President Donald Trump commended the FBI in an Oct. 20 Truth Social post, saying that the agency is doing an “incredible job,” having arrested thousands of criminals and disrupting criminal activity across the nation.

“Since January 20th, more than 28,000 Violent Criminals have been arrested (RECORD BREAKING!), with over 6,000 illegal weapons seized, more than 1,700 child predators and 300 human traffickers taken off the streets, 5,000 innocent children rescued, 2,000 Criminal Enterprises disrupted, 1,900 kilos of Fentanyl (Enough to kill 125 Million people!) taken out—HISTORIC RESULTS,” Trump wrote.

“We are bringing LAW AND ORDER back to America. Kash, Dan, Andrew, and the men and women of the FBI, are doing a tremendous job, MAKING AMERICA SAFE AGAIN!” he said, referring to FBI Director Kash Patel, Deputy Director Dan Bongino, and Co-deputy Director Andrew Bailey.

As Naveen Athrappully details below for The Epoch Times, a key part of the FBI’s crackdown against violent criminals has been the agency’s Operation Summer Heat, which ran from June to September and targeted such individuals.

On Oct. 15, Trump and Patel announced that more than 8,700 violent criminals were arrested from major U.S. cities during the operation. Around 11,000 murderers were arrested, with around half of them wanted for more than one homicide.

Some places, such as Nashville and New Orleans, saw a 250 percent jump in arrests of people Trump described as the most violent offenders.

Nationwide, crime fell 20 percent from the same period last year, with Trump calling the recent summer the “safest and most peaceful summer in two decades.”

“There’s still much more work to be done, which is why the FBI continues to work alongside the Department of Justice, the Department of Homeland Security, and the Department of War to defend law and order and combat violent crime, arrest illegal aliens, and make American cities the safest in the world,” Trump said.

“Every American deserves to live in a community where they’re not afraid of being mugged, murdered, robbed, raped, assaulted, or shot.

“And that’s exactly what our administration is working to deliver.”

Multiple FBI offices have released stats related to Operation Summer Heat, touting its success in cracking down on violent crime.

In an Oct. 8 statement, the FBI’s Baltimore office announced 224 arrests during the operation, including making 62 drug seizures and recovering 17 weapons.

FBI Houston announced the arrest of 64 individuals, recovering 65 weapons and seizing more than 85 kilos of cocaine and 28 kilos of fentanyl. The agency’s Cleveland office revealed it has made 125 arrests during Summer Heat.

Democrat Opposition, Arresting Criminal Illegals

Trump’s decision to deploy the National Guard in cities has faced criticism from Democratic lawmakers.

Earlier this month, a group of Democratic senators issued a joint statement warning against what they called “illegal deployments,” according to an Oct. 7 statement from Sen. Alex Padilla’s (D-Calif.) office.

They accused Trump of “stretching the limits” of presidential authority beyond its breaking point and pushing the country closer to authoritarianism.

“Whether in Los Angeles, Chicago, or Portland, the Trump Administration continues fabricating claims of chaos and crime on American streets to justify his false assertions that there is a ‘need’ to deploy troops into our cities—all while literally defunding our police by cutting funding that helps local law enforcement make our cities safer,” the lawmakers said.

Meanwhile, the Trump administration’s drive has led to more than 480,000 criminal illegal aliens being arrested over a nine-month period, Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem said in an Oct. 20 post on X.

She said that 70 percent of these arrested individuals have either been convicted or have pending charges.

What law enforcement has achieved under Trump is “nothing short of extraordinary,” Noem said.

In an Oct. 20 statement, DHS detailed a new measure at the southern border to deter illegal immigration into the United States.

Operation River Wall is aimed at securing the Rio Grande region against illegals, narco-terrorists, and other criminal activity at the border, the department said.

The Coast Guard will mobilize more than 100 boats and numerous personnel to secure the roughly 260 miles of the Rio Grande Valley.

“President Trump delivered the most secure southern border in U.S. history in record time, and now, our goal is to make sure it stays that way for the long run,” Noem said.

“The men and women of the U.S. Coast Guard are experts at defending America’s maritime borders–they have been doing that with honor, respect, and devotion to duty since 1790. Now, Coast Guard Forces Rio Grande and Operation River Wall will be a force multiplier in defending against illegal immigration.”

DHS said that for five straight months, no illegal immigrant has been released into the United States.

Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

President Trump said on Monday that he doesn’t think China wants to invade Taiwan and expressed optimism about reaching a trade deal with Beijing despite his recent threat to increase tariffs in response to China’s rare earth export restrictions.

“I think we’ll be just fine with China. China doesn’t want to do that,” Trump told reporters in response to a question about China invading Taiwan, according to Politico. “As it pertains to Taiwan, and that doesn’t mean it’s not the apple of his eye, because probably it is, but I don’t see anything happening.”

The president’s comments contradict claims from US War Secretary Pete Hegseth, who said earlier this year that the threat China poses to Taiwan could be “imminent.”

For years, the Pentagon has been claiming that China was preparing to be ready to invade by 2027, but the claim has never been confirmed by Beijing.

Trump is set to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping later this month on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation in South Korea, and he believes he can work out a deal before 100% tariffs on Chinese goods are supposed to take effect in November.

“I think when we finish our meetings in South Korea, China and I will have a really fair and really great trade deal together,” Trump said. He also said that he was planning to visit China in early 2026 after receiving an invitation from Beijing.

Watch rare moment that President Trump suggests to reporters that China had no designs on invading Taiwan:

US President Trump suggested to reporters that China had no designs on invading Taiwan but acknowledged he expected the issue to be on the agenda at a planned meeting with Xi on the sidelines of an economic conference in South Korea next week https://t.co/UmDWYHGzWr pic.twitter.com/yPWqqk5dk1

— Reuters (@Reuters) October 20, 2025

Trump made the comments on Monday while hosting Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese at the White House. While downplaying the threat of China, Trump also endorsed AUKUS, a military pact between the US, the UK, and Australia meant to counter Beijing that focuses on technology sharing and will arm Canberra with nuclear-powered submarines.

A United Nations panel on Tuesday condemned the Trump-ordered military build-up in the south Caribbean as well as what it called covert action which threatens the South American country’s sovereignty. It did this while invoking past 20th century history of CIA interventions in the region.

“These actions also violate the fundamental international obligations not to intervene in the domestic affairs or threaten to use armed force against another country,” the UN panel of independent rights experts said.

President Trump has repeatedly stated the aim is choke the flow of drugs from Latin America to the United States – but has also framed it as a war on ‘terrorism’ as well as mass migration of criminal elements.

“These moves are an extremely dangerous escalation with grave implications for peace and security in the Caribbean region,” the rights experts continued.

The panel then went so far as to accuse the US of engaging in extrajudicial killings on the high seas:

“Even if such allegations were substantiated, the use of lethal force in international waters without proper legal basis violates the international law of the sea and amounts to extrajudicial executions.”

“Preparations for covert or direct military action against another sovereign State constitute an even graver breach of the UN Charter,” the panel said, which included the special rapporteurs on extrajudicial executions and on protecting human rights while countering terrorism.

“The long history of external interventions in Latin America must not be repeated,” the stated added. “The international community must stand firm in defending the rule of law, dialogue, and the peaceful settlement of disputes.”

At least 27 people have been killed in about a half-dozen drone strikes. The US has labeled them ‘narco-terrorists’ – but little is known as to their identifies. War Secretary Hegseth and Secretary of State Rubio have positively cheered the military action – often posting videos of the boats being blown up.

Below: President Nicolas Maduro blasts the Trump Admin for approving CIA operations in Venezuela to attack his government, and lists just a few examples of US-backed coups in Latin America…

A speech they won’t show you on US corporate media:

Venezuela’s🇻🇪 President Nicolas Maduro blasts the Trump Administration for approving CIA operations in Venezuela to attack his government, and lists just a few examples of US-backed coups in Latin America pic.twitter.com/X5Vxak9jef

— Going Underground (@GUnderground_TV) October 17, 2025

It at least a couple of cases, they were Colombian or Ecuadorean nationals, but Washington has still said it is ultimately the Maduro government overseeing and facilitating this illegal trade.

Venezuela has put its military on high alert, and has even organized citizen militias, but the armed forces’ strength and weaponry is miniscule compared to that of the Pentagon – and it’s even weak by comparison to other global south countries.

By Irina Slav of OilPrice.com,

Japan will base any decisions about energy imports on its national interests, the country’s trade minister Yoji Muto has said, following suggestions from the Trump administration that Japan suspends all purchases of Russian oil and gas.

“Since the invasion of Ukraine, Japan has been steadily reducing its dependence on Russian energy,” Muto told media earlier today, as quoted by Reuters, following a meeting between U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato, at which Bessent urged Kato to stop buying Russian oil and gas.

In a sign of conformity with is European G7 peers, Japan in September lowered a price cap on Russian crude from $60 to $47.60 although it was more of a token gesture than anything else—Japan has a waiver from the price cap due to the essential nature of Russian oil for its energy security, per Japanese government officials.

“We recognise that LNG from Sakhalin-2 plays an extremely important role in Japan’s energy security,” Trade Minister Muto also said, adding that it accounted for 3% of Japan’s electricity generation.

While small as a percentage, the amount is likely not insignificant in absolute terms, given the size of Japan’s economy.

The Trump administration has embarked on a pressure campaign against all large importers of Russian hydrocarbons on the grounds that depriving Russia of energy export revenues would deprive it of the financial means to continue fighting the Ukrainian forces. Yet it is unlikely that the campaign will succeed as planned, even with the deployment of stick-and-carrot approach that President Trump has chosen in his dealings with the two top buyers of Russian oil and gas, China and India.

However, sanctions and price swings on international markets have already affected Russian energy export revenues in a negative way, which has failed to change anything about Moscow’s goals in what it calls a special military operation and has had zero effect on developments on the battlefield.

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

During an interview with Univision, Colombian President Gustavo Petro threatened to “take out” President Trump after he called Petro “an illegal drug leader.”

There are heightened tensions between the U.S. and Colombia after Trump took out a narco boat, killing a Colombian national who they claim was just a fisherman, but who had a lengthy criminal record.

Colombia has recalled its ambassador to the U.S. and the U.S. State Department has revoked Petro’s visa, primarily owing to the fact that after the U.N. General Assembly in New York City, he went to speak at a pro-Palestinian rally and called on U.S. troops to disobey orders.

During the Univision interview, Petro said that if Trump won’t change, the solution is to “take out Trump,” and loudly snapped his fingers for emphasis.

“Humanity has a first offramp, and it is to change Trump in various ways,” he said in Spanish, adding that “The easiest way may be through Trump himself–the easiest. If not, take out Trump.”

JUST IN: Colombia’s President Petro wraps his Univision interview by saying that if @realDonaldTrump won’t change, the solution is to “get rid of Trump” pic.twitter.com/JzRYHGPIzX

— Jorge Bonilla (@BonillaJL) October 21, 2025

The interviewer, who also happens to be the President of Univision remarked afterward “I’m leaving more worried than when I arrived.”

Me voy más preocupado de lo que llegué

— Daniel Coronell (@DCoronell) October 21, 2025

In a lengthy post Sunday, Trump blasted Petro, urging that “President Gustavo Petro, of Colombia, is an illegal drug leader strongly encouraging the massive production of drugs, in big and small fields, all over Colombia.”

“It has become the biggest business in Colombia, by far, and Petro does nothing to stop it, despite large scale payments and subsidies from the USA that are nothing more than a long term rip off of America,” Trump continued. 

The President further stated that “AS OF TODAY, THESE PAYMENTS, OR ANY OTHER FORM OF PAYMENT, OR SUBSIDIES, WILL NO LONGER BE MADE TO COLOMBIA. The purpose of this drug production is the sale of massive amounts of product into the United States, causing death, destruction, and havoc.”

“Petro, a low rated and very unpopular leader, with a fresh mouth toward America, better close up these killing fields immediately, or the United States will close them up for him, and it won’t be done nicely,” Trump asserted, signing off with his usual  “Thank you for your attention to this matter! President Donald J. Trump.”

This is a mask-off moment where Petro tells the world his true alliance is with the cartels.

Popularly, in America, it will have a galvanizing effect. Americans don’t like foreigners telling us what to do. It’s a knee-jerk contrarian reaction.

— J6_Matt_da_Silva_the_most_famous_Matt_da_Silva (@EMassSurvivor) October 21, 2025

Get rid of the President of the United States? Sounds like a threat from Colombia 🇨🇴 Narco aligned President against President Trump & the United States.

— Jeff Wright (@1991Wolfpack) October 21, 2025

Sounds like a direct threat.

Perhaps we need to take the threat seriously.

— Jim Collins (@JimCollinsJr) October 21, 2025

If Colombia’s President Petro won’t change, the solution is to get rid of Colombia.

— gmwaid (@gmwaid_71) October 21, 2025

* * *

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan on Tuesday referred former CIA director John Brennan to the Justice Department for prosecution, alleging that Brennan made false statements to Congress about how the 2017 intelligence assessment on Russian election interference handled material from the so-called Steele dossier.

In a five-page referral letter dated today, Jordan argues that Brennan’s sworn May 11, 2023 testimony conflicted with declassified records the committee says now show the dossier was not only reviewed by the CIA but also included – via an annex – in the intelligence community’s assessment. The letter invokes 18 U.S.C. § 1001, which makes it a crime to “knowingly and willfully” make materially false statements to Congress.

To wit – Brennan told lawmakers that “the CIA was not involved at all with the dossier” and that the agency was “very much opposed to having any reference or inclusion of the Steele dossier in the Intelligence Community Assessment.” But Jordan’s letter points to what it calls “Annex A” of the Intelligence Community Assessment (ICA), which it describes as a “two-page annex summarizing the Steele reporting” and drafted “in coordination with the [FBI]” under a joint decision by the CIA and FBI.

The broader context brings into focus the 2017 ICA, released Jan. 6 under the auspices of the Director of National Intelligence, concluding that Russia interfered in the 2016 U.S. presidential election and developed a preference for Donald Trump. Earlier reviews by the Senate Intelligence Committee and the Justice Department’s inspector general found that the dossier was included in a classified annex to the ICA – not in its main body – and that while the FBI and CIA debated how to handle it.

Jordan claims that the dossier’s language is contained in the main body of the ICA and that Brennan personally overruled CIA analysts who raised concerns about the dossier’s reliability – quoting an internal exchange attributed to Brennan in which he allegedly asked, “Yes, but doesn’t it ring true?”

According to Brennan: “my bottomline is that I believe that the information warrants inclusion in the report.”

The referral calls Brennan’s lies “material” and part of a “pattern of Brennan’s willingness to lie to Congress” – pointing to Brennan’s earlier 2017 House Intelligence Committee appearance in which he said, “the dossier was not in any way used in the Intelligence Community Assessment” (a statement the letter says lies outside the statute of limitations but is relevant context).

For the Justice Department, the decision whether to open a criminal investigation hinges on determining that Brennan knowingly made false statements, and that the incorrect information was material – i.e., it could have affected the committee’s or government’s decision-making. 

For his part, Brennan has consistently defended the ICA’s core conclusion – that Moscow intervened in 2016 – and has maintained the CIA did not use unverified intelligence from the Steele reporting as the foundation for the assessment’s judgments. Yet, according to Jordan’s letter, “Ultimately, according to documents declassified by the Trump Administration, the decision to incorporate information from the Steele dossier in the ICA “was jointly made by the Directors of CIA and FBI.“

Badly beating down oil jumped, if only briefly, on a Bloomberg report that the Trump administration plans to buy 1 million barrels for the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve, taking advantage of low oil prices to begin filing the depleted stockpile.

The Energy Department intends to announce Tuesday that it’s seeking oil for delivery in December and January, using a portion of the $171 million from President Donald Trump’s signature tax and spending law that provided for crude purchases, according to an agency official.

West Texas Intermediate, which is down about 30% since its peak in mid-January and traded at about $58 a barrel on Tuesday, near the lowest since 2021, staged a modest bounce, only to sink after the kneejerk reaction was processed. 

Trump has vowed to refill the oil reserve, which has a maximum capacity of about 700 million barrels. It currently has about 408 million barrels, but the administration has limited funds to buy more. Unfortunately just 1 million here and there won’t do anything in the grand scheme of things; meanwhile China has been aggressively adding millions of barrels every month to its SPR, and according to many analysts has been the main reason preventing far lower oil prices. Here is Reuters on the topic:

China is building oil reserve sites at a rapid clip as part of a campaign to boost crude stockpiles that increased in urgency after Russia’s Ukraine invasion upended global energy flows and has accelerated this year, according to public data, traders and industry experts.

State oil companies including Sinopec and CNOOC will add at least 169 million barrels of storage across 11 sites during 2025 and 2026, according to public sources including domestic news reports, government reports and company websites.

Of that, 37 million barrels of capacity has been built, the sources show. Once completed, the new sites will be able to store two weeks of China’s net crude imports, according to Reuters calculations based on Chinese trade data, a significant volume as China is by far the world’s biggest oil importer.

Beijing’s reserve-building – S&P Global Commodity Insight last month estimated China had stockpiled an average of 530,000 barrels per day thus far in 2025 – is soaking up surplus global supply and supporting prices under pressure as the OPEC+ producers group winds down production cuts. Traders and consultancies say they expect the stockpiling, fuelled by prices recently below $70 per barrel, to continue at least through the first quarter of 2026.

The reserve’s levels were sharply reduced under President Autopen, when gasoline prices spiked following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The drawdown of some 180 million barrels in 2022 cost about $280 million and delayed maintenance, according to the Energy Department.

Bids for the Energy Department’s 1 million barrel solicitation for delivery to the Bayou Choctaw site are due no later than 11:00 a.m. CT on Oct. 28, the official said. The purchases will be through a spot-price-indexed contract.

With stocks back near record highs (having recovered quickly from their last Trump-driven plunge), it appears the hubris of market strength rubbed off again on the President as he dropped the following tape-bombs once again raising the rhetoric on any possible trade deal with China:

• *TRUMP: MAYBE MEETING WON’T HAPPEN WITH XI

• *TRUMP: I WANT XI TO HAVE A GOOD DEAL FOR CHINA

• *TRUMP: EXPECT TO MAKE GOOD DEAL WITH XI

• *TRUMP: WE BUILT CHINA’S MILITARY WITH ALL MONEY WE LOST

Sending stocks tumbling, sending Nasdaq into the red…

Interestingly, the comments came just as Nasdaq reached back to unchanged since the President’s last tweet-driven plunge…

Gold rallied a little while bitcoin fell on the news…

What kind of drawdown will we need this time to pressure the TACO trade move to come back?

Update (1232ET): Europe and the UK are discussing a 12-point plan to end the Russia-Ukraine war, Bloomberg reports. 

• The war would end along current battle lines
• Trump administration ‘Peace Board’ would oversee
• Ukraine would receive security guarantees and reconstruction funds
• Sanctions on Russia would be gradually lifted
• Russia has to contribute to Ukraine reconstruction funds
• ‘No clear date’ set for meeting between Trump and Putin 

The plan would end the war along current battle lines – a counter to Vladimir Putin’s demand that Kiev surrender more territory in return for a peace deal. 

If adopted, the Trump administration would oversee implementation of the proposed plan, according to people familiar with the discussions. Assuming the ceasefire holds and both sides commit to halting further advances, there would be a prisoner exchange, as well as ‘all deported children’ (what?), while Ukraine would receive security guarantees and reconstruction funds, along with a pathway to rapidly join the European Union. 

In exchange, sanctions on Russia would be gradually lifted, and around $300 billion in frozen central bank reserves would be returned to Moscow – if the Kremlin agrees to contribute to Ukraine’s post-war reconstruction.

Meanwhile, as noted below the Kremlin pushed back against CNN claims that a Trump-Putin meeting had been postponed, but acknowledged that no date has been set.

“We cannot postpone what has not been agreed upon,” said Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov in a statement to TASS state news early Tuesday, adding “Everything is in progress, internal work is ongoing. As new information becomes available, we will keep you informed.” 

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov echoed Ryabkov regarding the Trump-Putin summit in Budapest, saying “You can’t postpone something that hasn’t been agreed upon.” 

Developing…

*  *  *

The Kremlin on Tuesday has said that while its stance since Presidents Putin and Trump met in Alaska in August has remain unchanged, European countries are busy seeking to thwart peace efforts.

Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov said at a briefing that the European allies are actively encouraging Kiev to keep pursuing a solution militarily. “Right now, Europeans are not really focused on peace and are doing little to achieve it,” he said.

Peskov also cited reports from the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service that European NATO members are “continuing extensive preparations for a potential armed conflict with Russia,” according to TASS.

In parallel statements Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said that Russia’s special military operation “is fulfilling its goals” and that “there is no doubt that it will conclude successfully.”

He then batted down President Zelensky’s current push to freeze the conflict before peace talks can be held. Moscow has long said it is not willing to do a temporary truce, seeing in this a Ukrainian ploy to regroup and rearm before a comprehensive settlement can be achieved.

“An immediate ceasefire, the talk of which has suddenly reappeared, would mean only that a large part of Ukraine remains under the Nazi regime’s control, while the need is to resolve the issue at its core and address its underlying causes,” Lavrov stressed.

Zelensky came off his Friday White House meeting with Trump saying that the US President is in agreement with him on this point.

But Lavrov has countered, “I would like to officially stress that Russia has not altered its stance compared to the understandings reached during the Putin-Trump extended talks in Alaska.”

He too laid much blame on the Europeans for seeking to sabotage talks, as a meeting is under preparation to be hosted in Budapest between Trump and Putin. Lavrov continued:

The desire of the Kiev regime’s “European patrons” to insist on a ceasefire in exchange for a comprehensive settlement of the Ukrainian conflict runs counter to the agreements reached in Alaska: “This approach contradicts what Presidents Trump and Putin agreed upon in Anchorage, which was to focus on the root causes.”

At the moment, President Trump is being widely accused in mainstream media of essentially selling out the Ukrainians and siding with Putin related to potential future terms of a peace settlement:

Behind the scenes, Trump had pushed Zelenskyy to give up swaths of territory to Russia, two people briefed on the discussion told Reuters. “Let it be cut the way it is,” Trump told reporters on Air Force One on Sunday. “It’s cut up right now,” he said, adding that you can “leave it the way it is right now”.

“They can negotiate something later on down the line,” he said. But for now, both sides of the conflict should “stop at the battle line – go home, stop fighting, stop killing people”.

This would indeed give Russia effective control of some 20% or a little more of Ukraine, and the idea is that the battlelines would be ‘frozen’ as a more comprehensive deal is hammered out.

Meanwhile MSM is piling on too, with several negative reports on efforts to get Putin and Trump at the table again in Budapest:

“It was also not immediately clear what impact the tabling of the pre-meeting between Lavrov and Rubio would ultimately have on the anticipated Trump-Putin summit in Budapest, Hungary.” —CNN

Rubio’s call with Lavrov did not go well; Rubio is expected to recommend the Budapest summit not go forward next week. https://t.co/22WvSPN87c pic.twitter.com/stv3mzOWAE

— Michael Weiss (@michaeldweiss) October 21, 2025

It could be that Trump is finally getting realistic about the conflict – the Russians are not going to pack up and leave the battle lines, and territorial concessions are what will end the war, whether Kiev likes it or not.

Russia seems to be trying to be careful to play nice with Trump and not offend him at this sensitive juncture of Moscow-Washington bilateral talks, while laying all the blame for any stall in negotiations on the more hawkish Europeans.

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Today has an embarrassment of riches in news; and a poverty of takes of how it all links together.

Bloomberg claims the ‘’Widow-Maker’ Trade Becomes World Beater as Japanese Bonds Sink’. The 2025 trend in JGB yields, if now off recent highs, shows a generational shift taking place, which could accelerate following the emergence of Takaichi as PM.

• Similar worries remain from the US to “Où sont my crown jewels?” France to EM, even if yields moved lower yesterday on safe-haven bids as the global internet wobbled.

After Trump told President Zelenskyy to make a peace deal or be “destroyed” by Russia, which is close to calling up another 2m men to fight, Zelenskyy tried to paint their meeting as “positive.” The EU is still seeking to secure the use of Russian assets for Ukraine and more sanctions on Moscow: yet the White House is stalling a G7 plan for the former and the Senate just paused its Russia Sanctions Bill.

• Again, the US is aiming for a Noxin (reverse Nixon) deal or a war freeze: Europe wants more, but doesn’t seem willing to pay up, and just agreed to phase out Russian oil purchases by January 2028, meaning it will fund attacks on Ukraine for another two years.

Politico also notes ‘Here comes the EU’s first anti-far-right European Council’, arguing “Housing, social media regulation, migration, and defence spending are all being used by the political mainstream to curb the march of populism” – but doesn’t that all sound populist? The same press also says ‘New EU members could join without full voting rights’: really?

• Europe’s internal flux matches its immediate external environment – it’s not business as usual.

In the Middle East, Iran’s Khamenei rejected a Trump offer of talks, again, and denied that the US had destroyed Iranian nuclear capabilities. Is that playing with fire on top of a lot of oil? Trump also floated a renewal of Gaza fighting, but said Hams still has chance to “behave”, as and VP Vance heads to Israel today as part of efforts to shore up the ceasefire.

• Overall, momentum continues to build towards a new Middle East where oil stays firmly priced in US dollars.

In LatAm, Argentina’s peso weakened despite the US officially agreeing a $20bn swapline as the Wall Street Journal reported ‘US Banks Are Hunting for Collateral to Back $20bn Argentina Bailout’ (WSJ) such as “assets or guarantees from the US that would back a private-sector loan to support Argentine President Javier Milei” – recall Argentine elections are this Sunday; Bolivia elected centrist Rodrigo Paz as president, ending decades of socialist rule, and restarting relations with the US after 20 years; ‘Trump doubles down on Colombia crackdown, calls Petro ‘lunatic,’ vows to end all US payments over drugs’, as Fox news put it, with a new, higher US tariff rate on Colombia due imminently; and another Venezuelan narco-boat was hit by the Pentagon.

• In short, there’s more Monroe than in ‘Some Like it Hot’ – and things could get hot as the US reasserts its role in the Western hemisphere while pushing Chinese, Russia, and Iranian influence out.

In the Asia-Pacific, Trump backed the AUKUS defence deal and will push to expedite nuclear sub deliveries. The US Navy Secretary wants to clear up some of the “ambiguity”, so AUKUS is a “win-win for everybody.” In parallel, ‘‘We’ll have so much’: Trump taunts China with Albanese rare earths deal’ (AFR), as the White House struck a supply deal and claimed Australia will invest $1 trillion in the US by 2035 via its superfunds.

• Is there any need for discussion on whose side Oz has chosen, geopolitically? However, one wonders if this will soon involve it spending 5% of GDP on defence, and/or necessitate a Fed swapline, as South Korea has floated?

Trump expects to discuss Taiwan when he meets Xi, and while he predicts a trade deal, he made clear the extra 100% China tariff will hit if Beijing won’t buy US soybeans and sell it rare earths… exports of which just slumped in data released yesterday. USTR Greer also stated China is trying to pressure foreign firms from investing in the US to disrupt supply chains, mentioning shipbuilding in particular, but “Intimidation won’t stop us from rebuilding.” Indeed, as the US Supreme Court was told ‘Trump tariffs are an illegal $3 trillion tax’, the New York Times notes ‘Hundreds of Korean Workers Were Detained by ICE. Hyundai is Not Deterred’, and that new factories really are springing up, while the White House said the $100,000 H-1B visa fee will be paid by applicants living abroad.

• Is this “because markets” messaging that screams ‘trade deal’?

The Financial Times meanwhile takes a strong editorial stance today (‘The boardroom bet on Trump’s industrial policy’) and argues “CEOs would be wise to avoid staking too much on the US president’s pet projects” because Biden’s IRA was reversed and China is seeing deflation due to too much production – as if that’s a current US problem!

On the other hand, China’s key fourth plenum continues. The Xinhua media release note: “Standing at a new historical starting point, let us unite more closely around the Party Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at its core, comprehensively implement Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era, inspire a spirit of striving for every minute and never slacking off, and gather the tremendous strength of unity and courage to forge ahead. We will work towards a blueprint that will be followed through to the end, generation after generation…”

• Is this “because markets” messaging that screams ‘trade deal’?

Also of note after yesterday’s Chinese GDP data, the South China Morning Post yesterday asked: “As China drafts its next 5-year plan, is GDP still the magic number?” where “With the fourth plenum set to outline China’s long-term plans, analysts consider more benchmarks than GDP for ‘high-quality development’ era”. When even China is starting to ask, ‘What is GDP *for*?’ rather than just “4.9% or 5%?”, it underlines how out-of-the-loop most “because markets” Western thinking and analysis still is.

Relatedly, the SCMP also says ‘China’s AI plan offers citizens ‘infinite hope’ with robot companions and kids by 2035’ – “But a Chinese expert warns it could lead to mass unemployment, polarisation, reduction in marriage rates and ‘erosion of family ethics’”. The West doesn’t seem to be offering its citizens much hope in some eyes, let alone ‘infinite’, and it can’t even agree on how to use AI and industrial robots in its factories yet, let alone in relationships.

• Who does this suggest is ahead, and behind. in this critical geoeconomic area? And beyond ‘buy all the things!’ aiming for an embarrassment of riches, is this disruptive trend inflationary or deflationary, or both – and what do we do about changes to society on this scale at this kind of speed? We have an absolute poverty of takes on this in particular.