Transgender violence and left-wing radicalism have been thrust into the news cycle this fall:

• “I’m Tired Of Being Trans” – Minneapolis Shooter Confesses “I Wish I Never Brain-Washed Myself”

• State Department Severs Ties With Armed Queers-Affiliated NGO; Marxist Group Nukes Socials

• FBI’s ‘Armed Queers’ Probe Just The Start – Lawmakers Urge Treasury To Freeze China-Linked Billionaire’s NGO Empire

• Attempted Kavanaugh Assassin Is A Transgender, New Court Filings Show

• “Planning War Against Fascists” – Socialist Rifle Association Boasts 10,000 Members

Before the political assassination of Charlie Kirk by a suspected furry-loving leftist and demonic transgender that shot up Christians at a church in Minneapolis, we warned about the left’s alarming rise with violence, chaos, and destruction are recurring themes found in their online posts, propaganda, manifestos, and civil disobedience in protests and riots (coined over the summer as “civil terrorism“). By late summer, we warned about “Nihilistic Accelerationism” from the left and the emergence of “transtifa”… Shortly after that, a transgender shooter targeted Christians, followed by the political assassination of Kirk.

Democrats and their billionaire-funded NGO network have fueled activist groups that, over the past decade, have created targeting profiles on President Trump and his MAGA supporters, who represent more than half of the country. Their rhetoric, using terms like “fascist” and “Nazi,” is not random whatsoever. MAGA must wake up to the dark reality that this rhetoric is designed to build targeting profiles for left-wing extremists, hence the assassination of Kirk, who was labeled a “fascist.” This targeting campaign appears to have been orchestrated at the highest levels:

With the targeting campaign still active, consider this: For many young Americans, especially those in woke education factories, called college, that dangerous narrative has been circulating like wildfire for more than half of their lives. As the old saying goes, if you repeat a lie often enough, it becomes accepted as truth.

It’s no mystery how Charlie Kirk’s murderer was conditioned to think conservatives are fascists. pic.twitter.com/9ZItjQE1nr

— Western Lensman (@WesternLensman) September 12, 2025

Democrats know exactly what they’re doing.

As always, the same old communist strategy. pic.twitter.com/ZcUGoU0kBi

— G£411B€R (@glauberrss) September 12, 2025

This leads us to the Socialist Rifle Association, which boasts 10,000 members, according to a report last month, has been “planning for war against fascists.”

“Planning War Against Fascists” – Socialist Rifle Association Boasts 10,000 Members https://t.co/VKnqpwoxoF

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 20, 2025

Remember Armed Queers? Well, they’re big fans of the billionaire-funded No Kings network.

Elizabeth Warren even embraced the movement. 

So here is @senwarren with the head of the Salt Lake City Armed Queers (she/her). Let’s see what a few hours of tracing lobby fund flows will reveal next. https://t.co/8TaLE0e4QA

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 17, 2025

Back to SRA, The Maine Wire’s Steve Robinson reports, “Graham Platner, the ex-Marine running against Gov. Janet Mills (D) for the Democratic U.S. Senate nomination, instructed members of the Socialist Rifle Association on paramilitary tactics.”

NEW: Ex-Marine Graham Platner Taught Military Tactics, Recruited for Socialist Paramilitary Group in Maine

Reddit posts reveal embattled progressive star recruited and provided firearms training for the Maine Socialist Rifle Association… pic.twitter.com/hxLKr3s4TW

— Steve Robinson (@BigSteve207) October 22, 2025

Robinson says that a recently enacted law in Maine prohibits “unauthorized paramilitary training” and could lead Platner to face a Class D crime.

Photographs published by the Maine Socialist Rifle Association appear to show someone who looks exactly like Platner at a 2022 firearms course pic.twitter.com/4o5LLGI5wy

— Steve Robinson (@BigSteve207) October 22, 2025

From the same party that calls Elon Musk and Trump “Nazi”…

A recently surfaced video shows Maine Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Graham Platner with a chest tattoo of the SS Totenkopf, the skull-and-crossbones emblem used by Nazi “Death’s Head” units.

Platner has stated he got the tattoo while drunk as a young Marine on shore leave in… pic.twitter.com/euH926eTgA

— Maine State Press (@MaineStatePress) October 21, 2025

Sigh…

All in all, leftist corporate media and deep-state talking heads have downplayed far-left violence. But many Americans received an extreme dose of reality this year: the radical left is armed, already carrying out or attempting political assassinations against MAGA figures, attacking the federal government, and has spent much of the year inciting riots and staging color-revolution-style operations.

The chaos will not stop until President Trump is removed. That’s the whole point of the chaos: it’s a coordinated color revolution operation funded by billionaire globalists that routes endless amounts of funds through the lawless NGO world. That’s why the White House has declared war on the radical left and vowed to “dismantle” these leftist groups that subvert the nation and conspire against it. We suspect a reckoning is nearing for the non-profit world.

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times,

The government shutdown that started on Oct. 1 has entered its fourth week and is now the second-longest in U.S. history.

At Day 22 of the shutdown, Democrats and Republicans have remained at odds. Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.) has been speaking on the Senate floor for more than 17 hours to protest the Trump administration’s policies.

The Senate was scheduled to vote for a 12th time to reopen the government, but Merkley’s speech may derail that vote.

Shutdowns Began in the 1980s

The ongoing shutdown is the second-longest funding lapse in modern history, exceeded by the 35-day shutdown that started in late 2018 and lasted until early 2019. Funding lapse-caused shutdowns are a mostly recent phenomenon, starting in their current format in the early 1980s, according to the House of Representatives’ website.

Before the 1980s, according to the House, “funding gaps did not typically have major effects on government operations. Government agencies would often continue to operate during a lapse in appropriations, with the expectation that funding would be provided in the future.”

That all changed after a series of legal opinions by then-Attorney General Benjamin Civiletti in 1980–1981 suggested that federal agencies had no legal basis to continue operating during funding lapses.

During the 35-day shutdown, Democrats disputed President Donald Trump’s request for billions in federal funding to construct a U.S.–Mexico border wall, a signature issue in Trump’s first presidential campaign. Later, the Senate passed an appropriations bill without any funding for the wall. This came after Democrats took power in the House after the 2018 midterm elections.

A shutdown in 1995 and 1996 lasted 21 days during the administration of President Bill Clinton.

No End in Sight

On Tuesday, Trump said that the GOP won’t “be extorted” by Democratic lawmakers.

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) called on Trump to meet with Democrats on ending the government shutdown.

“Things get worse every day for the American people,” Schumer said at an Oct. 21 news conference before calling for Trump to meet before the president’s trip to Asia. “He should sit down with us” and “negotiate in a serious way before he goes away.”

The House voted 11 times to pass a stopgap measure. On Oct. 20, the Senate again failed to pass a measure to fund the government through Nov. 21. In that vote, three Democrats joined Republicans, but the GOP needed several more to break through the 60-vote threshold.

House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) blamed Democrats during a news conference on Wednesday.

“While it’s already been, as we noted yesterday, the longest full government shutdown in history, Oct. 22 marks another landmark. This is now the second-longest government shutdown of any kind ever, in the history of our country,” Johnson said. “And it’s just shameful. Democrats keep making history, but they’re doing it for all the wrong reasons.”

Democrats say that the government reopening bill needs to include an extension of Affordable Care Act subsidies that expire at the end of the year. Republicans have said that the Obamacare measure should be considered separately.

“The ACA crisis is looming over everyone’s head, and yet Republicans seem ready to let people’s premiums spike,” Schumer said in a floor speech this past week.

Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.), a member of the Senate Appropriations Committee, said this past week that he wouldn’t vote to “move forward on appropriations bills until they’re serious about stopping health care premiums from going up.”

Trump: No Meeting Until Government Reopens

On Tuesday, Trump said that he won’t sit down with Democrats until the government is reopened.

“I would like to meet with both of them, but I said one little caveat, I will only meet if they let the country open,” Trump told reporters, referencing a request by Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.).

Schumer had said that Jeffries and he “reached out to the president today and urged him to sit down and negotiate with us to resolve the health care crisis, address it, and end the Trump shutdown.”

“We urged him to meet with us, and we said we’ll set up an appointment with him any time, any place before he leaves,” they added.

Earlier, Trump said he believed that some Democrats may ultimately break ranks and vote alongside Republicans to end the shutdown in the near future. A similar sentiment was made by his chief economist, Kevin Hassett, who told CNBC that he believes a government funding bill would be passed this week.

Workers Still Furloughed

Thousands of federal workers have been furloughed as federal agencies pared their activities beginning on Oct. 1, the start of the new fiscal year. Simultaneously, about $1.7 trillion in agency operations funding—about one quarter of annual federal spending—expired.

The nation’s 1.3 million active-duty service members got a reprieve. They were looking at missing a paycheck this past week, but Trump ordered the Pentagon to redirect money. Their next paycheck is due on Oct. 31.

The administration is also trying to dismiss thousands of federal workers in agencies that don’t align with its priorities. Republican leaders in Congress have said that’s part of the fallout from a shutdown.

White House budget chief Russ Vought said in an interview on “The Charlie Kirk Show” that many more are planned.

“I think we’ll probably end up being north of 10,000,” Vought said.

A federal judge in San Francisco this past week ordered the government to pause mass layoffs during the shutdown, saying that the cuts appeared to be politically motivated. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters that the administration was confident that it would prevail on the merits in subsequent legal action.

A number of states this month have warned that the funding lapse could affect issuance of Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) payments, or food stamps, starting on Nov. 1 if the shutdown persists.

Senator Rand Paul has again slammed President Donald Trump over his military operations off Venezuela, which has killed 27 people after at least half a dozen alleged drug smuggling boats have been blown out of the water by US drones.

Paul spoke with British journalist Piers Morgan this week and argued that any armed conflict should be approved by Congress. The Republican and libertarian-leaning Senator further questioned the administration’s claim that the strikes aim to thwart the fentanyl trade in particular.

Rand Paul argues against the indiscriminate targeting of boats off the coast of Venezuela:

“When can you kill people indiscriminately? When you’re at war. We don’t just summarily execute people, we actually present evidence and we convict them.” pic.twitter.com/4c45YZ9H0D

— The American Conservative (@amconmag) October 22, 2025

“There is no fentanyl made in Venezuela. Not just a little bit, there’s none being made. These are outboard boats that, in order for them to get to Miami, would have to stop and refuel 20 times,” Paul said.

“It’s all likely going to Trinidad and Tobago. There are a lot of reasons to be worried about this. Number one is the broader principle of when can you kill people indiscriminately when there’s war. That’s why when we declare war is supposed to be done by Congress. It’s not supposed to be done willy nilly. When there’s war you just kill people in the war zone, there are rules of engagement,” Paul added.

He further emphasized that “interdicting drugs has always been an anti crime activity where we don’t just summarily execute people, we actually present evidence and convict them.”

The Kentucky lawmaker has also recently asserted on social media that “it’s imperative that we make it clear that war powers reside with Congress, not the president.“

Paul has recently joined Democratic Sen. Tim Kaine in seeking to force a vote which would stop Trump from unilaterally declaring war on Venezuela.

The Washington Post meanwhile writes on Wednesday that Trump is beating the drums of war on Venezuela:

Trump has made clear his intentions to go beyond blowing up boats, saying “we’re going to stop them by land” in Venezuela. Several people familiar with internal administration deliberations said any initial land attack would probably be a targeted operation on alleged trafficker encampments or clandestine airstrips, rather than a direct attempt to unseat Maduro.

Some said the U.S. deployments and boat strikes were psychological warfare to promote fractures in the Venezuelan armed forces or persuade Maduro to step down.

But Trump has said nothing to dispel concerns that the United States could launch a full-scale military operation.

Paul argues to Piers Morgan: If we don’t blow up boats off Miami, why do it off Venezuela…

🇺🇸🇻🇪 SEN. RAND PAUL: IF WE DON’T BLOW UP BOATS OFF MIAMI, WHY DO IT OFF VENEZUELA

“If you go off the coast of Miami, the Coast Guard will be stopping boats today, and about 25% of the boats they stop that they’re suspicious of drugs, there won’t be any drugs on board.

So 25% of… https://t.co/Uc9Ji9fWcw pic.twitter.com/GLujzql2o6

— Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) October 22, 2025

Earlier in the week Trump was directly asked whether he has authorized the CIA to “take out” Maduro. Trump responded ambiguously by saying it would be “a ridiculous question for me to answer. But I think Venezuela is feeling the heat.”

*  *  * Click pic, select knife (our favorite), hear the lamentations of their women

Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times,

Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins said on Oct. 21 that the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) will resume distributing aid for farmers frozen by the government shutdown.

In a statement on X, Rollins said the USDA will resume operations at the Farm Service Agency (FSA) on Oct. 23, which includes processing farm loans and managing federal aid programs for farmers across the country.

“President Trump will not let the radical left Democrat shutdown impact critical USDA services while harvest is underway across the country,” the secretary stated.

Rollins said in a subsequent post that financial aid for farmers totals more than $3 billion.

In an interview with Fox News that aired Oct. 21, Rollins said that President Donald Trump has directed the USDA to reopen FSA offices nationwide to allow farmers to access and cash their aid payments.

The secretary also revealed that the Trump administration was preparing an aid package for farmers affected by China’s refusal to buy soybeans from the United States amid trade negotiations.

“Frankly, if the shutdown hadn’t happened a couple of weeks ago, thanks to the Democrats again, that package would likely have already been announced,” Rollins told the news outlet.

“But we are preparing it every day that goes by. The market changes a little bit, [but] there are some potential big moves coming in from around the world, from other markets,” she added.

China, the world’s largest soybean importer, purchased more than $12.64 billion worth of soybeans from the United States last year, according to the USDA data.

The country is now turning to suppliers from South America as negotiations over tariffs with the United States remain ongoing, resulting in billions in lost sales for American farmers.

Trump stated on Oct. 1 that soybeans would be a “major topic of discussion” during an expected meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in South Korea later this month.

“The Soybean Farmers of our Country are being hurt because China is, for ‘negotiating’ reasons only, not buying,” Trump stated in a Truth Social post.

The president also suggested that his administration would use revenues collected from tariffs to provide assistance to American farmers affected by China’s move.

“We’ve made so much money on tariffs, that we are going to take a small portion of that money, and help our farmers,” he stated.

“It’s all going to work out very well.”

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC on Oct. 2 that since every recent U.S. trade deal has included investments in American farm products, “we’re going to see other countries substitute for China.”

Update(1651ET): Washington is predictably making demands of Russia, despite that Ukraine still doesn’t have much in the way of leverage on the battlefield – and at a moment President Trump has refused to bring real pressure to bear on Kiev to make territorial concessions. 

“Now is the time to stop the killing and for an immediate ceasefire,” said Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent in a Wednesday afternoon statement, after he said new sanctions are imminent.

“Given President Putin’s refusal to end this senseless war, Treasury is sanctioning Russia’s two largest oil companies that fund the Kremlin’s war machine. Treasury is prepared to take further action if necessary to support President Trump’s effort to end yet another war. We encourage our allies to join us in and adhere to these sanctions.”

The companies have been named in the Treasury statement as follows:

Today’s action targets Russia’s two largest oil companies, Open Joint Stock Company Rosneft Oil Company (Rosneft) and Lukoil OAO  (Lukoil), which are now designated.  Rosneft is a vertically integrated energy company specializing in the exploration, extraction, production, refining, transport, and sale of petroleum, natural gas, and petroleum products.  Lukoil engages in the exploration, production, refining, marketing, and distribution of oil and gas in Russia and internationally.

Rosneft and Lukoil are being designated pursuant to E.O. 14024 for operating or having operated in the energy sector of the Russian Federation economy.

Dozens of Russia-based Rosneft and Lukoil subsidiaries have also been named as falling under the fresh sanctions.

This takes the two sides further away from actually striking a peace deal at the negotiating table than ever before.

* * *

Update(1546ET): A couple of significant breaking headlines saw oil prices spike Wednesday afternoon, especially US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announcing Washington would unveil fresh sanctions against Russia, and coming only day after President Trump shelved talks with Moscow on the Ukraine war, after initial talk of a Budapest summit with Putin.

“We are going to either announce after the close this afternoon, or first thing tomorrow morning, a substantial pickup in Russia sanctions,” Bessent told reporters at the White House.

⚡️The US will tighten sanctions against Russia – this will be announced tomorrow, said Finance Minister Bessent. pic.twitter.com/5VERAhjOC5

— big ben (@alternative_war) October 22, 2025

Bessent later told Larry Kudlow that the imminent Russia sanctions will be one of the biggest yet:

“President Putin has not come to the table in an honest and forthright manner, as we’d hoped.

There were talks in Alaska, President Trump walked away when he realized that things were not moving forward.

There have been behind-the-scenes talks, but I believe that the president is disappointed at the – where we are in these talks.

So this — either this evening or first thing tomorrow morning, we are going to be announcing a substantial increase in Russia’s sanctions… this will be one of the largest sanctions that we have done against the Russian Federation.“

Bessent complains: ‘Putin hasn’t come to the table in an honest and forthright manner’

He thinks Trump’s ‘DISAPPOINTED at where we are in talks’

Says new Russia sanctions will be ‘1 of LARGEST’ https://t.co/1kwzoVObQX pic.twitter.com/h4n6UmoZNe

— RT (@RT_com) October 22, 2025

His comments sent the price of WTI Crude soaring…

Bessent’s comments came just before NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte was due at the White House, in which he said he hopes to discuss “how to deliver” Trump’s “vision of peace” in the conflict.

Earlier in the day, Rutte said he believes that Trump is “the only one who can get this done”.

* * *

Just as NATO secretary general Mark Rutte is in Washington and is set to meet with President Trump Wednesday afternoon, Russia has launched another major overnight drone and missile attack which resulted in a high amount of civilian casualties.

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky said in a post on X that the attack killed at least seven civilians, including children, and that 17 were confirmed injured. “There were fires in Zaporizhzhia and hits on homes in Kyiv. The Kyiv, Odesa, Chernihiv, Dnipro, Kirovohrad, Poltava, Vinnytsia, Zaporizhzhia, Cherkasy and Sumy regions were under attack,” he wrote.

In all at least ten regions came under attack, and air defense were active across the country, with at least one major drone intercept caught on camera (below).

Zelensky highlighted both the ongoing need for Western-supplied air defense systems, as well as piling more sanctions on Moscow to make it feel the pressure. “Russian words about diplomacy mean nothing as long as the Russian leadership doesn’t feel critical problems,” Zelensky asserted.

Also, Zelensky alleged that Russia’s assault directly struck a kindergarten in Kharkiv, and that one fatality occurred as a result. He described all children were evacuated, with many “experiencing acute stress reactions”.

Many regions across the country have been experiencing blackouts as well, after already the national electricity grid operator said it would be forced to implement an emergency program of rolling outages.

The moment of interception of a Russian Shahed-136/Geran-2 long-range OWA-UAV by Ukrainian air defenses while it is diving on its target. pic.twitter.com/7UmSHgxKSu

— Status-6 (Military & Conflict News) (@Archer83Able) October 22, 2025

Zelensky has been arguing that Moscow has no interest whatsoever in peace: “These strikes are Russia’s spit in the face of everyone who insists on a peaceful resolution. Bandits and terrorists can only be put in their place by force.”

Russia’s military, for its part, has countered that it only targeted the “energy infrastructure of Ukraine’s military-industrial sector”. Moscow has frequently denied that it intentionally targets civilian sites and homes. 

“In response to Ukraine’s terrorist attacks on civilian facilities on the territory of Russia, the Russian Armed Forces delivered a massive overnight strike by ground-based and airborne long-range precision weapons, including Kinzhal air-launched hypersonic ballistic missiles and also attack unmanned aerial vehicles, hitting energy infrastructure of Ukraine’s military-industrial sector,” a statement in TASS said.

It added, “The goals of the strike were achieved. All the designated targets were hit.” Likely Russian officials are going to deny that the military attacked a children’s school.

Удар російського безпілотника по дитячому садочку в Харкові – після ночі масованої атаки. На жаль, відомо про одного загиблого. Мої співчуття рідним. Станом на зараз семеро людей постраждало. Їм надається медична допомога. Всі діти евакуйовані й перебувають в укриттях. За… pic.twitter.com/uSdSaf8k7u

— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) October 22, 2025

The military has also said Russian troops captured two settlements in the Dnepropetrovsk and Zaporozhye regions over the past 24 hours.

“Battlegroup Center units liberated the settlement of Ivanovka in the Dnepropetrovsk Region through decisive operations… Battlegroup East units kept advancing deep into the enemy’s defenses and liberated the settlement of Pavlovka in the Zaporozhye Region,” the defense ministry said in a statement.

NATO’s Rutte in Washington will likely press Trump to take a firmer stance on Russia, and the two might even privately discussing transferring US Tomahawk missiles to Kiev. Trump has signaled he’s against this for now, but the option has probably not been taken off the table just yet.

Update (1630ET): President Trump has issued a statement via Truth Social calling The Wall Street Journal’s report implying that the US supported/sanctioned Ukraine’s use of long-range missiles into Russia is ‘fake news’:

“The Wall Street Journal story on the U.S.A.’s approval of Ukraine being allowed to use long range missiles deep into Russia is FAKE NEWS!

The U.S. has nothing to do with those missiles, wherever they may come from, or what Ukraine does with them!”

But the Russian sanctions threat remains “substantial”.

*  *  *

As Dave DeCamp detailed earlier via AntiWar.com, Ukraine’s military said on Tuesday that it used British-provided Storm Shadow missiles to strike a chemical plant inside Russia’s Bryansk Oblast, signaling the US is again supporting Ukrainian missile strikes on Russian territory.

“A massive combined missile-and-air strike was carried out, including with air-launched Storm Shadow missiles that penetrated Russia’s air defence system,” the General Staff of Ukraine’s Armed Forces said in a statement, according to Reuters. So far, the attack hasn’t been confirmed by Russia.

Storm Shadows are produced jointly by the UK and France and have a range of about 150 miles. Ukraine first began firing them into Russia last year, along with US-provided ATACMS missiles, which can hit targets up to 190 miles away.

In August, The Wall Street Journal reported that the Trump administration was not allowing Ukraine to fire ATACMS into Russia, a policy that also applied to Storm Shadows, since the Ukrainian military requires US targeting data to fire the British missiles.

But another report from the outlet this month said that President Trump reversed the policy and signed off on providing Ukraine with intelligence for long-range missile strikes on Russian territory.

The Financial Times has also reported that the Trump administration has been providing intelligence for long-range drone attacks on Russian energy infrastructure since July.

US-backed missile and drone attacks on Russian territory always risk a major escalation from Moscow, which could draw all of NATO into nuclear-armed confrontation with Russia.

Purported video of strike on Bryansk chemical plant…

❗️❗️❗️🇺🇦🚀BOOOM – The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine confirms that today a successful strike was carried out on the Bryansk chemical plant, during which several STORM SHADOW type cruise missiles were used along with other types of cruise missiles in the attack,… pic.twitter.com/FNJZBPaMOK

— Visioner (@visionergeo) October 21, 2025

When President Biden first gave Ukraine the green light to fire ATACMS and Storm Shadows into Russia, Moscow responded by altering its nuclear doctrine to lower the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons.

First a preview (for those who just want the results, skip this section):

As previewed earlier, today’s Tesla earnings report will be closely watched by most – not just because it is the first Mag7 company to report, but because the stocks has soared in recent months, and everyone will be wondering if Elon will substantiate the move with cold, hard data. 

The Q3 earnings will be boosted by record third-quarter sales earlier this month, driven by US consumers making purchases before EV tax credits went away at the of September. The deliveries give Tesla respite from an extended rough patch, but the EV maker still remains on track for a second straight year of declining sales. Tesla’s aging vehicle lineup has faced increased competition. There’s also been a backlash against the brand after CEO Elon Musk’s partisan politics and role in the Trump Administration. 

The Q3 earnings call will be a precursor to the Nov. 6 vote on Musk’s unprecedented $1 trillion pay package. In some sense, it presents a late opportunity to influence voting. The retail investors who get to submit and vote on questions for the call certainly believe so. Beyond proximity to the annual shareholder meeting, there’s also some math to be done from the quarter Tesla’s reporting, and the company’s plan for the next decade.

The sale of regulatory credits to other automakers has long been a cash cow for Tesla, including $439 million in the second quarter.  But now the market for these credits has largely evaporated, because the Trump administration has eliminated penalties for automakers who don’t comply with CAFE, or corporate average fuel economy, standards. This is a much bigger hit to Tesla’s bottom line than the $7,500 tax credit for consumers that has long helped electric vehicles compete with the internal combustion engine.

Separately, the nearly 500,000 vehicles Tesla delivered last quarter coincided with US consumers rushing to beat federal tax credits expiring. Musk’s proposed pay package mandates that the company delivers 20 million EVs to consumers over the 10 years of the agreement. To do that, Tesla will have to average 500,000 units a quarter. So if last quarter was a one-off boosted by policy, how are Tesla and Musk going to keep hitting that target? Capacity? Better products?

Investors will also vote on a non-binding shareholder proposal for Tesla to take a stake in Musk’s xAI startup, an idea Musk floated last year. The two companies already work together. Some Tesla vehicles integrate xAI’s Grok, and the companies have agreements for xAI to purchase Tesla’s Megapack battery storage systems.

Investors and analysts will also be closely listening for any updates on autonomy efforts, including robotaxi and FSD (Full Self Driving) software.  Tesla and Musk have increasingly bet the company on these areas, but the CEO is also known for his overly ambitious timelines.  In June, Tesla launched its long-awaited robotaxi, using existing Model Y SUVs with safety drivers in the passenger seat. But there have been few updates. So far Tesla is operating in Austin, and has permits to test autonomous vehicles in Nevada and Arizona.

Earnings aside, BBG’s Ed Ludlow notes that one of Elon Musk’s greatest skills is keeping investors looking to the horizon. In that respect, there will be some repetition on the vision for a robotaxi service, with a fleet split between consumer-owned Tesla submitted to it, Tesla’s Cybercab and off-lease cars. Then there’s the economy-changing Optimus Humanoid robot. Indeed, at Tesla’s engineering HQ, Optimus is already in and amongst the workforce, prowling the rows of desks, and a great source of pride to the company.

Also top of mind for some this earnings call: will any analysts ask Elon Musk about Tesla’s plans to redesign its doors? When Tesla vehicles lose power, crashes can turn into deadly races against time. In September, Bloomberg published an investigation into this issue that focused, in part, on the fatal Cybertruck crash in Piedmont, California, from last year where three of four occupants — all college students — died. Then, on Sept. 16, the US National Highway Traffic Safety Administration said it opened a defect investigation into certain Tesla Model Y door handles. And on Sept. 17, Tesla’s chief designer said the company is working on a redesign of its door handles. What is the timeline for a redesign? And will it be available on all models going forward? Are there any plans to retrofit existing models? Or is the thinking that Tesla is in compliance with existing federal motor vehicle safety standards, so there is no need? 

With all that in mind…

Here is what Tesla – the first Mag 7 to report – just revealed for the just concluded 3rd quarter:

• Revenue $28.10 billion, +12% y/y, beating estimates of $26.36 billion
• Adjusted EPS 50c, down vs 72c y/y, and missing the estimate if 54c 
• GAAP EPS 39c, down vs 62c y/y
• Gross margin 18% vs. 19.8% y/y, beating estimate 17.2%, but…
• Tesla 3Q Auto Gross Margin Ex-Reg Credit 15.4%, missing estimate of 16.3%, and down vs 17.1% Y/Y
• Operating income $1.62 billion, -40% y/y, missing estimate $1.65 billion
• Free cash flow $3.99 billion, +46% y/y, beating estimates $1.25 billion

While revenue and margins beat, the Adj EPS miss was a big surprise judging by the violent repricing on Polymarket which had a “beat” at 80% moments before the release:

While the numbers were mixed, perhaps the most important one – the company’s regulator credits are discussed above – slumped to just $417MM, the lowest in two years, and will continue to decline for the duration of Trump’s admin (at least).

A quick snapshot of the company’s discussions of its revenue, which increased 12% YoY to $28.1B, and beat estimates: 

• + increase in vehicle deliveries (driven by expiration of tax credit)
• + growth in Energy Generation and Storage
• + growth in Services and Other
   
• – lower regulatory credit revenue
• – lower one-time FSD revenue recognition YoY due to Q3’24 releases related to Cybertruck and certain features such as Actually Smart Summon

… but while revenue was good, profitability was not: operating income decreased 40% YoY to $1.6B despite a 7% jump in deliveries and the highest auto revenue in nearly two years –  resulting in only 5.8% operating margin. Tesla took a notable hit here to the bottom line, and talked about a laundry list including tariffs, new models, lower regulatory credits and increased R&D costs:

• + growth in Energy Generation and Storage gross profit
• + increase in vehicle deliveries
• + growth in Services and Other gross profit
   
• – lower regulatory credit revenue
• – increase in operating expenses (excl. SBC and Restructuring and Other) driven by SG&A, AI and other R&D projects
• – increase in SBC and Restructuring and Other charges
• – lower one-time FSD revenue recognition YoY as described above
• – higher average cost per vehicle due to lower fixed cost absorption for certain models, an increase in tariffs, and sales mix, partially offset by lower raw material costs

Here are the charts recapping Q3:

Tesla’s own market share chart in its earnings release shows the slowdown that’s beset the EV maker around the world, particularly in Europe and in China.  

As BBG notes, it is a strange chart to include in an earnings release, which shines a light on just how much market share growth has stunted. 

Going down the press release we find this good news… 

“Cybercab, Tesla Semi and Megapack 3 are on schedule for volume production starting in 2026. First generation production lines for Optimus are being installed in anticipation of volume production.”

… but then again, it may all change: Tesla warned again they are in a time of transition, expanding the portfolio of EV products, bracing for future revenues from AI and robotics. Here’s how they explain their volumes:

“It is difficult to measure the impacts of shifting global trade and fiscal policies on the automotive and energy supply chains, our cost structure and demand for durable goods and related services. While we are making prudent investments that will set up our vehicle, energy and other future businesses for growth, the actual results will depend on a variety of factors, including the broader macroeconomic environment, the rate of acceleration of our autonomy efforts and production ramp at our factories”

As Tesla notes, it launched ride-hailing service in the Bay Area using Robotaxi technology. It’s worth noting that the service isn’t permitted for, or considered fully autonomous. The company also uses the term Robotaxi FSD to refer to the latest version of FSD (Supervised) that has been deployed to some beta testers. Btw, there was no mention of robotaxi in Nevada or Arizona where the company has autonomous test permits.

A quick look at best geographies:

“South Korea is now our third-largest market behind only the U.S. and China, serving as validation of our competitive positioning in a robust EV market.”

And an update on onshoring efforts:

“We expect our lithium refinery in Texas to begin production in Q4 2025 and our LFP lines in Nevada to begin production Q1 2026.”

There is also the question how much of an anomaly the 3Q was, with record deliveries highly impacted by a rush of consumers before federal tax credits expired. Tesla’s acknowledging near the top of the PR that the environment is changing for them and they are beholden to factors outside of their control:

“While we face near-term uncertainty from shifting trade, tariff and fiscal policy, we are focused on long-term growth and value creation. We are prudently making the necessary investments in our business, including future business lines, that we believe will drive incredible value for Tesla and the world across transport, energy and robotics”

Yes, Tesla specifically called out the increase in tariffs leading to a dent in profitability when describing higher average costs per vehicle.

Which leads us to the outlook… which doesn’t say much:

“It is difficult to measure the impacts of shifting global trade and fiscal policies on the automotive and energy supply chains, our cost structure and demand for durable goods and related services. While we are making prudent investments that will set up our vehicle, energy and other future businesses for growth, the actual results will depend on a variety of factors, including the broader macroeconomic environment, the rate of acceleration of our autonomy efforts and production ramp at our factories.”

A quick look at the cash flow and the near record FCF, which was significantly better than expected, at $4 billion far above the consensus print of $1.25 billion, Tesla attributed the performance to record vehicle deliveries in the period, and record energy deployments. 

“In Q3, the Tesla team achieved record vehicle deliveries globally, showing strength and growth across all regions, while also achieving record energy storage deployments across the residential, industrial and utility sectors. This strong performance resulted in both record revenue and free cash flow generation in the quarter.”

Not surprisingly, the tax-credit expiration led to an EV buying spree which allowed Tesla to clear virtually all the excess vehicles produced in the first half of the year during the third quarter. The results was a massive, one-off working capital release of $2.1 billion, teeing up the big free cash flow of $3.99 billion.

Turning to energy, Tesla disclosed that revenue from energy and storage revenue jumped 44% from a year ago, far eclipsing the 6% increase from autos. That comes from residential, industrial and utility storage. The company is also leaning back toward solar leasing. The appeal of leases: They still qualify for tax credits after President Donald Trump ended some federal renewable incentives. The company says its new solar-and-Powerwall lease “will help drive incremental demand” for its residential-energy products. Still, Tesla didn’t disclose its 3Q solar deployments. It hasn’t done so in several quarters.

All in all, the stocks kneejerked lower, bounced, and is once again sliding as markets focus on the EPS miss, the drop in profits and the neutered guidance.

Authored by Noi Mahoney via FreightWaves.com,

Cargo theft across North America is rapidly evolving from traditional trailer break-ins to sophisticated digital fraud schemes that use artificial intelligence, social engineering and marketplace reselling to move stolen goods faster than ever before, experts told FreightWaves.

“Criminals have realized they can commit theft without ever touching the freight,” Danny Ramon, director of intelligence and response at supply chain risk firm Overhaul told FreightWaves.

“They’re lowering their physical risk and scaling operations digitally — sometimes pulling off multiple thefts a day.”

Ramon said organized cargo networks are increasingly adopting AI-generated voices and synthetic identities to bypass verification calls or create fake carrier profiles. 

“AI, just like it is in the business world, is a force multiplier in the criminal world as well,” Ramon said.

“Unfortunately, it’s adding efficiency, it’s sometimes the appearance of legitimacy, especially to social engineering and phishing attacks. AI now is making these things messages … not only grammatically perfect, if need be, but maybe just imperfect enough to sound like a person.”

The digital shift mirrors a broader trend noted by Descartes’ account executive Danielle Spinelli, who is known in the freight industry as the “Fraud Girl” and hosts the Tell Me Everything podcast.

“I’ve heard of brokerages getting phone calls from AI bots on the carrier side — they’re trying not to sound Middle Eastern or raise red flags, just to sound like a typical call,” Spinelli said.

“If you’re dispatching, ask drivers real-time questions — like about the weather or their surroundings — instead of routine ones, because that’s what the bots are programmed to answer.”

Cargo thefts in the U.S. increased 33% year-over-year in the second quarter to 525 incidents, according to Overhaul’s Q2-2025 cargo theft report. 

Criminals targeted California (38% of all cases during the quarter), Texas (21%), Tennessee (15%), Pennsylvania (10%) and Illinois (7%). The areas around Los Angeles and Long Beach accounted for 36% of all cargo theft cases in the U.S. during the quarter.

Top commodities targeted by thieves in the quarter included electronics, food and beverage products and home appliances.

Low-risk, high-reward — and powered by social media

Both experts warned that freight crime has become more agile thanks to online reselling channels such as Facebook Marketplace, TikTok Shop, and small pop-up stores.

“There’s now a criminal direct-to-consumer pipeline by way of e-tail websites and social media marketplaces where whatever these cargo thieves are stealing, they’re reaping 100% of the sale price,” Ramon said.

On Oct. 2, authorities in Los Angeles arrested Adeel Shams, founder of popular sneaker resale platform CoolKicks, after discovering more than $500,000 in stolen Nike goods during a raid at the company’s Santa Monica warehouse. Following Shams arrest, CoolKicks issued a statement saying they had no knowledge that the Nike products were stolen goods when they purchased them.

Trending consumer products — from energy drinks to sneakers — are also top targets, Ramon added.

“Anything going viral on TikTok will get targeted,” Ramon said. “It’s no longer about cost density; it’s about how fast they can liquidate the load.”

Spinelli said even low-value loads like bottled water or Kraft mac and cheese have become training exercises for newer fraudsters.

“Some of the things happening is they’re making the new guys that are getting in the fraud game handle those low, lower risk ones because those are easier to train on,” she said. “I think then as they kind of get trained up, then they go after the big things.”

Holiday hotspots and a Mexico shift

Overhaul’s data shows theft spikes each holiday season near major intermodal hubs — including Southern California, Dallas-Fort Worth, Chicago, Atlanta, Memphis, and the Northeast corridor. 

“Distribution centers are packed right now, and that’s when security corners get cut,” Ramon said.

Ramon noted rising theft and violence in Mexico’s freight corridors, especially in Puebla, which recently surpassed the State of Mexico as the top cargo-theft state.

“Cartel groups centralized control there, and now we’re seeing more violence at the start of thefts rather than just threats,” he said.

A growing cost to the industry

While cargo theft still represents only a small fraction of total freight transactions, Spinelli said its financial impact is severe. 

“When companies get hit, insurance doesn’t always cover it — they pay out of pocket, and some shut down,” she said. “That cost just rolls back to the consumer.”

Both experts agreed that education and awareness — not just detection — will define the next phase of the industry’s fight against freight fraud.

“It’s a cat-and-mouse game,” Spinelli said. “The bad guys evolve fast. So the only real defense is staying one step ahead.”

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

Is this scenario guaranteed? No, of course not. But that doesn’t mean it’s excluded from the realm of possibility.

We all know the end-game when currencies are inflated as an expedient measure to stave off insolvency: devaluation eventually has consequences as the debauched currency is eventually replaced, a process that wipes out everyone holding or using the devalued currency.

It’s natural to assume this is a linear process and therefore predictable, as that’s what it looks like when looking back at the broad sweep of history. But the process isn’t inherently linear; it’s non-linear as the dynamics around “money” and “risk” are emergent, meaning that the sum of the parts have qualities of their own that are not predictable.

Which brings us to the question: could the much-maligned, guaranteed-it’s-going-to-zero US dollar USD) stage a rip-your-face-off rally that wipes out those shorting the USD by generating a mad rush for scarce–yes, scarce–USD?

The Federal Reserve measures the supply of US dollars via M2: basically cash in various accounts. As you can see on the chart below, M2 Money Supply is about $22 trillion after a $6 trillion rocket-boost in the Covid stimulus phase.

That may sound like a lot, but consider the global bucket of financial assets is worth $480 trillion. Global Asset Monitor: Public (sovereign bonds, etc.) $232.4 trillion, Private (stocks, RE) $246.8 trillion: $479.2 trillion total.

So M2 Money Supply is 4.6% of global financial assets. US dollars in circulation, i.e. Federal Reserve notes/Greenbacks, is around $2.4 trillion.

The US dollars held in time deposit accounts in banks outside the US are called Eurodollars. I am not an expert on the eurodollar market, but it appears to have experienced a decline in volume since 2016. As this article from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York explains, changes in banking regulations led to selected deposits on the books of US banks replacing the majority of eurodollars volume.

Who Is Borrowing and Lending in the Eurodollar and Selected Deposit Markets?

“Selected deposits are unsecured U.S. dollar deposits that also tend to have an overnight maturity, similar to Eurodollars. However, unlike Eurodollars, but like fed funds, selected deposits are booked at bank offices in the U.S.”

The conventional view is that eurodollars are advantageous because they are not regulated by US agencies or the Federal Reserve and so much of the activity is opaque, qualifying as “shadow banking.” Eurodollar Secrets: The Hidden Engine of Global Finance (tradingview.com)

“The Eurodollar system is one of the greatest financial innovations–and enigmas–of modern capitalism. Born from geopolitical necessity, it evolved into a vast offshore network that creates and circulates U.S. dollars beyond U.S. borders.

Its power lies in its invisibility: it influences global liquidity, shapes monetary policy, and fuels international trade, all without direct oversight.

However, with great power comes great risk. The Eurodollar market’s opacity and lack of regulation mean it can amplify crises when liquidity dries up.”

As I understand it, a non-US bank holding $100 million in eurodollar deposits can issue loans denominated in USD based on the USD on deposit. In this case, the quantity of USD is increased not only by the Federal Reserve or US banks but by non-banks holding eurodollars.

There were an estimated $13.8 trillion eurodollars in 2016. I haven’t found any more recent estimates that aren’t paywalled. Back of the envelope, let’s say there are around $17-$20 trillion in eurodollars floating around, which would put total USD in the global financial system around 8% ($38 trillion) or 9% ($43 trillion).

Here is the chart of M2 Money Supply, courtesy of the Federal Reserve:

Why would anyone need USD? The usual reason is to service or pay off USD-denominated debt. As credit tightens–which happens when global markets shift from risk-on to risk-off–loans denominated in USD issued by non-US banks (i.e. eurodollar credit) mature and the lender demands payment in full rather than roll the debt into a new loan.

The borrower must then buy dollars to pay off the loan. Just because there are a lot of dollars in existence doesn’t mean there are an abundance of dollars available. When a loan denominated in dollars is paid off, those USD that were borrowed into existence go to Money Heaven.

So the total supply of dollars can shrink in a risk-off crisis as loans are called and liquidated. Much of the supply of USD is tied up and not available for borrowing. In risk-off crises, dollars are hoarded, reducing the supply available for lending.

Given the enormous size of the global financial assets bucket–and the unknown but estimated to be gigantic market of USD-linked derivatives such as currency swaps–the demand for dollars could far exceed the amount available to desperate borrowers and those at the end of derivative chains that eventually lead back to some form of USD-denominated collateral.

This is one scenario for a rip-your-face-off rally in the US dollar that wipes out dollar shorts (those betting on a decline in the relative value of the USD against other currencies), bankrupts borrowers who were unable to secure enough dollars, and forces eurodollar lenders into insolvency when the USD-denominated loans they issued are not paid back.

In systems terms, a risk-off global crisis is a self-organizing criticality that can trigger a phase change much like an avalanche–a dynamic I describe in my new book Investing In Revolution:

“These dynamics of complex systems are illustrated in the Sand Pile analogy: as grains of sand drop out of a hopper, they form a pile which grows in size until it reaches a point of instability, and the sand pile collapses in an avalanche. Which grain of sand will trigger the instability cannot be predicted, and neither can the size of the avalanche.

The sand pile is an example of self-organized criticality, a self-organizing system that hovers between instability and stability. At a critical point/tipping point, a phase transition occurs–the avalanche. Avalanches / instabilities follow a power law distribution: for every 100 small avalanches, there will be 10 that are considerably larger, and one gigantic one that takes down the entire system.”

And that’s how a rip-your-face-off rally in the guaranteed-it’s-going-to-zero US dollar triggers an avalanche that topples multiple lines of dominoes stretching throughout the global financial system. All sorts of collateral would be liquidated to raise funds to buy dollars, and that’s how the world ends up with a global financial crisis few thought possible.

Is this scenario guaranteed? No, of course not. But that doesn’t mean it’s excluded from the realm of possibility.

*  *  *

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Another cockroach?

PrimaLend Capital Partners, which provides financing to auto dealerships that cater to subprime borrowers, filed for bankruptcy after months of negotiations with creditors following missed interest payments on its debt. 

Its products include financing for receivables, real estate and automobile inventory, according to its website.

This follows the sudden collapse of Tricolor (subprime auto lender) and First Brands (after-market auto parts supplier) with PrimaLend listing estimated assets and liabilities below $500 million each, according to court documents it filed in the Northern District of Texas. 

In a press release, PrimaLend said it was pursuing a sale of the business in bankruptcy court and would continue to fund and service loans to its own borrowers.

PrimaLend finances “buy here, pay here” auto dealerships, which serve low-income borrowers.

“No debt is being called due or accelerated as a result of this process,” PrimaLend’s chief executive officer, Mark Jensen, said in the release.

“We deeply value our dealer-borrower relationships and look forward to continuing to serve the buy-here-pay-here industry as we move forward.”

The company has received a commitment for bankruptcy financing to help fund operations in Chapter 11 from existing lenders, according to the release.

None of this should come as a surprise since we have seen auto loan delinquencies soar and now repossession breaking records.

Building a business on the back of lending to illegal immigrants to enable the purchase of a rapidly devaluing asset – brilliant!

There are many more dominoes left to fall (or cockroaches left to discover) in this space – the question is, will there be contagion? Even Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey chimed in this week, warning that the First Brands (and similar Tricolor) collapses could signal “much bigger financial problems” ahead.