According to UN estimates released last year, Europe already hitĀ its peak populationĀ in 2021 and has slowly started its population decline.
How did this happen, and can this trend reverse?
To answer that question, Visual Capitalist’s Pallavi Rao tracks the total fertility rate of every European country perĀ UN estimatesĀ for 2025.
ā¹ļø TheĀ fertility rateĀ measures the average # of children a woman in a specific area will have over the course of her lifetime.
From this number, demographers and statisticians can make assumptions about population replacement and future trends.
Ranked: European Countries by Total Fertility Rates 2025
As it happens,Ā 2.1Ā is a key threshold for fertility rates.
At this level, an areaās population remains stable. Above it, itās likely to grow (barring war, disease, and famine). And below it, itās likely to decline (barring immigration).
| Rank | Country | ISO Code | Fertility Rate (2025) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | š²šØ Monaco | MCO | 2.1 |
| 2 | š²šŖ Montenegro | MNE | 1.8 |
| 3 | š§š¬ Bulgaria | BGR | 1.7 |
| 4 | š²š© Moldova | MDA | 1.7 |
| 5 | š·š“ Romania | ROU | 1.7 |
| 6 | š«š· France | FRA | 1.6 |
| 7 | š¹š· TĆ¼rkiye | TUR | 1.6 |
| 8 | š®šŖ Ireland | IRL | 1.6 |
| 9 | šøš® Slovenia | SVN | 1.6 |
| 10 | šøš° Slovakia | SVK | 1.6 |
| 11 | š±š® Liechtenstein | LIE | 1.5 |
| 12 | š¬š§ UK | GBR | 1.5 |
| 13 | š½š° Kosovo | XKX | 1.5 |
| 14 | š©š° Denmark | DNK | 1.5 |
| 15 | šµš¹ Portugal | PRT | 1.5 |
| 16 | š§š¦ Bosnia & Herzegovina | BIH | 1.5 |
| 17 | ššŗ Hungary | HUN | 1.5 |
| 18 | š®šø Iceland | ISL | 1.5 |
| 19 | š·šø Serbia | SRB | 1.5 |
| 20 | šš· Croatia | HRV | 1.5 |
| 21 | šØšæ Czechia | CZE | 1.5 |
| 22 | š²š° North Macedonia | MKD | 1.5 |
| 23 | š·šŗ Russia | RUS | 1.5 |
| 24 | š©šŖ Germany | DEU | 1.5 |
| 25 | š³š± Netherlands | NLD | 1.4 |
| 26 | šøšŖ Sweden | SWE | 1.4 |
| 27 | šØš Switzerland | CHE | 1.4 |
| 28 | š³š“ Norway | NOR | 1.4 |
| 29 | š±šŗ Luxembourg | LUX | 1.4 |
| 30 | š§šŖ Belgium | BEL | 1.4 |
| 31 | šŖšŖ Estonia | EST | 1.4 |
| 32 | šØš¾ Cyprus | CYP | 1.4 |
| 33 | š±š» Latvia | LVA | 1.4 |
| 34 | š¬š· Greece | GRC | 1.3 |
| 35 | š¦š± Albania | ALB | 1.3 |
| 36 | š¦š¹ Austria | AUT | 1.3 |
| 37 | šµš± Poland | POL | 1.3 |
| 38 | š«š® Finland | FIN | 1.3 |
| 39 | š§š¾ Belarus | BLR | 1.2 |
| 40 | šŖšø Spain | ESP | 1.2 |
| 41 | š±š¹ Lithuania | LTU | 1.2 |
| 42 | š®š¹ Italy | ITA | 1.2 |
| 43 | šøš² San Marino | SMR | 1.2 |
| 44 | š²š¹ Malta | MLT | 1.1 |
| 45 | š¦š© Andorra | AND | 1.1 |
| 46 | šŗš¦ Ukraine | UKR | 1.0 |
| N/A | šŖšŗ Europe | EUR | 1.4 |
Looking at the data in the table above, almost all of Europe is below population replacement rate.
MonacoĀ is the only exception, and is likely skewed upwards due to its small size (39,000 residents). Any small change in the number of babies born there can dramatically affect the fertility rate.
Zooming out, Northern and Western Europe have had below replacement fertility rates since the 1960s. Time and immigration helped delay immediate effects but four decades of falling fertility rates are finally having an impact.
Unless immigration patterns change significantly (and these new immigrants have more children), itās unlikely this trend will reverse.
Want to see how these figures can affect each countryās population in the future? Check out:Ā Europeās Population Forecast to 2100Ā for a breakdown.
Tyler Durden
Thu, 03/06/2025 – 02:45
