Vatican Countdown: Here Are The Candidates For New Pope

Update (1628ET): 

Pope Francis’ death earlier this morning triggered centuries-old traditions and rules within the Roman Catholic Church, including mourning and the selection of a new leader. 

Here are the key steps in selecting the new pope: 

Vacancy of the Papal See:

• The process begins when the papacy becomes vacant, typically due to the death of the reigning pope or, more rarely, resignation (e.g., Pope Benedict XVI in 2013).

• The Camerlengo, a cardinal appointed to manage the Church’s temporal affairs during the vacancy, verifies the pope’s death (historically by tapping the forehead and calling his baptismal name) and assumes interim administrative duties.

Preparation for the Conclave:

• The College of Cardinals gathers in Rome for General Congregations, daily meetings to handle Church business and prepare for the conclave. These meetings include all cardinals, but only those under 80 years old can vote.

• The conclave must begin 15–20 days after the vacancy, allowing time for cardinals to travel, though this can be adjusted slightly.

• The Sistine Chapel is prepared as the voting venue, secured to ensure secrecy, with electronic jamming devices to prevent leaks.

The Conclave:

• Eligible Voters: Only cardinals under 80 years old at the start of the vacancy can participate (maximum 120 electors, though the number varies; currently ~130 eligible cardinals exist, per Vatican estimates).

• Seclusion: Cardinals are sequestered in the Domus Sanctae Marthae (a Vatican residence) and the Sistine Chapel, swearing oaths of secrecy. No external communication is allowed.

Voting Process:

• Voting occurs in the Sistine Chapel, with two rounds in the morning and two in the afternoon each day.

• Cardinals write a name on a ballot, fold it, and place it in a chalice, saying, “I call as my witness Christ the Lord who will be my judge.”

• A two-thirds majority (e.g., 80 of 120 votes) is required to elect a pope.

• If no candidate achieves this, the ballots are burned with a chemical to produce black smoke (indicating no decision). If a candidate secures two-thirds, the ballots are burned to produce white smoke, signaling a new pope.

Scrutiny and Counting:

• Three scrutineers (elected cardinals) count votes, with infirmarii collecting ballots from any sick cardinals. Ballots are burned after each session.

Deadlock Provisions:

• After ~13 days (33–34 ballots) without a two-thirds majority, cardinals may vote to reduce the requirement to a simple majority or hold a runoff between the top two candidates (per Universi Dominici Gregis).

Acceptance and Announcement:

• If elected, the candidate is asked by the Dean of the College of Cardinals: “Do you accept your canonical election as Supreme Pontiff?” and, if yes, “By what name will you be called?”

• The new pope chooses a papal name (e.g., John Paul, Francis) and is vested in papal garments.

• The Cardinal Protodeacon announces “Habemus Papam” (“We have a pope”) from the balcony of St. Peter’s Basilica, introducing the new pope’s name and title.

• The pope imparts the Urbi et Orbi blessing to the crowd in St. Peter’s Square.

Who are the contenders to be the next pope (list courtesy of The Guardian):

Pietro Parolin, 70, Italy

Seen as a moderate “continuity candidate”, Parolin was close to Francis. He has been the Vatican’s secretary of state since 2013, playing a key role in diplomatic affairs, including delicate negotiations with China and governments in the Middle East. He is regarded as a reliable and trusted papal representative by secular diplomats. In 2018, he was the driving force behind a controversial agreement with the Chinese government on the appointment of bishops, criticised by some as a sellout to the communist regime. Parolin’s critics see him as a modernist and a pragmatist who places ideology and diplomatic solutions above hard truths of the faith. To his supporters, he is a courageous idealist and avid proponent of peace.

Luis Antonio Tagle, 67, the Philippines

Tagle, a former archbishop of Manila, would be the first Asian pope, the region with the fastest-growing Catholic population. At one time he was considered to be Francis’s preferred successor and a strong contender to continue the late pope’s progressive agenda, but recently appears to have fallen out of favour. He has suggested that the Catholic church’s stance on gay and divorced couples is too harsh, but has opposed abortion rights in the Philippines.

Peter Turkson, 76, Ghana

Turkson would be the first black pope in centuries. He has been vocal on issues such the climate crisis, poverty and economic justice while affirming the church’s traditional positions on the priesthood, marriage between a man and a woman, and homosexuality. However, his views on the latter have loosened and he has argued that laws in many African countries are too harsh. He has spoken out on corruption and human rights.

Péter Erdő, 72, Hungary

A leading conservative candidate, Erdő has been a strong advocate for traditional Catholic teachings and doctrine. He would represent a big shift away from Francis’s approach. He is widely regarded as a great intellect and a man of culture. Erdő was a favourite of the late cardinal George Pell who believed he would restore the rule of law in the post-Francis Vatican. In 2015, Erdő appeared to align himself with Hungary’s nationalist prime minister, Viktor Orbán, when he opposed Francis’s call for churches to take in migrants.

Matteo Zuppi, 69, Italy

Appointed a cardinal by Francis in 2019, Zuppi is considered to be on the progressive wing of the church, and would be expected to continue Francis’s legacy, sharing the late pope’s concern for the poor and marginalised. He is (relatively) liberal on same-sex relationships. Two years ago, Francis made him the Vatican peace envoy for Ukraine, in which capacity he visited Moscow to “encourage gestures of humanity”. While there he met Patriarch Kirill, the leader of the Russian Orthodox church and Vladimir Putin’s ally. He has also met Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Ukraine’s president.

José Tolentino Calaça de Mendonça, 59, Portugal

Tolentino is one of the youngest potential successors to Francis, which could count against him – ambitious cardinals may not want to wait another 20 or 30 years before another shot at the top job. He has attracted controversy for sympathising with tolerant views on same-sex relationships and allying himself with a feminist Benedictine sister who favours women’s ordination and is pro-choice. He was close to Francis on most issues, and argues that the church must engage with modern culture.

Mario Grech, 68, Malta

Grech was seen as a traditionalist but began to embrace more progressive views after Francis was elected in 2013. His supporters argue that his changing opinions show his capacity for growth and change. He has criticised European political leaders who sought to limit the activities of NGO ships and has expressed support for female deacons.

Pierbattista Pizzaballa, 60, Italy

Since 2020, Pizzaballa has been the Latin patriarch of Jerusalem, a crucial role in advocating for the Christian minority in the Holy Land. After Hamas’s attack on Israel on 7 October 2023, Pizzaballa offered himself as a hostage in exchange for children who were being held by Hamas in Gaza. He visited Gaza in May 2024 after months of negotiations. He would be expected to continue some aspects of Francis’s leadership of the church, but has made few public statements on controversial issues.

Robert Sarah, 79, Guinea

Sarah is a traditional, Orthodox cardinal who at one time sought to present himself as a “parallel authority” to Francis, according to a Vatican observer. In 2020, he co-authored a book with the then retired Pope Benedict defending clerical celibacy that was seen as a challenge to Francis’s authority. He has denounced “gender ideology” as a threat to society, and has spoken out against Islamic fundamentalism. Like Turkson, he could make history as the first black pope in centuries.

Could American Cardinal Raymond Burke be in the running?

American Cardinal Raymond Burke, one of the top contenders to become the next Pope:

“Limiting the number of Muslims allowed to immigrate to traditionally Christian nations would be a prudent decision on the part of politicians. It’s to be patriotic and responsible.

You don’t… pic.twitter.com/QrBhghSC24

— Dr. Maalouf ‏ (@realMaalouf) April 21, 2025

The latest from Polymarket shows that Pietro Parolin is in the lead with 37% and Luis Antonio Tagle is in second place with 26%. 

Everyone will soon become an expert at Pope selection. Let the games begin. 

*    *    * 

Vatican News reports that Pope Francis died at the age of 88 at 7:35 a.m. local time (1:35 a.m. EST). Earlier this year, he experienced a severe health crisis that resulted in over a month of hospitalization due to double pneumonia.

Cardinal Kevin Farrell, Camerlengo of the Apostolic Chamber, announced the death of the 266th pope via this statement:

“Dearest brothers and sisters, with deep sorrow I must announce the death of our Holy Father Francis. At 7:35 this morning, the Bishop of Rome, Francis, returned to the house of the Father. His entire life was dedicated to the service of the Lord and of His Church. He taught us to live the values of the Gospel with fidelity, courage, and universal love, especially in favor of the poorest and most marginalized. With immense gratitude for his example as a true disciple of the Lord Jesus, we commend the soul of Pope Francis to the infinite merciful love of the One and Triune God.”

Vatican News provided more color on the Pope’s deteriorating health leading up to his death on Easter Monday:

• The Pope was admitted to the Agostino Gemelli Polyclinic Hospital on Friday, February 14, 2025, after suffering from a bout of bronchitis for several days.

• Pope Francis’ clinical situation gradually worsened, and his doctors diagnosed bilateral pneumonia on Tuesday, February 18.

• After 38 days in hospital, the late Pope returned to his Vatican residence at the Casa Santa Marta to continue his recovery.

To his 1.3 billion followers, Francis signaled a more inclusive stance toward LGBTQ+ Catholics and advocated for open borders in the United States.

The Pope is Appalled there are Discussions About Closing the US Border – He Says we Need to Open the Doors to Illegal Aliens

“The solution is migration. To open the doors to migration…. For an immigration policy to be good, it must have four things:

1. The illegal alien must… pic.twitter.com/EJmGVwvfPw

— MJTruthUltra (@MJTruthUltra) May 22, 2024

Francis was the first pope from Latin America, the first Jesuit to become the head of the Catholic Church, and the first to take the name Francis, inspired by St. Francis of Assisi, who gave up his vast amounts of wealth to live in poverty.

Throughout his tenure (March 13, 2013 to April 21, 2025), Francis also spoke about multiple recurring themes, including compassion, humility, and advocacy. He told followers, “My people are poor, and I am one of them.” 

On Sunday, U.S. Vice President JD Vance met with Francis to exchange Easter greetings. 

“I know you have not been feeling great, but it’s good to see you in better health,” Vance told the Pope, adding, “Thank you for seeing me.”

The White House on Monday morning issued condolences on X: 

Rest in Peace, Pope Francis. pic.twitter.com/8CGwKaNnTh

— The White House (@WhiteHouse) April 21, 2025

The death of Francis sets in motion a chain of centuries-old procedures to secure a new pope. Cardinal Kevin Farrell, the Vatican camerlengo, will act as the head of the Vatican in the meantime.

The question is whether the cardinals who choose Francis’ successor will read the latest cultural shifts across the West and pick a more traditional pope or continue down the path of progressive inclusiveness.