S&P Futures Rise Above 6,000 With Trump Inauguration Looming

US equity futures are higher modestly, rebounding from yesterday’s just as modest loss. As of 8:00am, S&P futures rise 0.4%, with the underlying index poised for its biggest weekly gain since November’s election, while Nasdaq 100 futures advanced 0.5% thanks to Mag 7 stocks mostly higher (NVDA +1.3%, TSLA +0.9% and GOOG/L +0.6%) as the latest data and comments from Fed officials suggest the central bank will have room to cut interest rates this year. 10Y Treasury yields edged lower, slipping more than 15 basis points below recent multi-month highs, while the USD is higher. Base metals are mostly higher amid upside surprise on China Q4 and December macro data: Q4 GDP prints 5.4% vs. 5.0% survey vs. 4.6% prior; Retail Sales and IP both surprised to the upside. However, reactions from local Asian markets remain muted. Today, macro focus will be on housing data (Housing Starts and Building Permits).

In premarket trading, all members of the Magnificent Seven are higher: Alphabet (GOOGL) +0.4%, Amazon (AMZN) +0.5%, Apple (AAPL) +0.7%, Microsoft (MSFT) +0.3% , Meta Platforms (META) +0.3%, Nvidia (NVDA) +0.9%, and Tesla (TSLA) +0.7%. JetBlue and Southwest Airlines shares fall about 2% after BofA downgraded the carriers to underperform from neutral, citing their lower exposure to corporate, premium and international routes. Here are some other notable premarket movers:

• Bank OZK (OZK) ticks 1% higher after the bank posted 4Q net interest income that topped estimates.
• Fastenal (FAST) falls 6% after the construction supplies company reported 4Q sales that slightly missed as a “slow rate of growth reflects continuation of the soft manufacturing environment that has been sustained throughout 2024.”
• JB Hunt (JBHT) shares drop 9% after the transportation and logistics company reported fourth-quarter earnings per share that trailed consensus expectations.
• Lumentum (LITE) gains 6% after Barclays turned bullish on the photonics products maker, saying it’s an “underappreciated share gain story.”
• Truist Financial (TFC) gains 2% after Charlotte-based lender reported net interest income that was broadly in line with analyst estimates.

A big reason for this week’s stock market outperformance is that swap markets now expect some 40 basis points worth of rate cuts from the Fed this year, following a weaker than expected core CPI print, moving from not even pricing a single quarter-point move earlier this week.

“Even equity managers were more concerned over rates than earnings,” said Kevin Thozet, a member of the investment committee at Carmignac. “What we have had is reassuring data on this front — whether retail sales or inflation — hinting that the US economy may not be overheating. This has allowed for fixed income markets to take a bit of a breather.”

With Q4 earnings just starting, investor focus is also turning to President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration on Monday and his plans for tariff hikes, tax cuts and mass deportation of undocumented migrants. “Key things to be aware of are whether Trump goes big from the very first day, coming up with executive orders and being very vocal,” Carmignac’s Thozet said. “He has been saying a multitude of things and we will see if he is more talking than acting.”

Europe’s Stoxx 600 index also gained, rising 0.6%, and on course for its strongest week since September. Basic resources shares led the way after Bloomberg reported that Glencore and Rio Tinto held early-stage talks about combining their businesses. The news, alongside a weaker pound, helped London’s FTSE 100 hit a record high. China-focused European sectors such as retail and auto also climbed after data suggested Beijing’s stimulus blitz is succeeding in shoring up economic growth. Here are some of the biggest movers on Friday:

• European miner stocks rise after Bloomberg reported that Rio Tinto and Glencore have recently held early-stage talks about a combination; Rio Tinto +1.3%, Glencore +2.3%
• SUSS MicroTec shares rise as much as 36%, the most on record, after the German semiconductor equipment manufacturer reported preliminary results that Stifel said topped expectations due to sales and Ebit beats
• Avolta shares rise as much as 9.6%, the steepest gain since July 2022, after the world’s largest duty-free operator announced a share buyback of as much as CHF200 million
• Smiths Group shares rise as much as 4.7%, briefly hitting a record high, after one of its shareholders called on the company to explore a breakup, arguing in a letter that a sale of the entire business or its units could improve its valuation
• Evoke shares jump as much as 12%, hitting their highest level since July, after the gambling company said its annual adjusted Ebitda will be the high end of its guidance range for 2024, prompting analysts to lift their earnings estimates
• Sanofi shares rise as much as 1.8% to the highest level since Oct. 29 after Berenberg analysts said the drugmaker’s valuation is “highly attractive.”
• Schroders shares rise as much as 1.8% after it said it plans to cut as much as 3% of its workforce
• Maire shares rise as much as 8.8% after Kepler Cheuvreux analyst Kevin Roger raised the recommendation on the Italian company to buy from hold, mentioning potential growth prospects
• Medcap shares fall as much as 30% after the Swedish life science investment firm’s preliminary 4Q figures showed “significantly lower earnings in business area Specialty Pharma” due to increased competition in the British market for melatonin
• Tenaris shares fall 0.5% before erasing the decline after Kepler Cheuvreux cuts to hold from buy, saying it sees limited upside for the Luxembourg-based oil-pipe maker

Earlier, Asian stocks snapped a three-day winning streak, led by losses in Japan after the yen strengthened on an outlook for higher interest rates while largely shrugging off news that China’s economy had expanded at its fastest pace in six quarters to hit the government’s growth goal last year. Analysts say the growth report for 2024 is overshadowed by looming US tariffs on Chinese exports. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index declined as much as 0.7% before erasing most of the loss. Korean companies Hyundai and Samsung were among the worst performers on the regional gauge. Shares in Hong Kong and mainland China advanced after data showed the world’s second-largest economy hit the government growth target last year. Market weakness is expected to continue into next week’s meeting as the BOJ maintains cautiousness, said Kieran Calder, head of Asia equity research at Union Bancaire Privee in Singapore. “If we get only talk and no rate hike from the BOJ, then expect a sharp reversal” toward a weaker yen. Despite Friday’s drop, the key Asian stock gauge is still on track to eke out its first weekly gain of the year.

In currency markets, Bloomberg’s dollar index rose 0.1%, as data continue to highlight the strength of the US economy relative to developed-market peers. The pound slipped as much as 0.6% to near the weakest level since November 2023, after a surprise drop in retail sales added to evidence of a struggling British economy. The yen briefly strengthened through 155 against the dollar early Friday as expectations ramp up for an interest rate hike by the BOJ; it has since retreated and was the weakest of the G-10 currencies, falling 0.4% against the dollar even as traders boost bets on the BOJ raising rates next week. Despite the drop, the Japanese currency is still up more than 1% versus the dollar for the week. Tightening in Japan comes amid uncertain prospects for cuts by the Federal Reserve amid recent US economic data.

In rates, treasury futures hold small gains as US session gets under way, with yields at or near weekly lows. Long-end tenors lead, richer by more than 3bp, flattening the curve. UK gilts pace gains for government bonds globally for a second straight day, with yields lower by 5bp-7bp, after weaker-than-expected UK retail sales figures boosted wagers on BOE easing. Fed’s self-imposed quiet period ahead of Jan. 29 rate decision begins Saturday. With US front-end yields little changed, 2s10s spread is nearly 3bp flatter on the day; US 10-year around 3bp richer at 4.59%, trails UK counterpart by 3bp in the sector while keeping pace with Germany’s. Bunds stayed higher as euro area CPI was confirmed at 2.4% year-on-year in December. IG credit new-issue slate is dormant after GSIBs dominated an eight-deal, $27.6b calendar Thursday, taking weekly supply to nearly $47b, beyond the $40b projected

In commodities, WTI rises 0.6% to $79.20 a barrel. Spot gold drops $10 to $2,705/oz. Bitcoin rises 2% above $102,000.

The US economic data calendar includes December housing starts/building permits (8:30am), December industrial production (9:15am) and November TIC flows 4pm. Fed speaker slate is blank

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 futures up 0.4% to 5,997.00
• STOXX Europe 600 up 0.7% to 523.45
• MXAP down 0.1% to 178.81
• MXAPJ little changed at 564.48
• Nikkei down 0.3% to 38,451.46
• Topix down 0.3% to 2,679.42
• Hang Seng Index up 0.3% to 19,584.06
• Shanghai Composite up 0.2% to 3,241.82
• Sensex down 0.5% to 76,635.61
• Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.2% to 8,310.38
• Kospi down 0.2% to 2,523.55
• German 10Y yield down 2 bps at 2.53%
• Euro little changed at $1.0298
• Brent Futures little changed at $81.33/bbl
• Gold spot down 0.2% to $2,708.07
• US Dollar Index up 0.11% to 109.08

Top Overnight News

• Fed’s Hammack (2026 voter; dissenter) says Fed can be patient on rate cuts; inflation remains an issue; adds that monpol is only moderately restrictive: WSJ
• BofA weekly total card spending: -0.8% Y/Y, “LA wildfire impact seems to be more localised since total card spending in California has only slowed modestly so far”.
• US President Trump reportedly planning an aggressive immigration in the first hours of his administration: “The package of actions amounts to a dramatic shift in immigration policy that will affect immigrants already residing in the United States and migrants seeking asylum at the US-Mexico border.” – CNN
• China’s economic data comes in ahead of expectations, including Q4 GDP (+5.4% vs. the Street +5%), industrial production (+6.2% vs. the Street +5.4%), and retail sales (+3.7% vs. the Street +3.6%). RTRS
• A rally in Chinese government debt has sent yields to record lows and they may have further downside as the US trade tensions compound existing economic woes. That risks weighing even more on the yuan. BBG
• Swap market traders raised their bets to near certainty of a BOJ interest-rate hike next week, climbing from 71% on Wednesday. Almost three quarters of economists surveyed by Bloomberg also predict a hike. BBG
• Israel said it finalized an agreement with Hamas to pause the war in Gaza, suggesting a ceasefire is on track to begin on Sunday. The cabinet started a meeting to ratify the deal. BBG
• The Yemen-based Houthis signaled a pause in their attacks on commercial ships in the Red Sea following the Israel-Hamas ceasefire deal. BBG
• UK retail sales were quite soft in Dec, falling 0.6% M/M (vs. the Street consensus of +0.3%) while Nov was revised lower (from +0.3% to +0.1%). RTRS
• Trump has already prepared about 100 executive orders in a bid to take action quickly after his inauguration. The president-elect told Senate Republicans that he won’t wait on them to start implementing immigration and trade reforms. BBG
• President-elect Donald Trump is planning to release an executive order elevating crypto as a policy priority and giving industry insiders a voice within his administration. BBG
• Canada’s Central Bank will soon announce the end of its quantitative tightening program, deputy governor Toni Gravelle said on Thursday, making it one of the first central banks globally to stop unwinding pandemic-era asset purchases. RTRS

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mixed in mostly rangebound trade after the uninspiring handover from Wall St and despite encouraging Chinese GDP and activity data. ASX 200 traded indecisively as weakness in the top-weighted financials sector and telecoms clouded over the marginal gains in most sectors, while the index also failed to benefit from the mostly better-than-expected data in Australia’s largest trading partner. Nikkei 225 continued to underperform amid recent currency strength and the potential for a BoJ rate hike next week. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were choppy with only mild support seen after GDP, Industrial Production & Retail Sales beat expectations with China’s economy growing 5.4% Y/Y (exp. 5.0%) in Q4 and by 5.0% (exp. 4.9%) for 2024. Nonetheless, the data only briefly supported Chinese stocks which were ultimately rangebound after the mixed commentary from the stats bureau which noted the impact of external environment changes is deepening, domestic demand is not sufficient, and economic operations still face many difficulties and challenges but also stated that positive factors will outweigh negative factors for China’s economy in 2025. In addition, US-China trade frictions continued to linger after the USTR found China shipbuilding to be actionable under Section 301.

Top Asian News

• Majority of BoJ board members poised to approve a rate hike next week, according to Nikkei sources; some of the board hold cautious view; the final decision will come after Trump’s inauguration.
• China’s stats bureau said China’s economic operations were generally steady in 2024, but the impact from external environment changes is deepening and domestic demand is not sufficient, while it added that economic operations still face many difficulties and challenges. China stats bureau head said China’s economic achievements in 2024 were hard won but China policy stimulus was timely and boosted confidence and growth, as well as noted they will continue to promote economic recovery and implement more pro-active economic policies. The stats bureau head said positive factors will outweigh negative factors for China’s economy in 2025 and he is fully confident about China’s economic development in 2025, while he added that facing external changes, China will prioritise boosting domestic demand especially consumption.
• US Trade Representative said China’s dominance of maritime, logistics and shipbuilding sectors is actionable under Section 301 statute but did not make specific recommendations. USTR said China’s targeting of maritime sectors is enabled by forced labour, lack of labour rights, and excess capacity in steel and other areas, while it displaces foreign firms, lessens competition and creates dependence on China.
• China’s Commerce Ministry said China is strongly dissatisfied and firmly opposed to the US report about China’s shipbuilding and logistics sectors, while it will closely monitor US actions and take necessary measures to safeguard its legitimate rights and interests. MOFCOM also said the relevant investigation is marked by ‘unilateralism and protectionism’, while it added the ‘decline’ of the US shipbuilding industry has nothing to do with China and it urged the US to stop shifting problems in its domestic industrial development onto China.
• China’s Commerce Ministry requested the WTO to set up an expert group on Turkey’s restrictions on electric vehicles imported from China and said the next step will be to start a litigation process in accordance with WTO rules.
• BoJ is reportedly likely to hike in January barring any major Trump-driven market shocks, via Reuters citing sources; will make no major change to guidance that they will keep increasing rates. BoJ is unlikely to offer explicit guidance on the pace of future tightening or how far rates could eventually go, while source added “the market seems to have gotten the BoJ’s message”.

European bourses (Stoxx 600 +0.7%) opened modestly firmer across the board and have continued to climb since the cash open; as it stands, indices reside near best levels. European sectors hold a strong positive bias, with Autos & Parts leading the gains whilst Tech is the marginal laggard, as it trades on either side of the unchanged mark, paring the TSMC-induced upside seen in the prior day. US equity futures are modestly in positive territory, attempting to make up for the lacklustre performance in the prior session and garnering optimism via a strong European session thus far.

Top European News

• ECB’s Stournaras says easing should continue with a series of cuts, via Bloomberg.
• ECB’s Nagel says there is no doubt that the German economy is experiencing a pronounced growth weakness

FX

• DXY is marginally higher with the dollar gaining some strength at the hands of a softer GBP and JPY. DXY remains within yesterday’s 108.82-109.38 trading band. Docket ahead is light.
• EUR is flat vs. the USD in quiet EZ-specific newsflow other than comments from dovish GC member Stournaras noting that easing should continue with a series of cuts and news that French PM Bayrou survived a no-confidence motion against the government. EUR/USD is currently contained within yesterday’s 1.0259-1.0314. EZ HICP Finals saw modest downward revisions to some components, but had little impact on price action.
• JPY is softer vs. the USD after two hefty sessions of gains. Source reporting surrounding the BoJ continues to indicate that a 25bps hike is likely on the horizon. The Nikkei reports that a majority of BoJ board members are poised to approve a rate hike next week with the final decision set to come after Trump’s inauguration. USD/JPY just about briefly dipped below 155 with a 154.99 low.
• GBP is on the backfoot in what has been an indecisive week for Cable with the pair broadly pivoting around the 1.22 mark. Today’s selling pressure has been triggered by a soft outturn for UK retail sales which unexpectedly contracted on a M/M basis. Cable briefly broke below yesterday’s low at 1.2174 before trimming downside.
• Antipodeans are both slightly softer vs. the USD and unable to benefit from a better-than-expected outturn for Chinese GDP, retail sales and industrial production.

Fixed Income

• USTs are modestly firmer, but yet to deviate significantly from the unchanged mark. Derived a modest bid from action across the pond as Gilts lifted on the back of soft Retail Sales metrics for December. At a 108-22+ peak but with ranges narrow and the low at just 108-16+.
• JGBs are once again the modest underperformer on the account of more sources pointing to a BoJ hike in January.
• Bunds lifted off their 131.50 base (following UK Retail Sales) to a 131.88 session high over the course of the morning. EZ HICP (Finals) saw modest downward revisions; ahead, a few ECB speakers are due.
• Gilts gapped higher at the open by 27 ticks and then extended further to a 91.89 peak. A move which was driven by soft Retail Sales for December, metrics which complete the week’s set of dovish UK data and cement the view that February is a live meeting with a strengthening market bias towards a cut occurring. The 91.89 peak marks a WTD high and has Gilts on track to close the week out with gains of c. 250 ticks from the 89.00 open and 88.96 WTD low just below that.

Commodities

• A firm Friday session in the crude complex as risk appetite grinds higher in early European hours, with the crude benchmarks also supported by constructive Chinese GDP and activity data. WTI Feb resides in a current 78.65-79.44/bbl range and Brent Mar trades within 81.37-81.93/bbl.
• Subdued price action in the metal complex as the Dollar continues to grind higher, and with the Middle Eastern geopolitical landscape more constructive after yesterday’s blip surrounding last-minute tweaks to the Israel-Hamas deal. Spot gold resides in a USD 2,705.81-2,717.43/oz range.
• Mixed trade in the base metal complex despite the constructive Chinese data overnight and the risk appetite in the European morning. 3M LME copper ekes mild gains and resides in a current narrow USD 9,239.00-9,295.50.t range.
• Colonial Pipeline now estimates an earlier-than-expected restart of Line 1 on Friday after it made progress with on-site work to identify the source of a leak on Line 1 and began repairs.

Geopolitics: Middle East

• Hamas says issues regarding ceasefire deal resolved on Friday, according to a statement.
• “Israel’s security cabinet ratifies Gaza agreement”, according to Al Jazeera.
• Israel security cabinet begins meeting to vote on Gaza ceasefire, hostage release deal, according AFP.
• Israel agreed to the Gaza hostage deal and the cabinet is to meet on Friday, according to Israeli media.
• Reports suggest that the demand by Israel’s Finance Minister Smotrich were met, following him stating to PM Netanyahu that he would resign if not.

Geopolitics: Other

• French Defence Minister says French maritime patrol aircraft was the target of Russian intimidation measured in Baltics; France calls the measures unacceptable.
• Chinese hackers reportedly accessed Treasury Secretary Yellen’s computer in the US Treasury breach, according to Bloomberg.
• North Korean Foreign Ministry said it will exercise its thorough right to self-defence, according to KCNA.

US Event Calendar

• 08:30: Dec. Building Permits, est. 1.46m, prior 1.49m
  • Dec. Building Permits MoM, est. -2.2%, prior 5.2%
  • Dec. Housing Starts, est. 1.33m, prior 1.29m
  • Dec. Housing Starts MoM, est. 3.0%, prior -1.8%
• 09:15: Dec. Industrial Production MoM, est. 0.3%, prior -0.1%
  • Dec. Manufacturing (SIC) Production, est. 0.2%, prior 0.2%
• 09:15: Dec. Capacity Utilization, est. 77.0%, prior 76.8%
• 16:00: Nov. Total Net TIC Flows, prior $203.6b

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Markets put in a decent performance over the last 24 hours, with bonds and most equities posting a fresh advance, despite a slump for the Magnificent 7 (-1.92%) pushing down the S&P 500 (-0.21%). The big focus for investors was on Scott Bessent’s nomination hearing to become US Treasury Secretary, but the largest moves of the day were actually driven by comments from Fed Governor Waller. He sounded open to a rate cut as soon as March, and also said that 3 or 4 cuts were possible this year if the data cooperated. So those comments pushed back against the more hawkish narrative that developed because of strong data like the jobs report last week. And if we did end up with 3 or 4 cuts, that would be a faster pace than the Fed’s dot plot showed only last month, when the median dot pencilled in just 2 cuts this year.

After Waller’s comments, investors swiftly dialled up their expectations for Fed rate cuts this year. For instance, the likelihood of a cut by the May meeting moved up to 56%, and the total number of cuts by the December meeting moved up +3.3bps to 42.5bps. Those moves kept up the momentum from the CPI report on Wednesday, which helped to revive investors’ hopes that the Fed were still on a path to cut rates. So that meant it was a strong day for US Treasuries, with the 10yr yield (-4.0bps) down to 4.61%, whilst the 2yr yield (-3.5bps) fell to 4.23%.

In the meantime, when it came to Scott Bessent’s hearing to become US Treasury Secretary, the most notable comment was regarding new Russian sanctions, with Bessent saying he would support sanctions on Russian oil majors. But otherwise, his remarks were broadly in line with our understanding of existing policy. For example, Bessent called for an extension of tax cuts, saying that they would face “an economic calamity” if they didn’t renew them. Separately, he said that “we must ensure that the US dollar remains the world’s reserve currency”. And on fiscal policy, he said that the US “must work to get our fiscal house in order”. By the close, the dollar index had weakened -0.12%, but the main move lower came earlier in response to Waller’s comments, rather than anything Bessent said.

Ahead of all that, we had a reasonably positive set of US data yesterday. The strongest was the Philadelphia Fed’s manufacturing business outlook survey, which surged to 44.3 in January (vs. -5.0 expected). That’s the highest reading for the index since April 2021, as well as the biggest monthly jump in the index since June 2020. Otherwise, some of the hard data was more mixed, with retail sales ex autos up by +0.4% in December (vs. +0.5% expected), but the retail control group up by a stronger +0.7% (vs +0.4% expected). Meanwhile, initial jobless claims moved up to 217k in the week ending January 11 (vs. 210k expected). So with that pretty good set of data, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate for Q4 ticked up to an annualised pace of +3.0%.

Despite the solid backdrop, the S&P 500 (-0.21%) declined for the first time this week, but this was primarily due to drag from the big tech firms as all of the Magnificent 7 (-1.92%) lost ground. By contrast, around three-quarters of the S&P 500’s constituents advanced on the day, led by rate-sensitive sectors. In fact, the equal-weighted S&P 500 was up +0.81% yesterday, bringing its gains for the week up to +3.42% so far. So even if the equal-weighted index is unchanged today, that would make it the second-best weekly performance in the last year, only behind the week of the US election in November.
Over in Europe, equities put in a much stronger performance, with the STOXX 600 (+0.98%) up to a one-month high, with France’s CAC 40 (+2.14%) posting the largest advance of the major indices amid strong gains for luxury stocks. That advance came just before French Prime Minister Bayrou survived a confidence vote in the National Assembly, thanks to abstentions from Marine Le Pen’s National Rally, as well as the Socialists. And in Germany, the DAX (+0.39%) hit an all-time high with just over 5 weeks until the federal election.

Meanwhile in the UK, gilts outperformed for a second day running after the latest growth data was weaker than expected. It showed the UK economy only grew by +0.1% in November, (vs. +0.2% expected), and if you look at the full three months to November, the economy was stagnant compared to the previous three months. So after the downside inflation surprise on Wednesday, that led investors to expect more rate cuts from the Bank of England this year, with 65bps now priced in by the December meeting. In turn, that led gilt yields to fall across the curve, with the 2yr yield down -8.1bps, and the 10yr yield own -5.1bps.

Elsewhere in Europe, yields on 10yr bunds (-1.5bps) and OATs (-1.8bps) posted a modest decline following the US rates move lower. We did get the account from the ECB’s December meeting as well, which confirmed the prevailing view that further cuts were still likely. And notably, there was some discussion of a larger 50bp cut, with the account saying that some members “would have favoured more consideration being given to the possibility of such a larger cut.” But ultimately, they only cut by 25bps, and the account said “it was remarked that a 50 basis point cut could be perceived as the ECB having a more negative view of the state of the economy than was actually the case.”

Overnight in Asia, the main story has been China’s GDP data, which showed the economy grew by +5.0% in 2024 as a whole. Moreover, the Q4 number was stronger than expected, with GDP up +5.4% on a year-on-year basis (vs. +5.0% expected). And some of the monthly data for December also surprised on the upside, with industrial production up +6.2% y/y (vs. +5.4% expected), whilst retail sales were up +3.7% y/y (vs. +3.6% expected).

Against that backdrop, Chinese equities have advanced this morning, with solid gains for the CSI 300 (+0.77%) and the Shanghai Comp (+0.55%). But elsewhere in Asia there’ve been losses this morning, with Japan’s Nikkei (-0.38%) and South Korea’s KOSPI (-0.28%) both losing ground. Looking forward however, US and European equity futures are all positive, with those on the S&P 500 (+0.22%) and the DAX (+0.15%) pointing higher.

To the day ahead now, and data releases from the US include industrial production, capacity utilisation, housing starts and building permits for December, and in the UK there’s also retail sales for December. From central banks, we’ll hear from the ECB’s Nagel, Escriva and Centeno.