After yesterday’s solid Q3 results from banking giants JPM, Wells, Citi and Goldman, the earnings juggernaut continued this morning with Bank of America reporting third-quarter earnings that also beat estimates across the board, as investment-banking activity increased amid a long-awaited comeback in M&A and net interest income topped analysts’ estimates.

Here are the full details from the company’s Q3 results: 

• Diluted EPS $1.06, up 19% YoY, beating estimates of $0.95
• Revenue $28.09BN, up 6% YoY, beating estimates of $27.51BN
  • Trading revenue (ex-DVA) $5.35 billion, beating estimates of $5.01 billion 
    • FICC trading revenue excluding DVA $3.08 billion, missing estimates of $3.1 billion
    • Equities trading revenue excluding DVA $2.27 billion, beating estimates of $2.08 billion
  • Wealth & investment management total revenue $6.31 billion, beating estimates of $6.28 billion
• Net income $8.47 billion, up 23%

And visually:

The second-largest US bank also said that net interest income, a key source of revenue for the company, climbed 9.1% to $15.2 billion. Analysts had expected a 7.6% increase for NII, the revenue collected from loan payments minus what depositors are paid. Net Interest Yield also rose.

• Net interest income (FTE) $15.39 billion, beating estimates of $15.25 billion 
• Net interest income $15.23 billion, beating estimates of $15.03 billion
  • Increased $1.3B from 3Q24, driven by higher NII related to GM activity, fixed-rate asset repricing, and higher deposit and loan balances, partially offset by the impact of lower interest rates
• Net interest yield of 2.01%, beating estimates of 1.98%, and up 7 bps from 2Q25, up 9 bps from 3Q24 
  • Blended cash and securities yield of 3.21% vs. total deposit rate paid of 1.78%

 Turning to the expense side of the income statement, total Q3 compensation expenses were $10.52 billion, above the estimate $10.44 billion. The total Noninterest expense of $17.34BN (higher than the est $17.3BN), increased $0.9B, or 5%, vs. 3Q24, driven by investments in people, brand, and technology, as well as higher revenue-related expenses. The efficiency ratio declined to 62% from 65%, the lowest in over a year.

Here are the Q3 highlights as reported by the bank:

With the Tricolor and First Brands bankruptcies fresh, everyone will be looking at the company’s Asset Quality data. Here is the breakdown:

Total net charge-offs of $1.37B, below the est $1.52B, and down $158MM from 2Q25

• Consumer net charge-offs of $1.0B decreased $81MM, driven by lower credit card losses
  • Credit card charge-off rate of 3.46% in 3Q25 vs. 3.82% in 2Q25
• Commercial net charge-offs of $389MM decreased $77MM, driven by lower commercial real estate office losses
• Net charge-off ratio of 0.47% vs. 0.55% in 2Q25

Provision for credit losses of $1.3B, down $297MM from 2Q25, and below estimates of $1.61 billion

• Net reserve release of $72MM in 3Q25 vs. net reserve build of $67MM in 2Q25
• Allowance for loan and lease losses of $13.3B represented 1.14% of total loans and leases
  • Total allowance of $14.4B included $1.1B for unfunded commitments
• Nonperforming loans of $5.3B decreased $0.6B from 2Q25
• Commercial reservable criticized utilized exposure of $26.3B decreased $1.6B from 2Q25

A look at the bank’s balance sheet, liquidity and capital:

• Return on average equity 11.5%, beating estimates of 10.4%
• Return on average assets 0.98%, beating estimates of 0.86%
• Return on average tangible common equity 15.4%, estimate 13.9%
• Basel III common equity Tier 1 ratio fully phased-in, advanced approach 13.1%, estimate 13.3%
• Standardized CET1 ratio 11.6%, estimate 11.4%

Looking at the composition of the balance sheet, total loans rose to $1.17 trillion, above the estimate of $1.16 trillion..

… while total deposits also rose $2.00 trillion, but missed estimates of $2.02 trillion

“Strong loan and deposit growth, coupled with effective balance sheet positioning, resulted in record net interest income,” Chief Executive Officer Brian Moynihan said in a statement Wednesday. “We also saw strong fee performance from our market-facing businesses.”

While not nearly as strong as Goldman or JPM, BofA’s global markets group delivered solid results again: Net income was $1.6B, up modestly from a year ago; total revenue of $6.2B increased 11% from 3Q24, driven primarily by higher sales and trading revenue and investment banking fees. The third quarter saw steady trading volumes as investors repositioned around President Donald Trump’s volatile tariff policies and changing geopolitics. Here is the snapshot:

• Trading revenue excluding DVA $5.35 billion, beating estimate $5.01 billion, largely thanks to equities. 
• FICC trading revenue excluding DVA $3.08 billion, estimate $3.1 billion, driven by improved performance in credit products
• Equities trading revenue excluding DVA $2.27 billion, estimate $2.08 billion, driven by increased client activity

Average VaR of $66MM in 3Q25, down from $84MM in Q2, but up from $64 a year ago.

Turning to banking, total revenue of $6.2B increased 7% from 3Q24, driven primarily by higher investment banking fees and treasury services charges, partially offset by lower net interest income. Investment-banking revenue rose 43% to $2.01 billion, better than the $1.65 billion that analysts had expected. Fees for advising on mergers and acquisitions soared 51% to $583 million, and revenue from equity and debt issuance increased 34% and 42%, respectively: 

• Investment banking revenue $2.01 billion, estimate $1.61 billion
  • Advisory fees $583 million, estimate $446.7 million
  • Debt underwriting rev. $1.11 billion, estimate $858.1 million
  • Equity underwriting rev. $362 million, estimate $346.5 million

Bank of America’s results offered a further look at how the biggest US banks fared in another quarter during Trump’s second term. Investors are also eager to hear details on the national economy from executives whose firms cater to large swaths of American consumers and businesses.

On Tuesday, JPMorgan, Goldman and Citigroup reported third-quarter earnings with strong trading and investment-banking activity boosting results. Bank executives expect trading momentum to continue and the investment-banking pipeline to remain strong.

A wave of company takeovers is lifting dealmakers across Wall Street after trade uncertainty had stifled activity earlier in the year. Global deal values topped $1 trillion in a third quarter for only the second time on record, according to data compiled by Bloomberg, amid a slew of headline-grabbing transactions.

Shares of the Charlotte, North Carolina-based bank rose 4% at 7:03 a.m. in early New York trading. They’d gained 14% this year through Tuesday, more than the 10% increase for the S&P 500 Financials Index.

BofA’s Q3 presentation can be found below (pdf link).

JPM Q3 25 Presentation by Zerohedge

Fresh from reporting a solid set of numbers for the third quarter, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said he sees “some logic” in owning gold, while declining to say whether he thinks the precious metal is overvalued after its record run-up (perhaps smart, considering his catastrophic attempts to assign value to bitcoin over the past decade). 

“I’m not a gold buyer — it costs 4% to own it,” Dimon said Tuesday at Fortune’s Most Powerful Women conference in Washington, referring to storage costs for billionaires who have to store several hundreds gold bars worth billions, and clearly not referring to 99% of actual gold buyers who own a little gold at home and which costs them 0% to own it.

That said, Dimon admitted that gold “could easily go to $5,000, $10,000 in environments like this. This is one of the few times in my life it’s semi-rational to have some in your portfolio.”

Gold, which traded below $2,000 just two years ago, has outpaced gains in equities so far this year, this decade, and this century, reflecting investor demand for safe-haven assets amid inflation concerns and geopolitical unrest, after ignoring precisely the same arguments presented by “tinfoil hat” conspiracy blows such as this one. It continued its torrid advance on Tuesday, climbing to a record $4,184 an ounce, extending its gain this year to almost 60%.

“Asset prices are kind of high,” Dimon said, and “in the back of my mind, that cuts across almost everything at this point.”

Last week, billionaire Citadel founder Ken Griffin said investors were starting to view gold as safer than the dollar, calling the development “really concerning.” Like Dimon, Griffin is also very late to a party we first pointed out about 2 years ago when we showed that after the Ukraine war and the Biden admin’s idiotic decision to weaponize gold against Russia and, in parts, China, the flood of central bank buying was the primary driver of the relentless meltup in gold, a meltup that shows no signs of slowing.

Amazingly, both Dimon and Griffin are very wrong in believing that capital is flowing from risk assets to gold. To get a sense of just how underowned gold is, read the latest BofA Fund Manager’s Survey to find that the allocation among Wall Street professionals to gold is a paltry 2.4%.

Which however is a huge amount considering the allocation to crypto is less than one-fifth that, or 0.4%.

Said otherwise, when the money really starts moving out of fiat and into gold and crypto, trust us: you will see a move in the price which makes the current spike looks like a quiet picnic. 

ASML Holding NV shares climbed +4% in Europe after the world’s top supplier of photolithography systems for the semiconductor industry reported 5.4 billion euros in new orders for the third quarter, exceeding the Bloomberg Consensus estimate of 4.89 billion euros. Despite lower-than-expected quarterly revenue at 7.52 billion euros, versus the 7.71 billion euros forecast, analysts were pleased with stronger EUV demand and improved 2026 guidance. Shares are up 30.3% on the year, making ASML Europe’s largest company by market cap. This earnings report only suggests that tailwinds from artificial intelligence demand will continue for ASML’s chip-making machines. 

ASML Q3 Earnings Snapshot: AI Demand Continues (Bloomberg Consensus):

Headline Results: 

• Bookings: €5.40 billion (-2.6% q/q) vs. €4.89 billion expected – beat Net

• Net sales: €7.52 billion (-2.3% q/q) vs. €7.71 billion expected – slight miss

• Operating income: €2.47 billion vs. €2.43 billion expected

• Gross margin: 51.6% vs. 51.4% expected – margin beat despite lower sales

• Operating margin: 32.8% vs. 31.3% expected

• R&D: €1.11 billion vs. €1.2 billion expected

• Cash: €5.13 billion (-29% q/q) vs. €5.91 billion expected

• Dividend: €1.60 per share 

Segment Breakdown

• Net system sales: €5.55 billion (-6.3% q/q) vs. €5.66 billion expected

• Service & field operations: €1.96 billion vs. €2 billion expected

Unit Shipments (Total 72 systems vs. 98.5 expected)

• EUV: 9 systems (vs. 9.3 expected)

• ArFi: 38 systems (vs. 31.9 expected) – strong double-patterning demand

• ArF Dry: 4 systems (vs. 7 expected)

• KrF: 11 systems (-31% q/q vs. 32 expected)

• I-Line: 10 systems (-29% q/q vs. 16 expected)

Geographic Mix

• China accounted for 42% of net system sales, up from 27% in Q2 – reflecting front-loaded shipments ahead of tightening U.S. export controls.

​​​​​​ASML is the only company that manufactures the extreme ultraviolet lithography machines required to produce the most advanced AI chips to power leading chatbots. The ongoing data center buildout, fueled partially by the “circle-jerk” vendor financing loop between OpenAI, Oracle, and Nvidia, along with a flurry of similar partnerships, has unleashed a massive wave of chip orders totaling in the hundreds of billions, if not more…

“We have seen continued positive momentum around investments in AI, and have also seen this extending to more customers,” ASML CEO Christophe Fouquet wrote in a statement, adding that tailwinds will continue favoring its cutting-edge machines, but business in China will be “significantly lower.” 

Fouquet noted that 2026 net sales are expected to be on par with 2025 figures. This is a notable shift in guidance after his cautious tone in July, when he declined to confirm growth for next year. 

ASML Q4 Forecast: Solid Guidance Above Consensus

• Net sales: €9.2–€9.8 billion vs. €9.23 billion expected – in line to above range

• Gross margin: 51–53% vs. 50.7% expected – margin beat expected

• R&D expenses: ~€1.2 billion vs. €1.25 billion expected – slightly lower spend guidance

Full-Year Outlook:

• ASML maintained its full-year gross margin guidance at around 52%, in line with the 52.3% Bloomberg Consensus estimate, signaling continued profitability despite mixed regional demand.

The outlook is “a bit more enthusiastic” than previous commentary, according to Degroof Petercam analyst Michael Roeg.

“The outlook is still cautious, which must be because they expect sales to China to decrease significantly in 2026,” Roeg told Bloomberg via email, adding, “That must be compensated by higher sales in 2026 to customers in leading-edge logic and memory.”

In markets, ASML shares rose more than 4% in Europe and are up over 30% year to date.

“Semis are also trading well, with the UBS Semi’s basket [UBXESEMI] up 2.1%, driven by ASML (up 3.8%) after they reported solid bookings and as the AI boom is fueling demand for their chip making machines,” UBS analyst Eva Kindt told clients. 

Here’s more commentary (courtesy of Bloomberg): 

Barclays (equal-weight)

• Market would have liked more positivity on 2026, but the fact that the firm is also mentioning China will be less in the mix helps reduce the risk for future estimates somewhat, says analyst Simon Coles

• Given ASML is usually conservative when guiding for a year out, “this should be enough”

• “We detect a hint of positivity on 2027 suggesting strong EUV growth on top of 2026”

JPMorgan (overweight)

• Company didn’t provide full 2026 guidance but indicated that sales aren’t expected to be below FY25, meaning that the current consensus will stand, says analyst Sandeep Deshpande

• “With this report, we believe the bearish view of a worse than expected FY26 will be put to rest,” and investors will focus on FY27 outlook on the back of a memory market upturn and investments among leading-edge logic chipmakers

Citi (buy)

• The healthy — but not dramatic — 3Q order intake supports the view of revenue likely growing in 2026, particularly at the leading edge, says analyst Andrew Gardiner

• “We think ASML’s 3Q results are strong enough to support gradually increasing expectations for 2026” and the growth beyond

Morgan Stanley (overweight)

• Bookings were robust with €3.6bn recognized in EUV — around 15 to 16 tools — a number that’s much stronger than expected, says analyst Lee Simpson

• 42% of 3Q sales came from China versus 27% in 1H, suggesting a possible pull-forward in demand given ASML remarks of a significant drop expected for next year

. . . 

Los Angeles County has declared a state of emergency over ongoing ICE raids – and will provide rent relief for tenants who have ‘fallen behind as a result’ of the enforcement actions targeting people living in the United States illegally. 

The declaration – introduced by County Supervisors Lindsey P. Horvath and Janice Hahn, passed by as 4-1 vote, with Supervisor Kathryn Barger opposing. In addition to rent relief, it will also use taxpayer funds for legal aid and other services, ABC News reports. 

JUST IN: Los Angeles County declares a state of emergency in response to the ICE raids, will provide rent relief.

The LA County Board of Supervisors made the move as the Trump admin continues to ramp up the raids.

“The move allows the LA County Board of Supervisors to provide… pic.twitter.com/DqtvvfhWDu

— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) October 15, 2025

The Tuesday vote allows county supervisors to mobilize resources, and request state and federal financial assistance ‘to respond to the impacts of the raids and expedite contracting to address the crisis’ – which we’re sure will be handled as ‘carefully’ as Palisades fire aid. One can’t help but wonder if the entire point of the declaration is to squander taxpayer funds while delegitimizing the Trump administration’s deportation efforts in the court of public opinion. 

“What’s happening in our communities is an emergency – and Los Angeles County is treating it like one,” Horvath said in a press release. “Declaring a Local Emergency ensures that the full weight of County government is aligned to support our immigrant communities who are being targeted by federal actions.”

ICE began raiding parts of Los Angeles in June with the assistance of 700 active-duty marines, prompting widespread demonstrations. 

Hundreds of protesters are now outside the 300 North Los Angeles Federal Building, where a line of California National Guardsmen and CBP officers is positioned pic.twitter.com/QYndyuqpdR

— Brendan Gutenschwager (@BGOnTheScene) June 9, 2025

“For months, families have lived under threat and workers have been taken from job sites,” Horvath continued. “This proclamation is about action and speed — it allows us to move faster, coordinate better, and use every tool available to protect and stabilize our communities. We will continue to stand with our immigrant neighbors – today, and for as long as it takes.“

The emergency declaration will remain in effect until the board terminates it. 

Via Remix News,

Just like neighboring Germany, Poland’s beer industry is reeling, with slightly different factors at play in the Polish market contributing to the decline.

“The beer season that just ended was disappointing. Unfortunately, in the first half of the year, we saw a decline exceeding 6 percent,” said Bartłomiej Morzycki, director general of the Union of Brewing Industry Employers – Polish Breweries.

“The summer months brought no improvement, and in fact, deepened the decline. It was the weakest season for the brewing industry in a very long time,” Morzycki continued.  

Among the causes, he noted “exceptionally unfavorable” weather 

As well as “broader issues” with ​​the alcohol market overall, namely, lower alcohol consumption, he told ISBnews, as cited by Do Rzeczy.

“For some time now, we’ve been observing a steady trend of reducing alcohol consumption among large groups of consumers. Some are giving up alcohol altogether, while others are limiting their consumption,” Morzycki told the portal. 

The trend is not simply due to health concerns but also the cost of alcohol, which, in the face of rising prices and a slower economy, many now see as quite expensive. 

“Paradoxically, salary statistics might suggest that purchasing power is increasing and that the average salary can buy more beer, but this remains purely theoretical. In practice, consumers are buying significantly less,” he emphasized.

“The summer season is behind us, so since the market didn’t recover then, it’s difficult to expect a significant change at the end of the year. This will likely be the deepest market decline, greater than in 2023, when we were struggling with the effects of high inflation,” he pointed out.

Meanwhile, sales of non-alcoholic beer are growing at a double-digit rate, but this has done little to help offset the decline in sales of alcohol. 

He noted that the biggest challenges facing the industry today remain the implementation of a deposit-refund system, which requires a significant investment and organizational effort, as well as the intensification of the debate surrounding alcohol policy. 

“We still haven’t given up hope of saving the current deposit-refund systems for returnable bottles, which are effective and should never be incorporated into the system for disposable packaging. Under the new regulations, such bottles are no longer profitable. The system disrupts the current circulation chains for these bottles, and as a consequence, they may be forced out of the market because producers will have no incentive to use this type of packaging,” the director said.

Morzycki took aim at various proposals for higher taxes, which he says has created an atmosphere of “chaos” surrounding the alcoholic beverage market. 

One proposal, he claims, even seeks to ban the advertising and sale of non-alcoholic beer.

He also noted the deposit refund scheme. Rising production costs, which have caused average beer prices to jump by about 45 percent over the past four years, have slowed somewhat. But the excise and deposit tax are still a problem. Morzycki estimates the excise tax will add some 20 groszy per can or bottle of beer, while the deposit will add an additional 50 groszy. The deposit tax can be refunded later, “but the customer will perceive the beer to be more expensive at the time of purchase. And this only applies to beer, as alcoholic beverages in disposable glassware are not covered by the deposit,” Morzycki concluded.

Given the current challenges and the risk of further ones, he says there is a high chance some breweries will not survive.

“Unfortunately, considering the above risks – and I’ve only mentioned some of the emerging ideas – even partial implementation could prove disastrous for a large portion of the beer market,” he told ISBnews.  

“For example, when it comes to excise tax, if the government’s proposed increase is implemented, we’ll have a rate at the same level as Denmark. The beer excise tax in Poland is already significantly higher than in Germany or the Czech Republic, and we’re starting to see beer imported from those countries. This means consumption is occurring here, but taxes and jobs remain abroad. As a consequence of such a policy, the slow disappearance of breweries will be a reality,” the director stated.

Read more here…

Via Remix News,

Sweden’s Deputy Prime Minister Ebba Busch has called for a nationwide ban on burqas and niqabs in all public places, saying the country must “wake up from its naivety” about Islamism and act decisively to protect Swedish values and social cohesion.

The Christian Democrats (KD) leader told Aftonbladet that she wants legislation prohibiting the full-face coverings in streets, squares, shops, healthcare facilities, and other public settings — a step beyond previous local attempts to ban them in schools and public workplaces that were struck down under current law.

“You should be able to meet for real if you are on the street, if you are shopping in the square, or taking the children to the health center. Then I don’t want to meet someone who has covered their entire face,” Busch said.

She argued that the niqab and burqa are symbols of strict interpretations of Islam seen in totalitarian states, which she described as incompatible with Swedish society.

“Islam must adapt in Sweden. You can be a proud Swedish Muslim, Christian, Jew, or atheist, but there are fundamental Swedish values that must apply to us all,” she said.

Asked to clarify whether her proposal would amount to a ban on wearing the garments outside the home, Busch replied: “Yes, that’s it. We don’t want to see burqas and niqabs out in Swedish public. Then we can’t control, and shouldn’t control, what people do at home. But the burqa doesn’t belong in Sweden and we won’t pave the way for it.”

Busch said critics who accuse politicians of overreach by trying to regulate how people dress are guilty of “very naive liberalism” that has contributed to Sweden’s failed integration policies. She cited estimates that around a quarter of a million young people in Sweden live under conditions similar to honor oppression and said nearly 70,000 women in the country have undergone female genital mutilation.

“It has gone far too far already. It will take a long time to reverse this. Then we also need to keep the issue of niqab and burqa clearly on the agenda and ban it while we can,” she said.

“You are very welcome to be a Muslim in Sweden, but not in the way that Islam is practiced in Iran and Afghanistan. I don’t want to bring more totalitarian Islamists here. They are not welcome here in the future, and you have to adapt if you are already in the country,” Busch said.

Education and Integration Minister Simona Mohamsson, leader of the Liberal Party, expressed support for stronger action against religious oppression, including forced veiling, though she did not explicitly endorse Busch’s proposal.

“Burqa and niqab are oppressive garments that are based on the idea that women should not be visible in public space,” Mohamsson told the Swedish newspaper.

Sweden’s Christian Democrats will vote on Busch’s proposal at their national congress in mid-November.

Busch’s call moves the Swedish government closer to positions long advocated by the Sweden Democrats, who support the minority government through a confidence-and-supply agreement. Their leader, Jimmie Åkesson, has repeatedly called for more radical steps, including the demolition of mosques, to halt what he describes as the Islamization of Sweden.

Such views are increasingly reflected in mainstream political debate across Europe. In the Netherlands, Geert Wilders, leader of the largest party, PVV, has called for a ban on building new mosques, while Spain’s Vox party recently highlighted a doubling in the number of mosques over the last decade, describing it as evidence of a “suicidal migration policy” that must be reversed.

Across the continent, a number of countries have already adopted restrictions on face-covering garments in public spaces.

France passed the first such national ban in 2010, followed by Belgium (2011), Austria (2017), Denmark (2018), and most recently Switzerland (2025). Others, including the Netherlands and Bulgaria, have enacted partial or local bans.

Last week, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy (FdI) party announced plans to introduce a similar measure.

“Religious freedom is sacred, but it must be exercised in the open, in full respect of our constitution and the principles of the Italian state,” said FdI MP Andrea Delmastro, one proposer of a new bill to address the issue.

Read more here…

President Trump has again put Spain in the spotlight in some Tuesday afternoon comments which again included the threat of economic isolation and punishment. He went so far as to call out the NATO country for being “very disrespectful”.

“I’m very unhappy with Spain. They’re the only country that didn’t raise up their number to 5 percent. Every other country in NATO raised up to 5 percent… It wouldn’t matter if you said you’re not gonna protect them because they’re pretty much protected, you know,” he began

“What you’re gonna do? Go through the other countries and ‘let’s go attack Spain,’ right?” he then questioned. “So I think what they did is not nice, I think it’s very disrespectful to NATO.”

And that’s when Trump threatened, “In fact, I was thinking about giving them trade punishment through tariffs because of what they did, and I may do that… I think they should be punished for that, yes.”

🇪🇸🇺🇸 US President Trump:

“I’m very unhappy with Spain. They’re the only country that didn’t raise up their number to 5 percent. Every other country in NATO raised up to 5 percent… It wouldn’t matter if you said you’re not gonna protect them because they’re pretty much… pic.twitter.com/iAadLSo3ah

— Status-6 (Military & Conflict News) (@Archer83Able) October 14, 2025

During the latest NATO summit held in The Hague, member nations pledged to allocate 5% of their annual GDP to core defense needs and broader defense and security expenditures by the year 2035.

When last week Trump issued his initial threat of repercussions against Spain for lack of pulling its own weight in the alliance, Spanish officials brushed it off.

Spanish Defense Minister Margarita Robles last Friday said her country is “not worried” about getting kicked out of NATO as the lowest spender on defense.

“We are not worried,” Robles said. She added later, “I believe that President Trump must know that Spain is one of the committed and loyal (NATO) allies.”

This was in response to Trump earlier calling Spain a “laggard” given the nation merely contributed 1.3 percent of its GDP to its defense last year.

Trump had said, “We had one laggard. It was Spain, Spain. You have to call them and find out why are they a laggard, and they’re doing well, too.”

He had added in last week’s comments, “They have no excuse not to do this, but that’s all right. Maybe you should throw them out of NATO, frankly.”

Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

The precedent set by Russia’s restrained response to Ukraine obtaining the F-16s, which could also be nuclear-equipped, suggests that tensions with the US will remain manageable if Ukraine obtains the Tomahawks too due to the modus vivendi that’s arguably been in place for managing them.

The latest talk about the US transferring longer-range Tomahawk cruise missiles to Ukraine, which Putin said earlier this month could only be used with US military personnel’s direct involvement, has prompted concerns about a potentially uncontrollable escalation spiral. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov assessed that such a development would lead to “a significant change in the situation” but nonetheless reaffirmed that it wouldn’t prevent Russia from achieving its goals in the special operation.

Ukraine’s explicitly stated goal in obtaining these arms is to “pressure” Russia into freezing the Line of Contact without any concessions from Kiev, which would essentially amount to Moscow conceding on its aforesaid goals since none would be achieved in full should that happen, ergo why it hasn’t agreed. In pursuit of that end, Ukraine threatened to cause a blackout in the Russian capital, which would likely be accompanied by more attacks against civilian and military logistics targets far behind the frontlines.

Some are therefore worried that that Russian-US tensions could spiral out of control, especially after Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov noted that the Tomahawks can be nuclear-equipped, but the precedent set by the F-16s suggests that they’ll remain manageable. Putin himself warned in early 2024 that they too could be nuclear-equipped, yet Russia ultimately didn’t treat their use as a potential nuclear first-strike. This is arguably due to the modus vivendi that was described here in late 2024:

“[Comparatively pragmatic US ‘deep state’ figures] who still call the shots always signal their escalatory intentions far in advance so that Russia could prepare itself and thus be less likely to ‘overreact’ in some way that risks World War III. Likewise, Russia continues restraining itself from replicating the US’ ‘shock-and-awe’ campaign in order to reduce the likelihood of the West ‘overreacting’ by directly intervening in the conflict to salvage their geopolitical project and thus risking World War III.

It can only be speculated whether this interplay is due to each’s permanent military, intelligence, and diplomatic bureaucracies (‘deep state’) behaving responsibly on their own considering the enormity of what’s at stake or if it’s the result of a ‘gentlemen’s agreement’. Whatever the truth may be, the aforesaid model accounts for the unexpected moves or lack thereof from each, which are the US correspondingly telegraphing its escalatory intentions and Russia never seriously escalating in kind.”

The latest talk about the US transferring longer-range Tomahawk cruise missiles to Ukraine fits the pattern of leaks serving to tip Russia off about this preplanned escalation so it can prepare its responses in advance. Time and again, Putin has exercised an almost saintly degree of self-restraint in refusing to escalate, whether symmetrically or asymmetrically. Readers can learn more about these precedents from the eight analyses enumerated in the one from late 2024 that was hyperlinked to above.

The only exception was him authorizing the use of the Oreshniks in November after the US and UK let Ukraine use their long-range missiles inside of Russia, obviously through the direct involvement of their military personnel, which he might repeat if Ukraine obtains the Tomahawks. He didn’t authorize them after Ukraine’s strategic drone strikes against parts of Russia’s nuclear triad in June that were much more provocative, however, which might have been due to his diplomatic calculations vis-à-vis Trump.

Whether one agrees with the policy or not, it’s arguably the case that Putin wants to avoid doing anything that could reaffirm Trump’s perception (carefully crafted by the warmongers around him like Zelensky and Lindsey Graham) that Russia is escalating, thus falsely justifying “reciprocal US escalations”. So long as he continues formulating policy based on this calculation, and there’s no credible indication thus far that it’s changed, then any escalation over the Tomahawks will likely remain manageable.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ZeroHedge.

The president of Boston’s Police Patrolmen’s Association has responded after a violent mob of over 100 people unleashed chaos in Boston’s streets, torching a police cruiser and pelting officers with fireworks, cones, and poles in what witnesses called a “riot-like” assault on law enforcement.

The wild attack, which unfolded in the early hours of October 5, was described as a deliberate and “hell-bent” targeting of police, according to Larry Calderone, president of the Boston Police Patrolmen’s Association, in an interview with Fox News.

“They came with a plan to attack officers, and they executed it,” Calderone said, slamming the mob’s actions as “absolutely unacceptable.”

The mayhem began just after 2 a.m. when police responded to reports of illegal street racing, only to be met with an all-out assault. One cruiser was set ablaze and left in ruins, requiring a tow from the scene.

The rampaging group didn’t stop there, moving through four Boston communities and growing more aggressive at each stop before converging in the city’s South End. “This was premeditated,” Calderone warned. “If you’re coming to Boston to terrorize our city or assault our officers, you’re not welcome here.”

Boston Union Chief: Street Takeover Were Hell Bent On Attacking Cops

Larry Calderone: “They knew what they were going to do and they were hell-bent on attacking police officers. But that is not an everyday occurrence.” pic.twitter.com/syHKopo0Dx

— Mr Producer (@RichSementa) October 14, 2025

Simran Nalhatra, a witness to the chaos, told Boston 25News, that “It was like a riot.”

“We saw someone get arrested, and we looked to our right, and there was this cop car on fire,” Nalhatra said. “It was really scary. I was like, ‘I don’t know why it was so loud,’ and everyone’s screaming, and it went on for an hour or two.”

Calderone told Fox News that this wasn’t just reckless street racing, but was a direct and dangerous attack on police.

“Spinning tires is one thing. Assaulting officers and endangering the public is something we will never tolerate,” the law enforcement official said.

Shockingly, only two arrests were made: Julian Bowers, 18, of Cumberland, Rhode Island, and William Cantwell, 19, of Warwick, Rhode Island.

Both face serious charges, including assault and battery on a police officer and malicious destruction of property. Bowers allegedly hurled objects at officers, while Cantwell reportedly smashed a cruiser with a pole. In a stunning courtroom twist, the judge set bail at just $500 for Bowers and $1,000 for Cantwell. To add insult to injury, the suspects were seen fist-bumping after the low bail was announced.

Calderone called the incident unprecedented, saying it’s been over a year since Boston saw a street takeover of this magnitude. “This level of violence against our officers is a big deal,” he said. “It should never happen, and we won’t stand for it.”

Suffolk County District Attorney Kevin Hayden also condemned the chaos, saying, “dangerous, intolerable assaults on our police officers and our neighborhoods.”

“We and our law enforcement partners will do all we can to identify and hold accountable anyone involved. No one should think they can jeopardize public safety in such a brazen manner without consequences,” Hayden added.

Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

The US and Ukraine’s arguably coordinated fearmongering campaign about the regional security consequences of Cubans allegedly fighting for Russia hints that the island will soon come under more pressure.

Reuters exclusively reported in early October that the State Department sent an unclassified cable to dozens of US missions directing diplomats to tell countries that Cuba sent up to 5,000 fighters to support Russia against Ukraine.

Ukrainian intelligence then promoted these claims in the New York Post, arguably through coordination with the State Department, which coincided with the Russian Upper House ratifying a new military cooperation pact with Cuba that has itself been the subject of speculation too.

Some suspect that it’s meant to formalize Russia’s reported military recruitment pipeline in Cuba that incensed some officials in Havana two years ago as analyzed here at the time, which might now include formal troops along the lines of an earlier pact with North Korea, while others see grander plans. Alexander Stepanov, military expert at the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, told TASS that Russia might send Iskanders and even Oreshniks to Cuba under this pact.

According to him, this “would create an effective deterrent capable of reaching strategically important targets on US territory, thereby maintaining the balance of power and parity in offensive capabilities”, particularly in the context of possible US plans to send long-range Tomahawk cruise missiles to Ukraine. This line of speculation isn’t new since Deputy Chairman of the Duma’s Defense Committee Alexei Zhuravlev proposed in January 2024 that Russia base nukes there and elsewhere in the region.

That would be sensible in principle but unlikely in practice since Cuba probably doesn’t want to risk provoking Trump into considering an Iranian-like maximum pressure campaign against it, especially not after he just ordered a regional military buildup on the pretext of stopping drug trafficking. Continued high-profile speculation about the scenario of Russian missiles once again secretly being sent to Cuba, whether from publicly financed TASS or a Duma official, could still be exploited to this end though.

Much more likely, however, is that the State Department’s reported cable about Cuban fighters supporting Russia against Ukraine is taken advantage of to gradually justify more pressure upon the island. About that, this claim might be true (regardless of whether it concerns volunteers and/or actual troops) just like earlier ones about North Korean support were later confirmed by Russia, but it would be Cuba’s legal right to allow its citizens to cooperate with Russia like this and/or send direct support.

Even if that’s all that there is their newly ratified pact, Ukraine’s fearmongering about it to the New York Post – which Trump once called his “favorite newspaper” – could suffice for returning Cuba to the US’ crosshairs. According to them, “The combat experience Cuban nationals gain in Ukraine is a dangerous and transferable commodity. This experience could be used to train proxies and destabilize other regions, particularly in Latin America, threatening the security of US allies and partners.”

It’s unimportant that the aforementioned is speculation since all that matters is that Trump somehow or another comes to believe (whether on his own or per the urging of close advisors) that this is a credible scenario and correspondingly authorizes a more muscular policy against Cuba.

This could even be driven by cynical electoral interests ahead of next fall’s midterms but disguised as being in the US’ national security interests.

Observers should therefore keep a close eye on US-Cuban ties going forward.