With homebuilder sentiment collapsing, it should be no surprise that analysts expected housing starts and permits to tumble in October, and they were right with starts dropping 4.2% MoM and permits down 2.4% MoM…
Source: Bloomberg
That pushed the total number (SAAR) of building permits (forward looking) to its lowest since Aug 2020…
Source: Bloomberg
Breaking down the numbers, we see single-family housing starts plunge 6.1% MoM and single-family permits tumbled for the 8th straight month. Multi-family starts and permits also both fell (-0.5% MoM and-1.9% MoM respectively)…
Source: Bloomberg
Single-Family starts (SAAR) are at the lowest since May 2020…
Finally, given the further plunge in homebuilder future sales expectations, it appears housing starts have a long way to fall before any balance is found…
Source: Bloomberg
And that means dramatic pain ahead (and even, perversely, higher home prices as supply is constrained).
Tyler Durden
Thu, 11/17/2022 – 08:42
