Unleashing LNG: Trump’s Geopolitical Triumph Demands A New Realism

Authored by Ronald Beaty via RealClearEnergy,

By February 21, 2025, the trumpet has sounded: Donald Trump’s second term has begun, and with it, the swift reversal of Biden’s LNG export pause. This isn’t mere policy tinkering—it’s a seismic recalibration of America’s role in the global energy chessboard. 

For conservatives, it’s a clarion call to reclaim energy dominance, secure jobs, and outmaneuver rivals. Yet, as the United States barrels toward an LNG export renaissance, a fresh realism must guide us—one that marries unapologetic ambition with a clear-eyed reckoning of trade-offs. RealClearEnergy readers—policymakers, industry titans, and patriots—deserve a vision that celebrates this moment while charting its complexities.

The Triumph of American Shale

Let’s start with the stakes. Biden’s 2024 LNG export freeze was a sop to climate ideologues, stalling terminals like CP2 and choking billions in Gulf Coast investment. Trump’s Day One reversal—likely formalized by now—unleashes a torrent: the U.S., already the world’s top LNG exporter at 11.9 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d), could double capacity by 2035, hitting 30 Bcf/d with 12 new projects. This isn’t just gas—it’s leverage. Europe, unshackled from Russia’s grip since Ukraine’s transit deal died January 1, 2025, will guzzle 20 Bcf/d by decade’s end. Asia, led by China’s 100 million metric tons per annum (MTPA) appetite, follows suit. The American Petroleum Institute pegs this at 1.5 million jobs—welders in Louisiana, traders in Houston, families thriving.

Conservatives see the gospel here: free markets, not green dogma, deliver prosperity. LNG exports, projected to rival oil’s $200 billion annual haul, turbocharge GDP while slashing allies’ reliance on despots. Russia’s Gazprom, bled dry at 5% of global LNG share, can’t compete with Sabine Pass’s bounty. Qatar scrambles as U.S. shale undercuts its Hormuz Strait chokehold. This is Reagan’s “peace through strength” reborn—energy as a weapon of liberty, not coercion.

A New Realism: Beyond Blind Boosterism

Yet, triumphalism alone won’t suffice. LNG’s ascent demands a conservatism that’s muscular but mature—call it “shale realism.” First, the price paradox: flooding markets with 100 MTPA could drop global LNG from $15/MMBtu to $8 by 2032, a boon for buyers but a squeeze on producers. Henry Hub, at $2.50/MMBtu today, might climb to $4 as exports drain stocks, testing Trump’s “cheap energy” pledge. Conservatives mustn’t flinch—higher domestic prices are the cost of global primacy, a trade-off worth every penny if it bankrupts Putin’s war chest.

Second, the tariff tightrope. Trump’s 10% EU levy threat—60% for China—could backfire. Europe might stomach it, grateful for gas over Russian blackmail, but China’s retaliation could cap U.S. LNG at 15 MTPA, rerouting flows to Japan or India. Here’s a novel fix: tie LNG deals to trade pacts—discounts for tariff waivers. Imagine Beijing swapping solar panel exports for $10/MMBtu gas, a détente that cools trade wars while greening China’s grid. It’s pragmatic, not pandering—a conservative win through cunning.

The Climate Conundrum: LNG as Bridge, Not Bogeyman

Enter the green chorus: LNG’s methane leaks—1% of output, per the Environmental Defense Fund—could add 100 million tons of CO2-equivalent annually at scale. Trump’s likely methane rule rollback stokes their ire, and they’re not wrong to flag emissions. But here’s where shale realism shines: LNG isn’t the enemy of climate goals—it’s the midwife. Displacing Europe’s coal (30% cleaner) and China’s (55% of its mix), U.S. gas could cut global emissions by 500 million tons yearly, dwarfing leaks. By 2040, this bridge could halve coal’s share, buying time for fusion or next-gen solar.

Critics cry “fossil fuel lock-in,” but that’s a strawman. LNG’s flexibility—unlike rigid pipelines—lets renewables scale without blackouts. Picture Germany: its coal plants fade as U.S. gas fills gaps, wind turbines humming by 2035. Conservatives should own this narrative: LNG isn’t denialism—it’s discipline, a transition fuel that starves tyrants while science catches up.

Geopolitical Judo: Flipping the Board

Now, the grand play. Trump’s LNG surge isn’t just supply—it’s strategy. Europe, at 40% of exports by 2030, becomes a U.S. vassal in energy, not ideology—NATO’s glue thickens without a bullet fired. China, hooked on 20% of our LNG, trades coal smog for American molecules, a dependency Trump can tweak with tariffs or diplomacy. Russia, limping at 20 billion cubic meters to Europe, pivots to a discounted Siberia 2—China pays $8/MMBtu, not $12, bleeding Moscow dry.

Here’s an original twist: LNG as soft power. Trump could launch an “Energy Freedom Initiative”—subsidized exports to Africa’s microgrids, outpacing China’s $50 billion oil grab. Kenya’s 100 MW solar pairs with U.S. gas backups, electrifying villages without Beijing’s strings. By 2040, America owns the developing world’s energy soul—capitalism’s quiet coup.

The Balanced Ledger: Risks and Remedies

Shale realism demands candor. Oversupply risks stranding $50 billion in terminals if Europe goes 60% renewable by 2035—Cheniere’s bet could sour. Methane’s shadow looms; a voluntary industry standard—say, 0.5% leakage caps—could blunt critics without EPA meddling. Trade wars might shrink exports to 20 Bcf/d, but a “LNG bloc” with Japan and India hedges that bet.

Conservatives mustn’t dodge these. Champion LNG, yes, but innovate: tax credits for methane capture, not just drilling. Pair exports with fusion R&D—$1 trillion by 2040, privately led. This isn’t capitulation—it’s command of the future.

The Verdict: A Legacy Worth Forging

Trump’s LNG reversal is a conservative dream: jobs, power, liberty. By 2035, 35 Bcf/d could flow—40% to Asia, 30% to Europe—redefining energy’s map. Prices might settle at $10/MMBtu, coal withers, and Russia fades. Yet, shale realism elevates this beyond bravado. It’s a chance to wield LNG as a scalpel—cutting rivals, bridging climate gaps, and electrifying allies—all while fueling America’s heartland.

RealClearEnergy’s readers know the drill: energy isn’t sentiment—it’s strategy. Trump 2.0 can etch a legacy not just of dominance, but of dexterity. Let’s seize it, eyes wide open, and shape a world where American gas lights the way.

Ronald Beaty is a former Barnstable County Commissioner, and a lifelong resident of Cape Cod, Massachusetts.