Back in August, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky boasted that his military no longer needed US ‘permission’ to conduct long-range strikes on Russian territory with missiles. This was given that Ukraine had been developing its own domestic designed and produced long-range missile. Zelensky at the time unveiled the ‘Flamingo’ cruise missile.

On Thursday Zelensky has announced a successful test the Flamingo, which can also be described a drone-missile capable of strike as as far as 3,000km (or over 1,860 miles) away.

Ukrainian media has touted that it is capable of delivering a nuclear tip, and that it can carry a warhead almost three times bigger than the US Tomahawk, however it is said to be less accurate in its targeting.

According to new details on the weapon by Ukrainian media: 

The first test weapons have already been fired in combat.

According to Kyiv official statements, the missiles will soon be in mass production, and by mid-2026, Ukraine will have amassed a stockpile of weapons capable of hitting practically anything within 3,000 kilometers (1,864 miles) inside Russia with a half-ton conventional explosive warhead.

The replacement for the Kh-55 cruise missiles given up by Ukraine in the 1990s (Russia actually even fired a few back at Ukraine in 2022), per statements by Ukrainian President Zelensky and his staff, is called the Flamingo missile. (During development, the paint on a test copy reportedly accidentally turned pink. The paint issue was addressed, but the nickname stuck.)

Notably, this kind of range easily brings the Moscow area within striking distance. If Kiev decides to target the Russian capital with cruise missiles – this would likely cause Putin order that Kiev get pounded even harder. 

Throughout well over three years of grinding war, the Russian military has still not directly targeted top-level government buildings in Kiev, or military and intelligence HQs there. That could all soon change.

The White House wants to see some kind of peace deal take effect before things escalate to that point – but the process is in shambles especially given Trump has this week pulled the trigger on new sanctions targeting Russian oil – and it remains that neither warring side appears in the mood for compromise. And given Russia has the clear battlefield momentum, it has little reason to back off Putin’s maximal conditions, and the goals of his ‘special military operation’.

Authored by Kimberley Hayek via The Epoch Times,

New York State’s attorney general on Wednesday called on the public to send her office photos, videos, and other documentation of federal immigration operations for review, just a day after an enforcement operation targeted street vendors in Manhattan’s Chinatown turned to chaos as protestors confronted agents.

Attorney General Letitia James said her office would comb over footage and further documentation of federal immigration operations via a “Federal Action Reporting Form,” stating that “every New Yorker has the right to live without fear or intimidation.”

James has also requested that New Yorkers submit photos or videos of Tuesday’s enforcement operation in Chinatown to her office, so that her office can determine if any laws were broken.

U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) spokesperson Tricia McLaughlin said James’s call for videos and photos “looks like obstruction of justice.”

The immigration enforcement operation took place on New York City’s Canal Street, a well-known area with a reputation for street vendors selling imitation goods, sparking resistance from city residents, many of whom were seemingly on their way home from work.

Shortly after 4 p.m. on Tuesday, federal agents began the operation, with an Associated Press reporter saying they saw dozens of agents detain a street vendor.

Protestors encircled the officers and tried to prevent their vehicles from leaving while shouting “ICE out of New York” and calling on other pedestrians to join in the protest.

Agents from Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), Border Patrol, and other federal agencies then attempted to disperse the crowd. The confrontation grew, and an unknown number of federal agents retreated on foot, which was cheered on by protestors and honking cars. Federal reinforcements with long guns and tactical gear then arrived on scene.

“During this law enforcement operation, rioters who were shouting obscenities became violent and obstructed law enforcement duties, including blocking vehicles and assaulting law enforcement,” McLaughlin said.

Altogether, federal authorities said 14 people—illegal immigrants and demonstrators—were arrested in Tuesday’s operation, including illegal immigrants from Mali, Senegal, Mauritania, and Guinea. Some had prior criminal arrest histories.

Four people were arrested for allegedly assaulting law enforcement, and another for obstruction of justice, according to DHS.

McLaughlin said some of the people arrested had previously been accused of crimes, including robbery, domestic violence, assaulting law enforcement, counterfeiting, and drug offenses.

DHS said the operation was targeting the alleged sale of counterfeit goods, and ICE acting Director Todd Lyons called the action “definitely intelligence-driven.”

“It’s not random. We’re just not pulling people off the street,” he told Fox News on Wednesday.

The new movement to keep track of possible abuses by ICE officers and other federal agents is part of a broader strategy by Democrats.

Rep. Robert Garcia (D-Calif.) said on Monday that he and other Democratic colleagues would create a website to keep track of the agency’s operations, asking the public to record ICE activity.

Israel’s parliament has given initial approval to a controversial bill that would extend Israeli sovereignty over the occupied West Bank, widely viewed as tantamount to full Israeli annexation of the Palestinian territory, in a move widely condemned internationally and even receiving strong pushback from the United States.

The measure narrowly passed its preliminary reading on Tuesday, with 25 lawmakers in favor and 24 opposed in the 120-seat Knesset. The bill will now move to the Knesset’s Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee for further debate.

A parliamentary statement said the proposal seeks “to apply the sovereignty of the State of Israel to the territories of Judea and Samaria (West Bank).”

The timing of the vote was interesting and provocative, as it took place during the visit of Vice President JD Vance to Israel, where he discussed Gaza ceasefire as well as the coordination center staffed by US troops and allies, responsible for overseeing Gaza’s transition away from Hamas. Vance didn’t take kindly to what happened in the Knesset, given the timing seemed intentional.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio was also in Israel this week, and before departing the country Wednesday he laid out that the annexation bill is “not something we’d be supportive of.”

“We think it’s even threatening to the peace deal,” Rubio said, after Trump has frequently touted bringing peace to the Middle East. “We think it might be counterproductive.”

Prime Minister Netanyahu is said to not be on board with advancing a sovereignty agenda, and it’s largely driven by hardline settler-connected politicians.

Likud called the votes “another provocation by the opposition aimed at damaging our relations with the United States” in a fresh statement.

“True sovereignty will be achieved not through a showy law for the record, but through proper work on the ground,” it said.

But it was Vance’s response that was most heated and marked a full-throated denunciation of the “stupid political stunt” which was an “insult”. But he also said it may have merely been “symbolic” but it was “weird” to do especially while he was still in the country…

JD Vance on the Judea and Samaria sovereignty vote in the Knesset yesterday:

“It was a very stupid political stunt, and I personally take some insult to it… The West Bank is not gonna be annexed by Israel.” pic.twitter.com/hyWxm9z2EL

— Amit Segal (@AmitSegal) October 23, 2025

“The West Bank will not be annexed by Israel” and “we certainly weren’t happy about it” – Vance said, emphasizing the policy of the Trump administration. 

Vance is favored to be the next Republican president after Trump, and he’s likely to remember this frustrating and perhaps disrespectful moment, also at a time the Right in American politics and discourse is increasingly divided on policy toward Israel.

Authored by Ron Paul via The Ron Paul Institute,

“What do you expect when you sue the president?”

Hearing that comment, some people may guess the comment was made by someone addressing one of President Trump’s political opponents who has been targeted for federal prosecution.

That quote, though, is much older.

It is from an IRS agent addressing officials of a conservative organization that was being audited during Bill Clinton’s presidency.

This illustrates that the use of federal agencies to punish presidents’ enemies did not start with President Trump.

The administration of President Franklin Delano Roosevelt used tax investigations against political opponents.

Targeted individuals included publishers of newspapers that were highly critical of Roosevelt’s domestic and foreign policies.

President John F. Kennedy used the IRS and the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) to drive his conservative critics off the radio.

President Lyndon Johnson also used the IRS and the FCC to silence conservative critics.

One tool that was used to silence conservatives was to accuse broadcasters of violating the “fairness doctrine” by favoring conservative commentators.

President Richard Nixon used the IRS to target political enemies.

The Nixon administration also threatened television and radio companies with revocation of their broadcast licenses unless they provided favorable coverage of the administration.

During the Clinton administration, the IRS not only targeted conservative and libertarian organizations it audited Paula Jones after she sued President Clinton for sexual harassment.

During the George W. Bush years, the IRS targeted organizations critical of the Iraq War. When Barack Obama assumed the presidency, the tax agency turned its attention back to conservative and libertarian groups, with a focus on organizations associated with the Tea Party.

The Department of Homeland Security also issued a warning that those with pro-liberty bumper stickers — including supporting the Libertarian Party or my presidential campaign — might be violent extremists.

During the Biden administration, many Americans received harsh sentences for being present at the Capitol on January 6 even if they did not commit any violent acts.

Federal agencies can also target presidents’ political enemies without a presidential order to do so being issued. Some ambitious and unscrupulous individuals will target a president’s enemies believing that this is an effective way to curry favor with the president or high-level administration officials.

Others will use the power of the government against the president’s political enemies or those involved with political movements seeking to change the direction of the government out of a belief that these people or groups constitute a threat to the federal government that justifies violating constitutional rights.

This history suggests that abuse of power is an inevitable feature of the modern welfare-warfare-regulatory state. Therefore, instead of focusing just on electing the “right” president, we should focus on shrinking the size and scope of the federal government to its constitutional limitations.

This will ensure that Americans can exercise their right to criticize the government without fear of reprisal.

As Thomas Jefferson said, “in questions of power then, let no more be heard of confidence in man, but bind him down from mischief by the chains of the constitution.”

Tonight at 7 pm ET, ZeroHedge and George Gammon (of the Rebel Capitalist show) are hosting a debate over America’s mounting public debt – which now sits at over $38 trillion – and what to do about it.

Our debaters bring two sharply opposing solutions, while Gammon, a self-described anti-government capitalist, moderates this high-stakes debate over how (or whether) the U.S. can navigate its way through record public debt. 

Michael Green (Simplify Asset Management): The Keynesian-Growth Case

Green argues that persistent fiscal deficits aren’t a threat but a catalyst. In his view, government spending fuels innovation, productivity, and human progress – allowing growth to outpace obligations.

By extending credit today, America can build the wealth and technology that make tomorrow’s debt affordable. 

Key question: Can the nation truly grow its way out of debt, or is that faith misplaced in a slowing world?

Listen to Green explain the virtue of delayed economic pain (about 30 seconds from the marked timestamp):

Patrick Newman (Mises Institute): The case for Default

Newman takes the opposite view: sovereign debt isn’t just risky – it’s immoral. He contends that borrowing today to pay with future taxes amounts to coercion and corruption, a system of privilege that rewards insiders while punishing citizens. His solution is radical honesty – repudiate the debt and dismantle the leviathan state.

Newman’s book Cronyism: Liberty versus Power in Early America takes aim at how even the Founding Fathers helped entrench this exploitative model.

When & Where:

Date: Tonight
Time: 7 pm ET
Platform: Live on the ZeroHedge homepage, X, YouTube & Rumble

Authored by Melanie Sun via The Epoch Times,

President Donald Trump expressed optimism on Wednesday about securing deals with Chinese leader Xi Jinping on issues ranging from soybeans to rare earths and limiting nuclear weapons during scheduled talks next week in South Korea.

“I think we‘ll make a deal,” Trump told reporters gathered in the Oval Office for a visit by NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte.

“We’ll make a deal on, I think, everything.”

“We’ll have a pretty long meeting scheduled,” Trump said.

“We can work out a lot of our questions and our doubts and our tremendous assets together. So we look forward to that.”

Trump said he believes Xi now wants to end the war in Ukraine, and that the Chinese leader would be receptive to such a discussion.

“Because of Biden and Obama, they got forced together,” Trump said of China and Russia.

“They should never have been forced together but by nature, they can’t be friendly. I hope they are friendly frankly but they can’t be.

“Biden did that and Obama did that. They forced them together because of energy, because of oil,” Trump said, noting that was one of the issues he planned to discuss with Xi.

“I think I‘ll probably be talking about it. What I’ll really be talking to him about is how do we end the war with Russia and Ukraine, whether it’s through oil or energy or anything else. And I think he’s going to be very receptive.”

The U.S. president also said he expected to discuss with Beijing many other issues, from China resuming U.S. soybean purchases to including China on talks with Russia to limit nuclear weapons.

He noted that Russian President Vladimir Putin had raised the prospect of a bilateral de-escalation of nuclear weapons, and China could be added to that effort.

On rare earths, Trump said he wasn’t too concerned about China’s recent announcement of export controls on nearly all rare earth, calling it “a disturbance” to which he responded with additional tariffs of 100 percent.

Those are not due to take effect until Nov. 1 if an agreement can’t be reached.

Trump has sent conflicting messages about the Xi meeting in recent days, telling reporters on Tuesday that it might not happen. This comes amid reports of a power struggle between Xi and other factions within the Chinese Communist Party leadership structure and the Chinese military.

Asia Tour

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer traveled ahead of Trump on Wednesday, with their first stop in Malaysia to meet with Chinese officials over tensions regarding the rare earth export bans. Earlier in the month, Trump also responded with threats to bar “critical software“ exports to China.

“This is China versus the globe. It’s not just on the U.S.,” Bessent told Fox Business Network’s “Kudlow” program. “This licensing regime that they’ve proposed is unworkable and unacceptable,” he said of China’s rare earth threats.

He said the United States and its Western allies were contemplating how to respond if they were unable to negotiate a pause in Beijing’s plans or some other relief, but gave no details.

“I’m hoping that we can get this ironed out this weekend so that the leaders can enter their talks on a more positive note,” he said.

Trump is scheduled to travel to Kuala Lumpur for a meeting of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) that begins on Sunday, before making a stop in Japan to meet with their new prime minister, Sanae Takaichi.

He will then travel to South Korea ahead of a leaders’ summit of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum that is being held Oct. 31-Nov. 1 in Gyeongju.

Greer and Bessent have both stressed they do not want to decouple from China or escalate the situation, but insist the United States needs to rebalance trade with China after decades of very limited access to Chinese markets.

Greer told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” that China still has unfulfilled obligations to buy U.S. agricultural and manufactured goods under a trade deal signed during Trump’s first term as president.

“The U.S. has always been quite open to the Chinese, and it’s really been driven by Chinese policies that exclude U.S. companies and drive overcapacity and overproduction in China. None of that works for the United States,” he said. “We can’t live that way anymore, so we need an alternative path.”

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Everything until now has been a warm-up

As we head deeper into Q4 there is a natural tendency to think about the end of an exhausting year. However, there is a very high probability that the whirlwind of crazy headlines so far in 2025 have just been a warm-up for what is yet to come. After all, the Trump admin is still laying the foundations for a new US and global economy; the reactions to it are at the same stage; the nth order effects haven’t even begun to be felt. However, some of the first pillars are going up.

The Wall Street Journal reports the US has lifted a key restriction on Ukraine’s use of European long-range Storm Shadow missiles inside Russia, a major red line for Moscow. Trump immediately called the story “FAKE NEWS”, yet the story says, “The unannounced US move to enable Kyiv to use the missile in Russia comes after authority for supporting such attacks was recently transferred from Defence Secretary Hegseth to the top US general in Europe, General Grynkewich.” Either the journalists’ chain of comms is wrong or the one between the White House and the Pentagon is – of as vast significance as an attack on Russia using Storm Shadows.

In tandem, the US sanctioned Russia’s Rosneft and Lukoil for the first time, a major economic statecraft escalation that has seen oil prices move around 4% higher in response. That’s as a third European refinery that handles Russian oil, in Bratislava, Slovakia, went up in flames days after ones in Romania and Hungary. That cannot be a coincidence.

Against this backdrop, Putin just oversaw a readiness test of Russia’s nuclear forces. Europe and the UK may be working on a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire option to offer to Trump and Putin, but the real muscles are being flexed elsewhere (or inside Europe by others).

Trump also threatened Spain again for refusing to spend 5% of GDP on defence.

In the Middle East, a new US plan is to split Gaza into two zones, one controlled by Israel and the other by Hamas until it can be disarmed. The former zone will get rapid reconstruction and financial aid from the Saudis and UAE – though PM Netanyahu made clear no Turkish troops will be allowed. Market threats from the region have receded, though Iranian attempts to restart their nuclear plans still linger on. Broader US-backed opportunities may soon arise.

In LatAm, ‘Trump beats the drums of war for direct action in Venezuela’, says the Washington Post, as “some see the ultimate goal as toppling President Maduro.” The US just widened its campaign against alleged drug boats with a strike on the Pacific side of the continent; and if Russian energy is going to be throttled, Venezuela’s looks even more attractive. Meanwhile, the FT says investors are betting on Argentine peso devaluation after this weekend’s elections, with forward contracts indicating a 12% drop despite the $40bn US support package.

The US is considering broad software curbs on China. That would escalate their trade dispute, which becomes a war 1 November when tariffs hit 155%. Markets are trading as if every escalation automatically de-escalates. There is logic to that, but it isn’t a natural law.

Indeed, the South China Morning Post notes ‘As China’s leaders chart the next 5-year plan, they hear echoes from long ago’, where “Growing geopolitical challenges of today resemble those faced in the 1950s as Beijing seeks to navigate a complex new security landscape.” If you think the 1950s was an era in which China de-escalated ‘because markets’, then you really don’t know anything about the place at all.

The same paper notes ‘US fuels brain drain to China with Trump’s anti-science ‘Cultural Revolution’’ as “Chinese-American researchers are finding similarities with chaotic period under Mao Zedong that targeted intellectuals in China’. That’s as Harvard slashes its Ph.D. admission slots rather than firing huge numbers of its own recently hired and highly-paid non-academic admin staff.

With rumors that a US-India trade deal will be struck by end-month, where US tariffs will fall to 15% from 50% and India buy more energy and non-GMO agri, we have an official indication today that Delhi may buy more oil: we have to wait and see about the rest, which would be extremely significant in many contexts.

The US is talking to South Korea about the $350bn investment it pledged with its trade deal. Rather than offering it a dollar swapline, which Seoul had suggested might be needed, the focus is instead on getting the right mix of FDI, loans, and guarantees. This will be the template for Japan (where new PM Takaichi is saying she will buy more US pick-ups, soybeans, and LNG), the Middle East, and Europe. For Australia it’s easier: superfunds are going to invest $1 trillion Stateside by 2035, putting a vast chunk of non-property retirement cash in US hands and ensuring Down Under understands what’s going down, geopolitically.

In Europe, an apt snapshot of France in 2025 is that the Louvre’s surveillance cameras apparently pointed the wrong way, allowing the French crown jewels to be stolen. Equally, the museum’s director offered to resign but Macron refused to accept it: Carry On France. And in Germany, VW is stopping production of some product lines next week and reportedly being short up to €11bn due to Chinese competition, as Airbus opens a new assembly line… in China. Meanwhile, Von der Leyen gave another Gaullist speech about green tech, pledging:

• To introduce a “made in Europe” criteria for public procurement worth 14% of EU GDP: that’s a huge non-tariff barrier.
• To ensure new FDI is “truly in Europe’s interest”, not for others or elsewhere: but what about outbound FDI?
• Stepped up support for some strategic sectors to say “You are critical to Europe’s future. And your future will be made in Europe. That is critical for us.”: but does this mean tariffs and subsidies?

That was as the EU was forced to plan immediate changes to its sustainability law requiring firms operating there to address human rights and environmental issues in their supply chains or face fines of 5% of global turnover following the US and Qatar making clear their vital LNG exports to Europe would be at risk under that legislation. “Strategic autonomy” anyone?

Meanwhile, after the last surprising set of budget data, US Treasury analysis finds the country is on course to narrow its fiscal deficit ahead – though that projection clashes with IMF estimates.

That possibility, plus the picture of higher geopolitical tensions on multiple fronts, upside risks to energy prices, worries over a US-China trade war choking off dollar flows to it with a lag, massive inward investment into the US from multiple sources, bubble warnings from key figures, and the looming change at the helm in the Fed all point to markets primed for significant volatility ahead – and not necessarily on the easy-to-follow path seen in 2025 so far. Indeed, even gold was down for a third day yesterday, though it held the key $4,000 level.

Like I said, in a great many respects we are just getting warmed up.

Two weeks ago we reported on rumors that The White House was considering pardoning Changpeng Zhao, the former CEO of Binance better known as ‘CZ’.

And today, The Wall Street Journal reports, according to people familiar with the matter, that Trump has indeed pardoned CZ following months of efforts by Zhao to boost the Trump family’s own crypto company.

The company has spent nearly a year pursuing a pardon for Zhao, who left prison in September 2024 after serving a four-month sentence for related charges.

Earlier this year, the company hired lobbyist Ches McDowell to help pursue a pardon, the Journal previously reported.

Zhao, once among the most influential figures in the digital asset world, served time following a plea deal with the U.S. Department of Justice in 2023 that included a money-laundering conviction and $4.3 billion in fines for Binance. 

Zhao’s 2023 conviction marked one of the most high-profile cases in the government’s campaign against major exchanges. 

U.S. prosecutors accused Binance of allowing illicit transactions with sanctioned entities and failing to implement proper anti-money-laundering controls. CZ pleaded guilty, stepped down as CEO, and paid a personal fine of $50 million.

Zhao served a four-month prison sentence. He was sentenced in April 2024 and released in September 2024, after spending time in a low-security federal prison in California and then a halfway house.

Despite this, even critics of Binance have questioned whether the criminal charges were proportionate. Trump’s team reportedly sees Zhao’s situation as an opportunity to demonstrate a “new era” of crypto policy — one that favors innovation over punishment.

But according to several sources familiar with the matter, many within Trump’s inner circle viewed the case as politically motivated – a hallmark of what they describe as the Biden administration’s broader crackdown on crypto.

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said that Trump had “exercised his constitutional authority by issuing a pardon for Mr. Zhao, who was prosecuted by the Biden Administration in their war on cryptocurrency.”

She added:

“The Biden Administration’s war on crypto is over.”

The Wall Street Journal makes a point of highlighting the fact that Since Trump’s election, Binance has also been a key supporter of his family’s World Liberty Financial crypto venture, a business that has driven a huge leap in the president’s personal wealth.

Zhao remains Binance’s largest individual shareholder, and the pardon could clear the way for his formal return to the exchange, which he founded in 2017 and grew into the world’s largest Bitcoin and crypto trading platform.

A Trump pardon for CZ marks not only a personal vindication for Zhao, but could also be somewhat of a political statement: Trump signaling that the world’s most powerful government is truly open for Bitcoin business.

Former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev and close Putin-ally has blasted President Donald Trump’s new sanctions against Russia’s oil giants as an “act of war” which puts the United States on the direct warpath with Russia.

“The US is our enemy, and their talkative ‘peacemaker’ has now fully embarked on the warpath with Russia,” Medvedev, who serves as a top Russian national security official, said. “The decisions taken are an act of war against Russia. And now Trump has fully aligned himself with loony Europe,” he emphasized in the statement.

Rosneft and Lukoil, Russia’s two biggest oil companies, were slapped with US Treasury sanctions along with dozens of their subsidiaries, resulting in global oil prices to rise by 3% on Thursday. Further repercussions have included India, the largest importer of Russian oil, but mull cutting its purchases.

Trump has frequently said the “war should have never started” and that it’s Joe Biden’s fault, but Medvedev took the Republican president to task on this also, per Russian state media:

He argued that Trump had likely been pressured by both domestic and international hawks into taking a hardline stance, rather than acting out of ideological conviction as was the case with his predecessor, Joe Biden. “But now it’s his conflict,” Medvedev concluded, adding that Russia must focus on achieving its objectives militarily rather than through negotiations.

“Of course they’ll say he couldn’t do otherwise, that he was pressured in Congress, etc.,” Medvedev did concede in the statement. 

Still, it remains there’s no clear evidence that the Trump administration has ever brought real pressure to bear on its ally Zelensky to make key territorial concessions and to permanently reject the idea of ever joining NATO.

Instead, Trump has allowed long-range attacks inside Russia, and has even authorized intelligence help for the Ukrainians to attack energy sites deep into Russia.

With these escalations under the Trump White House, Medvedev is arguing that Trump now ‘owns’ the grinding conflict, also after the White House made clear the Budapest summit with Putin is not going to happen.

That’s another example of how detached from the reality they are :

New sanctions will force Russia to come to the negotiating table – Rutte

The NATO Secretary General is confident that new US sanctions against Russian companies will help force Putin to meet with Zelensky.

“A… pic.twitter.com/bkMaB9LbU5

— Dagny Taggart (@DagnyTaggart963) October 23, 2025

“I don’t want to have a wasted meeting,” Trump had said earlier this week. “I don’t want to have a waste of time, so we’ll see what happens.” The Kremlin had also said, “preparation is needed, serious preparation” before a meeting comes to fruition.

Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

It was earlier assessed that “The Next Putin-Trump Meeting Might Lead To Something Tangible This Time Around” due to newfound mutual interests in reaching a deal, but then Trump canceled the Budapest Summit on the grounds that he didn’t think it’d be worth his time.

He also imposed new energy sanctions on Russia and might be lying about not having approved Ukraine’s use of long-range missiles.

Trump’s latest flip-flop surprised many but can be attributable in hindsight to the following five reasons:

1. He’s Driving A Hard Bargain To Coerce Putin Into Maximum Concessions

Russia’s minimum goal is to obtain full control over Donbass, without which Putin can’t hypothetically freeze (let alone end) the war without “losing face”. Trump refuses to coerce Zelensky into withdrawing from there, instead believing that he can coerce Putin into freezing the conflict without first controlling Donbass, thus amounting to maximum concessions. That’s still unacceptable for Putin and might always be, but Trump seems to be taking his refusal personally, perhaps seeing it as a challenge to his authority.

2. The Warmongers Appear To Have Once Again Made Him Change His Mind

Trump’s announcement was made during a meeting with NATO chief Mark Rutte, thus suggesting that warmongers like him, Zelensky, Lindsey Graham, and others still have his ear. He’s infamously capricious, with many having noticed that he tends to be influenced by the last person who talked to him. This idiosyncrasy makes him comparatively easier to manipulate than most, which has enormous implications in terms of how certain lobbies and foreign forces could influence US policy throughout his second term.

3. Trump Seems To Truly Believe That The Any Escalation Will Remain Manageable

Trump wouldn’t try to drive a hard bargain and end up giving in to the warmongers unless he truly believed that any Russian-US escalation would remain manageable. His calculation presupposes that there won’t be any overwhelming response from Putin that would then push them towards climbing the escalation ladder all the way to the top. It’s predicated on the assumption that Russia is weaker than the US and will therefore back down if significantly pressured. That’s a gamble to take.

4. He’s Also Not Abandoning His Stratagem Of Dividing-And-Ruling Eurasia

Senior refinery executives told NDTV that “Flows of Russian oil to major Indian processors are expected to fall to near zero” after the latest sanctions, which could divide the newly solidified Russia-India-China (RIC) triangle if true. Trump might also expect that China will do the same to get him to curtail the additional 100% tariffs that he threatened to impose on it next month. He could still be proven wrong on both counts, but in any case, his latest escalation shows that he’s still trying to divide-and-rule Eurasia.

5. Trump Might Be Betting On Chinese Non-Compliance With The Latest Sanctions

China isn’t expected to comply with the US’ latest sanctions since it’ll gain by purchasing at a steep discount whatever oil Russia might soon be unable to sell to India. The interim Sino-US trade deal might then collapse if Trump imposes his threatened tariffs on China and makes their curtailing conditional on it dumping Russian oil. He might even want this predictable sequence of events to unfold, however, so as to justify accelerating his planned “Pivot (back) to (East) Asia” for more muscularly containing China.

Trump’s reason for once again escalating against Russia is primarily due to his belief (however possibly mistaken) that Putin won’t risk tensions spiraling out of control in response even if he never agrees to the maximum concessions being demanded of him.

The US might have also concluded, whether rightly or wrong, that India is the weak link in RIC which can be coerced into breaking up BRICS.

To be clear, these explanations don’t equate to endorsements, but they cogently account for what Trump just did.