US Signals Willingness To Greenlight Export Of F-16 Jets To Ukraine

The old Arabian proverb says, “If the camel once gets his nose in the tent, his body will soon follow.” This certainly applies to the way the US and its Western partners have gone about providing Ukraine with heavier and more advanced weaponry.

The “debate” over Western jets for Ukraine is now taking the route that the prior move to send tanks did: at first leaders say “no” and then it’s “we’re mulling it” and this is followed soon with “training” and then…

But now that proverbial camel is making his way into the tent rather quickly…

“The Biden administration has signaled to European allies in recent weeks that the US would allow them to export F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine, sources familiar with the discussions said, as the White House comes under increasing pressure from members of Congress and allies to help Ukraine procure the planes amid intensifying Russian aerial attacks,” CNN reports.

This is precisely how it happened before the US signed off on sending M1 Abrams tanks to Kiev. Germany and the UK were the first to agree to send the Leopard II and Challenger 2 main battle tank, respectively. This “consensus” then allowed President Biden to reverse his stance on tanks, after voicing prior concerns of potential unnecessary direct escalation with Russia. CNN details further of ongoing deliberations: 

Administration officials are not aware, however, of any formal requests by any allies to export F-16s, and State Department officials who would normally be tasked with the paperwork to approve such third-party transfers have not been told to get to work, officials said.

A handful of European countries have a supply of the US-made F-16s, including the Netherlands, which has signaled a willingness to export some of them to Ukraine. But the US would have to approve that third party transfer because of the jets’ sensitive US technology.

“While the US remains reluctant to send any of its own F-16s to Kyiv, US officials told CNN that the administration is prepared to approve the export of the jets to Ukraine if that is what allies decide to do with their supply.” So perhaps the trigger hasn’t been pulled just yet, but it looks imminent – perhaps just weeks away.

But the key will be that European countries need approval even to begin training pilots directly on F-16 technology. Russian media is taking note, as the following in TASS details: 

Ukrainian pilots are not allowed to train on F-16 fighter jets owned by European countries, as Washington remains unconvinced that Kiev needs the expensive aircraft, the New York Times reported on Wednesday, citing a senior Ukrainian official.

Despite the fact that some European countries have signaled that they are ready to send F-16s to Ukraine, authorities in Kiev will need approvals from the United States where the fighters were made. Without American consent, the training is likely to be limited to technical lessons and technical language only, the newspaper said.

The Biden administration is unconvinced that Ukraine needs the expensive jets. Besides, the United States does not want its highly restricted systems to be duplicated or fall into enemy hands. US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said on Wednesday that he had no update on F-16s.

Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte said on May 9 that his country is discussing the possibility of sending F-16 fighters to Ukraine with Great Britain, Denmark and “some other countries in Europe” and the United States. “An intensive dialogue” is underway, Rutte said.

The UK is among those countries already training Ukrainians on Western aircraft. The process could take at least many months, if not a year. But the Pentagon seems to be moving fast even on the training issue…

Scoop: @YahooNews has obtained a U.S. Air Force assessment of how two Ukrainian pilots did in a 3-week course on F-16s at Morris Air National Guard Base in Feb/March. Conclusion: it’ll take 4 months to train them, not 18, as the Pentagon has said: https://t.co/sY3WSOuum0

— Michael Weiss (@michaeldweiss) May 18, 2023

As we described previously, a French official addressed the serious hurdles facing any future plan to given Ukrainians jets. “Before delivering a plane, you need to train pilots. It takes a long time. Ukrainian pilots are not trained to use French systems. They don’t speak French, let alone English,” an unnamed Elysée official told Politico.

Meanwhile, there’s reportedly movement on this taking place at the G7 Friday…

BREAKING: President Joe Biden informed G7 leaders on Friday that the US will support a joint effort with allies and partners to train Ukrainian pilots on F-16s, a senior administration official tells CNN.

— Natasha Bertrand (@NatashaBertrand) May 19, 2023