Tesla shares have rebounded sharply, rising around 60% since their March lows, driven by renewed investor enthusiasm surrounding the company’s upcoming robotaxi launch and progress on its humanoid robots. The March low coincided with remarks by unhinged leftist Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, who cheerleaded the demise of Tesla when shares cratered.
Despite the surge in bullish investor sentiment since mid-April, fueled by anticipation of Tesla’s long-awaited robotaxi launch in Austin, Texas, in the coming days and visible progress on its Optimus humanoid robot, UBS maintains a cautious stance on the stock.
UBS analysts Joseph Spak and others published a note on Tuesday, focusing on its proprietary UBS EV Consumer Survey, in which the latest survey found declining global interest in Tesla’s EVs across all major regions (U.S., China, Europe), as well as growing pressure across its core automotive business, where fundamentals continue to deteriorate.
Spak outlined results from each key market:
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In the U.S., we see Tesla saturation (~48% US BEV share), a limited vehicle lineup and affordability are concerns.
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In China, we see intense competition and Tesla is no longer seen as the technology leader.
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In Europe, we believe there may have been brand damage from Musk’s political involvement
“Overall, we remain cautious on Tesla stock,” Spak said in the note. UBS maintains a Sell rating with a 12-month price target of $190, implying significant downside from current levels. Shares were trading around $366 in premarket on Wednesday.
Spak sees through the robotaxis and humanoid robots hype, telling clients:
“We understand that there is enthusiasm over robotaxis and humanoid robots, but the automotive business faces mounting challenges and a source of earnings/cash flow may be at risk with removal of California waiver. Musk has indicated the value of Tesla is in AV and humanoid robots. This may be true. But given the deteriorating outlook for the auto business , that means the implied valuation assigned to these ventures is already quite robust.”
According to the survey of consumers around the world, only 36% of respondents globally would consider purchasing a Tesla—down from 39% a year ago. The share of consumers selecting Tesla as their top BEV (battery electric vehicle) choice fell even more sharply, from 22% to 18%.
Here are the highlights of the survey:
Globally, 36% of consumers would consider a Tesla, down from 39% last year. As a consumer’s top BEV choice, Tesla is down to 18%, from 22% last year. The top choice decline was fairly prominent across the 3 major regions for Tesla:
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In the U.S. top choice went to 29% vs. 38% last year (and note vs. 2024 BEV share of 48%).
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In China, Tesla as a top choice was down to 14% from 18% last year and now behind both BYD and Xiaomi. More broadly, China consumers prefer to buy domestic OEM brands vs TSLA, although they do favor TSLA over other foreign OEM brands.
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In Europe, top choice went to 15% from 20% last year. In Europe, we also saw brand consideration for Audi and BMW surpass TSLA.
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The survey also asked about autonomous/ADAS. Importance of ADAS as a feature held steady. When it comes to paying for autonomous features, only 1~12% would pay more than $7.6k upfront for autonomous features. TSLA’s FSD currently costs $8k to buy outright. Meanwhile, only ~18% would pay >$100/ month for autonomous features; FSD subscription is currently $99/month.
It’s hard to ignore the shifting sentiment in the global EV survey data, which shows consumer interest steadily moving away from Tesla and toward Chinese rival BYD.
Tesla’s favorability in the U.S. has remained stagnant at around 50% for several years.
In China, respondents have been increasingly favoring domestic brands over Tesla.
In Europe, respondents were also beginning to shift to domestic brands.
The survey found that youngsters around the world are increasingly favoring Tesla. This bodes well for future demand.
Interest in owning a vehicle that can drive autonomously differs per country.
Contrary to UBS analyst Joseph Spak’s warning of a “deteriorating outlook” for Tesla’s automotive business, one user on X pointed to fresh sales data from China showing the Model Y ranked as the best-selling mid-size SUV for the week beginning May 19.
Tesla’s Model Y is the best selling car in the list of Top 10 weekly sales of mid-size SUVs for the week May.19-May.25 in China🔥
With 7400 units delivered, we need a telescope to see the runner up, Tiguan L by Volkswagen, with 2900 units 🔭 pic.twitter.com/Ci8q4xc0qo
— TCMesla (@TCMesla) May 27, 2025
Tip Ranks places a 47% success rate on Spak’s calls.
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Tyler Durden
Wed, 05/28/2025 – 14:40
