For the seventh straight year, Visual Capitalist sifted through the forecast landscape to bring you the Prediction Consensus, a synthesis of what analysts, thought leaders, and industry experts expect for the year ahead.

This year, Nick Routley analyzed over 2,000 individual predictions from a wide variety of sources including Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, the IMF, The Economist, Deloitte, Microsoft, Gartner, and dozens more.

By mapping where these forecasts overlap, we’ve distilled the noise into 25 high-conviction themes displayed in our “Bingo Card” format, with the number of dabs reflecting the volume of supporting predictions.

To get the full analysis of the Prediction Consensus and to see what’s ahead for 2026, become a member of VC+ or purchase the full Global Forecast Series report and package.

The General Vibe of 2026

If 2025 was a year of adjustment – markets recalibrating to higher rates, geopolitics reshuffling around a second Trump administration and tariffs, and AI moving from hype to deployment – then 2026 is shaping up as a year of consolidation and consequence.

The consensus mood is cautiously optimistic but shot through with uncertainty. Morgan Stanley describes 2026 as “The Year of Risk Reboot,” a period where market focus shifts from macro anxieties to micro fundamentals, creating fertile ground for risk assets. The policy backdrop is unusually supportive: fiscal stimulus, continued (if slower) monetary easing, and deregulation form what analysts call a “policy triumvirate” rarely seen outside of recessions.

Yet The Economist strikes a more sober tone, warning that 2026 will be defined by uncertainty as Trump’s reshaping of geopolitical norms continues to ripple worldwide. The old rules-based order is drifting further, and the line between war and peace grows ever more blurred through gray-zone provocations, cyber incursions, and an ambient rivalry between nations.

In short: risk assets may thrive, but the world beneath them remains turbulent.

AI: Once Again, the Big Story

For the third consecutive year, artificial intelligence dominates the prediction landscape, but the narrative has evolved. Where 2024 forecasts centered on whether AI hype was justified and 2025 focused on deployment at scale, the 2026 conversation is about integration and consequences.

From Tool to Partner

Across industries, AI is moving beyond answering questions to actively collaborating with people and amplifying their expertise.

This is the year of the agentic AI build-out. Deloitte predicts that by year-end 2026, as many as 75% of companies may be investing in agentic AI (autonomous systems that can plan, act, and adapt with limited human oversight). These AI agents are set to become “digital colleagues,” helping small teams punch above their weight. Microsoft envisions a future where a three-person marketing team can launch a global campaign in days, with AI handling data crunching and content generation while humans steer strategy.

After years of anticipation, productivity gains from AI are finally expected to materialize in measurable ways. Morgan Stanley points to AI-driven efficiency as one of six key drivers of their bullish earnings outlook. Software and internet companies are expected to see generative AI revenue grow more than 20-fold over the next three years.

Of course, AI will impact the job market in other ways as well. Professional and knowledge-worker classes that previously felt insulated are now beginning to feel anxiety around job security.

Market Predictions: Riding the AI Wave

Conveniently, AI also dominates the market story. The consensus is unmistakably bullish, though tempered by valuation concerns and awareness of concentration risks.

S&P 500: Double-Digit Gains Expected

Wall Street strategists are clustered in a tight range for year-end 2026 S&P 500 targets:

The bull case from JPMorgan sees the index potentially topping 8,000 if the Fed eases more than expected. Morgan Stanley calls it their most bullish outlook in years, driven by returning operating leverage, AI efficiency gains, accommodative tax and regulatory policy, and contained interest rates.

Importantly, analysts expect earnings to do the heavy lifting in 2026. Bank of America’s Savita Subramanian projects 14% EPS growth but notes that P/E multiples may actually contract by 10 points, meaning the market climbs a wall of valuation skepticism. Morgan Stanley forecasts S&P 500 EPS of $317 in 2026 (17% growth).

Gold’s Super-Cycle Continues

Gold remains a favorite. Morgan Stanley targets $4,500 per ounce—about 9% upside from current levels. The World Gold Council notes that gold achieved over 50 all-time highs in 2025 and may post its fourth-strongest annual return since 1971.

The drivers are structural: central bank buying, geopolitical hedging, and concerns about fiscal sustainability. In a “doom loop” scenario of accelerating fiscal deterioration, gold could surge 15-30% from current levels.

Economic Predictions: Soft Landing, With Caveats

The IMF projects global growth at 3.2% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026—below the pre-pandemic average of 3.7% but not recessionary. Morgan Stanley expects similar numbers: 3.0% global growth in 2025, 3.2% in 2026 and 2027.

Advanced economies are expected to grow around 1.5-1.6%, while emerging markets hold above 4%. The consensus is a soft landing: growth moderates, inflation continues its gradual descent, and central banks ease policy—but not aggressively.

The “Higher for Longer” Era Fades

Central bank policy is expected to continue normalizing. Morgan Stanley’s base case has the Fed cutting to 3.0-3.25% by mid-year and then pausing for an extended period. The BoE is expected to bring rates to 2.75% before pausing. The ECB, facing below-target inflation and sluggish growth, may cut further than markets currently price.

Japan remains the outlier: the only major developed market central bank potentially hiking, with the BoJ expected to reach 0.75% by December before pausing.

Geopolitical & Trade Predictions: Tariffs and Tensions

Tariffs Become the New Normal

Perhaps no theme generates more consensus than this: the tariff regime is here to stay. Trump’s reciprocal tariffs are bringing in close to $300 billion in revenue annually, and while they may face legal challenges (Barclays expects the Supreme Court to deem them illegal), the effective tariff rate has peaked at 12.1%—the highest since 1934.

The economic impact is being absorbed more gracefully than many feared. UBS expects a “soft patch” in early 2026 as tariffs affect U.S. prices, followed by a broadening and strengthening of growth from Q2 onward. But the structural shift is profound: trade may reroute permanently, supply chains are diversifying, and the U.S. is explicitly using tariffs as a tool of economic leverage.

China Leans on Exports and Manufacturing

Facing deflation, a property crisis, and slowing domestic growth, China is pivoting to manufacturing and export dominance. The country is positioning itself as a more reliable partner, particularly in the Global South, striking trade agreements as the U.S. retreats from multilateralism.

Morgan Stanley expects China’s real GDP to expand 5% in 2026, helped by front-loaded government support. But the strategy creates global tensions: industrial overcapacity could flood world markets, and tariff battles may intensify.

Gray-Zone Provocations Increase

The Economist warns that Russia and China will test American commitment to allies through “gray-zone” provocations in northern Europe and the South China Sea. Tensions will rise in the Arctic, in orbit, on the sea floor, and in cyberspace.

This “ambient rivalry” short of outright war but beyond normal peacetime friction is expected to accelerate. Great-power competition will increasingly involve space-based intelligence, drone technology, and AI-powered cyber operations.

Assessing the Consensus

History teaches humility about forecasting. Previous years have contained unforeseen developments, and there’s no reason to expect 2026 to unfold precisely as consensus expects.

What’s valuable isn’t the specific predictions, but themes where informed observers are concentrating their attention. Examples include the transition from AI experimentation to building out infrastructure to support its widespread use. Or stablecoins becoming mainstream financial instruments.

Some of these themes will prove accurate; others will be derailed by events. But taken together, they sketch the landscape that institutions, investors, and policymakers are navigating as they position for the year ahead.

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

We no longer care who’s behind the curtain because we’re in charge of our own lives now.

The Good News is people are realizing We’re On Our Own and starting to take action accordingly.

This article describes how people in one low-income county are localizing self-reliance rather than remain dependent on government subsidies.

The War on Poverty Failed Them–and They’re No Longer Waiting For Help (wsj.com, paywalled) Federal money and projects have come and gone so many times that McDowell County locals have little faith in the government to restore their fortunes; ‘We’re on our own.’

Here in the heart of America’s War on Poverty, some two-thirds of households with children still get food stamps, among the nation’s highest rates, and the estimated median household income hovers around $35,000. Nonfarm employment has plummeted 78% since 1975, according to data compiled by West Virginia University economist John Deskins, as the coal that once powered this rugged place is now mostly mined with machines, if at all, and no other industry has replaced it. The county has lost 67% of its residents over those years, the largest drop in West Virginia, its population dwindling from just over 51,000 to roughly 17,000.

With little faith left in government to break the cycle of poverty, those who remain say it’ss up to them to forge a brighter economic path.

“We’re on our own,” said Jason Tartt. “Nobody’s coming down here to save us.”

Tartt, the grandson of coal miners, is teaching locals, including retired miners and those recovering from opioid addiction, how to farm the forested hillsides. Down the winding, two-lane roads that connect communities, a pastor organizes bottled-water drives for neighbors whose tap water is undrinkable, while the local utility patches together funding for long-term solutions. A tiny, former coal town is trying to transform a shuttered Walmart into a new factory it hopes will jolt the local economy.

Their efforts are small in comparison to the government programs that have sought to revive McDowell County, and can’t make up for the prosperity that slipped away when the coal companies left. But they are spurring hope for renewal in some places, driven by one of the few constants here: resilience.

Nobody includes not just the federal government; it also includes Corporate America. Walmart pulls the plug on under-performing stores regardless of their local importance, and the rest of Corporate America is equally focused on next quarter’s profits.

Dependence breeds helplessness, passivity, addiction and the decay of community. There are alternatives. Those seeking to maintain the status quo dismiss alternatives that don’t require Wall Street, federal monies and Corporate America ownership because those institutions are buttering their bread.

But out in the real world, there are alternatives–underfunded, dismissed as impractical, etc., but real nonetheless, for example: Regenerative Farmers of America (6:19 minutes) (via Chad D.)

As I observe in my book on Self-Reliance in the 21st Century, we all have to start somewhere, and as the Chinese saying put it, the journey of a thousand miles starts with the first step. (A thousand li in the original, of course.)

Self-reliance sounds like an individual journey, but it’s fundamentally a community effort as no one person can fulfill every function. As the number of people participating expands, the self-reliance of each participant expands, too.

Those working on self-reliance tend to lead by example. Get the work done, share the results, keep moving forward. There’s no jetting around to meetings and conferences, just do the work on the ground. Get it done, learn from mistakes and from others’ experiences, experiment to identify what works best in local conditions.

When we realize we really are on our own, things change for the better. We start taking full responsibility for our health, work, goals and integrity. We start thinking through Plans A, B, and if things unravel, Plan C. We lose interest in addictive technologies and substances and other hindrances. We start noticing improvements and taking well-earned pride in them.

We no longer care who’s behind the curtain because we’re in charge of our own lives now.

*  *  *

My new book Investing In Revolution is available at a 10% discount ($18 for the paperback, $24 for the hardcover and $8.95 for the ebook edition). Introduction (free). Check out my updated Books and Films. Become a $3/month patron of my work via patreon.com. Subscribe to my Substack for free

Across the United States, there were 22,830 homicides in 2023, averaging 6.8 deaths per 100,000 people.

Homicide rates vary widely across American cities, influenced by factors such as poverty, inequality, gun laws, and local policing strategies.

This map, via Visual Capitalist’s Niccolo Conte, shows the top 40 U.S. cities by their homicide rate per 100,000 residents and the total number of homicides, based on the latest reported data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Where Homicide Rates Are Highest in America

Cities in the South and Midwest tend to show higher homicide rates, reflecting a combination of economic stress, structural inequality, and regional differences in firearm access and enforcement.

The table below ranks the top 40 U.S. cities by homicide rate:

New Orleans ranks first, with a homicide rate of 46 per 100,000 people. Memphis and St. Louis follow closely, each reporting rates above 38 per 100,000. While these cities have a relatively low number of total homicides, their small population sizes place them among the most violent cities in the country.

In terms of total homicides, Chicago ranks first with more than 800 homicides, followed by Los Angeles and Houston. Despite the high totals, these cities have relatively lower rates due to their large populations.

Many Southern and Western states with high homicide rates also rank highly in gun-related deaths per 100,000 people, reflecting a combination of firearm availability, gun ownership rates, and broader socioeconomic challenges.

If you found this infographic interesting, see this graphic on America’s Most Dangerous Cities on Voronoi.

Authored by JoJo Novaes & Arthur Zhang via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Can you imagine rewinding your biological clock by more than two years in just eight weeks, simply by adjusting your diet and lifestyle? It might be possible.

A study published in Aging found that foods rich in methylated adaptogens significantly reduced epigenetic age. In an eight-week randomized controlled trial, male participants aged 50 to 72 who adopted a methylation-focused diet experienced a decrease in epigenetic age of 2.04 years from baseline. Meanwhile, the control group aged forward by an average of 1.10 years, creating a gap of 3.14 years between the two groups.

Even after accounting for weight changes or baseline epigenetic ages, the results remained strong, indicating that these foods directly influence aging markers.

Epigenetic age reveals how old your cells appear, with DNA methylation patterns serving as a window into cellular aging.

Nutritionist Tsai Yi-fang from Taiwan’s Keyi Nutrition Consultation Center told The Epoch Times on the “Health 1+1” program that methylation is like a toggle switch for your DNA. If you add a methyl group, a gene’s function might shut off; if you remove one, that function flips on. For instance, heavy methylation of tumor suppressor genes could impair their ability to suppress cancer. On the flip side, low methylation of inflammation genes can ramp up your body’s inflammatory response.

Striking the right balance is key—too much or too little methylation can spell trouble.

Top 6 Anti-Aging Superfoods

The study highlights six foods—turmeric, rosemary, garlic, berries, green tea, and oolong tea—that are rich in phytochemicals called methyl adaptogens. These compounds fine-tune DNA methylation, keeping genes in a healthy state and lowering disease risk. Each food also brings unique benefits:

• Turmeric: Packed with curcumin, a potent antioxidant and anti-inflammatory compound that supports liver health and is especially effective for improving non-alcoholic fatty liver disease.
• Berries: Loaded with anthocyanins and vitamin C, berries boast exceptional antioxidant power. Bilberries enhance eye health, grapes support cardiovascular wellness, and cranberries promote urinary tract health.
• Garlic: With antibacterial, antiviral, and immune-regulating properties, garlic strengthens overall health and helps manage conditions such as small intestinal bacterial overgrowth.
• Rosemary: Rich in rosmarinic acid, a powerful antioxidant and anti-inflammatory compound that can relieve headaches, stomach pain, nervous tension, and improve mood and memory.
• Green Tea and Oolong Tea: Both are rich in catechins and polyphenols, providing robust antioxidant and anti-inflammatory benefits.

Additional Methylation-Regulating Foods

In addition to the six foods highlighted in the study, Tsai noted additional foods that regulate methylation:

Beets: Rich in betaine and folate, beets act as methyl donors, supporting methylation regulation in the body, particularly beneficial for people with low methylation levels.

Quinoa: Similar to beets, quinoa is a source of betaine, which provides methyl groups to support a healthy methylation cycle.

Cruciferous Vegetables: Such as broccoli, kale, bok choy, and cabbage, contain high levels of sulforaphane, which influences methylation patterns by regulating DNA methyltransferases (a large family of enzymes) and supports liver detoxification.

Spinach: A leafy green high in folate, spinach also contains magnesium and vitamin B6, essential nutrients for the methylation cycle. Additionally, it provides antioxidants that protect DNA from external damage.

Avocado: Beyond being rich in folate and vitamin B6, avocados contain healthy fatty acids that support brain function and methylation regulation, as well as high levels of glutathione, which aids liver detoxification.

Mushrooms: Mushrooms are packed with vitamins and contain ergothioneine, an antioxidant that protects methyltransferases from oxidative damage.

Methylation-Regulating Herbs

Beyond food, certain herbs also possess methylation-regulating and anti-aging properties, such as Rhodiola rosea and Ashwagandha. However, it’s essential to consult a doctor before taking herbs to ensure they are suitable for your constitution, as improper use may harm health.

Rhodiola Rosea: Balances stress hormones, supports mitochondrial methylation activity, and may protect brain tissue from oxidative stress. Clinical trials have shown that Rhodiola rosea can help alleviate physical and mental symptoms associated with stress and overexertion.

Ashwagandha: Rich in withanolides and alkaloids, Ashwagandha may influence methylation by modulating stress response.

Unhealthy Habits That Hasten Aging

Alongside eating beneficial foods, steering clear of habits that hasten aging is just as vital, Tsai said.

• Chronic Sleep Deprivation and Late Nights: Regularly staying up late or insufficient sleep increases oxidative stress, which damages DNA and proteins, speeding up the aging process.
• Chronic Stress: Persistent stress contributes to bodily damage and accelerates the aging process.
• Lack of Exercise or Overexertion: A sedentary lifestyle or excessive exercise can increase oxidative stress, promoting premature aging.

Foods to Avoid

• Foods High in Sugar: A diet high in sugar fuels glycation, generating harmful advanced glycation end-products that contribute to the aging process.
• Processed Foods: Often laden with nitrites and other carcinogenic substances, processed foods can harm cellular health and increase aging markers.
• Artificial Sweeteners: Disrupt the gut microbiome, potentially causing metabolic imbalances that contribute to aging.

Choosing High-Quality Carbohydrates

Tsai noted the crucial role of high-quality carbohydrates in supporting healthy aging. According to the Nurses’ Health Study, which analyzed dietary data from 47,513 women, long-term intake of nutrient-dense carbohydrates—such as fruits, vegetables, whole grains, and legumes—was linked to improved health in older age. These foods offer key benefits:

• Nutrient-Dense: Rich in dietary fiber, vitamins, and minerals, they support overall wellness and vitality.
• Low-Glycemic Index: Helps maintain stable blood sugar levels, preventing spikes that can accelerate aging.
• Anti-Inflammatory Effects: Reduces inflammation, a major contributor to age-related diseases.

Nutritionist’s Secrets to Youthful Vitality

Tsai shared her proven strategies for maintaining a vibrant, youthful glow through simple, sustainable lifestyle choices:

• Consistent Exercise: Tsai runs twice a week for an hour, alternating fast and slow paces to keep her metabolism humming. Whether it’s cardio or strength training, she recommends choosing an exercise you enjoy and can maintain consistently for long-term benefits.
• Robust Sun Protection: To protect against aging UV rays, Tsai advises using sunscreen and wearing sunglasses during midday or afternoon outings. In polluted urban areas, she recommends wearing a mask to block harmful fine particles that can damage health.
• Clean, Light Eating: Even with frequent meals out, Tsai ensures home-cooked dishes are light and wholesome, allowing her body space to detoxify and rejuvenate.
• Stress Reduction: Chronic stress is a silent accelerator of aging. By scheduling time for relaxation and learning to adapt to stress, Tsai nurtures both mental and physical well-being.

Reversing the clock doesn’t require costly supplements. The true secret lies in daily habits: savor antioxidant-rich, gene-regulating foods, pair them with regular exercise, ample sleep, and stress relief, and keep a positive mindset. Begin now to cultivate lasting vitality!

Public approval of political leaders reflects a mix of economic conditions, policy decisions, and broader voter sentiment. As 2025 comes to a close, approval ratings offer a snapshot of how leaders around the world are perceived heading into 2026.

This visualization, via Visual Capitalist’s Bruno Venditti, ranks major global leaders by approval rating, based on surveys conducted between December 8 and 14, 2025, by Morning Consult.

High Approval at the Top, but Fewer Standouts

India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi ranks first overall, with 71% approval heading into 2026. Although still well ahead of peers, his approval declined modestly from 75% in January 2025.

A similar pattern appears elsewhere: even leaders near the top of the rankings faced gradual erosion in support over the year, reflecting persistent inflation, cost-of-living pressures, and political fatigue among voters.

Approval Gains Reflect New Leadership, Not Turnarounds

Japan, South Korea, Canada, Austria, and Belgium all show higher approval ratings at the end of 2025, but these increases reflect new leaders replacing unpopular predecessors.

Much of Europe enters 2026 with leaders facing net-negative approval. France’s Emmanuel Macron ranks last, with approval in the low teens and disapproval near 80%. The UK’s Keir Starmer, Germany’s Friedrich Merz, and several Nordic leaders also post approval ratings in the 30% range or lower.

In the United States, Donald Trump sits in the middle of the ranking, with approval and disapproval nearly evenly split.

If you enjoyed today’s post, check out The World’s Top Nations by GDP Per Capita Growth on Voronoi, the new app from Visual Capitalist.

A former Russian diplomat has been sentenced to 12 years in a high-security penal colony after being convicted of passing state secrets to the United States, which allegedly happened during his stint as an assistant to Russia’s consulate general in Houston, where he worked between 2014 and 2017.

The Federal Security Service (FSB) announced Friday that 38-year old Arseniy Konovalov has been found guilty of treason. He was detained in March last year on suspicion of providing classified information to American intelligence, and the newly released video of the moment he was detained by the Russian security service while inside a vehicle upon his return to Russia has gone viral. He has a look of utter shock and horror on his face upon realizing what was happening.

The FSB in its statement alleged that “AS Konovalov, an employee of the Russian foreign ministry, during a long-term foreign assignment in the United States, proactively transferred secret information to American intelligence for money.”

The video release further showed Konovalov placed in a holding cage at Moscow’s Lefortovo district court by masked officers after being taken from the vehicle.

On top of the sizeable prison sentence, the court also fined Konovalov 100,000 roubles. The security service did not specify the nature of the information which was allegedly handed over to the US side, nor did it make any supposed evidence public. 

US officials have also not commented on or confirmed the case, but there has been speculation on Russian Telegram channels that Konovalov was recruited by the CIA at some point.

There are reports that espionage and treason investigations and cases overseen by Russian authorities have jumped significantly since the start of the Ukraine war, which is about to reach completion of its fourth year.

Watch: The diplomat’s eyes get big, a shocked and anxious look on his face, at the moment one FSB officer holds up an identifying badge and the others grab him from behind…

A court in Moscow sentenced former Russian diplomat Arseniy Konovalov to 12 years in a maximum-security penal colony for treason, accusing him of passing secrets to U.S. intelligence.

Konovalov, a former Foreign Ministry employee, was arrested in March 2024. pic.twitter.com/SlpoWdTaW5

— Clash Report (@clashreport) December 27, 2025

Certainly there’s been an intelligence-driven ‘dirty war’ happening with intensity behind the scenes both in Russia and Europe, as each rival side tries to gain an informational edge in the context of the NATO vs. Moscow stand-off.

There have also over several years been a number of American travelers and even journalists arrested in Russia on allegations of espionage – though Washington has consistently deemed these ‘wrongful detentions’.

Update (1730ET): Following a call with Russian president Putin and meeting with his Ukrainian counterpart, Volodymyr Zelensky, at his Mar-a-Lago estate, President Trump said early Sunday that he made “a lot of progress” in talks with Ukraine and Russia, and that they were getting “closer” to settling the status of the disputed Donbas territory, but that it remained challenging.

“It’s unresolved, but it’s getting a lot closer. That’s a very tough issue, but one that I think will get resolved,” Trump told reporters in response to a question about the Donbas..

Asked if Putin was committed to peace despite the attacks, Trump said:

“He’s very serious.”

“I can say that I believe Ukraine has made some very strong attacks also, and I don’t say that negatively. I think you probably have to,” Trump said outside his estate.

Speaking next to Zelensky, who stood a step below him at the entrance in front of waiting cameras, Trump said that an emerging agreement would also be good for Ukraine.

“There will be a security agreement. It’ll be a strong agreement,” Trump said.

“And the European nations are very much involved in that. They’ll be very much involved in protection, et cetera,” he said.

Zelenskiy said the peace framework is “90% agreed” and that “US-Ukraine security guarantees” are “100% agreed”, with the military dimension also “100% agreed”.

Trump said he has offered to address Ukraine’s parliament to push the latest peace plan forward, saying “I’m not sure that it would be really necessary, but if it would help save 25,000 lives a month, or whatever it may be, I would certainly be willing to do that.”

Trump said a deal is “very close,” and that he and Zelensky plan to speak again over the coming weeks, with Trump also saying he could envision a trilateral meeting with Zelensky and Putin.

*  *  *

Just ahead of President Zelensky arriving in Florida where he hopes that talks with President Trump on the US-proposed Ukraine peace plan can achieve something favorable for Ukrainians, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov once again blasted European leadership as the main obstacle to peace. Trump has at the same time noted he held a Sunday call with President Putin.

“After the change of administration in the U.S., Europe and the European Union have become the main obstacle to peace,” Lavrov told TASS. “They are making no secret of their plans to prepare for war with Russia,” he continued, and underscored that the ambitions of European politicians are “literally blinding them.”

“Not only do they not care about Ukrainians, but they also don’t seem to care about their own population,” he added.

However, he did also say that Moscow plans to continue its “engagement with American negotiators” and “address the root causes of the conflict.”

Just the day prior, starting Saturday morning,  Russia carried out one of the biggest attacks on the Ukrainian capital in months, involving powerful Kinzhal missiles along with over 500 drones. Kiev was pounded, and several buildings were on fire.

Zelensky has in the meantime been seeking as much leverage from the European corner as possible, before getting face to face with Trump. Russia demands territorial concessions, but Zelensky seems only willing to talk about a temporary freeze to the war, and not necessarily the kind of full, permanent political recognition of Russia’s hold over most of the Donbass.

Ahead of the Mar-a-Lago meeting, Zelensky commented that his capital is on fire as winter temperatures freeze:

The meeting, to be hosted by Trump at his Mar-a-Lago residence at 1:00 p.m. (18:00 GMT) according to the White House, will be their first in-person encounter since October, when the U.S. president refused to grant Zelensky’s request for long-range Tomahawk missiles.

Zelensky said during a stopover in Canada on Saturday he hoped the talks would be “very constructive,” adding that Russian leader Vladimir Putin had shown his hand with the latest assault on the Ukrainian capital.

“This attack is again Russia’s answer [to] our peace efforts. And this really showed that Putin doesn’t want peace,” he said.

Things aren’t looking ideal for a finalized peace plan, also given that Zelensky during a Christmas Day message essentially wished for Putin’s death. 

Zelensky will push for NATO ‘Article 5-style’ security guarantees for Ukraine in his Sunday meeting with Trump:

Zelensky said the US has proposed 15-year security guarantees for Ukraine as part of the peace plan.

In his view, Ukraine needs guarantees for a longer period and added that he would consider it a major success if Trump agrees during their meeting at Mar-a-Lago this Sunday. pic.twitter.com/ZYI1oeYGY9

— KyivPost (@KyivPost) December 26, 2025

As the The Hill reviews of the message:

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky acknowledged in his Christmas Eve message that many Ukrainians want to see Russian President Vladimir Putin dead.

“‘May he perish,’ each of us may think to ourselves,” Zelensky said in the broadcast. “But when we turn to God, of course, we ask for something greater.”

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov responded soon after the message by blasting it as “uncultured, embittered, and coming from a seemingly unhinged person” – while further questioning whether “he’s capable of making any rational decisions.”

PUTIN UNPLUGGED.

Pay VERY close attention. pic.twitter.com/ExFH5V3NHP

— Pepe Escobar (@RealPepeEscobar) December 28, 2025

This latter reference to his decision-making ability is another card Moscow might play if the US and Ukrainian sides come out of the Florida meetings with a less than optimal peace deal. President Putin has long said that because Zelensky canceled elections, he has no legal mandate, and is thus ‘illegitimate’ and lacks authority to sign a binding peace settlement.

Via InternationalMan.com,

International Man: What do you see as the single most important thing that people should prepare for in 2026?

Doug Casey: Strauss and Howe asked that question in their book, The Fourth Turning. We’re at a major turning point in the U.S.

I’ve felt for years that the U.S. was heading toward something like a civil war. It could be as serious as the unpleasantness of the 1860s, just different. The red people and the blue people in the U.S. really dislike each other; they can’t even talk to each other. When things get to that stage, things are typically solved by force; I expect that’s what’s going to happen. Very likely during the next three years, while Trump is still in office. He’s the perfect catalyst.

It’s going to be exacerbated by the long-term migration trends. If we look 100 years down the road, it’s pretty clear that with modern travel and communications technologies, the migration of people from poor countries to rich countries all around the world will accelerate. Eventually, the U.S. won’t even exist in its present form. Of course, that’s true of every country. The colors of the map on the wall have been running since Day One.

I hope a catastrophic upset doesn’t happen in the near future for any number of reasons. For one, it won’t be any fun. For another, I’m a huge fan of traditional America. It was a unique institution in world history—the only country ever founded on the concepts of free thought, free markets, and individualism. A civil war—regardless of what form it takes—would likely overturn those things.

While I hope things mellow out, hope isn’t the best foundation for making plans.

International Man: Geopolitically, tensions continue to build across Europe, the Middle East, and East Asia.

Where do you expect the major flashpoints to emerge in 2026?

Doug Casey: The politicians who run Europe are uniformly despicable non-entities, from Ursula von der Leyen, She-Wolf of the EU, on down. One proof of that statement is that I could be prosecuted just for saying so in much of Europe. They’re soulless bureaucrats who stand for nothing but statism and collectivism. They’re driving Europe to actively rearm, doubling military budgets, reinstituting the draft, and talking about the necessity of war with Russia. I suspect they’ll get their war; I just hope it doesn’t go nuclear or biological. Odd, in that it’s over the Ukraine, the most backward and corrupt country on the continent. Perverse, in that it was never even a country until Lenin created it in 1923.

But that’s not all. The euro, an Esperanto currency, the “Who owes you nothing?” of fiat currencies, is a dead duck. All of the EU’s member countries are bankrupt welfare states. In fact, the European Union itself is going to break up. What’s good for individual countries is totally at odds with what the 80,000—and that’s an accurate number—EU employees in Brussels want to impose. NATO, which should have been disbanded when the USSR collapsed, will also disappear. Europe will, best case, become a petting zoo for Chinese tourists and a luxury resort for Third World migrants.

The Middle East? While Trump is in office, we might as well adopt Israel as the 51st state. That won’t go down well with the world’s two billion Muhammadans. Don’t confuse the friendly relations of Washington with the governments of Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and others among the 55 Muslim countries with political stability. Most are economic basket cases and extremely unstable.

East Asia? It’s perfectly irrational for China to attack Taiwan. The result would be widespread destruction on both sides—even if the US and/or Japan didn’t join the party. But governments do irrational things, unpredictably. What will happen with China’s claims on the East and South China Seas? It should be between them and six of their maritime neighbors. But the US could turn a regional border dispute into WW3.

But the unexpected flashpoint, I think, is going to be Africa. Over the last 60 years, the 55 African states (that’s only an approximate number since we don’t know how places like Libya, Western Sahara, Somaliland, or Darfur will wind up) have developed significant armies, aided by weapons and training from Europe and the US. They survive on the export of raw materials (causes of perpetual conflict) and aid from Europe and the U.S. (which is likely to evaporate). All of them (like almost everywhere in the Middle East and Central Asia) are artificial constructs with arbitrary borders. They’re all unstable kleptocracies run from the presidential palace.

The question is: to what degree will Europe, or especially the U.S., or especially Trump, stick their nose into African border wars and civil wars? There will be lots of them. I think Africa is the big powderkeg that nobody’s talking about.

International Man: The U.S. domestic political situation remains combustible, with deep cultural and economic fractures.

How do you expect America’s internal divisions to evolve in 2026 as we approach the midterms?

Doug Casey: Trends in motion tend to stay in motion. Despite the fact that corporations, the entertainment industry, academia, and the media seem to be backing away from truly insane levels of wokeism, the issue is in doubt. The trend toward Wokeism has built momentum for decades, and the country’s been indoctrinated with it for generations. It’s not going away overnight.

Trump is purposefully and overtly polarizing. As I discussed last week (link), although he may see himself as Cincinnatus, he’s more like Caesar. He’ll keep stirring things up, if only because he knows what his adversaries will do to him when he’s out of office. While most sensible people love his antiwokeism, most of his economic and international interventionism will backfire—bigly. I suspect he’ll lose the midterms, and the Dems in the House will impeach him again. Will they succeed in the Senate this time? The natives will get restless no matter what.

International Man: With Trump poised to replace Fed Chair Powell, he will exert a stronger influence over central bank policy. What do you expect the monetary environment of 2026 to look like?

Doug Casey: The dollar will approach its intrinsic value as Trump and the Fed create a trillion more of them. It’s a formula for chaos.

Trump is a big believer in mercantilist-style economics, which holds that the US must export more than it imports. I think he’ll try to force that issue with foreign exchange controls of some type, creating yet more distortions.

You want to exit the dollar, own precious metals, avoid the stock market and bond markets, and get your money out of the U.S. None of this is a formula for domestic tranquility, either in 2026, 2027, 2028, or beyond. And I’m assuming there will be a normal election in 2028, which is not a very safe assumption.

International Man: Investors are torn between chasing the current market bubble and preparing for a potential financial reckoning.

Where do you think the biggest risks and opportunities will be in 2026, and which asset classes are positioned to benefit most from the turbulence ahead?

Doug Casey: There’s no question about the fact that most of Trump’s business success has been due to borrowing. Leverage, low interest rates, and inflation made the man.

Trump’s history and incorrect understanding of economics tell me that the Fed will buy and monetize more government debt than ever, doing everything they can to artificially depress interest rates. For the short run, that could argue for the stock market going higher in 2026. But it’s a high-risk bet. Do you feel lucky?

With gold over $4,000 and silver over $60, they’re probably where they “should” be relative to other things. But as unstable as the world is, and because of their unique advantages, they’re going higher. The smart thing is to speculate on the shares of miners; they’re really cheap, and neither the public nor the institutions even know they exist, for reasons I’ve discussed in the past. All-in sustaining costs of producing gold is about $1,500 an ounce. It’s not hard to do the math.

In the last 50 years, we’ve had five 10-to-1 mining bull markets. I think we’re about to experience one more. A big one. Many of the smaller stocks have already gone three or four to one. Nobody cares… which is good.

In addition, you should be long commodities generally. Grains are basically selling at around the cost of production. As are oil, gas, coal, and uranium. Commodities are very under-owned. Buying ETFs in any or all of these things is a set-and-forget allocation of capital for at least the next couple of years.

*  *  *

2026 points to a clear inflection point—marked by rising political division, global instability, and mounting monetary risk. The pressures Doug describes are converging faster than most investors expect. But this conversation only scratches the surface. In a new free special report, Doug Casey’s Top 7 Predictions, Doug lays out the key trends he believes will shape the years ahead—and what they mean for your wealth, freedom, and financial security. Click here to get it now.

With New Year’s Eve just days away, a newly released U.S. government threat assessment cited by New York local outlet ABC 7 NY warns that lone wolves and small terror cells may seek to target special events in Times Square during the holiday celebrations.

“Lone offenders remain a particular concern due to their frequent ability to avoid detection until operational,” according to a threat assessment compiled by the Federal Bureau of Investigation and the Department of Homeland Security.

The memo warned, “al-Qa’ida and ISIS, and their supporters, continue to demonstrate an interest in targeting special events in the Homeland, as well as U.S. officials and other perceived enemies.”

The assessment said New York remains an “aspirational target,” and described the Times Square celebration as an “opportunity for obstruction and violence” due to its high attendance and global audience.

The New York City Police Department has been advised to remain alert for potential vehicle-ramming attacks.

Meanwhile, a separate threat assessment for Chicago’s New Year’s Eve fireworks celebration at Navy Pier warns that foreign terrorists and domestic extremists could attempt vehicle-ramming attacks or use drones.

In both threat assessments, no specific or credible threats were identified.

Earlier this month, the FBI foiled a far-left, pro-Palestine, anti-government, and anti-capitalist group known as the Turtle Island Liberation Front, which was allegedly planning to carry out bombings against multiple targets in California beginning on New Year’s Eve.

This year, incidents of radical-left violence have escalated to a level that even deep-state publications like The Atlantic were no longer able to ignore…

Beyond Marxist-aligned nonprofits and far-left groups such as Antifa, recent terrorist attacks in Australia, Christmas market attacks in Europe, and the attack on National Guard troops near the White House have raised concerns that the West has been deeply compromised by mass migration and left-wing nation-killing policies.

It’s past time @DHSgov stops playing pretend and finally raises the terrorism threat level in this country. We have more than 10,000 Islamist terrorists on our soil, and they cannot keep looking the other way. They don’t get to pad their stats by slapping the terrorist label on…

— Sarah Adams (@TPASarah) November 27, 2025

Sarah Adams has been warning about this threat for years… 

Authored by Aaron Gifford via The Epoch Times,

The U.S. Department of Education has so far denied requests from more than 300,000 existing student loan recipients seeking new repayment terms, according to documents filed in a federal court earlier this month.

The Dec. 15 status report in the American Federation of Teachers’ ongoing lawsuit against the federal government, filed in the District of Columbia earlier this year, said President Donald Trump’s administration rejected 327,955 applications from borrowers who sought “the lowest monthly payment possible.”

More than 800,000 applications for income-driven repayment plans, which would result in lower monthly payments, are pending, according to court papers.

The Trump administration is required to provide these status reports under an Oct. 17 agreement between the two sides in this case that stipulates the Department of Education will continue to process applications for repayment plans based on income, even though Trump has ended President Joe Biden’s far-reaching student loan forgiveness initiatives.

The lawsuit alleges that the president did not have the authority to disrupt existing federal programs such as the Income-Based Repayment plan, as well as Income-Contingent Repayment, Pay as You Earn, and Public Service Loan Forgiveness.

The Dec. 15 status report said the Trump administration did not disclose the total number of rejected applications in the previous required reporting period due to “logistical issues related to the government shutdown in October-November.”

Earlier this week, the Department of Education confirmed that it will soon begin garnishing wages from borrowers who have defaulted on their loans.

Students typically go into default if a payment hasn’t been made in 270 days, according to the Federal Student Aid website.

Under federal law, loan holders can order employers to withhold 15 percent of the borrower’s pay without taking them to court until the loan is paid back. Those who receive the notices have the right to a formal hearing or the chance to negotiate other terms with the Department of Education, according to the website.

The total debt carried by 43 million student loan borrowers currently totals about $1.62 trillion. Biden attempted to forgive hundreds of billions of dollars in delinquent debt to more than 5 million student borrowers. A federal court ruled the move unconstitutional because it wasn’t approved by Congress. Trump also capped maximum loan amounts for undergraduate, graduate, and post-graduate students.

“The Trump Administration is righting this wrong and bringing an end to this deceptive scheme. The law is clear: if you take out a loan, you must pay it back,” Under Secretary of Education Nicholas Kent said in a Dec. 9 statement, adding that American taxpayers “will no longer be forced to serve as collateral for illegal and irresponsible student loan policies.”

Melissa Byrne, We The 45 Million, joins student loan borrowers to urge President Joe Biden to use “Plan B” to cancel student debt immediately at a rally outside the Supreme Court of the United States in Washington on June 30, 2023. Paul Morigi/Getty Images for We The 45 Million

The Protect Borrowers student loan advocacy organization, which opposes the Trump administration’s policies, criticized the decision to garnish wages and deny income-driven repayment applications en masse as “cruel, unnecessary, and irresponsible.”

“As millions of borrowers sit on the precipice of default, this administration is using its self-inflicted limited resources to seize borrowers’ wages instead of defending borrowers’ rights to affordable payments,” Persis Yu, Protect Borrowers deputy executive director, said in a Dec. 23 news release.

The Epoch Times has reached out to the Department of Education.