The Sahel: Emerging Center Of Global Islamism

Authored by Nils Haug via The Gatestone Institute,

The center of world terrorist activity and violent death is no longer the Middle East. The “Sahel region of Africa is now the ‘epicentre of global terrorism,'” responsible for “over half of all terrorism-related deaths” worldwide, according to the respected Global Terrorism Index.

The sub-Saharan Sahel is largely unknown to much of the world. It can be described as the large, mostly flat, strip, nearly 600 miles wide, located between the savannahs of Sudan to the south and the Sahara desert to the north.

During the last ten years or so, according to the Royal United Services Institute, the world’s oldest defense and security think tank, headquartered in London, the Sahel has undergone a “significant surge in jihadist violence. Armed actors take advantage of porous borders, fragile states, and local grievances to extend their operational reach,”

Global Terrorism Index 2025, published by the Institute for Economics & Peace, reveals that the primary instigator of global terrorism during 2024 was the Islamic State (ISIS) and associated groups — such as al Qaeda, Jamaat Nusrat Al-Islam wal Muslimeen, Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan, and al- Shabaab — together responsible for more than 7,500 deaths.

Although the West is experiencing escalating terrorism in countries such as Sweden, Australia, Finland, the Netherlands, Denmark, Germany and Switzerland, the Sahel region evidently remains the “global epicentre of terrorism, accounting for over half of all terrorism-related deaths in 2024.” 

Here, conflict deaths exceeded 25,000 for the first time, of which nearly 4,000 were directly connected to terrorism.

A perturbing factor is that in Europe, “one in five persons arrested for terrorism is legally classified as a child.” This is understandable, as children in Islamist-jihadist communities are exposed to Jew-hatred and the desire for an Islamist caliphate from a very tender age. The same statistics would apply to terrorist actors in the Sahel, as the ideology of martyrdom and sacrifice is ubiquitous to jihadism.

Susceptible countries in the region include Senegal, Sudan, Niger, Burkina Faso and Mali. Unsurprisingly, the region’s rich mineral resources – with Niger the world’s seventh-biggest producer of uranium — also attract attention. China and Russia are increasingly represented, while Western nations withdraw from Africa due to growing anti-Western attitudes. Specifically, the US base in Niger in August 2024 and France’s base in Chad closed in December 2024.

The consequence is, of course, that with the West’s retreat, ISIS has free rein to action their visions of global influence. 

They are present in 22 countries at present and, as the report points out: “Despite counterterrorism efforts, the group’s ability to coordinate, inspire, and execute attacks highlights its resilience and evolving operational strategies.” In the remoteness of the Sahel, ISIS finds an accommodating environment to consolidate and establish a central base.

Russia’s Wagner mercenary militia, although rebranded as an “Expeditionary Corps,” continues its predatory activities in the area, offering “governments in Africa a ‘regime survival package’ in exchange for access to strategically important natural resources.”

Covertly obtained Russian documents reveal how the group strives to “change mining laws in West Africa, with the ambition of dislodging Western companies from an area of strategic importance.” The upshot is accelerating anti-Western sentiment, resulting in the local states seeking to expel hitherto entrenched foreign interests.

A February 20, 2024, report by Jack Watling, Fellow for Land Warfare at the Royal United Services Institute, explains that there “was a meeting in the Kremlin in which it was decided that Wagner’s Africa operations would fall directly under the control of Russian military intelligence, the GRU.”

Watling concludes, “This is the Russian state coming out of the shadows in its Africa policy.” Russia’s patent objective is therefore to “seize control of critical resources,” and “aggressively pursue the expansion of its partnerships in Africa, with the explicit intent to supplant Western partnerships.”

Unlike the West, Russia is not particularly interested in countering terror groups such as ISIS but, instead, focuses on its core objectives concerning “critical resources” and replacing “Western partnership” in the Sahel. With the retreat of Western anti-terror forces, ISIS and associates have freedom to expand their activities, while Russia focuses on eliminating Western influence. The result is a vacuum of experienced Western counter-terror forces, a situation in which jihadist groups thrive.

Fortunately, North African nations, such as Morocco and Algeria, realize the dangers of unchecked jihadism in the Sahel, which reaches towards their southern borders. To give effect to its objectives, Rabat implemented the Morocco Atlantic Initiative, which,

“aims to provide landlocked Sahel countries with access to vital maritime trade routes via Morocco’s Atlantic port infrastructure. The plan aims to foster economic regional integration to reduce dependence on unstable transit routes, while fostering Morocco’s ties with its southern neighbours to counter instability, terrorism and illicit trafficking in the region in the long term.”

Similarly, Algeria, with its common “borders and historical ties to Mali, has always played a pivotal role in the region.”

In addition, some Sahel states are taking it upon themselves to counter jihadists in their domain. Recently, an alliance of three prominent Sahel states — Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger — “unveiled plans for a unified military force of 5,000 soldiers.”

“Each of the three AES armies are expected to contribute troops, tasked with conducting joint operations in areas of intense jihadist activity. In their view, establishing a self-sufficient military partnership is the most dependable way to safeguard sovereignty.”

This local move came about as a lack of available Western forces to quell jihadism – an absence brought about by the Sahel nations “severing long-standing military and diplomatic ties with regional allies, France, and other Western powers.” In 2024, the three Sahel nations agreed “to tackle security threats jointly.”

Although a joint force of 5,000 soldiers is a fair starting point, it is to be noted that the region under discussion covers over 2 million square miles – a vast area. It is anticipated that Russia, China and Turkey, who already provide “bilateral military assistance and equipment” might partner, to some degree, with the Sahel forces to counter terrorism.

Meanwhile, ISIS and al-Qaeda, with associates, extend “greater influence over trans-Saharan networks which will expand their external reach and increase the threat of external plots in North Africa and potentially Europe.”

In the result, the Sahel predominantly remains the locale of non-Western actors and local states, acting together for mutual benefit, including the possible control of terrorism. Whether or not efforts by these parties, with some North African countries, will have much impact on jihadism activity in the region remains to be seen. Currently, the significant strategic, political, and economic benefits in the region are reaped by Russia, China and Turkey. The West is nowhere to be seen.