China may be conducting a major, unannounced war drill aimed at isolating Taiwan, with more than 100 naval and coast guard vessels deployed across the Western Pacific, according to a new assessment.
Published Friday by Institute for the Study of War researcher Jackson Karas, the report identified two main clusters of Chinese ships: naval task forces operating between Taiwan and Guam, potentially positioned to deter outside military assistance, and naval and coast guard vessels forming a closer ring around Taiwan.
That positioning, according to Karas, suggests Beijing is conducting a rehearsal for cutting the island off from external support during a conflict:
The scale of these deployments suggests that the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) is conducting a major exercise that simulates isolating Taiwan.
The number of vessels involved and the geographic range of their deployment are greater than the PLA’s most recent exercise around Taiwan — Justice Mission 2025. The coordination of surface forces from the Eastern, Northern, and Southern Theater Commands is rare.
Karas cited satellite imagery that showed China’s most powerful aircraft carrier, Fujian, departing its base on Hainan last Tuesday, possibly heading toward southern Taiwan.
The analyst continued:
The PRC’s decision to not announce a major exercise departs from recent precedent and may aim to create the impression that the PLA can isolate Taiwan at will. The PRC normally announces and names major military exercises targeted against Taiwan and has done so for the last four such exercises.
The PRC has yet to announce a major military exercise at the time of writing despite the scale of the movements observed in the West Pacific. The PRC may seek to represent the presence of its forces surrounding Taiwan and in the West Pacific as routine, rather than exceptional. The PRC may also aim to demonstrate an ability to rapidly transition from a peacetime posture to combat operations, decreasing the time adversaries have to detect PLA preparations for a blockade or invasion of Taiwan.
ISW-CDOT has assessed that the PRC aims to erode Taiwanese confidence in its own defense and in US willingness to come to its aid. The PLA’s recent movements around Taiwan and throughout the West Pacific likely serve the dual purpose of preparing for a real isolation campaign while aiming to create informational effects that erode Taiwan’s confidence in its own defense and the ability of its allies and partners to support it.
When Democrats take control of Congress in early January, Taiwan is likely to become a renewed flashpoint in US-China relations. The big question is how Beijing will use Trump’s remaining two years in office and whether it sees an opportunity to intensify pressure on the island or whether it’ll finally make its move. The latest military deployments suggest that risk is becoming harder to ignore.
