We Didn’t Start The Fire

By Peter Tchir of Academy Securities

There is so much going on in the world that it is difficult to keep track. On Wednesday Academy published its latest Around the World. By Friday, we needed to publish a SITREP on the U.S. Airstrikes in Syria. This was all on the back of The Middle East – A Difficult Week and Increasing Our Risk Assessment due to The Middle East. Between Academy’s Annapolis Geopolitical Summit, speaking at AFP, and countless video conferences, the Geopolitical Intelligence Group has barely been able to come up for air. That is all separate from trying to track the bond market in the Fed Has Lost Control of the Narrative.

The pace has been frantic:

• We are increasingly worried about the risk of escalation in the Middle East.

• We are increasingly worried about the risks globally.

  • We often find ourselves trying to squeeze in important topics like trade, commodities, India, coups in Africa (remember when that was headline news just a few weeks ago?) and now something called the Second Thomas Shoal.

In any case, the pace of these meetings, the urgency, and the sheer number of topics to discuss has left me with this Billy Joel song in my head (apparently the Fall Out Boy version is also very good).

The chorus, if nothing else, resonates with what is going on:

We didn’t start the fire

It was always burning, since the world’s been turning

We didn’t start the fire

No, we didn’t light it, but we tried to fight it

Apologies to Billy Joel and the readers for the artistic liberties that I had to take (the coup was in Niger, not Nigeria), my attempt to keep some of the original lines (where they fit), and my need to force a few personal notes into the remake of this song.

Maybe it isn’t “macro” or “geopolitical” research per se, but there are worse songs to have stuck in your head, and it does capture the frantic pace of issues that the world is facing. It is also a decent reminder that variations of these issues have existed for decades, but we’ve still made it through.

We didn’t start the fire

It was always burning, since the world’s been turning

We didn’t start the fire

No, we didn’t light it, but we tried to fight it

 

Taylor Swift, Scary Day, Red lines, Gitmo Bay

NATO, Hezbollah, India on the rise

Wagner Group, President Xi, Blood diamonds, EVs

North Korea, South Korea, Inflation too damn high

 

Smart phones, Smart bombs, Stupid decisions, Pandemonium

Putin, for his big lie, how many have to die?

Plastic straws, Vaccines, England’s got a new king

Jimmy Buffet, Matthew Perry, Alex Trebek, goodbye

 

We didn’t start the fire

It was always burning, since the world’s been turning

We didn’t start the fire

No, we didn’t light it, but we tried to fight it

 

Expanding BRICs, Hamas, Cyber, Legal grass

Old Yeller, Coachella, Bama rush on TikTok

Iron Dome, Evita Peron, Tuscany, Macron

Crimea falls, Drones in the sky

 

Einstein, Katniss Everdeen, Meadowlands has no winning team

Shoots a rocket, Peter Tchir, China not buying our bonds

Gaga, Gaza, Erdogan, Zelensky

Kirk in Space, Melrose Place, Trouble in the Suez

 

We didn’t start the fire

It was always burning, since the world’s been turning

We didn’t start the fire

No, we didn’t light it, but we tried to fight it

 

Climate change, Surprise attack, Steph Curry, Bivouac

AI, Chandrayaan, Russia crashes on the Moon

Lebanon, Second Thomas Shoal, San Diego baseball

On campus homicide, children are so horrified

 

Luddite folly, Taiwan, Space monkey, Wikipedia

College hoops, NLA, TPP is a no-go

U2, Mexican cartels, Debt ceilings and shutdowns

Silver or lead, Skynet, Violence in the Congo

 

We didn’t start the fire

It was always burning, since the world’s been turning

We didn’t start the fire

No, we didn’t light it, but we tried to fight it

 

AFP, NFP, Jolts, What can the Fed do?

Taiwan, Sanction, Ukrainian invasion

Coup in Nigeria, Syria, Social media mania

Dollar, Euro, Yen, and now the Yuan

Pope Francis, Complex, Have we reached our apex?

Shinzo Abe – blown away, what else do I have to say?

 

We didn’t start the fire

It was always burning, since the world’s been turning

We didn’t start the fire

No, we didn’t light it, but we tried to fight it

 

KSA, MBS, President Xi back again

Streaming, Screaming, Hormuz Strait, Punk rock

Vegan, Reagan, Palestine, Democracy on the decline

Ayatollah’s in Iran, No one’s in Afghanistan

 

“Wheel of Fortune”, Pat Sajak, Lithium dioxide

Foreign debts, Homeless vets, COVID, Frack, Fighter jets

Fentanyl on the shore, China’s under CPP law

Shock and awe, Chip wars, I can’t take it anymore…

 

We didn’t start the fire

It was always burning, since the world’s been turning

We didn’t start the fire

No, we didn’t light it, but we tried to fight it

 

We didn’t start the fire

It was always burning, since the world’s been turning

We didn’t start the fire

No, we didn’t light it, but we tried to fight it

Hopefully things calm down on the geopolitical front, but with so much to unpack, that seems like wishful thinking. On top of it all, we have a Fed meeting this week! I’m in the “no chance of a hike” camp and expect some admission that certain things are out of their control (meaning what is going on globally, not the bond markets, despite those getting out of their control as well).