Playing With Fire

Authored by Tuomas Malinen via Substack,

It seems that every time a road to peace in Ukraine looks open, something happens, leading to a deeper escalation.

The Sunday strikes by Ukraine on Russia’s ‘nuclear triad,’ i.e., intercontinental ballistic missiles, submarines, and intercontinental bombers, are a serious escalation. Ukraine claims that it would have destroyed one-third of Russia’s strategic bombers. This assertion is likely to be a gross overstatement, but the actual numbers are irrelevant.

The strike, once again, targeted Russia’s nuclear arsenal, which can serve only two aims:

1. Ukrainian leadership is desperately trying to fully commit NATO to the war in Ukraine, or

2. Strikes are preparation for NATO’s nuclear strikes on Russia.

We listed these in our May 30, 2024, warning on the possibility of a nuclear strike in Europe, after Ukraine had struck Russia’s early-warning (over-the-horizon) radars. The strikes on the over-the-horizon radars were already a dangerous provocation, which had zero relevance to the war in Ukraine (radars look for launches of intercontinental and medium-range ballistic missiles at high altitudes). Sunday, however, was a provocation at an entirely different level.

• Firstly, this was (again) a strike to Russia’s nuclear forces, which enables (essentially demands) a response with nuclear weapons according to Russia’s nuclear doctrine. This is why we issued an updated warning of a nuclear strike in Europe yesterday.

• Secondly, START mandates the outside storage of strategic (intercontinental) bombers. The Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty requires bombers to be stored outside so that they can be tracked with satellites. Essentially, this now means that also the U.S. strategic fleet can be attacked by anyone with access to drones and explosives. The path to nuclear sabotage at a whole other level has been opened (to note, if the U.S. strategic fleet had been hit, missiles would probably already be flying). What happens to START is very unclear now. Russia suspended its participation in February 2023 but did not withdraw from it fully.

• Thirdly, according to Axios, the administration of President Trump would not have been informed about the strikes. This implies that the regime of President Zelenskyy is now fully at the service of the ‘war-triad’ consisting of the U.S./NATO Deep State, the military-industrial complex, and the ‘group-over-groups.’ This indicates that President Trump is losing his ability to steer the conflict. The repercussions of this are hard to quantify as of yet, but nothing good can come of a rogue state attacking a nuclear power.

Most importantly, we need to understand that this was not about Ukraine vs. Russia nor NATO vs. Russia. An effort to unleash a nuclear war is a threat against all humankind. I cannot emphasize enough how dangerous and reckless such a “game” is.

It’s my current thinking that Russia’s response will take some time coming, but it’s likely to be devastating when it comes (Russia may also declare war on Ukraine, albeit I still doubt it). The Kremlin probably wanted to play the charade of peace negotiations in Istanbul first. The peace negotiations are a charade because neither side is currently seeking genuine peace. Russia does not trust the Zelenskyy administration nor European leaders, and President Zelenskyy cannot seek peace because it would probably have him killed. Remember also that if Russia strikes Ukraine with nuclear weapons, it is unlikely to be met by NATO except maybe through sanctions.

On January 11, based on our Peak Escalation hypothesis, we warned that

1. There will be attempts to postpone or completely derail the peace process in Ukraine during H1 2025.

2. If this (peace in Ukraine) comes to be, as we suspect it eventually will, another front with Russia will be opened somewhere in the axis of Poland/Belarus, Baltics or the Nordics, shortly after.

We, most unfortunately, have been following this to the letter. Ukrainian strikes on the eve of the second round of negotiations in Istanbul made sure that we are set to follow this through. Alas, war drums beat loudly over Europe, yet again.

Remember also that all major European conflicts have started between 22 June and 1 September. Let’s see how “hot” this summer becomes.