Jamaica’s Catastrophe Bond Poised For Big Payout Within Weeks After Hurricane Melissa’s Insane Strength
Hurricane Melissa was the most powerful storm to make landfall in Jamaica in over 170 years, ripping through the Caribbean island’s western region with 185 mph winds and leaving widespread destruction to infrastructure, towns, resorts, and farmland. The storm’s central pressure is likely to have fallen below the threshold that would trigger a $150 million catastrophe bond designed to offset weather-related losses through the capital markets.
According to CNBC, the government of Jamaica’s $150 million cat bond was structured by insurance broker Aon using the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development’s “capital at risk” program and could be triggered as soon as next month.
For the island nation’s government to receive funds, the storm’s central pressure must be less than 900 millibars upon landfall. Early indications from the National Hurricane Center show the Category 5 hurricane with 185 mph winds met that threshold in several regions in the western part of the island.
The cat bond, structured by Aon and effective through 2027, provides parametric coverage, meaning payouts are based on storm intensity metrics rather than assessed damages.
Triggering paypout requires the storm’s central pressure must be
If triggered, funds could reach Jamaica within about one month, far faster than traditional insurance settlements, which often take several months.
Jamaica is the first Caribbean and small-island nation to sponsor a cat bond, according to Aon.
“While the final numbers are still being verified, the early signs suggest the transaction is doing what it was designed to do: getting critical funds to the country quickly after a major disaster,” Chris Lefferdink, Aon’s head of insurance-linked securities for North America, told CNBC in a statement.
The question of whether the $150 million cat bond will cover all the damage remains in question. New satellite data from Bloomberg shows extensive damage.
Montego Bay, Black River, and surrounding parishes (Saint James, Westmoreland, Saint Elizabeth) suffered the heaviest damage, with around 40% of buildings and roads destroyed.
Power outages persist for about 72% of customers, while many communities remain isolated due to blocked roads and debris.
At least 19 people were killed, and economic losses are estimated at $8 billion, about one-third of Jamaica’s GDP, according to Enki Research.
Jamaica’s use of a cat bond and its likely trigger event in the coming weeks could spark significant interest among other Caribbean nations for next year’s Atlantic hurricane season.
Chicago PMI Beats But Remains In ‘Contraction’ For Second Straught Year
There’s good news and bad news in today’s macro data (what scarce data there is).
MNI’s Chicago Business Barometer (PMI) printed a better than expected 43.8 (42.3 exp), up from the prior 40.6…
Source: Bloomberg
There’s a little more good news as seven of the underlying components rose vs last month:
Prices paid rose at a faster pace; signaling expansion
New orders fell at a slower pace; signaling contraction
Employment fell at a slower pace; signaling contraction
Inventories fell at a slower pace; signaling contraction
Supplier deliveries rose at a faster pace; signaling expansion
Production fell at a slower pace; signaling contraction
Order backlogs fell at a slower pace; signaling contraction
The bad news is, as the chart above shows (normalized for the 50 cut off between expansion and contraction), this was the 23rd straight month below 50 (contraction) and the 37th month of contraction in the last 38 months.
New York Gov. Kathy Hochul on Thursday declared a state of emergency due to the federal Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) program being suspended on Nov. 1 due to the government shutdown and a lack of funding.
The decision means that $65 million in state funds will be allocated for emergency food assistance to provide for 40 million meals statewide, her office said in a statement. Around 3 million people in the state receive SNAP benefits, known as food stamps.
In a statement, the Democratic governor said that the loss of SNAP funds is “an unprecedented public health crisis” and will harm farmers, grocers, and other stores across the state.
“Today, I’m declaring a state of emergency and am committing additional state funds for emergency food assistance to ensure New Yorkers don’t go hungry,” Hochul added in her statement.
The $65 million in state funding will include $40 million “in new funding for the Hunger Prevention and Nutrition Assistance Program, which provides emergency food relief and nutrition services to food-insecure populations,” said her office.
The emergency order also directs the Empire State Service Corps and the State University of New York Corps, which are both state-funded public service work program for college students, to assist in SNAP registrations and other efforts.
“The Empire State Service Corps will allow current members to expand their paid hours, enabling them to provide greater support at food pantries statewide,” the statement from her office said. “In addition, new short-term crisis response positions will be created to assist food pantries and food banks facing staffing shortages.
SNAP’s looming lapse in funding comes as the shutdown has lasted nearly a month, coming after members of Congress did not come to an agreement on how to fund the government.
Democrats have said that any measure to reopen the government should include what they say are protections for health care, including an extension of health care subsidies that are set to expire at the end of the year. Republicans say that talks on health care should come after the government is reopened.
Meanwhile, both Democrats and Republicans, as well as the Trump administration, have traded blame over the lapse in SNAP funding.
Earlier this week, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) warned that food stamps are set to run dry and accused Democrats of obstructing the reopening of the government. Hochul and other Democrats have blamed the Trump administration and Republicans over the shutdown and SNAP funding lapse.
Other states have issued emergency orders over SNAP deadline. Connecticut Gov. Ned Lamont, a Democrat, said on Oct. 27 that his administration will provide $3 million in emergency funding to a nonprofit to residents who are expected to lose access to SNAP.
The governor of Delaware, Matt Meyer, also declared an emergency earlier this week that he said will allow the state to redirect funds to food assistance during the shutdown. Rhode Island Gov. Dan McKee made a similar declaration on Oct. 28, and Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin declared one on Oct. 23.
At the same time, 25 states have filed a lawsuit against the federal government to keep SNAP’s funding going past the Nov. 1 deadline. U.S. District Judge Indira Talwani told lawyers on Thursday in a hearing that the government can’t afford to cover the program, and that there’s a process to follow rather than simply suspending all benefits.
“The steps involve finding an equitable way of reducing benefits,” said Talwani in the hearing.
The Trump administration has argued it wasn’t allowed to use a contingency fund with about $5 billion in it for the program, while a USDA plan from before the shutdown said that money would be tapped to keep SNAP running. Democratic states have argued that not only could that contingency money be used, it must be. They also said a separate fund with around $23 billion could be tapped.
Run On Food Banks Underway As SNAP Benefits Face Going Dark By Weekend
By the end of the week, Democrats will be responsible for millions of Americans losing their food stamps due to their refusal to pass a clean continuing resolution to fund the federal government amid day number 29 of the shutdown. Already, working-class households are turning to food banks nationwide, and some of these free food distribution centers are warning of collapse, as they lack the proper supplies to fill the gap if food stamp cards go dark.
“Democrats have spent a month playing with people’s livelihoods because the far-left wing of their party won’t let them accept a clean, nonpartisan CR. If they want to prevent damage from their shutdown, then they can end their shutdown. The bill is right there at the desk,” Senate Majority Leader John Thune wrote on X.
Democrats have spent a month playing with people’s livelihoods because the far-left wing of their party won’t let them accept a clean, nonpartisan CR.
If they want to prevent damage from their shutdown, then they can end their shutdown. The bill is right there at the desk. pic.twitter.com/qtaLPzWL6b
At the start of the week, the American Federation of Government Employees, the country’s largest union representing federal workers, urged Democrats to abandon their current position and join Republicans in supporting a stopgap solution before more damage is done to working poor households and the economy.
Front page of the New York Post.
Working poor households have wasted no time in the government shutdown and shifted to food banks nationwide. Some food banks warn that supplies are getting low amid the influx in demand, and some even warn of a collapse if SNAP goes offline this Saturday.
Google Searches for “food bank near me” are exploding to a five-year high.
A New Mexico-based food bank director warned MSNBC: “For every meal that a food bank provides, the SNAP program provides nine. There’s no way we can meet that gap.”
Food bank director: “for every meal that a food bank provides, the SNAP program provides nine. There’s no way we can meet that gap.” pic.twitter.com/5lYTLtBq8q
As a result of the government shutdown, SNAP benefits will not be going out on Nov. 1st. This is a disaster for tens of thousands of local families, and it will be crippling for local food banks. Recently, I stopped by Second Harvest, our region’s largest food bank network, to… pic.twitter.com/V4wKjzpbRU
— U.S. Congressman Ryan Mackenzie (@RepMackenzie) October 29, 2025
Atlanta area food bank says they can not act as long-term replacement for SNAP shortage https://t.co/l8PTLeAx79
🚨 Massive lines of federal workers and contractors are forming at a Virginia food bank during the shutdown. Supplies ran out within the first hour, leaving many without help. pic.twitter.com/0D5HZ8gGZl
The GreenHouse Food Bank in Deer Park is expecting 13 pallets of food donations tomorrow morning from the LDS church. The director says these donations are greatly appreciated. It’s unclear how long supplies will last the community with SNAP benefits in jeopardy. @kxly4newspic.twitter.com/mgSQUVe1qv
The odds of a government shutdown being resolved next week stand at 26%, while the odds of a resolution after mid-November are 41%, according to Polymarket data.
Fixed Income investors may find themselves shutting the curtains and hiding under the sofa this Halloween. There is much to be fearful of – deterioration of developed market fundamentals, falling labour market confidence and slowdown indicated in shipping. And that’s just the beginning!
This pumpkin spiced latte season, we take a look at seven charts which look beyond the rally we have seen in risk assets. Perhaps its not all as rosy as it appears on the surface. Maybe it is best to check under the bed for market risks…
Happy Halloween!
The EM-ification of DM? Investors find DM fiscal sustainability scary
Source: Bloomberg and JP Morgan. As at 30 September 2025. Indices used: JP Morgan GBI-EM Global Diversified Composite – Gross Return (USD Unhedged), ICE BofA Developed Markets Sovereign Bond (USD Unhedged)
As developed market economies continue to carry historically very high levels of debt, and with government bond issuance at all time highs, there is increasing convergence in volatility between EM and DM. The fundamentals in EM look solid, but there has been a deterioration across DM. This werewolf type behaviour hasn’t gone unnoticed, and markets are starting to price this in.
The full moon has DM fundamentals howling
Darkness approaching? Labour market confidence signalling recession?
Source: Conference Board, Bloomberg (CONCLBDF Index), 31 August 2025
Strain in the labour market is a classic sign of a recession. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Labor Differential is suggesting some significant deterioration in the availability of work. Spotting recession is easy in hindsight, but perhaps it has already made its way into the house hiding behind the door? The shape looks familiar to that of recessions gone by… could history be repeating itself?
Nightmare on Wall Street
Interest expense taking the opportunity of better services away?
Source: Bloomberg, Congressional Budget Office (31 December 2024)
US government debt levels have been soaring in the last 10 years. We find ourselves in a situation where interest payments servicing US debt are well in excess of their defence budget ($800 billion)! With so much money being spent on interest, what are the consequences for citizens in terms of services, and what effect does this have on growth? Is this a downward spiral that is tricky to escape?
‘Do you like scary net interest expenses?’ Enough to make you SCREAM.
A terrible fright in US freight – leading indicator for slowdown?
Source: Bloomberg (30 September 2025)
The Cass Freight Index is a measurement of monthly freight activity. A combination of restrictive monetary policy and a weakening consumer has led to a deterioration in the data, and the impact of tariffs are yet to be fully felt. We are approaching levels that we last saw during the Global Financial Crisis – serious slowdown in the economy. Perhaps this is indicating something more malicious lurking under the surface in the global economy? Are we yet to feel the full effects?
‘We’re gonna need a bigger boat!’ and more of them! Or the slowdown is upon us.
A trick for equities, a treat for fixed income?
Source: Robert J Shiller, Irrational Exuberance (updated, October 2025)
During the 2010s there was no alternative but to invest in equities. However, this is no longer the case. Bonds are back! Back to 1881, the excess CAPE Shiller earnings yield has been a strong indicator of subsequent 10 year returns in equity markets. The 2010s produced supernormal returns, but valuations are becoming increasingly stretched. At current levels, the S&P 500 would return 1.6% annualised over the next 10 years. With risk-free 10 year US Treasuries offering a return of 4%, bonds are considerably more attractive. All this before picking up the extra return on offer in credit markets, and outperformance from here with an active manager!
‘Who ya gonna call?’
‘Fixed Income!’
The ghost of the GFC in London housing starts and sales?
Source: Molior (30 September 2025)
The housing market can be a good temperature check for any economy. If the housing market is hot, this has multiplier effects to other sectors as home buyers purchase new furniture, carpets, appliances etc. London housing starts and sales are now down at GFC lows – a potential indicator of an economic slowdown when reflected on a national scale. There are moves afoot to boost the housing market and encourage further housebuilding through much needed planning reform in efforts to avert a slowdown. If there is a recession coming, will it be as deep as the GFC? We think not, although it may be ‘L shaped’.
Déjà Boo: housing starts and sales in London have a scary resemblance to 2008
A Sixth Sense in the US auto loan market?
Source: M&G, Bloomberg, St Louis Fed (30 June 2025, latest available data)
There has been a strong uptick in serious auto loan delinquencies (defined as repayments 90 days+ past due) as the impact of the higher rates environment has been felt by consumers. We are now at levels approaching that of the GFC. Perhaps this shows us the weakness that is being felt by the consumer. Over the course of this chart, the total debt outstanding in auto loans has risen from $800 billion in 2008 to $1.65 trillion in 2025 (acknowledging inflation and the rise in car prices in this period, albeit many more cars are now on financing deals).
‘I see dead auto loans’ – are we seeing the weakness of consumer like in 2008?
Poland, Slovakia, Hungary Defy EU By Keeping Bans On Ukraine Imports
A new European Union deal to liberalize trade with Ukraine took effect Wednesday, but Poland, Hungary and Slovakia are defying it, maintaining their protectionist bans on imports from the country. Their defiance comes amid mounting grievances over EU prioritization of the West’s proxy war on Russia over the prosperity of EU member states and their citizens.
Approved on Oct 13, the new EU arrangement expands tariff-free Ukrainian access to European markets, replacing a temporary lowering of trade barriers adopted after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. “We believe (the agreement) is a stable, fair framework, that can be reliable both for the EU and for Ukraine, to ensure a gradual integration in our single market, while providing stable trade flows,” said European Commission spokeswoman Ariana Podesta. The European Commission (EC) is the EU’s principal executive branch.
Rebelling against the Brussels regime, Poland, Hungary and Slovakia say they will maintain the bans on agricultural imports from Ukraine they put in place in 2023. The three countries’ bans were a reaction to a wartime glut of Ukrainian products, which resulted from Black Sea ports being disrupted by the war with Russia. The glut sank prices and hammered domestic producers.
By imposing their own individual trade barriers, Poland, Hungary and Slovakia are violating EU’s single-market regulations. On Thursday, the EC said it isn’t ruling out the possibility of taking legal action. “We see no justification for maintaining these national measures,” EC spokesman Olof Gill told Politico. While asserting that “all options are on the table,” Gill said the EC would “intensify its contact” with the uncooperative trio of Eastern European states. Thus far, the EC has been a paper tiger, tolerating the ban for two years while hoping the new arrangement would render them moot.
The new EU trade rules limit some imports from Ukraine, including grains and oil. They also have a “safeguard clause” allowing protective measures to be employed if a glut of imports hurts domestic producers. However, Slovakian Agriculture Minister Richar Takáč told Politico the restrictions are “not strong enough” to protect his country’s farmers. Via social media, Hungary’s Agriculture Minister István Nagy wrote, “Although Brussels wants to give farmers’ money to Ukraine, we are protecting the resources, the livelihoods of Hungarian producers and our market.”
Goods aren’t the only inflows from Ukraine that are testing the patience of European countries. Refugees from Ukraine are straining governments, soaking up welfare payments and competing with natives for employment. Things were already bad enough, but now Ukraine’s liberalized restrictions on male travel from the country are yielding a huge surge in military-age men pouring into Europe, with Poland and Germany bearing the brunt of it.
Conservatives in both countries are pointing to the disconnect between supporting Ukraine’s futile resistance to Russia at the same time young Ukrainian men are refusing to take part. As Poland’s Confederation party said this week, “Poland cannot continue to be a refuge for thousands of men who should be defending their own country, while burdening Polish taxpayers with the costs of their desertion.”
A simple saliva test could one day predict your risk of pancreatic cancer. Scientists have discovered that having a certain community of bacteria in your mouth can triple the likelihood of developing one of the deadliest forms of cancer—and the culprits include the same microbes that cause gum disease.
The recent study, published in JAMA Oncology, analyzed saliva samples from 122,000 participants in two large epidemiological studies and followed them for approximately nine years. During that time, 445 people developed pancreatic cancer.
In a microbiome-wide scan, researchers found 21 bacterial species linked to pancreatic cancer—eight tied to lower risk and 13 to higher risk.
In a separate test, researchers created a tool that predicted a person’s risks for pancreatic cancer. The tool took into account 27 microbes in total and would give participants a risk score depending on the microbes in their mouth. Each one-unit rise in the score tripled the risk of developing pancreatic cancer.
While some microbes in the risk score are individually linked to lower risk, the score reflects their combined effect. It’s a weighted measure that accounts for both protective and harmful species.
Three were well-known periodontal pathogens with established roles in gum disease.
The fungi implicated were Candida tropicalis, Candida spp (unresolved species), Candida albicans, and Malassezia globosa. The entire genus Candida, a common yeast, was also tied to greater risk, particularly among participants with a history of smoking.
How Mouth Bacteria Reach the Pancreas
Harmful bacteria don’t just stay in the mouth, they can travel throughout the body and trigger disease.
The mouth has local, systemic, and direct influence on disease in your body, Thaddeus Connelly, an oral and maxillofacial surgeon, physician, and CEO of Gengyve, told The Epoch Times.
“Oral microbes exist in a balanced ecosystem when we’re healthy,” said Dileep Sharma, a professor and head of discipline, oral health at the University of Newcastle. When that balance is disrupted, harmful bacteria can directly damage the gums and bone and cause chronic inflammation, first in the mouth, and later in distant organs.
“If you are chronically, or over a long period of time, constantly releasing the inflammatory molecules into your bloodstream, the tissues and organs that receive that constant alarm signal develop disease,” Connelly said. This chronic inflammation, he added, is a key driver of conditions such as heart disease, diabetes, fatty liver disease, stroke, and cancer.
Bacteria can also travel from the saliva through the gut to organs and cause inflammation and damage there, like the pancreas, possibly leading to cancer.
Poor oral hygiene and gum disease can create a steady “drip” of bacteria into the blood. Inflamed gums allow microbes to slip into tiny blood vessels during everyday actions like chewing, brushing, or flossing.
The Same Bacteria, Multiple Diseases
The same microbes associated with increased risk of pancreatic cancer are also linked to other conditions.
According to Sharma, microbial byproducts can contribute to oral and gastrointestinal cancers, while chronic inflammation from an imbalanced microbiome may drive mutations that lead to tumors.
“It starts in the mouth and gut, with poor diet and periodontal disease to blame,” Connelly said.
What You Can Do
While the study identifies risk factors rather than proving cause and effect, maintaining good oral hygiene remains crucial for overall health.
“It is clearer than ever that brushing and flossing your teeth may not only help prevent periodontal disease but may also protect against cancer,” study co-senior author Dr. Richard Hayes, a professor in the Department of Population Health at NYU Grossman School of Medicine, said in a press release.
Most oral hygiene comes down to keeping your mouth clean and maintaining the right balance of bacteria. The basics, brushing and flossing, work by mechanically disrupting and preventing plaque from forming.
Plaque begins soft, but as it absorbs minerals, it hardens and attracts more dangerous bacterial species. Mature plaque becomes a breeding ground for harmful bacteria like F. nucleatum and P. gingivalis, Connelly said.
“Oral hygiene is critical in maintaining a clean mouth and the right bacteria in your mouth,” Connelly said. Brushing, flossing, and rinsing help stop plaque from forming and hardening into what he calls a “bad bacteria factory,” creating an environment where healthy bacteria can thrive.
However, not all oral hygiene products kill bacteria.
Toothpaste does not kill bacteria, and mouthwashes kill both good and bad bacteria, Connelly said.
“Beyond brushing and flossing, use a product that is scientifically formulated as a physical barrier against the establishment and maturation of plaque, ” Connelly said. He suggests mouthwashes that have hyaluronic acid and other mucoadhesive components such as pullulan and polyvinylpyrrolidone.
These products mix and form a protective net on the surface of the teeth and soft tissues inside the mouth, where the battle between different microbes is waged.
Research also shows that tongue cleaning supports a healthier balance of microbes.
Sharma said that lifestyle has a big impact on the oral microbiome.
Eating more fiber-rich foods and quitting smoking can improve its balance. Smoking encourages harmful bacteria tied to gum disease, while diets high in polyphenols, omega-3s, and fiber support healthy bacteria and reduce inflammation.
Other practical strategies to promote a healthy oral microbiome include:
Eating seafood, plant protein, and overall protein
Eating fermented foods, such as yogurt, cheese, and fermented milk
As researchers continue to find out more about the connections between oral bacteria and systemic disease, one message is clear: Taking care of your mouth may protect far more than your teeth and gums.
‘Military Psychosis’: Kremlin Responds To Belgian Minister’s “Wipe Moscow Off The Map” Rhetoric
Earlier this week Belgian Defense Minister Theo Francken issued some stark – and some might say, irresponsible – words directed at Moscow, warning that any missile strike on Brussels would trigger an overwhelming NATO response.
“If Putin launches a missile at Brussels, we will wipe Moscow off the map,” Francken told the De Morgen daily on Monday. It’s unclear what precisely prompted such an aggressive warning, coming after Russia’s own ‘red line’ type rhetoric seeking to dissuade Washington from arming Kiev with long-range Tomahawk missiles.
Franckena further said that any conventional attack on Brussels would also result in Moscow getting “flattened.”
Again, the words were ultra-provocative given it is only one country currently seeing its territory regularly attacked with the help of NATO, and that’s Russia.
When asked in the interview about European doubts concerning Trump’s commitment to NATO, Franckena responded, “The bias against the American government is so great in Europe. Unbelievable…He literally said that America will continue to support its NATO allies one hundred percent. A cruise missile on Brussels? That’s a no-brainer, whatever definition you use. Putin won’t do that either.”
“I consider a major Russian attack on the Baltic states less likely. Those are NATO member states, after all. Soon we’ll have six hundred F-35s in Europe: the Russians are afraid of them because they can’t see them,” he added.
In response, the Russian Embassy in Belgium promptly condemned Francken’s “provocative and irresponsible” statements as “sheer absurdity and total disconnect from reality.”
As quoted in state media, the embassy said further:
“Francken’s escapades are the most glaring manifestation of the militarist frenzy that is increasingly consuming the European war party,” the embassy said.
It added that EU officials like Francken are “posing a threat to the continent’s future and [are] capable of plunging it into a new war.”
And separately, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Aleksandr Grushko said Wednesday that Francken’s words were in line with “the atmosphere of military psychosis” which now dominates discourse in Western Europe.
Moscow has been repeatedly warning that long-range Western-supplied missiles on Russian territory will change the nature of the conflict, and that runaway escalation with NATO could be the result.
Orban Hints At Ukrainian Sabotage Behind Hungary Refinery Fire
A lot of questions and suspicions were immediately raised when on October 21 explosions and fires occurred at large oil refineries in Hungary and Romania. Eyebrows were raised given that both sites have links to Russia.
The Petrotel-Lukoil refinery in Ploiesti (owned by Russian company Lukoil) in southern Romania was damaged, while in Hungary a ‘mystery’ fire also occurred at the country’s largest oil refinery (the MOL-operated Danube Refinery), located in the city of Szazhalombatta – some 17 miles from Budapest – which receives crude oil from Russia.
Despite long efforts of the European Union to phase out Russian energy, a tiny number of states still receive supplies. This is why many have suspected sabotage, possibly linked to Ukrainian intelligence, was behind the twin refinery fires, which had occurred within less than 24 hours apart.
But now, over a week later, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has revealed in a social media statement that authorities haven’t ruled out the possibility of an external attack in investigating the fire at Százhalombatta.
“The investigation is in full swing. We still do not know whether it was an accident, malfunction or outside attack,” Orbán said.
Further, he stated: “The Polish foreign minister advised the Ukrainians to blow up the Druzhba oil pipeline,” before adding, “Let’s hope it’s not that kind of case.”
And according to Politico, “Orbán added Thursday he had instructed his government to inform MOL that it shouldn’t raise energy prices for consumers in response to the fire at the refinery.”
Hungary relies heavily on oil transported through the Druzhba pipeline from Russia through Ukraine and Slovakia. MOL Group, which operates refineries in Hungary and Slovakia, processes 14.2 million tons of Russian crude oil a year.
Orban said he has spoken with MOL Group about the new US sanctions targeting Russian oil this month, which come into effect in November. “We are working on how to circumvent this sanction,” he recently said in an interview with state radio Kossuth.
In 24 hours, serious incidents occurred at two oil refineries: on Monday night a fire broke out at the MOL plant in Százhalombatta (Hungary), and several hours earlier an explosion shook the Petrotel–Lukoil refinery in Romania.
The Treasury has argued that its actions would increase pressure on Russia’s energy sector and degrade the Kremlin’s ability to fight its war against Ukraine. President Trump held off for a long time, but Kiev and the Europeans welcomed the firm anti-Moscow actions.
The sanctions drove up oil prices in the aftermath and raised questions regarding how certain eastern and central European countries will continue to meet their energy needs.
The German government has disclosed that a total of 135,668 crimes have been committed by Syrian suspects between 2015 and 2024, amounting to one every 39 minutes over the past 10 years.
The figures, released by the Federal Ministry of the Interior in response to a parliamentary inquiry from the AfD, have reignited the party’s demands for tougher migration controls and deportations.
The data, obtained by Freilich magazine, also shows large numbers of victims of crimes committed by suspects from other countries of origin, including 82,960 linked to Afghanistan, 69,946 to Iraq, 39,918 to Morocco, and 32,383 to Algeria. Altogether, more than 460,000 crimes were recorded in the 10-year period involving suspects from the 10 main countries of origin: Syria, Afghanistan, Iraq, Iran, Morocco, Algeria, Nigeria, Pakistan, Somalia, and Eritrea.
In respect to Afghan suspects, that’s one crime every 63 minutes; for Iraqis, one every 75 minutes; for Moroccans, one every 132 minutes; and for Algerians, one every 162 minutes.
According to police crime statistics cited by the German publication, the number of Syrian suspects has continued to rise. In 2024, there were 101,265 criminal cases involving Syrians, excluding immigration offenses — up from 94,158 the previous year. The federal interior ministry reported particularly sharp increases in violent and sexual offenses. In 2024, there were 12,512 violent crimes involving Syrian suspects, the highest in 10 years. Cases of rape, sexual coercion, and serious sexual assault rose to 648, more than 60 percent higher than in 2020.
Mehr als jede zweite Frau in Deutschland fühlt sich im öffentlichen Raum nicht mehr sicher. Diese alarmierende Zahl aus der repräsentativen Civey-Umfrage ist ein weiterer Beweis für das Regierungsversagen bei der Migrations- und Sicherheitspolitik: Wie das Bundesinnenministerium… pic.twitter.com/ccerdx7nXY
AfD co-leader Alice Weidel said in a press release that the figures show “the government’s failure in migration and security policy.” She stated, “More than half of all women in Germany no longer feel safe in public spaces. This alarming figure is further proof of the government’s failure. Between 2015 and 2024, 135,668 Germans were victims of crimes committed by suspected Syrian perpetrators. This development is not only extremely alarming but also the result of government mismanagement and uncorrected political misjudgments.”
Weidel also criticized Chancellor Friedrich Merz directly, claiming that the governing coalition refuses to “honestly identify the causes of the problems” and instead engages in “ideological debates about racism.” She said the victims are “young women and children, who are often defenselessly exposed to violent attacks,” calling the situation “a declaration of bankruptcy by this federal government in terms of security policy.”
AfD Bundestag member Christopher Drößler, who initiated the parliamentary inquiry, said the figures demonstrate the need for a large-scale deportation campaign. “Numbers don’t lie. The statistics confirm once again: Germans are primarily victims of criminal foreigners from [Middle] Eastern countries,” Drößler toldFreilich. “We need a massive deportation offensive that focuses primarily on migrants from the main countries of origin, especially Syria, Afghanistan, Morocco, and Iraq.” He said deportations to all these countries “must finally be possible.”
The AfD argues that uncontrolled migration is worsening social tensions in Germany, including competition for housing, benefits, and public safety, and says it is the only party offering “clear solutions” such as border security, deportation of criminal foreigners, and increased police strength.
This month alone, Remix News has reported on several cases involving Syrian suspects across Germany, including the trial this week of a man accused of attempting to murder his former partner and their infant son by setting fire to her apartment while they were inside.
Last week, five Syrian men aged between 17 and 26 were arrested in connection with the alleged gang rape of a 17-year-old girl in Heinsberg, near Aachen. The teenage victim was reportedly persuaded by her ex-boyfriend to meet him, but when he picked her up, three other men entered the car. He then drove them to an apartment in Heinsberg, where two additional men were waiting to rape her under threat of a Taser.
Earlier this month, a 14-year-old Syrian boy accused of committing around 200 crimes was arrested in northern Germany after years of violent offenses that terrorized towns in Schleswig-Holstein. Mohamad H. was charged with three counts of grievous bodily harm, but is accused of committing dozens of offenses, including knife possession, attacking police officers, and multiple thefts.
