Student Loan Delinquencies Surge, Hammer Credit Scores – Southern States Hit Hardest

The party is over for millions of Americans who paused payments on their federal student loans over the last several years through pandemic-era forbearance programs. Many had hoped for sweeping loan forgiveness under the Biden-Harris administration, But with the federal government officially resuming collections on defaulted loans this month—for the first time in over five years—borrowers now face sliding credit scores as delinquencies soar, while in April we warned the restart could drain as much as $63 billion from the economy. 

On Tuesday, the Center for Microeconomic Data at the New York Fed released its Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit, updated through the first quarter of 2025.

Within the report is a snapshot of consumer credit profiles, including the sharp rise in delinquent student loan debt that’s now piling up.

Starting with a 10,000-foot view; in the first quarter of 2025 the aggregate U.S. delinquency rate climbed to 4.3% of outstanding debt in some stage of delinquency – up from 3.6% in the fourth quarter of 2024. Total aggregate household debt increased by $167 billion in the quarter, up .9% from 4Q24, while overall, America’s consumer debt balance now stands at a whopping $18.20 trillion – an increase of more than $4 trillion since 4Q19. 

Narrowing it down, while early-stage delinquency rates remained stable across most debt categories, student loans bucked the trend, posting a sharp increase as the federal government resumed credit reporting on missed payments for the first time in nearly five years.

“Transition into early delinquency held steady for nearly all debt types; the exception was for student loans, which saw a large uptick in the rate at which balances went from current to delinquent due to the resumption of reporting of delinquent student loans on credit reports after a nearly 5-year pause due to the pandemic,” the quarterly report said. 

The shift comes amid the expiration of pandemic-era forbearance, exposing millions of borrowers to renewed repayment obligations. 

Last month, Education Secretary Linda McMahon told President Trump at a Cabinet meeting: 

“We’re going to start getting it back,” adding “For those people who have borrowed money and have not been paying — that’s just not to be punitive, there are many ways that they can go online to understand how they can get back into the right payment structure. Because when they’re in default, they can’t buy a house, they can’t buy a car, their credit scores go down.”

Also reported last month (full note available to premium subs), student-loan delinquencies have increased since the pandemic-era forbearance on repayment ended in September 2023. The Biden administration allowed a year for payments to fully ramp back up, which temporarily suppressed delinquency rates. Now, though, missed payments are crossing the 90-day threshold and showing up on borrowers’ credit reports.

Transition rates into serious delinquency (90+ days past due) held steady for auto loans and credit cards, but rose for mortgages, HELOCs, and, notably, student loans, reflecting growing financial strain among consumers.

Bloomberg noted: 

Transitioning into serious delinquency (90-plus days late) for student loans rose to tie a 10-year-old record for those age 50 and older. Among that cohort, 11.23%, or around one in nine households, is now seriously delinquent on their student loan debt. Americans age 50 and older held $418.5 billion in student loan debt, split among 9.2 million borrowers. The ratios of serious delinquency for younger age groups was lower but still rose sharply. The average age of a delinquent borrower ticked up to 40.4.

The Fed’s data shows that the credit hit is substantial for newly delinquent student loan borrowers. Among the 7.5% who had a relatively high credit score of at least 720 before the delinquency, their scores dropped by 177 points on average. Overall, the Fed found that 2.2 million borrowers saw their credit scores drop by at least 100 points.

Data from Bloomberg shows the student debt bubble stood at a record high of $1.63 trillion. 

New York Fed economists via Liberty Street Economics published a note with more color about the student loan turmoil unfolding, indicating “more than twenty million federal borrowers were not in repayment and five million federal borrowers had a zero dollar monthly payment,” adding, “Among borrowers who were required to make payments, nearly one in four student loan borrowers (23.7 percent) were behind on their student loans in the first quarter of 2025.” 

The economists noted that seven states have a conditional borrower delinquency rate over 30%: Mississippi (44.6%), Alabama (34.1%), West Virginia (34.0%), Kentucky (33.6%), Oklahoma (33.6%), Arkansas (33.5%), and Louisiana (31.8%). These states are located in the heartland and are primarily Trump states. 

The economists offered their take on the grave situation:

After a five-year hiatus, student loan delinquency has returned to the pre-pandemic “normal” with more than 10 percent of balances and roughly six million borrowers either past due or in default. The ramifications of student loan delinquency are severe.

The U.S. Department of Education, in concert with the U.S. Treasury, began collection efforts for defaulted loans in May, which includes the garnishment of wages, tax returns, and Social Security payments.

Additionally, millions of borrowers face steep declines in their credit standing which will increase borrowing costs or seriously limit their access to credit like mortgages and auto loans. It is unclear whether these penalties will spill over into payment difficulties in other credit products, but we will continue to monitor this space in the coming months.

Millennials and GenX feeling the brunt of student debt woes. 

Credit score downgrades begin… 

More:

What’s critical to understand is that delinquent student loan debt continues to pile up quickly, increasingly hitting borrowers’ credit reports. This growing wave of defaults could trigger a domino effect on consumer spending, potentially dragging down GDP by as much as $63 billion—a risk we warned about in our note titled The Next Economic Shock: Student Loan Default Wave = $63 Billion GDP Hit …

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View the full report here: