Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

The US’ de facto embassy in Taiwan emailed Reuters a statement in mid-September criticizing China’s reliance on WWII-era agreements in support of its claim to the island.

They declared that “China intentionally mischaracterises World War Two-era documents, including the Cairo Declaration, the Potsdam Proclamation, and the Treaty of San Francisco, to try to support its coercive campaign to subjugate Taiwan.” The latest twist in this dispute coincides with the 80th anniversary of Japan’s defeat.

For background, the 1943 Cairo Declaration states that Formosa (Taiwan’s colonial-era name) will be returned to the Republic of China (ROC); the 1945 Potsdam Declaration references Cairo and limits the geographic scope of Japanese sovereignty without mentioning Formosa; and the 1951 Treaty of San Francisco resulted in Japan officially renouncing its claim to Formosa while leaving its status unresolved. The ROC’s and People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) interpretations thereof will now be briefly summarized.

The Taiwan-based ROC considers itself to be China’s only legitimate government since it represents the League of Nations-recognized ROC despite that erstwhile organization’s UN successor expelling them in 1971 and replacing their permanent Security Council seat with the PRC. It thus interprets the Cairo and Potsdam Declarations as confirming its control over Taiwan while the PRC relies on the aforesaid decision, which recognized it as the only legitimate representative of China, to legally claim Taiwan.

The significance of the US’ de facto embassy in Taiwan criticizing China’s (formally the PRC’s) reliance on these WWII-era agreements (Reuters reminded readers that it considers the Treaty of San Francisco “illegal and invalid” since it wasn’t party to it) is that it’s a sign of the times. As the New Cold War shifts from the US prioritizing Russia’s containment in Europe to China’s containment in Asia, so too is the trend of the US gradually revising the results of WWII in order to give it an edge on that front too.

Russia believes that Germany’s remilitarization, Finland’s membership in NATO, and the push for neutral Austria to follow, all of which are backed by the US, prove that the US is gradually revising the results of WWII. Likewise, so too does it believe that Japan’s US-backed remilitarization is proof of the same, the view of which China shares as well. It was therefore predictable that the US would one day start to more assertively challenge China’s reliance on WWII-era agreements in support of its claim to Taiwan.

The world order always changes as history attests, but in these instances, associated processes are being weaponized by the US for containment purposes vis-à-vis what can nowadays be described as the Sino-Russo Entente in order to justify more aggressive policies against them on false legal bases. Permanent UNSC members Russia and China obviously wouldn’t agree to the abovementioned revisions, hence why the US is backing them unilaterally, which further accelerates the collapse of the post-WWII order.

The ideal scenario as envisaged in the UN Charter is for the UNSC to jointly pioneer a controlled transition to a new order that preserves the balance of power between them so as to reduce the risk of conflict during this period. That became impossible after the US’ unilateral withdrawal from arms control pacts with Russia dismantled the global security architecture, however, which inevitably led to it gradually revising the results of WWII and dangerously raising tensions with the Sino-Russo Entente.

There were 101,513 properties with foreclosure filings across the United States during the third quarter of 2025, up by 17 percent from a year back, real estate analytics company ATTOM said in an Oct. 9 statement.

One in every 1,402 housing units nationwide saw a foreclosure filing in Q3, the company said. Florida had the highest foreclosure rate, with one in every 814 housing units having a foreclosure filing. This was followed by Nevada, South Carolina, Illinois, and Delaware.

Among 225 metropolitan statistical areas with a population of at least 200,000 individuals, the highest foreclosure rate was seen in Lakeland in Florida, followed by Columbia in South Carolina, Cape Coral in Florida, Cleveland in Ohio, and Ocala in Florida.

As Naveen Athrappully reports for The Epoch Times, during the first half of 2025, there were a total of 187,659 foreclosure filings made, up 5.8 percent from a year back, according to ATTOM.

“In 2025, we’ve seen a consistent pattern of foreclosure activity trending higher, with both starts and completions posting year-over-year increases for consecutive quarters,” said Rob Barber, CEO at ATTOM.

“While these figures remain within a historically reasonable range, the persistence of this trend could be an early indicator of emerging borrower strain in some areas.”

Together with a jump in foreclosure filings, the third quarter also saw the average time to foreclose a property decline by 25 percent from a year back, ATTOM said, adding that this continues a downward trend from mid-2020.

In a June 26 statement, credit scoring model company VantageScore reported that mortgage delinquencies rose in May from the previous month, suggesting this could be an early sign of financial stress among borrowers in the housing sector.

“While consumer behavior generally remains positive, particularly among younger borrowers, mortgages may be an area to watch for increasing credit stress, particularly for traditionally less-risky segments with credit scores above VantageScore 660,” Susan Fahy, chief digital officer at VantageScore, said at the time.

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported similar trends in an Aug. 5 statement, highlighting that 1.29 percent of mortgage debts were in serious delinquency—90 days or more—in the second quarter of 2025, up from 0.95 percent in Q2, 2024.

However, Joelle Scally, economic policy advisor at the New York Fed, said that despite the increase in mortgage delinquency, the overall mortgage performance “remains strong by historical standards.”

Meanwhile, lawmakers have taken various actions to tackle foreclosure threats facing Americans.

In March, the VA Home Loan Program Reform Act was introduced by Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-Wis.). The Act eventually passed both chambers of Congress and was signed into law by President Donald Trump on July 30.

The bill aims to financially assist military veterans when it comes to making their home payments in an environment of elevated mortgage rates, thereby avoiding foreclosures.

“The VA Home Loan program has helped millions of veterans achieve the American Dream of owning a home. However, we know that veterans—like all Americans—can fall on hard times and may need a safety net in place to avoid foreclosure on their home,” Rep. Mike Bost (R-Ill.), chairman of the House Veterans’ Affairs Committee, said in a July 16 statement.

“The VA Home Loan Program Reform Act addresses that need head on.”

This week, Sen. Brian Schatz (D-Hawaii) led a group of senators to introduce the Federal Employee Civil Relief Act to protect federal workers and contractor employees, as well as their families, from facing difficulties such as foreclosure or evictions during the ongoing government shutdown, the lawmaker’s office said in an Oct. 8 statement.

This protection will last during the shutdown and 30 days after it so as to “give workers a chance to keep up with their bills,” it said.

In a government shutdown, certain employees deemed to be performing essential work are required to continue working without pay, including law enforcement officers, air traffic controllers, and military personnel.

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times,

Family members of law enforcement officers are facing threats from individuals affiliated with the far-left extremist group Antifa, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) said in an Oct. 10 X post.

“Antifa terrorists are threatening the families of our law enforcement. We will hunt these sickos down and put them behind bars,” the post said. “In Texas, the spouse of an ICE officer received a voicemail filled with violent threats.”

The agency uploaded an audio clip of the threat received by the spouse, in which a woman can be heard using expletives against the wife of the Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officer, comparing them to Nazis.

“Did you hear what happened to the Nazis after World War II? Because that’s what’s going to happen to your family,” the caller said in the expletive-filled message.

In an Oct. 10 X post, the White House said Antifa is a radical terror group explicitly calling for the overthrow of the American government.

“Under the Trump Administration, Antifa’s days are over,” it said.

The post included a video of several officials and personalities detailing threats posed by the group.

For instance, conservative influencer Cam Higby reported he was “brutally attacked and almost killed” by Antifa in Seattle and that all of his colleagues have faced violence.

In the video, Attorney General Pam Bondi said Antifa attacked police stations, attacked court houses, and doxxed law enforcement officers. “They are a terrorist group and we are coming after them,” she said.

Antifa is a far-left extremist group originating in the Soviet Union and is known for committing politically motivated violence against their opponents, whom the group typically labels as fascists.

President Donald Trump designated Antifa a domestic terrorist organization in a Sept. 22 executive order, calling the group a “militarist, anarchist enterprise” that uses campaigns of violence and terrorism to accomplish its goal of overthrowing the U.S. government and the system of law.

“Antifa recruits, trains, and radicalizes young Americans to engage in this violence and suppression of political activity,” said the order.

The group then employs “elaborate means and mechanisms to shield the identities of its operatives, conceal its funding sources and operations in an effort to frustrate law enforcement, and recruit additional members.”

During a roundtable discussion at the White House on Oct. 7, several journalists assaulted by Antifa shared their experiences. One journalist, Andy Ngo, senior editor at The Post Millennial, recounted being attacked by members of the group in 2019 and 2021.

Talking about an assault in Portland, Ngo said, “That was my only near-death experience in my life, and I’m quite shaken when I think about it now.”

At the event, Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem said Antifa members do not just want to threaten law enforcement officers but also want to kill them.

FBI Director Kash Patel said disrupting Antifa’s funding was a priority and the agency will not rest until it finds every single donor and funding mechanism used by the terror outfit.

Trump vowed to take strong action against the group. “We’re going to be very threatening to them, far more threatening to them than they ever were with us,” he said. “And that includes the people that fund them.”

Cracking Down on Antifa

In a Sept. 26 statement, the DHS said it was fighting back against Antifa violence and arrested dozens of “left-wing violent extremists” aligned to the group that have attacked law enforcement officials, killed civilians, and triggered riots across the country.

Such arrests include a 36-year-old citizen suspected of making a bomb threat on the ICE Dallas Field Office; extremists who ambushed and shot officers at the ICE facility in Prairieland, Texas; and an extremist who attempted to run over a Border Patrol agent with their car, DHS said.

DHS Assistant Secretary Tricia McLaughlin said federal law enforcement personnel have seen a 1,000 percent increase in assaults against them. However, this hasn’t stopped officers from upholding the rule of law, she said.

“Antifa and their friends haven’t stopped us. They’re not even slowing us down,” McLaughlin said.

Trump’s designation of Antifa as a domestic terror outfit has also drawn criticism.

In a Sept. 22 statement, Rep. Bennie G. Thompson (D-Miss.) said the U.S. government has never named a domestic terrorist organization in the history of the United States. Designating Antifa as such, which he said has no defined organizational structure or leadership, is “incorrect,” he said.

“It serves no purpose other than an excuse for the Trump administration to stifle dissent, investigate anyone—or any group—they don’t like, punish their enemies, and potentially label any American they want as a terrorist,” Thompson said.

Meanwhile, Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) introduced the Stop ANTIFA Act last month, aiming to codify Trump’s executive order designating Antifa as a domestic terror group, the lawmaker’s office said in a Sept. 30 statement.

The bill instructs the National Joint Terrorism Task Force to treat the group as domestic terrorists and put a stop to the outfit’s violent suppression of political speech and its destruction of the rule of law.

“Antifa has gotten away with its evils and terrorized cities across our country for far too long,” Scott said.

“President Trump was right to fearlessly call them out as the domestic terrorists they are and to take action to stop their evils around the nation and uncover the funding behind it. I am proud to codify the president’s actions.”

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The power bill crisis has gone mainstream in recent months, with soaring electricity prices epicentered across the Mid-Atlantic region. Legacy grids and misguided “green” energy policies have been colliding with surging new power demand from AI data centers. We first warned about this crisis in August 2024. Ignored at the time, it has taken more than a year for corporate media to catch up (read here) – now being framed as a “major political issue” in states across the region, most of which are controlled by Democrats. 

In one year, this will be the most popular chart on this site pic.twitter.com/h93gWXMoNL

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) August 11, 2025

A new report from Goldman Sachs, led by analyst Carly Davenport, sheds light on the surge in electricity costs sweeping across key U.S. regions, particularly the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and California, where affordability concerns are soaring just as utilities begin a historic capital-investment cycle. The situation has all the ingredients for a political reckoning: years of grid mismanagement under far-left leadership, which prioritized climate change ideology over reliability and aggressively retired stable fossil-fuel generation, have become a key driver of today’s affordability crisis. 

Davenport told clients that over the past three years, residential power bills jumped 29% in states like Maryland, Connecticut, Delaware, the District of Columbia, and California, roughly 20 percentage points above the Consumer Price Index, while regulated states such as Michigan, North Dakota, Arkansas, South Dakota, and Louisiana saw only about 5% growth. She pointed out that deregulated markets experienced higher power bill inflation due to capacity-price spikes, natural gas price volatility, and rising “public benefit” charges tied to climate change mandates. 

Davenport includes a Q&A section that adds more clarity about the unfolding affordability crisis:

What is driving this regional dispersion in bill inflation?

In the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic and California, we believe higher bill inflation has been a function of (1) tighter regional power markets as demand inflects from electrification, data centers, and reshoring, and as coal units are retired, driving higher capacity prices that are passed onto customers, (2) volatility in natural gas prices as well as supply constraints on domestic natural gas flows in certain regions, (3) public benefits charges that support state/federal mandates around energy efficiency, wildfire mitigation, and clean energy goals increasing on bills, and (4) higher delivery charges, as utilities invest in aging grid infrastructure. In the states that have seen lower inflation, robust local resource availability (coal/wind/gas) have helped keep electricity rates lower with ample supply.

Why does affordability matter for utilities?

Ultimately, affordability matters as it increases regulatory risk. If consumers are too constrained by high electricity bill levels, regulators might be less lenient in approving returns or rate increases for the utilities, whether they are in a regulated or competitive power market. We believe we are in the midst of a capital investment upcycle across the regulated utility space, which can translate into higher earnings growth for utility companies, but this opportunity will need to be balanced with customer bill affordability. Stocks most exposed to states that had the five highest bill inflation in the past three years include EIX, PCG, EXC, SRE and ES, and those exposed to the lower bill inflation states include AEP, WEC and XEL (Exhibit 2).

We believe the affordability concern is largely regional, and forecast national bill inflation as broadly in line with history, but higher capex poses risks. On a national level, resi utility bills have lagged CPI since 2008, largely due to declining usage trends, but in 2024, both usage and price inflation inflected, driving bills above CPI. Going forward, we expect customer bills to grow in line with historical levels of 3% through 2029 on average, based on our published utility capex forecasts and a number of other key factors we take into account such as electricity sales, customer growth and gas prices. However, if utility capex accelerates above our base case scenario, bill inflation could reach 6% through 2029, which increases regulatory risk for the regulated utilities, in our view.

The analyst explains the origins of this mess…

We believe the higher inflation in the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic and California regions are being caused by: (1) tighter regional supply/demand as load growth inflects from electrification, data centers, and reshoring, driving higher capacity prices that are passed onto customers, alongside coal plant retirements, (2) volatility in natural gas prices as well as supply constraints on domestic natural gas flows, (3) public benefits charges that support state/federal mandates around energy efficiency, wildfire mitigation, and clean energy goals, and (4) higher delivery charges, as utilities invest in aging grid infrastructure. In the states that have seen lower inflation, robust local resource availability (coal/wind/gas) have helped keep electricity rates lower given abundant supply.

Power bill inflation appears to be regional, not present on a national level, which means political pressure will be localized.

U.S. state map of regulated/deregulated/partially regulated regions

States in red below had the highest accumulated bill inflation over the past 3yrs, while states in green had the lowest bill inflation in the same period

The focus should be on the political ramifications at the local level – specifically, how skyrocketing power bills will impact voter sentiment with those in power that pushed endless amounts of fake climate change narratives to ram through green policies – loot the Treasury with climate bills (recall $20bln of taxpayer funds frozen at Citi, slated for Biden-Harris regime to funnel into shady NGOs) – all while making the grid more fragile (read this) in the era of AI data centers. 

Do people realize there is literally zero chance of this happening? https://t.co/EMMQtMcCjX pic.twitter.com/j4AicQBqEv

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 8, 2025

ZeroHedge Pro Subs can find the complete report in the usual place, full of more graphics and charts about regional power crises.

Via Middle East Eye

Hamas has warned that Tony Blair would not be welcome in any role in governing Gaza following the commencement of a ceasefire in the enclave. Speaking to Sky News, senior Hamas official Basem Naim said he welcomed US President Donald Trump’s involvement in bringing about an end to the two-year war.

However, he said that there could be no role for the former British prime minister in the governance of Gaza, despite Trump’s previously announced support for Blair’s involvement. “When it comes to Tony Blair, unfortunately, we Palestinians, Arabs and Muslims, and maybe others around the world have bad memories of him,” Naim said. “We can still remember his role in killing, causing thousands or millions of deaths to innocent civilians in Afghanistan and Iraq.”

As official envoy for the Middle East Quartet (US, Russia, European Union and UN) between 2007 and 2015, Blair was also previously tasked with attempting to bring about a solution to the Palestine-Israel question, something he was unable to achieve.

Last month, various media outlets reported that Blair was in discussions to lead a transitional authority in the Gaza Strip as part of a US-backed plan for post-war governance. The plan would establish a transitional authority in Gaza for up to five years, excluding both Hamas and the Palestinian Authority.

Under the reported proposal, the authority would hold “supreme political and legal authority” over Gaza during the interim period. Hamas has rejected the involvement of Blair in governing Gaza, citing in part his previous failures in the region.

Thousands of Palestinians began returning to northern Gaza on Friday after a ceasefire took effect, following Israel and Hamas’s approval of a deal to “end the war” and exchange prisoners.

The Israeli military said the ceasefire officially began at 12pm local time (9am GMT) after the completion of its withdrawal to agreed-upon lines of the first phase. There was no immediate comment from Hamas. The Israeli government ratified the agreement on Friday morning, just hours after Hamas announced that a deal had been reached.

Israel’s public broadcaster, Kan, on Thursday published a leaked copy of the agreement’s first phase signed in Egypt, which states that the war would “immediately end” once approved by Israel.

Trump is expected to visit Egypt over the weekend to attend an official signing ceremony, followed by a visit to Israel on Monday. 

On Thursday, Hamas chief negotiator Khalil al-Hayya confirmed that the Palestinian movement had also approved the agreement to end the war. He added that the United States and other mediators had provided guarantees that the signing of the deal would mean the war “has ended indefinitely”.

However, Israeli air strikes, artillery fire and gunfire were reported in Gaza City and Khan Younis on Friday morning. No injuries were reported.

Israeli forces also carried out bombings in Gaza on Thursday, after mediators announced a deal had been reached, killing at least eight Palestinians.

A long-left-leaning billionaire philanthropist has triggered San Francisco politicians by praising President Trump’s performance in office — and even more so by urging Trump to deploy National Guard soldiers to suppress the city’s rampant criminality.

“I fully support the president,” said Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff in an interview with the New York Times. “I think he’s doing a great job.” That puts Benioff at stark odds with his fellow San Franciscans: In a June Public Policy Institute of California poll, 77% of Bay Area residents disapproved of Trump’s performance. Benioff recounted his recent honor of sitting across a table from Trump at a state dinner hosted by King Charles at Windsor Castle, and said he used the dinner to tell Trump “how grateful I am for everything he’s doing.”

The Times notes that Benioff, a major benefactor of San Francisco, has leaned toward the left side of the spectrum — for example, urging other business leaders to help the homeless rather than gripe about their existence. Now, however, as homeless, drugged-out criminals are destroying San Francisco, he’s ready for soldiers and Humvees to pour into the city he says is woefully under-policed — figuring it needs another 1,000 cops on top of the 1,500 that are currently on the force. 

The situation has compelled Benioff to take matters into his own hands, where his upcoming Dreamforce conference is concerned: He’s hiring hundreds of off-duty cops to secure the area around the San Francisco convention area. “You’ll see. When you walk through San Francisco next week, there will be cops on every corner,” Benioff said. “That’s how it used to be.” Until the city’s police force is beefed up, Benioff endorses the use of National Guard soldiers. “We don’t have enough cops, so if they can be cops, I’m all for it,” he said. 

That’s a particularly interesting stance, given Benioff is close friends with California Gov. Gavin Newsom — so close, in fact, that Benioff is a godfather to one of the Newsom’s children. As Benioff endorses Trump deployment of National Guard troops to San Francisco, Newsom is suing the Trump administration over the deployment of Guard soldiers to Los Angeles. Benioff’s left-leaning resume also includes his hosting of a major 2016 fundraiser for Hillary Clinton at his $31 million mansion alongside the Presidio, and his personal bankrolling of a city ballot measure to raise taxes on businesses to fund welfare for the homeless.  

“This is a slap in the face to San Francisco,” Matt Dorsey, a member of the city’s Board of Supervisors, wrote on X. “It’s insulting to our cops, and it’s honestly galling to those of us who’ve been fighting hard over the last few years to fully staff our [police department]…We don’t NEED the National Guard here.” State Sen. Scott Wiener, who’s best known for pushing the LGBTQ agenda, chimed in, saying “We neither need nor want an illegal military occupation in San Francisco.” Assemblyman Matt Haney decried Benioff’s “support [of] a direct assault and occupation of our city,” while the Times described San Francisco DA Brooke Jenkins as “livid” over Benioff’s stance on troops. 

To be fair to him, how could Benioff have anticipated that taxing all the businesses and giving the $$ to vagrants would result in many fewer businesses and many more vagrants?

— Moses Kagan (@moseskagan) October 11, 2025

It’s safe to say a Benioff aide anticipated the backlash: The Times story about the phone interview with him aboard his private plane concludes in amusing fashion: 

At the end of the interview, he turned to a public relations executive. He could be heard asking why her mouth was wide open and if he had said anything he shouldn’t have. “What about the political questions?” he asked. “Too spicy?” Then he hung up. 

San Francisco Mayor last month: There will no longer be an option for people to sleep and use drugs on our streets.

San Francisco today:
https://t.co/0RAkC3h8Mg

— Kevin Dalton (@TheKevinDalton) October 11, 2025

In August, Trump teased the possibility of sending troops to San Francisco, telling reporters in the Oval Office, “You look at what the Democrats have done to San Francisco — they’ve destroyed it...we’ll clean that one up, too.”

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Submitted by QTR’s Fringe Finance

Browsing social media last night and this morning, I was greeted with dozens of examples of people posting their “loss porn,” as the Reddit traders would call it, with one P/L after another showing huge losses.

Some traders posted ominous things about blowing up their crypto accounts, forced liquidations, and massive losses. Some even also posted, insinuating they were considering self-harm. I posted some examples on my blog here.

First is the fact that things can change any day in the market without notice—as I have been saying for years and explained in my comprehensive wrap-up yesterday after the market closed: The Columbus Day Massacre: My Thoughts

If you’ve spent the last decade shit-posting seasoned investors like Jim Chanos or Peter Schiff on Twitter and just can’t figure out why they can’t see things your way because you’ve always been right, now would be a good place to see if any of their skepticism or warnings about markets can make their way through your blood-brain barrier.

If you got smacked around on Friday but didn’t take a total loss, turn a shitty day into an asset by starting to tell yourself the honest truth—you don’t know everything, and none of us do—instead of whatever lie you’ve been telling yourself about how you’re going to be able to outperform forever because you happen to have caught the tail end of a nominal hyperinflationary boom that could very well end in the United States dollar dying while your ego portion of your brain was still mushy and developing, like an infant’s skull.

It’s a great weekend to ask yourself, “Am I quickly disregarding fraud warnings about a company issued by a man who teaches a class on fraud at Yale and who called Enron’s collapse ahead of time?”

Or, “Am I quick to ridicule someone’s stance on Bitcoin or gold, despite the fact they’ve been in the game for decades and have amassed enormous personal wealth and one of the best grasps of free-market economics out of anybody in finance today?”

If the answer is yes to either of these, maybe it’s time to act a little less like a hyena and a little more like an adult. Buck up. Act like you’ve been here before. Take the pain. Learn from the pain. Come back better.

After all, the stock market is an adult game with real wins and real losses.

Third, assuming that half of posts like these are real it’s stunning to see, after simply one 3% drawdown in the market—after we have done nothing but rage to all-time highs nonstop since the market plunge in April.

It is proof positive that investors have been seduced with insanely unrealistic expectations about risk and how markets work — as I wrote in February: This Next Market Crash Will Break Our Fragile Brains

This, as I have been saying for years, is a product of batshit insane monetary policy—which is set based on keeping the stock market at all-time highs, regardless of the two supposed mandates that the Fed has.

Everybody who has been in markets for a couple of decades has learned these lessons the hard way. Nobody knows more about being an arrogant, hubris-filled dickhead and getting a comeuppance multiple times more than I do. At some point, the market humbles you; you throw your hands in the air and surrender to the idea that there are people who know more than you, and that the market and its external driving factors are things that are going to be impossible to always predict.

When I was clearing out my old podcast episodes at the beginning of the year, when I decided I wasn’t going to do the podcast anymore, I left a few up for good measure—a few of my select favorites. One of them was a podcast I did with my friend Sang Lucci about blowing up your trading account, how often we’ve done it, and how it is a rite of passage along the way. Skip to about 25 minutes in when we get to it. I left it up in hopes that anybody going through the same thing we had gone through could take some comfort in listening to it.

Finally, to the extent posts about self-harm online are serious, I want to speak directly to anybody who’s having such feelings and reassure them we’ve all been there and they are not alone. They can always DM me on Twitter, shoot me a message on Substack, or contact me through other means, and I’ll try to do my best to remind them that, as Joey Knish says in Rounders, it’s not the end of the world. “From time to time, everybody goes bust.”

And to my longtime followers—what does it say that I’m writing posts urging people thinking about doing the unthinkable not to do so over one 3% drawdown?

This is exactly the type of situation I’ve been talking about for years: an unexpected move lower in markets at a time when investors are the least mentally prepared to ever handle it. Hope everybody keeps their head on a swivel and ducks and weaves their way through any continuing volatility this coming week.

QTR’s Disclaimer: Please read my full legal disclaimer on my About page here. This post represents my opinions only. In addition, please understand I am an idiot and often get things wrong and lose money. I may own or transact in any names mentioned in this piece at any time without warning. Contributor posts and aggregated posts have been hand selected by me, have not been fact checked and are the opinions of their authors. They are either submitted to QTR by their author, reprinted under a Creative Commons license with my best effort to uphold what the license asks, or with the permission of the author.

This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any stocks or securities, just my opinions. I often lose money on positions I trade/invest in. I may add any name mentioned in this article and sell any name mentioned in this piece at any time, without further warning. None of this is a solicitation to buy or sell securities. I may or may not own names I write about and are watching. Sometimes I’m bullish without owning things, sometimes I’m bearish and do own things. Just assume my positions could be exactly the opposite of what you think they are just in case. If I’m long I could quickly be short and vice versa. I won’t update my positions. All positions can change immediately as soon as I publish this, with or without notice and at any point I can be long, short or neutral on any position. You are on your own. Do not make decisions based on my blog. I exist on the fringe. If you see numbers and calculations of any sort, assume they are wrong and double check them. I failed Algebra in 8th grade and topped off my high school math accolades by getting a D- in remedial Calculus my senior year, before becoming an English major in college so I could bullshit my way through things easier.

The publisher does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in this page. These are not the opinions of any of my employers, partners, or associates. I did my best to be honest about my disclosures but can’t guarantee I am right; I write these posts after a couple beers sometimes. I edit after my posts are published because I’m impatient and lazy, so if you see a typo, check back in a half hour. Also, I just straight up get shit wrong a lot. I mention it twice because it’s that important.

Two weeks ago the FBI announced that 489 ‘violent criminals’ had been arrested in Memphis over a 60-day period, which included 118 guns seized, in a multi-agency effort involving the FBI, DEA, Memphis PD, ICE, Homeland Security and other agencies.

Shortly after this announcement, Memphis law enforcement coordinated with DHS to deploy the National Guard to Memphis to assist the effort.

In response, 30-year-old Tennessee state Rep. Justin Pearson – who just launched a Democratic primary against longtime Rep. Steve Cohen, referred to the National Guard deployment in Memphis as a “military occupation.”

“I think in this moment in time, where even our own city is under military occupation … We have to stand up, we have to speak up, and we have to have people who are going to fight back and fight for our communities,” said Pearson last week.

Watch:

Far-left Tennessee state Rep. Justin Pearson claims that the National Guard deployment to Memphis is a “military occupation.”

In reality, since the beginning of the Memphis Safe Task Force, more than 500 criminals have been arrested, including gang members and sex offenders. pic.twitter.com/WYtAbx4QyJ

— RNC Research (@RNCResearch) October 11, 2025

He said it again on MSNBC…

Far-left Tennessee state Rep. Justin Pearson claims that the National Guard deployment to Memphis is a “military occupation.”

In reality, since the beginning of the Memphis Safe Task Force, more than 500 criminals have been arrested, including gang members and sex offenders. pic.twitter.com/WYtAbx4QyJ

— RNC Research (@RNCResearch) October 11, 2025

Pearson’s comments echo those of Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker (D), who went to ‘war’ with the Trump administration after Texas National Guard troops arrived in Illinois on Tuesday, tasked with protecting federal personnel and property as anti-immigration protests rage. 

Pritzker condemned the deployment, calling it “Trump’s invasion,” and calling on TX Governor Greg Abbott (R) to withdraw his support. Meanwhile, the state of Illinois – joined by the city of Chicago – filed a lawsuit in federal court to attempt to stop the deployment. 

Pritzker also suggested that America is currently witnessing the same thing as the Germans did in the early days of the Third Reich. 

“In the early days of the Nazi regime, they started slowly but surely taking away people’s rights,” Pritzker babbled during an interview.

“And what we’re seeing now is the very same thing,” he further declared.

JUST IN: Illinois gov JB Pritzker says America is currently witnessing what the early days of the Nazi regime looked like.

Just one week ago, Pritzker said it was dangerous for the Trump admin to call Democrats “fascists” as he now equates the Trump admin to Nazis.

“In the… pic.twitter.com/6jHKP2i944

— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) October 7, 2025

In short, Democrats are ratcheting up the drama and actively opposing federal law enforcement efforts.  

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Authored by Hannah Frankman Hood via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Studies suggest that today’s kids get an average of 4–7 minutes of unstructured time outside a day, while they spend 7–8 hours a day in front of screens.

With a youth mental health crisis also sweeping the nation (rates of anxiety, depression, suicidal ideation, and diagnosed mental health disorders like ADHD are all at record highs), it’s not hard to imagine that the correlation between kids’ indoor confinement and their mental health struggles is more than a coincidence.

The mental health ramifications of too much screen time are easy to track, and are heavily studied. But the downstream effects of not enough time outside are equally startling. Free play and unstructured time are foundational to a child’s well-being, and in America, our kids aren’t getting it.

Seven minutes a day is barely enough time to begin to imagine the premise of a game or an imaginary adventure. Seven minutes a day is barely the amount of time it takes to walk back and forth from the bus stop. It’s not even long enough to go for a walk around the block.

Why Aren’t the Kids Outside?

The twenty-first century has provided us with a perfect storm of conditions keeping kids away from the outdoors: screens are alluring, the outside is “dangerous,” and parents encourage their kids towards sedentary “for your own good” activities (math olympiad! French tutoring! after school clubs!).

Parents fear the dangers of the outdoors. In the modern world, everything from crime statistics to urban design itself lead parents to keep their kids on a short leash. Urban settings don’t have much room for free play; parks and playgrounds and other child-centric outdoor spaces are strangely sparse, as if urban designers wanted a world without kids in it. More apartment complexes are built with dog-washing stations than playgrounds.

The modern world seems to have been built by people who forgot what childhood is, and fears of crime keep parents nervous about letting their kids freely use the spaces that do exist.

But separate from kid-centric space or the lack thereof, kids are busy. Their days are consumed by ever-expanding school requirements, structured extracurricular activities, and of course the ever-present lure of screen time—to the point that even in suburban neighborhoods with big backyards, kids are barely ever venturing outside.

Which is how we end up with kids getting seven to eight hours of screen time a day, but only four to seven minutes of unstructured free time outside—the latter of which people of our grandparents’ generations couldn’t have even imagined.

The “unstructured” part is important—“time outside” in a blanket sense isn’t enough. Spending an hour on the field for soccer practice gives kids the benefit of fresh air and sunshine and physical movement, but it isn’t giving them the psychological benefits of free play.

Unstructured means time and space away from the rules and instructions of an adult. It exists fully in the wild and whimsical world of the child: free, unimpeded, child-directed, and often tinged with a heavy dose of imagination. There are no set goals of the kind that exist in PE class or a sports club. It’s pure and unfettered, and it’s a biologically hardwired need for children’s development.

Mental Health Crisis in Childhood

Parents worry about the dangers of the outside world, but what about the dangers of the on-screen world, where grooming and exploitation are common occurrences, where adults behind screens pose as other children and talk to young people too naive to know what to watch out for? What about the physical dangers of a sedentary life?

Seventy-seven percent of American youth ages 17–24 are ineligible for military service. Thirty-three percent of 17–24 year olds are ineligible due to obesity. Of the young people who meet the weight requirements, another 25 percent don’t meet the physical fitness standards. Other physical conditions and mental health disorders are also leading causes of ineligibility.

The poor health of America’s youth has many factors—poor diet, exposure to environmental toxins, a rise in chronic conditions, and countless other variables. But with 30 percent of elementary schools no longer requiring daily recess, and 28 states without any requirements around recess at all, neither schools nor parents are consistently defending kids’ free outdoor time.

And what about the psychological dangers of not getting time outside to play?

Twenty percent of American adolescents ages 12–17 report experiencing symptoms of anxiety in the past two weeks, while 18 percent of adolescents report symptoms of depression. Forty percent of high schoolers report persistent feelings of sadness or hopelessness. In 2023, the CDC found that 9 percent of adolescents had attempted suicide.

Of course, not all of this traces back to time spent outside, nor lack of it. But as we’re depriving kids of a fundamental part of their development, such a deficit might be at least partially to blame for the negative outcomes that follow.

Kids Need Free Play Outdoors

As researcher and psychologist Peter Gray says, “Children are designed, by nature, to play and explore on their own, independently of adults.” Gray is a fierce defender of kids’ physiological and psychological need for play, and his book “Free to Learn” makes the case for the importance of self-directed time for a child’s development, with ripple effects into everything from academic performance to life outcomes.

Gray isn’t alone. As Lenore Skenazy argues in her book “Free Range Kids,” children need exactly what the term “free range” suggests—the ability to run wild and be free, not cooped up in the cages created by four walls and an adult’s supervision. Skenazy made national headlines after letting her 10-year-old ride the New York City subway home alone (unstructured and unsupervised outdoor time at its finest). Those headlines weren’t the good kind. Reporters were quick to title her “America’s worst mom,” and a media feeding frenzy followed (an unwatched child, normal mere decades prior, had become a scandal).

And yet, Skenazy was giving her son what so many others suffer for want of: freedom.

Letting your kids have outdoor time doesn’t require something as radical as giving them free range of New York City. Most parents would understandably balk at that. But there’s a wide swath of options between “wander New York City alone” and “have no time outside at all,” and frustratingly few find themselves in that median.

Even programs that give kids time outside—things like private schools with on-campus gardens, forest schools, or homeschool groups focused on time in nature—are considered frivolous, peculiar, and radical, respectively.

The American Academy of Pediatrics recommends a minimum of 30–60 minutes of outdoor free play for children two and under. The CDC suggests a minimum of three hours of unstructured and vigorous free play for preschoolers (ages 3–5), with at least an hour of that time being spent outdoors, and at least an hour of vigorous physical activity (preferably outdoors) for school-aged children (ages 6–17).

These are all recommended baselines from some of America’s most mainstream health authorities. Many independent psychologists, developmental experts, and education researchers would consider those numbers to be the bare minimum.

Charlotte Mason, the nineteenth-century British educator whose methodology is still used today by large swaths of homeschoolers, argued that children should spend four to six hours a day outside whenever possible: “Never be within doors when you can rightly be without.”

Mason didn’t see outdoor time as “recess,” but as a fundamental part of a child’s education in its own right. For the early years, she considered it even more important than formal instruction, helping children develop their attentiveness, wonder, and observational skills. She advocated nature walks, observations of weather patterns and wildlife, keeping a nature journal, and long uninterrupted swaths of free play.

This unstructured playtime is part of the whimsy of childhood, but it also plays a critical role. Free play supports kids’ cognitive development, imagination, and executive function. Physical activity develops strength, coordination, and motor skills, and is shown to reduce anxiety. Studies suggest exposure to the microbiome of the dirt leads to a strengthened immune system, and can decrease stress. Exposure to natural sunlight supports a child’s natural circadian rhythm.

And of course, exposure to sunlight also improves vitamin D levels—the lack of which can cause everything from fatigue and a weakened immune system to, you guessed it, anxiety and depression.

Our kids are struggling, physically and psychologically, for want of time for free play and time outdoors. That fresh air and freedom, no matter how basic it seems, is fundamental to their health and success, as necessary to their health (if not their survival) as air and water.

Our parents and grandparents knew this by intuition; our forebears never considered it could even be a question, but our culture has slowly let it erode to become only the tiniest fraction of our kids’ lives.

Free play and time outdoors is indivisible from health and success. If we want to raise a healthy, happy, and thriving generation, then their outdoor time is a resource we must defend.

From the American Institute for Economic Research (AIER)

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

Market Crack Or The Beginning Of Something Bigger

The data had been sending signals that few wanted to acknowledge all week. Speculative behavior had reached extremes, valuations were stretched, and positioning was one-sided. Retail traders had returned to chasing options and meme stocks with the same recklessness seen in 2021. As we noted previously, the speculative behavior had reached records on many levels.

As recently noted by Goldman Sachs:

“In fact, if you look at the spread of single stock volatility to index volatility, it’s at one of the widest levels we have ever seen.”

Furthermore, systematic flows had increased equity exposure, reinforcing a feedback loop of rising prices and falling volatility. Many algorithmic trading strategies are volatility-sensitive; therefore, when markets trend upward with low volatility, these strategies increase exposure. This creates a feedback loop where price action drives further buying.

However, when volatility spikes or prices fall, the same models reverse direction and sell, potentially accelerating a downturn, which is why the market crack on Friday was so severe. In fact, we warned about the potential of this event in Friday mornings #DailyMarketCommentary. To wit:

“While we are not bearish on the market currently, the risk is building that a correction will occur. Unfortunately, given the high levels of complacency and offside positioning, the selloff could be sharper than many expect. Furthermore, given the high levels of investor sentiment, a downturn of 10% will “feel” much worse than it actually is. It is in these environments where investors make the most mistakes.”

Lastly, retail trading volume had climbed significantly, focusing on leveraged ETFs and meme stocks. Many trades are based on social media narratives, not balance sheet strength or revenue forecasts. This shift in behavior to chasing poor fundamentals and high volatility stocks has historically marked peaks, not bottoms.

The setup was classic: overconfidence, leverage, concentration, and it only needed a trigger. Trump’s tariff comments became the catalyst, but the fragility was already embedded. High-growth names, semiconductors, and thematic ETFs bore the brunt. Defensive sectors caught a bid, while yields fell as traders rushed to safety.

This wasn’t a crash but a market crack that happens when everyone is on the same side of the boat. On Friday, the same crowd that had been relentlessly pushing prices higher moved in the other direction. The reason the market crack was so severe reflects our previous comments that “Sellers live higher, buyers live lower.”

“The stock market is always a function of buyers and sellers, each negotiating to make a transaction. While there is a buyer for every seller, the question is always at “what price?” 

In the current bull market, few people are willing to sell, so buyers must keep bidding up prices to attract a seller to make a transaction. As long as this remains the case and exuberance exceeds logic, buyers will continue to pay higher prices to get into the positions they want to own. Such is the very definition of the “greater fool” theory.

However, at some point, for whatever reason, this dynamic will change. Buyers will become more scarce as they refuse to pay a higher price. When sellers realize the change, they will rush to sell to a diminishing pool of buyers. Eventually, sellers will begin to “panic sell” as buyers evaporate and prices plunge.”

Whether this reversal deepens depends on what comes next. Earnings, macro data (if it arrives), and liquidity could offset the fears of trade escalation. But the takeaway is clear: the market crack puts investors at risk of a deeper corrective cycle if near-term supports fail.

Was This The Beginning Of The End?

Was Friday’s market crack the beginning of the end of the melt-up phase?

That answer is probably “no.”

Paul Tudor Jones recently highlighted the dual nature of the current environment. He expects a powerful rally ahead, but also warned that we are entering the final stages of the bull market as a market melt-up ensues. While his views were that gains would be frontloaded, they would be followed by a violent reversal. Of course, such should be unsurprising, as that is how all speculative market phases and meltups eventually end.

However, that does not mean markets would have some volatility along the way. As Jones noted, the final year of a market meltup often produces the most substantial gains. But even those gains tend to come with some increased volatility. We see this in the parallels to 1999 that we discussed last week. To wit:

“Every bubble has a story at its core. In 1999, that story was the internet: a transformational technology that would reshape commerce, communications, and culture. Investors saw the future, bid prices into the stratosphere, and assumed profits would inevitably follow. In 2025, the story is artificial intelligence, which carries the same irresistible promise of reshaping industries, creating productivity booms, and unlocking new frontiers. The parallels are hard to miss, along with the current price action.

Like the dot-com era, today’s market is being driven by breathtaking growth assumptions. Back then, Cisco traded north of 100x earnings on the belief it was selling the “backbone of the internet.” Pets.com and Webvan raised hundreds of millions, only to collapse when business models proved unsustainable. The psychology, then and now, is driven by the “fear of missing out.” Investors rush in because the narrative is too powerful to ignore: However, “if AI changes everything, you can’t afford not to own it.“

The market crack has likely not broken the critical tailwind of the bull market as liquidity remains abundant. Fiscal deficits are large, the Fed remains dovish, and global central banks are cutting rates. All of these support continued price appreciation, but the same ingredients that drive the melt-up create instability. That instability was made evident in the market crack on Friday.

The reversal on Friday has not broken the bullish trend, yet. For investors, the risk is not in being wrong directionally, but in timing. Such is why over the last few weeks, we have repeatedly discussed the market’s negative divergences, the risk of chasing momentum, and the offside positioning of investors in general. As is always the case, momentum markets reward participation until they don’t. When everyone is positioned similarly, reversals have no buffer, the exits are narrower, and the market cracks are larger. This is particularly the case with virtually every asset class hitting all-time highs, from large-cap stocks to international and emerging markets to gold and bitcoin.

Everyone has a “narrative” about why their particular asset of choice is rising; however, they can’t all be correct. Furthermore, the eventual reversal is also correlated when all asset classes become highly correlated.

The Risks Of Narratives

As noted, everyone has a narrative for why their favorite asset class is going higher. Leon Cooperman recently warned that we have entered the phase of the bull market that Warren Buffett feared most. He cited Buffett’s warning:

“Once a market reaches the point where everyone makes money regardless of strategy, the crowd shifts from rational investing to fear of missing out.”

In Cooperman’s view, earnings or interest rate dynamics no longer support the rally; it is just the price action itself. Investors are buying only because prices are rising. That kind of behavior never ends well. As he discussed, valuations, like the Buffett Indicator, and crowd behavior, are key reasons for concern. The Buffett Indicator, the ratio of total market capitalization to GDP, has crossed 200 percent. That level exceeds historical extremes, suggesting that the tether between equities and the real economy broke.

Furthermore, Simon White at Bloomberg recently noted that we have entered the “Bad News Is Good News” regime.

“At the end of a stock-market rally, just before a consolidation or a correction, there is typically a period where the market reacts positively to bad news. That’s a regime we just entered.

Calling a precise top is a mug’s game, but it is often quite clear when a market is in the process of making a top. There are several reasons to think that is the case today, and we now have another one to add to the pot. Towards the end of uptrends, stocks typically start to react positively even to bad economic news. This is generally due to the reaction function of the Federal Reserve, where the market assumes it is more likely policy will be loosened as the economy weakens so, somewhat perversely, the equity market ignores the slowdown and rallies on the expectation of looser financial conditions.”

As he concludes:

“Previous times around the last three major market tops, this regime has been in play. It is often preceded by a “good news is good news” regime (white line in chart), where stocks intuitively rally when it looks like the economy is strengthening. If we roll the chart further back, it shows the “bad news is good news” regime was in play before the 2011 and 2015 tops, too.

However, there are a couple of caveats. Firstly, as we can see above, the “bad news is good” regimes can last for several months before the market corrects. This time could be no different. Secondly, in the 2000s and 2010s there were several periods where the “bad news is good” regime came mid-cycle, ie, in the middle of the rally.

It’s possible that’s the case today, but with potentially huge overinvestment in the AI sphere, all-time high valuations, and increasing signs of speculative froth, you wouldn’t want to bank on it.“

As we saw on Friday, small shocks can create significant price moves in these environments when fundamentals no longer anchor pricing. Bob Farrell once noted that crowd behavior is naturally unstable; “when all experts agree, something else tends to happen.”  All the “experts” and investors expect higher prices on everything.

That one-sided bias, and most importantly, “rationalized narratives” to justify overpaying for an asset, increases the probability that even minor disappointments cause outsized reactions.

This is not about fear. It is about risk math. Expected returns are lower, volatility is rising, and the asymmetry now favors caution.

🔑 Key Catalysts Next Week

The economic calendar for the upcoming week was expected to provide critical updates on inflation and wage growth. However, due to the ongoing government shutdown, the release of major reports from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Census Bureau is uncertain. If not resolved by early next week, most federal economic data, including CPI and PPI, will be delayed. That removes essential guidance at a time when investor positioning is heavily dependent on a soft-landing narrative.

Below is the updated calendar, based on current scheduling and shutdown contingencies:

Markets will monitor any resolution to the shutdown early in the week. There is little hope of any resolution to the shutdown this coming week, so traders will be forced to rely on Fed guidance and earnings to interpret macro conditions. Speaking of earnings, they will likely carry more influence than usual. With macro data paused, forward guidance and margin commentary from large-cap tech, semiconductors, and banks will shape sentiment. If guidance softens or margins compress, equity markets could face pressure, particularly with positioning heavy in AI and high-beta growth.

Without inflation data, volatility could increase as investor expectations become more speculative. Rate assumptions are increasingly disconnected from policy statements. Once released, that gap may close quickly if CPI or PPI points away from disinflation. Until then, markets will be trading on limited visibility.