Rate-Cuts? ISM Services Soars To 27-Month-Highs

With ‘hard data’ exploding higher, ‘soft’ survey data is not playing along so far (on the Manufacturing side). On the Services side of the economy, S&P Global’s PMI slipped lower (to 55.0 from 55.2 vs expectations of a small rise to 55.3) in October equaling its lowest since July (having gone nowhere in six months).

ISM’s Services PMI was expected to decline from 54.9 to 53.8, but instead it jumped significantly higher to 56.0 – the highest since July 2022…

Source: Bloomberg

S&P Global sees new orders rising (though some international demand weakness is evident) and output prices rising at their slowest pace in four and a half years (despite a further sharp increase in input prices)..

ISM’s survey saw employment surge back into expansion (so no hurricane impact there?) while new orders and prices paid dipped…

Source: Bloomberg

Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence :

“The US service sector notched up another strong performance in October, helping offset the current weakness of the manufacturing sector to drive a solid pace of overall economic growth again at the start of the fourth quarter.

“The services economy’s consistently impressive growth in recent months has helped the US outperform all other major developed economies. October’s strong performance is consistent with GDP continuing to rise at an annualized rate in excess of 2%.”

On the inflation side, some good news:

“Particularly welcome news comes from the cooling inflation picture. Average prices charged for services rose at a sharply reduced rate in October, showing one of the smallest increases seen for over four years, as competition intensified in the services economy.

Hope remains…

“Firms’ expectations for the coming year have meanwhile perked up from a slump in September, though much uncertainty persists in relation to the business climate after the election, causing many firms to pause hiring until the political landscape becomes more settled.”

How much will all this ‘survey’ data change after this week?