Oil Plummets As Trump Says Iran War ‘Very Far Ahead Of Schedule’ & So Could Be Over Soon

Summary:

• Trump tells CBS “the war could be over soon.” Oil prices drop on the headline.

• Lebanon wants direct peace talks with Israel to end fighting but Israeli rejects it, also amid US skepticism: Axios.

• Trump says too soon to talk about seizing Iran’s oil but does not rule it out, tells NBC.

• Analyst consensus on question of potentially protracted conflict: Iran Signals a Fight to the End With Appointment of Khamenei’s Son

• Senator Graham: “The American Embassy is being evacuated in Riyadh because of sustained attacks by Iran against the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.”

• Timeline to end Iran war? Trump signals decision will be only after ‘mutual’ decision with Netanyahu.

• Trump Truth Social post calls for Australia to give Iran National Woman’s Soccer team Asylum, but it remains unclear if the whole team is actually requesting it, or if individuals are.

• Iranian official to Al Jazeera: “we are able to continue the war for a long time and there is no room for diplomacy now.”

• G7 ‘closely monitoring’ energy markets, ‘ready’ to take necessary measures, including poss oil stockpile release.

• Younger, reportedly more ‘hardline’ Ayatollah takes command as regime stability continues: Military and political elites have pledged allegiance to Mojtaba Khamenei, who replaces his slain father as supreme leader and is viewed as a figure favored by the IRGC.

• Offramp, or more global shock & pain ahead? Trump after seeing oil prices: Short term oil prices, which will drop rapidly when the destruction of the Iran nuclear threat is over, is a very small price to pay for U.S.A., and World, ONLY FOOLS WOULD THINK DIFFERENTLY!

• Threat of whole regional war ongoing: Turkey says second Iranian ballistic missile shot down by NATO defenses in airspace, but then NATO quickly contradicts – saying no 2nd missile was intercepted.

• Nation-building, nation-smashing, divergent US-Israeli aims? More from Trump “…will work tirelessly to bring Iran back from the brink of destruction, making it economically bigger, better, and stronger than ever before.” But US officials distance themselves from big weekend attacks on Iranian oil.

• Iran shuts door on ceasefire talk possibility, accuses US of seeking ‘partition’: as several countries have begun mediation efforts; however Foreign Ministry says: “While military aggression continues, there is little room to talk about anything other than a decisive response.”

• CENTCOM confirms 8th US troop death; More Iranian missile/drone hits on Gulf sites, IDF ground operations expand inside Lebanon

* * *

Update(1545ET): President Trump just told CBS News that he believes the US-Israeli war with Iran is “very far ahead of schedule” and so it could be over soon. Considering this whole thing started with talk of a mere four day timeline, then quickly morphed to four or five weeks, before Hegseth declared eight weeks would be needed… is this the White House preparing for a quick draw down and off ramp? Here’s what Trump told CBS by phone:

“I think the war is very complete, pretty much,” he said. “They have no navy, no communications, they’ve got no air force. Their missiles are down to a scatter. Their drones are being blown up all over the place, including their manufacturing of drones. If you look, they have nothing left. There’s nothing left in a military sense.”

Oil rapidly dropped… down 30% from overnight highs:

Offramp brewing? Notice below there’s now no mention of removing the regime, and especially important is no mention of destroying the Iranian nuclear program. Additionally, no mention of destroying Iran’s ability to project power via proxy forces.

SECRETARY RUBIO: The goals of the mission against the Iranian regime are clear:
– Destroy their ability to launch missiles
– Destroy factories making these missiles
– Destroy their navy pic.twitter.com/KPUpMGNtDf

— Department of State (@StateDept) March 9, 2026

TRUMP JUST SAID THE WAR COULD SOON BE OVER pic.twitter.com/oJeyEjERrc

— Polymarket Money (@PolymarketMoney) March 9, 2026

* * *

Update(1240ET): Iran on Monday is seeking to showcase its continuity and ‘stability’ of government after a week of heavy US-Israeli bombardment failed to produce regime change. Instead, Tehran is vowing to fight back, saying it can keep the war going for as long as needed. Analysts have pointed out Iran needs to inflict a cost on the US and Israel, fearing it will just be attacked again somewhere down the line, even if years from now. 

And yet, Trump admin officials have been signaling the American public there won’t be a protracted war. But on this big looming question, The Wall Street Journal is out Monday with the following ominous headline suggesting a lengthy conflict ahead: Iran Signals a Fight to the End With Appointment of Khamenei’s Son…

The elevation of Mojtaba Khamenei, a conservative long close to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, shows that Trump’s efforts so far to cow the regime into surrender have failed. It also appears to have put hard-liners in firm control of the country, with moderate and reformist factions long marginalized. The 56-year old Khamenei is expected to take a confrontational stance toward the West.

His appointment also shows that Iran won’t acquiesce to Trump’s demand that he approve the country’s new top cleric. Trump told Axios last week that “Khamenei’s son is unacceptable to me.”

The younger Khamenei’s ascendance “suggests the continuation of the same old strategy: repression at home and resistance internationally,” said Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa program at Chatham House. 

There remains the question of if US and Israeli goals and objectives are truly aligned on the Iran war. Some of Trump’s latest remarks are cause for concern, and highlight the aforementioned question: “Iran was going to destroy Israel and everything else around it. We’ve worked together. We’ve destroyed a country that wanted to destroy Israel,” Trump asserted.

The President indicated that he would keep the ultimate prerogative but while consulting directly with Netanyahu. “I think it’s mutual, a little bit. We’ve been talking. I’ll make a decision at the right time, but everything’s going to be taken into account.” Some admin officials are likely looking for a quick exit ramp, which would probably involve a politically expedient moment to declare ‘victory’ and get out. But will the Israelis cooperate when/if that moment comes?

Some establishment thinktanks in the US are meanwhile taking note that the administration is struggling with an exit strategy. For example, via the NY-based Soufan Center:

Yet, experts and global officials are quick to point out that all layers of Iran’s existing power structure oppose U.S. influence in Iran and the broader region. Regime officials differ only by degree, and the opportunities to mimic the transition achieved in Venezuela are narrow. When addressing reports last week that Mojtaba Khamenei, the newly announced Supreme Leader, was favored to succeed his father, Trump said the pick would be “unacceptable.” Axios quoted him as saying: “We want someone that will bring harmony and peace to Iran…They are wasting their time. Khamenei’s son is a lightweight. I have to be involved in the appointment, like with Delcy [Rodríguez] in Venezuela.” 

⚡️Massive Israeli-U.S airstrikes on Sarandaj, Iran pic.twitter.com/6SNOYb11hU

— War Monitor (@WarMonitors) March 9, 2026

* * *

Iran’s military and political leadership has reportedly pledged allegiance to Mojtaba Khamenei, who as we reported was named Sunday to replace his slain father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, as the country’s new supreme leader. The relatively young 56-year old is not some Delcy Rodriguez character, as he’s a military veteran of the eight year Iran-Iraq war and saw his wife Zahra killed in an Israeli airstrike. He’s said to be the favored IRGC choice and more hardline than his father Ali Khamenei.

The United States and Israel continue to unleash their mass bombing campaign across Iran, with explosions reported in Qom and Tehran hours after weekend Israeli strikes on oil facilities sent toxic smoke and even oil-infused rain across the Iranian capital. There’s been emerging reports suggesting there’s been some divergence or even distance on war aims and strategy between the US and Israel; however, this could also simply be war propaganda put out by officials – and yet probably President Trump doesn’t like to see oil go up in flames.

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei of course has a different theory. He said in a fresh statement that the attacks aim “at partitioning our country to take illegal possession of our oil riches.” He likely has Syria in mind, which Iran propped up on support of Assad for over a decade, but which has been permanently fractured, weakened, and a once significant Russian-supplied anti-air defense and missile arsenal utterly destroyed. The Syria model is something Israeli policy makers have talked about for decades, and Israel appears to be willing to smash an entire Iranian nation of 90+ million.

With this in mind, Baghaei emphasized there’s no halting the fight at this stage: “While military aggression continues, there is little room to talk about anything other than a decisive response,” he said Monday. Trump recently said operations won’t cease until there’s “unconditional surrender” by Iran.

Despite the massive scale of Israeli and American firepower, the strikes clearly have not dismantled the regime’s core structures, arranged precisely to endure such external shocks and maintain power. There’s also not yet been any clear examples of elite fractures. 

“We’re not seeing it, and we’re unlikely to see it,” Alan Eyre, a Farsi-speaking former diplomat who served on the U.S. nuclear negotiating team with Iran, told The Wall Street Journal. “The IRGC and other elites benefit the most from the status quo and would rather fight than switch.”

The same publication reviews that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, created in 1979 to safeguard the Islamic revolutionary system, includes about 190,000 active-duty troops. It is the most elite core defense perimeter running the war and reports directly to the Supreme Leader, even bypassing Iran’s conventional armed forces. In addition to this, there’s a sort of domestic IRGC internal security force over the country – roughly 600,000 irregular Basij militia members which can mobilize.

Day 9: Iran war is wider and longer:
— new, harder line leader in Iran
— new leader promises “new phase”
— 130+ drones by Iran last 24 hours
— US talking “limited” ground forces
—desalination hit in Bahrain
— oil $102, 4 yr high
— Americans disapprove, 59% v 41%
— Russian… pic.twitter.com/NaL8yvzEtr

— Robert A. Pape (@ProfessorPape) March 9, 2026

At a moment oil prices have surged more than 25% to kick off the week, their highest levels since mid-2022 as some major producers cut supplies and fears of prolonged shipping disruptions spread through global markets due to the expanding war – Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Sunday that Tehran would only contemplate a ceasefire for a permanent end to the war on its terms.

He reminded the West that Iran did accept a ceasefire which ended the 12-war in June. Of course, Iran is currently trying to inflict as much pain as possible on the US and Israel before such a potential end – also as Israel continues to experience rare severe damage to its cities, bases and infrastructure from ongoing ballistic missile attacks. On the question of an offramp, below are a couple of unconfirmed developments and headlines:

—Iran are seeking peace talks with the US with Qatar, Oman & Italy involved in mediation: CNN/News18

—Israeli Defense Officials Start to Ask How the Iran War Ends: WAPO (“A few senior officials in Israel are starting to voice concern about the escalating, open-ended attack on Iran – and suggesting possible exit ramps that might halt the war before it further damages the region and the global economy.”)

The Foreign Ministry’s Baghaei has further addressed President Trump’s ultra-provocative suggestion that Iran’s borders could change. Asked last week whether Iran’s map would look the same after the war, Trump said, “That I can’t tell you. Probably not.”

Baghaei blasted Trump for treating the world like a real estate deal: “The US president and others have made statements about many parts of the world – from Canada to other countries – as if the entire planet were prime real estate and governments were merely real estate agencies,” the FM spokesman said. “For the people of Iran, the map of the country represents everything that every Iranian is proud of and is willing to sacrifice their life to protect.”

As for ‘sacrifice’ – but on the US side of things, an eighth American soldier has now been confirmed killed, one day after Trump oversaw a dignified transfer ceremony at Dover Air Force Base. Interestingly Fox News has come under fire for its mishandling of the coverage.

Trump after seeing oil prices:

Short term oil prices, which will drop rapidly when the destruction of the Iran nuclear threat is over, is a very small price to pay for U.S.A., and World,

ONLY FOOLS WOULD THINK DIFFERENTLY! pic.twitter.com/GctyxuO6Up

— Clash Report (@clashreport) March 9, 2026

Current mass WH messaging…

The message just went out. “Short term pain, for long term gain.”

pic.twitter.com/DVZt2dolIi

— Clayton Morris (@ClaytonMorris) March 9, 2026

In the Gulf, Saudi Arabia has accused Iran of continuing attacks against the kingdom due to “baseless claims” – including allegations that fighter jets and refueling aircraft stationed in Saudi Arabia were preparing to join the war. This after on Saturday Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian apologized to Arab Gulf states and said Tehran would stop striking neighboring countries unless attacks on Iran originated from their territory; however, those attacks have not actually appeared to stop – as the consensus is that the elite IRGC is in charge, and there’s likely even autonomy of command decisions with units under emergency war orders.

Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Ministry said Monday of Pezeshkian’s ‘apology’ that Iran “has not reflected that statement in practice.” It laid out that Iran has “continued its attacks based on baseless claims that are not grounded in fact, including allegations that the Kingdom had previously clarified were false, namely the claim that fighter jets and refueling aircraft had departed from the Kingdom to participate in the war.”

⚡️Bahrain:The moment the fire broke out in the fuel tanks of BAPCO Energy Company after it was targeted by a swarm of Iranian drones. pic.twitter.com/wHh8aCxkxt

— War Monitor (@WarMonitors) March 9, 2026

Saudi officials have said its aircraft patrols were purely defensive. “The continued Iranian attacks represent further escalation, with significant implications for bilateral relations both now and in the future,” the ministry said.

Elsewhere in the Gulf, thick smoke has been seen rising from the direction of the Bapco oil refinery in Bahrain, according to a witness cited in Al Jazeera and other reports. Bahrain reported that an Iranian drone strike on the island of Sitra, whihc injured 32 people overnight. Gulf states continue generally reporting new strikes as Iran carries out retaliatory attacks across the region – after Tehran’s own oil and fuel storage sites have been blown up in major weekend attacks.

Israel’s ‘second front’ in Lebanon also continues to escalate, as multiple Israeli airstrikes struck the southern suburbs of Beirut on Monday, including at least one targeting Al-Qard Al-Hassan, which is a financial institution linked to Hezbollah, according to Lebanon’s National News Agency.

Hezbollah said Monday that it is busy fighting Israeli forces that landed in eastern Lebanon by helicopter across the Syrian border, the second such operation since the start of the latest conflict with Israel. There’s already a ground war ongoing in southern Lebanon. Hezbollah described said it detected “the infiltration of approximately 15 Israeli enemy helicopters” from the Syrian side of the border in eastern Lebanon, an area long under Hezbollah influence.

Meanwhile, US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner reportedly plan to travel to Israel on Tuesday to meet Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, according to Axios reporter Barak Ravid, who is seen as close to the Israeli government. The trip hasn’t been officially confirmed, however.

Footage from northeast Tehran, oil and energy sites continue to burn:

⚡️ Northeast Tehran pic.twitter.com/WT2GN9VHao

— War Monitor (@WarMonitors) March 9, 2026

As for ‘what’s next’ – escalation or offramp… the following from Bloomberg suggests there could be a gateway to ground troops if things take an escalatory war path: “Trump is weighing the option of deploying special forces on the ground to seize Iran’s near bomb-grade uranium, according to diplomats. He told the Times of Israel that a decision on when to end the war will also involve Benjamin Netanyahu,” Bloomberg reviews of prior weekend reporting.

This as there are claims that Washington and Tel Aviv don’t see eye to eye on ultimate war aims and strategy: “Israel’s strikes on 30 Iranian fuel depots Saturday went far beyond what the U.S. expected when Israel notified it in advance, sparking the first significant disagreement between the allies since the war began eight days ago, according to a U.S. official, Israeli official and a source with knowledge.” But all of this fresh reporting of ‘distance’ between the close allies who are executing Trump’s Operation Epic Fury could by design be meant to create artificial distance between the president and what might prove to be an unpopular war.