Today’s mixed macro picture (construction spending down, National Manufacturing surveys and Dallas Fed in contraction offset by surge in JOLTS) was overwhelmed by Strikes (from Iranian missiles and American longshoremen).
The widespread union strike deadline passed and bond markets shifted lower in yield on that news overnight. Then as Iranian missiles rained down on Israel, investors poured into safe-havens (bonds, gold) and dumped stocks as oil prices re-discovered geopolitical risk premium.
Source: Bloomberg
Treasury yields were all bid today, but are mixed on the week with the short-end significantly underperforming…
Source: Bloomberg
Gold was also bid as safe-haven (erasing all of yesterday’s losses)…
Source: Bloomberg
The dollar strengthened significantly on the day (more safe haven flows perhaps)…
Source: Bloomberg
Oil prices surged higher on the missile launches with WTI reaching almost $72 before pulling back a little.
Source: Bloomberg
Stocks lurched lower on the Iran-Israel headlines – led by Small Caps and Mega-Cap Tech – but once Europe closed, the algos started trying to BTFD. The momentum did ignite but failed to get any of the majors green before some late-day profit-taking from 0-DTEs dragged everything down again…
VIX and VVIX both surged higher today…
Source: Bloomberg
Bitcoin continued to serve its role as an anti-geopolitical risk asset – dumping every time a MidEast headline hits the Bloomberg terminal (which makes little to no sense to us… but hey we don’t have PhDs)…
Source: Bloomberg
It seems BTC and Big-Tech are joined at the hip again for now…
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, as Bloomberg reports, while investors are focused on policy cues (and liquidity infusions), earnings momentum has turned negative and could be a drag on stocks if it doesn’t improve with the upcoming earnings season.
Source: Bloomberg
Buy hey, for now liquidity is all that matters…
Source: Bloomberg
…until it doesn’t!
And there’s some liquidity stress in the banks’ plumbing…
Source: Bloomberg
Let’s just hope it’s quarter-end window-dressing (but this is one to keep an eye on).
Is that why USA Sovereign risk is also spiking…
Source: Bloomberg
Probably nothing..
Tyler Durden
Tue, 10/01/2024 – 16:00
