The political left believes that enforcing basic laws is an act of “tyranny” as long as those laws are inconvenient to their agenda.  And hypocritically, when they are in government power any notion of civil liberty goes out the window, as we witnessed during the Biden Administration’s widespread censorship of social media and Democrat efforts to prosecute their opponents for fabricated crimes.  

Anyone with a sense of memory will find it difficult to muster an ounce of sympathy for the Dems after years of leftist oppression.  Cancel culture was created by the progressives as a nuclear option against their political opponents.  They used it without hesitation, and payback is a bitch.  

To the credit of conservatives and moderates, efforts to exact “revenge” have been limited despite the endless list of trespasses by Democrats, not to mention the riots, mob intimidation and politically motivated murders committed by woke activists.  There has been no mass vigilantism to punish them, at least not yet.  

If Democrats were smart they would count themselves lucky, keep their heads down and stay out of the way as the Trump White House works to repair the damage done by Joe Biden and his handlers.  Trump’s election victory with a stunning lead in the Electoral College and a clear popular majority was a message to Dems that their policies and ideals are not wanted by the public.

Alas, acceptance and peace is not the way of the political left.  They claim to love “democracy”, but only if it works in their favor.  They must double down and cause more problems; it’s all they know. 

Case in point:  Senator Chuck Schumer still can’t keep his big mouth shut when it comes to his repeated calls for activists to “rise up” and disrupt lawful White House policies.  On MSNBC this week, Schumer discussed the government shutdown, as well as the indictments of Letitia James and John Bolton.  Schumer once again called for a public uprising to stop Trump, which is likely in preparation for the “No Kings” protests scheduled for October 18th.  

The New York Senator plays the usual rhetorical games of old politics, attempting to place the blame on Republicans for the shutdown even though Republicans have voted in favor of funding measures (ending the shutdown) seven times while Democrats have voted against funding seven times.  Democrats specifically want ACA health benefits to extend to “documented migrants”, which includes millions of migrants who entered the US illegally during Biden’s term and claimed asylum. 

The standoff over the shutdown hinges primarily on Dems refusing to accept any cuts to government subsidized healthcare, which has been an abject failure ever since Obamacare provisions were passed in 2010. 

But the budget conflict is largely overshadowed by the ongoing battle over mass deportations of illegal migrants and the investigations into Democrat corruption.  Schumer has consistently compared Trump’s deportation policies to “fascism”, even though most countries in the world enforce deportations of illegal migrants. 

The deployment of National Guard troops has been mostly relegated to protecting ICE agents from Antifa violence.  Activist groups funded by subversive leftist NGOs operate like an army of saboteurs without uniforms or rules of engagement, and Democrat leaders in blue cities protect them.  It makes perfect sense for Trump to ensure the safety of the people trying to enforce lawful immigration rules.  It should also be noted that the majority of Americans continue to support deportations.

Despite this fact, Democrats are hellbent on using their influence (and NGO cash) to rally activists in blue cities and disrupt immigration officials.  Remember when leftists insisted that conservatives were “insurrectionists” over a single protest in Washington DC?  The upcoming “No Kings” protests (which largely flopped the last time they were held) are meant to create an image of false consensus against deportations, but they are also meant to inspire further mob interference. 

The incessant lies about “tyranny” and “fascism” have directly inspired numerous acts of leftist violence. 

“Authoritarianism, it’s a cancer… We thought it couldn’t happen here… and now the disease is growing, metastasizing in America. But there is a cure — it requires you. On October 18, Americans will stand up, peacefully, for what makes America, America.” @OfTheBraveUSA pic.twitter.com/JXBUlbNAtl

— George Conway 🇺🇸🚫👑🐸 (@gtconway3d) October 13, 2025

Oddly, it’s the investigations into establishment operatives like New York Attorney General Letitia James, former FBI Director James Comey and former National Security Advisor John Bolton that terrify Schumer the most.    

Corruption among Democrats has been cancerous, but few if any politicians or middlemen ever seem to face consequences.  For decades there has been an unspoken rule among both major parties that the legal system would be rarely if ever used against the opposing side.  This all changed when Democrats tried to bury Trump with false charges and undermine the will of the voting public. 

It would seem that Democrats are most fearful of being held personally accountable.  Their calls for “No Kings” may simply be a strategy to distract from the exposure they face as their actions over the years are more closely scrutinized.  

Authored by Paul Thacker via The DisInformation Chronicle,

A few years back, I kept tripping across one of the many “disinformation experts” who popped up during the COVID pandemic like mushrooms on a rotten log after a hard night’s rain. I had no clue who Imran Ahmed was, nor his Center for Countering Digital Hate (CCDH), but the Biden White House plucked him from obscurity to anoint him an expert on COVID vaccines and to censor their critics.

White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki quoted from a CCDH report, at a July 2021 press briefing, and accused Facebook of undermining Biden’s federal vaccine policies. “There’s about 12 people who are producing 65% of anti-vaccine misinformation on social media platforms,” Psaki claimed, warning social media companies to shut down these “misinformation” accounts. One of the people targeted by that report, just happened to be a direct threat to President Biden—Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who was planning to run against Biden as the Democratic Party’s presidential nominee.

“They’re killing people,” President Biden told a reporter, leveling the charge of murder against Facebook for providing a platform for people such as Kennedy.

Intrigued, I began digging into the Center for Countering Digital Hate. In a 3,300-word investigation for Tablet, I exposed CCDH—not for being a trusted source on vaccines—but as a fraudulent political operation formed by two staffers working for the British Labour Party: Morgan McSweeney and Imran Ahmed. These two characters created CCDH and several other dark money nonprofits to install Keir Starmer as the head of Labour. Starmer is now the Prime Minister of England and Morgan McSweeney is his chief of staff. After its success in the UK, CCDH then began operating in DC and coordinating with Democrats to attack critics of the Biden administration.

Right before the U.S. elections, I released internal documents given to me by a whistleblower working at CCDH that showed the group’s goal was to “Kill Musk’s Twitter.” Co-written with Matt Taibbi, the “Kill Musk’s Twitter” article rocketed across the internet with follow stories appearing in The Spectator, Guardian, The Express Tribune, The Telegraph, UnHerd, and the Washington Post.

London-based investigative reporter Paul Holden also started looking into the Center for Countering Digital Hate beginning in 2021 when got his hands on a tranche of leaked internal Labour Party documents that were making their way around British media circles. Delving into the emails, he ran across the names Morgan McSweeney and Imran Ahmed and began piecing together their secret campaign to to push out Labour’s leftist leader, Jeremy Corbyn, and install Keir Starmer as his replacement.

Fleshing out these documents with three years of reporting, Holden has published his findings in a new book released today titled “The Fraud: Keir Starmer, Morgan McSweeney, and the Crisis of British Democracy.” News of Holden’s book has leaked to the British press, leading for calls that Morgan McSweeney be investigated for criminal activity for the scandal now called “McSweeneygate.” To run his campaign for Starmer, McSweeney lied to the British Election Commission about political donations that funded his work with Ahmed. McSweeney and Ahmed also appear to have hired private investigators to dig into Holden’s background and shut down his reporting.

Holden hails from South Africa where three of his six books were investigative bestsellers, and his last was long-listed for the Sunday Times literary prize for non-fiction. Since 2019, Holden has led Shadow World Investigation’s work on state corruption, investigating how the Gupta family looted South Africa with the help of corporations in the US, Germany, Switzerland, the UK and China.

“It’s a pretty Shakespearean story,” Holden told me, sitting on a leather sofa in his North London living room. The story begins in 2017, with Morgan McSweeney and Imran Ahmed plotting to take over the British government. McSweeney is now at the heart of that government and Ahmed has made CCDH a huge player in the States. Their overall goal: censor anyone who doesn’t share their beliefs.

“I am not for an organization trying to get the government to censor my legal speech,” Holden added.

This interview has been condensed and edited for clarity.

THACKER: I got into looking at the Center for Countering Digital Hate, when they released that “Disinformation Dozen” report that the Biden White House amplified to attack anyone critical of vaccine mandates. I looked into their background and found out that they are a British group run by a guy named Imran Ahmed who was a staffer for Labour Party members of the UK Parliament.

I just started thinking, “How does a guy from London land in DC, and pop up being quoted from the White House? That’s so unnatural.” How did you start looking into this? Who is Imran Ahmed and who is Morgan McSweeney?

HOLDEN: I was in much the same position as you. I had never heard of these people before, I would say, late 2021. I’d been given access to this phenomenal leak of documents out of the Labour Party. Initially, there wasn’t much here, but then I came across these emails about Morgan McSweeney and this organization called Labour Together.

At the time I thought Labour Together was this very anodyne, boring think tank, because that’s how they presented themselves in public

THACKER: Just so readers know, the Labour Party is like the political left, sort of similar to the Democrats. On the other side, is the Conservatives or the “Tories,” which would be like the Republicans.

HOLDEN: Yeah, so Labour is the more liberal party. But the important thing is that Morgan McSweeney and Iman Ahmad are the most centrist part of that liberal party.

THACKER: This would be the Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden wing of the Democrats. The Wall Street friendly types, who now line up behind Big Pharma and the defense contractors.

HOLDEN: Yes. They are part of a centrist establishment really, and they are at constant, non-stop war with the more left-wing parts of the Labour Party.

Imran Ahmed, has got a bit of an odd backstory. He comes from Manchester. He was a banker for a while and then, according to his own sort of personal biographies, 9-11 changes his thinking, makes him realize that bullying is bad. He then goes back to university and studies politics at Cambridge, and then disappears, for like six or seven years. We don’t really know what he does in this period of time. He’s only ever said in one interview that he was doing management consulting in the Middle East.

He re-emerges in 2011, and goes to work for a Member of Parliament for free. That begins a five, six, seven-year career in the Labour Party. He also works a little bit, as far as I can make out, on Sadiq Khan’s mayoral campaign for London in around 2015.

He then goes to work for or this MP called Hilary Benn. And this is where it becomes important, because in 2015 Jeremy Corbyn is elected leader of the Labour Party.

THACKER: Imran does have a weird backstory. I reported for Tablet that Imran told a close friend that he had applied to work for British intelligence. But Imran won’t address his ties to British intelligence.

So Jeremy Corbyn becoming head of the Labour Party would be like Bernie Sanders becomes head of the Democratic Party.

HOLDEN: Right. Corbyn became the Labour Party’s candidate to be the Prime Minister. When Bernie Sanders was close to becoming their candidate for President, the establishment Democrats made sure he couldn’t win.

That pretty much happens to Jeremy Corbyn, as well.

THACKER: There was one crazy point in which Bernie Sanders was actually being accused of being anti-Semitic, and he’s Jewish. It was crazy.

HOLDEN: For somebody like Iman Ahmad, the Corbyn victory is anathema to him. He is not from that faction of Labour, and he doesn’t like Jeremy Corbyn. Also, Jeremy Corbyn will be a threat to his own political and career ambitions in the Labour Party.

I’ve spoken to loads of people in the Labour Party, and people suspect that Imran Ahmed is a key source of leaks against Jeremy Corbyn. In the leaked Labour Party documents, I start to see emails of Ahmed working with journalists. He’s clearly got a taste for briefing stories.

Around the time Corbyn wins, he goes and works for another Labour MP called Angela Eagle who is anti-Corbyn. For a brief period of time, there is a sense that Angela Eagle may even challenge Jeremy Corbyn to be leader of the Labour Party.

The Labour Party documents that I’ve seen show Imran Ahmed is trying to protect Angela Eagle from the possibility that her own constituents might vote her out. He is working to make the left wing seem like they’re a bunch of thugs. He’s also railing against small… independent journalists and small independent media outlets who are fact-checking these claims he stirring up in the press.

THACKER: So Imran doesn’t like people like me.

HOLDEN: He doesn’t like people like you and me. He worked with the big media outlets, seeding stories into the mainstream, that are then being fact-checked by these smaller outlets.

Everyone believes Jeremy Corbyn is going to crash and burn, but in 2017 there’s a general election and Jeremy Corbyn gets the Labour Party’s best vote since Tony Blair. Suddenly it’s like, “Oh shit, Corbyn is actually electable!”

For people like Morgan McSweeney and Imran Ahmed, this is the moment where they’re at the weakest in the party. And they’ve got to do something about that.

THACKER: When Corbyn was potentially going to become Prime Minister, one of his supporters is actor, Mark Ruffalo. Now Ruffalo is on social media supporting Imran Ahmed, who helped kill Corbyn, because Ruffalo is too stupid to realize who Imran Ahmed really is.

HOLDEN: I feel genuine sorrow for Mark Ruffalo. He doesn’t strike me as a bad-faith individual, but I do think that if he knew what Iman Ahmad was doing then and what he’s been doing behind the scenes now, he would be deeply upset by it.

THACKER: Many people just don’t know who Imran Ahmed really is.

HOLDEN: Right. So in 2017, Morgan McSweeney comes in. He’s originally from Ireland and starts working for the Labour Party in 2003, 2004. His first job is working under Peter Mandelson, on rapid rebuttal press. But he then becomes very close friends with Steve Reed, who’s now in a very senior position in the Labour government.

Back then, McSweeney’s primary focus is local politics, like South London stuff. But in 2015, he is the campaign manager for an MP called Liz Kendall who was standing against Jeremy Corbyn. Well, she gets trounced.

So McSweeney is part of a Labour Party faction that is pretty marginal in voter numbers but is quite powerful with media access. In 2017, McSweeney left local government issues behind and joins Labour Together. Labour Together was formed to unite the conservative and liberal factions, so the party could focus on beating the Conservatives.

THACKER: So Labour Together’s original concept was to stop the left and the right factions, to stop the squabbling. But then McSweeney changes this?

HOLDEN: Exactly. McSweeney sets about doing the exact opposite of bringing Labour together. Jeremy Corbyn and the Labour Party got around 40% of the vote in 2017. A huge number.

McSweeney is like, “Okay, we need to go about undermining this, undermining Jeremy Corbyn’s chance of success.” McSweeney writes this briefing document for Labour Together, which plots a path to, first of all, destroy Corbynism from within the Labour Party. Second, identify somebody to replace Jeremy Corbyn, who is eventually Keir Starmer, who’s now the Prime Minister.

Now, we only learned this year about the document McSweeney wrote in 2017. McSweeney is essentially the reason we have Keir Starmer as Prime Minister.

One of things McSweeney identifies back in 2017 is that the Corbyn movement has produced this really vibrant, pretty powerful, economically successful left-wing media ecosystem. It’s independent of the mainstream media, and outside of McSweeney and Ahmed’s ability to control. They can’t control the narrative.

From 2018 onwards, McSweeney and Ahmed start working together full-time. According to one recent retelling, there’s only four people who are allowed in Labour Together’s office: two young staffers, Morgan McSweeney and Imran Ahmed.

A main objective was destroying media aligned with Jeremy Corbyn.

THACKER: You’ve got Morgan McSweeney and Imran Ahmed feeding stories to the Jewish Chronicle, The Guardian, The Telegraph, and the other big outlets. I know they helped to tank the Canary. Who else threatened them?

HOLDEN: Their main threat was the Canary and the other one, it’s slightly smaller, is Evolve Politics. The most important thing is that there’s a huge social media network that supports Corbyn, and a lot of that content was driven by the Canary’s reporting. By 2019 the Canary had published thousands of articles and had around 25 full-time staff.

The Canary has an editorial line, which is basically left wing, and their tone is a bit tabloidy, but they’re a legit media organization with good investigative journalists. And they were fact-checking other papers who basically running stuff likely planted by Ahmed and McSweeney.

People have now written about how, back in 2018 or 2019, Morgan McSweeney was just obsessed with the Canary. Wouldn’t shut up about it. There’s a quote that’s been published in a book by a former Guardian editor where McSweeney says, “It’s like, unless we destroy the canaries, they’re gonna destroy us.

And that’s the thing I think is so interesting about the story. That 2017 McSweeney document I told you about, about how he wanted to destroy the Labour from within, they couldn’t do that openly. They had to do it in secret. They made Labour Together look in public like this friendly cross-faction of kumbaya, “Let’s all meet and discuss our differences….” It’s actually this viciously factional organizations They basically run a misinformation campaign.

THACKER: From the beginning, McSweeney and Ahmed are operating Labour Together with all these hidden groups to attack anything that threatened their idea of what is true. And yet their whole tactic was to say, “You’re misinformation! You’re wrong!”

Their whole game is to pretend they’re stopping misinformation; what they’re actually doing is spreading misinformation to attack anyone who has an independent thought that differs from their own.

HOLDEN: It’s so messed up. It takes a long time for even me to realize, pull back and start understanding. From 2017 they establish a campaign of misinforming the public about who they are and what they’re doing. There’s also the issue of the money.

They’re taking in loads of money and they’re not reporting it to the Electoral Commission. They’re actually funded by close to a million pounds in donations from very political figures. That’s not known to the public at the time either.

They launch the “Stop Funding Fake News” SFFN campaign in March 2019 pretending they’re just a bunch of grassroots activists. It’s all about “We don’t want to reveal our identity, we’re just people who are committed to the truth and fighting hate.” But nobody knows at the time it’s actually Morgan McSweeney and Imran Ahmed—a Labour Party spin doctor. Nor that this campaign is supported by Steve Reed, who at the time was an MP and is now in Starmer’s cabinet.

They present themselves as grassroots. They’re actually this collection of very well-connected political figures who are funded with huge amounts of money from undeclared donors.

THACKER: They were also going after Breitbart in the UK. Breitbart is an American conservative media outlet affiliated with Steve Bannon at one time. Meanwhile, Stop Funding Fake News is telling the media, “We’re scared to tell you who we are, because then we’ll be attacked.”

Yet they attacked and condemned at will, anonymously—without disclosing who was funding them—anyone who dared express opinions they didn’t like. You don’t need to like a conservative Breitbart or a liberal Canary to know that people have a right to have those particular point of views without being attacked relentlessly by some dark money outfit like Imran Ahmed and Morgan McSweeney.

HOLDEN: The fundamental issue is transparency. They were pressuring outlets reporting their opinions and ideas and then destroying them without any way of answering back. McSweeney and Ahmed were really successful against the Canary, cutting their advertising revenue. They still struggle at the Canary as a result.

But as it was happening the Canary they can’t do anything about it because they don’t know who’s attacking them. If the editors could have pointed out, “Look, this is just Morgan McSweeney and Imran Ahmed, they don’t like us.” That would have been it.

But there’s also a legal dimension. If you don’t know it’s McSweeneyy Ahmed defaming you with anonymous accounts, you can’t sue them. On social media, there were times when Evolve Politics would ask, “Who are you? Stop this. I wanna send you a cease and desist letter, because you’re lying about us and affecting our ability to earn our income.”

There was no way of taking that legal action.

Stop Funding Fake News was not this heroic campaign to end disinformation and hate, because if you actually check their factual claims, they really don’t stand up. It was basically a misinformation campaign that’s no different from what Russia does. Hidden money for undisclosed political purposes, attacking people to create chaos.

Morgan McSweeney destroyed the Canary as a way of also destroying Corbynism, so that he can then select the next person to lead the Labour Party—so that person can be the next Prime Minister. It’s a misinformation campaign that succeeds in ways probably no other misinformation campaign has ever succeeded.

THACKER: Why is the media ecosystem in the UK is so weird. Why were they so incurious when they’re being contacted by McSweeney and Ahmed? Why would they go and quote the crap McSweeney and Ahmed were throwing around, without disclosing who they are being contacted by? The British media was complicit in this misinformation campaign.

HOLDEN: That is an incredibly good question to be asking of the British media ecosystem. It’s really genuinely crazy that, in certain instances, we’ve only found out this year about articles Morgan McSweeney and Imran Ahmed were placing back in 2018. That’s a mad situation to be in.

I’m generalizing very broadly, because there’s caveats here, but generally speaking the mainstream British newspapers set the news agenda and are pretty hostile to the politics of Jeremy Corbyn. They were pretty happy to be taking stuff from a campaign that was undermining him.

There was also a conflict of interest. The Canary was successful and taking readers from other platforms. And the Canary often had this very aggressive, confrontational approach to mainstream media outlets. If the BBC published something and they thought there were errors in it, they would call that out, “Hey BBC, you’ve made a mistake. BBC is biased.”

THACKER: The British media was complicit in this misinformation campaign. And they did it for politics and for financial reasons to kill off critical competitors.

HOLDEN: Also, 2019 was this insane period of reporting in the UK. There was hysteria around the possibility that Jeremy Corbyn can be prime minister. Imagine if Bernie Sanders had a real chance to be the Democratic candidate for president. There would be loads of stuff happening in the same way that when Trump became the Republican candidate.

THACKER: This hysteria around Trump is still happening. Half the time you read stuff about Trump … I don’t know if it’s true or not. Like that’s the whole problem. I don’t mind reading things that are negative about Trump, if they’re true, but so many times . . . .

We had years of some bullshit story that there was possibly a pee-tape that was secretly recorded with Trump and prostitutes in Russia. Nonsense crazy stuff, with Trump and Putin plotting to take over America. The reporters at the New York Times who did much of this nonsense reporting then won a Pulitzer.

We have Trump Derangement Syndrome. You have Corbyn Derangement Syndrome (CBS) in the UK?

HOLDEN: That’s a pretty good way of putting it. What it’s taught me, and should teach everyone if you want to learn lessons from it: you have to read all your media against the grain. You’ve got to be checking constantly. You’ve gotta have a wide range of sources because everybody makes mistakes.

Reporting that’s presented as established fact by the mainstream media is often, years later, found to be problematic.

THACKER: Read wisely. Read widely.

HOLDEN: Right. The proper approach is to be skeptical about everything you read. You should be skeptical of me; you should be skeptical of you. People should be skeptical of the Times and the New York Times. They should also be skeptical of the Canary. Read things carefully.

You have moments where it’s accepted that a fact has been established by the mainstream media. And if you challenge that fact, or you question that fact in any meaningful way, you’re immediately seen as falling outside of the acceptable commons for discussion.

Yet independent media are often the ones who push at a topic and then reveal the truth.

Read the rest here…

The fallout from the Novelis aluminum mill fire in Oswego, New York, which shut the plant down until early next year, continues to worsen for Ford Motor. The automaker is now preparing to scale back production of at least five models amid a tightening aluminum supply crunch. 

The Wall Street Journal reports that production of its three-row SUVs, the Expedition and Lincoln Navigator, at the Kentucky Truck Plant has been reduced due to “difficulties with aluminum supply.” 

Here’s more from WSJ:

To preserve aluminum supply, Ford also stopped work at its other assembly plant in Louisville, Ky., last week, according to a UAW official, resuming this week with only one of two shifts operating. That plant is in the final months of producing the Escape SUV and its luxury cousin, the Lincoln Corsair. The Escape will end production in December, the official said, as Ford prepares to build a new electric pickup at the Louisville plant. Ford this week is also idling its Dearborn, Mich., plant that produces its current electric pickup, the F-150 Lightning, because of the aluminum issue, Reuters reported last week.

AutoForecast Solutions analyst pointed out, “They’re focusing all their energy on making sure all their F-150s get built.” 

However, a United Auto Workers member at the Kentucky plant wrote in a Facebook post that producing the Super Duty pickups “may run short today, tonight, and possibly over the next few shifts.”

Some context about the Novelis fire at its Oswego plant: A Sept. 16 fire destroyed the building housing the hot mill, rendering the plant inoperable until at least early 2026. This part of the facility is where sheet aluminum used by the auto industry is produced. It supplies 40% of all aluminum sheet used by U.S. automakers, making it a very critical production node for America’s auto industry. WSJ noted that Ford is the mill’s largest customer. 

Last week, Evercore ISI analyst Chris McNally wrote in a note to clients, “We believe this is largely a Ford issue, at this time being, although we are continuing to check knock-on effects for [Stellantis] and Toyota as well,” adding, the disruption at the Dearborn plant will generate a $500 million to $1 billion hit to Ford’s EBIT.

Ford shares have dropped about 10% on the Oswego fire and the resulting production cuts or halts of five vehicle lines. Year-to-date, shares are up 16.5%. 

While entirely unrelated, it’s worth noting that Ford’s production woes come at a time when cracks have begun to appear in the subprime auto credit markets.

Authored by Jacob Burg via The Epoch Times,

House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) said on Oct. 13 that he thinks the ongoing federal government shutdown might become the longest in the nation’s history, and that he “won’t negotiate” with Democrats until they abandon their health care demands to reopen.

Speaking to reporters at the Capitol on the shutdown’s 13th day, Johnson said he wasn’t aware of the details surrounding the Trump administration laying off thousands of federal workers during the lapse in funding.

Some critics, including Democrats, have cast the mass layoffs as a way for the administration to reduce the size of the federal government.

“We’re barreling toward one of the longest shutdowns in American history,” Johnson said.

With negotiations between Democrats and Republicans at a stalemate, the shutdown is expected to endure for the foreseeable future.

Not only have routine government operations been impacted or paused, but the Smithsonian museums and other cultural institutions have closed their doors.

American air travel has also been impacted, with the shutdown exacerbating an existing shortage of air traffic controllers, leading to delays at airports nationwide.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Monday that the shutdown had already begun to affect the U.S. economy but did not elaborate.

The House of Representatives is currently out of legislative session, and Johnson has thus far not called lawmakers back to Washington after the lower chamber passed the GOP-backed continuing resolution to reopen the government. The Senate will return to work Tuesday after being closed for a federal holiday on Monday.

The Senate GOP needs 60 votes on its continuing resolution, which extended government funding at the existing level before the shutdown, to reopen the government. Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) has pinned blame on Democrats, who have insisted on a permanent extension to certain COVID-19 era health care subsidies that are expiring this year.

Democrats say millions of Americans who rely on the Affordable Care Act for health insurance will see subsidies expiring in December, leading to rising costs. Republicans have said the issue should be discussed after the government reopens.

With open enrollment for the Affordable Care Act set to begin on Nov. 1, some Americans may see their monthly health insurance premiums “more than double” with next year’s enrollment if Congress does not extend the subsidies expiring on Dec. 31, according to estimates from the Kaiser Family Foundation.

One of the Democrats who has voted for the Senate GOP-backed continuing resolutions is Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.), who on Sunday criticized his party for sending the wrong signal on the shutdown.

“Now, I fully support—let’s have a conversation to extending those tax credits,” Fetterman said. “I think a lot of Republicans might even agree with that, too. … That’s a priority for us, and they might agree. But, you know, let’s have our government open and have that conversation so people can get paid.”

This is not the first government shutdown tied to health care policy.

When Republicans tried to repeal the Affordable Care Act in 2013, it resulted in a 16-day government shutdown.

However, the longest shutdown in U.S. history ended in 2019 after 35 days, when Republicans were requesting funds from Congress to build a wall at the U.S.-Mexico border during Trump’s first term. The president eventually backed off amid mounting pressure from delays at the nation’s airports and missed paydays for federal workers.

The market rollercoaster continues: after Monday’s faceripping bounce, US equity futures are lower again led by tech, part of a global risk-off tone as the US/China trade war returned after Beijing vowed to “fight to the end” in the tariff and trade war, while acknowledging that the door for negotiation is open and trade talks between the two countries had resumed yesterday. Beijing also imposed curbs on the American units of Hanwha Ocean, one of South Korea’s biggest shipbuilders, as it targets US measures against the Chinese shipping sector. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are down 0.9% and near session lows as market may be reading the latest response by China as an ‘escalate to de-escalate’ ahead of the Trump / Xi mtg later this month. Nasdaq 100 futs were 1.1% lower with all members of the Magnificent Seven sliding in premarket trading, while European stocks slipped 0.7%. Bond yields are lower as the curve bull steepens, pushing 10Y yields briefly below 4.0%, with USD flat as the bond market returns from holiday. In addition to MegaCap Banks we have the Small Business Survey which printed below estimates, and where the section on hiring plans will be under scrutiny given the gov’t shutdown. The biggest highlight of the session is Fed Chair Powell speaking on the Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy at 12:20pm ET.

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are all lower (Nvidia -1.8%, Tesla -2.5%, Alphabet -1.6%, Apple -0.7%, Microsoft -0.7%, Meta -1.4%, Amazon -1.4%). 

• Cryptocurrency-linked stocks slide amid a drop in Bitcoin prices following a flare-up in trade tensions between the US and China.
• US-listed critical mineral companies are extending gains after China hits US with more retaliatory measures on the shipping industry, a sign of persistent trade tensions between the two economies.
• Astria (ATXS) shares rose 30% following a brief halt after BioCryst announced plans to buy the biopharmaceutical company.
• Domino’s Pizza (DPZ) shares gain 1.9% after the restaurant chain reported total domestic stores comp sales growth for the third quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.
• General Motors Co. (GM) falls 1.8% as the company is incurring $1.6 billion in charges related to paring back electric-vehicle production plans, underscoring the toll on US carmakers from flagging federal support for plug-in vehicles.
• Polaris (PII) climbs 8% after saying it will separate Indian Motorcycle into a standalone company and entered a definitive agreement to sell a majority stake to Carolwood LP.
• Navitas Semiconductor (NVTS) jumps 24% after unveiling its 100 V GaN FETs, 650 V GaN and high voltage SiC devices for Nvidia’s 800 VDC AI factory architecture.
• Rayonier Inc. (RYN) and PotlatchDeltic Corp. (PCH) agreed to combine their businesses, creating a major US timberland owner and lumber manufacturer with a market capitalization of $7.1 billion. Rayonier +1%, PotlatchDeltic +5%
• T-Mobile (TMUS) shares rise 1% after RBC raised the stock to outperform as the firm expects the telecom operator to see stronger subscriber growth versus wireless peers in the short term.
• Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC) climbs 2.6% after raising a key profitability metric, giving its first major update about the bank’s next growth target after the removal of regulatory restraints it had operated under for more than seven years.

Global equities retreated after China upped the ante in its trade standoff with the US, stirring fresh concerns over tensions between Beijing and Washington at a time when stocks look stretched after a relentless rally. Besides hammering global stocks and marking a third day of wild stock swings, the latest standoff also sparked a rally in global bonds as investors pulled back from risk, sending the 10-year US Treasury yield down two basis points to 4.01%. Gold swung between gains and losses, while silver dipped after hitting a record over $53/oz.

“The sharp reversal shows how quickly sentiment can shift,” said Florian Ielpo, head of macro at Lombard Odier Investment Managers. “With elevated valuations already making markets vulnerable, expect continued volatility.”
Traders’ attention is also turning to the unofficial start of earnings season. JPMorgan fluctuated premarket after beating estimates for trading and investment-banking fees. Goldman Sachs fell despite posting record third-quarter revenues, on concerns about rising expenses.

Alongside renewed trade concerns, the surge in AI stocks is stoking bubble fears. In the October edition of BofA’s Fund Manager Survey survey, 54% of investors think there’s a bubble in the sector with concerns over global equity prices also at a record.

Bank earnings will be key for market direction later, with Citigroup, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan all reporting this morning. Fed’s Powell is due to speak at 12:20pm ET, and his commentary will be crucial amid a lack of hard data.

Going back to the AI story that has rescued the market from other dips, BBG warns that it may be losing steam. Samsung shares fell, despite the company reporting its biggest quarterly profit in more than three years, with some investors cashing in on its recent AI-mania fueled gains. 

In other assets, cryptocurrencies continued to lose ground after a historic round of liquidations that triggered a sharp selloff over the weekend, with Bitcoin slumping as much as 3.7%. Oil fell after the IEA raised its estimate for a record oversupply.

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 falls as much a 1% after a broadly negative Asian session. European stocks fell on renewed trade jitters as China sanctioned the US units of a South Korean shipping giant Hanwha Ocean. Telecommunications and real estate equities are the biggest gainers, while mining and automobile shares led the declines. Here are the biggest movers Tuesday:

• Ericsson shares jump as much as 15%, the most since April 2018, after the Swedish telecommunications group beat estimates. Analysts were impressed by robust profitability and strong gross margins in the Networks divisions
• Bellway shares rise as much as 6.2%, the most in four months, as the housebuilder leaves guidance broadly unchanged and unveils a £150m share buyback program
• EasyJet shares jump as much as 11%, the most since January 2023, after a report that Mediterranean Shipping Company is considering making an offer for the budget airline, in partnership with an investment firm
• Klepierre climbs as much as 2.5% following a double-upgrade to overweight at JPMorgan, based on more positive capital growth assumptions for the French property management company
• European mining shares are the worst-performing sector in the Stoxx 600 index on Tuesday after iron ore fell from the highest since late February as some concerns over potential supply issues from new port fees in China eased
• Siemens Energy falls as much as 7.4% in Frankfurt trading, the most since April, with traders citing profit-taking in momentum stocks
• Siemens slips as much as 3.5% on Tuesday as Morgan Stanley says the firm is no longer trading at a material discount to its “theoretical sum-of-the-parts” valuation following a strong re-rating this year, and downgrades to equal-weight
• BASF shares fall as much as 2.1%, the most since August, after the chemicals company was downgraded to sell from hold and the price target lowered to €37 from €44 at Berenberg
• Michelin shares fall as much as 11%, the most since March 2020, after the French firm issued a profit warning, mainly due to much weaker performance in North America
• Bekaert drops as much as 12%, the most since March 2020, as Oddo BHF downgrades the Belgian steel-wire company to underperform from neutral, saying the strategy unveiled late in Dec. 2023 has yielded “very little.”

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks slipped on Tuesday, hurt by broad worries over US-China trade frictions as well as losses in Japan, where political uncertainty dragged shares lower after a long weekend. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell as much as 1.5%, to head for a third day of declines, with Chinese tech names Alibaba and Tencent among the biggest drags. The Hang Seng Tech Index entered a technical correction after the gauge fell more than 10% from a high on Oct. 2 following a blistering five-month rally through September. 

“China’s new tit-for-tat move against Hanwha Ocean’s US units marks another escalation in the strategic supply chain rivalry, deepening cracks in an already fragile risk backdrop,” said Hebe Chen, an analyst at Vantage Markets in Melbourne. “In essence, it reinforces the de-risking narrative.”

Australian mining companies with critical minerals projects jumped, fueled by signs of US interest in equity stakes as Trump and China intensify their strategic competition. In Japan, the Topix and Nikkei both slumped at least 2% each as trading resumed following Monday’s holiday. Japan’s governing coalition abruptly collapsed Friday in a major blow to new ruling party leader Sanae Takaichi, plunging the country into one of its biggest political crises in decades. Meanwhile, LG Electronics India soared in its Mumbai trading debut after investors flocked to the firm’s initial public offering, one of India’s biggest this year.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index reverses losses to rise as much as 0.3% to its highest since Aug. 1; the pound drops 0.4% while the Aussie dollar is the weakest of the G-10 currencies, down 0.9%. Hedge funds in Asia and Europe are buying vanilla dollar call options versus a range of currencies amid a pickup in risk-off sentiment, according to European and Asian traders, BBG reports.

• USD/JPY +0.2% to 151.96 (range 151.62 – 152.61)
• EUR/USD little changed at 1.1561 (range 1.1555 – 1.1594)
• GBP/USD -0.6% to 1.3259 (range 1.3258 – 1.3353)

In rates, treasuries climb, pushing US 10-year yields down 3 bps to 4.01%. Gilts lead an advance in European government bonds after the UK unemployment rate unexpectedly rose, prompting traders to boost BOE easing bets. UK 10-year yields fall 7 bps to 4.59%.

In commodities, spot gold has recovered to add $30 after an abrupt selloff saw it briefly turn negative. Silver also fell sharply from a record and is still down 2%. Bitcoin falls 3.5% below $112,000.

Looking to the day ahead now, data releases include UK unemployment for August, the German ZEW survey for October, and the US NFIB small business optimism index for September. Central bank speakers include Fed Chair Powell, the Fed’s Bowman, Waller and Collins, the ECB’s Cipollone, Makhlouf, Kocher and Villeroy, BoE Governor Bailey, and the BoE’s Taylor. Finally, earnings releases include JPMorgan Chase, Johnson & Johnson, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, BlackRock and Citigroup.

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini -0.8%
• Nasdaq 100 mini -1%
• Russell 2000 mini -0.8%
• Stoxx Europe 600 -0.4%
• DAX -0.9%
• CAC 40 -0.7%
• 10-year Treasury yield -3 basis points at 4.01%
• VIX +2.4 points at 21.47
• Bloomberg Dollar Index +0.2% at 1217.9
• euro little changed at $1.1562
• WTI crude -2.1% at $58.23/barrel

Top Overnight News

• US Treasury secretary Bessent has accused China of trying to hurt the world’s economy after Beijing imposed sweeping export controls on rare earths and critical minerals, hitting global supply chains. Bessent told the FT that China’s introduction of the controls (3 wks before Trump/Xi meeting) reflected problems in its own economy. FT
• China added 5 US subsidiaries of South Korean shipbuilder Hanwha Ocean to its sanctions list for allegedly co-operating with American efforts to impose punitive fees on Chinese vessels that took effect on Tuesday. FT
• Chinese rare earth magnet companies have been facing tighter scrutiny on export license applications since September, sources say, even before Beijing’s move last week to expand controls over the critical minerals used in magnets. RTRS
• European Union officials called for strong measures against China after Beijing imposed fresh export restrictions on rare minerals used in computer chips and other advanced technologies. “We should have a tough response,” said Danish Foreign Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen. BBG
• Republicans on Capitol Hill and inside the Trump administration are said to be discussing potential pathways to prevent the tax credits from expiring at the end of the year. Some members of the House GOP leadership circle are having early, informal conversations with officials from the White House Office of Legislative Affairs and the Domestic Policy Council to develop a framework for a deal: Politico
• Japanese stocks slump in Tues trading (they were closed Monday) as markets react to political uncertainty following Fri’s news of LDP’s junior partner withdrawing from the party’s coalition. Nikkei
• Crude fell after the IEA warned of a record oversupply in 2026. Supply may exceed demand by about 4 million barrels a day — 18% higher than September estimates — an unprecedented overhang in annual terms, the agency said. BBG
• UK unemployment unexpectedly rose and wage growth slowed more than forecast in the three months through August, prompting traders to boost bets on further BOE rate cuts next year. The pound fell. BBG
• EPS in full swing this morning with banks – JPMorgan beat most estimates, with both equities and FICC sales trading revenue well above expectations. Wells Fargo beat earnings and was as expected at a high level, missing on NIIs but beating on fees. BBG
• Donald Trump’s lumber tariffs take effect today, with the import duties on kitchen cabinets, upholstered furniture and other items threatening to raise renovation costs and deter new home purchases. BBG

Trade/Tariffs

• China officially began special port fees for US ships, while it was earlier reported that China issued implementation rules on port fees on US ships and exempted China-made ships owned by US companies from port fees, while it is to adjust special port fees on US ships as needed.
• China’s MOFCOM responded to the US saying it has proposed talks with China after rare earth restrictions, in which MOFCOM stated the US cannot have talks while threatening to intimidate and introduce new restrictions, which is not the right way to get along with China, while it urged the US to correct its “wrong practices” as soon as possible and show sincerity in talks with China. It also stated that export curbs are not an export ban and do not prohibit exports. Furthermore, it said they held working-level talks on Monday and noted that both sides have maintained communication under the framework of the China-US economic and trade consultation mechanism. However, MOFCOM later announced that it is taking countermeasures against five US-linked firms.
• China Transport Ministry said it opened an investigation into the impact of US 301 tariffs on China’s shipping industry.
• China’s Commerce Ministry urges the US to correct mistakes and hopes to resolve concerns through dialogue.
• China increases oversight of export license applications for rare earth magnets, via Reuters citing sources.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mixed following the rebound on Wall St and with underperformance in Japanese markets as they reopened from the extended weekend and reacted to the recent US-China tariff tensions, as well as the Japanese ruling coalition split. ASX 200 struggled for direction as weakness in the financial and consumer-related sectors offset the gains in materials and miners, with the latter helped by the recent upside in metal prices and with Rio Tinto gaining following its quarterly activity update. Nikkei 225 underperformed as participants returned from the holiday closure and reacted to the recent US-China trade frictions and political uncertainty in Japan, while there were late headwinds after reports of China trade-related actions against the US. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp are lower amid the backdrop of the tumultuous trade/tariff related headlines in which the recent softening in tone by the US on China was followed by reports overnight that China’s MOFCOM is taking countermeasures against five US-linked firms and that China’s Transport Ministry opened an investigation into US 301 tariffs impact on China shipping industry.

Top Asian News

• Monetary Authority of Singapore kept the prevailing rate of appreciation of the SGD NEER policy band, as well as made no change to the width and level at which the band is centred, as expected. MAS said it is in an appropriate position to respond effectively to any risk to medium-term price stability and MAS core inflation should trough in the near term but rise gradually over the course of 2026, while it added that Singapore’s economic growth has turned out stronger than expected and the output gap will remain positive in 2025.
• RBA Minutes from the September meeting stated the Board agreed no need for immediate reduction in the cash rate, while it added that future policy decisions are to be cautious and data dependent. RBA said the market path for the cash rate is within estimates of neutral but too imprecise to guide policy and it is important to see what Q3 data shows on the economy and supply capacity, as well as noted that policy is probably still a little restrictive, but this is difficult to determine and there are still risks on both sides for the economy.
• Japan’s LDP proposes October 21st for extraordinary Diet, via FNN.
• China’s Central Bank-backed Publication will continue to uphold decisive role of market in exchange rate formation and strengthen guidance of expectations.

European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.4%) are broadly lower across the board, with sentiment hampered by the ongoing US-China spat; overnight, China’s MOFCOM announced that it is taking countermeasures against five US-linked firms. European sectors hold a strong negative bias. Telecoms takes the top spot, boosted by post-earning strength in Ericsson (+13%) after it beat on profits and raised guidance. To the bottom of the pile resides Basic Resources, hampered by broader weakness in underlying metals prices. US equity futures (ES -0.8%, NQ -1.1%, RTY -0.9%) are lower across the board, following a similar theme seen in Europe. All focus today on a number of bank results, to kick off Q3 earnings seasons. BP (BP/ LN) Q3’25 Trading Statement: Upstream Production in Q3 is now exp. to be higher vs prior quarter, but flagged weaker trading into Q3. BlackRock Inc (BLK) Q3 2025 (USD): Adj. EPS 11.55 (exp. 11.24), Revenue 6.51bln (exp. 6.23bln); AUM 13.464tln (exp. 13.37tln).

Top European News

• Barclays UK September Consumer Spending fell 0.7% Y/Y vs prev. 0.5% Y/Y increase in August.
• The tax elements of French PM Lecornu’s draft finance bill reportedly include 30 articles, some have already been announced, but also the addition of a tax on “assets not allocated to an operational activity of property holding companies”, via Playbook. Furthermore, Playbook, citing a source, reports that there is no question for the PS of “doing another round of negotiations on Wednesday, Thursday or Friday”.
• The two motions of censure will be looked at on Thursday at 08:00 BST, but the Conference of Presidents on the National Assembly, via BFMTV.
• French fiscal watchdog HCFP says French government’s 2026 budget plan relies on overly optimistic economic assumptions; based on ambitious spending restraint that would be difficult to implement. France is at risk of under-delivering on spending and tax measures in 2026 budget. Budget bill includes belt-tightening measures worth over EUR 30bln, including EUR 13.7bln in taxes and EUR 17bln in spending cuts.
• French Socialist Party (PS) will not vote against PM Lecornu’s government in the motions filed by LFI and RN, will instead file its own motion of no confidence in the scenario it is not satisfied with the budget proposals, via Reuters citing sources
• German Economy Ministry says current indicators do not point to economic recovery in Q3.
• Riksbank’s Bunge says monetary policy must be forward looking; Inflation remains elevated, but with increased confidence that it will fall back, we were able to cut the policy rate to provide further support to the economy.
• EU Commission modifies drone wall proposals to suggest broader European drone defence initiative, via Reuters sources.

FX

• After a soft start to the session, whereby DXY was dragged lower by the haven bid into the JPY, the Greenback was able to garner support at the expense of risk-sensitive currencies and the GBP (post-jobs data). The bout of risk aversion was triggered by China’s decision to take countermeasures against five US-linked firms – a move which has dashed some of the hopes seen during yesterday’s session. Furthermore, a source piece in the WSJ overnight stated that “people close to the Trump administration say the US side likely will demand that China rescind, not merely delay or water down the rare-earth export rule“. Focus today on US NFIB Small Business Optimism index, and speakers include Fed Chair Powell, Waller, Collins & Bowman. DXY has ventured as high as 99.47, with the next target coming via last week’s peak at 99.56.
• After initially looking like it was going to make a test of 1.16 overnight, EUR/USD was dragged lower by the broader pick-up in the USD. From a macro perspective, focus in the Eurozone remains on France with PM Lecornu set to present his budget at 14:00BST, aiming to reduce the deficit to 4.7% by end-2026. In terms of the specifics, Politico reports that additional measures to those previously expected will include a tax on the richest members of society. Even with the Socialists on board, the governing coalition would still need to find additional votes in the Assembly, which looks tough given that the Far Right and Left are expected to table a no-confidence motion on Lecornu. Elsewhere in core Europe, German ZEW data showed misses for both metrics, with the current conditions component slipping further into negative territory. EUR/USD has been as low as 1.1543 and is just about holding above last week’s low at 1.1542.
• JPY is the only of the majors to out-muscle the USD given its safe-haven status. JPY was supported in early European trade as investors reacted to the increase in US-China tensions overnight (see USD section for details). Subsequently, USD/JPY was dragged as low as 151.63 vs. an earlier session high at 152.61. A pick-up in the USD has since seen the pair return to a 152 handle. In terms of the macro story for Japan, it is one that remains dominated by domestic politics following the collapse of the ruling coalition. Note, the LDP party has proposed October 21st for an extraordinary Diet session.
• GBP was hit in early European trade following the latest UK labour market report, which was largely viewed with a dovish lens. Surmising the data, Pantheon Macroeconomics highlighted the unexpected uptick in the unemployment rate and the decline in 3M/YY ex-bonus average earnings, which will factor into thinking on the MPC. Elsewhere, BRC retail sales slowed to 2.0% Y/Y in September from 2.9% as consumers remain cautious in the run-up to next month’s fiscal event. Cable has delved as low as 1.3255 to levels not seen since early August.
• Antipodeans are both are softer vs. the USD and at the bottom of the G10 leaderboard. In the absence of any material domestic updates, AUD and NZD remain at the whim of broader risk dynamics, which are being led by US and Chinese trade tensions.

Fixed Income

• USTs are bid, firmer by over 10 ticks to a 113-16+ high. Strength this morning comes on the back of the downbeat risk tone as China retaliates. Upside that has driven the benchmark to a fresh high for the month, with the next points of resistance at 113-21, 113-25+ and then the 113-29 September peak. Specifically, China’s MOFCOM announced that it is taking countermeasures against five US-linked firms and outlined that the US cannot have talks while new restrictions are being threatened. Elsewhere, the docket is packed with Fed speak via voters Bowman, Waller, Chair Powell and 2025 voter Collins.
• OATs are firmer today, in-fitting with peers. A packed agenda for French politics. The main update this morning came from the French fiscal watchdog HCFP on the 2026 budget draft, a draft that was in-fitting with overnight sources. On the draft, HCFP described it as relying on overly optimistic scenarios and ambitious spending restraint that would be difficult to implement. Perhaps most pertinently today, PM Lecornu’s General Policy Statement is scheduled for 14:00BST. The statement should take no more than 90 minutes, afterwards other party leaders can respond. It is worth highlighting that the French Socialist Party will not vote against PM Lecornu’s government, and instead opt for its own motion of no confidence, if it not satisfied with the proposal.
• Bunds are bid, given the market narrative outlined in USTs. No move to final German HICP for September this morning which was unrevised. For Bunds, the morning’s main event was October ZEW. The series came in softer than expected across the board and sparked some modest upside in Bunds, though well within earlier parameters. No move to a new Schatz auction which was fairly weak.
• Gilts are outperforming after the morning’s jobs data. Opened higher by 45 ticks before climbing to a 91.81 peak with gains of 57 ticks at best. Stopping a tick shy of the 91.82 September peak; if the move continues, then there is a bit of a gap before the 92.70 August high. The morning’s data saw an unexpected jump in the unemployment rate, going against the view from the most recent MPC statement that there is less of an immediate risk that the labour market will loosen very rapidly. A point that serves as a dovish impetus. However, this is caveated on face value by the elevated wage figure (incl-bonus). Upside that the ONS attributes to the public sector, as some pay rises are awarded earlier than they were in 2024.
• Germany sells EUR 4.25bln vs exp. EUR 5.5bln 2.00% 2027 Schatz: b/c 1.4x, average yield 1.91%, retention 22.7%.
• Italy sells EUR 8.5bln vs exp. EUR 6.75-8.5bln 2.35% 2029, 3.25% 2032, 2.80% 2028, 3.85% 2040 BTP.

Commodities

• Crude benchmarks are trending lower as renewed trade worries, easing geopolitical tensions, and an oversupplied oil market weigh on prices. Benchmarks are steadily declining as the European session continues, with WTI and Brent currently c. USD 1.7/bbl lower and trading near lows at USD 58.20/bbl and USD 62.00/bbl, respectively.
• Precious metals extended to new ATHs during APAC trade, with XAU and XAG peaking at USD 4180/oz and USD 53.59/oz respectively, before selling off as US President Trump hints of total peace in the Middle East.
• Base metals have reversed Monday’s gains, with 3M LME Copper returning to USD 10.5k/t from a peak of USD 10.86k/t, as recent dollar strength weighs on the commodity space.
• IEA OMR: lowers 2025 world oil demand growth forecast to 710k BPD (prev. 740k BPD); leaves 2026 average oil demand growth forecast steady at 700k BPD.
• TotalEnergies (TTE FP) CEO says they are still quite bullish in medium term oil demand; CEO says there is no peak oil demand.
• US Energy Secretary Wright is set to announce the Trump administration’s fusion roadmap at an industry gathering on Tuesday, via Axios citing DOE officials.

Geopolitics

• US President Trump is said to have confirmed that Israeli PM Netanyahu will not annex any part of the West Bank, according to Al Arabiya.
• Iran’s Foreign Ministry says US President Trump’s desire for peace and dialogue is in conflict with US hostile and criminal behaviour against Iran.
• US President Trump posts “Gaza is only a part of it. The big part is, PEACE IN THE MIDDLE EAST!”.
• Israeli’s Defence Force says several suspects were identified crossing the yellow line and approaching IDF troops operating in the northern Gaza Strip, which constitutes a violation of the agreement; troops opened fire to remove the threat, via CGTN.

US event calendar

• 8:45am: Fed’s Bowman in Moderated Conversation at IIF
• 12:20pm: Fed’s Powell Speaks on Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy
• 3:25pm: Fed’s Waller on Payments Panel at IIF
• 3:30pm: Fed’s Collins Speaks to the Greater Boston Chamber of Commerce

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

As was looking likely in Asian trading yesterday morning, markets have recovered over the last 24 hours, with the S&P 500 (+1.56%) last night bouncing back from its tariff-induced selloff on Friday. A little momentum has been lost in the Asian session this morning but we’re still in a better place than Friday.

As we discussed this time yesterday, the biggest driver to Monday’s rally was more positive rhetoric on trade over the weekend, which suggested that the US was more open to a compromise than Trump’s initial posts from Friday had indicated. But markets also got another boost from the latest AI news, as OpenAI signed a deal with Broadcom (+9.88%) to purchase 10 gigawatts of computer chips. So by the close, it meant the S&P 500 had recovered more than half of its Friday losses, and other assets like Brent crude oil (+0.94%) also managed to pare back last week’s declines.

Stand by for the start of US earnings season today with JPMorgan Chase, Johnson & Johnson, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, BlackRock and Citigroup all reporting. S&P 500 (-0.38%) and NASDAQ (-0.57%) futures are lower this morning ahead of what will soon be a deluge of earnings in a market starved of macro data due to the shutdown. Japanese markets are being hit the most this morning with the Nikkei down -2.80% with continued reverberations around the collapse of the ruling coalition late last week which puts some concerns as to whether new LDP leader Sanae Takaichi can still get enough votes to be elected PM.  

In terms of the latest on the trade war, the news over the last 24 hours has continued to sound much more emollient. For instance, US Treasury Secretary Bessent was on Fox Business yesterday, and he said on the Trump-Xi meeting in South Korea, that “I believe that meeting will still be on”. Polymarket has the probability at such a meeting at 74% this morning from 62% as we went to print yesterday, 35% at the lows on Friday and 88% at the recent highs last week. Although as we go to print Bessent has been interviewed by the FT and his words seem more hawkish, accusing the Chinese of trying to hurt the world economy.

A reminder of Trump’s weekend posts, including his comment that Chinese President Xi “doesn’t want Depression for his country, and neither do I. The U.S.A. wants to help China, not hurt it!!!”  That backdrop led to a decent rebound for the most trade-sensitive stocks. So the NASDAQ Golden Dragon China index was up +3.21%, and that’s an index made up of companies publicly traded in the US, but who do a majority of their business in China. Similarly, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (+4.93%) posted its strongest daily performance since May, admittedly with a boost from the Broadcom headlines as well.  

That unwind was clear across multiple asset classes, as the initial reaction from Friday was pared back. For instance, oil prices posted a decent recovery, with Brent crude (+0.94%) moving back up to $63.32/bbl, as investors lowered the chances of a wider breakdown in trade. Meanwhile US bond markets were closed for the Columbus Day holiday, but Treasury futures pointed to higher yields all day but 10yr yields are only +0.6bps higher this morning from Friday’s close at 4.038% after having approached 4.07% at the reopen in Asia. 2yr yields are actually -1.3bps lower now than Friday’s close.

Whilst the focus was mainly on trade yesterday, we’re also now two weeks into the US government shutdown, with no sign of a resolution as it stands. Indeed, if we look at prediction markets, it’s clear that a growing risk of an extended shutdown is being priced in, with Polymarket saying there’s a 27% chance now of it lasting beyond November 16. So that would still be another month from here and take it well over the 35-day record set in 2018-19. And if it did last that long, then it would continue to impact the flow of data like the jobs reports and have an increasing macroeconomic impact as federal workers remain without pay for the shutdown period.  

Over in Europe, political uncertainty was also a key theme yesterday as investors remain focused on the French budget situation. In terms of the next steps, PM Lecornu will be delivering the general policy statement today after his reappointment as PM, but the same issue remains in that the National Assembly is completely fractured between the different groups, who each have their own red lines. For now, however, markets haven’t seen much reaction, with the Franco-German 10yr spread holding broadly steady at 83bps. So it’s still beneath its peak of 86bps last week, when there was briefly a lot of speculation about another snap legislative election. Polymarket suggests the probability of an election being called by the end of the month and the end of the year stands at 36% and 57% respectively this morning but both down over 10pp from Sunday’s highs.

Elsewhere in Europe, markets generally put in a solid performance yesterday, with the STOXX 600 up +0.44%, alongside gains for the DAX (+0.60%), the CAC 40 (+0.21%) and the FTSE 100 (+0.16%). Similarly, bonds rallied across the continent, with yields on 10yr bunds (-0.8bps), OATs (-0.9bps) and BTPs (-2.8bps) all moving lower, whilst Spain’s 10yr yield (-1.6bps) hit a 3-month low.

In the rest of Asia, outside of the politically motivated slump in Japan, markets are on the softer side led by the KOSPI (-1.36%) which has turned sharply lower as I’ve been typing this morning even with decent results from Samsung. China has imposed curbs on five US units of Hanwha Ocean after the US probed Chinese maritime, logistics and shipbuilding industries. Elsewhere, the Hang Seng (-0.18%) is also lower for the seventh consecutive session with the Shanghai Composite (+0.21%) holding onto its gains alongside the S&P/ASX 200 (+0.16%). The minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s latest meeting revealed that the central bank remains cautious regarding future interest rate cuts due to persistent local inflation, while largely reiterating its data-dependent approach to future rate adjustments, noting that it is also awaiting the full impact of its monetary easing to be reflected in the economy.

Finally, yesterday brought another surge in gold prices (+2.30%), which continued their rally to close at $4,1110/oz. So that now takes their YTD gain up to +56.6%, still on track for their strongest annual performance since 1979. This morning we’re up another +1.38% as I type. Meanwhile, silver (+4.44%) moved up to $52.37/oz yesterday, with its own YTD gains now standing at +82%. The London short squeeze continues to have an impact.

To the day ahead now, and data releases include UK unemployment for August, the German ZEW survey for October, and the US NFIB small business optimism index for September. Central bank speakers include Fed Chair Powell, the Fed’s Bowman, Waller and Collins, the ECB’s Cipollone, Makhlouf, Kocher and Villeroy, BoE Governor Bailey, and the BoE’s Taylor. Finally, earnings releases include JPMorgan Chase, Johnson & Johnson, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, BlackRock and Citigroup.

Global equity futures slipped on Tuesday after China vowed to “fight to the end” in its trade war with the U.S., following President Trump’s threat last week to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese goods. Despite Washington’s attempts to soften its tone over the weekend, tensions are intensifying into the new week: both countries are imposing new docking fees on each other’s vessels, signaling deepening Sino-US relations ahead of Trump-Xi talks. Adding to the flaring tensions, Beijing sanctioned five U.S. subsidiaries of South Korean shipbuilder Hanwha Ocean, while U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent accused China of deliberately undermining the global economy.

Trump’s move last Friday to threaten Beijing with an additional 100% tariff on Chinese goods, in response to China’s sweeping new export controls on rare earths and ahead of a planned Trump-Xi meeting later this month, signals that both sides are trying to gain as much leverage as possible before the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum in South Korea. 

The Chinese Commerce Ministry condemned the Trump administration’s tactics, calling them incompatible with dialogue. “If you wish to fight, we shall fight to the end; if you wish to negotiate, our door remains open,” a ministry spokesperson said.

“The United States cannot simultaneously seek dialogue while threatening to impose new restrictive measures. This is not the proper way to engage with China,” the ministry said.

On Sunday, Trump walked back his rhetoric in a Truth Social post that said “it will all be fine”, adding that the U.S. wants to “help” China. This relief sent global equities soaring on Monday, yet the outlook darkened on Tuesday after the ministry sanctioned South Korean shipbuilder Hanwha. 

China’s Commerce Ministry wrote in a statement that Hanwha Ocean’s five U.S. subsidiaries, Hanwha Shipping LLC, Hanwha Philly Shipyard Inc., Hanwha Ocean USA International LLC, Hanwha Shipping Holdings LLC, and HS USA Holdings Corp, are sanctioned over “assisting and supporting the U.S. government’s probes and measures against Chinese maritime, logistics and shipbuilding sectors. China is strongly dissatisfied and resolutely opposes it.” 

Earlier Tuesday, Beijing confirmed it had begun imposing additional port fees on vessels linked to the U.S., while clarifying that Chinese-built ships would be exempt from the new charges. This tit-for-tat followed the U.S. decision to impose on Chinese vessels at U.S. ports.

Also, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told the Financial Times that Beijing is trying to damage the global economy with its export controls on rare earths and critical minerals, sending some global supply chains into snarled conditions. 

“This is a sign of how weak their economy is, and they want to pull everybody else down with them,” Bessent said on Monday, adding, “Maybe there is some Leninist business model where hurting your customers is a good idea, but they are the largest supplier to the world. If they want to slow down the global economy, they will be hurt the most.”

Bessent added, “They are in the middle of a recession/depression, and they are trying to export their way out of it. The problem is they’re exacerbating their standing in the world.”

There’s been a flurry of developments on the U.S.-China front. UBS analyst Joe Dickinson broke down the past 24 hours, removing the noise to explain market impacts:

EStoxx fell 20bp to start, following U.S. futures lower. Commentary from both the U.S. and China on Trade was conciliatory overnight. China’s commerce ministry indicated working-level talks were held Monday, Treasury Secretary Bessent confirmed that Trump and Xi are still expected to meet at the APEC Summit at the end of the month.

But price action in Asia is cautious and weaker again. Nikkei cash dropped 2.8% while futures were down 1.7%. China reopens lower in the afternoon session, with CSI300 down 80bp after China’s Ministry of Commerce announced curbs on five U.S. units of Hanwha Ocean in response to U.S. probes against Chinese maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding industries, as well as reports that China has started charging port fees for U.S. ships. Note that Samsung slid 4% post earnings.

S&P 500 futures are down a little more than 1% while Nasdaq 100 contracts fell 1.5%. 

Sea of red across global equity futures. 

Bitcoin’s rebound losing momentum. 

WTI futures tumbling. 

Treasuries bid. US10Y tags 4%. 

Now we wait to see whether the Trump administration doubles-down on their tit-for-tat-ing or steadies the ship again?

From a scrappy garage startup to the world’s most valuable company, Apple’s journey is closely tied to the legacies of its two most influential CEOs: Steve Jobs and Tim Cook.

This visual, created by Made Visual Daily via Visual Capitalist, compares the two eras side by side. It highlights key milestones, product launches, and the company’s market capitalization growth.

The data comes from publicly available sources.

Under Steve Jobs, Apple’s market cap surged from $2.5 billion to $350 billion, driven by iconic releases like the iMac, iPod, iPhone, and iPad. Meanwhile, Tim Cook has overseen a staggering $3.1 trillion increase in value, with the company reaching $3.7 trillion in 2025, bolstered by services, AirPods, Apple Silicon, and even the Apple Vision Pro.

Jobs: The Product Visionary

Jobs returned to Apple in 1997 during a time of crisis. Over the next 14 years, he delivered breakthrough products that redefined industries—from the original iMac and iPod to the game-changing iPhone and iPad. These weren’t just gadgets—they reshaped how people interact with technology.

The launch of the App Store in 2008 also set the foundation for Apple’s massive software and services ecosystem, now a major profit center for the company.

Cook: The Scaler and Strategist

When Cook took over in 2011, many questioned if Apple could continue innovating. But Cook’s operational acumen allowed the company to scale globally, optimize margins, and diversify revenue streams. Under his leadership, Apple launched the Apple Watch, AirPods, Apple Pay, and custom silicon (M1 chip), while significantly expanding its services segment.

Today, Apple’s ecosystem includes hardware, services, entertainment, and finance. Cook has successfully shepherded the company into new growth areas, helping it weather challenges like supply chain crises and slowing smartphone growth.

The Longevity of Leadership, and the Question of What’s Next

Cook has now led Apple longer than Jobs. His quiet, operational style has proved durable, weathering global disruptions while continuing to expand Apple’s footprint in China, health, and AI.

But with his tenure entering its twilight, attention is turning toward succession. Some analysts point to COO Jeff Williams or SVP of Services Eddy Cue as likely candidates, while others speculate that rising stars like John Ternus or Craig Federighi could take the reins.

As Apple’s next chapter unfolds, the bar remains high: Cook took the world’s most innovative company and turned it into one of its most valuable ones. The next leader will have to chart a path for both growth and reinvention.

As noted in this 2023 CNBC profile, Cook emphasizes collaboration and expects innovation from every level of the company. Whoever takes the reins next will need to balance Apple’s culture of secrecy with a rapidly evolving tech landscape—from AI to augmented reality.

For how many years was Apple the most valuable company in the U.S. between 1995 to 2025? Find out in this nifty visualization on Voronoi.

Via The Cradle

The Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) stated on Monday that its officers foiled a terrorist attack in Moscow that was planned by ISIS under the direction of Ukrainian intelligence.

ISIS operatives sought to target a high-ranking Russian Defense Ministry official using an explosive device in a densely populated area of the capital city, the agency said in a statement.

“The FSB has prevented a sabotage and terrorist act against one of the senior officers of the Russian Defense Ministry, organized by Ukrainian special services in coordination with leaders of the international terrorist organization Islamic State (banned as a terrorist organization in Russia),” the FSB statement said.

Four suspects connected to the plot were detained, including a native of a Central Asian country. The FSB alleged that the plan was developed by Ukrainian intelligence and would have been carried out by a suicide bomber recruited by an ISIS member named Saidakbar Gulomov.

“On instructions from Ukrainian handlers, S. Gulomov remotely directed the perpetrator’s actions from Ukraine and several Western European countries using multiple foreign messaging applications,” the FSB added.

Gulomov allegedly provided the attacker with funds, information about the target, and materials for assembling explosive devices smuggled into Russia by Ukrainian intelligence using drones.

According to the FSB, Gulomov was also involved in the killing of Russian Lieutenant General Kirillov, commander of the Russian Radiation, Chemical, and Biological Defense Troops, in December 2024.

The FSB claims the attack on Kirillov was also orchestrated by Ukrainian intelligence. Monday’s foiled terror attack “once again demonstrates the close coordination between the Kiev regime and international terrorist organizations,” the Russian intelligence service stated.

In March 2024, four gunmen attacked a concert hall near Moscow, opening fire on the more than 5,000 people gathered to watch the Russian rock group Piknik. At least 145 people were killed in the attack.  

Russian authorities blamed the ISIS affiliate in Afghanistan, ISIS-Khorasan, for the attack, while also accusing Ukrainian intelligence of orchestrating it.

“The investigation has concluded that the terrorist act was planned and organized by the security services of an unfriendly state in order to destabilize the situation in Russia,” stated the Russian Investigative Committee, which was tasked with determining who was responsible. “Members of an international terrorist organization were recruited to carry it out.”

Authored by Nick Smallwood via BondVigilantes.com,

The increasing liquidity squeeze in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia’s (KSA) financial system has been causing heightened levels of debate for some time.

A growing economy and the financial demands of the mega-projects that are under way are hoovering up cash faster than the domestic system can supply it. For context, recent reports suggest that the new city of NEOM could cost $8.8tn to build, which is around 25 times KSA’s annual budget.

Until recently, the Saudi business complex was able to meet its financial needs by raising money locally, generally via bank loans or by issuing sukuks into the strong domestic investor base (often private banks managing the wealth of high-net-worth individuals). However, the system has become too stretched. Credit growth has outstripped deposit growth for several years, while local investors buying financial assets must withdraw money from their bank accounts to do so, meaning that financial investments cause a reduction in banks’ deposit funding as local funding is cannibalised.

On top of that, deliberate oil production cuts and weaker oil prices have reduced oil revenues from SAR 857bn in 2022 to a projected SAR 608bn in 2025, contributing to a swing in the national budget from a surplus of 2.2% of GDP to a projected deficit of 4% over the period (using IMF numbers). The deliberate attempt to diversify away from oil therefore comes at a budgetary cost, at least for now, meaning that the country needs to attract more external funding.

If domestic liquidity is challenged, the logical step for a highly-rated country to take is to seek funding from abroad, which is precisely what has occurred. International debt issued by KSA and its large banks/corporates has surged in recent years. KSA sovereign and quasi-sovereign issuances now account for 5.1% of the most widely used EM sovereign bond index (JPM EMBI), meaning that it is now the largest issuer in that index. Its corporates now account for 4.3% of the corporate version of that index (JPM CEMBI), in which it has become the fourth-largest constituent. That represents a stunning change in its international market presence.

A glance at financial sector balance sheets shows that the need for international funding is structural – it is here to stay. Overall bank loans have grown at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14% since 2019, with deposits growing by just 8% over the same period. In cash terms, loans have doubled from SAR 1.5tn in 2019 to SAR 3.0tn as at end-2024, while deposits have increased much less, from SAR 1.8tn to SAR 2.7tn. In 2019, therefore, the financial system had more than enough deposits to fund the economy’s credit needs; by 2024, this is patently no longer the case. In fact, the system’s loans/deposits ratio has weakened from 86% to 110% over the period. The conclusion is simple: banks are now dependent on wholesale funding if the current rate of credit growth is to be maintained.

Source: SAMA

We can see the scale of the change in issuance of international bonds, which has soared in the past few years. In 2023, KSA banks issued $2.0bn of bonds, accounting for around 6% of total issuance from the Saudi complex. In 2024, this grew to $6.8bn (14% of total), while so far this year banks have already issued $14.9bn of bonds, comprising 27.4% of all Saudi issuance. And it’s not just the banks that are issuing more debt internationally. KSA’s funding needs mean that it is issuing through every vehicle at its disposal, including cash-rich Aramco and its sovereign wealth fund (PIF). Total Saudi debt issuance ballooned from $36bn in 2023, equating to around $3bn per month, to $54bn year-to-date or around $6.4bn per month.

Source: Bloomberg

It is very clear where all this leads: the KSA complex is structurally increasing its reliance on international debt markets. Banks are taking an ever-greater share of Saudi issuance, which also seems to be a persistent trend. KSA is therefore increasingly dependent on international investment to fund its domestic priorities, while the abundance of supply and the prevalence of more price-sensitive foreign investors in its investor base means that Saudi bonds may struggle to perform for a while. We wrote previously that the technicals of the sukuk market would generally assure tight spreads and strong performance (see here). The times, they are a-changin’ – that model no longer applies.