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Taiwan Boosts Defense Budget To $40BN As President Lai Lashes Out At Beijing

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Taiwan Boosts Defense Budget To $40BN As President Lai Lashes Out At Beijing

Taiwan on Wednesday announced a highly significant increase to a $40 billion defense budget, which it says is necessary in response to growing Chinese military pressure and harassment.

Significantly it comes as nearby US-ally Japan is locked in a diplomatic battle with Beijing over Tokyo’s increasingly vocal pro-Taiwan independence stance. China has condemned the growing ‘militarism’ of Japan regarding Taiwan’s status.

Anadolu/Getty Images

The historic increase in the 2026–2033 defense spending plan, projected to cover the next eight years, was framed by President Lai Ching-te said as necessary to defending the island’s security as a “non-negotiable”.

Lai directly addressed Beijing, emphasizing that the issue is not ideological but rooted in rejecting the characterization of Taiwan as “China’s Taiwan.”

Lai further cited Chinese PLA military activities, intensified propaganda operations, and increased espionage and infiltration within and around Taiwan.

The statement reasserted that Beijing’s “one country, two systems” proposal is completely unacceptable to Taiwanese society.

As previously noted, the timing also overlapped with a dispute between China and Japan after Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said Japan would likely intervene militarily if China attacked Taiwan.

Beijing responded with economic retaliation and expressed anger after Japan prepared to deploy a missile system on Yonaguni Island, some 70 miles from Taiwan.

Japanese Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi, who visited the island, said the deployment preparations were moving ahead steadily. This was seen as an ultra-provocative move by Chinese officials.

China’s foreign ministry has grown more and more vocal regarding Japan’s staunch pro-independence stance…

Likely China can’t help but think that there is a US or Western hidden hand behind Japan’s new boldness, especially given Tokyo has so far not backed down despite threatened measures by its top trading partner China, based on total trade value.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 11/26/2025 – 21:00

“Access To Power” Has Become “Access To Energy”

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“Access To Power” Has Become “Access To Energy”

By Ben Hertz-Shargel of Woods Mackenzie

As industry concerns over an AI bubble mount, the scale of data center ambitions continue to grow. As of mid-October, the US data center pipeline reached 245 GW of planned capacity, driven by a handful of enormous, speculative projects. These projects, and the renewable deals hyperscalers are signing, skew heavily toward Texas. More than a quarter of pipeline capacity targets the state, whose pipeline nearly doubled from 35 GW in Q1 to 67 GW in Q3. 

Data Center Alley gives way to Data Center Prairie  

It is conventional wisdom that for data center developers, ‘access to power’ has become the mantra. That is, the importance of fiber proximity to end customers and other data centers has been superseded by the imperative to secure power from utilities. The giga-scale campuses that have been announced this year, sited in Pennsylvania, Wyoming, and particularly West and North Texas, signal yet another pivot in strategy. Developers have increasingly given up confidence that utilities can meet their power and timeline demand and instead seek to build their own generation based on local natural resources. 

Most frequently this resource is natural gas, with a particular focus on the Permian in Texas. Pacifico Energy’s 5-GW GW Ranch, poolside’s 2-GW Project Horizon, and FO Permian’s 5-GW campus in Midland County are examples. The gas network in the US is at capacity, and building new gas generation far from supply means paying for and – perhaps more importantly for developers – waiting for new pipeline capacity. 

In some cases, it should be noted, campuses are being leveraged for their scale and solar or wind resource, such as Tract’s data center parks in Nevada and Utah, and Quantica’s Big Sky Digital Infrastructure campus in Montana. While more headlines have made about the potential for batteries to make data centers flexible assets, we’ve found that batteries are being planned much more commonly to balance renewables at large campuses and to add needed fast-ramping capacity to onsite gas. 

Distorting the capital landscape 

These mega campuses not only reflect a new siting strategy: they distort the capital landscape. The 2% of projects over US$17 billion represent 42% of overall capital deployment, with the 60% of projects below US$1 billion contributing only 8%. With questions already intensifying regarding froth in project investment and company valuations, these projects promise to drive even more froth. 

The two highest-cost projects, Project Jupiter in New Mexico (US$160 billion) and Project Kestrel in Missouri (US$100 billion), are an order of magnitude more expensive than the campuses being developed by companies like Meta and Microsoft, without appreciable increase in IT infrastructure. They are notably being funded through novel financial engineering: Their developers will be both the payers and payees of industrial revenue bonds (IRBs) issued by the local government, a contrivance that enables tax benefits. 

Betting big on onsite generation 

The new energy-chasing campuses are committing to onsite generation in a way that developers have been hesitant to in the past. Hyperscalers have been very clear that they prefer grid power, which requires less operating risk, shorter contract commitments, and no exposure to scope 1 emissions. Developer commitment to onsite generation reflects a bet either that hyperscalers urgency to deploy will overcome their concerns, or that the developer will be able to sell to a new generation of hyperscalers with greater risk tolerance and less concern for sustainability. 

The net result is that while the number of projects in the pipeline with onsite generation has increased only to 10%, these projects represent a whopping 34% of pipeline capacity.

Unsurprisingly, the vast majority of sites are in Texas, and the technology is gas turbines. 

This trend could have significant implications for both energy affordability and reliability. Whether on- or off-grid, projects with utility-scale gas generation will increase gas burns, competing with LNG exports and raising the long-term price of natural gas. This will drive up both gas and electricity bills across the country. To the extent to which turbine-based projects are off-grid, utilities will have an even harder time obtaining turbines given production limitations. That could pose reliability challenges for on-grid load growth, including electrification. 

Whether or not a bubble bursts, these affordability and reliability challenges are likely to provoke state intervention to protect customers. As that begins happens, all bets are off. 

Tyler Durden
Wed, 11/26/2025 – 20:35

“Allahu Akbar”: D.C. National Guard Shooter Identified As Afghan National Who Entered U.S. During Biden Years

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“Allahu Akbar”: D.C. National Guard Shooter Identified As Afghan National Who Entered U.S. During Biden Years

Watch Live: 

Update (2020ET):

CBS News reporter Camilo Montoya-Galvez confirms that the suspect in the shooting of two National Guard members in Washington, D.C., is 29-year-old Afghan national Rahmanullah Lakanwal. Law-enforcement officials told Galvez that Lakanwal entered the U.S. in 2021 during the Biden-Harris regime.

“The suspect reportedly shouted, Allahu akbar!” reporter Julio Rosas wrote on X.

Fox News sources report the shooter overstayed his visa and was in the country illegally.

Earlier, D.C. Mayor Muriel Bowser described the attack on the two National Guard members as “targeted.” West Virginia’s governor initially stated that both Guardsmen had died, but later clarified that there is conflicting information about their conditions.

Lakanwal was arrested shortly after the attack, and the FBI is now investigating it as a possible act of terrorism.

The attack follows Democrats’ escalation of hostile rhetoric against federal authorities for deporting illegal aliens and securing metro areas. Such rhetoric has already fueled assaults on ICE and Border Patrol agents.

Given that the shooter is an Afghan national and the incident is being examined as a potential terrorism case, attention is shifting back to a report from earlier this year in which former CIA targeting officer Sarah Adams warned on the Shawn Ryan Show about “1,000-plus Al-Qaeda–trained fighters within U.S. borders.”

Shortly after the attack, President Trump requested an additional 500 National Guard troops for the Washington, D.C., area. This move suggests the deployment may involve more than routine efforts to clean up homeless encampments or deter street crime; the mere fact that the military is being positioned on the ground points to a broader security threat – one our government is not fully explaining, but one that we suggest below… 

As Sarah Adams recently warned, the next Al-Qaeda attack on the homeland is only a matter of time:

“Well, Al-Qaeda says they trained and deployed a thousand for this attack. First off, I think there are more than a thousand Al-Qaeda members in the United States, but for the Homeland Attack, that number is based on what Al-Qaeda is saying, so they could exaggerate it; however, they did have about 1,400 in the Hamas attack, so the number is not off from what they did in the first round of attacks.”

And just days ago…

The optics here are not great for the Democratic Party’s open-border policies under the Biden-Harris regime, which facilitated a mass migration invasion into the US. The posturing of military forces on streets in DC underscores the severity of the threat – and it’s now clear this was never just about clearing homeless encampments or removing drug addicts from street corners. 

Politically, the incident gives Trump even more cover to accelerate his planned deportation campaign. It will also continue much-needed scrutiny on Islamists and Islamist Marxists who seek to destroy the nation from within. 

Related: 

 Democrats are terrified – the news cycle is about to turn on them. Will they suddenly be interested in the Epstein files again? 

*  *  * 

 

Update: The West Virginia governor has issued a strange backtrack after minutes prior to announcing the guard members who were shot were “confirmed dead”. He now cites “conflicting reports” of their condition. A shooter is in custody. Hopefully, they have survived.

*  *  *

AP News reports that two National Guard soldiers were shot point-blank just outside the White House perimeter at 17th & H NW.

President Trump has responded, saying both soldiers have been critically wounded by the “animal that shot the two National Guardsmen” and said the attacker “will pay a very steep price.” The president’s words at this point imply a lone shooter in custody.

The conditions of the soldiers are not yet known.

Dramatic image from the scene:

“The White House is aware and actively monitoring this tragic situation. The President has been briefed,” White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt told NewsNation’s Libbey Dean.

The suspect is reportedly in custody, according to an X post by DC Police.

This incident is likely to further inflame Trump’s anger over lawlessness in Democrat-run cities. Expect a Truth Social post shortly.

“Just a few days ago, six Democrats claimed President Trump was issuing “unlawful” orders to the military and that troops must resist,” Benny Johnson noted on X.

*  *  *

A dramatic scene is unfolding near the White House on Wednesday afternoon, with reporters saying a National Guard member has been shot.

ABC News reports:

Two uniformed military personnel, appearing to be National Guardsmen, have been shot in downtown Washington just blocks from the White House, according to two sources familiar with the ongoing situation.

Mike Carter, White House Correspondent for NEWSMAX, wrote on X that “Secret Service tells me 2 National Guard members have just been shot near the White House.” 

Here’s more…

Just wait. Trump is about to go nuclear on Truth Social. 

*Developing… 

Tyler Durden
Wed, 11/26/2025 – 20:20

Thanksgiving Is Now One Of America’s Most Dangerous Holidays, New Analysis Shows

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Thanksgiving Is Now One Of America’s Most Dangerous Holidays, New Analysis Shows

Insuranceopedia reviewed national datasets from the NSC, FEMA, NFPA, NHTSA, and the CDC to analyze accident trends surrounding Thanksgiving. The results show that Thanksgiving surpasses Christmas, Memorial Day, and even the Fourth of July in several key danger categories.

  • Thanksgiving is the most dangerous U.S. holiday for fires, with a 388% spike in home fires.

  • Thanksgiving week car crashes killed 2,525 people from 2020–2024, more than any other major holiday.

  • 40% of all injuries on Thanksgiving Day come from structural fires.

“Most people think of Thanksgiving as a low-risk holiday, but the data paints the opposite picture,” Says Max Coupland, CEO of Insuranceopedia.

 “Between rushed travel, long cooking hours, and unfamiliar foods around curious pets, it’s a perfect storm for accidents. Our goal is to help families stay safe and avoid the kinds of claims we see spike every November.”

1. Thanksgiving Driving Is Deadlier Than Any Other Major Holiday

Thanksgiving travel may feel routine, but the numbers tell a different story:

  • 2,525 people were killed in car crashes over Thanksgiving week from 2020–2024 — higher than Christmas, Labor Day, July 4th, and Memorial Day. (Source: National Safety Council)

  • 36% of all Thanksgiving week traffic fatalities involve a drunk driver. (Source: NHTSA)

  • 8% of all annual car accident injuries occur during Thanksgiving week alone. (Source: National Safety Council)

Experts say the deadly combination of alcohol, rushed travel, and congested roads makes Thanksgiving week uniquely hazardous.

Driving Safety Tips For Thanksgiving

  • Give yourself extra time so you don’t feel pressured to speed.

  • Stay overnight or limit alcohol consumption.

  • Avoid distractions and focus fully on the road.

  • When possible, avoid peak travel times during the most dangerous days of Thanksgiving week.

2. Thanksgiving Is the No. 1 Day of the Year for House Fires

Thanksgiving isn’t just the biggest cooking day of the year — it’s also the most dangerous.

  • Thanksgiving Day sees an average of 1,500 reported fires — 388% higher than the daily average. (Source: NFPA)

  • 1,446 home cooking fires were reported on Thanksgiving Day 2023 alone. (Source: NFPA)

  • 40% of all Thanksgiving Day injuries come from structural fires. (Source: FEMA USFA)

  • Residential fires on Thanksgiving cause five deaths each year on average. (Source: FEMA USFA)

  • Most incidents happen between 10 a.m. and 5 p.m., during meal prep. (Source: FEMA USFA)

The #1 cause of fires on Thanksgiving? Unattended cooking.

Fire Safety Tips For Thanksgiving

  • Stay in the kitchen while cooking, especially when frying or simmering.

  • Keep kids and pets away from hot surfaces and kitchen tools.

  • Test smoke alarms before starting holiday meal prep.

  • Keep floors clear to avoid dangerous slips while handling hot items.

  • Ensure cords from appliances aren’t dangling or accessible to children or pets.

3. A Hidden Danger: Food Poisoning from Mishandled Turkey

Foodborne illness spikes every Thanksgiving, and improper turkey preparation is a major culprit.

  • 78% of people rinse their raw turkey, spreading bacteria around their sink and countertops. (Source: CDC)

  • Even after cleaning, 14% still have lingering contamination in or around the sink. (Source: CDC)

Food Safety Tips For Thanksgiving

  • Thaw the turkey far enough in advance and cook thoroughly.

  • Refrigerate leftovers within 2 hours.

  • Cut large portions into smaller pieces so they cool safely.

  • Eat leftovers within 3–4 days, or freeze them.

  • Always reheat leftovers to 165°F (74°C).

“Thanksgiving should be a time for connection, not catastrophe.” Says Max Coupland.

 “A few simple precautions can prevent the kinds of accidents that turn a celebration into an insurance claim. The goal isn’t to scare people, it’s to help families enjoy the holiday safely and avoid unnecessary risks.”

Tyler Durden
Wed, 11/26/2025 – 20:10

Why No COVID Commission In The US?

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Why No COVID Commission In The US?

Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via The Epoch Times,

They were the hardest years of our lives, marked by the dissolution of rights, liberties, and hope. Sadness swept the land, as forced physical isolation and shattered civic life mutated toward mandates to wear masks and eventually to accept a new injection product.

The liturgy of life fundamentally disrupted, we lost track of the passage of time and saw our social and community networks decimated. Government spending and money printing exploded as never before. For many the whole period feels like a blur, one that resulted in a dramatic devaluation in the value of income and savings.

I speak of course of the COVID years, 2020–2023. Agencies at all levels cancelled religious holidays, closed small businesses and schools, imposed limits on house parties, and overturned traditional election protocols. It went on for three years. It was in the name of health but health collapsed during this period. It all feels like madness in retrospect.

People these days barely want to speak about the subject, because it is still somewhat divisive but mainly because it is deeply painful. It was this way following the Great War, a trauma on a similar scale. Most people just wanted it to go away, and to put it all in the rearview mirror.

That said, when people do open up about what happened, they share shocking stories of personal tragedy and loss. Only this past week, a man told me about his dream business he had started 10 years ago and then built into a growing wholesale machine with 200-plus employees and bright prospects ahead. With the lockdowns, all orders for his project stopped. The company collapsed in two weeks. All employees lost their jobs and he and his wife lost their dreams. They divorced soon after.

Today his idea and a version of his project is in most major stories, as manufactured by huge corporate enterprises. He changed professions and is still digging out from a financial hole.

It’s just one story but something replicated in some form millions of times over. Kids who experienced this will never forget it, and parents have few choices but to describe the whole thing as a time when adults lost their minds.

Remember that all of this happened not just in the United States but in 194 countries around the world. The policies were strikingly similar everywhere. It was a time in which human interaction was described as disease spreading and therefore to be avoided in the interest of “slowing the spread.”

Only a few nations resisted: Sweden, Tanzania, Nicaragua, and Belarus. Sweden in particular experienced far better outcomes even from the targeted pathogen, the best in Europe. The population in general avoided trauma.

After all this time, one might suppose that the world would be awash in apologies along with pledges never to do anything like this again. One possible path to making this happen might be a COVID Commission. The United States has never formed one. Early on, there was talk about such a thing but it never came to fruition. Even now, there are no plans for such a thing.

This is for a reason. An honest report, one informed and written by independent researchers, would implicate both political parties, most universities, many government agencies, the Big Tech and pharmaceutical sectors, churches and schools that went along, in addition to a massive swath of incumbent elites in foundations.

Sadly, that is just not going to happen. I wish it were otherwise. Any official commission report written as a coverup would be dead on arrival. Not even the establishment is that dumb.

I would like to live in a society in which mistakes are admitted, brutality is repudiated, institutions adapt in light of failure, and leadership is mature enough to seek forgiveness for wrongdoing. We hope for a narrative of history that is self-correcting in real time: error followed by pledges to improve and sin by repentance and propitiation.

Sadly none of that is to be.

Somehow it came to be that the United Kingdom did put together an official commission.

It has spent upwards of 500 million pounds and taken years in testimony. The second part of the report just appeared. It features a helpful summary of its conclusions for those who do not want to slog through the entire thing. It is one that could have been predicted from the start. It comes down to four words:

“Too little, too late.”

Translation: The commission has decided that the UK waited too long to issue stay-at-home orders and shut businesses, churches, and schools. If it had acted in February rather than March 2020 and with greater ferocity, they have declared, somehow the outcomes would have been better. In short, there is no regret at all except for one point: it should have been more and sooner.

They know this because computer models tell them so.

Sure, the report admits, there were all sorts of mistakes in coordination, communication, and costing. This is bureaucratic speak for: we need more money next time. The report takes no issue with the disease modeling that gave rise to the lockdowns in the first place. The ineffective shot is not addressed in this particular report but we can anticipate what later reports will say: its only failure traces to slow uptake and vaccine resistance.

The huge lesson: “Governments must act swiftly and decisively to stand any chance of stopping the spread of a virus.”

In other words, they are going to do it again, more quickly and harder.

There is a feature of this report that simply breaks my heart. This is because I seriously doubt that anyone really believes in the truth of it. The claim is utterly unsustainable in light of any and all evidence. The Swedish experience is not discussed in any depth. It cannot because the Swedish experience disproves everything in this report.

I’ve been writing about this topic for five going on six years. My first piece was from January 2020, and it warned that if governments try to take on the microbial kingdom it will lose and utterly discredit themselves. I said this before we even knew of the thousand-fold differential in medically significant impact between the young and elderly and infirm. Even if the virus had been more serious, the result would have been the same.

Another reason that this report is demoralizing: tens and hundreds of thousands of actual experts the world over have debunked the pandemic response in countless numbers of papers, articles, and books. Have these protests made no difference at all? Are officials at all levels going to pretend forever as if these do not exist?

I don’t know the answer but this much I know: We cannot look to official statements of these sorts to codify truth. Instead, we can only count on them to be self-serving, a means of protecting the reputations and jobs of the very people who made such dreadful errors.

Just as no one should look to government to stop a fast-spreading and fast-mutating respiratory virus, we should not be looking to government commissions to admit error and pledge to do better next time. Just as the pandemic response discredited so many institutions, kicking off a new age of widespread distrust of everything and everyone, so too will more such reports entrench our culture of incredulity.

Given these conditions, the United States is better off with no commission at all. That said, it would be good for at least one legislative body to speak clearly and plainly about all that went wrong. My choice would be the U.S. Senate.

Maybe there is some chance of that with enough push from the grassroots. So long as there are no admissions of wrongdoing, there will be no healing from the anger and distrust that characterizes our times. This problem is not going away. As time has rolled on, the reality of what happened is ever more present in our lives.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 11/26/2025 – 18:05

US Has Been Conducting “Bomber Attack Demos” Buzzing Venezuela Once Per Week

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US Has Been Conducting “Bomber Attack Demos” Buzzing Venezuela Once Per Week

Another US B-52 bomber conducted a flight near Venezuela’s coastline earlier this week, according to flight-tracking data, continuing a pattern of regular bomber activity amid threated regime change action targeting President Nicolás Maduro.

These flights have occurred at a rate of about once a week for over a month, and are meant as a very public threat and warning, given the bombers which often fly from bases deep within the continental United States intentionally keep their transponders on so they can be tracked. 

USAF

According to the latest reports, in this fresh flight that occurred Monday two B-52s departed from Minot Air Force Base, with one returning to base while the other proceeded toward the Caribbean, flying close to Venezuela’s northern coast near Caracas.

The bomber was additionally escorted by US Navy F/A-18 fighter jets. The last known flight prior to this was on November 20. That one was notably as it was accompanied by F/A-18s launched from the USS Gerald Ford, which just this month began patrolling the Caribbean Sea. 

There’s been a lot of speculation of late over just what President Trump intends to do with the unprecedented US military build-up in the Caribbean.

There’s concern that he is preparing to launch imminent military action against the Maduro government, but the White House has also signaled that last minute-diplomacy could still ensure peace, and there are unverified claims that Presidents Trump and Maduro may speak by phone.

Previously the Wall Street Journal commented on how rare the B-52 bomber flights are in prior history in the region:

The U.S. has seldom flown bombers near South America in recent decades, usually carrying out just one planned training mission a year. But more missions involving bombers could be carried out soon, according to two defense officials. 

Thursday’s flights signal “seriousness and intent,” said David Deptula, a retired Air Force general and Dean of the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies, an aerospace think tank. “You’re bringing an enormous set of capabilities…endurance, payload, range and precision,” he said.

The US Southern Command (SOUTHCOM) had earlier this month described its first bomber flights near Venezuela as a “bomber attack demonstration mission” in skies over the southern Caribbean.

It could be a ‘dry run’ for imminent war, or else major attacks on cartels. Also widely reported this week is the potential start of US covert action in Venezuela. 

Tyler Durden
Wed, 11/26/2025 – 17:40

Why This Fear Of Deflation?

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Why This Fear Of Deflation?

Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via The Epoch Times,

Certain myths survive from a period of trauma. They can be wholly incorrect and yet widely believed by nearly all living experts. The myth keeps moving from generation to generation and becomes doctrine, one which we dare not question for fear of contradicting the settled consensus. It so happens that “everyone knows” something that is entirely incorrect.

The myth in this case is that deflation, in the form of falling prices, is always to be avoided at all costs. This myth is global.

The other day, Bloomberg and Economic Times whipped up a frenzy with an article called “What India can do about its low inflation problem.”

“India’s economy, so often touted for potential to supplant China as a global engine, is having a hard time getting its arms around inflation. Not that it’s too high, but because the pace of price increases is worryingly low.”

The prescription is always the same: loosen the money and pump up the prices, robbing savers and consumers of all production.

How can they say this? Because everyone believes it.

India has had a roaring inflation problem in recent years, same as everyone else. I’m just going to eyeball this and say that the currency has lost 30 percent of its value over five years, again, not an unusual experience. Finally we have inflation tamed to the 2–3 percent realm. That means only that the problem is getting worse more slowly.

This is not deflation. Not even close.

And yet at this very moment, we are told that India has another problem. Inflation is too low! The central bank has to act before it is too late!

Some of this confusion truly results from sloppy use of language. When inflation is falling, that vaguely feels like prices are falling. Not so! It only means that prices are rising more slowly than previously. This is not deflation. This is a lower rate of inflation.

The language problem is coupled with a strange public psychology. For years, I’m convinced, consumers really believed that the inflation was temporary. Maybe you believed this too. I think I did briefly until I remembered that there is no way that the monetary authorities would actually let overall prices fall.

Whatever damage has been done over five years is really done. Nothing can fix it. The price level will never go back to what it was. The monetary unit is permanently devalued. Sorry to be the bearer of bad news.

Why this entrenched phobia of deflation? It all traces to a grave confusion over cause and effect that began in 1930 and continued for the length of the Great Depression. During these years, the seemingly impossible happened. The purchasing power of the currency actually increased. This is something to celebrate, not regret, as explained at length in Murray Rothbard’s book America’s Great Depression.

Broadening this out a bit, the purchasing power of the dollar actually gained 66 percent between 1920 and 1933. This was a welcome relief following the 50 percent decline that hit soon after the Federal Reserve was created in 1913.

Imagine sticking dollars in your mattress. You decide to check on them 13 years later. You discover that they have gained in value, without using a bank to pay interest or otherwise investing. You have saved money and made money at the same time. This is absolutely glorious for the public.

It was a one-time thing, sorry to report. It never happened again. After 1933, the valuation of the dollar began to fall because inflation returned. Incredibly, this was the intended policy outcome. The monetary elites intended to create inflation.

Why did they do this? Because the prevailing economic theory at the time preached that the reason for the decline in business activity was the deflation itself. Somehow they decided that the way to fix the problem was to make goods and services more expensive for consumers and businesses.

This was of course the prevailing Keynesian theory. It rejected all historical experience. A mild deflation had characterized the Gilded Age, the greatest period of rising prosperity recorded in any nation in the whole history of mankind. It was only a few decades in the rearview mirror.

Somehow the generation of the 1930s had adopted a fashionable view that everything can and should be reinvented according to an engineering model. This included economics—a discipline dating back many hundreds of years to the late Middle Ages. This generation imagined that they could repeal basic economic laws with power and expertise.

They got to President Herbert Hoover himself, who was panicked about economic conditions following the stock market crash of 1929. He had two years before the election and was worried about the fate of his party. As a result, he listened to the experts who told him that the CAUSE of the decline in business activity was the tendency of prices to decline.

If that is true—which it was not—the only solution is to repump the economy, raise wages, set price floors, and attempt to reflate using the power of the Federal Reserve. Hoover did all these things between 1930 and 1932, all in hopes of boosting his election.

In other words, Hoover had run a test case of the first New Deal. I am profoundly aware that the historians won’t tell you this but he was a huge interventionist, unlike his Republican predecessors who let the business cycle run its course. Using modern parlance, Hoover was a leftist for the totality of this period. FDR merely picked up on his themes and made everything worse.

Arguably, if Hoover had done nothing at all, the economic downturn of 1930 might have run its course in time for the presidential election and he would have won over FDR. Instead, his actions pushed the economy deeper into recession and FDR won in a landslide. FDR had campaigned for balanced budgets and fiscal frugality. He took exactly the opposite path once he had power.

Why did FDR do this? Because he too had listened to the experts who all said that the problem in need of fixing was the deflation. Common sense would have refuted this bogus notion. Prices were falling as a corrective to the previous boom. Production structures desperately needed to be rebalanced by market forces. Savings needed to be encouraged. Business needed to stop higher-order investments.

FDR was much worse even than Hoover. He devalued the money by closing the banks and then forcibly grabbed gold from the people. Then he revalued the dollar by executive order. That was just the beginning. He disabled labor markets, banned teen labor to make the data look better, and massively subsidized industry.

This was the exact opposite of what needed to happen. As for consumers, they were robbed of the one silver lining from the period of 1929 to 1932, namely the existence of lower prices that made products more affordable and rewarded thrift on the part of savers. This was a gift to the public in the midst of economic depression. The government took away that gift.

Even though FDR mysteriously gained the reputation of having solved the Great Depression, he prolonged it all the way to the Second World War. Recovery did not begin until after the war and Truman was president. Somehow, many people still believe that FDR was a great hero who dug the country out of an economic quagmire.

This is how the legend of deflation began. It is the historical imagination that still fuels the myth in people’s brains. Even now, I promise you that the elites fear deflation far more than inflation. Even after having lost 30 percent of purchasing power in the great inflation of our times, and even though prices are still rising 2-3 percent per year, we hear constantly about the danger of letting inflation rates fall to less than zero.

I’m telling you that consumers and wholesalers would right now welcome and cheer a return to 2019 prices. This is what should happen. To be sure, such a thing would put enormous pressure on banks, likely cause stock markets to fall, and be a major issue to all indebted businesses.

So, yes, this would cause pain—it could even risk default unless government tighten its belt—but the pain is the sort that an alcoholic undergoes when he gives up the bottle. It’s a necessary part of sobriety.

I have zero hope that we can get rid of the myths around deflation but I’m letting you know anyway. Sometimes it’s best just to know what’s true, even if the whole of the establishment rejects it.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 11/26/2025 – 17:15

OpenAI Needs To Fill $207 Billion Funding Hole By 2030: HSBC

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OpenAI Needs To Fill $207 Billion Funding Hole By 2030: HSBC

As the AI ‘circle jerk‘ rages on, OpenAI, the company behind ChatGPT, will need to raise at least $207 billion more by 2030 to simply keep the lights on, according a new analysis by HSBC which takes into account recently disclosed megadeals with Microsoft, Amazon and Oracle. 

Even with bullish assumptions that include 3 billion users, rapid subscription growth, and a giant slice of enterprise AI spending, the company’s projected revenues are nowhere near its exploding bills for energy and chips, the bank says.

“OpenAI is a money pit with a website on top,” according to FT‘s Bryce Elder, who notes that the bigger AI models get, the more cash they burn – and the winner in the LLM landscape may come down to who can continue raising money the longest. 

The Math Behind the $207 Billion Hole

HSBC’s model runs through 2030 and arrives at these headline numbers:

  • Cumulative data-center rental costs (2025-2030): $792 billion – rising to $1.4 trillion by 2033!
  • Projected cumulative free cash flow: $282 billion
  • Additional liquidity from Nvidia/AMD deals, undrawn facilities and cash on hand: ~$68 billion
  • Net funding shortfall: $207 billion (plus a $10 billion buffer)

Key revenue assumptions that still leave OpenAI in the red:

  • Total users reach 3 billion by 2030 (44% of global adults outside China), up from ~800 million today
  • Paid-subscriber conversion rises from ~5% today to 10% by 2030
  • Consumer AI market generates $129 billion annually by 2030 ($87 billion from search, $24 billion from advertising)
  • Enterprise AI market hits $386 billion; OpenAI’s share slips from ~50% today to 37%
  • Resulting 2030 revenue run-rate: roughly $174 billion (in line with CEO Sam Altman’s public hints of $100 billion by 2027 and continued hypergrowth)

HSBC also estimates cloud compute contracts that total up to $1.8 trillion in lifetime value, and notes that out of the 36 gigawtts of power they’ll need, just one-third will be online by 2030. OpenAI’s annual rental bill will approach $620 billion once capacity is fully online later in the decade. 

Biggest Challenges To Come

According to the report, there are several pressure points that could worsen this outlook, possibly forcing drastic action…

Investor Fatigue: “If revenue growth doesn’t exceed expectations and prospective investors turn cautious, OpenAI would need to make some hard decisions.” -FT

Debt-market jitters: Oracle’s recent bond volatility after its OpenAI deal shows how quickly sentiment can sour.

Souring intensifies?

Contract lock-in: With most cloud deals running for 4-5 years and containing stiff penalties for early exits, OpenAI has little wiggle room.

Competition: “OpenAI’s consumer market share slips to 56 per cent by 2030, from around 71 per cent this year. Anthropic and xAI are both given market shares in the single digits, a mystery “others” is assigned 22 per cent, and Google is excluded entirely.” -FT

No AGI in the model: HSBC explicitly excludes any revenue or efficiency windfall from artificial general intelligence – an omission that could prove either prudent or massively conservative.

While HSBC provides a sobering view of OpenAI, they’re actually very bullish on AI as a concept…

We expect AI to penetrate every production process and every vertical, with a great potential for productivity gains at a global level. [ . . . ]

Some AI assets may be overvalued, some may be undervalued too. But eventually, a few incremental basis points of economic growth (productivity-driven) on a USD110trn+ world GDP could dwarf what is often seen as unreasonable capex spending at present.

GPT COUNTERS!

For shits and giggles we asked ChatGPT if it thought HSBC was correct in their analysis. While the LLM mostly agreed, it said that the bank ignored;

  • architectural efficiency improvements
  • distillation
  • sparse expert models
  • on-device inference
  • agent-delegated execution
  • reinforcement-learning-optimized efficiency
  • quantization
  • open-weight local models replacing cloud calls

In other words, “There is no historical precedent in computing where efficiency didn’t massively improve as scaling occurred.”

What say you?

Tyler Durden
Wed, 11/26/2025 – 16:50

Connecting The Dots… Reveals A Dire Picture

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Connecting The Dots… Reveals A Dire Picture

Authored by Jim Quinn via The Burning Platform blog,

“Reflect on what happens when a terrible winter blizzard strikes. You hear the weather warning but probably fail to act on it. The sky darkens. Then the storm hits with full fury, and the air is a howling whiteness. One by one, your links to the machine age break down. Electricity flickers out, cutting off the TV. Batteries fade, cutting off the radio. Phones go dead. Roads become impossible, and cars get stuck. Food supplies dwindle.

Day to day vestiges of modern civilization – bank machines, mutual funds, mass retailers, computers, satellites, airplanes, governments – all recede into irrelevance. Picture yourself and your loved ones in the midst of a howling blizzard that lasts several years. Think about what you would need, who could help you, and why your fate might matter to anybody other than yourself. That is how to plan for a saecular winter. Don’t think you can escape the Fourth Turning. History warns that a Crisis will reshape the basic social and economic environment that you now take for granted.” – Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning

Knowing who to trust and who to distrust at this point in history is the most important quality for anyone who expects to maneuver their lives and those of their loved ones through the final years of this Fourth Turning. I trust people who base their opinions on facts, not some government approved narrative regurgitated by legacy media bubble headed bimbos and “expert” talking heads. Michael Burry, Ed Dowd and Edward Snowden are men whose opinion I value.

They have all put their careers on the line telling the truth, when virtually everyone else was toeing the Deep State/Wall Street/Big Pharma line regarding the surveillance apparatus monitoring everything we say on our phones or type on our computers; the Federal Reserve/Wall Street manufactured housing bubble to replace the Dot.com bubble; the Covid plandemic created as an excuse to manufacture trillions of new debt because our empire of debt began seizing up in September 2019; and the current Everything Bubble (commercial real estate, residential housing, stocks, bonds, bitcoin, AI).

I’ve been a huge fan of Ed Dowd since reading his principled, factual, data driven destruction of the Covid narrative in real-time when the world had lost its mind and had bowed down to the authoritarian dictates of our government overlords. He was right all along about the Covid scheme to enrich Big Pharma, politicians, and legacy media, while seeing how far the ignorant masses could be pushed before they pushed back. Other than Ed and a small minority of other brave truth tellers, the globalist elite scheme worked to perfection, with billions injected with a toxic gene altering concoction, and the power of government enhanced and broadened.

The tweet below from Ed Dowd was from sixteen months ago, four months before the election of Donald Trump. Absolutely no one was speculating about the scenario Ed laid out. And now his “conspiratorial conjecture” is playing out in real time. No one with any brains wanted the dementia ridden basement dummy or the cackling brain dead hyena, and their cult party of death and destruction to continue their reign of terror on our nation.

Trump and his MAGA legions swept into power (or was he ushered into power?) with promises of America First, an economic renaissance, retribution for the criminal politicians in DC who conducted a coup against Trump, the instantaneous end of wars, MAHA, releasing the Epstein client list, and drastic reduction in government spending through Musk’s DOGE initiative. The level of hope and enthusiasm from Trump’s base, and even the moderates who voted against Kamala, was off the charts. NOT ANY MORE.

The real owners as described by George Carlin and/or the invisible government as described by Edward Bernays, really don’t care which figurehead from the uni-party is installed at the top of this dung heap of debt. The fleecing of the national treasury continues unabated by the ruling class, and the plight of the plebs deteriorates on a daily basis. But they have been convinced by their overlords to continue going deeper into debt, while thinking they can vote their way out of this delusional debt debacle of a floundering empire.

Trump’s closure of the border and continuing modest efforts to deport the tens of millions of illegal invaders is about the only real positive I’ve witnessed in his first year in office. The old “at least he’s not Kamala” mantra is wearing thin and does not explain his exasperatingly stupid decisions and bloviating pronouncements on a daily basis. Those who adhere to the principles of liberty, freedom, transparency, free speech, not policing the world, and fiscal responsibility are extremely disappointed, but not surprised by the results under Trump thus far. His absolute vitriolic hatred for Rand Paul, Thomas Massie, and Marjorie Taylor Greene, who voted with him 90% of the time, tells me all I need to know about Trump’s moral compass and adherence to the Constitution.

Despite the initial publicity campaign (propaganda) for DOGE and the huge cuts to spending which Trump spewed on a daily basis, the national debt increases by $6.5 billion PER DAY, just as it did under the pants shitting president before him. Future generations are incurring $3.3 billion PER DAY of interest on the now $39 trillion national debt. Trump’s tariff revenue is like pissing in an ocean of debt, as he acts like he is going to send us $2,000 checks with the money he just made us pay by imposing the tariffs. The big beautiful bill cut nothing. Ignoring future recessions and multiple looming wars, the CBO projects the debt to go up by another $23 trillion in the next ten years. I’ll take the over, if the entire Ponzi scheme doesn’t collapse beforehand.

The president who was going to end all the wars funded Israel’s mass genocide in Gaza and their attacks on Iran, while bombing Iran’s nuclear facilities with U.S. forces. Trump has continued to fund Ukraine’s futile war against Russia, while utilizing U.S. weaponry and personnel to conduct drone attacks within Russia. Trump and his NATO minions are conducting a proxy war against Putin, risking a WW3 and nuclear scenario. And now, under the guise of fighting the drug war, he is blowing up speedboats and planning to overthrow Maduro in Venezuela. I’m sure this is about illegal drugs and not the 300 billion barrels of oil sitting under Venezuela’s footprint.

It seems the government shutdown, which 95% of the country didn’t even notice because the government does absolutely nothing but shake us down for tax dollars to distribute to their cronies and enrich themselves, has allowed Trump and his bureaucrat minions to pretend they can’t calculate and announce the true figures regarding GDP, CPI, and employment. If the numbers were good, they would be shouting them from the roof of the White House. The fact they are refusing to report key economic data tells you all you need to know.

I guess the fact government reported inflation in January 2025 when Trump took over was 3.0% (real figures of 5% to 10%) and it continues to run at 3.0% today doesn’t actually support Trump’s narrative of lower prices. And the average person, who shops for groceries, pays their monthly electric and gas bill, buys clothes, pays rent or a mortgage, and lives in the real world, knows they are being screwed while the ruling class reaps the windfall of inflated stock prices and want even more.

Trump threatening Powell to reduce interest rates isn’t to help you. It’s to help his real constituents on Wall Street, in corporate executive suites, and globalist billionaires who pull his puppet strings. Senior citizens who depend on interest income will be screwed coming and going, as their income will decline and the rise in inflation will make their living expenses rise further. I can’t understand why consumer confidence continues to fall and delinquencies on car loans, credit cards, student loans, and mortgages hit multi-year highs every month.

If Trump ever had any conservative principles, he has completely abandoned them. His totalitarian tendencies show themselves more each day, as he picks winners and losers within the economy, threatening to deport the Intel CEO one day and then investing $9 billion of your tax dollars in that company a week later. He is now all in on the AI scam, throwing billions of your tax dollars at these scam artists at Nvidia, Palantir, Oracle and the rest of the lying Silicon Valley scum, bilking investors and ultimately the tax payers out of their hard earned money. If this entire AI narrative is nothing but hot air and fraudulent promises, and it accounts for half of the country’s GDP growth, we will relive the Too Big To Fail 2008 bailout when it all blows up in the not too distant future.

Catherine Austin Fitts has been warning about the coming digital gulag for years. We now have a state sanctioned bubble in AI, with the billionaire club cheering it on, knowing they will be bailed out again when it all goes to shit, like bubbles always do. The fact Trump is encouraging this and adding fuel to the fire reveals this is all part of the ultimate plan to enslave us under the guise of saving the world once again. First it was the great financial crisis (2008/2009), then it was Covid (2020-2022), and now for the coup de grace with the implosion of the everything bubble and rollout of CBDCs, digital surveillance, social credit scores, and living under the thumb of a global authoritarian aristocracy.

The globalists attempting to enact their WEF sanctioned Great Reset agenda see China as the template for enslaving the populations of the Western world. They are already monitoring the vast majority of all your communications, as Edward Snowden revealed over a decade ago. The noose tightens around our necks, as Trump and his acolytes enact measures to further reduce our liberty, freedom and rights. This is all building towards a final showdown. One day within the next few years the powers that be will pull the final block out of this jenga tower of unsustainable debt and it will all come crashing down. They will rush to assure you they can fix this if you just trust them once again and agree to their conditions of survival.

I think I’ve connected the dots, and they paint a dire picture of the future, unless we refuse to comply with their plans. Will you and I have the courage to resist and fight their diabolical enslavement plans? Fourth Turnings always come down to a final battle between good and evil, with clear winners and losers. If they win, we become slaves in their digital gulag for eternity. If, against all odds, the liberty minded, freedom loving citizens of the world can somehow defeat these billionaire psychopaths in suits, along with their armies of feckless bureaucrats and politicians, future generations will have the opportunity to blaze a new path forward. I’m not a guy who hangs my hat on a hope narrative, but I am willing to fight for a better future for my children and their children. I hope you join me in this fight.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 11/26/2025 – 16:25

Forged Letters, Luxury Lifestyle: Takeaways So Far From Trial Of Accused Chinese Agent And Hochul, Cuomo Aide

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Forged Letters, Luxury Lifestyle: Takeaways So Far From Trial Of Accused Chinese Agent And Hochul, Cuomo Aide

Authored by Nichaolas Zifcak via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

In the trial of Linda Sun, the former aide to New York governors who is accused of acting as a Chinese agent, the court has heard evidence that Sun forged the signature of Gov. Kathy Hochul, had close contact with Chinese consular staff, and purchased luxury items with payouts from China.

New York Gov. Kathy Hochul’s former aide, Linda Sun (R), and her husband, Christopher Hu, leave federal court after their arraignment in New York City on Sept. 3, 2024. Corey Sipkin/AP Photo

The former aide to Hochul and former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo was indicted in 2024 over allegedly using her position to push the agenda of the Chinese Communist Party in return for millions of dollars paid to her husband’s business. Sun has pleaded not guilty.

Sun is on trial in federal court in the Eastern District of New York in the New York City borough of Brooklyn, with former colleagues and coworkers taking the stand to testify.

After almost two weeks of a trial that is expected to run until mid-December, here are some key takeaways so far.

Delegation Invitation Letters Allegedly Forged

Federal prosecutors alleged that Sun put together an official invitation letter to help Chinese officials travel to New York state. Without approval, she allegedly signed then-Lt. Gov. Hochul’s signature on the letter, which was on official letterhead. According to the prosecution, officials from Henan Province, China, used that letter to apply for visas to travel to the United States.

Prosecutors showed the letter to Jeffrey Lewis, who worked for Hochul for 13 years, including as her chief of staff. Lewis was authorized to use her signature.

Lewis testified that the signature on the invitation for Henan officials was not Hochul’s. He explained that Hochul connects and merges the “h” and “y” in Kathy; that the “h” in Hochul is connected with the “o”; and that the “h,“ ”u,“ and ”l” run together.

Lewis also testified that the only Chinese delegation invitation letter he could recall that Gov. Cuomo requested Lt. Gov. Hochul write was one in 2017, for a delegation from Jiangxi Province.

Lewis also pointed out that the alleged forged letters were on a generic letterhead from the governor’s office, which is distinct from the letterhead of the lieutenant governor, which was used in the Jiangxi letter. In 2018 and 2019, the years in which the Henan letters were issued, Sun worked in the office of the governor.

Liaison With Chinese Consular Staff

Prosecutors presented evidence suggesting that Sun prioritized requests of the Chinese Consulate over her duty to the state of New York.

In 2019, Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen traveled to New York City and held a banquet on July 12. Taiwan’s representatives there invited Cuomo to join the event.

Prosecutors presented emails at trial that showed that when Sun received the banquet invitation for the governor, her first action was not to forward it to the governor’s scheduler, but to immediately alert the Chinese Consulate.

The emails showed that Sun received the invitation on July 5 at 6:32 p.m. One minute later, at 6:33 p.m., she emailed her contact at the Chinese Consulate in New York City, Li Li Hu, with the text “FYI.”

The following day, Sun replied to the representative for Taiwan and declined the invitation on the governor’s behalf.

According to Jessica Pulver, who worked in the governor’s Invitations Office in 2019, the office never received the invitation for Cuomo to join the banquet with Tsai. In testimony at the trial, Pulver explained that the expectation was that all invitations for the governor would be forwarded.

The incident is one example of the close collaborative relationship Sun had with the Chinese Consulate, according to prosecutors. When Consul General Zhang Qiyue left her post in New York City in May 2018, she sent Sun a farewell letter that ended with, “Your personal friendship and kind support will always be cherished.”

Luxury Goods

During FBI searches of Sun’s and her parents’ homes, the FBI found luxury cars, watches, and designer handbags. These items, prosecutors said, suggest means beyond that of her state employee salary, which in 2021 was $144,000.

In addition, documents and gifts from Chinese officials show a pattern of close ties with Chinese officials, according to prosecutors.

In July 2024, the FBI searched Sun’s home in Manhasset, New York, and her parents’ apartment in the Flushing neighborhood of the New York City borough of Queens, as well as their TD Bank deposit box.

During those searches, the FBI found luxury goods including a Rolex Submariner, a Patek Philippe Aquanaut watch, and several Hermès Birkin handbags.

Authorities also found several high-end cars—a 2024 Ferrari Roma, a 2024 Range Rover, a 2022 Mercedes GLB SUV, and an Audi Q5—as well as a deposit box with $130,000 in cash.

FBI agents also testified to finding a number of documents in Chinese and objects associated with the Chinese regime, including a 1-kilogram friendship coin of solid silver, likely worth more than $1,600 today.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 11/26/2025 – 15:05