A dramatic video surfaced on X overnight showing what appears to be an attempted ramming attack by a deranged driver in a U-Haul truck at a military checkpoint at Coast Guard Base Alameda in California.

KPIX photojournalist Rick Villaroman captured the moment when a man dressed in all black, wearing safety glasses and a respirator mask…

… backed the box truck up to the military checkpoint, then floored it, only to be met with a hail of gunfire by base police, causing him to retreat in the opposite direction.

#BREAKING: Video from KPIX photojournalist Rick Villaroman shows a U-Haul driver backing up toward a line of officers outside US Coast Guard base Alameda before officers opened fire. This was hours after almost all protesters dispersed. Awaiting an update from police @KPIXtv pic.twitter.com/UPrc3CDT3l

— Sara Donchey (@SaraDonchey) October 24, 2025

A Coast Guard spokesperson said the U-Haul truck “was driving erratically and attempting to back into Coast Guard Base Alameda” at around 10 p.m. Thursday.

Officers at the entrance “discharged several rounds of live fire” after the masked driver ignored “multiple verbal commands” to stop and then proceeded to back in toward the base’s entrance, according to the spokesperson. 

“When the vehicle’s actions posed a direct threat to the safety of Coast Guard and security personnel, law enforcement officers discharged several rounds of live fire,” the spokesperson concluded. 

Earlier, anti-ICE agitators blocked the entrance to the base. This appears to be the next staging area of protests by the Democratic Party’s activist network, targeting what seems to be the next major federal deportation operation of criminal illegal aliens.

HAPPENING NOW: Protesters in standoff with law enforcement at Coast Guard Island in Alameda, Calif.

Border Patrol agents have been arriving there to assist in the federal immigration crackdown. pic.twitter.com/vC5OZr06a6

— Breaking911 (@Breaking911) October 23, 2025

Some highlights from the ground as we monitored the protests and action outside the Alameda Coast Guard Island where they housed US Customs and Border Patrol and ICE agents inside. In the afternoon, California Highway Patrol showed up with heavy riot gear. @MotherJones pic.twitter.com/TvMt9V3kTQ

— Dani (@DaniellaJ_) October 24, 2025

Protesters and vehicles blocked the entrance to Coast Guard Base Alameda shortly after a caravan of U.S. Customs and Border Protection personnel arrived on Thursday. The CHP called unlawful assembly and moved to disperse the crowds in the afternoon. Powerful photos show what the… pic.twitter.com/GpvdEpJYwF

— ABC7 News (@abc7newsbayarea) October 23, 2025

Getting tense. 

Aaron Gifford via The Epoch Times,

Two years after the U.S. Supreme Court decision prohibiting racial preference in higher education admissions, the nation’s oldest university is reporting a decline in undergraduate black student enrollment.

Harvard University, in a profile of the Class of 2029 released today, noted that black American students make up 11.5 percent of the freshman class. That’s a decrease of 2.5 percent from last year, 2.6 percent from 2023, and 5.1 percent from 2020, according to undergraduate data released by the school each year.

In 2023, the Supreme Court sided with plaintiffs, Students for Fair Admissions, which sued Harvard on the grounds that the university denied applicants of Asian descent because that group overrepresented the undergraduate student body, violating Civil Rights laws.

Asian students, meanwhile, make up 41 percent of Harvard’s undergraduate Class of 2029, up from 37 percent in last year’s freshman class and 29.8 percent in 2023.

“The class of 2029 was drawn from big cities and small towns, suburbs, and farms; and from nations around the world,” William Fitzsimmons, Harvard’s dean of admissions and financial aid, said in the Oct. 23 announcement on the university website.

“No matter where they’re from and what their personal circumstance might be, they were admitted to Harvard because they share the extraordinary potential to change the world.”

According to The Harvard Gazette, the class of 2029 also includes 11 percent self-identified Hispanic or Latino and nearly 2 percent Native American, Native Hawaiian, or Pacific Islander.

Students for Fair Admissions also recently took action against the U.S. service academies, reaching a settlement with the Department of Defense to end race-based admissions at West Point and the Air Force Academy, and filing a lawsuit against the Coast Guard Academy over racial preferences in its commissioning program, according to the organization’s website.

President Donald Trump issued executive orders affirming Civil Rights laws that prohibit racial preferences in university hiring and student admissions and, following investigations, sanctioned Harvard and several other elite institutions.

In August, he issued a directive requiring colleges and universities to publicize acceptance rates, enrollment figures, and average applicant grade point averages and SAT (Scholastic Aptitude Test) scores by race and gender.

In recent years, many competitive higher education institutions have eliminated SAT requirements and instead mandated personal statements or essays from student applicants, raising concerns that they are being used to ideologically screen applicants for entry.

Matthew Beienburg, education policy director at the Goldwater Institute, said those changes are an attempt to preserve racial preferences in admissions.

“The left believes standardized testing promotes racial inequality,” he previously told The Epoch Times. “They pushed [for substituting tests with personal essays] very hard.”

Harvard’s Class of 2029 also noted that 2,003 undergraduate applicants out of 47,893 applicants were accepted, and that nearly half of the 1,675 first-year students won’t be required to pay tuition.

International students make up 15 percent of the freshman class, which also represents 92 nations and all 50 states, the profile report stated.

Update (1454ET):

Ontario Premier Doug Ford has announced that the $75 million informational campaign targeting Americans will pause on Monday. This means the television commercials in which Canada attempted to persuade Americans on trade policy will come to an end.

America’s neighbors to the north screwed around and found out the consequences late Thursday night, when President Trump terminated all trade negotiations in response to the ads attacking U.S. tariffs.

Late Friday afternoon, Ford took to X and wrote:

Our intention was always to initiate a conversation about the kind of economy that Americans want to build and the impact of tariffs on workers and businesses. We’ve achieved our goal, having reached U.S. audiences at the highest levels. I’ve directed my team to keep putting our message in front of Americans over the weekend so that we can air our commercial during the first two World Series games.

In speaking with Prime Minister Carney, Ontario will pause its U.S. advertising campaign effective Monday so that trade talks can resume.

The people elected our government to protect Ontario, our workers, businesses, families and communities. That’s exactly what I’m doing. Like I said earlier today: Canada and the U.S. are neighbors, friends and allies. We’re so much stronger when we work together. Let’s work together to build Fortress Am-Can and make our two countries stronger, more prosperous and more secure.

Our intention was always to initiate a conversation about the kind of economy that Americans want to build and the impact of tariffs on workers and businesses. We’ve achieved our goal, having reached U.S. audiences at the highest levels. I’ve directed my team to keep putting our…

— Doug Ford (@fordnation) October 24, 2025

Canada bends the knee.

Not a good look for globalist Carney.

*  *  * GET IN ON BLADE OF THE MONTH… CLICK BELOW

President Trump has terminated all trade talks with Canada amid an information war waged by the Ontario provincial government, which has criticized U.S. tariffs. Canada’s propaganda ad campaign has appeared on Newsmax and Bloomberg, with additional placements scheduled for Fox News, Fox Sports, NBC, CBS, CNBC, ESPN, ABC, and local channels.

The advertisement uses audio from former President Ronald Reagan to remind Americans of the negative consequences of tariffs. 

“High tariffs inevitably lead to retaliation by foreign countries and the triggering of fierce trade wars,” Reagan said, adding, “Then the worst happens: Markets shrink and collapse, businesses and industries shut down, and millions of people lose their jobs.”

Late Thursday night, President Trump wrote on Truth Social, “The Ronald Reagan Foundation has just announced that Canada has fraudulently used an advertisement, which is FAKE, featuring Ronald Reagan speaking negatively about Tariffs.”

“The ad was for $75,000,000. They only did this to interfere with the decision of the U.S. Supreme Court, and other courts. TARIFFS ARE VERY IMPORTANT TO THE NATIONAL SECURITY, AND ECONOMY, OF THE U.S.A. Based on their egregious behavior, ALL TRADE NEGOTIATIONS WITH CANADA ARE HEREBY TERMINATED,” Trump emphasized. 

Before Trump’s Truth Social post, on X, the Ronald Reagan Foundation blasted the “ad campaign using selective audio and video of President Ronald Reagan delivering his “Radio Address to the Nation on Free and Fair Trade,” dated April 25, 1987,” adding, “The ad misrepresents the Presidential Radio Address, and the Government of Ontario did not seek nor receive permission to use and edit the remarks.” 

Listen to President Reagan’s unedited remarks here: https://t.co/1gQUcbR4eZ pic.twitter.com/iqmjSuypp0

— Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation & Institute (@RonaldReagan) October 24, 2025

In markets, UBS analyst Jason Poh told clients that “USDCAD has a knee-jerk jump, 30+ pips” after Trump announced all trade talks were terminated. 

Foreign governments attempting to shape U.S. trade policy or U.S. politics is not new, but this was certainly a bold move by Canada during trade talks.

. . . 

The US military’s strikes on alleged drug boats near Venezuela are growing, and War Secretary Pete Hegseth has just announced another one Friday morning, which marks the third such attack this week, after two boats were destroyed on the Pacific side of Latin America earlier this week.

“Overnight, at the direction of President Trump, the Department of War carried out a lethal kinetic strike on a vessel operated by Tren de Aragua (TdA), a Designated Terrorist Organization (DTO), trafficking narcotics in the Caribbean Sea,” Hegseth announced on social media. He said that “all six terrorists” were killed and no American forces were harmed in the new operation. This appears to be at least the ninth such attack – and at least third in less than a week.

Big questions have persisted over just how the US knows it is attacking drug smuggling boats, and not mere fishing vessels. Journalists have been turning up the pressure on the White House to provide evidence.

Hegseth tried to preempt such inquiries in his Friday statement, which continued, “The vessel was known by our intelligence to be involved in illicit narcotics smuggling, was transiting along a known narco-trafficking route, and carrying narcotics.”

Interestingly, the Pentagon chief noted it was the first strike conducted at night since the anti-Venezuela and anti-drug operations started.

He then reiterated the following message: “If you are a narco-terrorist smuggling drugs in our hemisphere, we will treat you like we treat Al-Qaeda. Day or NIGHT, we will map your networks, track your people, hunt you down, and kill you.”

President Trump in fielding questions from reporters the day before talked about just ‘killing’ drug smugglers and that no declaration of war or any kind of legal process for that matter is needed…

“I’m not going to necessarily ask for a declaration of war,” he said. “I think we’re just doing to kill people that are bringing drugs into our country. Okay? We’re going to kill them, you know, they’re going to be like, dead.”

JUST IN: President Trump fires back after reporter asks him why he doesn’t get approval from Congress for taking out narco-terrorists.

Reporter: Why not just ask for a declaration of war?

Trump: I think we’re just going to kill people that are bringing drugs into our country.… pic.twitter.com/N1owgnvt6V

— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) October 23, 2025

Geopolitical commentator Arnaud Bertrand has pointed out that Trump just honestly and openly reveals the face of US Empire:

People are in shock over this but Trump, as per his habit, is only putting in blunt terms what all US presidents have been doing for decades. “Nobel Peace Prize Obama” is the one who industrialized extrajudicial killings, officially ordering 540 drone strikes during his presidency (https://cfr.org/blog/obamas-final-drone-strike-data), so 1 to 2 a week on average, killing thousands of people with no due process whatsoever.

Indeed, Obama even one time killed a 16-year old American citizen and resident of Colorado by drone strike in Yemen, and he and his press secretary merely shrugged it off.

Still, Trump has some serious questions to answer, and a handful of Congressmen including Sen. Rand Paul try to reel in these latest foreign adventures off Latin America.

The ongoing trade war between the US and Canada barely registers on the radar for most of the American public, largely because it doesn’t affect their wallets in any significant way.  However, on the Canadian side of the border, the economic conflict dominates headlines and discussion.  Average Canadians face significant uncertainty and Canada’s export markets are teetering on the brink of crisis. 

The lesson here?  Perhaps it’s a bad idea to engage in brinkmanship with the US when the US buys 76% of your exports?  Canada’s exports represent 33% of their total annual GDP, while US exports are only 10% of GDP.  That is to say, Canada needs the US far more than the US needs Canada.  The numbers are clear as day.

The Trump Administration’s recent announcement that all trade negotiations with Canada have been shut down requires some analysis of future consequences.  The trigger for the cancellation was a Canadian ad aimed at US conservatives featuring excerpts of a Ronald Reagan speech with criticisms on tariffs. 

According to the Ronald Reagan Foundation, the ad uses selective editing to present a false picture of Reagan’s position on trade protections.  It is true that Reagan was generally a proponent of globalization, but he also instituted a number of protectionist policies during his two terms as US President.  Reagan pressured Japanese car makers to adopt import restraints on automobiles, which remained in effect until 1985.  Japan was told that if they did not accept the restraints, Congress would pass harsher measures.

Additionally, Reagan imposed protectionist measures on textiles, specialty steel, Canadian wood products, Italian pasta, motorcycles, and even mushrooms during his two terms. In 1986, Reagan threatened to impose a 200 percent tariff on Spain for its restrictions on U.S. grain imports.

That said, Reagan’s affinity for globalism also helped to accelerate the eventual collapse of US manufacturing jobs, which were ultimately outsourced to third world countries with cheap labor sources.  The American middle class has been in steep decline ever since globalist policies were instituted. 

Canada’s political advertisement is an attempt to exploit conservative nostalgia for the Reagan era while deliberately ignoring the nuances of his trade views.  Not to mention, it shows that the Canadian government has no intention of addressing the parasitic relationship imposed on Americans through NAFTA and the USMCA.  Numerous American industries have been crushed in the wake of these trade agreements. 

Trump’s fury over Canada’s propaganda efforts is understandable, because it shows they would rather try to manipulate the American electorate rather than engage in sincere negotiations.  This is a mistake on their part; manufacturing is now fleeing Canada.

Approximately 185,000 jobs have vanished in Canada since the beginning of the trade war.  The majority of these jobs have come from the manufacturing sector.  Companies shifting jobs away from Canada and to the US include:  Stellantis, General Motors, and multiple steel producers.  If tariffs continue, the country is projected to lose another 140,000 jobs by the end of 2025. 

Canada’s GDP for 2025 is estimated to decline 2.6% to rest at 0.4%, equating to $78 billion in lost economic output.  Prices also continue to skyrocket on basic necessities including food and housing. 

Prime Minister Mark Carney has announced a plan to shift reliance on US markets and expand exports to other trading partners, but this plan is naive.  The US represents 30% of all global consumer markets, and Canada has enjoyed the good fortune of sharing a border with the biggest single buyer of exports in the world.  Meaning, the cost of moving goods is minimal, which maximizes profits for companies based in Canada.  Trying to recreate these conditions with alternative buyers overseas is impossible.

Long term option for Canada include moving away from manufacturing and focusing on natural resources, which they have in abundance.  Again, this still requires access to the US for any substantial exports, not to mention investments for exploration.  As of 2023, the U.S. had a total FDI position of $452 billion in Canada across all sectors. This represents a significant portion of all foreign investment in the country. 

Carney’s apparent arrogance on trade is perhaps driven by his progressive and globalist ideology, and as we have seen time and time again with the far-left, they don’t know how to admit they’re in over their heads.  They only double down.  Therefore, it’s likely that Carney will continue to blunder through negotiations with the US and lead Canada into economic disaster.  

U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer announced moments ago that the U.S. has initiated a Section 301 investigation into China’s implementation of the Phase One trade deal, a deal that has been out of public focus since President Trump’s first term. This development comes less than one week before Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are scheduled to meet on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit to ease trade tensions. The flurry of recent trade-related headlines, from rare earths to soybeans to jet engines, suggests that both economic superpowers are attempting to build leverage ahead of trade talks.

“President Trump made history in his first term when he stood up for the American worker and brokered the Phase One Agreement, establishing a more fair and reciprocal trade relationship with China,” Ambassador Greer stated.

Greer wrote in a statement, adding, “The initiation of this investigation underscores the Trump Administration’s resolve to hold China to its Phase One Agreement commitments, protect American farmers, ranchers, workers, and innovators, and establish a more reciprocal trade relationship with China for the benefit of the American people.”

USTR provided additional context on the Phase One trade deal reached in December 2019, which required China to implement structural reforms in areas such as intellectual property, technology transfer, agriculture, and financial services, and to significantly increase purchases of U.S. goods and services. Beijing’s shift toward sourcing agricultural products from the U.S. to Brazil has inflicted pain across America’s Midwest farm belt, and is likely one key reason this probe was opened. 

Five years after the agreement was signed, China has not fulfilled its commitments, particularly regarding non-tariff barriers, market access, and purchase targets. Ahead of next week’s Trump-Xi meeting at APEC, Greer will investigate whether China’s failure to comply with the Phase One deal violates U.S. trade rights under Section 301.

Despite the probe, President Trump said on Thursday, “I think we’re going to come out very well and everyone’s going to be very happy.”

The Trump-Xi meeting also comes just before a trade truce between Washington and Beijing is set to expire on November 10. Trump has threatened to impose an additional 100% tariff on Chinese products on November 1 if Beijing does not ease shipments of rare earth minerals to the U.S. Trump said this week that upcoming talks with Xi will produce a “good deal” on “everything” related to trade.

Market attention now turns to any weekend statements from both sides. So far, the market reaction has been muted across equities, bonds, and FX, as a cooler CPI print in the U.S. has pushed main equity indexes to around noontime.  

General Motors Co. laid off more than 200 salaried employees on Friday, mostly at its Tech Center in Warren, Michigan, according to Bloomberg.

The cuts, announced around 7 a.m. via a Slack message, were attributed to “business conditions” rather than performance, according to people familiar with the meeting.

A GM spokesperson said the move targeted overlapping roles in design engineering, explaining, “We’re restructuring our design engineering team to strengthen our core architectural design engineering capabilities. As a result, a number of CAD execution roles have been eliminated. We recognize the efforts and accomplishments of the impacted team members, and we thank them for their contributions.”

Bloomberg writes that the job reductions are part of a broader effort to streamline operations and boost profitability amid tariffs and slower electric-vehicle sales. Earlier in the week, GM reported stronger-than-expected third-quarter earnings, driven by robust sales of high-margin trucks and SUVs.

Recall, just days ago, the automaker delivered stronger-than-expected third-quarter results and raised its 2025 outlook. The company reported adjusted EPS of $2.80 versus $2.31 expected and revenue of $48.59 billion versus $45.27 billion.

CEO Mary Barra said at the time: “Thanks to the collective efforts of our team, and our compelling vehicle portfolio, GM delivered another very good quarter of earnings and free cash flow… we are raising our full-year guidance, underscoring our confidence in the company’s trajectory.”

GM now expects $12–$13 billion in adjusted EBIT and $9.75–$10.50 in adjusted EPS for the year, both above prior forecasts. The company also lowered its expected tariff impact to between $3.5 billion and $4.5 billion, down from $4–$5 billion previously.

Barra thanked President Trump for “the important tariff updates” announced last week, which included new levies on imported trucks and parts as well as an offset for U.S.-made vehicles.

Despite EV-related headwinds—only about 40% of GM’s electric models are profitable on a production basis—CFO Paul Jacobson reaffirmed the company’s long-term commitment to electrification, saying, “We continue to believe there is a strong future for electric vehicles.” Gains in China, international markets, and GM Financial helped offset weaker North American margins, as GM focuses on restoring its regional profitability to the 8–10% range.

GM’s stronger outlook also reflects booming demand for its high-margin pickups and SUVs, which delivered the company’s best year-to-date truck and Escalade sales since 2018 and 2007, respectively, and record results for the GMC brand, according to Bloomberg. CEO Mary Barra highlighted that GM is “very well positioned as we invest to increase our already significant domestic sourcing and manufacturing footprint,” thanking President Trump for extending tariff discounts through 2030.

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news.

In a move clearly designed to help illegal aliens avoid the authorities, the Democratic Party has proposed adding an ICE tracker to its website to allow anyone to track the movements of agents.

Labelling it a “master” ICE tracker, Rep. Robert Garcia announced the plan alongside Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass.

NEW: Democrats are planning to launch a “master” ICE-tracker on their website. pic.twitter.com/aYbtH36kJF

— Fox News (@FoxNews) October 22, 2025

Less than a month ago, Apple removed an  app called ICEBlock from its App Store because it allowed users to report the locations of ICE agents ahead of raids, both putting them in danger and helping illegal aliens evade justice.

Apple acquiesced following pressure from the Justice Department after a demented leftist carried out a shooting at an ICE detention facility in Dallas. 

Attorney General Pam Bondi declared “ICEBlock is designed to put ICE agents at risk just for doing their jobs, and violence against law enforcement is an intolerable red line that cannot be crossed.”

🚨 BREAKING: Apple has finally TAKEN DOWN the ICEBlock app, which was used by leftists like the Dallas ICE shooter, to dox the location of ICE agents

Good, but this took WAY too long.

The Trump DOJ intervened, pushing Apple to make the move.

“We reached out to Apple today… pic.twitter.com/A18vZGjvkH

— Nick Sortor (@nicksortor) October 3, 2025

Now Democrats want to directly enable the exact same thing on their own website.

Acting ICE director Todd Lyons urged that the move would be akin to “giving a map to a hitman.”

🚨”LIKE GIVING A MAP TO A HITMAN.”

Acting @ICEgov Director Todd Lyons responds to Democrats’ plan to create a public tool to track I.C.E. agents.@FoxNews | @DHSgov pic.twitter.com/wu1dRg3CG7

— America’s Newsroom (@AmericaNewsroom) October 22, 2025

The Department of Homeland Security described the development as dangerous, further noting “Anyone who actively obstructs law enforcement in the performance of their sworn duties or assaults law enforcement, including U.S. citizens, will face consequences.”

ICE tracking apps and websites directly put the lives of ICE law enforcement and their families in danger.

Less than a month after a deranged gunman — who used an ICE tracking app to plan his attack — opened fire at the Dallas ICE facility, California politicians are pushing to… pic.twitter.com/a1JUWo2JuT

— Homeland Security (@DHSgov) October 22, 2025

ICE agents have repeatedly come under sustained attacks from lunatic leftists.

Of course the Democrats want this.

If an ICE agent gets killed or attacked and it’s found they used the tracker it could lead to massive legal ramifications.

— Rich Doherty (@ChiTownGrowz) October 22, 2025

Not playing politics here, but asking a serious question: How is this not a criminal act intentionally putting the lives of law-enforcement officials in danger?

— Douglas Hargett 🇺🇸 (@douglashargett) October 22, 2025

Seems unlawful and un-American, so of course Democrats concocted this evil scheme.

— JWF (@JammieWF) October 22, 2025

There is one way of countering it:

Well, I expect everyone to submit false ICE sightings and overload their network.

— Emerson Miller (@e_millertyme) October 22, 2025

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

The French blue-chip CAC 40 is lower on the session, and the spread between 10-year French and German yields has widened, signaling that the political turmoil is far from over.

On Friday, France’s Socialist Party threatened to sink Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu’s minority government as soon as next week unless the 2026 budget includes 15-20 billion euros in additional taxes. Without Socialist support in parliament, no-confidence motions would likely pass, toppling the government.

“If in the coming hours, basically until next Monday, there is no clear change to the text, there would be no margin for maneuver on the budget bill or the social security bill, so it would in reality all be over,” Socialist leader Olivier Faure stated on the 24-hour French news television channel BFM television, earlier today.

S’il n’y a pas d’évolution sur les budgets de l’État et de la Sécurité sociale pour plus de justice sociale et fiscale d’ici lundi, les socialistes voteront contre et censureront ce gouvernement.

On ne peut pas demander aux retraités, aux malades, aux jeunes, aux classes… pic.twitter.com/GK79MMXn5F

— Olivier Faure (@faureolivier) October 24, 2025

Bloomberg noted, “The threats from the Socialist party chief come as the group treads a tricky line between getting more out of Lecornu on fiscal plans while avoiding fresh elections. The ouster of yet another premier would likely result in a snap legislative vote, in which polls suggest Socialists would fare poorly.”

At the beginning of the week, UBS analyst Simon Penn told clients that Lecornu “might not make it until year-end.” With how things are going this week, he might not make it until the end of next week.

Here is what Penn told UBS clients:

French PM Lecornu Might Not Make It Until Year-End

Political advisory group Forefront isn’t convinced French Prime Minister Lecornu will remain in office until the end of the year.

His basic problem is the same one that each of his predecessors has faced – he is going to struggle to pass a budget.

The Socialists were clear last week: they were willing to lend their support to get Lecornu through confidence votes, but that didn’t mean they supported his budget proposals. Forefront noted that the first thing Lecornu will need to do is enact the suspension of pension reform. He might be able to get that through the National Assembly, but the right-leaning Senate is opposed. If it fails in the Senate, it will go to a joint committee, and since that has a center-right bias, a decision to suspend pension reform will likely hinge on a raft of other requirements. This brings it full circle – the National Assembly is unlikely to accept those.

Odds on the cryptocurrency-based prediction market Polymarket show 13% that Lecornu is out by the end of next week. About 12 hours ago, these odds were 4%. Odds for Lecornu’s ouster by the end of the year jumped from 37% to as high as 51% on Friday.

In regional bond markets, France’s 10-year yield premium over Germany widened to 81 basis points on Friday, the highest in 10 days, according to Bloomberg data. This remains below the 89 basis point peak during Lecornu’s resignation, but it indicates that markets are beginning to price in greater uncertainty ahead of next week.

Modest selling pressure on CAC 40…

And next week may bring fireworks in French politics.

With vol markets fully clenched, this morning’s much-anticipated CPI print (no matter how full of guesstimated data) is sure to prompt an initial flurry of trading activity but as we detailed in our preview, absent some major outlier, is likely to be mostly irrelevant with rate-cut expectations now fully pricing in 2 x 25bps cuts for the rest of the year.

As a reminder, this data was supposed to originally be revealed on Oct 15 and would have been indefinitely delayed had the White House not intervened with a demand that the BLS recall staff and figure out what the number is and report it today at 8:30amET.

Just as we suggested, the headline data was a miss (cooler than expected)…

CPI Preview: Likely A Miss But Mostly Irrelevant https://t.co/hEwPttKmOG

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 24, 2025

…rising 0.3% Mom (vs +0.4% exp), with the YoY print at 3.0% (below expectations of +3.1% but higher than the 2.9% YoY print in August).

Source: Bloomberg

That is the hottest YoY headline CPI since January.

Energy costs rose but Services slowed…

Source: Bloomberg

Headline CPI highlights:

• The index for gasoline rose 4.1% in September and was the largest factor in the all items monthly increase, as the index for energy rose 1.5% over the month.

  • The gasoline index increased 4.1 percent over the month.

  • The index for electricity decreased 0.5 percent over the month and the index for natural gas decreased 1.2 percent over the same period.

• The food index increased 0.2% over the month as the food at home index rose 0.3% and the food away from home index increased 0.1%

  • Four of the six major grocery store food group indexes increased in September.

  • The index for other food at home rose 0.5 percent over the month after rising 0.1 percent in August.

  • The cereals and bakery products index and the nonalcoholic beverages index both increased 0.7 percent in September

  • The dairy and related products index declined 0.5 percent in September as the cheese and related products index decreased 0.7 percent. The index for fruits and vegetables was unchanged over the month

  • The index for limited service meals rose 0.2 percent over the month while the index for full service meals was unchanged

• Other indexes with notable increases over the last year include medical care (+3.3%), household furnishings and operations (+4.1%), recreation (+3.0%), and used cars and trucks (+5.1%).

Energy Services costs and Used Car prices fell MoM (along with electricity costs – which is odd given the massive increase in demand via AI Data Center build outs) but Gasoline costs rose notably…

…something that will be erased next month as oil prices tumbled…

On an annual basis, the shelter index increased 3.6% over the last year (but continues to slow dramatically).

• Rent inflation rose 3.40% YoY in Sept, down from 3.49% in Aug and the lowest YoY increase since Dec. 2021; it was also up 0.17% MoM, the smallest monthly increase since August 2021

• Shelter inflation rose 3.58% in Sept, down from 3.63% in Aug and the lowest annual increase since Oct 2021; it was also up 0.28% MoM, down from 0.34% in Aug.

A similar pattern was seen in Core CPI data with the print rising 0.2% MoM (below expectations of +0.3%), but pulled the YoY print down to 3.0% (down from 3.1% in August), the lowest since June…

Source: Bloomberg

Core CPI highlights:

• Indexes that increased over the month include shelter, airline fares, recreation, household furnishings and operations, and apparel

• The indexes for motor vehicle insurance, used cars and trucks, and communication were among the few major indexes that decreased in September.

Core CPI details:

• The shelter index increased 0.2 percent over the month.

  • The index for owners’ equivalent rent rose 0.1 percent in September, the smallest 1-month increase in that index since January 2021.

  • The rent index increased 0.2 percent over the month.

  • The index for lodging away from home rose 1.3 percent in September.

• The index for airline fares increased 2.7 percent over the month, after rising 5.9 percent in August.

• The recreation index rose 0.4 percent in September as did the household furnishings and operations index.

• The index for apparel rose 0.7 percent over the month and the index for personal care increased 0.4 percent.

• The new vehicles index rose 0.2 percent in September.

• The index for used cars and trucks also decreased 0.4 percent over the month and the index for communication declined 0.2 percent.

• The motor vehicle insurance index declined 0.4 percent in September, after being unchanged in August.

• The medical care index increased 0.2 percent over the month, after declining 0.2 percent in August.

• The index for hospital services increased 0.3 percent over the month, as did the index for prescription drugs.

• The dental services index decreased 0.6 percent in September and the physicians’ services index declined 0.1 percent.

Core Services costs declined significantly…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, SuperCore CPI (Services Ex-Shelter) also saw its YoY print slow to +3.30% (the slowest since May)…

Source: Bloomberg

Transportation Costs slowed dramatically in September…

Source: Bloomberg

On a 3m and 6m annualized basis there is no sign of the hyped-up tariff-driven inflation that the left and their establishment puppets have been screaming about for months…

Source: Bloomberg

Summing up September’s (delayed) data, Services inflation slowed to its weakest since Nov 2021 and Goods inflation was flat at +1.5% YoY…

Source: Bloomberg

There’s certainly nothing here to stop The Fed cutting rates again next week.

But we do note that given the surge in money supply, once could argue, re-inflation is coming…

By which time Trump will have a new Fed head to bully.