Trump Scoffs At ‘Vietnam Quagmire’ – Says Iran War Ends ‘Soon’ And Oil To ‘Drop Like A Rock’

Summary:

• Trump: War will be over “soon” after which “oil prices will drop like a rock”; We are “not ready to leave Iran yet” but will in “near future”. Brushes off potential for ‘Vietnam-style quagmire.’

• Trump on China and delayed Xi meeting – “Looks like it’ll happen in five weeks.”

• Macron: “We are not party to the conflict and therefore France will never take part in operations to open” Strait of Hormuz. Trump says we don’t need NATO.

• Israel issues widest evacuation order for southern Lebanon since the major 2006 war.

• Israel claims major decapitation strike: Says Ali Larijani and Basij chief Gholamreza Soleimani were killed, but Iran disputes. Iran rejects ceasefire, vows escalation.

• Trump confirmed earlier he asked China to delay Xi meeting ‘a month or so’ due to Iran war.

• New oil targeting phase as Tehran pledges to be gatekeeper of Hormuz: Ships pass only “in coordination” with Tehran – talk of separate deal-making with BRICS capitals, while Iraq is in contact with Iran to persuade Tehran to allow some Iraqi oil tankers to pass through Hormuz.

• Allies hesitate as Trump issues contradictory rhetoric: Key NATO states are refusing to join US efforts to secure Hormuz, amid lack of confidence in Trump’s often shifting articulation of operation.

* * *

Trump: “Not Ready to Leave Iran Yet” But Will in “Near Future”

President Trump met with Irish Prime Minister Taoiseach Micheál Martin on Tuesday late morning in honor of St. Patrick’s Day, and the Q&A focused almost exclusively on Iran, with Trump again signaling an eventual US exit from the Iran war – but not just yet, and really with no set timeline (amid at least a “five week” delay until Xi summit). “We’re not ready to leave yet, but we will be leaving in the near future,” he said, adding that US-Israeli strikes have set Iran back so severely it could take “a decade” to rebuild.

Important: Trump on China and Xi meeting – “Looks like it’ll happen in five weeks.”

Crucially (and alarmingly) Trump also brushed off warnings from Tehran that deploying US ground troops could trigger a Vietnam-style quagmire. “No, I’m not afraid of – I’m really not afraid of anything,” he said.

At the same time, Trump is lashing out at NATO allies for sitting on the sidelines. “We help them, and they didn’t help us, and I think that’s a very bad thing for NATO,” Trump said. “Everyone agrees with this, but they don’t want to help,” he said.

Still, he stopped short of threatening immediate consequences, calling it simply “not good for a partnership.” All the while, Trump kept touting that the world faced “nuclear holocaust” from Iran if he didn’t give the order to attack. He even claimed nuclear conflict would have reached Europe if he hadn’t taken action.

BREAKING: TRUMP SAYS HE IS NOT AFRAID TO PUT BOOTS ON THE GROUND IN IRAN:

Q: Are you afraid that if you put boots on the ground in Iran, it could be another Vietnam?

TRUMP: No. I’m really not afraid of anything.pic.twitter.com/1c31R4f3lT

— Sulaiman Ahmed (@ShaykhSulaiman) March 17, 2026

US Doesn’t Need NATO to Help with Iran Mission: Trump

President Trump is not happy with NATO and is letting the world know it. First countries like Spain, Germany, and Greece made it clear they would not heed his call for a coalition to open the Strait of Hormuz, and on Tuesday France’s Macron stated it is “not our war”.

Trump said in a fresh Truth Social Post “I am not surprised by their action, however, because I always considered NATO, where we spend Hundreds of Billions of Dollars per year protecting these same Countries, to be a one way street — We will protect them, but they will do nothing for us, in particular, in a time of need.” And more:

Because of the fact that we have had such Military Success, we no longer “need,” or desire, the NATO Countries’ assistance — WE NEVER DID! Likewise, Japan, Australia, or South Korea. In fact, speaking as President of the United States of America, by far the Most Powerful Country Anywhere in the World…

Without doubt, these countries have memories of Iraq and Afghanistan, which were multi-national efforts (and largely failures in terms of becoming unanticipated ‘forever wars’ and quagmires).

Macron: France Won’t Join Trump’s Hormuz Ops

President Emmanuel Macron has just slammed the door on Trump in a huge way, though he did so in his classic meager and weak, somewhat ambiguous fashion.

He said Tuesday that though France will not immediately take part in efforts to militarily unblock the Hormuz Strait, it will continue to prepare for a potential future coalition that could provide freedom of navigation once the conflict ends.

“We are not party to the conflict and therefore France will never take part in operations to open or liberate the Strait of Hormuz in the current context,” Macron said at the start of a cabinet meeting.

As a reminder, Trump on Monday said of Macron: “I have spoken to him. On a scale of 0 to 10, he’s been an eight. Not perfect, but it’s France…” And the US president added, “I think he’s going to help. I spoke to him yesterday. I don’t do a hard sell on them because my attitude is that we don’t need anybody. We’re the strongest nation in the world. We have the strongest military by far in the world.”

Expanding Lebanon War: IDF Issues Widest Evacuation Order Since 2006

A new – or perhaps it should be renewed – ground war between Israel and Lebanon has fully opened, also as Beirut continues to get hit from the air. Israel told residents of southern Lebanon that its military would be conducting airstrikes against Hezbollah. The area under immediate evacuation orders is seeing the biggest Israeli-drive evacuation going all the way back to the major 2006 war.

“Remaining south of the Zahrani River could endanger your life and the lives of your families,” the Israeli military’s Arabic spokesman Avichay Adraee said on X. Israeli officials have meanwhile signaled readiness to fight in Lebanon even beyond the conclusion of the Iran war, which itself hasn’t been subject of a timeline.

⚡️U.S KC-135 refuelling tanker seen in the background of an interception above Israel pic.twitter.com/orFDwBFztZ

— War Monitor (@WarMonitors) March 17, 2026

Reminder: Trump-Xi Meeting Delayed 

Via Rabobank note: Trump has announced his long-awaited looming trip to Beijing is unlikely to happen because of the war: he wants a delay of a month or so. In short, only if the war ends without a US retreat can Trump and Xi discuss the US-China relationship. 

The messaging is crystal clear. So is that China can get energy from the Western hemisphere to replace Iran and the GCC if needed. So is the US ability to then put a foot on the hosepipe in certain geopolitical circumstances – as it is now doing with Iran at far greater distance, risk, and cost. But that doesn’t mean it isn’t part of a future deal. 

Trump said when asked about the trip Monday, “I don’t know, we’re working on that right now.” He added: “We’re speaking to China. I’d love to, but because of the war, I want to be here. I have to be here, I feel.”

Israel Claims Big Decapitation Strike: Larijani & Basij Chief

Israel is making another big ‘decapitation strike’ claim, saying it has taken out Iran’s top security believed to be effectively running the country and the war, Ali Larijani. Israel further announced early Tuesday the longtime head of the Basij militia, Gholamreza Soleimani, was also killed.

If true it would mark one of the most significant blows to Tehran’s leadership since the war began. But in classic fog-of-war fashion, Tehran is pushing back against Israeli statements. Tehran has presented a handwritten message attributed to him, though not exactly what passes for proof of life.

The note was released ahead of funeral ceremonies for Iranian sailors killed in a recent US strike, and urges citizens to show support for the national ‘martyrs’ – but in the end does little to clarify whether Larijani is alive or dead. Just days ago he was seen marching defiantly in the streets of Tehran with other high-ranking officials as US-Israeli bombs fell not too far away.

The IDF announcement proclaiming his alleged death:

🔴Ali Larijani, Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council and the regime’s effective leader, has been eliminated.

Throughout the years, Larijani was considered one of the most veteran and senior figures within the Iranian regime leadership, and was a close associate… pic.twitter.com/kBIgSSGBm0

— Israel Defense Forces (@IDF) March 17, 2026

“The martyrdom of the brave members of the Navy of the Army of the Islamic Republic in Dena is part of the sacrifices of the proud nation that has emerged in this time of struggle against international oppressors,” Larijani wrote, in what could prove to be his last message. If he is deceased, he is likely to quickly be replaced.

No Peace Yet: Must Be ‘Brought to Their Knees’

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian is calling on citizens to flood the streets for mass funerals of sailors killed when the IRIS Dena was sunk off the coast of Sri Lanka. Enemies “should know that in the shadow of the name of each of these high-ranking martyrs, thousands of other brave men will rise,” he said.

Most importantly, he announced that Islamic Republic leadership is rejecting any talk of de-escalation. Iran will exact a steep cost against its aggressors, he vowed. It is not “the right time for peace until the United States and Israel are brought to their knees, accept defeat, and pay compensation,” a senior official was quoted in Al Jazeera as saying, describing the position as “very tough and serious.”

Iran’s messaging here has been consistent. On Monday when President Trump claimed Tehran was “talking” – and later there were reports of text messages between Iran’s FM Araghchi and White House envoy Steve Witkoff, Iran’s government was quick to call this fake news.

“We don’t ask for ceasefire, but this war must end, in a way that our enemies never again think about repeating such attacks,” Araghchi has said. Central Israel has also continued to see inbound projectiles, also from Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Iran: Hormuz Isn’t Officially Shut, But it Controls Who Gets Through

Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei pushed back on blockade claims, while signaling Tehran is effectively managing traffic through the critical chokepoint – as it tries to play nice with its BRICS allies but tries to keep the leverage on Washington, its allies, and the global economy.

“Ships from some countries passed through the Strait of Hormuz in coordination with the Islamic Republic of Iran,” he said, framing Iran’s position as ultimately as the gatekeeper of the world’s most important oil artery. “Iran has always been the guardian of the Strait of Hormuz and the safe passage of ships.”

⚡️CENTCOM publishes new footage of strikes in Iran pic.twitter.com/xU1kGunLtA

— War Monitor (@WarMonitors) March 17, 2026

This could include pledges for Indian, Chinese, and Russian safe passage – and there’s been evidence of some of these getting through, just as in the Houthis Red Sea crisis of last year.

On Tuesday, Iranian parliamentary speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf said: “The Strait of Hormuz cannot be the same as before and return to its previous conditions,” adding that “there is no longer any security.”

Bombardment of US Bases, Embassy, Oil Sites

“We have no hostility toward regional countries,” Baghad also said. “What we target are American bases and assets.” This after a likely Iranian-made drone hit the US Embassy in Baghad to start of this week, and also a drone slammed into the central Al-Rasheed Hotel in Baghdad’s highly protected Green Zone.

Air defenses in the Green Zone engaged incoming threats, but to no avail – the drones still got through. At the same time, energy infrastructure is increasingly in the crosshairs.

⚡️C-RAM fireworks over Baghdad continue pic.twitter.com/laf1QXOS56

— War Monitor (@WarMonitors) March 16, 2026

A drone attack forced the shutdown of a gas field in Abu Dhabi, while a tanker was reportedly hit by an “unknown projectile” near a UAE oil port – only adding more pressure to already volatile markets and pushing oil prices higher.

C-RAM System reportedly seen in action, but is Green Zone’s defense crumbling?

An Iranian-backed militia successfully used a (likely fiber optic) FPV drone to carry out a reconnaissance mission through the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad yesterday.

Seen here, the drone flies unchallenged through the embassy complex for nearly two minutes. pic.twitter.com/S1Ky3eVUv0

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) March 17, 2026

“Nor Our War”: NATO Allies

Still, amid all this, NATO allies are holding back – perhaps confused and lacking confidence in President Trump’s daily shifting rhetoric, and as sometimes Trump issues contradictory messaging on the same day, or even in the very same presser.

“What does … Donald Trump expect a handful or two handfuls of European frigates to ​do in the Strait of Hormuz that the powerful US Navy cannot do?” German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius told reporters on Monday. “This is not our war, we have not started it.“

What the Western allies see…

CNN airs compilation of Trump’s contradictions from his afternoon event pic.twitter.com/hzMWWRuSW4

— Headquarters (@HQNewsNow) March 16, 2026

Some leading NATO powers have made clear they won’t directly support any military effort to unblock the strait – including Germany, Italy, and Spain.

President Trump himself has conceded this week of Western partners: “Some are very enthusiastic about ​it, and some aren’t. Some are countries that we’ve helped for many, many years. We’ve ⁠protected them from horrible outside sources, and they weren’t that enthusiastic. And the level of enthusiasm matters to ​me.” Naturally they might be looking back only to last year and the Gaza War, when the major US-led naval coalition in the Red Sea struggled to halt Houthi attacks on global shipping, resulting in a stalemate and uneasy status quo where the Iran-linked Houthis built a lot of leverage.

Iran’s “New Phase Of Oil War”

Bloomberg Opinion and commodities columnist Javier Blas has written on X. “Further ominous developments today. For the first time, Iran successfully targeted oil and gas production facilities, rather than refining, terminals, and storage,”

Blas listed the IRGC’s attacks on Gulf oil and gas facilities:

• Oil and gas field in the UAE (Shah) hit

• Oil field in Iraq (Majnoon) attacked

• Plus Saudi Arabia saw large drone swarms

He explained that these attacks suggest “Iran has started a new phase of its oil war” against Gulf states aligned with the US. “Tehran is clearly going after the Strait of Hormuz bypass route, with Fujairah (UAE) coming under attack. But so far, the Saudi pipeline bypass hasn’t been attacked, and neither the Yemeni Houthis have tried to close the Red Sea,” Blas said. Brent crude has jumped more than 40% since the start of Operation Epic Fury in late February, but out-of-control spikes in crude markets have largely been capped so far by the IEA’s 32-nation “historic” emergency SPR release. Read our fuller analysis here.

Iraq Negotiates With Iran To Reopen Vital Oil Shipping Route

The federal Iraqi government is in contact with Iran to persuade Tehran to allow some Iraqi oil tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, Iraq’s Oil Minister Hayyan Abdul Ghani said on Tuesday. 

“There is communication with Iran regarding allowing the passage of some Iraqi oil tankers,” the minister said in statements carried by the Iraqi News Agency (INA). 

Iraq, unlike Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), doesn’t have any options – even partial – to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, which has been closed for over two weeks now, forcing Baghdad to slash oil production as storage sites and tankers available in the Gulf filled up.

Iraq was the first to announce more than a week ago it was slashing crude oil production amid the de facto blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.