Small Business Optimism Slides In Jan As ‘Uncertainty’ Surges

Having surged (by the most on record) to its highest level since 2018 after Trump’s election victory, Small Business Optimism faded in January as ‘uncertainty’ soared higher (by the most on record, data back to 1986)…

Source: Bloomberg

The National Federation of Independent Business optimism index fell 2.3 points to 102.8 last month. 

Seven of the 10 index components decreased, led by the steepest monthly decline in capital spending plans since 1995.

Source: Bloomberg

The ‘DeepSeek’ effect? Not for Small businesses… With uncertainty at its third-highest level on record, the survey suggests companies are growing cautious about investment as the Fed puts rate-cuts on hold Trump begins moving forward with tariffs.

Sales expectations eased only slightly from the highest level since the start of 2020, while a smaller share of firms said now is a good time to expand operations.

Additionally, the share of firms planning to raise prices has been stuck in the same 10-point range for more than a year, underscoring concerns that progress toward taming inflation is stalling.

Source: Bloomberg

Despite this, small-business owners remain largely upbeat about the economy’s prospects, with a net 47% expecting the economy to improve in coming months.