in 2023, with disproportionately high diagnoses among Somali children) and Housing Stabilization Services. Overall, the pair of journalists estimated billions in taxpayer dollars stolen across multiple schemes under Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz’s (D) watch.

The most shocking claim was that federal counterterrorism sources told Rufo that millions in stolen funds were remitted to Somalia via informal hawala networks, ultimately reaching the al-Qaeda-affiliated terrorist group Al-Shabaab.

Within days, President Donald Trump announced the revocation of Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for Somali migrants in Minnesota and referred to Walz as “seriously retarded” in a late-night Thanksgiving Day post on Truth Social.

In a Thursday press conference, Walz complained that people are driving past the governor’s residence shouting retard thanks to the president roasting him.

“This creates danger,” Walz said about Trump’s post. “I’ve never seen this before, people driving by my house and using the R-word in front of people.”

“This is shameful,” he continued. “I have yet to see an election official—a Republican election official— say, ‘you’re right, that’s shameful. He should not say it.’” “We know how things go,” he added. “They start with taunts, they turn to violence.”

Then on Wednesday night, Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-MN), who was born in Somalia and has deep ties to the Somali community in Minnesota, also played victim by claiming Trump calling Somalis “garbage” and demanding their deportation were creating a dangerous situation because his followers have “exhibited violence.”

“It creates fear. And there is a possible danger that a lot of the people who follow the president have exhibited violence in many cases, especially in my case, whenever he has said something about me that is derogatory or says I’m a threat to the country, I have gotten death threats,” Omar told CNN host Jake Tapper. “There are so many people that have been incarcerated over the years that have been encouraged by the president’s words. And so there is fear for Somalis, not just in Minnesota, but across the country, that some of these people might attack and harm them.”

What a couple of retards!

Tyler Durden
Thu, 12/04/2025 – 20:30

ICE Arrests (Another) Afghan National Accused Of Supporting ISIS

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ICE Arrests (Another) Afghan National Accused Of Supporting ISIS

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times,

Federal authorities on Wednesday arrested an Afghan national on suspicion of providing support to the ISIS terrorist group, the third such arrest in a week, according to a Department of Homeland Security (DHS) statement.

Jaan Shah Safi was arrested by Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents in Waynesboro, Virginia. Safi is an “illegal alien terrorist who entered the U.S. on Sept. 8, 2021, in Philadelphia” under President Joe Biden’s Operation Allies Welcome program, the statement said.

He had applied for Temporary Protected Status, but his application was terminated once DHS Secretary Kristi Noem ended TPS for Afghans.

The TPS was terminated in May as Afghanistan no longer met the requirements for the designation, and “DHS records indicate that there are recipients who have been under investigation for fraud and threatening our public safety and national security,” Noem said at the time.

The DHS said that Safi was also found to provide weapons to his father, a commander of a militia group back in Afghanistan.

The Epoch Times could not ascertain whether Safi was given any legal representation.

This is the third arrest of a suspected Afghan terrorist in about a week.

The first case was that of Rahmanullah Lakanwal, who was arrested Nov. 26 on suspicion of shooting two National Guard members in Washington. One of the victims, Sarah Beckstrom, died afterward, and the other, Andrew Wolfe, remains in serious condition.

Lakanwal had worked with the CIA during the war in Afghanistan. Authorities charged him with first-degree murder and two counts of assault with intent to kill, among other charges.

Noem said in a media interview that authorities believe Lakanwal became radicalized after he arrived in the United States through connections in his community and state.

A day before the attack and in a separate incident, Mohammad Dawood Alokozay was arrested and charged with making bomb threats.

Alokozay had posted social media videos threatening to blow up a target in Fort Worth, Texas.

The three are among 190,000 Afghan nationals who were resettled in the United States as part of Operation Allies Welcome, later renamed Enduring Welcome.

Regarding Safi, Noem said, “This terrorist was arrested miles from our nation’s capital where our brave National Guard heroes … were shot just days ago by another unvetted Afghan terrorist brought into our country.”

On Dec. 2, the Trump administration suspended the processing of immigration applications from 19 countries, including Afghanistan and Somalia, citing national security and public safety concerns.

The Epoch Times reached out to Afghan Support Network, a nonprofit that focuses on the welfare of Afghan refugees, for comment and did not receive a response by publication time.

Overhauling Vetting Process

When the United States withdrew from Afghanistan in August 2021, the Biden administration initiated the Operation Allies Welcome program to resettle thousands of Afghan nationals in the United States, including those who worked alongside U.S. authorities in the war-torn nation over the previous two decades.

“It’s the biggest national security failure in the history of the nation,” border czar Tom Homan said in a media interview on Sunday, noting that the DHS inspector general came out with a report at the time stating multiple failures in the vetting process.

“People need to understand, in these third world nations, they don’t have systems like we do. So a lot of these Afghans, who did get here to get better, they had no identification at all. Not a single travel document, not one piece of identification. And we’re going to count on the people that run Afghanistan, the Taliban, to provide us any information who the bad guys were or who the good guys are? Certainly not.”

Noem said in a Dec. 1 post on X that many Afghan nationals brought into the country were “military-aged men” who were not vetted for security clearance.

Homeland Security is currently overhauling the vetting process for aliens, requiring the country of origin to cross-reference biometric data and criminal history, screening social media accounts, and directing individuals to check in every year, Noem said.

According to the State Department’s travel advisory, Afghanistan’s security situation remains extremely unstable, with the highest critical-level threat to U.S. citizens.

All Afghanistan provinces are dangerous for travel, with targeted or random hostile acts perpetrated by the country’s citizens. “U.S. citizens and other foreign nationals are primary targets of terrorist organizations,“ warned the advisory.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 12/04/2025 – 20:05

The Problem With GDP

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The Problem With GDP

Authored by Alasdair Macleod via VonGreyerz.gold,

With signs of economic stagnation hard to ignore, politicians, economists, and even central bankers talk about the necessity for economic growth. Not only are they displaying economic ignorance, but by chasing something that is not a measure of production, they are bound to fail in their objectives.

The consequences for us all end in a crisis of reality. The errors of economic and monetary management by modern governments result in a credit crisis, which ultimately destroys their currencies. The signs that such a crisis is descending upon us are growing.

This article focuses on the delusions and destruction by macroeconomics: its principle objective is demonstrated to be an egregious error: to achieve economic growth. Being the sum of all recorded qualifying transactions over a period usually of a year, the measure of GDP is not of output, but of credit deployed in the economy. The error is to assume that all credit is deployed productively.

Credit recorded in GDP finances consumption, production (including investment), and government spending. Only credit for production and investment in it leads to price stability. But US industrial production is lower than in 2008, when on the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis’s total index, it was 102.38 compared with 101.27 last:

Separately, FRED shows that industrial investment increased by a paltry $100 billion since 2008.

Credit expansion to finance production, particularly of goods, is non-inflationary because it is employed to make goods better, cheaper and more relevant to evolving consumer desires. And if credit funding goods production and investment have gone nowhere in the last seventeen years, then the increase in GDP is misleading.

Since 2008, GDP has more than doubled to about $30,000 billion. With the exception of service industries, many of which add little value, the expansion of credit funds, excess consumption and government spending. Credit expansion to finance the credit bubble is excluded from GDP, which is a separate issue.

It should now be clear that economists and politicians trumpeting growth are being misled or misleading themselves into promoting inflationary policies. The only offset is savings. If consumers save instead of spending, then consumer prices will not be driven up so much by excess credit. But here the US’s record over time is dismal:

Other than the spikes during the COVID lockdowns, when no one could spend, the long-term savings trend is down. Not only are savings down, but consumer debt is up:

Using 2008 as our base, consumer debt has doubled, while production of goods has stagnated. So not only has the personal savings rate generally declined, but the expansion of consumer debt has been a driving factor behind growth in GDP.

That leaves government spending. Governments are notoriously bad distributors of economic resources, and nowhere is this more so than reflected in GDP. Total US Government spending is about 40% of GDP, with the federal government portion being 23%. At least state and local governments’ spending is more relevant to their communities, but federal government spending is not, and that is where trouble is mounting from wasteful spending, all of which is included in GDP. 

The easiest way to grow GDP is for the federal government to increase its useless and economically destructive spending, which undoubtedly encourages the political class to do so.

The deflator myth

Starting with nominal GDP, econometricians point out that it should be deflated for inflation. If nominal GDP is shown to grow by 5%, than an inflation rate of 2% reduces that to real growth of 3%. The deflator usually used is the consumer price index.

The temptation to bolster real GDP growth by tinkering with the CPI is irresistible. Various methods are used to achieve this outcome. The result is that the current US inflation rate is calculated by the Bureau of Labour Statistics to be 3%, while John Williams of Shadowstats, who uses the original 1980 basis of calculation, computes it as 12%. Taking nominal GDP growth currently estimated by the Congressional Budget Office of 4.5%, this changes “real” GDP growth from 1.5% to minus 7.5%.

Imagine the furore if that was admitted! But we can’t even believe this more realistic presentation of the contraction of the value of total credit deployed in the economy (for that is what it is), because in theory there is a general level of prices, but in practice, no such thing exists. Its construction is therefore purely subjective and can say anything a government statistician wants. Hence, the difference between Shadowstats’ 1980 basis and subsequent revisions.

Consequently, the idea that GDP growth, nominal or real, represents the economic progress we all desire gets even further away from the truth. Instead, we can explain how the real economy is being suppressed by statistical misrepresentation, despite GDP headlines.

The debt trap

If there is one thing GDP is genuinely useful for, it gives a nation’s lenders a basis for judging its creditworthiness. Put simply, if national debt is growing faster than its tax base — roughly measured by the growth in GDP — then the economy is in a debt trap. However, if we are realistic about the distortions in the numbers, then many of the G7 nations are already there.

The reason that debt traps are yet to be properly recognised by markets is that they have been captured by governments themselves. The entire macroeconomic myth, coupled with regulatory oversight, have engendered complacency, which eventually will be shattered. 

It happened in Britain the last time it had a far-left government. In 1976, sterling began to fall, and the IMF were called in to stabilise government finances. Inflation the previous year had hit 25% and bond yields had soared to over 16%. The problem was that without the IMF forcing the UK government to cut spending and raise taxes to generate a budget surplus, the dynamics of the debt trap would have driven gilt yields higher still.

 An understanding that GDP represents credit and not economic progress, and that most of its deployment is inflationary, tells us that the dollar and other major currencies already face debt traps. That is why central bankers in the know are selling currencies and buying gold.

Conclusion

Investors should be aware that the government statistics upon which they rely for guidance are thoroughly misleading. Nowhere is this truer than in GDP, the quicksand upon which macroeconomics is built. Distortion of the facts compounds distortions of the past. This is why the entire basis of economic analysis is misleading and is bound to end up in a general economic and credit crisis when reality returns.

For this reason, individuals should follow the actions of central banks and protect themselves from a looming credit crisis. That can only be done by getting out of credit and into real money without counterparty risk, which is only physical gold.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 12/04/2025 – 17:40

A Newsom Nihilist Nomination?

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A Newsom Nihilist Nomination?

Authored by Victor Davis Hanson via American Greatness,

As California Governor Gavin Newsom gears up to run for president, what in the world will he run on?

Californians know that Newsom will not boast, “I will do for America what I have done to California!”

Why not?

Count the reasons.

California’s astronomical gas prices and taxes remain the highest in the continental U.S.

Ditto the state’s trifecta of the highest electricity rates, the costliest home prices, and the fourth-highest home insurance costs.

California has the largest unfunded liability debt in the nation, approaching $270 billion.

The budget deficit each year usually ranges from $15 to $70 billion.

Such profligate spending and deficits explain why the state also has the highest income taxes and state sales tax rates in the nation.

Just 1% of California households pay 50% of the state income tax. And the fleeced are leaving in droves.

Newsom recently boasted that he extended Medi-Cal health insurance to thousands more illegal aliens.

So, no wonder Newsom next begged for a nearly $3 billion Medi-Cal federal bailout.

Half of the state’s 41 million residents are now on Medi-Cal. Some 50 percent of all births are Medi-Cal-provided—and growing.

California has a lot of other firsts among the 50 states:

  • The largest population of illegal aliens.

  • The largest number of homeless people.

  • The largest number of people fleeing a state.

  • The largest number (11 million) and percentage (27%) of foreign-born residents.

  • The largest number of people living in poverty.

  • The highest food prices in the continental U.S.

  • The state’s infrastructure is usually rated near the bottom.

  • California ranks among the five worst states in per capita violent crime.

Here are a few other observations about the current disaster that is Newsom’s California.

One, California is a naturally wealthy state. It is the third largest by area. It ranks seventh in the nation in oil reserves. No nation has more agricultural production or forested land acreage. So it’s hard to bankrupt California, but Newsom has managed.

Two, under prior governors Pat Brown, Ronald Reagan, George Deukmejian, and Pete Wilson, California used to be the best-run state in the country.

California once produced more oil than any other state except Texas.

Its now-moribund timber industry once used to be the third largest in the nation.

And its currently ossified mining and mineral industries were once among the top ten producers in the country.

Three, no state politician over the last three decades has been more responsible for California’s decline than Gavin Newsom: six years as governor, eight years as lieutenant governor, seven years as mayor of San Francisco, and seven years on the San Francisco Board of Supervisors.

Four, California chose decline. In the last thirty years, it drove out somewhere between 18 and 20 million affluent and middle-class state residents, the largest state exodus in U.S. history.

Its open border welcomed in an influx of over 10 million illegal aliens.

Meanwhile, Silicon Valley’s $11 trillion in market capitalization created the wealthiest and the most left-wing out-of-touch elite in the United States.

The result was a medieval state of a few million elites, a mass of poor people, and a vanishing middle class.

Five, such influxes and exoduses, along with gerrymandering, have ensured a one-party state. There are no Republican statewide officeholders.

Democrats control all branches of government. Only 17% of its congressional delegation is Republican. So the Left proudly owns what California has become.

What, then, will Newsom run on?

  • Certainly not high-speed rail—17 years, $15 billion, and not a foot of track laid.

  • Certainly not a $500-million exploding solar battery plant.

  • Certainly not illegally issuing 17,000 commercial truck driver’s licenses to non-resident illegal aliens with little or no English competency.

  • Certainly not the horrific but preventable Pacific Palisades fire.

  • And certainly not a now-closed $2-billion desert solar plant boondoggle.

Instead, Newsom will continue his he-man threats to Trump, like, “We’re going to punch this bully in the mouth.”

But will such bluster lower the state’s gas and power prices or reduce its sky-high taxes?

On social media and in podcasts, Newsom will continue his adolescent threats to federal officials like Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem while serving up his adolescent potty-mouth smears (e.g., “son of a b***h,” “god-d**n,” “f**k,” etc.).

But that profanity will not lower crime or house prices.

In other words, in the Democrat primaries, Newsom will try to out-crazy the violence, profanity, and extremism of the now-crazy Democrat socialists.

Newsom will rant nonstop about the evil Trump, but neither offer a word nor do a thing about his own responsibility for the collapse of a once great state.

Newsom will lecture on “affordability” without mentioning that he has created the most unaffordable state in the nation.

Will all this gobbledygook work?

It did in New York.

So, who knows?

Tyler Durden
Thu, 12/04/2025 – 17:00

Connecticut Orders Robinhood, Crypto.com, & Kalshi To Stop Prediction Markets

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Connecticut Orders Robinhood, Crypto.com, & Kalshi To Stop Prediction Markets

Connecticut’s Department of Consumer Protection issued cease-and-desist orders to Kalshi, Robinhood and Crypto.com, alleging that the platforms are conducting unlicensed online gambling there.

“Only licensed entities may offer sports wagering in the state of Connecticut,” DCP commissioner Bryan T. Cafferelli said in a statement on Wednesday.

“None of these entities possess a license to offer wagering in our state, and even if they did, their contacts violate numerous other state laws and policies, including offering wagers to individuals under the age of 21.”

DCP Gaming Director Kris Gilman accused the platforms of “deceptively advertising that their services are legal,” adding that they operate outside of the state’s regulatory environment, “posing a serious risk to consumers who may not realize that wagers placed on these illegal platforms offer no protections for their money or information.”

As CoinTelegraph’s Martin Young details below, prediction markets have come under legal scrutiny in several US states, as the use of these platforms has skyrocketed this year and attracted billions of dollars in investment for allowing users to bet on the outcome of a variety of events.

Prediction markets saw huge volumes in November. Source: Token Terminal 

Kalshi fires back in court

A Kalshi spokesperson told Cointelegraph that it is “a regulated, nationwide exchange for real-world events, and it is subject to exclusive federal jurisdiction.

“It’s very different from what state-regulated sportsbooks and casinos offer their customers. We are confident in our legal arguments and have filed suit in federal court,” Kalshi added.

In a complaint filed on Wednesday against the DCP, Kalshi claimed that “Connecticut’s attempt to regulate Kalshi intrudes upon the federal regulatory framework that Congress established for regulating derivatives on designated exchanges.”

[ZH: Kalshi is perhaps the most exposed in this suit given their massive push into sports predictions…]

It added that its platform was subject to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s “exclusive jurisdiction” and its sports event contracts “are lawful under federal law.”

“As we’ve previously shared, Robinhood’s event contracts are federally regulated by the CFTC and offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC, a CFTC-registered entity, allowing retail customers to access prediction markets in a safe, compliant, and regulated manner,” a Robinhood spokesperson told Cointelegraph.

Crypto.com did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

In its statement, Connecticut’s DCP said that prediction market platforms pose serious risks to consumers because they lack the required technical standards and security protections for financial and personal data.

Source: Connecticut Department of Consumer Protection

The agency claimed that such platforms also lack integrity controls to prevent insider betting or manipulation, operate without regulatory oversight of their payout rules, advertise to self-excluded gamblers and on college campuses, and permit betting on events with known outcomes, thereby giving insiders unfair advantages.

Only three platforms are legally licensed for sports wagering in Connecticut: DraftKings, FanDuel and Fanatics, all of which require users to be at least 21 years old.

Kalshi under fire in at least 10 US states

Connecticut is not the only state to take a hard stance on prediction platforms; regulators in two neighboring states have previously taken action. 

New York sent a cease and desist to Kalshi in late October, and the company responded on Oct. 27 by suing the state. Meanwhile, the Massachusetts state attorney general sued Kalshi in the state court in September. 

Kalshi also previously received cease and desist orders from Arizona, Illinois, Montana and Ohio this year, and it remains embroiled in ongoing litigation in New Jersey, Maryland and Nevada, reported Bookies.

Kalshi announced this week that it has closed a $1 billion funding round at a valuation of $11 billion, after seeing its best-ever monthly volume in November.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 12/04/2025 – 16:40

“Rage Bait” May Be The Word Of The Year, But Free Speech Remains The Target

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“Rage Bait” May Be The Word Of The Year, But Free Speech Remains The Target

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

George Bernard Shaw famously observed that “England and America are two countries separated by the same language.” It appears, however, that this chasm has finally been overcome by the common dialect of rage. The new word of the year was announced this week by the Oxford University Press and it is tragically apt: “rage bait.”

First used in 2002, the new word is defined as “online content deliberately designed to elicit anger or outrage by being frustrating, provocative, or offensive, typically posted in order to increase traffic to or engagement with a particular web page or social media content.”

The choice is certainly apropos of what I called in my recent book, The Indispensable Right: Free Speech in an Age of Rage.” Rage is a curious emotion. It is the ultimate release. It allows you to do things and say things that you would not otherwise do or say. That is why it is addictive and contagious.

Rage, however, can also be a license not just to rave but to regulate.

The key to rage is that it is entirely subjective and relative. If you agree with a speaker, it is righteous. If you disagree, it is dangerous.

That relativism was evident in Oxford’s own press release on the selection of the word. 

Casper Grathwohl, President of Oxford Languages, associated the term with “manipulation tactics we can be drawn into online.”

He slammed “internet culture” for “hijacking and influencing our emotions.”

Grathwohl warned that it is an extension of what is called “rage-farming… to manipulate reactions and to build anger and engagement over time by seeding content with rage bait, particularly in the form of deliberate misinformation of conspiracy theory-based material.”

If you listen carefully, you can almost hear the “here, here” grunts of the British censors.

Great Britain and other European countries have eviscerated free speech through criminalization and regulation for decades. The Internet is a particular obsession of the anti-free speech movement. The greatest single invention since the printing press, the Internet is a threat to countries and groups that want to control speech.

The new scourge is hidden “algorithms” that elevate certain postings. While liberals like Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D., Mass.) have called for social media companies to use algorithms to encourage people to choose better books, the left accuses these companies of fueling divisions but creating forums for views that it considers “disinformation, misinformation, and malinformation.”

The difficulty is distinguishing content-based bias in algorithms (which is rightfully condemned) from systems that simply elevate more popular posts. If social media is merely favoring more popular speech, the problem with critics is not with the bait but their own failure to attract nibbles from those surfing the web.

The fact is that these companies profit from traffic and favor posts that customers are most interested in reading. That drives activists to distraction because they believe their views are healthier and superior for citizens to discuss.

These are really calls for “enlightened algorithms” to favor truth, as defined by governments and supporting experts. That is not “hijacking” but liberating; it is not “rage bait” but reasoned debate. It is that easy.

Any disliked image or view can be deemed rage bait. The same week that Oxford was choosing rage bait, there was another story of how free speech is in a free fall in the United Kingdom.

Jon Richelieu-Booth told the Yorkshire Post that he was arrested for posting a picture on the networking site LinkedIn of himself holding a shotgun at a friend’s homestead in Florida. West Yorkshire Police allegedly warned him about the post and told him to be “careful” about what he says online and “how it makes people feel.” He was later arrested and spent months in the criminal justice system before the case was dropped.

It is an all-too-familiar story for those of us who have documented the decline of free speech in the UK.

The British police have arrested people for silently praying in public and a man was convicted for “toxic ideologies,” literal thought crimes.

The Times of London reported that police are making around 12,000 arrests per year over online posts.

Rage rhetoric has been with us since humans first learned to speak. The danger of rage rhetoric is rarely the rhetoric itself. It is the use of rage rhetoric by the government and others to silence citizens.

It is easy to say that certain postings are “bait” for rage. It is more difficult to agree on what rage is. While the left will denounce statements of Donald Trump as rage bait, they rarely object to such rhetoric from Hillary Clinton or Jasmine Crockett. The same is often true on the right. Each side views its own postings as reasoned debate and the other side’s as rage bait.

No one is being “hijacked” on the Internet. They are choosing their sources, and many create siloes or echo chambers. It is a common feature of “an age of rage.”

Oxford is clearly correct in the selection of a word that captures the age. However, it also captures the use of rage to rationalize censorship by treating viewpoints as harmful lures for the unsuspecting, unwashed masses. That desire to regulate speech is also often driven by rage, but it is embraced as reason.

Jonathan Turley is the Shapiro professor of public interest law at George Washington University and the author of the best-selling book “The Indispensable Right: Free Speech in an Age of Rage.”

Tyler Durden
Thu, 12/04/2025 – 16:20