A 50bps rate-cut six weeks before the election – not political at all.
And now Fed Chair Powell has to explain why he cut rates again despite surging macro data (growth scares completely erased and reignited inflation fears), record high stocks and soaring Treasury yields.
There was barely a blip of reaction across markets after the hawkish statement, so it will come down to what Powell says… though Dec rate-cut odds are sliding…
Will Powell use the presser to jawbone expectations of the Fed’s rate-cut trajectory down now that (inflationary) Trump will be in The White House?
UBS says it is likely that Chair Powell will be peppered with questions on the pace of rate cuts to come, the potential for skips, and maybe even where rates will ultimately end up.
We expect the Chairs tone remains similar to that of the September meeting and that any guidance will remain data dependent…
We doubt he will commit to anything at this juncture, neither another rate cut in December nor skipping that meeting.
He might say the FOMC would consider lowering rates at the next meeting, but stop there.
Watch live here (due to start at 1430ET):
Tyler Durden
Thu, 11/07/2024 – 14:25
