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It’s Affordability, Stupid?

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It’s Affordability, Stupid?

Authored by Victor Davis Hanson via American Greatness,

The recent Democratic cry of “affordability” is ironic in many ways.

The left-wing narrative of Trump hyperinflation was one of desperation and came only after previous memes had failed to resonate.

The 2025 generic “dictator,” “fascist,” and “Nazi” smear points never helped the left much.

Nor did the nihilist government shutdown over the “Obamacare crisis” work other than perhaps to depress fourth-quarter GDP.

Nor did the earlier spring 2025 melodramatic predictions of an impending “Trade War,” “Recession,” and stock-market “Meltdown resonate.”

Nor did the “Gestapo,” “SS,” and “Nazi” ICE smears become effective talking points.

The “illegal orders” and “unconstitutional use of force” in destroying narcotraffickers’ shipments in transit of lethal drugs were mostly empty rhetoric.

Then the Democrats got smart and remembered how Trump had won in 2024.

He ran and triumphed on pointing out that gasoline had gone sky-high under Biden, who drained the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, put federal oil and gas lands off-limits, and wasted hundreds of billions on green subsidies.

Biden entered office with Trump’s national gas average of $2.39 a gallon and promptly doubled it to $5—until it settled down to a four-year average of $3.35-40 a gallon. That was roughly 35-40 cents higher than the present $3.00 Trump national average.

Biden’s four-year inflation had cumulatively hit 21.5% and it climbed much higher when staples like key foods, insurance, housing, energy, cars, etc., were tabulated separately.

Trump thundered that he had left Biden with a 2020 near-historically low 1.2-4% inflation rate—and then Biden’s four years had more than quadrupled it to an average of 5.2% per year.

In any case, in the 2024 campaign, the case was made that Biden had added $8 trillion to the national debt while making staples unaffordable to the middle class. Trump easily won on that economics/affordability issue.

The affordability case was seemingly closed, given that the Democrats never had an answer for Biden’s misery indices and thus turned to the other smears mentioned above.

But then a funny thing happened.

Trump had entered office with a monthly inflation rate of 3%, but did not somehow immediately lower it.

And the rate remains. After ten months of Trump’s tenure, it was still at the same 3%.

Yet suddenly, the left cried, “Affordability!”

Apparently, Trump was culpable because in months he had yet to undo all the damage Biden had inflicted over four years, despite the fact that Trump’s inflation was already 2.2 points less than the Biden four-year yearly average—and headed downward.

But the public was exhausted by high prices and wanted Trump not just to lower dramatically the average Biden inflation rate but also to reduce the Biden 21.5 aggregate inflation and to do so immediately.

The Trump team did not believe anyone would believe this yarn for a number of reasons.

One, no one could credibly believe that the party responsible for hyperinflation could dare to blame its successor for not immediately, in ten months, cleaning up the mess that Democrats had wrought over four years.

Two, Trump had enacted a series of dramatic initiatives that may soon not only lower inflation but could create a veritable boom from some $10 trillion in promised foreign investment. More deregulation, extended tax cuts, and additional reductions are in the big beautiful bill.

The administration has been fast-tracking new federal fossil fuel leasing, pipeline construction, and incentives for greater production of oil and gas, and massive natural gas exports. The borders are closed. Two million illegal aliens have left the U.S., lessening social welfare costs and increasing labor opportunities for U.S. citizens.

By year’s end, some $200-300 billion in 2025 tariff revenue will be collected, coupled with increased domestic opportunities for U.S. business expansion.

So, apparently, the Trump administration thought that the public was aware that mid- to long-term remedies were underway that would fuel the economy in mid-2025.

Thus, did they assume “affordability” was not yet really an issue and needed little explanation, given the good news to come was already self-evident?

Or, they were so consumed with foreign affairs—and indeed, dramatic successes abroad—that they thought such good news would naturally become force multipliers of the implicitly bright economic forecasts.

Indeed, efforts to end the Ukraine war, the elimination of the immediate threat of an Iranian nuclear bomb, and a ceasefire in the Middle East were in sharp contrast to the prior four years, when two theater wars broke out on Biden’s watch after the disastrous misadventure in Kabul.

Finally, all Israeli hostages who were still alive returned. Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Iran’s military have all suffered terrible damage.

Each month, there seems to be a new announcement of more favorable trade agreements with major commercial partners.

Once dismal military recruitment is now at a historic high. There is not a reduction but a veritable end of all illegal immigration.

Trump tried to fashion cease-fires in wars all over the world: the Congo-Rwanda, India-Pakistan, Cambodia-Thailand, Azerbaijan-Armenia, and Ethiopia-Egypt.

So why did Trump people not see the left gaining some traction on the affordability issue?

The administration has so far not fully absorbed three realities.

  • One, their likely successful economic stimuli and reforms will not kick in fully until mid-2026. So they needed to argue for a little more patience or to explain in detail exactly how, why, and when the economy will correct the Biden catastrophe.

  • Two, they did not pound home enough the difference between Trump’s economic legacy in 2020, the ensuing Biden four-year failure, and now his own ten-month new efforts to build upon what he had once accomplished.

  • Third, even foreign successes, ironically, can detract from the economy. True, good coverage of a Trump ascendant abroad helped him at home. But when the economy is demagogued as “unaffordable,” Trump’s attention overseas is used as proof that he doesn’t care about those at home.

In other words, in an election cycle, a presidential Nobel Peace Prize is worth less than a one percent inflation rate.

There is a year left before the midterms. If the Democrats win the House, they will stall the entire Trump agenda. They will impeach him in their first month. And they will subpoena and wage lawfare against all major Trump appointees in hopes of either bankrupting them or putting them in jail.

Obviously, to continue the MAGA counter-revolution, all emphasis should be on the economy. Every policy initiative should be discussed in terms of its economic utility, from ending illegal immigration to recording oil pumping to foreign investment.

Detail matters.

Trashing Biden is far less effective than comparing the actual data of his four-year averages with Trump’s own first-term stats so far: gas prices, the inflation rate, illegal entries, deportations, foreign investment, and other economic indicators.

Foreign policy must be presented in domestic and preferably economic terms: blowing up a narco-trafficking boat saves thousands of lives.

Providing NATO leadership offers leverage with the far more hostile EU—as in “decide whether as Europe-NATO you wish for an American presence, or as Europe-EU you do not like us and wish us gone—but not both.”

What is the dollar effect of deportation on job growth and higher wages for Americans, or on vastly reduced entitlement costs?

In sum, the economy is already better than Biden’s yearly averages. Events are in play that will create substantial national wealth soon, which will make the middle class better off. And successes abroad translate to an enhanced economy at home.

But all that in a unified fashion has to be hammered home rather than assumed.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 12/17/2025 – 16:20

Wall Street’s $4 Quadrillion Backbone To Roll-Out Tokenized US Treasuries

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Wall Street’s $4 Quadrillion Backbone To Roll-Out Tokenized US Treasuries

Authored by Jesse Coghlan via CoinTelegraph.com,

The Depository Trust and Clearing Corporation said it is set to bring tokenized US Treasurys onchain, and plans to expand to a “broad spectrum” of assets in the future.

The DTCC said on Wednesday that it plans to “enable a subset of US Treasury securities” custodied at its subsidiary, the Depository Trust Company, to be minted on the Canton Network, a permissioned blockchain created by the fintech company Digital Asset.

“This collaboration creates a roadmap to bring real-world, high-value tokenization use cases to market, starting with US Treasury securities and eventually expanding to a broad spectrum of DTC-eligible assets across network providers,” said DTCC CEO Frank LaSalla.

The DTCC runs crucial market infrastructure for clearing, settlement and trading of US securities and reported that its subsidiaries processed $3.7 quadrillion in securities transactions last year.

Frank LaSalla speaking with CNBC’s “Crypto World” on Friday after receiving the SEC’s no-action letter. Source: YouTube

The company received a rare “no-action” letter from the Securities and Exchange Commission on Thursday that greenlit a securities tokenization service “on pre-approved blockchains for three years,” and confirmed that the agency won’t take enforcement action against DTCC if its product operates as described.

More securities to be tokenized

The trio is working to launch a minimum viable product in a controlled environment by the first half of 2026, and the DTCC stated that it will “increase the size and scope of the project in the months that follow based upon client interest.”

It added that the whole partnership roadmap between the three companies would “unfold over multiple years,” but for now it aims to provide access to “digitized financial instruments in a secure and regulated environment.”

The DTCC said last week that the SEC’s letter “applies to a defined set of highly liquid assets,” including US Treasury bills, bonds and notes, exchange-traded funds (ETF) tracking major indexes and the Russell 1000, which tracks the 1,000 largest public US companies.

The company added that it would also join the Canton Network’s governance and would take up the position of co-chair alongside Euroclear on the blockchain’s backing organization, the Canton Foundation.

Markets are moving onchain, but analyst expects a slow burn

SEC chair Paul Atkins said on Friday after his agency gave DTCC a no-action letter that the company’s initiative “marks an important step towards onchain capital markets.”

“US financial markets are poised to move onchain,” he said, adding the SEC “is prioritizing innovation and embracing new technologies to enable this onchain future.”

The same day, NYDIG global head of research Greg Cipolaro said that the tokenization of securities won’t immediately be a major boon to the crypto market, but that could change if tokenized assets are allowed to better integrate on blockchains.

Cipolaro said that traditional finance structures are still required on tokenized assets; their designs can “differ greatly,” and most are hosted on private blockchains like Canton, meaning not all can work with the wider decentralized financial system.

“In the future, one could see these RWAs being part of DeFi (composability), either as collateral for borrowing, an asset to be lent out, or for trading,” he added. “This will take time as technology develops, infrastructure is built out, and rules and regulations evolve.”

Tyler Durden
Wed, 12/17/2025 – 15:40

DOD Flirting With Aviation Disaster: 2nd Near-Collision With USAF Tanker Off Venezuela

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DOD Flirting With Aviation Disaster: 2nd Near-Collision With USAF Tanker Off Venezuela

Just one day after almost killing everyone aboard a passenger jet, the US Air Force narrowly dodged another near-disaster off the coast of Venezuela — this time with a business jet. For many, the two frightening incidents intensify a perception that the administration’s militarism against Venezuela is as reckless as it is unwarranted and unconstitutional.

Within a day of each other, two midair disasters nearly unfolded off Venezuela involving USAF refueling tankers, like this KC-45 Pegasus (USAF Photo)

For those who missed our reporting on the first near-disaster, on Saturday, a JetBlue Airbus A320 heading to New York’s JFK Airport from the Caribbean island of Curaçao was forced to take evasive action when the pilots suddenly found themselves staring down an approaching USAF refueling tanker at the same altitude and only two or three miles away.

“It was an air-to-air refueler from the United States Air Force…We had to stop our climb and actually descend to avoid hitting them,” the JetBlue pilot told air traffic controllers. “They don’t have their transponder turned on. It’s outrageous.” (A transponder is a device that helps make aircraft appear on the radars of controllers and other aircraft.) The controller replied, “I don’t have anything on my scope.” Here’s a reconstruction of that incident, overlaying radar and audio: 

Now comes news that, on Saturday, the passengers and pilots on a Dassault Falcon 900EX business jet heading to Miami from Aruba had their own brush with death via an Air Force tanker. In this case, an air traffic controller alerted the Falcon pilot and directed him to a new course: “Turn right heading 020. An unidentified traffic, 12 o’clock, closing 10 miles, level not known.”  

After spotting the aircraft, the rattled Falcon pilot informed the controller. “We just got that traffic. I don’t know how we didn’t get an RA for that,” he said, referring to a Resolution Advisory, a command generated by an on-board Traffic Alert and Collision Avoidance System (TCAS). “They were really close — and you turned us into them.” The controller explained that the unidentified craft “keep[s] turning irregular.” 

As it climbed out of Aruba, a Dassault 900EX like this one was almost destroyed by a KC-46 tanker operating off Venezuela

Trying to gather as much information as possible about the unidentified craft, the controller asked the Falcon pilot if he could discern its altitude or type. “Somewhere around 26 [thousand feet]. We were climbing right into him.. It was big, maybe like a triple-7, [767], something like that. It was a wide-body.” It’s not clear how CNN confirmed it was an Air Force tanker, but Russ Niles at AvBrief.com similarly concluded that it appeared to be a KC-46 tanker. While there’s no indication of how many were aboard the Falcon 900EX, it’s typically configured to carry 10 to 14 passengers.  

In November, the Federal Aviation Administration warned US carriers about potential dangers from “heightened military activity” at “all altitudes” in and around Venezuela. “Threats could pose a potential risk to aircraft at all altitudes, including during overflight, the arrival and departure phases of flight, and/or airports and aircraft on the ground,” the FAA said in a Notice to Airmen (NOTAM). In response, several airlines cancelled flights in and out of Venezuela. 

Seeking to rein in the administration’s widening military activity around Venezuela, resolutions are advancing in both the House and Senate that would bar the Pentagon from engaging in hostilities there without congressional approval. The House version, may be voted on as early as Thursday, counts Republicans Thomas Massie, Marjorie Taylor Greene and Don Bacon among its cosponsors. Republican Rand Paul helped introduce a similar measure in the Senate, saying, “The American people do not want to be dragged into endless war with Venezuela without public debate or a vote. We ought to defend what the Constitution demands: deliberation before war.”

At the urging of long-hawkish Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Trump has ordered many aggressive moves in and around Venezuela: 

  • Attacking boats purported to be carrying illicit drugs, killing at least 95 people. Compounding the controversy over using the military to summarily execute alleged drug offenders who likely weren’t even heading to the United States, at least one of the strikes included subsequent fire on survivors clinging to the wreckage. 
  • Ordering a “total and complete blockade” of all sanctioned oil tankers going into and out of Venezuela. That order on Tuesday came after last week’s interception and seizure of a tanker near the country’s coast, which prompted supertankers bound for Venezuela to make U-turns.  
  • Repeatedly threatening land warfare, recently telling reporters that, following on the boat attacks, “very soon we’re going to start doing it on land too.” 
  • Flying B-52 bombers near the coastline and F-18 fighters deep inside the Gulf of Venezuela. 
  • Reportedly authorizing covert operations to overthrow President Nicolas Maduro, seemingly betraying his campaign promises to be a “peace president” and to resist the Deep State’s long-running obsession with regime change.   

Tyler Durden
Wed, 12/17/2025 – 15:20

Gavin Newsom Singles Out CZ, Ross Ulbricht, Arthur Hayes As Trump’s “Criminal Cronies”

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Gavin Newsom Singles Out CZ, Ross Ulbricht, Arthur Hayes As Trump’s “Criminal Cronies”

Authored by Vismaya V via Decrypt.co,

California Governor Gavin Newsom has launched a website tracking what he calls President Donald Trump’s “criminal cronies,” a list that includes Trump himself alongside convicted drug lords, January 6 insurrectionists, and several prominent crypto figures who have received presidential pardons.

The tracker, unveiled Tuesday, spotlights Binance founder Changpeng Zhao, Silk Road creator Ross Ulbricht, and BitMEX co-founders Arthur Hayes, Benjamin Delo, Gregory Dwyer, and Samuel Reed, among the recipients of Trump’s pardons.

“Governor Newsom is driving crime down—and Donald Trump is pardoning drug lords and driving criminals into government,” Newsom’s office said in a statement announcing the website, alongside new data showing violent crime declining across California’s major cities.

The crypto-heavy pardon list comes amid mounting Democratic concerns about Trump’s crypto dealings and potential conflicts of interest, entangling U.S. governance with private crypto interests.

Newsom supports “responsible crypto and blockchain innovation while prioritizing consumer protection, not fraud,” according to his office, positioning California as a counterweight to what Democrats characterize as Trump’s alleged corruption.

The launch came the same week that Decrypt asked President Trump whether he would consider pardoning Samourai Wallet developer Keonne Rodriguez.

“I’ll look at it,” the president said, leaving open the possibility of further crypto-related pardons.

CZ’s “full and unconditional” pardon

Changpeng Zhao’s “full and unconditional pardon” came after pleading guilty to money laundering charges for allowing illicit funds, including money flowing to “terrorists, cybercriminals, and child abusers,” through Binance’s platform, said Newsom.

Newsom’s site notes that Binance “was an important supporter of the Trump family’s own business,” World Liberty Financial, and mocks Trump’s claim that he doesn’t know Zhao, joking, “Maybe Sneaky Pete used the autopen while Trump slept?”

Last week, World Liberty Financial’s USD1 stablecoin became part of Binance’s core infrastructure, with Binance denying any connection between Zhao’s pardon and the expanded integration of USD1, calling such suggestions “false and defamatory.”

Silk Road and BitMEX

Ross Ulbricht, the founder of Silk Road, the now-shuttered dark web marketplace that facilitated over $214 million in illegal drug sales (often via Bitcoin), received a pardon for his 2015 conviction on narcotics and money-laundering conspiracy charges.

The BitMEX co-founders all received pardons in March after pleading guilty to violating the Bank Secrecy Act. Trump also pardoned HDR Global Trading Limited, the corporation that owns the cryptocurrency exchange.

Decrypt has contacted the White House, CZ and Arthur Hayes for additional comment.

Democrats vs. Trump

Newsom’s site highlights what it calls Trump’s “crypto corruption,” claiming that the president’s family has “raked in at least $800 million dollars in crypto” since the start of 2025. The site also alleges that Trump’s SEC suspended an investigation into Tron founder Justin Sun “just weeks after Sun invested $75 million into Trump’s crypto company World Liberty Financial,” as well as accusing the president of “cashing in” on his TRUMP meme coin by offering tours of the White House to investors.

This isn’t the first time that Newsom has shone a spotlight on Trump’s crypto activities; in September, the California Governor said on the “Pivot” podcast he would release his own meme coin called “Trump Corruption Coin,” mocking the president’s TRUMP meme coin.

His website joins a widening chorus of Democratic criticism aimed at Trump’s connections with crypto projects.

Senator Elizabeth Warren’s letter this week to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Attorney General Pam Bondi highlighted decentralized exchange PancakeSwap’s role in facilitating trading of USD1, and its reported use by North Korean backers to launder stolen crypto funds.

Meanwhile, House Democrats recently labeled the Trump White House “the world’s most corrupt crypto startup operation,” citing reports that the family earned more than $800 million in crypto ventures this year.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 12/17/2025 – 15:00

Ford To Lay Off 1,600 Workers As Kentucky EV Battery Plant Pivots To Data Center Storage

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Ford To Lay Off 1,600 Workers As Kentucky EV Battery Plant Pivots To Data Center Storage

Ford will lay off all 1,600 workers at its newly built electric-vehicle battery plant in Glendale, Kentucky, as it pivots away from EV production and converts the facility to make battery-storage systems for data centers, utilities, and renewable-energy developers, according to WDRB.

The company said Monday it plans to begin shipping battery energy-storage systems from plants in Kentucky and Michigan in late 2027, calling the move a shift toward “higher-return opportunities,” according to the Wall Street Journal. Ford estimates the transition away from its EV strategy will cost $19.5 billion and disclosed that it has lost about $13 billion on EVs since 2023.

“Instead of plowing billions into the future knowing these large EVs will never make money, we are pivoting,” CEO Jim Farley told the Journal.

In a video message to employees, Michael Adams, CEO of BlueOval SK—the former Ford–SK On joint venture—said the move would mark “the end of all BlueOval SK positions in Kentucky.” Workers will continue to receive pay and benefits for 60 days, though no firm layoff date was given. Ford said it plans to hire about 2,100 workers for the revamped facility and that displaced employees will be eligible to apply.

WDRB writes that the Hardin County project was originally pitched as a $5.8 billion investment to supply batteries for Ford’s EVs, including the F-150 Lightning. But slowing EV demand, excess capacity, and changes in emissions policy forced a rethink. Ford recently canceled production of the electric pickup and paused work on a second battery plant next door, which remains unfinished.

Industry analysts say the problem goes deeper than demand. “They built the wrong kind of battery and the wrong chemistry for that here in Kentucky,” said WSJ automotive reporter Chris Otts, adding that retooling the plant requires a full overhaul and years of lead time.

Ford and SK On formally ended their partnership last week. Ford will take full ownership of the Kentucky plants, while SK On will run a nearly completed Tennessee facility focused on similar energy-storage products. Under Ford’s revised plan, the Glendale site is expected to operate at just 23% of its original planned capacity when production begins in 2027.

Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear said the state is renegotiating its incentive agreement with Ford and prioritizing support for displaced workers through job fairs and other resources. Republican state lawmakers representing the area said they would closely monitor Ford’s commitments as the project shifts toward grid-scale energy storage.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 12/17/2025 – 14:40

Trump Orders Full Blockade Of Sanctioned Oil Tankers Off ‘Terrorist’ Venezuela

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Trump Orders Full Blockade Of Sanctioned Oil Tankers Off ‘Terrorist’ Venezuela

Update (2035ET): On Tuesday evening Trump revealed he has ordered a “total and complete blockade” of all sanctioned oil tankers going into and out of Venezuela. This, he said on Truth Social, is based on Venezuela’s leadership having been declared a “foreign terrorist organization”. 

He further boasted of the country having been “completely surrounded” with the “largest Armada ever assembled in the History of South America.”

“For the theft of our Assets, and many other reasons, including Terrorism, Drug Smuggling, and Human Trafficking, the Venezuelan Regime has been designated a FOREIGN TERRORIST ORGANIZATION. Therefore, today, I am ordering A TOTAL AND COMPLETE BLOCKADE OF ALL SANCTIONED OIL TANKERS going into, and out of, Venezuela,” Trump said. 

He then warned, “It [the blockade] will only get bigger, and the shock to them will be like nothing they have ever seen before — Until such time as they return to the United States of America all of the Oil, Land, and other Assets that they previously stole from us.” Minutes after the announcement:

WTI OIL UP AS MUCH AS 1.6% AS TRUMP RAISES VENEZUELA PRESSURE

This is expected to impact some 800,000-9000,0000 barrels of oil per day, which is forecast to increase prices by some $2-$3 in the short term.

Some initial Congressional reaction and fierce pushback as Washington is on a war-footing:

The full Trump message on Truth Social:

The House is set to finally vote on a proposed War Powers resolution related to Venezuela on Thursday.

* * *

Update (1314ET):

By now, readers are well familiar with the Trump administration’s use of gunboat diplomacy in the Caribbean off Venezuela’s coast. That has ranged from blowing up suspected drug-running boats to seizing one massive shadow fleet tanker tied to sanctioned oil flows.

The strategy is very simple: follow the money. By targeting the maritime arteries that finance the Maduro regime, Trump’s Pentagon is applying direct pressure aimed at regime change in Caracas.

Another artery being clogged is inbound supertankers to Venezuela, with a new Bloomberg report on Tuesday morning specifying that four tankers reversed course following the seizure of the Skipper last week by U.S. special forces.

Here’s more from the media outlet:

The vessels are the Panama-flagged Bella 1, which was sanctioned by the U.S. for its involvement in the illicit transport of Iranian oil, and the tankers Seeker 8, Karina, and Eurovictory, according to data from maritime intelligence firm Kpler.

Ship movements show that the Seeker 8, the Karina, and the Eurovictory all turned around on Dec. 11 — a day after U.S. forces seized a vessel off Venezuela’s coast. The Bella 1 reversed course on Tuesday near the Caribbean island of Antigua and Barbuda, the data tracked by Bloomberg show.

Related:

If the Trump administration wanted to broaden the foreign policy strategy, the playbook would likely include a mix of maritime, financial, legal, and continued military posturing short of a hot war while steadily ratcheting up pressure on the Maduro regime.

. . . 

President Trump’s gunboat diplomacy in the Caribbean, off Venezuela’s coast, has the effect of a maritime blockade, disrupting oil flows to Cuba and to global markets via shadow-fleet tankers. The Trump administration calculates that choking off this oil trade could trigger cascading economic stress, first in Cuba and then in Venezuela, ultimately accelerating the end goal of regime change in Caracas.

The latest report from Axios shows that the Trump administration’s seizure of a shadow-fleet tanker in the Caribbean is only in the early innings, with 18 sanctioned oil-laden ships currently in Venezuelan waters.

Last week, a US Special Forces unit seized the tanker Skipper, which was carrying crude contracted by Cubametales, Cuba’s state-run oil trading firm.

The tanker was part of a dark fleet that shipped crude from Venezuela to Cuba and onward to Asia.

Samir Madani, co-founder of the firm Tanker Trackers, told Axios that of the 18 sanctioned oil-laden ships off the country’s coast, eight are classified as “Very Large Crude Carriers” (VLCCs), such as Skipper, which can carry nearly 2 million barrels of Venezuelan crude. “It’s quite a buffet for the U.S. to choose from,” he said.

Given the unprecedented US naval presence in the Caribbean, mainly offshore of Venezuela in international waters, the Trump administration’s theory of gunboat diplomacy centers on cutting off all support to Cuba. To do that, it follows the money, starting with oil flows via dark tanker fleets. Once those oil flows are disrupted, Venezuela falls, and then Cuba follows.

Related:

Axios quoted one Trump adviser as saying, “We have to wait for them to move. They’re sitting at the dock. Once they move, we’ll go to court, get a warrant, and then get them,” adding, “But if they make us wait too long, we might get a warrant to get them there,” in Venezuelan waters.

And gunboat diplomacy it is.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 12/17/2025 – 04:35

Iran’s Economy Struggles Amid High Inflation

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Iran’s Economy Struggles Amid High Inflation

Since early December 2025, a wave of protests has swept across Iran, ranging from human rights campaigns in major urban areas to labor strikes in industrial hubs.

As Statista’s Tristan Gaudiat reports, part of the growing popular unrest concerns the accelerating use of the death penalty by the Iranian regime (more than 1,000 executions documented so far in 2025), while the country’s economic situation has significantly deteriorated.

Iran is currently facing one of its most severe economic and social crises of the decade, as the country grapples with near-zero GDP growth, soaring inflation and escalating social and geopolitical tensions.

According to the IMF‘s latest projection (October 2025), Iran’s real GDP is expected to grow by just 0.6 percent in 2025, a sharp decline from previous years (+3.7 percent in 2024, +5.3 percent in 2023).

Inflation, meanwhile, is forecast to surge to 43.3 percent, one of the highest rates in the world, as the national currency (rial) continues its dramatic depreciation.

Infographic: Iran's Economy Struggles Amid High Inflation | Statista

You will find more infographics at Statista

 

This grim outlook underscores the depth of Iran’s economic issues, driven by a combination of chronic mismanagement, systemic corruption and the impact of international sanctions.

The escalation of the conflict with Israel and the United States this year has further deteriorated the situation.

After a brief but intense war in June 2025, causing billions of dollars in damage in Iran, the United States imposed additional sanctions, targeting Iran’s oil, banking and shipping sectors.

The reimposition of the United Nations’ “snapback” sanctions in late 2025 has also added to the pressure.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 12/17/2025 – 04:15

The Folly Of Establishing A US Military Base In Damascus

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The Folly Of Establishing A US Military Base In Damascus

Authored by José Niño via The Libertarian Institute

Recent reports indicate the United States is preparing to establish a military presence at an airbase in Damascus, allegedly to facilitate a security agreement between Syria and Israel. This development represents yet another misguided expansion of American military overreach in a region where Washington has already caused tremendous damage through decades of failed interventionist policies.

The United States currently operates approximately 750 to 877 military installations across roughly eighty countries worldwide. This staggering number represents about 70 to 85% of all foreign military bases globally. To put this in perspective, the next eighteen countries with foreign bases combined maintain only 370 installations total. Russia has just twenty-nine foreign bases, and China operates merely six. The American empire of bases already dwarfs every other nation combined, and the financial burden is crushing. Washington spends approximately $65 billion annually just to build and maintain these overseas installations, with total spending on foreign bases and personnel reaching over $94 billion per year.

These figures are not abstract accounting entries. They translate directly into American lives placed in volatile environments, as demonstrated by the recent insider attack in the ancient Syrian city of Palmyra, where a purported “ISIS infiltrator” embedded in local government security forces turned his weapon on a joint U.S. Syrian patrol, killing two U.S. soldiers and one U.S. civilian during what was described as a routine field tour. The incident underscores how the sprawling U.S. basing network increasingly exposes American personnel to unpredictable and lethal blowback in unstable theaters far from home.

Syria itself already hosts between 1,500 and 2,000 American troops, primarily concentrated in the northeastern Hasakah province and at the Al Tanf base in the Syrian Desert. The Pentagon recently announced plans to reduce this presence to fewer than 1,000 personnel and consolidated operations from eight installations to just three. Yet now, despite this supposed drawdown, Washington reportedly plans to establish a new presence in Damascus itself, either at Mezzeh Air Base or Al Seen Military Airport. This contradictory expansion reveals the hollow nature of promises to reduce American military commitments abroad.

Since the fall of Bashar al Assad in December 2024, Israel has conducted hundreds of airstrikes on Syrian military and civilian infrastructure while occupying parts of southern Syria including Quneitra and Daraa. Israel has systematically violated the 1974 disengagement agreement and expanded control over buffer zones. These actions align disturbingly well with the Yinon Plan, a 1982 Israeli strategic document by Israeli foreign policy official Oded Yinon that envisions the dissolution of surrounding Arab states into smaller ethnic and religious entities. The plan explicitly calls for fragmenting Syria along its ethnic and religious lines to prevent a strong centralized government that could challenge Israeli interests.

A permanent American military presence in Damascus would effectively serve as a tripwire guaranteeing continued U.S. involvement in securing Israeli strategic objectives in the Levant. Rather than protecting American interests or enhancing national security, such a base would entrench Washington deeper into regional conflicts that have consistently proven disastrous for both American taxpayers and Middle Eastern populations.

The human cost of American intervention in Syria should give any policymaker pause. The Syrian proxy war has resulted in between 617,000 and 656,000 deaths, including civilians, rebels, and government forces. More than 7.4 million people remain internally displaced within Syria, while approximately 6.3 million Syrian refugees live abroad. This catastrophic toll stems partly from Operation Timber Sycamore, the CIA covert program that ran from 2012 to 2017 to train and equip Syrian rebel forces.

Timber Sycamore represented a joint effort involving American intelligence services along with Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Qatar, Turkey, and the United Kingdom. The CIA ran secret training camps in Jordan and Turkey, providing rebels with small arms, ammunition, trucks, and eventually advanced weaponry like BGM 71 TOW anti-tank missiles. Saudi Arabia provided significant funding while the United States supplied training and logistical support.

The program proved to be counterproductive. Jordanian intelligence officers stole and sold millions of dollars worth of weapons intended for rebels on the black market. Even worse, U.S.-supplied weapons regularly fell into the hands of the al Nusra Front, al-Qaeda’s Syrian affiliate, and ISIS itself. The program strengthened the very extremists Washington was ostensibly fighting.

The failure of Timber Sycamore illustrates a fundamental problem with American interventionism in Syria. Washington has pursued regime change in Damascus in various forms for decades, yet these efforts have consistently backfired, creating power vacuums filled by jihadist groups and prolonging devastating conflicts. The current enthusiasm for establishing a military presence in Damascus suggests American policymakers have learned absolutely nothing from these failures.

The figure now leading Syria exemplifies the moral bankruptcy of this entire enterprise. Ahmed al Sharaa, better known by his nom de guerre Abu Mohammad al Julani, currently serves as president of Syria’s interim government. This represents a stunning rehabilitation for a man who founded al Nusra Front in 2012 as an al-Qaeda affiliate and later formed Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS) by merging various rebel factions. Under the name Abu Mohammad al Julani, he was designated a Specially Designated Global Terrorist by the United States on July 24, 2013, with a $10 million bounty maintained on his head.

Al Sharaa’s terrorist designation stemmed from his leadership of al Nusra Front, which perpetrated numerous war crimes including suicide bombings, forced conversions, ethnic cleansing, and sectarian massacres against Christian, Alawite, Shia, and Druze minorities. He fought with al-Qaeda in Iraq, spent time imprisoned at Camp Bucca between 2006 and 2010, and was dispatched to Syria by Abu Bakr al Baghdadi in 2011 with $50,000 to establish al Nusra. His close associates have faced accusations from the United States of overseeing torture, kidnappings, trafficking, ransom schemes, and displacing residents to seize property. The New York Times reported that his group was accused of initially operating under al-Qaeda’s umbrella.

Yet in November 2025, the United Nations Security Council adopted resolution 2799, removing al Sharaa and Interior Minister Anas Khattab from the ISIL and al-Qaeda sanctions list. The U.S. Treasury Department followed suit, delisting him from the Specially Designated Global Terrorist registry. This reversal came after the State Department revoked HTS’s Foreign Terrorist Organization designation in July 2025. Washington essentially decided that a former al-Qaeda commander who oversaw sectarian massacres was now a legitimate partner worthy of American military support. This absurd rehabilitation demonstrates how completely untethered American foreign policy has become from any coherent moral framework or strategic logic.

Critics rightly question whether al Sharaa has truly broken from his extremist roots or merely engaged in calculated political rebranding. The speed with which Washington embraced him as a legitimate leader suggests American policymakers care far more about advancing Israeli interests and maintaining regional influence than about genuine counterterrorism or protecting religious minorities.

The United States needs to pursue a fundamentally different approach to foreign policy. Rather than establishing yet another military base to advance Israeli strategic objectives in Syria, Washington should implement a comprehensive drawdown of overseas military commitments. The hundreds of foreign bases it maintains abroad represent an unsustainable burden that diverts resources from genuine national security priorities like border security and stability in the Western Hemisphere. American taxpayers deserve better than footing the bill for an empire that consistently fails to advance their interests while enriching defense contractors and serving foreign powers.

Syria offers a perfect case study in the futility of American interventionism. Decades of attempts at regime change through covert programs like Timber Sycamore and direct military presence have produced nothing but chaos, empowered jihadist groups, created millions of refugees, and cost hundreds of thousands of lives. The rehabilitation of a former al-Qaeda commander into Syria’s president illustrates how divorced American policy has become from any coherent strategy or values.

Rather than doubling down on failed policies, the United States should pursue strategic restraint, scale back its sprawling network of foreign bases, and allow regional powers to sort out their own affairs without American military involvement. That represents the path toward a more sustainable, affordable, and morally defensible foreign policy. The Damascus base proposal deserves to be rejected outright as yet another wasteful expansion of an already overextended military empire.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 12/17/2025 – 03:30

Europe Establishes Hague-Based Reparations Commission For Ukraine

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Europe Establishes Hague-Based Reparations Commission For Ukraine

Top European officials met on Tuesday in The Hague in order to establish an international commission to oversee eventual reparations to compensate Ukraine for Russia’s military invasion. President Volodymyr Zelensky and EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas were present for the high level talks in The Netherlands.

The International Claims Commission for Ukraine will assess and decide on claims for reparations, and will determine and discharge any amount to be paid out. This is likely to see hundreds of billions of dollars eventually flow to Ukraine for the sake of rebuilding and keeping the civic services sector afloat after nearly four years of war.

via European Union

The treaty to establish the commission has been signed by 35 countries at Tuesday’s conference. It also has the involvement of Strasbourg-based Council of Europe, which is a 46-nation group protecting human rights on the continent. The new commission is going to be based in The Hague.

Zelensky welcomed the newly established mechanism, declaring that Russia “paying for its crimes” was “exactly where the real path to peace begins.” He added: “This war and Russia’s responsibility for it must become a clear example so that others learn not to choose aggression,” and followed with, “We must make Russia accept that there are rules in the world.”

Dutch Foreign Minister David van Weel agreed, explaining that “Without accountability, a conflict cannot be fully resolved. And part of that accountability is also paying damages that have been done.”

All this comes as EU leadership is trying to push through a scheme not just to permanently freeze Russian assets held chiefly in Belgium, but to use the funds for Ukraine’s long-term defense and reconstruction.

But Russia’s Central Bank has this week filed a lawsuit seeking 18.2 trillion rubles ($229 billion) in damages from Belgium-based Euroclear, which is meant as a loud shot across Brussels’ bow.

The EU’s Kallas has lately admitted that the issue of using Russian frozen assets had become “increasingly difficult” ahead of a summit of European leaders which is set for Thursday. The EU is seeking to bypass obvious objectors such as Hungary, and is seeking legal loopholes which would allow a plan to pass based on simple majority vote among EU members.

The World Bank has estimated the cost of reconstruction due to the war, only figuring in numbers up to December 2024, at $524 billion.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 12/17/2025 – 02:45

Austria’s Demographic Divide: For First Time, Over Half Of First-Graders In Vienna Don’t Speak German

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Austria’s Demographic Divide: For First Time, Over Half Of First-Graders In Vienna Don’t Speak German

Via Remix News,

In a sign of just how fast the demographic situation is developing in Austria, Vienna has hit a major new milestone, marking the first time that more than half the first-grade population do not understand German.

The news highlights just how dramatic the demographic crisis facing Europe is, which has seen falling educational standards across the continent, in large part due to mass immigration.

“For the first time, more than half of the first-graders in Vienna’s public elementary schools do not understand German,” the Vienna People’s Party reported on Friday.

The data shows that 50.9 percent of first-graders, or 10,931 students, must be classified as special needs students in the current school year.

This already comes after reports from last year that over 75 percent of students in Vienna’s middle school system do not speak German at home, choosing another foreign language instead.

However, it was already clear that it would pass the 50 percent mark last year, when it was listed at the 49.7 percent mark.

Education spokesperson and parliamentary group leader Harald Zierfuß blames the ruling left-liberal government, saying, “Because the SPÖ and NEOS are failing in Vienna, more children than ever before are unable to speak German.”

“Time is running out for our city. The children without German language skills are the welfare recipients of tomorrow in this city,” said Zierfuß, according to Austrian newspaper Heute.

However, his ÖVP party does not propose emigration or any immigration restriction policies. Instead, they propose more language proficiency courses, mandatory kindergarten for all 3-year-olds, and hiring more staff for kindergartens.

Commentary writer for Austrian newspaper Krone, Andreas Mölzer, wrote about the huge number of foreigners in Austria’s school system last month and what this means in terms of future integration.

“This means they grow up in families and closed parallel societies that simply refuse integration. Integration into our social system and our cultural fabric depends primarily on language acquisition,” he writes.

Furthermore, he points out the obvious outcome of this development for the future.

“And all those children with a migration background who only learn German with difficulty and often only at a rudimentary level in school are at risk of entering life without a qualification and with limited career prospects,” writes Mölzer.

Beyond the struggles of these students, they make up such an incredibly large share of students in Vienna that they are sure to drag down the rest of the students in their classes. The obvious outcome is that more and more White Austrians are sending their children to private schools and even protesting against schools with a high proportion of foreigners — all while continuing to vote left.

Many of these native-born ethnic Austrians either already live in wealthier neighborhoods, vote left, and live in districts where the migration percentage of children in the local schools is extremely low, or they send their children to private schools — while creating ample excuses as to why they are taking that route.

Meanwhile, poorer ethnic Austrians are stuck with the problems in the increasingly foreign neighborhoods that make up Vienna. For the wealthier, left-wing Austrians, these people not only do not overly matter, but if they complain, they are smeared as racist and bigoted.

Mölzer is open about this trend.

“Moreover, (students who cannot comprehend German) logically hinder the learning process and instruction for native-born children. No wonder, then, that in Vienna, if you can afford it, you only send your children to private schools,” he wrote.

The trend of private schools is growing across the entire multicultural left, with White parents fleeing the public school system in cities like Paris or Berlin, where private schools are “booming.” More and more parents are turning away from Europe’s formerly successful public schools and sending their children on the private route.

The education situation in Austria, overall, is extremely poor. In 2025, there are 46,385 students nationwide who are unable to follow lessons, which was a slight reduction from the previous school year, when 48,450 students could not follow lessons because they lacked sufficient German. However, the overall trend line has been disastrous over the last 10 years, dating back to when Austria truly opened itself up to mass immigration.

It is not just language issues. As Remix News has long documented, teachers are dropping out of the Austrian school system in droves due to violence, disrespect, and even serious cases of rape. In one case this year, seven foreign students were found guilty of gang raping, blackmailing, and setting their teacher’s apartment on fire.

Read more here…

Tyler Durden
Wed, 12/17/2025 – 02:00