For those tracking war maps from both sides of the conflict as well as geo-location data for troop positions, the failure of Ukraine’s offensive in Kursk is not a surprise. The movement of their forces stalled out only a couple weeks after their initial push into the territory and the Russians have been grabbing back pieces of land ever since. However, for those people only listening to establishment news sources, the retaking of Kursk might come as a shock.
Russian troops have made significant advances from the western flank of Ukrainian positions, and reports indicate a threat of Ukrainian troops being encircled.
The Telegraph, usually a platform for pro-Ukraine propaganda, notes that sources from both sides confirmed the Russian breakthrough, which occurred during the heaviest fighting on Russian territory since Ukraine began its cross-border incursion in August.
DeepState, a Ukrainian military blogger, said that there was a risk that Russian forces could encircle Ukrainian forces, although they later said that the front lines in Kursk were “difficult but under control”. “The enemy pushed through the left flank of the Kursk grouping of Ukrainian defense forces,” the blogger said. “We are on the verge of another mess due to the repetition of mistakes.” (Keep in mind, major military “bloggers” in this conflict tend to have connections to government and military officials who give them battlefront information)
It should be noted that DeepState has avoided changing his war maps to reveal significant Russian gains in Kursk for many weeks. It is likely that he has been dissuaded from doing so by officials in Kyiv in order to present a facade of success in Kursk. The fact that he is admitting to those gains now suggests the situation is dire for Ukraine.
Russian military bloggers said that marines from the Pacific Fleet’s 155th Guards Brigade had been involved in fighting around the Glushkovsky district of Kursk, where most Ukrainian forces had allegedly been overrun.
Fears of potential encirclement of Ukrainian troops in Kursk come only days after US officials claimed they could hold the ground for months.
The strategic sense behind Ukraine’s Kursk operation remains a mystery. Vladimir Zelensky claims the attack was designed to draw Russian troops away from the eastern front in order to slow down their non-stop bulldozing of Ukraine’s defensive positions. Many of these towns and the defensive works around them have been held since 2014. In other words, the fact that Russia is taking these positions so quickly indicates that something has gone very wrong for Ukraine (And we all know what the problem is – lack of manpower).
As with all war, the losing side tends to implode all at once after a long period of seemingly static and secure defenses.
If the goal was really to divert the Russians away from the east, then the Kursk offensive achieved nothing. The Kremlin actually increased their forces and attacks in the region after the Kursk event. John Foreman, a former British military attaché in both Moscow and Kyiv, states:
“Russian progress actually picked up after Kursk…Politically, the Kursk offensive didn’t change much in Washington DC or Europe. I’m still unconvinced of its strategic merit.”
Kyiv’s recent declaration of a mandatory evacuation of more than 37,000 civilians from the Sumy Oblast region just across the border from Kursk provides more evidence that the area is about to be retaken by Russia. It seems like the Kursk incursion was fuel for the western media hype machine, but other than that the effort served no strategic purpose.
Tyler Durden
Tue, 10/15/2024 – 02:45
