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Israeli Troops Suffer Rare Casualties In Brazen Ground Raid On Syrian Town

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Israeli Troops Suffer Rare Casualties In Brazen Ground Raid On Syrian Town

Israel on Friday launched another unprovoked major attack on Syria, which has killed at least 13 people, including children – and additionally some 25 have been reported injured.

In this instance, the assault on the southern Syrian town Beit Jinn was a rare ground raid by Israeli forces, likely accompanied by air and artillery support.

IDF/TOI: Troops of the 55th Reserve Paratroopers Brigade detain a suspect in the southern Syrian village of Beit Jinn, early November 28, 2025. 

“The Israeli military said six soldiers were wounded, three of them severely, by militant fire during the raid in the village of Beit Jinn,” Reuters reports based on official sources. It’s unclear whether the IDF forces incurred fatalities, but if so the Israeli government is likely to keep it under wraps.

The Israeli dawn raid and strikes forced dozens of families to flee from the town in search of safer areas. The Syrian Foreign Ministry swiftly condemned “the criminal attack carried out by an Israeli occupation army patrol in Beit Jinn.”

The statement added, “The occupation forces’ targeting of the town of Beit Jinn with brutal and deliberate shelling, following their failed incursion, constitutes a full-fledged war crime.”

There are reports the Israeli assault also included artillery shelling – which may have been why there were so many civilian casualties:

The remains of at least five Syrians, including two children, were taken to the Golan National Hospital in the city of al-Salam in Quneitra, according to the Syrian Arab News Agency (SANA).

Israeli drones have also been active over the area. In post-Assad Syria, the IDF has encroached more and more on Syrian territory, expanding significantly beyond its Golan Heights occupation.

The Israeli military has described that the high-risk operation was launched to detain suspects belonging to Jama’a Islamiya – a Lebanese Sunni Islamist group which is alleged to have fired rockets at Israel from Lebanon during the Gaza war. The statement further charged the group “terrorist plots”.

This development constitutes a very rare instance of the IDF suffering so many casualties while operating in Syria, per Reuters:

In a statement posted on X, the Israeli military said six of its soldiers were wounded, three of them seriously in an exchange of fire.

The Israeli military added that while the operation has been “completed” and all suspects were either arrested or “eliminated”, its forces are still being deployed in the area “and will continue to operate against any threat” to Israel.

There’s a certain irony surrounding Israel’s sudden interesting in tracking down and rooting out Sunni Islamists near its border – given that for years during the regime change war against Assad Israel openly tolerated, and in some cases even supported, some of these very same jihadists.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 11/28/2025 – 17:00

From Oil War To ‘Major Non-NATO Ally’: Trump’s Extraordinary Saudi Pivot

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From Oil War To ‘Major Non-NATO Ally’: Trump’s Extraordinary Saudi Pivot

Authored by Simon Watkins via OilPrice.com,

  • Trump designates Saudi Arabia a “major non-NATO ally,” marking a dramatic turnaround from years of strained relations marked by an oil price war and diplomatic freezes.

  • In return, Washington expects Saudi Arabia to align more closely with U.S. interests.

  • The U.S. expects Riyadh to help keep prices within a “Trump Oil Price Range” of roughly $40–80 per barrel.

From the beginning of Donald Trump’s first term in office in 2017 to the start of his second term earlier this year, the relationship between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia shifted between tense and downright hostile.

Those years included an Oil Price War, the de facto Saudi leader labelled a murderer, and all lines of communication between the two sides grinding to a complete halt.

However, as Trump and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) sat next to each other at a black-tie dinner at the White House last week – with the former designating the latter’s country as “a major non-NATO ally” — all this must have seemed a distant past, and as L.P. Hartley put it: “They do things differently there”.

So, how does the future for the world’s top superpower and one of its top hydrocarbons powers look from here?

It is apposite to note here that this is not a meaningless designation from the U.S. for Saudi Arabia. Only 19 other countries — Argentina, Australia, Bahrain, Brazil, Colombia, Egypt, Israel, Japan, Jordan, Kenya, Kuwait, Morocco, New Zealand, Pakistan, the Philippines, Qatar, South Korea, Thailand, and Tunisia – have such a standing in Washington’s eyes. Taiwan also has the same de facto designation, but does not officially enjoy the label, given the U.S.’s complicated ‘One China’ policy. Saudi Arabia’s new-found status also brings with it a host of economic and military advantages in its dealings with the U.S. and its allies, according to the State Department. These include eligibility for ‘loans of material, supplies, or equipment for cooperative research, development, testing, or evaluation purposes’, as well as for being a location for the placing of U.S.-owned War Reserve Stockpiles.

Saudi Arabia will also now be able to enter into agreements with the U.S. for its security forces’ training on a bilateral or multilateral basis, will be eligible for the priority delivery of ‘excess defence articles’ (including C-130 Hercules aircraft or frigates, at low or zero cost), and for the purchase of depleted uranium ammunition.

It will also be entitled to enter into agreements with the U.S. Department of Defense for research and development projects on defence equipment and munitions, and to procure explosives detection devices and other counter-terrorism research and development projects, among many other advantages. In short, Saudi Arabia is officially now regarded by the U.S. and its allies – including NATO members – as ‘one of ours’.

That said, this unofficial designation – and the official ‘major non-NATO ally’ counterpart – comes with its own obligations for Saudi Arabia. Beginning from a broad perspective, the Kingdom will be expected to tilt more towards the interests of the U.S. and its allies than those of the China-Russia bloc, regardless of the issue, and regardless of what has gone before. The years of cosying up with China after the devastating financial impact of the 2014-2016 Oil Price War of OPEC members, led by Saudi Arabia, on the U.S. and its allies — analysed in full in my latest book on the new global oil market order – are expected to count for nothing going forward. Nor is the adjunct relationship normalisation deal brokered by China between Saudi Arabia and Iran, as the same highly-placed Washington-based legal source exclusively told OilPrice.com last week. “In any direct conflicts of interest like this, we [the U.S.] expect Saudi to be on our side from now on,” he underlined. A firmer line from Saudi Arabia is expected by the U.S. to be drawn on the issue of the Kingdom’s earlier drift towards the formal economic, political, and security cooperation structures with China and Russia at their centres. This particularly applies to the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) which Saudi Arabia joined as a ‘dialogue partner’ in March 2023.

And Saudi Arabia’s continued support for the ongoing expansion of China’s multi-generational power-grab project, ‘The Belt and Road Initiative’ is also expected by Washington to be toned down.

This equally carries through into Saudi Aramco’s dealings with China, which had been characterised by chief executive officer Amin Nasser in the comment: “Ensuring the continuing security of China’s energy needs remains our highest priority – not just for the next five years but for the next 50 and beyond,” as also fully detailed in my latest book.

Instead of its formerly Sino-centric posture, Saudi Arabia is now expected by Washington to adopt an actively positive stance in the rollout of Trump’s broader vision for the Middle East. Just as in his first presidential term, this involves building out ‘relationship normalisation’ deals between key Arab states and the U.S.’s longstanding core ally in the region – Israel. This ‘Abraham Accords’ initiative had seen some success in that first term in office, with notable signatories being the UAE and Bahrain, before Trump’s tenure was cut short by his loss to Joe Biden in November 2020. However, there had been signs from MBS even then that he might look favourably on the Kingdom signing such a deal, albeit at a point after King Salman’s death. Given Saudi Arabia’s diplomatic and mediatory stance during the recent Israeli attacks on Hamas and Iran – themselves a response to the murder, torture and rape of hundreds of Israeli citizens by Hamas on 7 October 2023 – Washington is quietly confident that an ‘Abraham Accord’ by whatever name will be reached between Saudi Arabia and Israel in the near future. Indeed, Saudi Arabia (alongside Qatar – another ‘major non-NATO ally’, and Oman) reportedly relayed messages between Tehran and mediators from the U.S.-Israeli side, helping to shape ceasefire conditions.

The final part of Saudi Arabia’s obligations from the U.S. side will be full cooperation on the oil price.

Specifically, Washington expects active assistance in the oil markets to keep oil prices within the ‘Trump Oil Price Range’, as fully analysed in my latest book on the new global oil market order.

Suffice it to say here, this sits roughly between a Brent price floor of US$40–45 per barrel (pb, the breakeven price plus a bit of profit for the bulk of U.S. shale oil producers) and a ceiling of US$75–80 pb (which ties into historical data showing that a gasoline price of under US$2 per gallon has been most advantageous for U.S. economic growth) – and the range is critical to Trump from an economic and political perspective.

On the former, historical data highlights that every US$10 pb or so change in the price of crude oil results in around a 25-30 cent change in the price of a gallon of gasoline, and for every 1 cent that the average price per gallon of gasoline rises, more than US$1 billion or so per year in consumer spending is lost. On the latter, since 1896, the sitting U.S. president has won re-election 11 times out of 11 if the economy was not in recession within two years of an upcoming election.

However, sitting U.S. presidents who went into a re-election campaign with the economy in recession won only once out of seven occasions.

The same pattern broadly applies to the re-election chances of candidates of any sitting president’s party in U.S. mid-term elections as well. Trump may find a way to run again for President, but even if he does not, his Republican Party will want to optimise their chances for another of their members to be in the top job.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 11/28/2025 – 16:30

“Got To Be CIA Front”: Internet Sleuths Scour Web For Clues On DC Afghan Shooter

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“Got To Be CIA Front”: Internet Sleuths Scour Web For Clues On DC Afghan Shooter

The ex-CIA-linked Afghan national who killed one National Guard soldier and critically injured another just blocks from the White House has set off alarm bells across the nation and in national security circles.

The attack – likely soon to be designated as terrorism – highlights how nation-killing open borders, reckless Afghan intake policies, and broader migrant inflows from hellish third worlds, combined with the Democratic Party’s suicidal empathy, have worked in unison to flood the country with tens of millions of poorly vetted people.

Former CIA targeting officer Sarah Adams has repeatedly warned about this threat: individuals with prior militant training or hostile intent have flooded the nation through these migrant inbound intake pipelines during the Biden-Harris regime years.

FBI Director Kash Patel has stated that Afghan national Rahmanullah Lakanwal’s brutal attack in DC earlier this week, which horrified the nation, is being investigated as an act of terrorism.

Patel said agents seized “numerous electronic devices,” including smartphones, iPads, and laptops, all of which are now being analyzed.

FBI agents searched multiple properties in a widening terror probe, including a home in Washington state linked to the suspect.

With federal investigations ongoing and largely being classified, X sleuths have uncovered a trove of information that, while not confirmed, likely sheds more light on Lakanwal.

Not confirmed, but a strong possibility: DataRepublican appears to have found Lakanwal’s job resume, which includes a line stating he worked for the “International Rescue Committee.”

DataRepublican then asked, “Given this, is the International Rescue Committee a CIA front?”

“One of the recipients of the IRC Freedom Award is … George Soros, in 1993. Because of course,” DataRepublican noted.

On the private donation front, IRC gets significant funding from Catholic Charities.

DataRepublican said, “IRC’s head, David Miliband, was the Foreign Secretary under Tony Blair. MI6 (the British version of CIA) reports to the Foreign Secretary. This is getting more and more interesting.”

Interesting.

DataRepublican concluded: “I’ve seen enough. IRC has got to be a CIA front. Just too many intelligence precedents. Have a Happy Thanksgiving!”

Mike Benz asked DataRepublican: “Are you sure the Rahmanullah Lakanwal who worked for IRC is the same Rahmanullah Lakanwal who is the alleged shooter? I saw that LinkedIn of the Rahmanullah Lakanwal at IRC but couldn’t confirm it was the same person from photo and cross-matching. Is there confirmed proof? Thx”…

DataRepublican responded: “Admittedly, there’s not a full entity resolution. Just a 99.95% match (naming rarity, background, etc.) but there’s always that 0.05%. Literally the only other Rahmanullah Lakanwal in the world would be his coworker.”

We also searched databases, such as the Afghanistan Central Business Registry, but found no hits on the shooter. A ghost?

Here’s what other X sleuths found in their investigation that has yet to be confirmed.

The broader threat is clear: America’s immigration system has become an exploitable gateway for bad actors with militant backgrounds or hostile intent – a threat warned about by Trump and America First officials for years – yet Democrats called anyone “racists” and “fascists” for denouncing these nation-killing open borders and poorly vetted migrant intake programs. Now chaos and terror have washed ashore.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 11/28/2025 – 16:00

Trump Moves To “Terminate” All Of Biden’s Autopen’d Orders

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Trump Moves To “Terminate” All Of Biden’s Autopen’d Orders

Discussions about the topic of former President Biden’s increasing use of autopen during his demantia-ridden term have grown louder in recent months amid whistleblowers, reports, and legal challenges.

May – Biden Autopen Use Increased As Cognitive Decline Deepened, Analysis Finds

Sep – Top Biden Aide Releases Kraken On Autopen, Hunter’s Role In Pardongate, And Joe’s Malfunctioning Brain

Oct – House Oversight Committee Says Biden Autopen Pardons Are Null And Void

and most recently:

Nov – Timeline: The Autopen Debate

And it appears that all of this has finally triggered President Trump into action, writing on TruthSocial that:

“Any document signed by Sleepy Joe Biden with the Autopen, which was approximately 92% of them, is hereby terminated, and of no further force or effect.”

Trump went on to explain his reasoning:

“The Autopen is not allowed to be used if approval is not specifically given by the President of the United States.

The Radical Left Lunatics circling Biden around the beautiful Resolute Desk in the Oval Office took the Presidency away from him.

I am hereby cancelling all Executive Orders, and anything else that was not directly signed by Crooked Joe Biden, because the people who operated the Autopen did so illegally.

Trump had one more threat:

“Joe Biden was not involved in the Autopen process and, if he says he was, he will be brought up on charges of perjury.

Thank you for your attention to this matter!”

Finally, of course, we have absolutely no idea how any of what President Trump just wrote is legal (or constitutional), or will we just be stuck circling seven levels of appeal court hell in the American ‘so-called’ justice system? …until it’s all moot anyway (and Fauci is long gone).

Tyler Durden
Fri, 11/28/2025 – 15:30

Sanctioned Russia-Bound Oil Tanker At Risk Of Sinking After Mine Strike

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Sanctioned Russia-Bound Oil Tanker At Risk Of Sinking After Mine Strike

Two tankers which were traversing waters north of Turkey’s Black Sea coast are believed to have suffered damaged from sea mines placed in regional waters related to the Ukraine war.

A suezmax and an aframax tanker sanctioned by the West for trading in Russia both caught fire nearly simultaneously on Friday, according to Bloomberg and regional outlets. 

Smoke is seen near the Russia-bound tanker off the coast of Turkey, via DHA/Daily Sabah

At least one of the tankers is on fire after the apparent blasts occurred about 30 nautical miles north of Turkey’s Black Sea coast.

Crewmembers have been cited in maritime reports saying an “external impact” was observed, as related by Turkish authorities. 

Specifically a fire was observed aboard the Kairos tanker in the Black Sea near the Turkish coast. The vessel was reportedly en route to the Black Sea port of Novorssiysk when the incident occurred.

Turkey’s Daily Sabah said the blaze triggered a large-scale recue response, and all crew members are safe:

A fire broke out Thursday aboard a Russian-bound tanker off the coast of Kandıra district in Türkiye’s Kocaeli province, prompting an emergency rescue operation for the vessel’s 25 crew members, authorities said.

The tanker KAIROS, sailing empty toward Russia’s Novorossiysk port, reported a fire about 28 miles off Türkiye’s Black Sea shores, the Directorate General of Maritime Affairs said in a statement. Officials noted the blaze was believed to have been triggered by an “external impact,” though the cause has not yet been confirmed.

“All 25 personnel onboard are in good condition,” the agency said, adding that rescue units were dispatched to evacuate the crew and monitor the situation.

The Kairos , which was sailing under the Gambian flag, is reportedly in danger of sinking – with Turkish coast guard vessels and tugboats currently assisting at the scene.

While all initial reports have pointed to a sea mine explosion, there remains the possibility that a drone could have caused the explosion and damage. A rapid plume of smoke just after the strike could be observed all the way from eyewitnesses on the Turkish coast.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 11/28/2025 – 15:00

Wall Street Warns Of A Deepening Oil Glut In 2026

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Wall Street Warns Of A Deepening Oil Glut In 2026

Authored by Charles Kennedy via OilPrice.com,

  • Reuters’ monthly poll shows analysts expect WTI to average $59 in 2026 and Brent $62.23 amid persistent oversupply.

  • Executives warn U.S. shale will stagnate or decline if WTI stays in the $50–$60 range.

  • Goldman Sachs forecasts even lower prices and says the oil market won’t rebalance until 2027 after a final major supply wave.

Oversupplied markets will keep oil prices under pressure next year, and the U.S. benchmark will average below $60 per barrel, the monthly Reuters poll of analysts and economists showed on Friday.

The U.S. benchmark, WTI Crude, is expected to average $59 per barrel in 2026, according to the poll of 35 analysts and economists. That’s lower compared to the $60.23 per barrel forecast in last month’s survey.

The analysts expect Brent Crude, the international benchmark, to average $62.23 per barrel next year, down from $63.15 forecast in the Reuters poll in October.

Most experts cited rising supply from both OPEC+ and non-OPEC+ as the key bearish factor for oil prices next year. But lingering geopolitical risks could put a floor under prices, the analysts reckon. 

At the current price of WTI oil, shale will stagnate or start to decline, industry executives say, while shale producers look to do more with less by raising efficiency in production and capital allocation.

Ryan Lance, chairman and CEO of ConocoPhillips, said that “At $60-$65 a barrel WTI oil prices, the US is probably plateau-ish.”

“But if prices stay at $60 or go into the $50s, you probably are plateauing or slightly declining,” the executive added.  

Earlier this month, Goldman Sachs said that oil prices are set to further drop into next year from current levels amid a large surplus on the market, with WTI Crude expected to average $53 per barrel in 2026.  

The oil market is set to rebalance in 2027 as 2026 will see “the last big oil supply wave the market has to work through,” Daan Struyven, co-head of global commodities research at Goldman Sachs, told CNBC last week. 

In the long term, supply growth will mostly come from OPEC, which has spare capacity and is investing in capacity expansion, according to Struyven.

Some modest growth could come from the U.S. shale patch, but this would require Brent at around $80 per barrel or so toward the end of the decade, according to Goldman Sachs.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 11/28/2025 – 14:30

Coup-Coup Birds: The DC Blob Is Cornered

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Coup-Coup Birds: The DC Blob Is Cornered

Authored by James Howard Kunstler,

“Literally everything the left did, every line they crossed and rule they broke, all came back to slap them in the face.”

– Insurrection Barbie on “X”

Indeed, you have a lot to be thankful for this week of humble national gratitude — for instance, the explosive new revelations as to just exactly how US elections have been rigged, and how, it now appears, Mr. Trump and his people, are prepared to go mad-dog on the sinister forces behind it.

It all unspooled this Thanksgiving week, which is always a kind of a time-out from the urgent realities of the moment. And yet, while you basted your turkey (not a good practice by the way, but that’s another matter), rumors of a mysterious coup (as in coup d’é·tat) were flying all over alt media and social media.

Something or someone (a bunch of someones) have got a very dark op underway, the rumor goes. . . fault lines are opening in the US government. . . we’re in a danger zone.

This supposedly was behind last week’s “Seditionist Six” prank, the slickly produced video arranged by Senator (former CIA official) Elissa Slotkin (D-MI) and sidekick Sen. Mark (“the Astronaut”) Kelly (D-AZ) advising US military personnel about the option to disobey “illegal orders” from the command structure (that is, from President Trump on down). What illegal orders? They did not specify. . . suggesting, perhaps, orders that had not yet been issued, for an emergency as yet also unspecified.

Accept, for now, the uncomfortable fact that our country has entered a miasma of uncertainty.

That is, you don’t know what’s going on. . . but something surely is going on, and it seems sort of, I dunno, momentous. . . something with the odor and flavor of a. . .“color revolution.”

By the way, everybody’s attention got focused instantly the night before Thanksgiving when one Rahmanullah Lakanwal, an Afghan brought to to the US with the 2021 Afghanistan evacuation under Operation Allies Welcome, ambushed two National Guard troops a few blocks from the White House. Specialist Sarah M. Beckstrom, age 24, died from a head wound and Staff Sgt. Andrew J. Wolfe, age 31, remains hospitalized. There was nothing else on the TV news that night except the shooting.

Rahmanullah Lakanwal, turns out, had worked for nine years as a GPS tracker specialist in Unit 03 of the Kandahar Strike Force (aka “Scorpion Forces”), initially under CIA oversight via its Special Activities Division, with some JSOC training, before transitioning to Afghan intelligence. In other words, he was not just some mook with a donkey. He had lately been taken in by a sympathetic American family in Bellingham, WA — a roughly three-thousand-mile journey to Washington DC — where he did his deed. If he flew on an airplane to get there, just how did he manage to smuggle a handgun through airport security? Or did someone, maybe, give him one on arrival in DC? Was he still, one way or another, in the employ of the CIA? I guess we’ll find out.

Now, with the nation’s attention split this week between the DC ambush story and the culinary difficulties of Thanksgiving, the election fraud story unspooled in alt media.

Surprise, surprise! Turns out to be our auld acquaintance, the Kraken? Remember that monster? Eminent DC attorney Sidney Powell, had conniptions over the Kraken in the months after the 2020 election that ushered senile (let’s just say it) “Joe Biden” into the Oval Office for four disastrous years. (After which, Sidney Powell was methodically defamed and prosecuted by mysterious forces.)

Ms. Powell threatened to “release the Kraken,” meaning: a malign combine out of Venezuela had managed to foist Dominion vote tabulation machines all over the USA, but especially in swing vote states, along with Smartmatic software. And all this janky machinery was connected by the Internet through Serbia to the CCP, or something like that. And that this machinery, plus massive voter fraud operations run by Lawfare ninjas Norm Eisen, Marc Elias, and Mary McCord, with help from Mark Zuckerberg’s $400-million Center for Tech and Civic Life org, prestidigitated millions of extra votes needed to push “Joe Biden” into the winner’s circle.

Those of you who stayed up late the November night in 2020 also probably witnessed some impressive magic tricks in the election returns — for instance, the mom-and-daughter team of Ruby Freeman and Wandrea “Shaye” Moss pulling a switcheroo in the Fulton County (Atlanta) election HQ, captured on closed-circuit TV, while vote-counting was shut down for several hours due to a “broken toilet”…

Fulton County, GA, Election HQ, Nov 3, 2020 — the Night of the Broken Toilet.

…and the wondrous vote flipperooski in Michigan…

Michigan Vote Flipperooski, Election Night, 2020

…and the panel trucks delivering bales of extra ballots in the wee hours of morning to the main Philadelphia election HQ…

…and presto-change-o, you got a senile president.

This voter fraud business is evidently a global operation, involving elections in many other countries over several election cycles, carried out by a broad network of NGOs and government agencies, such as the now dismantled USAID, which acted as a money-laundering service for all these ops. A good place to start your own research is independent reporter Emerald Robinson’s “X” account.

Mr. Trump, for one, has always been adamant that the 2020 election was a fraud, but it has taken all year, apparently, to convince White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles that this is so, and now, we’re told, Mr. Trump is about to go after the perps. The hard evidence is there, rumor has it, the receipts, and that is why the Democratic Party is freaking out…

…including that “Seditionist Six” message about refusing orders from the Commander-in-Chief.

The kernel of all this (maybe paranoid, maybe not) is that the DC blob is cornered and that its only hope to escape prosecution, punishment, loss of power and perqs, and possible extinction, is to pull off a coup to bum-rush Mr. Trump out of office by main force.

Meaning, our country might be at war with itself right now. Are perp walks in the offing?

*  *  * BLACK FRIDAY IS HERE

Tyler Durden
Fri, 11/28/2025 – 13:30

Trump And House GOP Are Headed For A Clash Over Obamacare Subsidies

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Trump And House GOP Are Headed For A Clash Over Obamacare Subsidies

Obamacare subsidies expire at the end of December, and it now looks like the big battle over their future won’t be between Democrats and the GOP, but between the White House and House Republicans.

Trump has said that while he doesn’t want to make the subsidies permanent, that “some kind of an extension may be necessary to get something else done because the unaffordable care act has been a disaster. It’s a disaster.”

The White House proposal caps eligibility at 700% of the federal poverty line and kills off zero-premium plans that have become a magnet for fraud. But House Speaker Mike Johnson has made it clear this idea hits a wall with the GOP. Even with these anti-fraud provisions attached, Trump’s plan still pours billions into the same broken system, and does nothing to address the key problem created by Obamacare: the skyrocketing costs of subsidies.

The obvious problem here going into midterms is optics… with millions of Americans – including a ton of lower income red state residents, forced to suddenly come up with potentially thousands of dollars more per month after already adjusting to the inflationary ‘new normal’ thanks to the egregious overreaction to the economy-killing pandemic shutdown that never should have happened in the first place.

According to the Wall Street Journal, Johnson “cautioned the White House that most House Republicans don’t have an appetite for extending enhanced Affordable Care Act subsidies, according to people familiar with the matter, showing how hard it will be politically to stave off sharp increases in healthcare costs next year for many Americans.”

The message from Johnson, in a phone call with administration officials, came as President Trump’s advisers were drafting a healthcare plan that extended the subsidies for two years.

The warning underscores the hurdles facing any deal in coming weeks. Lawmakers have a mid-December deadline for healthcare votes promised as a condition for Democrats voting to end the government shutdown earlier this month. The enhanced subsidies expire at the end of the year, affecting more than 20 million people who benefit from the tax credits. 

While the White House and GOP leadership circle each other, a bipartisan group of lawmakers has worked out a separate solution. However, their proposal still relies on extending the subsidies.

The Bipartisan Healthcare Optimization Protection Extension (HOPE) Act extends the enhanced premium tax credit for two years. It includes a lower income cap for enrollees, about $200,000 for a family of four, and phases out for those making above that (currently the subsidy is capped based on what percent of a family’s income it spends on health care). The bill would also try to crack down on fraud.

“We don’t want to see premiums skyrocket, but we probably need a deeper plan for the longer term to deal with the high cost of healthcare,” said Rep. Don Bacon (R-Nebr.). “What we’re proposing is a bridge. Let’s help keep people’s premiums down — that’s important — and it’ll give us time to work on it, maybe something better over the next year or two.”

“People are freaking out. I mean, I get phone calls from people about seeing their premiums go up by a thousand dollars a month,” Rep. Tom Suozzi, a New York Democrat, said. “That’s why we felt it was very important for us to get together as a bipartisan team to say, let’s work together and let’s force something to happen here that we can try and build consensus on.”

These solutions don’t solve the problem for millions who never qualified for subsidies, who will see their premiums soar regardless. Extending subsidies deepens the distortion and accelerates the problem. 

The subsidy fight puts Republicans in a tough spot. Johnson has already shown he will not bless another round of Obamacare cash, and most of the conference stands with him. Trump’s team is floating the idea of a temporary extension, and that puts the party on a collision course as January approaches. The CR runs out at the end of January, and nothing suggests the White House and House Republicans will bridge this gap before then.

Meanwhile, Democrats see an easy opening. They are unified, they want this fight, and they know the GOP’s internal split hands them the leverage they lacked during the last shutdown. Washington is drifting toward another stalemate, and the setup looks far worse for Republicans this time around. The stage is set for a January showdown that could break wide open once the subsidies expire.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 11/28/2025 – 11:45

“Oh!…K”

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“Oh!…K”

By Michael Every of Rabobank

As Bloomberg puts it, the latest Fed Beige Book underlined a ‘deepening K-shaped split’. The very wealthy are still spending; everyone else is struggling. That split is now evident all over. AI firms are booming; most aren’t. Moreover, a day after the Financial Times spoke of people looking for “crumbs” in parts of the US, it happily reports ‘Megadeals hit new record as Wall Street’s animal spirits roar back.’ That will please the crumb-seekers.

It’s there in budgets too. Brussels just rebuked Finland for breaching EU budget rules: if even the Scandies are naughty, as they rearm aggressively, then who isn’t? The UK saw what the Telegraph calls ‘A Budget of chaos, contradiction and falsehoods’, as the Guardian noted “Rachel Reeves targets UK’s wealthiest in £26bn tax-raising budget”, and the FT said it ”raises the UK tax take to an all-time high.” Our Stefan Koopman argues it has little aimed at boosting growth, encouraging investment, restoring confidence, or reforming the tax system, and is instead “a Survival Budget instead of a Growth Budget, crafted to appease both backbench MPs and financial markets.” Yet fiddling with CPI may be enough for a divided BOE to cut a little more.

A K-shape is evident in the Fed as well. Miran makes clear he wants to do things very differently. So does Bessent. Cook’s fate is in the balance. Powell’s Miran-esque replacement may be named in weeks. This goes beyond Fed Funds. Potentially, it’s also about US (geo)political economy.

Even the FT just had to admit global trade is also now a ‘K’. Its op-ed , ‘China is making trade impossible’, argues, “There is nothing that China wants to import, nothing it does not believe it can make better and cheaper, nothing for which it wants to rely on foreigners a single day longer than it has to.” It adds what China imports, because it must, it also intends to make soon and dominate global supply of. In short, Ricardian comparative advantage is gone; China makes ‘port’ and ‘cloth’, and China will eventually dominate all key global industries. Those who read Ricardo, Chinese history, Marxism-Leninism, and neomercantilism warned about this years ago, and how it would lead to the collapse of the (neo)liberal world order – as a US commission warns China seeks an “alternative world order.” Yet ‘because markets’ types were all ‘O’-shaped: mouths agape, intellectually in a closed loop. So, here we are.

The FT op-ed concludes the EU must embrace protectionism if it wants to retain any industry as, “Europe has nothing to offer and difficult decisions to make”. It’s already heading in that direction slowly, grudgingly, blaming Trump, and still thinking it will be able to remain a net exporter as it happens, which it likely won’t. It goes without saying that Europe is K-shaped on that key front, within lobby groups in each member state, and between them – and Brussels.

In other geoeconomics, Nikkei Asia reports ‘Japan Inc.’ is trying to reduce reliance on China; the US is negotiating a trade deal with Taiwan that could help train US workers; pro-‘free-trade’ Canada announced further limits on steel imports and promised more money for its lumber mills; the Israeli army is moving away from Chinese cars to avoid tech spying; and Trump won’t invite South Africa to the Miami G-20 – maybe that global institution is at a fork in the road too.

The ECB also has a plan ‘to boost Europe’s global influence’ – making the Euro available for those worried about access to dollars. Yet the Euro’s global role is small, commodities are priced in dollars, Russia’s pushing for barter, China for CNY-invoicing, and US stablecoins about to be unleashed: so, some worry about the ECB’s access to dollars more than others’ access to Euros.

In the political realm things are always K-shaped – but now it’s a huge capital letter. The Georgia election interference case against Trump was just dropped, as was the court case against its instigator, Letitia James, on a legal technicality; but Axios notes, ‘Supreme Court poised to reshape next 3 election cycles.’ That may matter more than what it says on tariffs ahead.

It’s not just courts: every US institution is K-shaped, even the army. The White House is floating sedition charges against six Democratic politicians, including Senator Kelly, for calling for the armed forces not to obey illegal orders –without stating which ones are– as social media shows billboards encouraging troops to do so. It’s also floated on MSNBC that anyone helping that legal process would face Nuremberg-style charges if Republicans lose the 2028 election. That’s the backdrop to two US national guard soldiers being shot near the White House, following two assassination attempts against President Trump and the murder of Charlie Kirk.

Naturally, international relations are not OK, just ‘K’. China is demanding clarity from Japan on its one-China principle as the Wall Street Journal’s Ling Ling Wei reports following the Trump-Xi call, the White House told Japan to “lower the volume” on Taiwan, which Tokyo “found worrying.” Yet media are always K-shaped, so in no (Ling Ling) way does that mean this is gospel, just a view. Meanwhile, Taiwan pledged to boost defence spending by $40bn to “defend democracy” – and whom will it buying those arms from?

Regarding Russia-Ukraine, on one hand Moscow is pursuing a deal on its terms and called the leak of a Witkoff call with its team “hybrid warfare”: true, but it takes one to know one. Moreover, the US is reportedly demanding Kyiv signs a peace deal before it underlines the details of its security guarantees for it – talk about caveat emptor! On the other hand, Europe is trying to find a plan B for Kyiv if they can’t agree on using Moscow’s frozen state assets – which could blow up any peace deal; France and the UK are LARPing the 1950s, forgetting in 1956 the US was already showing them who did and didn’t have ‘strategic autonomy’ in the Suez Crisis; and the EU’s top diplomat, Kallas, is saying a peace deal should insist the Russian military’s size is capped – worryingly, there seems a K-shaped divergence between that idea and a nuclear-armed reality.

In the Middle East, ‘Scions of Iran’s revolution call for reset with the world’, claims the FT, as a “New generation of political elites seek overhaul of ties with west and Arab states.” Then again, there also intel reports that Iran is considering a major strike against Israel, which runs the other way.

And in Africa, Nigeria’s President has declared a security emergency and ordered the mass recruitment of police and army, having been warned by Trump about the need to protect the country’s Christian communities. So, over to a US military focus on Venezuela then? Newsweek has it that ‘Defiant Maduro rallies Venezuela for US war.’

The important point here is that the average of any K-shape looks like Ͱ rather than a letter of the alphabet: it has no meaning. In the same way, there is no useful mean to the conflating developments above, just uncomfortable up- or -down-legs. Nor is there a comfortable median to assume some kind of return to.

“Oh!…K” indeed.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 11/28/2025 – 11:20

Fentanyl Trafficking Rings Run By Illegal Immigrants Dismantled Across Washington

survivalnomics
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Fentanyl Trafficking Rings Run By Illegal Immigrants Dismantled Across Washington

In his Nov. 24 op-ed, Seattle conservative commentator Jason Rantz puts a sharp spotlight on what he frames as the overlooked reality of Washington’s fentanyl pipeline: that major trafficking networks are increasingly being run or staffed by illegal immigrants.

Rantz reports that federal agents dismantled two international drug rings in October—one tied to Ecuador, the other to Mexico—resulting in more than 18 arrests and the seizure of millions of lethal fentanyl doses, narcotics, illegal firearms, and even an improvised explosive device.

Rantz writes that the central revelation is that “many of the suspects… are in this country illegally,” a detail he says federal officials had not previously made public. U.S. Attorney Neil Floyd confirmed to The Jason Rantz Show that not all suspects are U.S. citizens and that investigators routinely discover unlawful status during arrests.

Floyd argued that the public deserves clarity about who is behind these crimes, even as investigations themselves are not driven by immigration status. As he told Rantz, “It’s fair for the public to know… the Trump administration is not wrong about the fact that many of the people that are here illegally are committing crimes, and very serious crimes.”

The Ecuador-linked Gutama Escandon network pushing fentanyl and meth across the Puget Sound region, and the Mexico-connected ring in rural Lewis County tied to 105,000 fentanyl pills and 34 kilograms of powder—amounts the DEA equates to more than 3 million potentially deadly doses, according to 770AM.

For Rantz, the takeaway is blunt. These cases show that Washington’s fentanyl crisis cannot be separated from immigration realities, despite political narratives that portray illegal immigrants as uniformly harmless.

By surfacing details federal authorities acknowledge but often do not publicize, Rantz argues the public can better understand the forces driving the drug epidemic devastating communities across the state.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 11/28/2025 – 11:00

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